济南市住区建成环境与家庭出行能耗关系的量化研究
|
摘要
现阶段，中国交通能耗已约占社会总能耗的20%，与工业能耗和建筑能耗共同组成我国三大能源消费大户。特别是近年来随着城市化水平的提高，私人汽车数量的增长，我国城镇家庭出行能耗持续攀升，从而使得控制家庭出行能耗显得尤为重要。与技术创新侧重于交通工具能源利用率的提高不同，受田园城市、邻里单位、新城市主义等一系列科学规划思想的启发，本研究侧重探讨通过提倡混合的土地开发、宜人的步行环境、便捷的公交系统等措施鼓励城市居民更多的采用绿色交通出行，降低家庭出行能耗。
本研究依托美国能源基金会资助项目“节能城市设计研究”课题（G-1008-13176），清华大学自主科研计划资助项目“华北南部地区特大城市节能住区形态与设计研究”课题（2011THZ0）和低碳能源大学联盟资助项目“低碳城市设计：从选择评估到政策实施”课题（2011LC002）完成。
全文基于2009-2010年济南市20个小区的家庭出行数据，应用多元线性回归方法，构建了以住区建成环境变量、家庭社会经济特征变量、家庭交通工具所有情况变量和家庭态度偏好变量为自变量，家庭出行能耗为因变量的统计模型，就住区建成环境与家庭出行能耗关系进行经验研究；希望从降低家庭出行能耗的视角，对现阶段住区规划设计提出有益的建议。其中，住区建成环境变量不仅采用了土地混合度、路网交叉口密度、目的地可达性等建成环境指标；还基于中国居住区规划背景，设计了公共服务设施步行可达性指标。家庭出行能耗也按照出行目的不同进行了更详细的划分，不仅包括家庭总出行能耗，还包括家庭通勤能耗、家庭非通勤能耗、家庭日常购物出行能耗和家庭使用服务设施出行能耗。模型显示，住区建成环境与家庭出行能耗相关。其中，与家庭社会经济特征的影响相比，住区建成环境对家庭总出行能耗和家庭通勤能耗的影响相对较小；而对家庭非通勤能耗、日常购物出行能耗和使用服务设施出行能耗的影响相对较大。故本研究建议，住区规划设计可以通过居住和就业平衡、宜人的步行环境、良好的公共服务设施可达性等设计策略，实现降低家庭出行能耗。
At present, the transportation sector has consumed nearly20%of total energy inChina, which is one of the3biggest energy users as the industry sector and buildingsector. And with the rapid economic growth and urbanization happened in lastdecades in China, household travel energy is playing a more and more important role inthe transportation sector. Different with the manufacturing industry has relied almostexclusively on technological advances to address the problem of energy crisis, the paperbelieves that we can reduce the household travel energy through outstanding builtenvironment design which may lead to more walking, bicycling or public transit travel,such as mixed landuse, comfortable pedestrian environment, convenient public transitsystem and so on.
This paper is supported by the “Making the Clean Energy City” Project funded bythe U.S. Energy Fundation, the “Energy-saving Neighborhood Urban Form Researechin Mega Cities in the Southern Region of North China” Project funded by theIndependent Research Fund of Tsinghua University, and the “Low Carbon UrbanDesign: From Options Assessment to Policy Implementation” Project funded by LowCarbon Energy University Alliance.
Based on the Jinan household data collected in2009and2010, a multipleregression model was applied to test the relationship between neighborhood builtenvironment and household travel energy. It concluded that neighborhood builtenvironment has a significant relationship with household travel energy. This researchfinding suggests that the neighborhood planning and design should limit the householdtravel energy by job-housing balance, walkable environment design, convenient publictransit and so on.
本研究依托美国能源基金会资助项目“节能城市设计研究”课题（G-1008-13176），清华大学自主科研计划资助项目“华北南部地区特大城市节能住区形态与设计研究”课题（2011THZ0）和低碳能源大学联盟资助项目“低碳城市设计：从选择评估到政策实施”课题（2011LC002）完成。
全文基于2009-2010年济南市20个小区的家庭出行数据，应用多元线性回归方法，构建了以住区建成环境变量、家庭社会经济特征变量、家庭交通工具所有情况变量和家庭态度偏好变量为自变量，家庭出行能耗为因变量的统计模型，就住区建成环境与家庭出行能耗关系进行经验研究；希望从降低家庭出行能耗的视角，对现阶段住区规划设计提出有益的建议。其中，住区建成环境变量不仅采用了土地混合度、路网交叉口密度、目的地可达性等建成环境指标；还基于中国居住区规划背景，设计了公共服务设施步行可达性指标。家庭出行能耗也按照出行目的不同进行了更详细的划分，不仅包括家庭总出行能耗，还包括家庭通勤能耗、家庭非通勤能耗、家庭日常购物出行能耗和家庭使用服务设施出行能耗。模型显示，住区建成环境与家庭出行能耗相关。其中，与家庭社会经济特征的影响相比，住区建成环境对家庭总出行能耗和家庭通勤能耗的影响相对较小；而对家庭非通勤能耗、日常购物出行能耗和使用服务设施出行能耗的影响相对较大。故本研究建议，住区规划设计可以通过居住和就业平衡、宜人的步行环境、良好的公共服务设施可达性等设计策略，实现降低家庭出行能耗。
At present, the transportation sector has consumed nearly20%of total energy inChina, which is one of the3biggest energy users as the industry sector and buildingsector. And with the rapid economic growth and urbanization happened in lastdecades in China, household travel energy is playing a more and more important role inthe transportation sector. Different with the manufacturing industry has relied almostexclusively on technological advances to address the problem of energy crisis, the paperbelieves that we can reduce the household travel energy through outstanding builtenvironment design which may lead to more walking, bicycling or public transit travel,such as mixed landuse, comfortable pedestrian environment, convenient public transitsystem and so on.
