经济发展阶段演进视角下区域经济可持续发展问题研究
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摘要
可持续发展是关系到全人类的“公共地”问题,作为可持续发展的核心问题------经济可持续发展,长期以来更是世界各国,特别是发达国家和发展中国家争吵与博弈的焦点。因为经济发展和可持续性往往是一对矛盾,不顾可持续性的经济发展往往更容易发展,因此,对于发展是第一要务的发展中国家或地区,他们往往更加看重经济发展速度和经济短期成效,而可持续性常被置于次要的和滞后的地位,而发达国家或地区由于已经经过了快速的经济增长,经济发展水平已经很高,所以,他们往往更加关注可持续性。事实上,虽然可持续性问题具有外部性,但一旦真正发生了可持续性问题,首当其冲地遭受危害的还是当事国或当事区域,比如污染问题,首先危害的还是造成这一污染的区域内的居民及其后代。此外,可持续性问题往往具有不可逆转性,滞后常常无法解决,或者需要付出比当初解决高得多的代价,所以,作为负责任的和有远见的区域经济管理者或者建设者,必须秉承可持续发展理念,将区域经济发展战略定位在可持续的、清洁的、高效的、环境友好型的、资源节约型的、代际代内公平型的经济增长上。
在以前,人们已经就区域经济可持续发展的内涵、理念及发展原则等诸方面取得了统一认识,在此基础上,本文就区域经济可持续发展的路径依赖、依据标准等问题进行进一步研究和探索。本文提出,区域经济可持续发展具有区域性和阶段性,实现区域经济可持续发展,不能要求全球、全国或区域内所有地区都按照统一的可持续性标准发展经济,而要根据区域经济特点和经济发展阶段确定。本文首先从区域经济可持续发展相关理论入手,提出经济发展阶段决定区域经济可持续发展路径的理论,并从经济持续增长、经济发展方式、区域均衡和生态环境质量等四个方面论述其作用机制及过程,然后对江苏经济进行实证分析,找出其经济可持续发展问题,最后根据江苏经济发展阶段提出基于差别化经济发展阶段的江苏经济可持续发展路径依赖。
研究最大创新点在于将区域经济可持续发展置于经济发展阶段的演进视角之下,充分考虑区域经济可持续发展的历史阶段性和区域差异性,提出了与经济发展阶段相匹配的区域经济可持续发展路径依赖,即保障区域经济持续增长的主导产业类型、合适的经济发展方式、区域均衡发展之策和环境保护之举,等等,研究体现了发展中国家的现实经济需求,提高了区域经济可持续发展理论的实践指导性。
研究采用动态与静态相结合、定性与定量相结合、理论与实证相结合等分析方法,还使用比较分析法、数学模型法、指标分析法、博弈模型法等。主要研究结论有：
(1)区域经济可持续发展是一个具有区域性、阶段性的规划问题。与区域经济特点及经济发展阶段相对应,区域经济可持续发展过程是一个非均衡的和烙有历史印记的发展过程,区域经济可持续发展路径需要结合区域经济特点和经济发展阶段确定。
(2)经济发展阶段与区域经济可持续发展之间有一种内在的联系。经济发展阶段决定区域经济发展任务、经济水平、技术水平、环境与生态标准等,所以,始于经济发展阶段,有一条与经济发展各阶段相匹配的区域经济可持续发展路径,其中经济持续增长、经济发展方式、区域均衡和污染治理是区域经济可持续发展路径上的关键问题。
(3)对经济发展阶段的划分常常因为依据的标准不同而不同,每一个经济发展阶段对应着一定的经济任务,匹配着相应的产业类型,但处于一定发展阶段的区域经济,其产业构成往往并不完全隶属于这一阶段,而是由隶属于不同阶段的产业混合组成,混合产业隶属于不同经济发展阶段程度及其变动趋势反映经济发展阶段的演进进程。
(4)根据“四阶段”划分法,江苏正处于工业化后期；根据模糊综合评价法,苏南、苏中、苏北正分别处于后工业化时期、工业化后期和工业化中期。为了保障江苏经济持续增长,可以运用层次分析法,对苏南、苏中、苏北的主导产业进行遴选和排序。
(5)集约型经济和粗放型经济是一种相对的关系,它们不断变化和统一于经济发展过程中。一般在经济发展低级阶段粗放型经济成份多一些,集约型经济成份少一些,而在经济发展高级阶段粗放型经济成份少一些,集约型经济成份多一些。短期的粗放型经济,有利于积累资本和开发先进的技术,而这些是集约型经济的基础,所以,短期的粗放型增长,也是实现经济可持续发展的一部分。
(6)为了实现江苏经济可持续发展目标,江苏必须缩小区域经济发展差距,需要重新调整经济资源在各区域的分配,需要根据经济发展阶段和区域经济特点调整与优化投资规模和去向,目前对于苏中、苏北的投资增幅应该大于对于苏南的投资增幅,这将有利于保持苏中、苏北对苏南的追赶态势。
(7)为了达到理想的治理污染的博弈结果,政府需要了解企业治理污染的成本高低、向企业提供适当的治理污染专项资金、降低污染检查成本、经常监督企业治理污染情况、设置足够高的污染罚款金额。
Sustainable development is a common land problem which is related to whole human beings. As a core problem of sustainable development, economic sustainable development is for long a quarrel or game focus among countries, especially between developed countries and developing ones. Frequently, economic development and sustainability are a couple of contradictions and economic development can easily run fast if sustainability is neglected, therefore, some developing countries or regions whose most important task is developing economy, often only catch sight of immediate interests and neglect sustainable development problems which are characteristic with external non-economy, while developed countries or regions who have experienced fast economic growth have reached high economic level, frequently attach importance to sustainability. In fact, although economic sustainability