我国实施通货膨胀目标制的可行性研究
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摘要
通货膨胀目标制是20世纪90年代出现的一种新兴的货币政策框架,它实现了规则性和灵活性的高度统一。严重的通货膨胀压力、货币政策效力下降以及中央银行独立性加强的制度性变更,使得许多国家放弃了传统的货币政策框架,纷纷转向通货膨胀目标制。实践证明,通货膨胀目标制在降低通货膨胀率、稳定物价、改善经济运行环境、推动经济增长和提高货币政策的透明度以及增强公众对政府的信任度等方面取得了显著成效。而我国目前实施的是钉住双目标的货币政策框架,双目标的设定制度存在着严重的内存冲突,使得我国货币政策作用的效果大打折扣。在这种背景下,将通货膨胀目标作为我国货币政策的名义锚具有一定的合理性。因此,为加强中央银行独立性、提升货币政策的前瞻性和有效性,我国实施通货膨胀目标制这一货币政策框架是现实的需要。
首先,文章通过对通货膨胀目标制的概念及实践情况的全面系统地介绍,为我国货币政策框架的构建提供了借鉴的思路；其次,从中介目标角度,文章运用Granger因果关系检验,对1996-2008年的数据进行实证分析,研究发现我国货币供应量目标的可控性、可测性下降以及与货币政策的最终目标的函数关系变得不稳定,使得货币供应量目标的有效性下降。钉住汇率目标造成了国际贸易的双顺差,这种双顺差局面导致的货币供给的内生性又严重干扰了货币供应量目标；从传导机制角度,文章运用协整检验(Cointegration Test)与向量误差修正(Vector Error Correction, VEC)模型及在其基础之上的格兰杰因果检验和脉冲响应函数,对我国在2000-2008年期间的货币政策传导机制进行实证分析,研究发现货币渠道和信用渠道在传导货币政策过程中的作用都不是很显著。相比而言,在我国货币渠道的有效性要比信用渠道传导的有效性大；最后,文章结合实施通货膨胀目标制所需要的前提条件,分析我国实施通货膨胀目标制的可能性,运用可变参数模型(time-varying parameter model),估算出我国通货膨胀的最优水平,以此作为我国通货膨胀的目标值,同时采用状态空间模型(state space model)对GDP和CPI之间关系进行拟合,基于以上分析文章提出了我国转型期实施通货膨胀目标制的构想。
Appeared in the 1990s, Inflation targeting, which greatly unified regularity and flexibility together, is a new monetary framework. Many countries gave up the traditional monetary framework and turned to inflation targeting under the circumstance of serious inflationary pressure, loss of effectiveness of monetary policy, and institutional change of independence strengthening of central bank. The practice has proved that the inflation targeting has gained a great achievement in different aspects, for example, lowering inflation rate and stabilizing commodity prices, improving the environment for economic performance and fuelling economic growth, enhancing the transparency of monetary policy, strengthening people's trust and confidence to government, and so on. In China, we implemented the monetary policy of double nominal anchor pegging. However, this policy has serious memory conflict existed which resulted in facing with the dilemma in our monetary policy implementation process. At the same time, it makes the effect of our monetary policy have a greatly reduced quality. Against this background, it is will be a rational choice for our country to take inflation target reducing as the nominal anchor of our monetary policy. Therefore, to strengthen the independence of central bank and to improve perspectiveness and effectiveness of monetary policy, now it is a cryingneed to do a positively feasibility study of Inflation Targeting Implementation in our country.
At first, according to the systematical introduction to inflation targeting and deep analysis of inflation targeting implementation conditions, it provides a reference to reconstruction of our monetary framework. Secondly, from the angle of intermediate target and Granger casual relationship test, through empirical analysis in the data during 1996-2008, it found that the money supply controllability and measurability decreasing and the functional relationship of final target of monetary policy becoming instable, caused effectiveness decreasing of money supply target. However, pegging exchange rate targeting results in international trade double surplus, this situation caused by pairs of endophytism of money supply has seriously interfered with the money supply targeting. From the angle of conduction mechanism, using Cointegration Test, Vector Error Correction, Granger casual relationship test and impulse response function to do an analysis to our conduction mechanism of monetary policy from 2000 to 2008, it also found that the monetary channel and trust channel did not play an important role in conduction mechanism of monetary policy during the period of 2000-2008. In contrast, it is more effective to apply monetary channel as conduction mechanism of monetary policy instead of trust channel in our country. At last, combined with required precondition of inflation targeting implementation, it analyzed the probability of implementing inflation targeting in our country. It evaluated the optimal level of inflation on the basis of applying time-varying parameter model and made it to be the target value of inflation. At the same time, applying state space model to fit the relationship between GDP and CPI, Based on the above analysis, it puts forwark China's implementation of the concept of inflation targeting in transition period.