This paper is supported by the “Making the Clean Energy City” Project funded bythe U.S. Energy Fundation, the “Energy-saving Neighborhood Urban Form Researechin Mega Cities in the Southern Region of North China” Project funded by theIndependent Research Fund of Tsinghua University, and the “Low Carbon UrbanDesign: From Options Assessment to Policy Implementation” Project funded by LowCarbon Energy University Alliance.
Based on the Jinan household data collected in2009and2010, a multipleregression model was applied to test the relationship between neighborhood builtenvironment and household travel energy. It concluded that neighborhood builtenvironment has a significant relationship with household travel energy. This researchfinding suggests that the neighborhood planning and design should limit the householdtravel energy by job-housing balance, walkable environment design, convenient publictransit and so on.
引文
①图片来源：浙江江台州油荒持续续车主排队加油，今日黑龙江江，http://www.jjrhlj.com/，20111-12-05.
②图片来源：日本青森县，摄影影师：共同社，“iDaily每日环环球视野for iPPhone”，2012--03-29.
①图片来源：“Awoman rides a bicycle past a row of new cars for sale at a car market in Bejing on May16,2012”，www.presstv.ir，2013-02-28.
②图片来源：“AChinese driver checks out a heavy traffic jam in Beijing”，www.abc.net.au，2011-05-10.
[1]柴彦威,沈洁,赵莹.城市交通出行行为研究方法前沿[J].中国科技论文在线,2010,5(5):402-409.
[2]柴彦威,肖作鹏,刘志林.基于空间行为约束的北京市居民家庭日常出行碳排放的比较分析[J].地理科学,2011,31(7):843-849.
[3]柴彦威,肖作鹏,刘志林.居民家庭日常出行碳排放的发生机制与调控策略——以北京市为例[J].地理研究,2012,31(2):334-344.
[4]陈燕萍,宋彦,张毅,等.城市土地利用特征对居民出行方式的影响——以深圳市为例[J].城市交通,2011,9(5):80-85+27.
[5]戴伟娣.清洁发展机制简介[J].生物质化学工程,2006,40(1):40-44.
[6]戴伟娣.清洁发展机制简介(Ⅱ)——清洁发展机制方法学理论基础[J].生物质化学工程,2006,40(2):50-52.
[7]戴伟娣.清洁发展机制简介(Ⅲ)——清洁发展机制在中国[J].生物质化学工程,2006,40(3):59-62.
[8]戴晓晖.新城市主义的区域发展模式——Peter Calthorpe的《下一代美国大都市地区:生态、社区和美国之梦》读后感[J].城市规划汇刊,2000(5):77-78+80.
[9]杜洪雷.济南商住楼地下车库改卖菜，客流量小成最大困扰[EB/OL].(2009-07-06)[2012-12-12]. http://jn.focus.cn/news/2009-07-06/707247.html.
[10]冯杰.北京中心城公共服务设施的可达性研究[硕士学位论文].北京:清华大学建筑学院,2007.
[11]桂丹,毛其智.美国新城市主义思潮的发展及其对中国城市设计的借鉴[J].世界建筑,2000(10):26-30.
[12]何芳,李晓丽.保障性社区公共服务设施供需特征及满意度因子的实证研究——以上海市宝山区顾村镇“四高小区”为例[J].城市规划学刊,2010(4):83-90.
[13]何剑枫,高志强,胡韶军.居住区配套设施问题浅析[J].北京规划建设,2005(4):119-121.
[14]胡俊.中国城市：模式与演进[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,1995:113.
[15]济南市商务局,济南市规划局,中商商业发展规划院,等.《济南市城市商业网点规划（2012-2020）》公示稿[EB/OL].(2012-12-20)[2013-01-28]. http://www.jinanbusiness.gov.cn/2012/1220/10571.html.
[16]济南市统计局,国家统计局济南调查队.济南统计年鉴——2009[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2009.
[17]姜洋,何东全, ZEGRAS Christopher.城市街区形态对居民出行能耗的影响研究[J].城市交通,2011,9(4):21-29+75.
[18]江亿.建筑节能与生活模式[J].建筑学报,2007(12):11-15.
[19]江亿.我国建筑节能战略研究[J].中国工程科学,2011,13(6):30-38.
[20]李百浩,王西波.济南近代城市规划历史研究[J].城市规划汇刊,2003(2):50-55+95.
[21]李成.降低交通能耗是时候了[EB/OL].(2010-08-07)[2012-12-12]. http://www.ceh.com.cn/ceh/cjxx/2010/8/7/67071.shtml.
[22]李成磊.北京边缘集团商业空间结构研究[硕士学位论文].北京:清华大学建筑学院,2006.
[23]刘昌寿,沈清基.“新城市主义”的思想内涵及其启示[J].现代城市研究,2002(1):55-58.
[24]刘沛,杜宁睿,黄经南,等.基于社区尺度的城市空间参数对家庭日常出行碳排放的影响研究[C].中国云南昆明：多元与包容——2012中国城市规划年会论文集.2012:525-546.
[25]刘小波.我国城市小街坊住区公共服务设施主要问题研究[博士学位论文].北京:清华大学建筑学院,2010.
[26]刘晓钟,吴金祥.北京市居住区配套设施典型调研[J].建筑创作,2006(2):78-81.
[27]刘振,周溪召.巢式Logit模型在交通方式选择行为中的应用[J].上海海事大学学报,2006(3):66-70.
[28]龙奋杰,郑思齐,王轶军,等.基于空间计量经济学模型的城市公共服务价值估计[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),2009,49(12):2028-2031.
[29] MIT与清华大学建筑学院.节能城市设计研究中期汇报[R].北京:清华大学建筑学院,2010.
[30]马静,柴彦威,张文佳.北京市居民购物出行影响因素的空间分异[J].经济地理,2009,29(12):2006-2011.
[31]马思新,李昂.基于Hedonic模型的北京住宅价格影响因素分析[J].土木工程学报,2003,36(9):59-64.