is of external non-economy, once a sustainable development problem indeed appears, the first and the most serious harm will fall upon the local country or region. Take pollution as an example, wherever pollution is created, it will firstly and seriously harm the local inhabitants and their descendents. Moreover, sustainable problem is often irreversible and if it delays being handled, it can't be handled or must be paid much more cost than at beginning. Therefore, as responsible managers or constructors of regional economy, they must take a broad and long-term view, stick to sustainable development theory and draw up appropriate regional economic development strategy which orients towards economic growth of sustainability, cleanness, efficiency, friendly environments, resource-saving, and fairness between and within generations.
However, in the past, people have only reached uniform recognition on connotation, idea and development principles of regional economic sustainability. On this basis, the paper researches and explores further on path dependent and criteria of regional economic development. The paper holds that regional economic sustainable development is characteristic with region and stage. To realize the aim of regional economic sustainable development, it is not required that the whole world, the whole country, or every region within a bigger region develop economy abiding by the absolutely uniform sustainable development standards, but it is required that every component region develop economy locally and gradually according to the region's economic development stages, regional economic development level, and regional economic features. The paper starts from related theories of regional economic sustainable development, put forward a theory that economic development stages determine the paths of regional economic sustainable development, and further discusses their function mechanism and process in economic lasting growth, economic development ways, regional equilibrium and ecological environment quality. Then Jiangsu economy is analysed empirically to discover its economic sustainable development problems. Finally Jiangsu economic sustainable development pathes dependent are suggested according to Jiangsu economic development stages.
The research's biggest innovation lies in that regional economic sustainable development problem is researched in the vision of economic development stages and put forward regional economic sustainable development path matching economic development stages, that is, corresponding to economic development stages, deciding regional economy's leading industry type, economic development model, equilibrium development method, environment conservation method, and so on, which reflects developing countries' reality economic demand and enhances the practical directing function of the regional economic sustainable development theory.
