基于GIS技术的台风风暴潮灾害风险评估
|
摘要
全球变暖背景下,海平面上升,极端天气事件和气象灾害频发。由台风引起的风暴潮灾害越来越频繁,对我国沿海地区构成严重的威胁,需要进一步增强台风风暴潮灾害防灾减灾能力,提高台风风暴潮灾害风险评估的准确性和实用性。同时,基于数值模拟方法对台风风暴潮进行预报的技术不断进步、自然灾害研究理论的不断深入和完善以及GIS技术得到广泛发展与应用,为台风风暴潮灾害风险评估提供了新的理论基础和技术支持,同时也促使关于台风风暴潮灾害风险评估的研究出现了一个新的研究趋势,即运用GIS技术、融合多种数学统计分析理论、结合数值模拟技术与自然灾害风险评估方法进行台风风暴潮灾害风险评估。
本文以浙江省台州市椒江地区为例,在分析台州市沿海区域的地理、水文、社会经济特点的基础上,重点讨论了台风风暴潮数值模型的构建和台州市台风风暴潮风险评估的具体实现流程。利用台风风暴潮灾害风险评估模型,结合数值模拟技术和GIS技术对台州市椒江区域的台风风暴潮灾害危险度、脆弱性和防灾减灾能力进行了分析,并在此基础上运用GIS软件进行进一步的淹没分析、叠置分析以及格网拟合计算,最后结合遥感影像绘制出台州市台风风暴潮灾害高分辨率风险区划图。
研究结果表明：在GIS技术支持下,利用数值模拟和遥感等多种技术进行台风风暴潮灾害风险评估,能够绘制出精确度更高、实用性更好的高分辨率风险区划图。因而,本文所作的研究可以为台州市有关风暴潮减灾部门及时有效地进行防潮抗灾部署提供决策支持,为台州市规划部门进行城市规划提供参考依据,为保险行业相关技术分析提供理论帮助,同时可为我国其它地区的台风风暴潮防灾减灾工作提供借鉴。
Sea level rising, extreme weather event and meteorological disasters frequent occurrence under global warming condition. Storm surge disaster caused by typhoon frequent occurrence and serious threat to the coastal areas of China. It is necessary to further enhance the capability of typhoon storm surge disaster prevention and reduction, and improve the correctness and practicability of typhoon storm surge risk assessments. Also, technical advances in typhoon storm surge forecast by numerical simulation methods, and the natural disaster theory have been continuously improved, and geographic information system technology has been developed and applied in wide. All this provided new theory and technology to evaluate typhoon storm surge disaster risk, and it also caused a new research tendency to study the typhoon storm surge disaster risk assessment, that is using the GIS technology and fusion of mathematical and statistical analysis theories and with numerical simulation and natural disaster risk assessments to study the storm surge risk assessment.
The paper takes Jiaojiang area of Taizhou of Zhejiang province for study, after analyzed the characteristics of physical geography, hydrological, socio-economic in coastal region of Taizhou. Then puts the focus on how to modeling typhoon storm surge risk assessment model and the concrete steps to apply typhoon storm surge risk assessment model in Taizhou. With the typhoon storm surge risk assessment model and researched the typhoon storm surge disaster risk, vulnerability and capacity of disaster prevention and mitigation in coastal region of Taizhou by numerical simulation and GIS technology. Then, in support of GIS software and using the submerging analysis, overlay analysis and grid computing, got the typhoon storm surge risk zoning map of Taizhou with high resolution on the remote sensing image.
Then, the research in the paper could provide decision support for the department of storm surge disaster reduction to deploy disaster prevention and reduction with timely and effectively, and provide academic reference for the planning department of Taizhou, and provide theory help for the insurance industry to analysis, and also could provide reference theory for other coastal region in China to the typhoon storm surge disaster prevention and reduction.
