气候变化、品种更新和管理措施对我国水稻生育期及产量影响的研究
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摘要
农业生产系统是一个复杂的多因子动态系统,受气象、土壤、品种和栽培管理措施等多种因素的影响,从而使农业生产者难以综合考虑多因子互作、预测农业生产趋势并量化各因子对农作物生产的影响。作物生长模拟模型为定量描述作物生长发育过程及其与环境和技术的动态关系提供了新的方法和手段。本研究以我国4个典型的单季稻区和3个典型的双季稻区为对象,分析了1981-2009年水稻生育期内各气候要素的变化趋势,并利用水稻生长模拟模型(RiceGrow),探讨了气候变化对我国水稻生育期及产量的影响；进一步基于各典型站点1981-2009年的实测水稻田间数据,分析了气候变化条件下温度升高、品种更新及管理措施改变对水稻生育期及产量的影响；最后基于太湖稻区1980-1989年及2000-2009年的逐日气象数据和80年代及00年代的土壤养分数据,并结合水稻生长模型(APSIM-Oryza)及GIS空间分析技术,分析了太湖稻区气候条件和土壤属性的时空分布特征,定量了气候要素、土壤改良、品种更新及管理措施改变对太湖稻区水稻产量的影响。
基于中国水稻种植区划并结合水稻种植面积、单产、总产及水稻实测数据观测站点和气象站点的位置,在全国选取了7个典型的水稻种植站点(单季稻区：黑龙江的五常、河南的信阳、江苏的镇江、四川的汉源；双季稻区：江西的南昌、湖南的衡阳、广东的高要)作为研究对象,分析了水稻生育期内气候要素随时间的变化趋势；运用水稻生长模拟模型RiceGrow量化了气候变化对水稻生育期及产量的影响；采用统计学方法定量了气候变化条件下品种更新及栽培管理措施改变对水稻生育期及产量的影响。研究结果表明：单季稻区与双季稻区水稻生育期内气候要素的变化趋势不一致。其中单季稻区以温度升高、降雨量和日照时数降低为主,而双季稻区则以温度和降雨量升高,日照时数降低为主,且单季稻区气候要素的变化幅度大于双季稻区。从1981-2009年,五常、信阳、镇江和汉源(单季稻区)水稻生长季内,平均最高温度的年增长量分别为0.039,0.029,0.058和0.029℃/年；平均最低温度的年增长量分别为0.087,0.029,0.068和-0.001℃/年；温度日较差的年增长量分别为-0.048,-0.005,-0.010和0.039℃/年；总日照时数的年增长量分别为-4.80,-8.29,-1.56和-2.37小时/年；总降雨量的年增长量分别为-4.89,-1.26,1.00和-0.46毫米/年。南昌、衡阳和高要(双季稻区)早稻生长季内,平均最高温度的年增长量分别为0.029,0.045和0.0190C/年；平均最低温度的年增长量分别为0.012,0.039和-0.001℃/年；温度日较差的年增长量分别为0.013,0.008和0.016℃/年；南昌和衡阳的总日照时数变化幅度较小,而高要的总日照时数变化趋势明显,其年增长量为-6.86小时/年；三个站点总降雨量的变化趋势均不显著。南昌、衡阳和高要晚稻生长季内,平均最高温度的年增长量分别为0.068,0.029和0.003℃/年；平均最低温度的年增长量分别为0.077,0.039和-0.001℃/年；温度日较差的年增长量分别为-0.003,-0.010和0.016℃/年；与早稻相同,南昌和衡阳的总日照时数变化幅度较小,而高要的总日照时数变化趋势明显,其年增长量为-6.03小时／年；三个站点总降雨量的变化趋势均不显著。
通过分析模型(RiceGrow)模拟的结果发现,在品种、土壤及栽培管理措施均保持不变的情况下,温度的升高缩短了水稻的生育期天数,降低了水稻的产量。从1981-2009年,五常、信阳、镇江和汉源的水稻总生育期分别缩短了10.4、12.3、15.7和8.4天；南昌、衡阳和高要早稻及晚稻的总生育期分别缩短了8.4和10.6天,8.1和2.8天,2.8和1.7天。1981-2009年,五常、信阳、镇江和汉源的光温潜在产量和雨养产量分别降低了1038和1029kg·ha-1,1827和2024kg·ha-1,945和1012kg·ha-1,96和841kg·ha-1；南昌、衡阳和高要早稻的光温潜在产量和雨养产量分别下降了609和50kg·ha-1,661和284kg·ha-1,476和357kg·ha-1；晚稻的光温潜在产量和雨养产量则分别下降了684和319kg·ha-1,122和73kg·ha-1,1299和1070kg·ha-1。
