供应突发事件的应对策略研究
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摘要
当今世界供应链管理发展的两大趋势是精益化和全球化。这两大供应链管理的发展方向确实使得崇尚这种理念的企业和供应链获得了巨大的效益。随着精益化和全球化的管理理念在全球日益盛行,供应链变得越来越精益和复杂,人们发现这种供应链模式往往非常脆弱。突发事件一旦发生,往往会对这类人们精心设计和运作良好供应链造成巨大的负面影响,以至使其完全瘫痪。随着各类事故造成的供应链中断的案例的不断发生,人们不得不重新审视之前所崇尚的供应链管理的理念。供应链上发生的各类突发事件促使人们警醒,并使得人们意识到片面的追求低成本、高效率是不可取的。伴随着现代供应链精益化和全球化的不断发展,人们必须对可能引起供应链中断的各类事故高度重视起来。
但是,目前从供应链管理的角度对突发事件进行的研究还是处于一个刚起步、甚至在很多方面还没有起步的阶段。学术理论界对供应链突发事件研究的滞后以及实业界面临的供应链突发事件越来越严重的挑战无疑构成了一对矛盾。这就彰显了从供应链管理的角度研究突发事件的理论意义和现实意义。
基于供应链管理的角度,本文从突发事件的机理以及供应突发事件应对策略两个主要方面论述了供应链突发事件的理论,采用了定量和定性相结合、侧重定量的研究方法。本文大致可以分为4个部分,主要的研究内容简要说明如下:第一部分包括第一章绪论和第二章文献综述。
在绪论中,首先说明了本文研究的背景;其次说明了本文的研究意义,分别从理论意义和实际价值两个层次说明了研究意义;再次介绍了全文的研究思路和框架;最后总结说明了全文研究的创新点。在文献综述部分对目前有关供应链突发事件的各类文献进行了回顾和总结,主要从三个方面对已有的相关文献进行回顾:供应链风险管理、突发事件和应急管理、供应链契约。研究发现,目前这三个方面的研究虽然都有不少相关的研究文献,但是从供应链突发事件的角度进行论述的文章却是少之又少。本文的立足点在于供应链上的突发事件的机理和应对策略研究,希望通过研究,可以在一定程度上弥补目前的供应链突发事件研究理论的薄弱环节或者研究空白。
第二部分是突发事件的机理分析部分,包括第三章供应链突发事件机理分析。
在对供应链突发事件机理的研究过程中,首先对本文研究的突发事件的范围和相关概念进行了界定,说明了本文研究的突发事件的立足点是基于供应链管理的角度。接着将供应链上发生的突发事件按照实物流、信息流、资金流将供应链突发事件划分为三个大类。本文采用了概念模型和数学模型相结合的方法来对供应链突发事件的扩散机理进行了研究。论文分别讨论了在链状供应链和网状供应链的情况下,突发事件在供应链上的扩散规律。另外,在假设供应链起始端上存在价格持续大幅上涨的情况下,本文研究了该价格上涨随着其在供应链中进行传播时发生的变化。在对供应链突发事件的恢复机理进行研究中,论文分别考虑直接受到突发事件影响的企业采用恢复措施时的供应链恢复过程以及间接受到影响的企业采用恢复措施时的供应链恢复过程。另外,本章最后还研究了供应链上存在的企业联盟对供应链恢复过程的影响。
第三部分是供应突发事件应对策略部分,包括第四～七章,分别考虑了供应链事前、事中、事后的应对措施。
在对事前预防措施的研究过程中,本文主要研究的突发事件包括两类,分别是:企业的采购价格持续大幅上涨,以及供应链上企业的供应中断。对于采购价格持续大幅上涨这类突发事件,本文提出了带期权机制的远期合同的应对措施,给出了带期权机制的远期合同主要参数的确定方法,文章证明了通过这种机制,分销商能够在规避批发市场价格的大幅波动的同时,该机制还能够使得供应链整体达到整体效益提升的目的。在对事前预防供应中断这类突发事件的预防措施的研究中,根据不同类型的供应链结构,本文提出了可以使用可中断合同、提前采购等机制来应对,并给出了相应的采购策略,在研究中本文还考虑了采购成本可能存在信息不对称的情况。
在对事中应对策略的研究中,本文主要是对启动预警方案等级的决策和何时启动应急预案进行了讨论。首先考虑了安全库存的已消耗量、供应下降的幅度以及供应下降的已持续时间对企业发出的预警等级的影响,给出了启动预警方案等级的决策模型。然后讨论了何时启动应急预案的问题,分别研究了供应链上的企业完全没有和拥有一定的突发事件持续时间信息的两种情况。对于供应链企业拥有一定的突发事件持续时间信息的这种情况,论文分别考虑了供应链上的不同企业具有相同的风险规避系数和具有不同的风险规避系数这两种情况;对于企业完全没有和拥有一定的突发事件持续时间信息的不同情况,都给出了可以协调启动应急预案时间的供应链协调措施。
在对事后供应链恢复过程的协调措施的研究中,本文在不同的供应链结构的背景下,分别研究当供应商发生突发事件导致无法为下游的分销商提供商品时,分销商和供应商之间通过援助和罚金的协调措施以达到供应链事后恢复过程协调的目的,研究中考虑了突发事件对分销商产生的影响存在信息不对称的情况。论文还研究了供应链上的战略联盟的存在对供应链事后恢复过程的影响,从而论述了供应链上的战略联盟对应对突发事件具有一定的积极意义。
本文还对供应突发事件全过程的应对策略进行了研究,考虑供应商发生突发事件导致无法为下游的分销商提供商品时的协调策略。给出了基于自组织临界特性和极值理论的由自然灾害导致的供应链突发事件发生概率的确定方法,论文分析了不同供应链结构下的事前预防措施和事后恢复过程的协调问题,提出的协调机制包括援助和罚金的形式。在研究中,还考虑了可能发生突发事件的供应商是风险中性和风险规避的两种情况。
第四部分是全文总结部分,包括第八章。该部分对全文的主要研究结论进行了总结,并对将来的研究方向做出了说明。
本文的创新点主要体现在以下方面:
1.按照供应链突发事件演化过程,分别对突发事件的发生机理、扩散机理以及恢复机理进行了研究。
在对供应链突发事件和应急管理的研究中,研究突发事件的机理应该是基础性的一步。目前从供应链管理的角度对突发事件机理进行研究比较少,本文分别从供应链突发事件的发生机理、扩散机理以及恢复机理的角度对供应链上突发事件的机理进行了分析。
2.在对供应链突发事件的应对策略的研究中,考虑了比较复杂的供应链结构。
本文研究了一个供应商和多个分销商、多个供应商和一个分销商的供应链结构,并在部分章节中考虑了多个供应商、一个分销商、多个顾客的供应链结构,从而使得研究具有更普遍的现实意义。
3.在对供应链突发事件的应对措施的研究中,考虑了事后恢复时间和恢复成本两个维度,并在一个模型中综合统筹考虑突发事件发生之前的预防策略和突发事件发生之后的恢复措施。