本文以浙江省台州市椒江地区为例,在分析台州市沿海区域的地理、水文、社会经济特点的基础上,重点讨论了台风风暴潮数值模型的构建和台州市台风风暴潮风险评估的具体实现流程。利用台风风暴潮灾害风险评估模型,结合数值模拟技术和GIS技术对台州市椒江区域的台风风暴潮灾害危险度、脆弱性和防灾减灾能力进行了分析,并在此基础上运用GIS软件进行进一步的淹没分析、叠置分析以及格网拟合计算,最后结合遥感影像绘制出台州市台风风暴潮灾害高分辨率风险区划图。
研究结果表明：在GIS技术支持下,利用数值模拟和遥感等多种技术进行台风风暴潮灾害风险评估,能够绘制出精确度更高、实用性更好的高分辨率风险区划图。因而,本文所作的研究可以为台州市有关风暴潮减灾部门及时有效地进行防潮抗灾部署提供决策支持,为台州市规划部门进行城市规划提供参考依据,为保险行业相关技术分析提供理论帮助,同时可为我国其它地区的台风风暴潮防灾减灾工作提供借鉴。
Sea level rising, extreme weather event and meteorological disasters frequent occurrence under global warming condition. Storm surge disaster caused by typhoon frequent occurrence and serious threat to the coastal areas of China. It is necessary to further enhance the capability of typhoon storm surge disaster prevention and reduction, and improve the correctness and practicability of typhoon storm surge risk assessments. Also, technical advances in typhoon storm surge forecast by numerical simulation methods, and the natural disaster theory have been continuously improved, and geographic information system technology has been developed and applied in wide. All this provided new theory and technology to evaluate typhoon storm surge disaster risk, and it also caused a new research tendency to study the typhoon storm surge disaster risk assessment, that is using the GIS technology and fusion of mathematical and statistical analysis theories and with numerical simulation and natural disaster risk assessments to study the storm surge risk assessment.
The paper takes Jiaojiang area of Taizhou of Zhejiang province for study, after analyzed the characteristics of physical geography, hydrological, socio-economic in coastal region of Taizhou. Then puts the focus on how to modeling typhoon storm surge risk assessment model and the concrete steps to apply typhoon storm surge risk assessment model in Taizhou. With the typhoon storm surge risk assessment model and researched the typhoon storm surge disaster risk, vulnerability and capacity of disaster prevention and mitigation in coastal region of Taizhou by numerical simulation and GIS technology. Then, in support of GIS software and using the submerging analysis, overlay analysis and grid computing, got the typhoon storm surge risk zoning map of Taizhou with high resolution on the remote sensing image.
Then, the research in the paper could provide decision support for the department of storm surge disaster reduction to deploy disaster prevention and reduction with timely and effectively, and provide academic reference for the planning department of Taizhou, and provide theory help for the insurance industry to analysis, and also could provide reference theory for other coastal region in China to the typhoon storm surge disaster prevention and reduction.
引文
[1]王喜年.风暴潮预报知识讲座[J].海洋预报.2001,5(18)：70-77.
[2]赵庆良,许世远,王军等.沿海城市风暴潮灾害风险评估研究进展[J].地理科学进展.2007,26(5)：30-40.
[3]王国栋,康建成,闫国东.沿海城市风暴潮灾害风险评估研究述评[J].灾害学.1993,25(3)：114-118.
[4]许小峰,顾建峰,李永平.海洋气象灾害[M].北京：气象出版社,2009.
[5]乐肯堂.我国风暴潮灾害风险评估方法的基本问题[J].海洋预报.1998,3(15)：38-44.
[6]工喜年.风暴潮预报知识讲座第一讲[J].海洋预报.2001,1(18)：73-77.
[7]叶琳,于福江.我国风暴潮灾的长期变化与预测.海洋预报.2002,19(1)：89-96.
[8]中国国家海洋局,中国海洋灾害公报[OL].1989-2009,http://www.soa.gov.cn/soa/hygb/zhgb/A010902index 1.html.