[32]潘海啸,沈青,张明.城市形态对居民出行的影响——上海实例研究[J].城市交通,2009,7(6):28-32+49.
[33]仇保兴.怎样建设节能型城市[J].住宅产业,2004(10):10-11.
[34]秦杨.济南传统居民及其环境特色评析[J].科技信息,2007(8):114+86.
[35]清华大学建筑节能研究课题组.社会地位结构与节能行为关系研究[J].江苏社会科学,2011(6):47-54.
[36]清华大学建筑学院.节能城市设计研究终期报告[R].北京:清华大学建筑学院,2012.
[37]任晋锋,吕斌.土地使用对交通出行的影响[J].城市规划学刊,2011(5):63-72.
[38]任晋锋,吕斌.北京核心城区社区公共服务设施问题及对策研究——以西城区调研为例[J].现代城市研究,2012(2):53-59.
[39]三秦都市报.中国汽车保有量破一亿,成第二大汽车保有国[EB/OL].(2011-12-13)2012-12-12. http://auto.people.com.cn/GB/16583918.html.
[40]孙斌栋,潘鑫.城市空间结构对交通出行影响研究的进展——单中心与多中心的论争[J].城市问题,2008(1):19-22+28.
[41]孙斌栋,潘鑫,吴雅菲.城市交通出行影响因素的计量检验[J].城市问题,2008(7):11-15+26.
[42]所罗门,著.大问题：简明哲学导论[M].张卜天,译.桂林:广西师范大学出版社,2004:161-196..
[43]谭纵波.城市规划[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2005:42-49.
[44]万霞,陈峻,王炜.我国组团式城市小汽车出行特性研究[J].城市规划学刊,2007(3):86-89.
[45]汪丁丁.数学和社会科学方法的关系[J].社会科学战线,2004(5):.29-40.
[46]汪丁丁.中国社会科学的研究方法导论[J].财经问题研究,2008(10):3-13.
[47]汪丁丁.中国社会科学的研究方法导论(续)[J].财经问题研究,2008(11):3-13.
[48]汪丁丁.社会科学定量分析方法基础探讨[J].社会科学战线,2010(1):40-46.
[49]汪坚强,近现代济南城市形态的演变与发展研究[硕士学位论文],北京:清华大学建筑学院,2004,
[50]王静文,毛其智,杨东峰.城市规划的能源影响探讨——规划视角中的城市交通能耗模型[C].中国辽宁大连:生态文明视角下的城乡规划——2008中国城市规划年会论文集.2008:1-10.
[51]魏传强.山东济南全力打造“步行十分钟”社区商业圈[EB/OL].(2006-11-06)[2012-12-12].http://www.sd.xinhuanet.com/news/2006-11/06/content_8437823.htm.
[52]吴爽.欧洲千人汽车保有量为六百辆,中国低于世界平均水平[EB/OL].(2012-10-11)
[2012-12-12]. http://zyqc.cc/Article/Detail/72140.
[53]闫小培,周素红,毛蒋兴,等.高密度开发城市的交通系统与土地利用：以广州为例[M].北京:科学出版社,2006.
[54]杨婵玉,赵小旺.广州市住户满意度评价研究[J].管理观察,2008(8):183-184.
[55]杨阳.北美城市形态与交通行为能耗关系研究[J].北京规划建设,2011(2):70-74.
[56]杨震,赵民.论市场经济下居住区公共服务设施的建设方式[J].城市规划,2002,26(5):14-19.
[57]姚胜永,潘海啸.基于交通能耗的城市空间和交通模式宏观分析及对我国城市发展的启示[J].城市规划学刊,2009(3):46-52.
[58]赵辉,张声远,杨秀,等.中国六个典型城市休闲能耗的调研与分析[J].城市发展研究,2011,18(1):43-52.
[59]赵民,林华.居住区公共服务设施配建指标体系研究[J].城市规划,2002,26(12):72-75.
[60]张杰,杨阳,毛其智.居住区不同服务设施类型重要性比较研究[J].住区,2012(2):142-147.
[61]张楠.我国交通能耗逐年上升,约占社会总能耗20%[EB/OL].(2010-08-18)[2012-12-12].http://www.tianjinwe.com/rollnews/gn/201008/t20100818_1503551.html.
[62]张文佳,柴彦威.居住空间对家庭购物出行决策的影响[J].地理科学进展,2009,28(3):362-369.
[63]郑捷奋,刘洪玉.深圳地铁建设对站点周边住宅价值的影响[J].铁道学报,2005,27(5):11-18.
[64]郑思齐,刘洪玉.市场比较法中因素调整过程的改进——归一法与Hedonic模型法[C].北京:2003中国房地产估价学术研讨会.2003:153-158.
[65]中国城市规划设计研究院.济南城市空间战略规划[R/OL].北京:中国城市规划设计研究院,2002. http://www.china-up.com:8080/gzcy/showproject.asp?cid=304&title=济南城市空间战略规划（一）.
[66]中国天气网.济南市气候特点[EB/OL].(2009-11-13)[2010-03-14]. http://www.weather.com.cn/shandong/sdqh/gsqhtd/11/85353.shtml.
[67]中国新闻网.泉城概况[EB/OL].(2007-09-17)[2010-03-14]. http://www.chinanews.com/gj/kong/news/2007/09-17/1029064.shtml.
[68]中华人民共和国建设部.城市居住区规划设计规范GB50180—93[S].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2002.
[69]中华人民共和国建设部.城市用地分类与规划建设用地标准GBJ137-90[S].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,1991.
[70]周素红,阎小培.城市交通与土地利用关系研究的进展[J].规划师,2005,21(3):58-62.
[71]朱頔.济南市贸易服务局副局长网上回答市民提问——地下车库可改成菜市场？今年规划里只有5处选址在地下[EB/OL].(2009-07-11)[2012-12-12].http://paper.dzwww.com/shrb/data/20090711/html/7/content_4.html
[72]邹兵.“新城市主义”与美国社区设计的新动向[J].国外城市规划,2000(2):36-38+43.