进一步分析模型中各站点与水稻生育期有关的品种参数发现,品种的更新主要表现为播种至拔节阶段品种基本早熟性的降低及抽穗至成熟阶段基本灌浆因子的降低。另外,通过比较实测水稻生育期数据与模型模拟的结果发现,品种的更新能够抵消温度升高对单季稻生育期产生的负面影响,延长水稻的生育期长度,提高水稻的产量；然而品种更新未能抵消温度升高对双季稻生育期产生的负面影响,但仍可以提高水稻的产量。随着品种的更新,从1981-2009年,五常、信阳、镇江和汉源水稻的总生育期分别延长了3.9、14.8、9.8和-5.9天,产量分别增加了5600、2520、3080和-1680kg·ha-1；南昌、衡阳和高要早稻的总生育期分别缩短了1.7,1.1和8.7天,产量分别增加了840、280和1960kg·ha-1；晚稻的总生育期分别缩短了12.3,+5.0和11.8天,产量分别提高了840、1400和2240kg·ha-1。
通过对水稻的产量与品种及管理措施进行逐步多元回归发现,1981-2009年,我国水稻产量的提高主要是收获指数和每穗粒数增加的结果。另外,收获指数的提高与每穗粒数的相关性极为显著。30年间,五常、信阳、镇江和汉源水稻的收获指数分别提高0.12,0.09,0.29和-0.03；南昌、衡阳和高要早稻的收获指数分别提高0.12,0.06和0.20；晚稻的收获指数分别提高0.15,0.06和0.23。
应用GIS的空间分析技术,分析了太湖稻区气候要素和土壤养分的时空分布特征,并结合APSIM-Oryza模型情景模拟的结果,定量了气候要素、土壤改良、品种更新和管理措施改变对太湖区域水稻生产力的贡献。结果表明：与80年代相比,00年代太湖稻区水稻生育期内的平均最高、最低温度和温度日较差上升,总降雨量(除东北部地区)及日照时数下降,总降雨量的减少主要是由拔节至抽穗及抽穗至成熟阶段降雨量的减少造成的,而总日照时数的降低,则是拔节至抽穗阶段日照时数显著下降的结果；00年代土壤有机质、全氮、速效磷和速效钾的含量较80年代分别上升了15.85%、79.55%、124.55%和10.37%；太湖稻区00年代水稻的平均产量较80年代提高了46.3%；土壤、气候、品种及管理措施对太湖稻区水稻生产力的影响程度不同,与80年代相比,气候要素变化导致太湖稻区水稻减产19.5%,品种更新使太湖稻区水稻增产21.7%,管理措施改变使太湖稻区水稻增产34.6%,而在排除肥料影响的情况下(假设80年代和00年代的施肥量均为0),土壤改良使太湖区域水稻产量提高了12.7%。
Agricultural production system is a complex dynamic system, which is influenced by climate, soil, cultivars and management practices. So there is a great challenge for agricultural workers to comprehensively consider the effects of multi-factors interaction on crop production, because of the spatial and temporal variability of natural environment. However, crop growth simulation models could quantitatively describe and dynamically simulate the crop growth development and yield formation. It is an efficient means to assess the impact of environment and human activity on crop productivity, especially in regional area.Therefore, in this study we combined an analysis of climate and observed rice growth data with rice growth modeling (RiceGrow) to analyze the climate change during the rice growth periods and investigate the impact of changes in climate, rice cultivars and agronomic management on rice productivity in China. In addition, we combined the weather data, soil nutrients data, cultivars and management information in1980s and2000s with rice growth model (APSIM-Oryza) and GIS technology to simulate and quantify the effects of climate change, soil improvement, cultivars update and management practices change on rice productivity.