Research methods include combining dynamic analysis with static analysis, quantitative analysis with qualitative analysis, theoretical analysis with empirical analysis, as well as comparative method, mathematic model method, index method, game model method, and so on. Main conclusions of the research:
(1) Regional economic sustainable development is a problem related to region and stage, and in correspond to regional economic features and regional economic development stages, it is also characteristic with features of non-equilibrium and historical marks. So it should be planned by combining with certain region's economic features and its economic development stage.
(2) Economic development stages have inner links with regional economic sustainable development. Economic development stages decide regional economic development tasks, economic development level, technology level, environmental and ecological norm, and so on. Therefore, starting from economic development stages, there is a regional economic sustainable development path which matches regional economic development stages, economic continuous growth, intensive growth, regional balance and pollution handle being four key problems on this path.
(3) The judgement of regional economic development stages may vary with different criteria. Every economic development stage matches certain economic tasks and responding industry types, but when regional economy is on one certain stage, its industries frequently don't all belong to the stage, but belong to different stages. The degree and variable trend of combined industries which belong to different stages reflects the evolution process of economic development stage.
(4) According to Four Stages division method, Jiangsu is at industrialized later period. According to fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, South Jiangsu, Middle Jiangsu and North Jiangsu are at post-industrialized period, industrialized later period and middle-stage industrialization respectively. In order to guarantee lasting growth of Jiangsu economy, Analytic Hierarchy Process should be utilized to choose leading industries and put them in order in South Jiangsu, Middle Jiangsu and North Jiangsu.
(5) Intensive economy and extensive economy are relative and they keep changing and are integrated into the process of economic development. Generally, at lower economic development stage, there exists more degree of extensive economy and less degree of intensive economy. But at higher economic development stage, there exists less degree of extensive economy and more degree of intensive economy. Short-term extensive economy can help accumulate capital and develop advanced technology, which are the basis of intensive economy, so short-term extensive growth is also a part of economic sustainable development.
(6) In order to attain the overall objective of Jiangsu economic sustainable development, it is necessary to narrow regional economic development gap, so economic investment or resource allocation among South Jiangsu, Middle Jiangsu and North Jiangsu should be regulated once again. Investment scale and direction should be regulated and optimized in terms of three regions' economic development stages and economic development features. At present, investment growth rate on Middle Jiangsu and North Jiangsu should be bigger than on South Jiangsu, which is beneficial to maintain the momentum of Middle Jiangsu and North Jiangsu's catching up with South Jiangsu.