[73] Anselin L. Spatial econometrics: methods and models [M]. Netherland: Kluwer AcademicPublishers,1988.
[74] Calthorpe P. The next American metropolis: ecology, community, and the American dream
[M]. New York: Princeton Architectural Press,1993.
[75] Cameron I, Kenworthy J R, Lyons T J. Understanding and predicting private motorised urbanmobility [J]. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment,2003,8(4):267-283.
[76] Cameron I, Lyons T J, Kenworthy J R. Trends in vehicle kilometres of travel in world cities,1960–1990: underlying drivers and policy responses [J]. Transport Policy,2004,11(3):287-298.
[77] Cervero R. Mixed land-uses and commuting: evidence from the American housing survey [J].Transportation Research Part A,1996,30(5):361-377.
[78] Cervero R. Built environments and mode choice: toward a normative framework.Transportation Research Part D,2002,7(4):265-284.
[79] Cervero R, Duncan M. Walking, bicycling, and urban landscapes: evidence from the SanFrancisco Bay Area [J]. American Journal of Public Health,2003,93(9):1478-1483.
[80] Cervero R, Duncan M. Which reduces vehicle travel more: jobs-housing balance orretail-housing mixing [J]. Journal of the American Planning Association,2006,72(4):475–490.
[81] Cervero R, Gorham R. Commuting in transit versus automobile neighborhoods [J]. Journal ofthe American Planning Association,1995.61(2):210-225.
[82] Cervero R, Kockelman K. Travel demand and the3Ds: density, diversity, and design [J].Transportation Research Part D,1997. Vol.2(No.3): p. pp.199-219.
[83] Chatman D G. How density and mixed uses at the workplace affect personal commercialtravel and commute mode choice [J]. Transportation Research Record,2003,1831:193-201.
[84] Chen Yang. Neighborhood design and the energy efficiency of urban lifestyle in China:treating residence and mobility as lifestyle bundle [D]. Cambridge, MA, USA: Department ofUrban Studies and Planning, MIT,2012.
[85] Dill J. Travel behavior and attitudes: new urbanist vs. traditional suburban neighborhoods [C].Washington, D.C., USA: the2004Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board,2004.
[86] Ewing R, Bartholomew K, Winkelman S, et al. Growing cooler: the evidence on urbandevelopment and climate change [M/OL]. Chicago: Urban Land Institute.2007[2010-3-14],https://www.commuterconnections.org/uploads/committee-documents/u1ZbXlk20070921140031.pdf.
[87] Ewing R, Cervero R. Travel and the built environment: a synthesis [J]. TransportationResearch Record,2001,1780:87–114.
[88] Ewing R, Cervero R. Travel and the built environment: a meta-analysis [J]. Journal of theAmerican Planning Association,2010,71(3):265-294.
[89] Ewing R, Pendall R, Chen D. Measuring sprawl and its transportation impacts [J].Transportation Research Record,2002,1831:175-183.
[90] Ewing R, Rong F. The impact of urban form on U.S. residential energy use [J]. HousingPolicy Debate,2008,19(1):1-30.
[91] Frank L D, Pivo G. Impacts of mixed use and density on utilization of three modes of travel:single occupant vehicle, transit, and walking [J]. Transportation Research Record,1994,1466:44-52.
[92] Frank L D, Stone Jr B, Bachman W. Linking land use with household vehicle emissions in thecentral puget sound: methodological framework and findings [J]. Transportation ResearchPart D,2000,5(3):173-196.
[93] Friedman B, Gordon S P, Peers J B. Effect of neotraditional neighborhood design on travelcharacteristics [J]. Transportation Research Record,1994,1466:63-70.
[94] Glaeser E L, Kahn M E. The Greenness of Cities: Carbon Dioxide Emissions and UrbanDevelopment [J/OL]. On-Line Working Paper Series, California Center for PopulationResearch, UC Los Angeles: NBER Working Paper Series No.14238,2008:1-45[2011-3-14].http://escholarship.org/uc/item/2pk7j5cp.
[95] Gomez-lbanez, Jose A. A global view of automobile dependence (Book Review)[J]. Journalof the American Planning Association,1991,57(3):376-379.
[96] Gordon P, Richardson H W. Gasoline consumption and cities: a reply (Review)[J]. Journal ofthe American Planning Association,1989,55(3):342-346.
[97] Handy S L. Regional versus local accessibility: neo-traditional development and itsimplications for non-work travel [J]. Built Environment (1978-),1992,18(4):253-267.
[98] Handy S L. Regional versus local accessibility: implications for non-work travel [J].Transportation Research Record,1993,1400:58-66.
[99] Handy S L. Methodologies for exploring the link between urban form and travel behavior [J].Transportation Research Part D,1996,1(2):151-165.
[100] Handy S L. Critical assessment of the literature on the relationships among transportation,land use, and physical activity [R/OL]. Davis, CA, USA: Department of EnvironmentalScience and Policy, University of California, Davis,2004[2011-03-14].http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/archive/downloads/sr282papers/sr282handy.pdf.
[101] Handy S L, Boarnet M G, Ewing R, et al. How the built environment affects physical activity-views from urban planning [J]. American Journal of Preventive Medicine,2002,23(2):64-73.
[102] Handy S L, Clifton K J. Local shopping as a strategy for reducing automobile travel [J].Transportation,2001,28(4):317-346.
[103] Holtzclaw J. Using residential patterns and transit to decrease auto dependence and costs [R].San Francisco, CA: Natural Resources Defense Council,1994[2010-3-14]. http://docs.nrdc.org/smartGrowth/files/sma_09121401a.pdf
[104] Jiang Yang, Does energy follow urban form? An examination of neighborhoods and transportenergy use in Jinan, China [D]. Cambridge, MA, USA: Department of Urban Studies andPlanning, MIT,2010.