According to the regionalization of rice cropping in China with rice planting area, grain yield per unit, total grain yield, weather station locations and observed rice data locations, seven typical rice planting sites were selected in this study, which cover single and double rice cropping area (single rice cropping area includes Wuchang in Heilongjiang Province, Xinyang in Henan Province, Zhenjiang in Jiangsu province and Hanyuan in Sichuan Province; double rice cropping area includes Nanchang in Jiangxi Province, Hengyang in Hunan Province and Gaoyao in Guangdong Province). In this paper, the trends over time for each climate variable during the rice growth stages and the length of each stage were tested for significance at the5%level using the Student's t test. The statistical method was used to quantify the contributions of temperature and variety changes to variations in observed growth durations, and the effects of cultivar characteristics and agronomic factors on observed rice yields. The results in this study showed that the changes in climatic variables were not uniform between the single and double rice cropping areas. In the single rice cropping system (Wuchang, Xinyang, Zhenjiang and Hanyuan), the main changes of climate were increased in temperature and decreased in precipitation and sunshine hours. However, the main changes of climate in double rice cropping system (Nanchang, Hengyang and Gaoyao) were increased in temperature and precipitation and decreased in sunshine hours. In addition, the scope of climate change in single rice cropping system is greater than that in double rice cropping area. From1981to2009, the average maximum temperature during the whole growth period was increased by0.039℃per year at Wuchang,0.029℃per year at Xinyang,0.058℃per year at Zhenjiang and0.029℃per year at Hanyuan. The average minimum temperature was increased by0.087℃per year at Wuchang,0.029℃per year at Xinyang,0.068℃per year at Zhenjiang and-0.001℃per year at Hanyuan. The temperature difference was increased by-0.048,-0.005,-0.010and0.039℃per year at Wuchang, Xinyang, Zhenjiang and Hanyuan, respectively. The total sunshine hours during the whole growth period was decreased by-4.80,-8.29,-1.56and-2.37hours per year at Wuchang, Xinyang, Zhenjiang and Hanyuan, respectively, and the total precipitation was declined by-4.89,-1.26,1.00and-0.46mm per year. In double rice cropping system, the average maximum temperature has been increased by0.029,0.045and0.019℃per year at Nanchang, Hengyang and Gaoyao for early rice and0.068,0.029and0.003℃per year for late rice. At Nanchang, Hengyang and Gaoyao the average minimum temperature was increased by0.012,0.039and-0.001℃per year for early rice and0.077,0.039and-0.001℃per year for late rice. The temperature difference was increased by0.013,0.008and0.016℃per year for early rice and-0.003,-0.010and0.016℃per year for late rice at Nanchang, Hengyang and Gaoyao, respectively. During the whole rice growing period, the total precipitation at three double study sites was almost stable. The changes of sunshine hours at Nanchang and Hengyang for both early and late rice did not reach the significant level. However, the sunshine hours changed significantly at Gaoyao for both early and late rice and the scope is-6.86and-6.03hours per year.
One typical rice cultivar and traditional management practice in1980s was used in the model at each site for climate change simulation. The results showed that if there were no varieties, soil and management change, the global warming could have shortened the rice growing period and reduced the grain yield in both single and double rice cropping systems during the study period (1981-2009). From1981to2009, the duration of the whole growing period would have been shortened by10.4,12.315.7and8.4days at Wuchang, Xinyang, Zhenjiang and Hanyuan, respectively. At Nanchang, Hengyang and Gaoyao, the duration of the whole growing period would have been shortened by8.4and10.6,8.1and2.8,2.8and1.7days for early and late rice. The simulation results also showed that the changes of climate in the past3decades could have declined the rice yield. The potential and rainfed yields have been decreased by1038and1029kg-ha"1at Wuchang,1827and2024kg·ha-1at Xinyang,945and1012kg·ha-1at Zhenjiang and96and841kg·ha-1at Hanyuan. At Nanchang, Hengyang and Gaoyao, the potential and rainfed yields have been decreased by609and50kg·ha-1,661and284kg·ha-1,476and357kg-ha'1for early and late rice.