对于供应链来说,突发事件对供应链造成影响的一个重要因素是突发事件使供应链中断的时间。为分析恢复时间在供应链恢复过程的作用,本文基于事后恢复时间和恢复成本两个维度对突发事件发生之后的恢复过程进行研究。另外,目前的研究中,往往是单独考虑事前的预防策略以及事后恢复过程,而本文将突发事件发生之前的预防策略和事后的恢复措施统筹考虑,给出统一优化的研究思路和方法。
4.将期权机制、不对称信息和风险规避因素引入到供应链突发事件事前预防以及事后应对过程的研究。
本文引入期权机制的目的是为了避免企业在采购时面临采购价格持续严重上涨导致的供应突发事件,从而一定程度上解决突发事件可能导致的企业面临的严重亏损的危机。另外,在研究中考虑了企业存在不对称信息时对供应链的事后恢复过程和恢复成本造成的影响,以及企业风险规避的特性会对供应链企业事前采取的预防措施和事后的恢复过程造成的影响。在之前的研究中,尚未发现有将本文提及的期权机制、不对称信息和风险规避因素引入供应链突发事件研究中的文献。
5.将极值理论和自组织临界特性引入供应链突发事件的研究,从而在一定程度上解决了突发事件发生概率这一关键问题。
本文通过引入极值理论和自组织临界特性,从而部分的解决了突发事件发生概率的问题,可以确定在以后一段时间内由于自然灾害等原因导致的供应链突发事件的概率。
The two major trends of the development of the supply chain throughout the world are lean production and globalization. Indeed, the two trends have brought tremendous benefits to the companies and supply chains which advocate the ideas of lean production and globalization. As the ideas of lean production and globalization grow in popularity in the world, the supply chains become more and more complicated and efficient. However, it is discovered that this supply chain tends to be very fragile. If there are some disruptions happening in the supply chains, the supply chains which are well-designed and well-functioning before are often subject to tremendous negative impact, and even paralyzed. With the continual occurrence of the supply chain interruptions caused by disruptions, people have to reassess the idea of supply chain management advocated before. The disruptions happening in the supply chains make people awaken. People gradually realize that extreme pursuit of low-cost and high efficiency is undesirable. With continuous development of globalization and lean production, it is the time for people to think over the interruptions caused by different types of disruptions.
However, the research on the disruptions from the perspective of supply chain management is just started, and even the research on many areas is still not started. Because the academic research on the disruption in the supply chain is delayed comparing to the urgent need by the companies which have to face up to the challenges brought by the disruption in the supply chain, it is undoubted that there exits the contradictions. Consequently, it is meaningful both theoretically and practically for us to do the academic research on the disruption from the angel of supply chain management.
Based on supply chain management, in the paper, we mainly research the disruption mechanism and the countermeasures against the supply crisis in the supply chain. In the research, we use both quantitative and qualitative methods to do the research. To compensate the weakness of the current research method, we relatively focus on the quantitative research methods. This paper can be roughly divided into four parts. The main outlines of the research are as follows:
The first part includes the first chapter and the second chapter. The first chapter is the introduction of the whole paper, and the second chapter is the literature review. In the chapter one, firstly, we introduce the background of the study. Secondly, we demonstrate the significance of this study both theoretically and practically. Thirdly, we introduce the frameworks of the study. In the end of chapter one, we demonstrate the innovations of the study.
In the chapter two, we review the present literatures related to the different types of the disruption in the supply chain. We do the literature review work from three angels, namely, the risk management of the supply chain, disruptions and emergency management, and contracts of the supply chain. It is found that although there are many relevant research literatures in the three aspects, the literature of the disruption from the angel of supply chain management is extremely rare. The standpoint of the paper is the research on the mechanism and countermeasures based on the supply chain management. What we want to do is to compensate the current weakness of the research on the disruption about supply chain to some extent.
The second part is about the mechanism of disruptions in the supply chain and mainly includes chapter three.
In the research process of the mechanism of disruptions in the supply chain, firstly, we give the demonstration and definition of the relevant concepts and researching scope. We demonstrate that the research work is based on the supply chain management. Secondly, we divide the disruptions into three main categories, namely, the disruptions related to the logistics, information flow and capital flow respectively. In the paper, we use both the conceptual model and mathematical model to research the diffusion mechanism of disruption in the supply chain. We discuss the diffusion laws of the disruptions in the supply chain with the shape of chain and mesh. In addition, with the assumption of the fluctuations in the price at the starting point of the supply chain, we research the change of the price fluctuation spread through the supply chain. In the researching process of the recovery mechanism, we consider the recovery process when the recovery measures are taken by the companies directly or indirectly affected. Additionally, in the end of chapter three, we also research the influence of the company union on the recovery process of the supply chain.
The third part is about the countermeasures against the supply crisis in the supply chain, and includes chapter 4~chapter 7. In this part, we mainly research the countermeasures before, during and after the disruption happening in the supply chain.