(7) In order to attain the ideal game result of "making enterprises handle pollution voluntarily, government need know about the cost enterprises, have to pay for handling pollution, offer appropriate assistance fund to enterprises, cut down check cost, check enterprises'deeds of handling pollution, and lay down pollution fine high enough.
在以前,人们已经就区域经济可持续发展的内涵、理念及发展原则等诸方面取得了统一认识,在此基础上,本文就区域经济可持续发展的路径依赖、依据标准等问题进行进一步研究和探索。本文提出,区域经济可持续发展具有区域性和阶段性,实现区域经济可持续发展,不能要求全球、全国或区域内所有地区都按照统一的可持续性标准发展经济,而要根据区域经济特点和经济发展阶段确定。本文首先从区域经济可持续发展相关理论入手,提出经济发展阶段决定区域经济可持续发展路径的理论,并从经济持续增长、经济发展方式、区域均衡和生态环境质量等四个方面论述其作用机制及过程,然后对江苏经济进行实证分析,找出其经济可持续发展问题,最后根据江苏经济发展阶段提出基于差别化经济发展阶段的江苏经济可持续发展路径依赖。
研究最大创新点在于将区域经济可持续发展置于经济发展阶段的演进视角之下,充分考虑区域经济可持续发展的历史阶段性和区域差异性,提出了与经济发展阶段相匹配的区域经济可持续发展路径依赖,即保障区域经济持续增长的主导产业类型、合适的经济发展方式、区域均衡发展之策和环境保护之举,等等,研究体现了发展中国家的现实经济需求,提高了区域经济可持续发展理论的实践指导性。
研究采用动态与静态相结合、定性与定量相结合、理论与实证相结合等分析方法,还使用比较分析法、数学模型法、指标分析法、博弈模型法等。主要研究结论有：
(1)区域经济可持续发展是一个具有区域性、阶段性的规划问题。与区域经济特点及经济发展阶段相对应,区域经济可持续发展过程是一个非均衡的和烙有历史印记的发展过程,区域经济可持续发展路径需要结合区域经济特点和经济发展阶段确定。
(2)经济发展阶段与区域经济可持续发展之间有一种内在的联系。经济发展阶段决定区域经济发展任务、经济水平、技术水平、环境与生态标准等,所以,始于经济发展阶段,有一条与经济发展各阶段相匹配的区域经济可持续发展路径,其中经济持续增长、经济发展方式、区域均衡和污染治理是区域经济可持续发展路径上的关键问题。
(3)对经济发展阶段的划分常常因为依据的标准不同而不同,每一个经济发展阶段对应着一定的经济任务,匹配着相应的产业类型,但处于一定发展阶段的区域经济,其产业构成往往并不完全隶属于这一阶段,而是由隶属于不同阶段的产业混合组成,混合产业隶属于不同经济发展阶段程度及其变动趋势反映经济发展阶段的演进进程。
(4)根据“四阶段”划分法,江苏正处于工业化后期；根据模糊综合评价法,苏南、苏中、苏北正分别处于后工业化时期、工业化后期和工业化中期。为了保障江苏经济持续增长,可以运用层次分析法,对苏南、苏中、苏北的主导产业进行遴选和排序。
(5)集约型经济和粗放型经济是一种相对的关系,它们不断变化和统一于经济发展过程中。一般在经济发展低级阶段粗放型经济成份多一些,集约型经济成份少一些,而在经济发展高级阶段粗放型经济成份少一些,集约型经济成份多一些。短期的粗放型经济,有利于积累资本和开发先进的技术,而这些是集约型经济的基础,所以,短期的粗放型增长,也是实现经济可持续发展的一部分。
(6)为了实现江苏经济可持续发展目标,江苏必须缩小区域经济发展差距,需要重新调整经济资源在各区域的分配,需要根据经济发展阶段和区域经济特点调整与优化投资规模和去向,目前对于苏中、苏北的投资增幅应该大于对于苏南的投资增幅,这将有利于保持苏中、苏北对苏南的追赶态势。
(7)为了达到理想的治理污染的博弈结果,政府需要了解企业治理污染的成本高低、向企业提供适当的治理污染专项资金、降低污染检查成本、经常监督企业治理污染情况、设置足够高的污染罚款金额。
Sustainable development is a common land problem which is related to whole human beings. As a core problem of sustainable development, economic sustainable development is for long a quarrel or game focus among countries, especially between developed countries and developing ones. Frequently, economic development and sustainability are a couple of contradictions and economic development can easily run fast if sustainability is neglected, therefore, some developing countries or regions whose most important task is developing economy, often only catch sight of immediate interests and neglect sustainable development problems which are characteristic with external non-economy, while developed countries or regions who have experienced fast economic growth have reached high economic level, frequently attach importance to sustainability. In fact, although economic sustainability is of external non-economy, once a sustainable development problem indeed appears, the first and the most serious harm will fall upon the local country or region. Take pollution as an example, wherever pollution is created, it will firstly and seriously harm the local inhabitants and their descendents. Moreover, sustainable problem is often irreversible and if it delays being handled, it can't be handled or must be paid much more cost than at beginning. Therefore, as responsible managers or constructors of regional economy, they must take a broad and long-term view, stick to sustainable development theory and draw up appropriate regional economic development strategy which orients towards economic growth of sustainability, cleanness, efficiency, friendly environments, resource-saving, and fairness between and within generations.