Further analysis of rice phenological parameters in the model showed that the varietal changes are mainly due to changes in intrinsic earliness (IE)(affecting the stage from sowing to jointing) and basic filling factor (BFF)(affecting the stage from heading to maturity). Compared the observed rice growth period data with the simulated one, we found that the improved cultivars could compensate the negative impact on rice growth period by global warming in single rice cropping area and improved the rice yield. However, the improved cultivars in double rice cropping area could not offset the negative impact on rice growth period caused by global warming, but could improve the yield for both early and late rice.
According to the statistical analysis, we found that the improved harvest index and grain numbers per spike contributed significantly to increase rice yield. Further analysis showed that the improvement of harvest index was mainly attributed to the increased grain numbers per spike. From1981to2009, the harvest index increased by0.12,0.09,0.29and-0.03at Wuchang, Xinyang, Zhenjiang and Hanyuan, respectively. At Nanchang, Hengyang and Gaoyao, the harvest index increased by0.12and0.15,0.06and0.06,-0.03and0.23for early and late rice, respectively.
The climate and soil data in1980s and2000s in Taihu region were analyzed by GIS technology. During the whole rice growing period, the average maximum, minimum temperature and the temperature difference in2000s in the Taihu Region were higher than that in1980s, while the total precipitation (except for northeast) and sunshine hours were lower than that in1980s. The declining of precipitation from jointing to heding and from heading to maturity was the reason of declining of total precipitation in the whole rice growing period. However, the declining of sunshine hours from jointing to heading was the reason of declining of total sunshine hours in the whole rice growing period. Compared with the soil nutrients data in1980s, the mean contents of soil organic matter, total nitrogen, available phosphorus and potassium in2000s in the Taihu Region increased by15.85%,79.55%,195.72%and10.37%, respectively. The average grain yield in2000s in the Taihu Region was increased by46.3%, which was caused by the interaction of climate, soil nutrients, cultivars and management. The contributions of climate, soil nutrients, cultivars and management on rice productivity were different. Compared with1980s, the yield in2000s decreased by19.5%which was caused by climate change, while the yield was increased by21.7%and34.6%due to cultivars update and management practices change, respectively. Without fertilizer application (assume the fertilizers rate is0in both1980s and2000s), the yield was increased by12.7%due to soil improvement.