In the research process of the preventive measures before the happening of the disruptions, we mainly consider two kinds of the disruptions, namely, the very high purchasing price lasting a long period of time and the interruption of the supply in the supply chain. For the disruption of high purchasing price, we present the optional forwards to deal with this kind of disruptions. The ways to identify the key parameters of the optional forwards are given. It is proven that by this kind of methods, the distributors can avoid the negative influence of large fluctuations in the wholesale price, and at the same time, this method can also make the whole supply chain achieve the purpose of enhancing overall efficiency and profit. To avoid the negative influence of the disruptions of supply interruptions, we bring forward the preventive measures of interruptible contracts and procurement in advance according to different types of supply chain structures. In addition, we also consider the situation of information asymmetry about the procurement costs in the research.
In the research on countermeasures during disruptions, we mainly research the strategies of selecting warning levels of the contingency plans and when to activate the contingency plans. First of all, we consider the influence of safety inventory which has been consumed, the decrease in the supply and duration of the decrease in supply and give the way to select the warning level of the contingency plans. Then we research the strategy of when to activate the contingency plans. The company both completely without and with some information about the duration time of the disruptions are considered. As for the situation of the company with some information, we consider the companies in the supply chain have and have not the same risk aversion factor respectively. In each situation, we give the coordinating measures to coordinate the activating time of the contingency plans in the supply chain.
In the research on countermeasures after disruptions, when the supplier can not provide the commodities to the distributor in the downstream of the supply chain because of the disruptions, we research the way to coordinate the recovery process of the disrupted supply chain after disruptions by the measures of assistances or fines. In the research, we consider the situation where there exits information asymmetry about the influence caused by the disruptions on the distributors. The paper also considers the influence of the company union on the recovery process of the supply chain. It is proven that the there are some advantages for the supply chain to deal with the disruption with the existence of the union.
In this paper, we also research the counntermeasures of entire process. We research the coordinating measures to coordinate the preventive measures and the recovery process when the supplier can not provide the commodities to the distributor because of the disruptions. We give the way to identify the occurrence probability of the disruptions caused by the natural disasters happening in the supply chain based on self-organized criticality and extreme value theory. We research the coordinating problems about the preventive measures and the recovery process of different types of supply chain structures. The coordinating measures include assistances and fines. In the research, we also respectively consider the supplier subject to the disruptions is risk neutral and risk averse.
The fourth part is the summary of the whole paper, and includes the chapter 8. In this paper, we summarize the main research conclusions, and demonstrate the future research directions.
The innovations in the paper are as follows:
1. In accordance with the evolution process of the disruption in supply chains, the mechanisms of occurrence, proliferation and resumption have been researched.
In the study of disruptions and countermeasures in supply chains, it is basic to research the mechanism of the disruption. However, the research about mechanisms is very rare at present. In this paper, the disruption mechanisms about occurrence, proliferation and resumption have been researched respectively.
2. In the research on countermeasures of disruption, complex structure of the supply chains have been taken into account.
In this paper, to make the research more realitic, a number of structures of the supply chains have been researched, such as mutiple distributors with one supplier, one distributor with multiple suppliers and multiple coustomers, one distributor with multiple suppliers. At present, however, most of the research is focused on the structure of one supplier with one distributor.
3. In the research on countermeasures of disruptions, the recovery cost and time have been considered, and in the same model, the prevention measure and restoration measure have been researched and optimized simultaneously
As for the supply chains, one of the important factors related to the influence brought by the disruptions is recovery time. To analyze the effect of the recovery time on the recovery process, the study of recovery cost and time has been done. In addition, at present, the prevention measures and resumption prcess are often studied separately. In this paper, we integrate the prevention measures and recovery measures in one model, and give the unified optimization method.
4. Option, asymmetric information and risk aversion factor have been brought into the research on prevention measures and recovery process in supply chians.
In this paper, the objective of option is to make the company avoid the procurement crisis led by the serious price rise which lasts for a long time, and resolve the crisis of seriously financial loss which the company may face. In addition, asymmetric information has been taken into account in the research on recovery process and cost. We also research the effect of risk aversion factor on prevention measures and recovery process. In the past research, however, there are rare literatures to bring option, asymmetric information and risk aversion factor into the disruption management in supply chain.