[105] Kahneman D, Ritov I, Schkade D. Economic preferences or attitude expressions?: an analysisof dollar responses to public issues [J]. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty,1999,19(13):203-235.
[106] Kitamura R, Mokhtarian P L, Laidet L. A micro-analysis of land use and travel in fiveneighborhoods in the San Francisco Bay Area [J]. Transportation,1997,24(2):125-158.
[107] Krizek K J. Residential relocation and changes in urban travel-does neighborhood-scaleurban form matter?[J]. Journal of the American Planning Association,2003,69(3):265-281.
[108] McFadden D. Economic choices [J]. The American Economic Review,2001,91(3):351-378.
[109] McFadden D, Train K. Mixed MNL models for discrete response [J]. Journal of AppliedEconometrics,2000,15(5):447-470.
[110] Muniz I, Galindo A. Urban form and the ecological footprint of commuting. The case ofBarcelona [J]. Ecological Economics,2005,55(4):499-514.
[111] Newman P W G, Kenworthy J R. Gasoline consumption and cities: a comparison of U.S.cities with a global survey [J]. Jouranl of American Planning Association,1989.55(1):24-47.
[112] Rajamani J, Bhat C R, Handy S L, et al. Assessing impact of urban form measures onnonwork trip mode choice after controlling for demographic and level-of-service effects [J].Transportation Research Record,2003,1831:158-165.
[113] Reilly M, Landis J. The influence of built-form and land use on mode choice: evidence fromthe1996Bay Area Travel Survey [R/OL]. Berkeley: University of California TransportationCenter,2002[2010-03-14]. http://escholarship.org/uc/item/46r3k871.
[114] Simon H A. A behavioral model of rational choice [J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1955,69(1):99-118.
[115] Thaler R H. Mental accounting matters [J]. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making,1999,12(3):183-206.
[116] Van de Coevering P, Schwanen T. Re-evaluating the impact of urban form on travel patternsin Europe and North-American [J]. Transport Policy,2006,13(3):229-239.
[117] Yasukochi E T. Air quality implications of neighborhood design: case study of Charlotte, NC
[D]. Chapel Hill: Department of City and Regional Planning, University of North Carolina.2007.
[118] Zegras P C. As if Kyoto mattered: the clean development mechanism and transportation [J].Energy Policy,2007,35(10):5136–5150.
[119] Zegras P C, Srinivasan S. Household income, travel behavior, location and accessibility:sketches from two different developing contexts [J]. Transportation Research Record,2007,2038:128-138.
[120] Zegras P C, Chen Y, Grütter J M. Potentials and challenges for using the clean developmentmechanism for transport efficient development: a case study of Nanchang, China [P/OL].Cambridge, MA, USA: Department of Urban Studies and Planning, MIT,2008[2010-03-14].http://web.mit.edu/czegras/www/Zegras_Chen_Grutter_TRB_CDM_Final.pdf.
[121] Zegras P C, Hunter G P. Mobility’s footprint: household travel, local and global emissions,and the built environment in Santiago de Chile [R]. Cambridge, MA, USA: Department ofUrban Studies and Planning, MIT,2011.
[122] Zhao Huixia, Zhang Zulu, Jiang Luguang. Analysis and modeling on the spatial structure ofurban land use: a case of Jinan, China [J]. Chinese Journal of Population, Resources andEnvironment,2007,5(2):34-40.
②图片来源：日本青森县，摄影影师：共同社，“iDaily每日环环球视野for iPPhone”，2012--03-29.
①图片来源：“Awoman rides a bicycle past a row of new cars for sale at a car market in Bejing on May16,2012”，www.presstv.ir，2013-02-28.
②图片来源：“AChinese driver checks out a heavy traffic jam in Beijing”，www.abc.net.au，2011-05-10.
[1]柴彦威,沈洁,赵莹.城市交通出行行为研究方法前沿[J].中国科技论文在线,2010,5(5):402-409.
[2]柴彦威,肖作鹏,刘志林.基于空间行为约束的北京市居民家庭日常出行碳排放的比较分析[J].地理科学,2011,31(7):843-849.
[3]柴彦威,肖作鹏,刘志林.居民家庭日常出行碳排放的发生机制与调控策略——以北京市为例[J].地理研究,2012,31(2):334-344.
[4]陈燕萍,宋彦,张毅,等.城市土地利用特征对居民出行方式的影响——以深圳市为例[J].城市交通,2011,9(5):80-85+27.
[5]戴伟娣.清洁发展机制简介[J].生物质化学工程,2006,40(1):40-44.
[6]戴伟娣.清洁发展机制简介(Ⅱ)——清洁发展机制方法学理论基础[J].生物质化学工程,2006,40(2):50-52.
[7]戴伟娣.清洁发展机制简介(Ⅲ)——清洁发展机制在中国[J].生物质化学工程,2006,40(3):59-62.
[8]戴晓晖.新城市主义的区域发展模式——Peter Calthorpe的《下一代美国大都市地区:生态、社区和美国之梦》读后感[J].城市规划汇刊,2000(5):77-78+80.
[9]杜洪雷.济南商住楼地下车库改卖菜，客流量小成最大困扰[EB/OL].(2009-07-06)[2012-12-12]. http://jn.focus.cn/news/2009-07-06/707247.html.
[10]冯杰.北京中心城公共服务设施的可达性研究[硕士学位论文].北京:清华大学建筑学院,2007.
[11]桂丹,毛其智.美国新城市主义思潮的发展及其对中国城市设计的借鉴[J].世界建筑,2000(10):26-30.
[12]何芳,李晓丽.保障性社区公共服务设施供需特征及满意度因子的实证研究——以上海市宝山区顾村镇“四高小区”为例[J].城市规划学刊,2010(4):83-90.
[13]何剑枫,高志强,胡韶军.居住区配套设施问题浅析[J].北京规划建设,2005(4):119-121.