基于中国水稻种植区划并结合水稻种植面积、单产、总产及水稻实测数据观测站点和气象站点的位置,在全国选取了7个典型的水稻种植站点(单季稻区：黑龙江的五常、河南的信阳、江苏的镇江、四川的汉源；双季稻区：江西的南昌、湖南的衡阳、广东的高要)作为研究对象,分析了水稻生育期内气候要素随时间的变化趋势；运用水稻生长模拟模型RiceGrow量化了气候变化对水稻生育期及产量的影响；采用统计学方法定量了气候变化条件下品种更新及栽培管理措施改变对水稻生育期及产量的影响。研究结果表明：单季稻区与双季稻区水稻生育期内气候要素的变化趋势不一致。其中单季稻区以温度升高、降雨量和日照时数降低为主,而双季稻区则以温度和降雨量升高,日照时数降低为主,且单季稻区气候要素的变化幅度大于双季稻区。从1981-2009年,五常、信阳、镇江和汉源(单季稻区)水稻生长季内,平均最高温度的年增长量分别为0.039,0.029,0.058和0.029℃/年；平均最低温度的年增长量分别为0.087,0.029,0.068和-0.001℃/年；温度日较差的年增长量分别为-0.048,-0.005,-0.010和0.039℃/年；总日照时数的年增长量分别为-4.80,-8.29,-1.56和-2.37小时/年；总降雨量的年增长量分别为-4.89,-1.26,1.00和-0.46毫米/年。南昌、衡阳和高要(双季稻区)早稻生长季内,平均最高温度的年增长量分别为0.029,0.045和0.0190C/年；平均最低温度的年增长量分别为0.012,0.039和-0.001℃/年；温度日较差的年增长量分别为0.013,0.008和0.016℃/年；南昌和衡阳的总日照时数变化幅度较小,而高要的总日照时数变化趋势明显,其年增长量为-6.86小时/年；三个站点总降雨量的变化趋势均不显著。南昌、衡阳和高要晚稻生长季内,平均最高温度的年增长量分别为0.068,0.029和0.003℃/年；平均最低温度的年增长量分别为0.077,0.039和-0.001℃/年；温度日较差的年增长量分别为-0.003,-0.010和0.016℃/年；与早稻相同,南昌和衡阳的总日照时数变化幅度较小,而高要的总日照时数变化趋势明显,其年增长量为-6.03小时／年；三个站点总降雨量的变化趋势均不显著。
通过分析模型(RiceGrow)模拟的结果发现,在品种、土壤及栽培管理措施均保持不变的情况下,温度的升高缩短了水稻的生育期天数,降低了水稻的产量。从1981-2009年,五常、信阳、镇江和汉源的水稻总生育期分别缩短了10.4、12.3、15.7和8.4天；南昌、衡阳和高要早稻及晚稻的总生育期分别缩短了8.4和10.6天,8.1和2.8天,2.8和1.7天。1981-2009年,五常、信阳、镇江和汉源的光温潜在产量和雨养产量分别降低了1038和1029kg·ha-1,1827和2024kg·ha-1,945和1012kg·ha-1,96和841kg·ha-1；南昌、衡阳和高要早稻的光温潜在产量和雨养产量分别下降了609和50kg·ha-1,661和284kg·ha-1,476和357kg·ha-1；晚稻的光温潜在产量和雨养产量则分别下降了684和319kg·ha-1,122和73kg·ha-1,1299和1070kg·ha-1。
进一步分析模型中各站点与水稻生育期有关的品种参数发现,品种的更新主要表现为播种至拔节阶段品种基本早熟性的降低及抽穗至成熟阶段基本灌浆因子的降低。另外,通过比较实测水稻生育期数据与模型模拟的结果发现,品种的更新能够抵消温度升高对单季稻生育期产生的负面影响,延长水稻的生育期长度,提高水稻的产量；然而品种更新未能抵消温度升高对双季稻生育期产生的负面影响,但仍可以提高水稻的产量。随着品种的更新,从1981-2009年,五常、信阳、镇江和汉源水稻的总生育期分别延长了3.9、14.8、9.8和-5.9天,产量分别增加了5600、2520、3080和-1680kg·ha-1；南昌、衡阳和高要早稻的总生育期分别缩短了1.7,1.1和8.7天,产量分别增加了840、280和1960kg·ha-1；晚稻的总生育期分别缩短了12.3,+5.0和11.8天,产量分别提高了840、1400和2240kg·ha-1。
通过对水稻的产量与品种及管理措施进行逐步多元回归发现,1981-2009年,我国水稻产量的提高主要是收获指数和每穗粒数增加的结果。另外,收获指数的提高与每穗粒数的相关性极为显著。30年间,五常、信阳、镇江和汉源水稻的收获指数分别提高0.12,0.09,0.29和-0.03；南昌、衡阳和高要早稻的收获指数分别提高0.12,0.06和0.20；晚稻的收获指数分别提高0.15,0.06和0.23。
应用GIS的空间分析技术,分析了太湖稻区气候要素和土壤养分的时空分布特征,并结合APSIM-Oryza模型情景模拟的结果,定量了气候要素、土壤改良、品种更新和管理措施改变对太湖区域水稻生产力的贡献。结果表明：与80年代相比,00年代太湖稻区水稻生育期内的平均最高、最低温度和温度日较差上升,总降雨量(除东北部地区)及日照时数下降,总降雨量的减少主要是由拔节至抽穗及抽穗至成熟阶段降雨量的减少造成的,而总日照时数的降低,则是拔节至抽穗阶段日照时数显著下降的结果；00年代土壤有机质、全氮、速效磷和速效钾的含量较80年代分别上升了15.85%、79.55%、124.55%和10.37%；太湖稻区00年代水稻的平均产量较80年代提高了46.3%；土壤、气候、品种及管理措施对太湖稻区水稻生产力的影响程度不同,与80年代相比,气候要素变化导致太湖稻区水稻减产19.5%,品种更新使太湖稻区水稻增产21.7%,管理措施改变使太湖稻区水稻增产34.6%,而在排除肥料影响的情况下(假设80年代和00年代的施肥量均为0),土壤改良使太湖区域水稻产量提高了12.7%。
Agricultural production system is a complex dynamic system, which is influenced by climate, soil, cultivars and management practices. So there is a great challenge for agricultural workers to comprehensively consider the effects of multi-factors interaction on crop production, because of the spatial and temporal variability of natural environment. However, crop growth simulation models could quantitatively describe and dynamically simulate the crop growth development and yield formation. It is an efficient means to assess the impact of environment and human activity on crop productivity, especially in regional area.Therefore, in this study we combined an analysis of climate and observed rice growth data with rice growth modeling (RiceGrow) to analyze the climate change during the rice growth periods and investigate the impact of changes in climate, rice cultivars and agronomic management on rice productivity in China. In addition, we combined the weather data, soil nutrients data, cultivars and management information in1980s and2000s with rice growth model (APSIM-Oryza) and GIS technology to simulate and quantify the effects of climate change, soil improvement, cultivars update and management practices change on rice productivity.