[9]张俊香,李平日,黄光庆,张虹鸥.基于信息扩散理论的中国沿海特大台风暴潮灾害风险分析[J].热带地理.2007,27(1)：11-14.
[10]张继权,李宁.主要气象灾害风险评价与管理的数量化方法及其应用[M].北京：北京师范大学出版社,2007.
[11]Remy U G. Tran boundary Risks:How Governmental and Non-Governmental Agencies Work Together. In: Risk and Governance, Program of World Congress on Risk, Brussels, Belgium,2003.
[12]张俊香,卓莉,刘旭拢.广东省台风暴潮灾害社会经济系统脆弱性分析——模糊数学方法.自然灾害学报,2010,19(1)：116-121.
[13]Jelesnianski C P, Jay chen and Wilson A. Shaffer. SLOSH:Sea, Lake and Overland Surges FromHurricanes, In:NOAA Technical Report NWS48, United States Department of Commerce, NOAA,NWS, Silver Springs,1992.
[14]Hubbert G D, Mclnnes K L. A storm surge inundation model for coastal planning and impact studies. Coastal Research,1999a,15,168—185.
[15]Hubert G D, Mcinnes K L. Modelling storm surges and coastal ocean flooding, In:B. J. Noye (ed.), Modelling coastal sea processes, World Scientific Publishing Co.,1999b,159 - 187.
[16]Mcinnes K L, Walsh K J E, Hubbert G D,et al. Impact of Sea-level Rise and Storm Surges on a Coastal Community. Natural Hazards,2003,30:187-207.
[17]Watson C, Johnson E. A Modular Object Oriented Model for Meteorological Hazard Assessment,1998.
[18]Watson C, Johnson E. Design, Implementation and Operation of a Modular Integrated Tropical Cyclone Hazard Model. Caribbean Disaster Mitigation Project. Published in the proceedings of the 23rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology,10-15 Jan 1999, Dallas, TX by the AMS, Boston MA.
[19]尹庆江,吴少华,王喜年.美国SLOSH模式在我国的应用——杭州湾台风风暴潮的数值模拟.海洋预报,1997,14(1)：70-74.
[20]LisaR. Kleinosky, Brent Yarnal and Ann Fisher et al. Vulnerability of Hampton Roads, Virginia to Storm-Surge Flooding and Sea-level Rise. Natural Hazards,2006.
[21]张俊香,卓莉,刘旭拢.广东省台风暴潮灾害社会经济系统脆弱性分析——模糊数学方法.自然灾害报,2010,19(1)：116-121.
[22]Willian J P(向立云等译).自然灾害风险评价与减灾政策[M].北京：地震出版社,1993.
[23]冯利华.风暴潮等级和灾情的定量表示法[J].海洋学报,1986,8(3).
[24]梁海燕,邹欣庆.海口湾沿岸风暴潮风险评估[J].海洋学报,2005,27(5)：22-29.
[25]李京.空间信息技术与灾害管理[R].首都师范大学学术报告厅,2010.
[26]张继权,李宁.主要气象灾害风险评价与管理的数量化方法及其应用[M].北京：北京师范大学出版社,2007.
[27]SAVAGE, STEPHEN H. Assessing departures from log-normality in the rank-size rule[J].Journal ofArchaeological Science,1997,24(4):233-244.
[28]史培军,李宁,叶谦,等.全球环境变化与综合灾害风险防范研究[J].地球科学进展,2009,24(4)：428-434.
[29]张继权,冈田宪夫,多多纳裕一.综合自然灾害风险管理——全面整合的模式与中国的战略选择[J].自然灾害学报.2006,5(1)：29-37.
[30]邓聚龙.灰色系统基本方法[M].武昌：华南理工大学出版社,1988.
[31]党建武.神经网络技术及应用[M].北京：中国铁道出版社,2000.
[32]张延欣,王明涛.灰色综合评价法在后勤绩效评估中的应用[J].郑州航空上业管理学院学报.1995,(4)： 40-42.