However, in the past, people have only reached uniform recognition on connotation, idea and development principles of regional economic sustainability. On this basis, the paper researches and explores further on path dependent and criteria of regional economic development. The paper holds that regional economic sustainable development is characteristic with region and stage. To realize the aim of regional economic sustainable development, it is not required that the whole world, the whole country, or every region within a bigger region develop economy abiding by the absolutely uniform sustainable development standards, but it is required that every component region develop economy locally and gradually according to the region's economic development stages, regional economic development level, and regional economic features. The paper starts from related theories of regional economic sustainable development, put forward a theory that economic development stages determine the paths of regional economic sustainable development, and further discusses their function mechanism and process in economic lasting growth, economic development ways, regional equilibrium and ecological environment quality. Then Jiangsu economy is analysed empirically to discover its economic sustainable development problems. Finally Jiangsu economic sustainable development pathes dependent are suggested according to Jiangsu economic development stages.
The research's biggest innovation lies in that regional economic sustainable development problem is researched in the vision of economic development stages and put forward regional economic sustainable development path matching economic development stages, that is, corresponding to economic development stages, deciding regional economy's leading industry type, economic development model, equilibrium development method, environment conservation method, and so on, which reflects developing countries' reality economic demand and enhances the practical directing function of the regional economic sustainable development theory.
Research methods include combining dynamic analysis with static analysis, quantitative analysis with qualitative analysis, theoretical analysis with empirical analysis, as well as comparative method, mathematic model method, index method, game model method, and so on. Main conclusions of the research:
(1) Regional economic sustainable development is a problem related to region and stage, and in correspond to regional economic features and regional economic development stages, it is also characteristic with features of non-equilibrium and historical marks. So it should be planned by combining with certain region's economic features and its economic development stage.
(2) Economic development stages have inner links with regional economic sustainable development. Economic development stages decide regional economic development tasks, economic development level, technology level, environmental and ecological norm, and so on. Therefore, starting from economic development stages, there is a regional economic sustainable development path which matches regional economic development stages, economic continuous growth, intensive growth, regional balance and pollution handle being four key problems on this path.
(3) The judgement of regional economic development stages may vary with different criteria. Every economic development stage matches certain economic tasks and responding industry types, but when regional economy is on one certain stage, its industries frequently don't all belong to the stage, but belong to different stages. The degree and variable trend of combined industries which belong to different stages reflects the evolution process of economic development stage.
(4) According to Four Stages division method, Jiangsu is at industrialized later period. According to fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, South Jiangsu, Middle Jiangsu and North Jiangsu are at post-industrialized period, industrialized later period and middle-stage industrialization respectively. In order to guarantee lasting growth of Jiangsu economy, Analytic Hierarchy Process should be utilized to choose leading industries and put them in order in South Jiangsu, Middle Jiangsu and North Jiangsu.
(5) Intensive economy and extensive economy are relative and they keep changing and are integrated into the process of economic development. Generally, at lower economic development stage, there exists more degree of extensive economy and less degree of intensive economy. But at higher economic development stage, there exists less degree of extensive economy and more degree of intensive economy. Short-term extensive economy can help accumulate capital and develop advanced technology, which are the basis of intensive economy, so short-term extensive growth is also a part of economic sustainable development.
(6) In order to attain the overall objective of Jiangsu economic sustainable development, it is necessary to narrow regional economic development gap, so economic investment or resource allocation among South Jiangsu, Middle Jiangsu and North Jiangsu should be regulated once again. Investment scale and direction should be regulated and optimized in terms of three regions' economic development stages and economic development features. At present, investment growth rate on Middle Jiangsu and North Jiangsu should be bigger than on South Jiangsu, which is beneficial to maintain the momentum of Middle Jiangsu and North Jiangsu's catching up with South Jiangsu.
(7) In order to attain the ideal game result of "making enterprises handle pollution voluntarily, government need know about the cost enterprises, have to pay for handling pollution, offer appropriate assistance fund to enterprises, cut down check cost, check enterprises'deeds of handling pollution, and lay down pollution fine high enough.
引文
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