According to the regionalization of rice cropping in China with rice planting area, grain yield per unit, total grain yield, weather station locations and observed rice data locations, seven typical rice planting sites were selected in this study, which cover single and double rice cropping area (single rice cropping area includes Wuchang in Heilongjiang Province, Xinyang in Henan Province, Zhenjiang in Jiangsu province and Hanyuan in Sichuan Province; double rice cropping area includes Nanchang in Jiangxi Province, Hengyang in Hunan Province and Gaoyao in Guangdong Province). In this paper, the trends over time for each climate variable during the rice growth stages and the length of each stage were tested for significance at the5%level using the Student's t test. The statistical method was used to quantify the contributions of temperature and variety changes to variations in observed growth durations, and the effects of cultivar characteristics and agronomic factors on observed rice yields. The results in this study showed that the changes in climatic variables were not uniform between the single and double rice cropping areas. In the single rice cropping system (Wuchang, Xinyang, Zhenjiang and Hanyuan), the main changes of climate were increased in temperature and decreased in precipitation and sunshine hours. However, the main changes of climate in double rice cropping system (Nanchang, Hengyang and Gaoyao) were increased in temperature and precipitation and decreased in sunshine hours. In addition, the scope of climate change in single rice cropping system is greater than that in double rice cropping area. From1981to2009, the average maximum temperature during the whole growth period was increased by0.039℃per year at Wuchang,0.029℃per year at Xinyang,0.058℃per year at Zhenjiang and0.029℃per year at Hanyuan. The average minimum temperature was increased by0.087℃per year at Wuchang,0.029℃per year at Xinyang,0.068℃per year at Zhenjiang and-0.001℃per year at Hanyuan. The temperature difference was increased by-0.048,-0.005,-0.010and0.039℃per year at Wuchang, Xinyang, Zhenjiang and Hanyuan, respectively. The total sunshine hours during the whole growth period was decreased by-4.80,-8.29,-1.56and-2.37hours per year at Wuchang, Xinyang, Zhenjiang and Hanyuan, respectively, and the total precipitation was declined by-4.89,-1.26,1.00and-0.46mm per year. In double rice cropping system, the average maximum temperature has been increased by0.029,0.045and0.019℃per year at Nanchang, Hengyang and Gaoyao for early rice and0.068,0.029and0.003℃per year for late rice. At Nanchang, Hengyang and Gaoyao the average minimum temperature was increased by0.012,0.039and-0.001℃per year for early rice and0.077,0.039and-0.001℃per year for late rice. The temperature difference was increased by0.013,0.008and0.016℃per year for early rice and-0.003,-0.010and0.016℃per year for late rice at Nanchang, Hengyang and Gaoyao, respectively. During the whole rice growing period, the total precipitation at three double study sites was almost stable. The changes of sunshine hours at Nanchang and Hengyang for both early and late rice did not reach the significant level. However, the sunshine hours changed significantly at Gaoyao for both early and late rice and the scope is-6.86and-6.03hours per year.