[14]胡俊.中国城市：模式与演进[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,1995:113.
[15]济南市商务局,济南市规划局,中商商业发展规划院,等.《济南市城市商业网点规划（2012-2020）》公示稿[EB/OL].(2012-12-20)[2013-01-28]. http://www.jinanbusiness.gov.cn/2012/1220/10571.html.
[16]济南市统计局,国家统计局济南调查队.济南统计年鉴——2009[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2009.
[17]姜洋,何东全, ZEGRAS Christopher.城市街区形态对居民出行能耗的影响研究[J].城市交通,2011,9(4):21-29+75.
[18]江亿.建筑节能与生活模式[J].建筑学报,2007(12):11-15.
[19]江亿.我国建筑节能战略研究[J].中国工程科学,2011,13(6):30-38.
[20]李百浩,王西波.济南近代城市规划历史研究[J].城市规划汇刊,2003(2):50-55+95.
[21]李成.降低交通能耗是时候了[EB/OL].(2010-08-07)[2012-12-12]. http://www.ceh.com.cn/ceh/cjxx/2010/8/7/67071.shtml.
[22]李成磊.北京边缘集团商业空间结构研究[硕士学位论文].北京:清华大学建筑学院,2006.
[23]刘昌寿,沈清基.“新城市主义”的思想内涵及其启示[J].现代城市研究,2002(1):55-58.
[24]刘沛,杜宁睿,黄经南,等.基于社区尺度的城市空间参数对家庭日常出行碳排放的影响研究[C].中国云南昆明：多元与包容——2012中国城市规划年会论文集.2012:525-546.
[25]刘小波.我国城市小街坊住区公共服务设施主要问题研究[博士学位论文].北京:清华大学建筑学院,2010.
[26]刘晓钟,吴金祥.北京市居住区配套设施典型调研[J].建筑创作,2006(2):78-81.
[27]刘振,周溪召.巢式Logit模型在交通方式选择行为中的应用[J].上海海事大学学报,2006(3):66-70.
[28]龙奋杰,郑思齐,王轶军,等.基于空间计量经济学模型的城市公共服务价值估计[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),2009,49(12):2028-2031.
[29] MIT与清华大学建筑学院.节能城市设计研究中期汇报[R].北京:清华大学建筑学院,2010.
[30]马静,柴彦威,张文佳.北京市居民购物出行影响因素的空间分异[J].经济地理,2009,29(12):2006-2011.
[31]马思新,李昂.基于Hedonic模型的北京住宅价格影响因素分析[J].土木工程学报,2003,36(9):59-64.
[32]潘海啸,沈青,张明.城市形态对居民出行的影响——上海实例研究[J].城市交通,2009,7(6):28-32+49.
[33]仇保兴.怎样建设节能型城市[J].住宅产业,2004(10):10-11.
[34]秦杨.济南传统居民及其环境特色评析[J].科技信息,2007(8):114+86.
[35]清华大学建筑节能研究课题组.社会地位结构与节能行为关系研究[J].江苏社会科学,2011(6):47-54.
[36]清华大学建筑学院.节能城市设计研究终期报告[R].北京:清华大学建筑学院,2012.
[37]任晋锋,吕斌.土地使用对交通出行的影响[J].城市规划学刊,2011(5):63-72.
[38]任晋锋,吕斌.北京核心城区社区公共服务设施问题及对策研究——以西城区调研为例[J].现代城市研究,2012(2):53-59.
[39]三秦都市报.中国汽车保有量破一亿,成第二大汽车保有国[EB/OL].(2011-12-13)2012-12-12. http://auto.people.com.cn/GB/16583918.html.
[40]孙斌栋,潘鑫.城市空间结构对交通出行影响研究的进展——单中心与多中心的论争[J].城市问题,2008(1):19-22+28.
[41]孙斌栋,潘鑫,吴雅菲.城市交通出行影响因素的计量检验[J].城市问题,2008(7):11-15+26.
[42]所罗门,著.大问题：简明哲学导论[M].张卜天,译.桂林:广西师范大学出版社,2004:161-196..
[43]谭纵波.城市规划[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2005:42-49.
[44]万霞,陈峻,王炜.我国组团式城市小汽车出行特性研究[J].城市规划学刊,2007(3):86-89.
[45]汪丁丁.数学和社会科学方法的关系[J].社会科学战线,2004(5):.29-40.
[46]汪丁丁.中国社会科学的研究方法导论[J].财经问题研究,2008(10):3-13.
[47]汪丁丁.中国社会科学的研究方法导论(续)[J].财经问题研究,2008(11):3-13.
[48]汪丁丁.社会科学定量分析方法基础探讨[J].社会科学战线,2010(1):40-46.
[49]汪坚强,近现代济南城市形态的演变与发展研究[硕士学位论文],北京:清华大学建筑学院,2004,
[50]王静文,毛其智,杨东峰.城市规划的能源影响探讨——规划视角中的城市交通能耗模型[C].中国辽宁大连:生态文明视角下的城乡规划——2008中国城市规划年会论文集.2008:1-10.
[51]魏传强.山东济南全力打造“步行十分钟”社区商业圈[EB/OL].(2006-11-06)[2012-12-12].http://www.sd.xinhuanet.com/news/2006-11/06/content_8437823.htm.
[52]吴爽.欧洲千人汽车保有量为六百辆,中国低于世界平均水平[EB/OL].(2012-10-11)
[2012-12-12]. http://zyqc.cc/Article/Detail/72140.
[53]闫小培,周素红,毛蒋兴,等.高密度开发城市的交通系统与土地利用：以广州为例[M].北京:科学出版社,2006.
[54]杨婵玉,赵小旺.广州市住户满意度评价研究[J].管理观察,2008(8):183-184.
[55]杨阳.北美城市形态与交通行为能耗关系研究[J].北京规划建设,2011(2):70-74.