5. Extreme Value Theory and the self-organized criticality characteristics have been brought into the research on disruption management in supply chains, which resolves the key problem of the probability of disruption occurrence in supply chain partially.
By introduction of Extreme Value Theory and the characteristics of self-organized criticality, the key problem of the probability of disruption in supply chains led by natural disaster has been resolve to some extent.
但是,目前从供应链管理的角度对突发事件进行的研究还是处于一个刚起步、甚至在很多方面还没有起步的阶段。学术理论界对供应链突发事件研究的滞后以及实业界面临的供应链突发事件越来越严重的挑战无疑构成了一对矛盾。这就彰显了从供应链管理的角度研究突发事件的理论意义和现实意义。
基于供应链管理的角度,本文从突发事件的机理以及供应突发事件应对策略两个主要方面论述了供应链突发事件的理论,采用了定量和定性相结合、侧重定量的研究方法。本文大致可以分为4个部分,主要的研究内容简要说明如下:第一部分包括第一章绪论和第二章文献综述。
在绪论中,首先说明了本文研究的背景;其次说明了本文的研究意义,分别从理论意义和实际价值两个层次说明了研究意义;再次介绍了全文的研究思路和框架;最后总结说明了全文研究的创新点。在文献综述部分对目前有关供应链突发事件的各类文献进行了回顾和总结,主要从三个方面对已有的相关文献进行回顾:供应链风险管理、突发事件和应急管理、供应链契约。研究发现,目前这三个方面的研究虽然都有不少相关的研究文献,但是从供应链突发事件的角度进行论述的文章却是少之又少。本文的立足点在于供应链上的突发事件的机理和应对策略研究,希望通过研究,可以在一定程度上弥补目前的供应链突发事件研究理论的薄弱环节或者研究空白。
第二部分是突发事件的机理分析部分,包括第三章供应链突发事件机理分析。
在对供应链突发事件机理的研究过程中,首先对本文研究的突发事件的范围和相关概念进行了界定,说明了本文研究的突发事件的立足点是基于供应链管理的角度。接着将供应链上发生的突发事件按照实物流、信息流、资金流将供应链突发事件划分为三个大类。本文采用了概念模型和数学模型相结合的方法来对供应链突发事件的扩散机理进行了研究。论文分别讨论了在链状供应链和网状供应链的情况下,突发事件在供应链上的扩散规律。另外,在假设供应链起始端上存在价格持续大幅上涨的情况下,本文研究了该价格上涨随着其在供应链中进行传播时发生的变化。在对供应链突发事件的恢复机理进行研究中,论文分别考虑直接受到突发事件影响的企业采用恢复措施时的供应链恢复过程以及间接受到影响的企业采用恢复措施时的供应链恢复过程。另外,本章最后还研究了供应链上存在的企业联盟对供应链恢复过程的影响。
第三部分是供应突发事件应对策略部分,包括第四～七章,分别考虑了供应链事前、事中、事后的应对措施。
在对事前预防措施的研究过程中,本文主要研究的突发事件包括两类,分别是:企业的采购价格持续大幅上涨,以及供应链上企业的供应中断。对于采购价格持续大幅上涨这类突发事件,本文提出了带期权机制的远期合同的应对措施,给出了带期权机制的远期合同主要参数的确定方法,文章证明了通过这种机制,分销商能够在规避批发市场价格的大幅波动的同时,该机制还能够使得供应链整体达到整体效益提升的目的。在对事前预防供应中断这类突发事件的预防措施的研究中,根据不同类型的供应链结构,本文提出了可以使用可中断合同、提前采购等机制来应对,并给出了相应的采购策略,在研究中本文还考虑了采购成本可能存在信息不对称的情况。
在对事中应对策略的研究中,本文主要是对启动预警方案等级的决策和何时启动应急预案进行了讨论。首先考虑了安全库存的已消耗量、供应下降的幅度以及供应下降的已持续时间对企业发出的预警等级的影响,给出了启动预警方案等级的决策模型。然后讨论了何时启动应急预案的问题,分别研究了供应链上的企业完全没有和拥有一定的突发事件持续时间信息的两种情况。对于供应链企业拥有一定的突发事件持续时间信息的这种情况,论文分别考虑了供应链上的不同企业具有相同的风险规避系数和具有不同的风险规避系数这两种情况;对于企业完全没有和拥有一定的突发事件持续时间信息的不同情况,都给出了可以协调启动应急预案时间的供应链协调措施。
在对事后供应链恢复过程的协调措施的研究中,本文在不同的供应链结构的背景下,分别研究当供应商发生突发事件导致无法为下游的分销商提供商品时,分销商和供应商之间通过援助和罚金的协调措施以达到供应链事后恢复过程协调的目的,研究中考虑了突发事件对分销商产生的影响存在信息不对称的情况。论文还研究了供应链上的战略联盟的存在对供应链事后恢复过程的影响,从而论述了供应链上的战略联盟对应对突发事件具有一定的积极意义。