[33]岁云.灾害评价初探[J].灾害学,1987,2(3)：10-14.
[34]黄崇福. 自然风险分析的基本原理[J].自然灾害学报,1999,8(2)：21-30.
[35]冯利华.基于信息扩散理论的气象要素风险分析[J].气象科技,2000,(1)：27-29.
[36]邬伦,刘瑜,张晶等.地理信息系统——原理、方法、和应用[M].2001.
[37]滕骏华,吴玮. 基于GIS的风暴潮减灾辅助决策信息系统[J].自然灾害学报.2007,16(2)：16-21.
[38]黄崇福.自然灾害风险评价理论与实践[M].北京：科学出版社,2005.
[39]李鑫.我国风暴潮灾害及其防灾减灾对策初探[J].水利科技与经济,2006,12(2)：112-113.
[40]冯士筰.风暴潮导论[M].北京：科学出版社,1982.
[41]陈述彭.地理系统与地理信息系统[J].地理学报.1991,46(1)：1-7.
[42]黄杏元,马劲松等著.地理信息系统概论[M].北京：高等教育出版社,2001.
[43]李贵荣,郭建平.地理信息系统的研究现状及发展趋势[J].南方冶金学院学报.2003,24(2)：10-14
[44]曹瑜,胡光道.地理信息系统在国内外应用现状[J].计算机与现代化.1999,61(3)：22-31
[45]朱建荣著.海洋数值计算方法和数值模式[M].北京：海洋出版社,2003.
[46]王喜年.第四讲风暴潮的数值预报[J].海洋预报.1987,4(2)：70-75.
[47]张超.地理信息系统实习教程[M].北京：高等教育出版社,2000.
[48]吴一林.台州统计年鉴2010[M].北京：中国统计出版社,2010.
[49]施素芬.台州城市的发展与气候[J].浙江气象.2002,23(4)：15-18.
[50]刘汉华,唐伟民.近50年台州气温变化特征及可能原因分析[A].第六届长三角气象科技论坛论文集[C],2009.
[51]闫勇,麦苗,吴以喜.台州湾海域水文泥沙环境及海床冲淤演变[A].第十四届中国海洋(岸)工程学术讨论会论文集(下册)[C],2009.
[52]章宏伟.椒江河口悬沙运动的二维数值模拟[D].浙汀大学,2006.
[53]温克刚.中国气象灾害大典-浙江卷[M].气象出版社,2008.
[54]林全泓.强风浪过程中近岸泥沙运动的数值模拟[D].天津大学,2004.
[55]孙平锋.椒江口二维潮流泥沙数学模型研究及其应用[D].浙江大学,2006.
[56]Mark Cobb, Cheryl Ann Blain, A Coupled Hydrodynamic-Wave Model for Simulating Wave and Tidally-Driven 2D Circulation in Inlets[C], Malcolm L. Spaulding, E-estuarine and Coastal Modeling, Proceedings of the 7th Internet-ional Conference,ASCE,Reston,VA,2002,725-744.
[57]Mark Cobb, Cheryl Ann Blain. Simulating Wave-Tide Induced Circulation in Bay St. Louis, MS with a Coupled Hydrodynamic-Wave Model[C],2002:1234-1240.
[58]Edwards, C.R. and C.A. Blain,. An operational test of the ADCIRC model in the western north Atlantic ocean[C].NRL Formal Report,NRL/FR/7320-01-1005,2002.
[59]张庆河,侯凤林,夏波,张金凤,杨华.黄骅港外航道淤积的二维数学模拟[J].中国港湾建设.2006(5)：6-9.
[60]DR.R.A. LUETTICH,DR.,J.J. WESTERINK.ADCIRC A (PARALLEL) ADVANCED CIRCULATION MODEL FOR OCEANIC,COASTAL AND ESTUARINE WATERS [M],2000.