[56]杨震,赵民.论市场经济下居住区公共服务设施的建设方式[J].城市规划,2002,26(5):14-19.
[57]姚胜永,潘海啸.基于交通能耗的城市空间和交通模式宏观分析及对我国城市发展的启示[J].城市规划学刊,2009(3):46-52.
[58]赵辉,张声远,杨秀,等.中国六个典型城市休闲能耗的调研与分析[J].城市发展研究,2011,18(1):43-52.
[59]赵民,林华.居住区公共服务设施配建指标体系研究[J].城市规划,2002,26(12):72-75.
[60]张杰,杨阳,毛其智.居住区不同服务设施类型重要性比较研究[J].住区,2012(2):142-147.
[61]张楠.我国交通能耗逐年上升,约占社会总能耗20%[EB/OL].(2010-08-18)[2012-12-12].http://www.tianjinwe.com/rollnews/gn/201008/t20100818_1503551.html.
[62]张文佳,柴彦威.居住空间对家庭购物出行决策的影响[J].地理科学进展,2009,28(3):362-369.
[63]郑捷奋,刘洪玉.深圳地铁建设对站点周边住宅价值的影响[J].铁道学报,2005,27(5):11-18.
[64]郑思齐,刘洪玉.市场比较法中因素调整过程的改进——归一法与Hedonic模型法[C].北京:2003中国房地产估价学术研讨会.2003:153-158.
[65]中国城市规划设计研究院.济南城市空间战略规划[R/OL].北京:中国城市规划设计研究院,2002. http://www.china-up.com:8080/gzcy/showproject.asp?cid=304&title=济南城市空间战略规划（一）.
[66]中国天气网.济南市气候特点[EB/OL].(2009-11-13)[2010-03-14]. http://www.weather.com.cn/shandong/sdqh/gsqhtd/11/85353.shtml.
[67]中国新闻网.泉城概况[EB/OL].(2007-09-17)[2010-03-14]. http://www.chinanews.com/gj/kong/news/2007/09-17/1029064.shtml.
[68]中华人民共和国建设部.城市居住区规划设计规范GB50180—93[S].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2002.
[69]中华人民共和国建设部.城市用地分类与规划建设用地标准GBJ137-90[S].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,1991.
[70]周素红,阎小培.城市交通与土地利用关系研究的进展[J].规划师,2005,21(3):58-62.
[71]朱頔.济南市贸易服务局副局长网上回答市民提问——地下车库可改成菜市场？今年规划里只有5处选址在地下[EB/OL].(2009-07-11)[2012-12-12].http://paper.dzwww.com/shrb/data/20090711/html/7/content_4.html
[72]邹兵.“新城市主义”与美国社区设计的新动向[J].国外城市规划,2000(2):36-38+43.
[73] Anselin L. Spatial econometrics: methods and models [M]. Netherland: Kluwer AcademicPublishers,1988.
[74] Calthorpe P. The next American metropolis: ecology, community, and the American dream
[M]. New York: Princeton Architectural Press,1993.
[75] Cameron I, Kenworthy J R, Lyons T J. Understanding and predicting private motorised urbanmobility [J]. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment,2003,8(4):267-283.
[76] Cameron I, Lyons T J, Kenworthy J R. Trends in vehicle kilometres of travel in world cities,1960–1990: underlying drivers and policy responses [J]. Transport Policy,2004,11(3):287-298.
[77] Cervero R. Mixed land-uses and commuting: evidence from the American housing survey [J].Transportation Research Part A,1996,30(5):361-377.
[78] Cervero R. Built environments and mode choice: toward a normative framework.Transportation Research Part D,2002,7(4):265-284.
[79] Cervero R, Duncan M. Walking, bicycling, and urban landscapes: evidence from the SanFrancisco Bay Area [J]. American Journal of Public Health,2003,93(9):1478-1483.
[80] Cervero R, Duncan M. Which reduces vehicle travel more: jobs-housing balance orretail-housing mixing [J]. Journal of the American Planning Association,2006,72(4):475–490.
[81] Cervero R, Gorham R. Commuting in transit versus automobile neighborhoods [J]. Journal ofthe American Planning Association,1995.61(2):210-225.
[82] Cervero R, Kockelman K. Travel demand and the3Ds: density, diversity, and design [J].Transportation Research Part D,1997. Vol.2(No.3): p. pp.199-219.
[83] Chatman D G. How density and mixed uses at the workplace affect personal commercialtravel and commute mode choice [J]. Transportation Research Record,2003,1831:193-201.
[84] Chen Yang. Neighborhood design and the energy efficiency of urban lifestyle in China:treating residence and mobility as lifestyle bundle [D]. Cambridge, MA, USA: Department ofUrban Studies and Planning, MIT,2012.
[85] Dill J. Travel behavior and attitudes: new urbanist vs. traditional suburban neighborhoods [C].Washington, D.C., USA: the2004Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board,2004.
[86] Ewing R, Bartholomew K, Winkelman S, et al. Growing cooler: the evidence on urbandevelopment and climate change [M/OL]. Chicago: Urban Land Institute.2007[2010-3-14],https://www.commuterconnections.org/uploads/committee-documents/u1ZbXlk20070921140031.pdf.
[87] Ewing R, Cervero R. Travel and the built environment: a synthesis [J]. TransportationResearch Record,2001,1780:87–114.
[88] Ewing R, Cervero R. Travel and the built environment: a meta-analysis [J]. Journal of theAmerican Planning Association,2010,71(3):265-294.
[89] Ewing R, Pendall R, Chen D. Measuring sprawl and its transportation impacts [J].Transportation Research Record,2002,1831:175-183.
[90] Ewing R, Rong F. The impact of urban form on U.S. residential energy use [J]. HousingPolicy Debate,2008,19(1):1-30.
[91] Frank L D, Pivo G. Impacts of mixed use and density on utilization of three modes of travel:single occupant vehicle, transit, and walking [J]. Transportation Research Record,1994,1466:44-52.