本文还对供应突发事件全过程的应对策略进行了研究,考虑供应商发生突发事件导致无法为下游的分销商提供商品时的协调策略。给出了基于自组织临界特性和极值理论的由自然灾害导致的供应链突发事件发生概率的确定方法,论文分析了不同供应链结构下的事前预防措施和事后恢复过程的协调问题,提出的协调机制包括援助和罚金的形式。在研究中,还考虑了可能发生突发事件的供应商是风险中性和风险规避的两种情况。
第四部分是全文总结部分,包括第八章。该部分对全文的主要研究结论进行了总结,并对将来的研究方向做出了说明。
本文的创新点主要体现在以下方面:
1.按照供应链突发事件演化过程,分别对突发事件的发生机理、扩散机理以及恢复机理进行了研究。
在对供应链突发事件和应急管理的研究中,研究突发事件的机理应该是基础性的一步。目前从供应链管理的角度对突发事件机理进行研究比较少,本文分别从供应链突发事件的发生机理、扩散机理以及恢复机理的角度对供应链上突发事件的机理进行了分析。
2.在对供应链突发事件的应对策略的研究中,考虑了比较复杂的供应链结构。
本文研究了一个供应商和多个分销商、多个供应商和一个分销商的供应链结构,并在部分章节中考虑了多个供应商、一个分销商、多个顾客的供应链结构,从而使得研究具有更普遍的现实意义。
3.在对供应链突发事件的应对措施的研究中,考虑了事后恢复时间和恢复成本两个维度,并在一个模型中综合统筹考虑突发事件发生之前的预防策略和突发事件发生之后的恢复措施。
对于供应链来说,突发事件对供应链造成影响的一个重要因素是突发事件使供应链中断的时间。为分析恢复时间在供应链恢复过程的作用,本文基于事后恢复时间和恢复成本两个维度对突发事件发生之后的恢复过程进行研究。另外,目前的研究中,往往是单独考虑事前的预防策略以及事后恢复过程,而本文将突发事件发生之前的预防策略和事后的恢复措施统筹考虑,给出统一优化的研究思路和方法。
4.将期权机制、不对称信息和风险规避因素引入到供应链突发事件事前预防以及事后应对过程的研究。
本文引入期权机制的目的是为了避免企业在采购时面临采购价格持续严重上涨导致的供应突发事件,从而一定程度上解决突发事件可能导致的企业面临的严重亏损的危机。另外,在研究中考虑了企业存在不对称信息时对供应链的事后恢复过程和恢复成本造成的影响,以及企业风险规避的特性会对供应链企业事前采取的预防措施和事后的恢复过程造成的影响。在之前的研究中,尚未发现有将本文提及的期权机制、不对称信息和风险规避因素引入供应链突发事件研究中的文献。
5.将极值理论和自组织临界特性引入供应链突发事件的研究,从而在一定程度上解决了突发事件发生概率这一关键问题。
本文通过引入极值理论和自组织临界特性,从而部分的解决了突发事件发生概率的问题,可以确定在以后一段时间内由于自然灾害等原因导致的供应链突发事件的概率。
The two major trends of the development of the supply chain throughout the world are lean production and globalization. Indeed, the two trends have brought tremendous benefits to the companies and supply chains which advocate the ideas of lean production and globalization. As the ideas of lean production and globalization grow in popularity in the world, the supply chains become more and more complicated and efficient. However, it is discovered that this supply chain tends to be very fragile. If there are some disruptions happening in the supply chains, the supply chains which are well-designed and well-functioning before are often subject to tremendous negative impact, and even paralyzed. With the continual occurrence of the supply chain interruptions caused by disruptions, people have to reassess the idea of supply chain management advocated before. The disruptions happening in the supply chains make people awaken. People gradually realize that extreme pursuit of low-cost and high efficiency is undesirable. With continuous development of globalization and lean production, it is the time for people to think over the interruptions caused by different types of disruptions.