[61]工培涛,于福江,刘秋兴,董剑希.福建沿海精细化台风风暴潮集合数值预报技术研究及应用[J].海洋预报.2010,27(5)：7-15
[62]王喜年.风暴潮预报知识讲座[J].海洋预报,2001,18(2)：70-77.
[63]张文艺.GIS缓冲区和叠加分析[D].中南大学,2007年.
[64]许树柏.层次分析法原理[M].天津：天津大学出版社,1988.
[65]王莲芬,许树柏.层次分析法引论[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,1999.
[66]蒋艳凰.遥感图像高精度并行监督分类技术研究[D].国防科学技术大学,2004.
[67]陈香,李思琦.福建省台风灾害风险区划研究[J].莆田学院学报.2010,17(5)：96-100.
[68]刘德辅,庞亮,谢波涛等.中国台风灾害区划及设防标准研究[J].中国科学技术.2008,38(5)：698-707.
[69]中国海事服务网[OL].1989-2011, http://www.cnss.com.cn/tide search.php
[70]包澄澜.海啸及风暴潮灾害简介[J].东北地震研究.2005,21(2)：9-151.
[71]蒋艳凰.遥感图像高精度并行监督分类技术研究[D].国防科学技术大学,2004.
[72]周成虎,万庆,黄诗峰等.基于GIS的洪水灾害风险区划研究[J].地理学报.2000,55(1)：15-24.
[73]钟晋阳.基于GIS的浙江省洪水灾害风险区划[D].新疆农业大学,2009.
[2]赵庆良,许世远,王军等.沿海城市风暴潮灾害风险评估研究进展[J].地理科学进展.2007,26(5)：30-40.
[3]王国栋,康建成,闫国东.沿海城市风暴潮灾害风险评估研究述评[J].灾害学.1993,25(3)：114-118.
[4]许小峰,顾建峰,李永平.海洋气象灾害[M].北京：气象出版社,2009.
[5]乐肯堂.我国风暴潮灾害风险评估方法的基本问题[J].海洋预报.1998,3(15)：38-44.
[6]工喜年.风暴潮预报知识讲座第一讲[J].海洋预报.2001,1(18)：73-77.
[7]叶琳,于福江.我国风暴潮灾的长期变化与预测.海洋预报.2002,19(1)：89-96.
[8]中国国家海洋局,中国海洋灾害公报[OL].1989-2009,http://www.soa.gov.cn/soa/hygb/zhgb/A010902index 1.html.
[9]张俊香,李平日,黄光庆,张虹鸥.基于信息扩散理论的中国沿海特大台风暴潮灾害风险分析[J].热带地理.2007,27(1)：11-14.
[10]张继权,李宁.主要气象灾害风险评价与管理的数量化方法及其应用[M].北京：北京师范大学出版社,2007.
[11]Remy U G. Tran boundary Risks:How Governmental and Non-Governmental Agencies Work Together. In: Risk and Governance, Program of World Congress on Risk, Brussels, Belgium,2003.
[12]张俊香,卓莉,刘旭拢.广东省台风暴潮灾害社会经济系统脆弱性分析——模糊数学方法.自然灾害学报,2010,19(1)：116-121.
[13]Jelesnianski C P, Jay chen and Wilson A. Shaffer. SLOSH:Sea, Lake and Overland Surges FromHurricanes, In:NOAA Technical Report NWS48, United States Department of Commerce, NOAA,NWS, Silver Springs,1992.
[14]Hubbert G D, Mclnnes K L. A storm surge inundation model for coastal planning and impact studies. Coastal Research,1999a,15,168—185.
[15]Hubert G D, Mcinnes K L. Modelling storm surges and coastal ocean flooding, In:B. J. Noye (ed.), Modelling coastal sea processes, World Scientific Publishing Co.,1999b,159 - 187.
[16]Mcinnes K L, Walsh K J E, Hubbert G D,et al. Impact of Sea-level Rise and Storm Surges on a Coastal Community. Natural Hazards,2003,30:187-207.