[92] Frank L D, Stone Jr B, Bachman W. Linking land use with household vehicle emissions in thecentral puget sound: methodological framework and findings [J]. Transportation ResearchPart D,2000,5(3):173-196.
[93] Friedman B, Gordon S P, Peers J B. Effect of neotraditional neighborhood design on travelcharacteristics [J]. Transportation Research Record,1994,1466:63-70.
[94] Glaeser E L, Kahn M E. The Greenness of Cities: Carbon Dioxide Emissions and UrbanDevelopment [J/OL]. On-Line Working Paper Series, California Center for PopulationResearch, UC Los Angeles: NBER Working Paper Series No.14238,2008:1-45[2011-3-14].http://escholarship.org/uc/item/2pk7j5cp.
[95] Gomez-lbanez, Jose A. A global view of automobile dependence (Book Review)[J]. Journalof the American Planning Association,1991,57(3):376-379.
[96] Gordon P, Richardson H W. Gasoline consumption and cities: a reply (Review)[J]. Journal ofthe American Planning Association,1989,55(3):342-346.
[97] Handy S L. Regional versus local accessibility: neo-traditional development and itsimplications for non-work travel [J]. Built Environment (1978-),1992,18(4):253-267.
[98] Handy S L. Regional versus local accessibility: implications for non-work travel [J].Transportation Research Record,1993,1400:58-66.
[99] Handy S L. Methodologies for exploring the link between urban form and travel behavior [J].Transportation Research Part D,1996,1(2):151-165.
[100] Handy S L. Critical assessment of the literature on the relationships among transportation,land use, and physical activity [R/OL]. Davis, CA, USA: Department of EnvironmentalScience and Policy, University of California, Davis,2004[2011-03-14].http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/archive/downloads/sr282papers/sr282handy.pdf.
[101] Handy S L, Boarnet M G, Ewing R, et al. How the built environment affects physical activity-views from urban planning [J]. American Journal of Preventive Medicine,2002,23(2):64-73.
[102] Handy S L, Clifton K J. Local shopping as a strategy for reducing automobile travel [J].Transportation,2001,28(4):317-346.
[103] Holtzclaw J. Using residential patterns and transit to decrease auto dependence and costs [R].San Francisco, CA: Natural Resources Defense Council,1994[2010-3-14]. http://docs.nrdc.org/smartGrowth/files/sma_09121401a.pdf
[104] Jiang Yang, Does energy follow urban form? An examination of neighborhoods and transportenergy use in Jinan, China [D]. Cambridge, MA, USA: Department of Urban Studies andPlanning, MIT,2010.
[105] Kahneman D, Ritov I, Schkade D. Economic preferences or attitude expressions?: an analysisof dollar responses to public issues [J]. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty,1999,19(13):203-235.
[106] Kitamura R, Mokhtarian P L, Laidet L. A micro-analysis of land use and travel in fiveneighborhoods in the San Francisco Bay Area [J]. Transportation,1997,24(2):125-158.
[107] Krizek K J. Residential relocation and changes in urban travel-does neighborhood-scaleurban form matter?[J]. Journal of the American Planning Association,2003,69(3):265-281.
[108] McFadden D. Economic choices [J]. The American Economic Review,2001,91(3):351-378.
[109] McFadden D, Train K. Mixed MNL models for discrete response [J]. Journal of AppliedEconometrics,2000,15(5):447-470.
[110] Muniz I, Galindo A. Urban form and the ecological footprint of commuting. The case ofBarcelona [J]. Ecological Economics,2005,55(4):499-514.
[111] Newman P W G, Kenworthy J R. Gasoline consumption and cities: a comparison of U.S.cities with a global survey [J]. Jouranl of American Planning Association,1989.55(1):24-47.
[112] Rajamani J, Bhat C R, Handy S L, et al. Assessing impact of urban form measures onnonwork trip mode choice after controlling for demographic and level-of-service effects [J].Transportation Research Record,2003,1831:158-165.
[113] Reilly M, Landis J. The influence of built-form and land use on mode choice: evidence fromthe1996Bay Area Travel Survey [R/OL]. Berkeley: University of California TransportationCenter,2002[2010-03-14]. http://escholarship.org/uc/item/46r3k871.
[114] Simon H A. A behavioral model of rational choice [J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1955,69(1):99-118.
[115] Thaler R H. Mental accounting matters [J]. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making,1999,12(3):183-206.
[116] Van de Coevering P, Schwanen T. Re-evaluating the impact of urban form on travel patternsin Europe and North-American [J]. Transport Policy,2006,13(3):229-239.
[117] Yasukochi E T. Air quality implications of neighborhood design: case study of Charlotte, NC
[D]. Chapel Hill: Department of City and Regional Planning, University of North Carolina.2007.
[118] Zegras P C. As if Kyoto mattered: the clean development mechanism and transportation [J].Energy Policy,2007,35(10):5136–5150.
[119] Zegras P C, Srinivasan S. Household income, travel behavior, location and accessibility:sketches from two different developing contexts [J]. Transportation Research Record,2007,2038:128-138.
[120] Zegras P C, Chen Y, Grütter J M. Potentials and challenges for using the clean developmentmechanism for transport efficient development: a case study of Nanchang, China [P/OL].Cambridge, MA, USA: Department of Urban Studies and Planning, MIT,2008[2010-03-14].http://web.mit.edu/czegras/www/Zegras_Chen_Grutter_TRB_CDM_Final.pdf.
[121] Zegras P C, Hunter G P. Mobility’s footprint: household travel, local and global emissions,and the built environment in Santiago de Chile [R]. Cambridge, MA, USA: Department ofUrban Studies and Planning, MIT,2011.
[122] Zhao Huixia, Zhang Zulu, Jiang Luguang. Analysis and modeling on the spatial structure ofurban land use: a case of Jinan, China [J]. Chinese Journal of Population, Resources andEnvironment,2007,5(2):34-40.