However, the research on the disruptions from the perspective of supply chain management is just started, and even the research on many areas is still not started. Because the academic research on the disruption in the supply chain is delayed comparing to the urgent need by the companies which have to face up to the challenges brought by the disruption in the supply chain, it is undoubted that there exits the contradictions. Consequently, it is meaningful both theoretically and practically for us to do the academic research on the disruption from the angel of supply chain management.
Based on supply chain management, in the paper, we mainly research the disruption mechanism and the countermeasures against the supply crisis in the supply chain. In the research, we use both quantitative and qualitative methods to do the research. To compensate the weakness of the current research method, we relatively focus on the quantitative research methods. This paper can be roughly divided into four parts. The main outlines of the research are as follows:
The first part includes the first chapter and the second chapter. The first chapter is the introduction of the whole paper, and the second chapter is the literature review. In the chapter one, firstly, we introduce the background of the study. Secondly, we demonstrate the significance of this study both theoretically and practically. Thirdly, we introduce the frameworks of the study. In the end of chapter one, we demonstrate the innovations of the study.
In the chapter two, we review the present literatures related to the different types of the disruption in the supply chain. We do the literature review work from three angels, namely, the risk management of the supply chain, disruptions and emergency management, and contracts of the supply chain. It is found that although there are many relevant research literatures in the three aspects, the literature of the disruption from the angel of supply chain management is extremely rare. The standpoint of the paper is the research on the mechanism and countermeasures based on the supply chain management. What we want to do is to compensate the current weakness of the research on the disruption about supply chain to some extent.
The second part is about the mechanism of disruptions in the supply chain and mainly includes chapter three.
In the research process of the mechanism of disruptions in the supply chain, firstly, we give the demonstration and definition of the relevant concepts and researching scope. We demonstrate that the research work is based on the supply chain management. Secondly, we divide the disruptions into three main categories, namely, the disruptions related to the logistics, information flow and capital flow respectively. In the paper, we use both the conceptual model and mathematical model to research the diffusion mechanism of disruption in the supply chain. We discuss the diffusion laws of the disruptions in the supply chain with the shape of chain and mesh. In addition, with the assumption of the fluctuations in the price at the starting point of the supply chain, we research the change of the price fluctuation spread through the supply chain. In the researching process of the recovery mechanism, we consider the recovery process when the recovery measures are taken by the companies directly or indirectly affected. Additionally, in the end of chapter three, we also research the influence of the company union on the recovery process of the supply chain.
The third part is about the countermeasures against the supply crisis in the supply chain, and includes chapter 4~chapter 7. In this part, we mainly research the countermeasures before, during and after the disruption happening in the supply chain.
In the research process of the preventive measures before the happening of the disruptions, we mainly consider two kinds of the disruptions, namely, the very high purchasing price lasting a long period of time and the interruption of the supply in the supply chain. For the disruption of high purchasing price, we present the optional forwards to deal with this kind of disruptions. The ways to identify the key parameters of the optional forwards are given. It is proven that by this kind of methods, the distributors can avoid the negative influence of large fluctuations in the wholesale price, and at the same time, this method can also make the whole supply chain achieve the purpose of enhancing overall efficiency and profit. To avoid the negative influence of the disruptions of supply interruptions, we bring forward the preventive measures of interruptible contracts and procurement in advance according to different types of supply chain structures. In addition, we also consider the situation of information asymmetry about the procurement costs in the research.