首先,文章通过对通货膨胀目标制的概念及实践情况的全面系统地介绍,为我国货币政策框架的构建提供了借鉴的思路；其次,从中介目标角度,文章运用Granger因果关系检验,对1996-2008年的数据进行实证分析,研究发现我国货币供应量目标的可控性、可测性下降以及与货币政策的最终目标的函数关系变得不稳定,使得货币供应量目标的有效性下降。钉住汇率目标造成了国际贸易的双顺差,这种双顺差局面导致的货币供给的内生性又严重干扰了货币供应量目标；从传导机制角度,文章运用协整检验(Cointegration Test)与向量误差修正(Vector Error Correction, VEC)模型及在其基础之上的格兰杰因果检验和脉冲响应函数,对我国在2000-2008年期间的货币政策传导机制进行实证分析,研究发现货币渠道和信用渠道在传导货币政策过程中的作用都不是很显著。相比而言,在我国货币渠道的有效性要比信用渠道传导的有效性大；最后,文章结合实施通货膨胀目标制所需要的前提条件,分析我国实施通货膨胀目标制的可能性,运用可变参数模型(time-varying parameter model),估算出我国通货膨胀的最优水平,以此作为我国通货膨胀的目标值,同时采用状态空间模型(state space model)对GDP和CPI之间关系进行拟合,基于以上分析文章提出了我国转型期实施通货膨胀目标制的构想。
Appeared in the 1990s, Inflation targeting, which greatly unified regularity and flexibility together, is a new monetary framework. Many countries gave up the traditional monetary framework and turned to inflation targeting under the circumstance of serious inflationary pressure, loss of effectiveness of monetary policy, and institutional change of independence strengthening of central bank. The practice has proved that the inflation targeting has gained a great achievement in different aspects, for example, lowering inflation rate and stabilizing commodity prices, improving the environment for economic performance and fuelling economic growth, enhancing the transparency of monetary policy, strengthening people's trust and confidence to government, and so on. In China, we implemented the monetary policy of double nominal anchor pegging. However, this policy has serious memory conflict existed which resulted in facing with the dilemma in our monetary policy implementation process. At the same time, it makes the effect of our monetary policy have a greatly reduced quality. Against this background, it is will be a rational choice for our country to take inflation target reducing as the nominal anchor of our monetary policy. Therefore, to strengthen the independence of central bank and to improve perspectiveness and effectiveness of monetary policy, now it is a cryingneed to do a positively feasibility study of Inflation Targeting Implementation in our country.
At first, according to the systematical introduction to inflation targeting and deep analysis of inflation targeting implementation conditions, it provides a reference to reconstruction of our monetary framework. Secondly, from the angle of intermediate target and Granger casual relationship test, through empirical analysis in the data during 1996-2008, it found that the money supply controllability and measurability decreasing and the functional relationship of final target of monetary policy becoming instable, caused effectiveness decreasing of money supply target. However, pegging exchange rate targeting results in international trade double surplus, this situation caused by pairs of endophytism of money supply has seriously interfered with the money supply targeting. From the angle of conduction mechanism, using Cointegration Test, Vector Error Correction, Granger casual relationship test and impulse response function to do an analysis to our conduction mechanism of monetary policy from 2000 to 2008, it also found that the monetary channel and trust channel did not play an important role in conduction mechanism of monetary policy during the period of 2000-2008. In contrast, it is more effective to apply monetary channel as conduction mechanism of monetary policy instead of trust channel in our country. At last, combined with required precondition of inflation targeting implementation, it analyzed the probability of implementing inflation targeting in our country. It evaluated the optimal level of inflation on the basis of applying time-varying parameter model and made it to be the target value of inflation. At the same time, applying state space model to fit the relationship between GDP and CPI, Based on the above analysis, it puts forwark China's implementation of the concept of inflation targeting in transition period.
引文
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