日本海海平面年际变化及其对ENSO的响应
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摘要
本文使用相关分析、EOF分析与小波分析等高级统计方法,对比中国南海深入地研究了日本海海平面与热容海平面年际变化及其对ENSO的响应,并对ENSO循环影响日本海海平面年际变化可能的物理机制进行了详细探讨。研究发现,日本海海平面与热容海平面年际变化受到ENSO循环的调制,对ENSO循环有明显的响应；同时也发现,日本海海平面与热容海平面又具有显著的年代际变化特征,其年代际变化受太平洋十年涛动PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation)冷暖位相变化的控制。
依据Ishii (2003,2006)等所发布的全球海洋温度、盐度数据集,首先计算获得了中国南海与日本海的热容海平面异常时间序列,时间周期为1945年01月-2005年12月。然后,讨论了热容海平面与观测海平面的相关性,同时研究了热容海平面异常与厄尔尼诺／南方涛动的相关性。日本海热容海平面异常与海平面异常存在较强的正相关,因此,日本海域热容海平面异常是海平面变化的主要原因。经研究发现,由高度计测量与“重建海表面高度数据”所获得的海平面异常和由再分析数据所获得的热容海平面异常与SOI都存在强的相关性；特别是近30年(1976-2005),南海海平面异常与SOI存在正相关,而日本海海平面异常与SOI存在负相关。日本海与南海都是半封闭海,它们之间有许多相似的特征。本文简单分析南海海平面年际变化对ENSO响应,其主要目的在于检验本文所使用研究方法的可靠性与正确性；同时对比南海,可以看出日本海海平面与南海海平面存在不同的年际变化规律。南海海平面年际变化的特点是上下层海水温度异常对SOI的响应不同,南海海平面变化与SOI的相关性主要是通过下层海水温度来影响的。下层海水温度决定了南海热容海平面的变化,从而影响了海平面变化与SOI的相关性。经研究发现,近30年(1976-2005),日本海整个海域的热容海平面变化趋势在厄尔尼诺时间尺度(2-7年)上存在较大差异。相对西北日本海域,东南日本海热容海平面异常对SOI响应较快,与SOI的相关性更强；从时间上来看,日本海海平面还存在明显的年代际变化特征。在PDO暖位相时期(1976年之后),日本海海平面和热容海平面与SOI存在强的负相关；而在PDO冷位相时期(1976年之前),日本海海平面和热容海平面与SOI却存在正相关。日本海热容海平面第1主成分的方差贡献为89%,其第1特征向量的空间分布显示,日本海在东南沿岸海域出现了较大的振幅,而在西北部海域则出现了较小的振幅,这说明东南日本海对整个日本海热容海平面的贡献较大。最后通过小波变换和小波相干分析,进一步验证了本文所得出的结论。在厄尔尼诺时间尺度(2-7年)上,日本海区域平均热容海平面异常与SOI存在强的相干性,在PDO冷位相时期,日本海热容海平面与SOI的位相基本相同,这说明两者之间存在正相关；在PDO暖位相时期,热容海平面与SOI却呈现反相位关系,且相干性更强,即在此期间两者存在更强的负相关。通过对SODA数据集进行分析,发现ENSO循环通过影响日本海与其邻海的水交换以及风应力的变化,最终影响到日本海海平面和热容海平面的年际变化。在PDO暖位相时期,SOI负异常导致日本海西北向风应力(东南风)与日本海热通量正异常,从而日本海海平面与热容海平面升高；在PDO冷位相阶段,SOI负异常引起日本海东北向风应力(西南风)正异常与日本海热通量负异常,从而日本海海平面与热容海平面降低。通过对CMAP降水数据进行研究,发现日本海降水与日本海海平面、热容海平面都存在强的正相关,而且东南日本海的相关性要强于西北日本海。一方面,日本海降水异常可能影响日本海海平面与热容海平面的变化,另一方面,日本海海平面以及热容海平面的变化也可能导致日本海降水异常的产生。
Comparing with the South China Sea (SCS), this study makes some investigations on the interannual variability of the sea level and thermosteric sea level in the Japan/East Sea (JES) and its response to ENSO, using a variety of mathematical methods, include the filter method, the correlative analysis, Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis, regression analysis, the wavelet transform and wavelet analysis method. The possible physical mechanism and characteristics of the sea level interannual variability in the Japan/East Sea (JES) are studied.
The thermosteric sea level anomalies from 1945.01 through 2005.12 obtained by using the global ocean temperature data sets recently published (Ishii et al.,2003, 2006) are used to investigate the interannual variability of sea level in the South China Sea (SCS) and Japan/East Sea (JES) and its response to El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Both the interannual variations of the sea level and the thermosteric sea level obtained from reanalyzed data are closely related to ENSO. As a result, one important consequence is that the sea level trends are mainly caused by thermal expansion. The sea surface temperature anomalies and the seawater temperature anomalies in the layers deeper than 125m have inverse response to ENSO in the SCS. The whole regional thermosteric sea level trends are not stationary on ENSO time scales in the JES. An'enigma'that the correlation between sea level variability and ENSO during the period 1976-2005 is inconsistent with that during the period 1945-1975 in the Japan/East Sea is revealed. The thermosteric sea-level trends and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) suggested a strong negative correlation during the period 1976-2005, whereas it appeared to be a weak relatively positive correlation during the period 1945-1975 in the Japan/East Sea. Analyses based on 'Empirical Orthogonal Function'show that the interannual variability of the thermosteric sea-level during the period 1976-2005 is dominated by the signatures of ENSO. The technique of wavelet coherence analysis is introduced and used to explore relationships between thermosteric sea-level in the Japan/East Sea and ENSO. The thermosteric sea-level and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) show significant coherence on ENSO time scales during the period 1976-2005. The current fields and wind stress fields obtained by using the SODA (Simple Ocean Data Assimilation) data, and the precipitation obtained by using the CMAP (CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation) data, are used to investigate the possible physical mechanism of interannual variability of sea level in the Japan/East Sea (JES).
依据Ishii (2003,2006)等所发布的全球海洋温度、盐度数据集,首先计算获得了中国南海与日本海的热容海平面异常时间序列,时间周期为1945年01月-2005年12月。然后,讨论了热容海平面与观测海平面的相关性,同时研究了热容海平面异常与厄尔尼诺／南方涛动的相关性。日本海热容海平面异常与海平面异常存在较强的正相关,因此,日本海域热容海平面异常是海平面变化的主要原因。经研究发现,由高度计测量与“重建海表面高度数据”所获得的海平面异常和由再分析数据所获得的热容海平面异常与SOI都存在强的相关性；特别是近30年(1976-2005),南海海平面异常与SOI存在正相关,而日本海海平面异常与SOI存在负相关。日本海与南海都是半封闭海,它们之间有许多相似的特征。本文简单分析南海海平面年际变化对ENSO响应,其主要目的在于检验本文所使用研究方法的可靠性与正确性；同时对比南海,可以看出日本海海平面与南海海平面存在不同的年际变化规律。南海海平面年际变化的特点是上下层海水温度异常对SOI的响应不同,南海海平面变化与SOI的相关性主要是通过下层海水温度来影响的。下层海水温度决定了南海热容海平面的变化,从而影响了海平面变化与SOI的相关性。经研究发现,近30年(1976-2005),日本海整个海域的热容海平面变化趋势在厄尔尼诺时间尺度(2-7年)上存在较大差异。相对西北日本海域,东南日本海热容海平面异常对SOI响应较快,与SOI的相关性更强；从时间上来看,日本海海平面还存在明显的年代际变化特征。在PDO暖位相时期(1976年之后),日本海海平面和热容海平面与SOI存在强的负相关；而在PDO冷位相时期(1976年之前),日本海海平面和热容海平面与SOI却存在正相关。日本海热容海平面第1主成分的方差贡献为89%,其第1特征向量的空间分布显示,日本海在东南沿岸海域出现了较大的振幅,而在西北部海域则出现了较小的振幅,这说明东南日本海对整个日本海热容海平面的贡献较大。最后通过小波变换和小波相干分析,进一步验证了本文所得出的结论。在厄尔尼诺时间尺度(2-7年)上,日本海区域平均热容海平面异常与SOI存在强的相干性,在PDO冷位相时期,日本海热容海平面与SOI的位相基本相同,这说明两者之间存在正相关；在PDO暖位相时期,热容海平面与SOI却呈现反相位关系,且相干性更强,即在此期间两者存在更强的负相关。通过对SODA数据集进行分析,发现ENSO循环通过影响日本海与其邻海的水交换以及风应力的变化,最终影响到日本海海平面和热容海平面的年际变化。在PDO暖位相时期,SOI负异常导致日本海西北向风应力(东南风)与日本海热通量正异常,从而日本海海平面与热容海平面升高；在PDO冷位相阶段,SOI负异常引起日本海东北向风应力(西南风)正异常与日本海热通量负异常,从而日本海海平面与热容海平面降低。通过对CMAP降水数据进行研究,发现日本海降水与日本海海平面、热容海平面都存在强的正相关,而且东南日本海的相关性要强于西北日本海。一方面,日本海降水异常可能影响日本海海平面与热容海平面的变化,另一方面,日本海海平面以及热容海平面的变化也可能导致日本海降水异常的产生。
Comparing with the South China Sea (SCS), this study makes some investigations on the interannual variability of the sea level and thermosteric sea level in the Japan/East Sea (JES) and its response to ENSO, using a variety of mathematical methods, include the filter method, the correlative analysis, Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis, regression analysis, the wavelet transform and wavelet analysis method. The possible physical mechanism and characteristics of the sea level interannual variability in the Japan/East Sea (JES) are studied.
The thermosteric sea level anomalies from 1945.01 through 2005.12 obtained by using the global ocean temperature data sets recently published (Ishii et al.,2003, 2006) are used to investigate the interannual variability of sea level in the South China Sea (SCS) and Japan/East Sea (JES) and its response to El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Both the interannual variations of the sea level and the thermosteric sea level obtained from reanalyzed data are closely related to ENSO. As a result, one important consequence is that the sea level trends are mainly caused by thermal expansion. The sea surface temperature anomalies and the seawater temperature anomalies in the layers deeper than 125m have inverse response to ENSO in the SCS. The whole regional thermosteric sea level trends are not stationary on ENSO time scales in the JES. An'enigma'that the correlation between sea level variability and ENSO during the period 1976-2005 is inconsistent with that during the period 1945-1975 in the Japan/East Sea is revealed. The thermosteric sea-level trends and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) suggested a strong negative correlation during the period 1976-2005, whereas it appeared to be a weak relatively positive correlation during the period 1945-1975 in the Japan/East Sea. Analyses based on 'Empirical Orthogonal Function'show that the interannual variability of the thermosteric sea-level during the period 1976-2005 is dominated by the signatures of ENSO. The technique of wavelet coherence analysis is introduced and used to explore relationships between thermosteric sea-level in the Japan/East Sea and ENSO. The thermosteric sea-level and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) show significant coherence on ENSO time scales during the period 1976-2005. The current fields and wind stress fields obtained by using the SODA (Simple Ocean Data Assimilation) data, and the precipitation obtained by using the CMAP (CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation) data, are used to investigate the possible physical mechanism of interannual variability of sea level in the Japan/East Sea (JES).
引文
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