In the research on countermeasures during disruptions, we mainly research the strategies of selecting warning levels of the contingency plans and when to activate the contingency plans. First of all, we consider the influence of safety inventory which has been consumed, the decrease in the supply and duration of the decrease in supply and give the way to select the warning level of the contingency plans. Then we research the strategy of when to activate the contingency plans. The company both completely without and with some information about the duration time of the disruptions are considered. As for the situation of the company with some information, we consider the companies in the supply chain have and have not the same risk aversion factor respectively. In each situation, we give the coordinating measures to coordinate the activating time of the contingency plans in the supply chain.
In the research on countermeasures after disruptions, when the supplier can not provide the commodities to the distributor in the downstream of the supply chain because of the disruptions, we research the way to coordinate the recovery process of the disrupted supply chain after disruptions by the measures of assistances or fines. In the research, we consider the situation where there exits information asymmetry about the influence caused by the disruptions on the distributors. The paper also considers the influence of the company union on the recovery process of the supply chain. It is proven that the there are some advantages for the supply chain to deal with the disruption with the existence of the union.
In this paper, we also research the counntermeasures of entire process. We research the coordinating measures to coordinate the preventive measures and the recovery process when the supplier can not provide the commodities to the distributor because of the disruptions. We give the way to identify the occurrence probability of the disruptions caused by the natural disasters happening in the supply chain based on self-organized criticality and extreme value theory. We research the coordinating problems about the preventive measures and the recovery process of different types of supply chain structures. The coordinating measures include assistances and fines. In the research, we also respectively consider the supplier subject to the disruptions is risk neutral and risk averse.
The fourth part is the summary of the whole paper, and includes the chapter 8. In this paper, we summarize the main research conclusions, and demonstrate the future research directions.
The innovations in the paper are as follows:
1. In accordance with the evolution process of the disruption in supply chains, the mechanisms of occurrence, proliferation and resumption have been researched.
In the study of disruptions and countermeasures in supply chains, it is basic to research the mechanism of the disruption. However, the research about mechanisms is very rare at present. In this paper, the disruption mechanisms about occurrence, proliferation and resumption have been researched respectively.
2. In the research on countermeasures of disruption, complex structure of the supply chains have been taken into account.
In this paper, to make the research more realitic, a number of structures of the supply chains have been researched, such as mutiple distributors with one supplier, one distributor with multiple suppliers and multiple coustomers, one distributor with multiple suppliers. At present, however, most of the research is focused on the structure of one supplier with one distributor.
3. In the research on countermeasures of disruptions, the recovery cost and time have been considered, and in the same model, the prevention measure and restoration measure have been researched and optimized simultaneously
As for the supply chains, one of the important factors related to the influence brought by the disruptions is recovery time. To analyze the effect of the recovery time on the recovery process, the study of recovery cost and time has been done. In addition, at present, the prevention measures and resumption prcess are often studied separately. In this paper, we integrate the prevention measures and recovery measures in one model, and give the unified optimization method.
4. Option, asymmetric information and risk aversion factor have been brought into the research on prevention measures and recovery process in supply chians.
In this paper, the objective of option is to make the company avoid the procurement crisis led by the serious price rise which lasts for a long time, and resolve the crisis of seriously financial loss which the company may face. In addition, asymmetric information has been taken into account in the research on recovery process and cost. We also research the effect of risk aversion factor on prevention measures and recovery process. In the past research, however, there are rare literatures to bring option, asymmetric information and risk aversion factor into the disruption management in supply chain.
5. Extreme Value Theory and the self-organized criticality characteristics have been brought into the research on disruption management in supply chains, which resolves the key problem of the probability of disruption occurrence in supply chain partially.
By introduction of Extreme Value Theory and the characteristics of self-organized criticality, the key problem of the probability of disruption in supply chains led by natural disaster has been resolve to some extent.
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