[17]Watson C, Johnson E. A Modular Object Oriented Model for Meteorological Hazard Assessment,1998.
[18]Watson C, Johnson E. Design, Implementation and Operation of a Modular Integrated Tropical Cyclone Hazard Model. Caribbean Disaster Mitigation Project. Published in the proceedings of the 23rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology,10-15 Jan 1999, Dallas, TX by the AMS, Boston MA.
[19]尹庆江,吴少华,王喜年.美国SLOSH模式在我国的应用——杭州湾台风风暴潮的数值模拟.海洋预报,1997,14(1)：70-74.
[20]LisaR. Kleinosky, Brent Yarnal and Ann Fisher et al. Vulnerability of Hampton Roads, Virginia to Storm-Surge Flooding and Sea-level Rise. Natural Hazards,2006.
[21]张俊香,卓莉,刘旭拢.广东省台风暴潮灾害社会经济系统脆弱性分析——模糊数学方法.自然灾害报,2010,19(1)：116-121.
[22]Willian J P(向立云等译).自然灾害风险评价与减灾政策[M].北京：地震出版社,1993.
[23]冯利华.风暴潮等级和灾情的定量表示法[J].海洋学报,1986,8(3).
[24]梁海燕,邹欣庆.海口湾沿岸风暴潮风险评估[J].海洋学报,2005,27(5)：22-29.
[25]李京.空间信息技术与灾害管理[R].首都师范大学学术报告厅,2010.
[26]张继权,李宁.主要气象灾害风险评价与管理的数量化方法及其应用[M].北京：北京师范大学出版社,2007.
[27]SAVAGE, STEPHEN H. Assessing departures from log-normality in the rank-size rule[J].Journal ofArchaeological Science,1997,24(4):233-244.
[28]史培军,李宁,叶谦,等.全球环境变化与综合灾害风险防范研究[J].地球科学进展,2009,24(4)：428-434.
[29]张继权,冈田宪夫,多多纳裕一.综合自然灾害风险管理——全面整合的模式与中国的战略选择[J].自然灾害学报.2006,5(1)：29-37.
[30]邓聚龙.灰色系统基本方法[M].武昌：华南理工大学出版社,1988.
[31]党建武.神经网络技术及应用[M].北京：中国铁道出版社,2000.
[32]张延欣,王明涛.灰色综合评价法在后勤绩效评估中的应用[J].郑州航空上业管理学院学报.1995,(4)： 40-42.
[33]岁云.灾害评价初探[J].灾害学,1987,2(3)：10-14.
[34]黄崇福. 自然风险分析的基本原理[J].自然灾害学报,1999,8(2)：21-30.
[35]冯利华.基于信息扩散理论的气象要素风险分析[J].气象科技,2000,(1)：27-29.
[36]邬伦,刘瑜,张晶等.地理信息系统——原理、方法、和应用[M].2001.
[37]滕骏华,吴玮. 基于GIS的风暴潮减灾辅助决策信息系统[J].自然灾害学报.2007,16(2)：16-21.
[38]黄崇福.自然灾害风险评价理论与实践[M].北京：科学出版社,2005.
[39]李鑫.我国风暴潮灾害及其防灾减灾对策初探[J].水利科技与经济,2006,12(2)：112-113.
[40]冯士筰.风暴潮导论[M].北京：科学出版社,1982.
[41]陈述彭.地理系统与地理信息系统[J].地理学报.1991,46(1)：1-7.
[42]黄杏元,马劲松等著.地理信息系统概论[M].北京：高等教育出版社,2001.
[43]李贵荣,郭建平.地理信息系统的研究现状及发展趋势[J].南方冶金学院学报.2003,24(2)：10-14
[44]曹瑜,胡光道.地理信息系统在国内外应用现状[J].计算机与现代化.1999,61(3)：22-31
[45]朱建荣著.海洋数值计算方法和数值模式[M].北京：海洋出版社,2003.