One typical rice cultivar and traditional management practice in1980s was used in the model at each site for climate change simulation. The results showed that if there were no varieties, soil and management change, the global warming could have shortened the rice growing period and reduced the grain yield in both single and double rice cropping systems during the study period (1981-2009). From1981to2009, the duration of the whole growing period would have been shortened by10.4,12.315.7and8.4days at Wuchang, Xinyang, Zhenjiang and Hanyuan, respectively. At Nanchang, Hengyang and Gaoyao, the duration of the whole growing period would have been shortened by8.4and10.6,8.1and2.8,2.8and1.7days for early and late rice. The simulation results also showed that the changes of climate in the past3decades could have declined the rice yield. The potential and rainfed yields have been decreased by1038and1029kg-ha"1at Wuchang,1827and2024kg·ha-1at Xinyang,945and1012kg·ha-1at Zhenjiang and96and841kg·ha-1at Hanyuan. At Nanchang, Hengyang and Gaoyao, the potential and rainfed yields have been decreased by609and50kg·ha-1,661and284kg·ha-1,476and357kg-ha'1for early and late rice.
Further analysis of rice phenological parameters in the model showed that the varietal changes are mainly due to changes in intrinsic earliness (IE)(affecting the stage from sowing to jointing) and basic filling factor (BFF)(affecting the stage from heading to maturity). Compared the observed rice growth period data with the simulated one, we found that the improved cultivars could compensate the negative impact on rice growth period by global warming in single rice cropping area and improved the rice yield. However, the improved cultivars in double rice cropping area could not offset the negative impact on rice growth period caused by global warming, but could improve the yield for both early and late rice.
According to the statistical analysis, we found that the improved harvest index and grain numbers per spike contributed significantly to increase rice yield. Further analysis showed that the improvement of harvest index was mainly attributed to the increased grain numbers per spike. From1981to2009, the harvest index increased by0.12,0.09,0.29and-0.03at Wuchang, Xinyang, Zhenjiang and Hanyuan, respectively. At Nanchang, Hengyang and Gaoyao, the harvest index increased by0.12and0.15,0.06and0.06,-0.03and0.23for early and late rice, respectively.
The climate and soil data in1980s and2000s in Taihu region were analyzed by GIS technology. During the whole rice growing period, the average maximum, minimum temperature and the temperature difference in2000s in the Taihu Region were higher than that in1980s, while the total precipitation (except for northeast) and sunshine hours were lower than that in1980s. The declining of precipitation from jointing to heding and from heading to maturity was the reason of declining of total precipitation in the whole rice growing period. However, the declining of sunshine hours from jointing to heading was the reason of declining of total sunshine hours in the whole rice growing period. Compared with the soil nutrients data in1980s, the mean contents of soil organic matter, total nitrogen, available phosphorus and potassium in2000s in the Taihu Region increased by15.85%,79.55%,195.72%and10.37%, respectively. The average grain yield in2000s in the Taihu Region was increased by46.3%, which was caused by the interaction of climate, soil nutrients, cultivars and management. The contributions of climate, soil nutrients, cultivars and management on rice productivity were different. Compared with1980s, the yield in2000s decreased by19.5%which was caused by climate change, while the yield was increased by21.7%and34.6%due to cultivars update and management practices change, respectively. Without fertilizer application (assume the fertilizers rate is0in both1980s and2000s), the yield was increased by12.7%due to soil improvement.
引文
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