基于风险分析的化工园区布局优化方法研究
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摘要
在建立化工设备失效概率修正因子指标体系的基础上,提出了基于多层次灰色评价法的化工设备失效概率修正模型；通过构建事故后果计算程序并对池火灾、蒸气云爆炸及中毒进行模拟,确定了热辐射、爆炸冲击波及中毒的影响范围；提出了化工园区布局程序,建立了以事故风险和经济收益为两个优化目标的化工园区布局优化模型；从算法的正确性、有效性及其搜索性能上提出了评价化工园区布局优化算法性能的准则；对比研究了向量评价遗传算法(VEGA)、非劣排序遗传算法-Ⅱ(NSGA-Ⅱ)及基于确定性拥挤机制的小生境遗传算法(DCGA)三种算法对无约束条件下化工园区进行布局优化的结果,通过分析三种算法的适用性,提出了适用于化工园区布局优化的方法-——DCGA算法,基于各工业土地利用类型个人风险数据与个人风险衰减函数,得出了各工业土地利用类型下个人风险衰减修正系数的动态变化规律,并运用DCGA算法实现了工程实例所建模型的无约束、有约束及提高约束条件后的有约束优化求解,得到了不同情况下的布局优化方案。
The chemical equipment failure probability correction model based on multi-layer grey evaluation method was put forward, on the basis of the constructed index system of the chemical equipment failure probability correction factor. The influential scope of thermal radiation, explosion shock wave and poisoning were identified, by constructing the calculation program for accident consequences and simulating the pool fire, vapor cloud explosion and poisoning. Then, Layout program of the chemical industry park was proposed, the chemical industry park layout optimization model that accident risk and economic benefit were taken as two optimized targets was established. From the correctness, effectiveness and search performance of the algorithm, the performance evaluation criterias of optimization algorithm for the chemical industry park layout were put forward. A comparative research on optimization results of the chemical industry park layout under the unconstrained condition among vector evaluated genetic algorithm (VEGA), non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II (NSGA-Ⅱ) and niche genetic algorithm based on the deterministic crowding mechanism (DCGA) was made, the method which applied to optimization of the chemical industry park layout was put forward, that was DCGA. At last, according to the datas and the attenuation function of individual risk for every industry land use type, the dynamic variation rules of the attenuation correction coefficient of individual risk for land use types were obtained, unconstrained optimization, constrained optimization and improved constrained optimization solution of the model constructed in the engineering case were realized by using DCGA, several layout optimization schemes under different conditions were obtained.
The chemical equipment failure probability correction model based on multi-layer grey evaluation method was put forward, on the basis of the constructed index system of the chemical equipment failure probability correction factor. The influential scope of thermal radiation, explosion shock wave and poisoning were identified, by constructing the calculation program for accident consequences and simulating the pool fire, vapor cloud explosion and poisoning. Then, Layout program of the chemical industry park was proposed, the chemical industry park layout optimization model that accident risk and economic benefit were taken as two optimized targets was established. From the correctness, effectiveness and search performance of the algorithm, the performance evaluation criterias of optimization algorithm for the chemical industry park layout were put forward. A comparative research on optimization results of the chemical industry park layout under the unconstrained condition among vector evaluated genetic algorithm (VEGA), non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II (NSGA-Ⅱ) and niche genetic algorithm based on the deterministic crowding mechanism (DCGA) was made, the method which applied to optimization of the chemical industry park layout was put forward, that was DCGA. At last, according to the datas and the attenuation function of individual risk for every industry land use type, the dynamic variation rules of the attenuation correction coefficient of individual risk for land use types were obtained, unconstrained optimization, constrained optimization and improved constrained optimization solution of the model constructed in the engineering case were realized by using DCGA, several layout optimization schemes under different conditions were obtained.
引文
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