[46]王喜年.第四讲风暴潮的数值预报[J].海洋预报.1987,4(2)：70-75.
[47]张超.地理信息系统实习教程[M].北京：高等教育出版社,2000.
[48]吴一林.台州统计年鉴2010[M].北京：中国统计出版社,2010.
[49]施素芬.台州城市的发展与气候[J].浙江气象.2002,23(4)：15-18.
[50]刘汉华,唐伟民.近50年台州气温变化特征及可能原因分析[A].第六届长三角气象科技论坛论文集[C],2009.
[51]闫勇,麦苗,吴以喜.台州湾海域水文泥沙环境及海床冲淤演变[A].第十四届中国海洋(岸)工程学术讨论会论文集(下册)[C],2009.
[52]章宏伟.椒江河口悬沙运动的二维数值模拟[D].浙汀大学,2006.
[53]温克刚.中国气象灾害大典-浙江卷[M].气象出版社,2008.
[54]林全泓.强风浪过程中近岸泥沙运动的数值模拟[D].天津大学,2004.
[55]孙平锋.椒江口二维潮流泥沙数学模型研究及其应用[D].浙江大学,2006.
[56]Mark Cobb, Cheryl Ann Blain, A Coupled Hydrodynamic-Wave Model for Simulating Wave and Tidally-Driven 2D Circulation in Inlets[C], Malcolm L. Spaulding, E-estuarine and Coastal Modeling, Proceedings of the 7th Internet-ional Conference,ASCE,Reston,VA,2002,725-744.
[57]Mark Cobb, Cheryl Ann Blain. Simulating Wave-Tide Induced Circulation in Bay St. Louis, MS with a Coupled Hydrodynamic-Wave Model[C],2002:1234-1240.
[58]Edwards, C.R. and C.A. Blain,. An operational test of the ADCIRC model in the western north Atlantic ocean[C].NRL Formal Report,NRL/FR/7320-01-1005,2002.
[59]张庆河,侯凤林,夏波,张金凤,杨华.黄骅港外航道淤积的二维数学模拟[J].中国港湾建设.2006(5)：6-9.
[60]DR.R.A. LUETTICH,DR.,J.J. WESTERINK.ADCIRC A (PARALLEL) ADVANCED CIRCULATION MODEL FOR OCEANIC,COASTAL AND ESTUARINE WATERS [M],2000.
[61]工培涛,于福江,刘秋兴,董剑希.福建沿海精细化台风风暴潮集合数值预报技术研究及应用[J].海洋预报.2010,27(5)：7-15
[62]王喜年.风暴潮预报知识讲座[J].海洋预报,2001,18(2)：70-77.
[63]张文艺.GIS缓冲区和叠加分析[D].中南大学,2007年.
[64]许树柏.层次分析法原理[M].天津：天津大学出版社,1988.
[65]王莲芬,许树柏.层次分析法引论[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,1999.
[66]蒋艳凰.遥感图像高精度并行监督分类技术研究[D].国防科学技术大学,2004.
[67]陈香,李思琦.福建省台风灾害风险区划研究[J].莆田学院学报.2010,17(5)：96-100.
[68]刘德辅,庞亮,谢波涛等.中国台风灾害区划及设防标准研究[J].中国科学技术.2008,38(5)：698-707.
[69]中国海事服务网[OL].1989-2011, http://www.cnss.com.cn/tide search.php
[70]包澄澜.海啸及风暴潮灾害简介[J].东北地震研究.2005,21(2)：9-151.
[71]蒋艳凰.遥感图像高精度并行监督分类技术研究[D].国防科学技术大学,2004.
[72]周成虎,万庆,黄诗峰等.基于GIS的洪水灾害风险区划研究[J].地理学报.2000,55(1)：15-24.
[73]钟晋阳.基于GIS的浙江省洪水灾害风险区划[D].新疆农业大学,2009.
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |