虚拟经济对实体经济影响及与实体经济协调发展研究
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摘要
正确处理虚拟经济与实体经济的关系,促进虚拟经济与实体经济的协调发展,有效发挥虚拟经济健康发展促进实体经济增长的作用,对维持国民经济的稳定持续快速发展具有重要意义。基于这一思想,本文展开了对促进我国虚拟经济与实体经济协调发展的相关研究。在界定狭义虚拟经济研究范畴的基础上,主要分析了金融市场发展及房地产市场的虚拟部分与实体经济间的关系。
实体经济是虚拟经济产生与发展的基础,虚拟经济对实体经济具有反作用。通过虚拟经济对实体经济的传导机理及其与实体经济协调发展机理的理论分析,认为:虚拟经济与实体经济的协调发展,利于发挥虚拟经济对实体经济发展“助推器”的作用;虚拟经济的过度膨胀,出现与实体经济的过度背离时,易导致经济泡沫的累积,并有可能诱发泡沫经济,而泡沫的破裂即可导致金融危机、经济危机的发生;同时认为,虚拟经济与实体经济发展间具有内在协调机制及偏离协调状态的恢复机制。
对虚拟经济作用机理及虚拟经济与实体经济协调发展机制理论分析基础上,进一步对我国虚拟经济与实体经济的协调状况进行了实证分析。通过分析我国虚拟经济发展对实体经济的影响,得出结论:以股票市场、债券市场、基金市场组成的资本市场及金融衍生品市场的发展变动对实体经济整体发展的长期作用程度相对较强,虚拟经济系统中股市的发展对社会财富效应的影响逐步增大,贷款规模及股市规模的扩张在短期和长期内对实体经济投资扩张效应的影响显著。
借助综合变化协调度方法及耦合协调度模型,测算了我国虚拟经济与实体经济系统间的静态协调度及动态协调度,得出结论:近年来,尤其2007年开始虚拟经济与实体经济间呈现弱度失调状态,2008年弱度失调相对较明显,2009年失调状态减弱,并且整体系统协调发展的动态趋势呈现进一步向协调状态迈进。2007年以来虚拟经济与实体经济系统间出现的弱度失调状况,可能的原因为这一时期我国虚拟经济整体规模迅速膨胀,导致虚拟经济发展的规模及速度与实体经济发展的规模及速度出现不匹配状况。在此基础上,基于耦合关联预测模型预测了2010-2014年我国虚拟经济与实体经济系统间的整体协调状态,认为未来两系统间协调发展趋势向好。
在阐释虚拟经济膨胀导致泡沫经济机理的前提下,借助动态戈登模型分析了我国股票市场的绝对泡沫度及相对泡沫度情况,以及基于房价——收入比、房价——租赁价格比及房屋空置率判断方法,分析了我国房地产市场的泡沫风险状况,得出结论:近年来,2007年伴随股市规模的扩张,股市泡沫膨胀迅速,尤其2007年下半年全球金融危机爆发前的泡沫程度最为严重,不利于虚拟经济与实体经济的协调发展;2008年股市泡沫逐渐呈现破裂状态,股市陷入低迷;2009年随着整体经济的逐渐复苏,股市发展出现一定程度的反弹,2009年至2010年上半年股市相对泡沫度及绝对泡沫度均在良性负泡沫或良性正泡沫范围内,股市泡沫风险较弱。对我国股市泡沫情况的分析,亦验证了对2007年以来我国虚拟经济与实体经济出现弱度失调状况,2009年开始逐渐呈现向新一轮弱度协调状态迈进趋势的判断的相对准确性。2009年下半年以来我国房地产市场泡沫程度较高,实体经济发展与房地产市场发展间呈现非协调趋势。在此基础上,为防范我国虚拟经济与实体经济的过度背离、股市泡沫和房地产市场泡沫的急剧膨胀,提出了虚拟经济过度背离实体经济的风险预警构架。
依据我国发展实际及实证分析结论,提出推动虚拟经济“适度”、“高效”发展,加强我国金融市场监管及房地产市场的风险防范,加强虚拟经济系统与实体经济系统整体发展间的协调监管,并积极构建与实施虚拟经济过度背离实体经济风险预警系统的相应的对策建议。
该论文有图77幅,表72个,参考文献140篇。
In the new situation of international economic development, there is great significance for maintaining sustained and rapid development of the national economy based on promoting the coordinated development of the fictitious economy and real economy, and the real economy grow with the healthy development of fictitious economy. Study on promoting coordinated development of China’s fictitious economy and real economy has been done in the dissertation based on this idea. Therefore, the relationship between the development of China’s financial market, the fictitious part of the real estate market and the real economy has been analyzed based on defining the category of fictitious economy.
Real economy is the basis of fictitious economy development, and there are counterproductive influences of fictitious economy to real economy. Theoretical analysis of the coordinated development mechanism of fictitious economy and real economy has shown that fictitious economy can be a‘booster’for real economy’s development based on the coordinated development of fictitious economy and real economy; fictitious economy excessive departure from real economy can lead to the accumulation of economic bubble and may induce bubble economy, the bursting of the bubble can lead to financial crisis or economic crisis; and there is the coordination and its recovery mechanism between fictitious economy and real economy.
Empirical analysis of the coordination state of China’s fictitious economy and real economy has been done based on the theoretical analysis of the mechanism of fictitious economy and real economy. Research of the influences of China’s fictitious economy on real economy showed that there was stronger influence degree of the development of the stock market, bond market and fund market consisted to the capital market and the financial derivatives market on China’s real economy in the long term; the effects of the development of stock market to the social wealth increased gradually; there were significant influences of the scale expansion of stocks and loan to the investment expansion effect of real economy in the short and long term.
The static and dynamic coordination degree of China’s fictitious economy and real economy has been calculated based on the comprehensive-changes method and coordination degree model, and the conclusions were that there had been weak imbalance state of the fictitious economy and real economy in recent years particularly since 2007; the imbalance degree was bigger in 2008; and the maladjustment state became weaken in 2009 and the dynamic coordination development trend of the overall system began to move to the next coordination state. The possible reason for the weak imbalance state since 2007 was that the scale of China’s fictitious economy expanded rapidly and departed from the real economy. Then, the coordination state of China’s fictitious economy and real economy from 2010 to 2014 has been forecasted based on the association prediction model, and the results showed that there was coordination state between the two systems in the forecast period.
On the basis of analysis the mechanism of the excessive expansion of the fictitious lead to the bubble economy, the absolute and relative bubble degrees in China’s market have been calculated with the dynamic Gordon model, and analyzed the bubble risk situation of the real estate market based the ratio of real estate sales price to income and the ratio of China’s real estate sales-rental price index etc.. The results showed that China’s stock market was in downturn from 2008 influenced by the international financial crisis, the stock market was rebound gradually in 2009, and there was weak absolute and relative degree of stock bubble in the first half of 2010. There has been high bubble degree of China’s real estate market since the second half of 2009, and the development trend of China’s real economy and the real estate market was imbalance. Then, the framework of early warning of China’s factious economy excessive departure from the real economy was proposed.
Suggestions of promoting moderate and efficient growth of China’s fictitious economy; strengthening the supervision of the financial market, risk prevention of the real estate market, and the coordination supervision of the fictitious economy system and the real economy system; and constructing and implementing the risk warning system of the fictitious economy excessive departure from the real economy based on the actual development of Chinese economy and conclusions of the empirical analysis.
There are 77 figures, 72 tables and 140 references.
实体经济是虚拟经济产生与发展的基础,虚拟经济对实体经济具有反作用。通过虚拟经济对实体经济的传导机理及其与实体经济协调发展机理的理论分析,认为:虚拟经济与实体经济的协调发展,利于发挥虚拟经济对实体经济发展“助推器”的作用;虚拟经济的过度膨胀,出现与实体经济的过度背离时,易导致经济泡沫的累积,并有可能诱发泡沫经济,而泡沫的破裂即可导致金融危机、经济危机的发生;同时认为,虚拟经济与实体经济发展间具有内在协调机制及偏离协调状态的恢复机制。
对虚拟经济作用机理及虚拟经济与实体经济协调发展机制理论分析基础上,进一步对我国虚拟经济与实体经济的协调状况进行了实证分析。通过分析我国虚拟经济发展对实体经济的影响,得出结论:以股票市场、债券市场、基金市场组成的资本市场及金融衍生品市场的发展变动对实体经济整体发展的长期作用程度相对较强,虚拟经济系统中股市的发展对社会财富效应的影响逐步增大,贷款规模及股市规模的扩张在短期和长期内对实体经济投资扩张效应的影响显著。
借助综合变化协调度方法及耦合协调度模型,测算了我国虚拟经济与实体经济系统间的静态协调度及动态协调度,得出结论:近年来,尤其2007年开始虚拟经济与实体经济间呈现弱度失调状态,2008年弱度失调相对较明显,2009年失调状态减弱,并且整体系统协调发展的动态趋势呈现进一步向协调状态迈进。2007年以来虚拟经济与实体经济系统间出现的弱度失调状况,可能的原因为这一时期我国虚拟经济整体规模迅速膨胀,导致虚拟经济发展的规模及速度与实体经济发展的规模及速度出现不匹配状况。在此基础上,基于耦合关联预测模型预测了2010-2014年我国虚拟经济与实体经济系统间的整体协调状态,认为未来两系统间协调发展趋势向好。
在阐释虚拟经济膨胀导致泡沫经济机理的前提下,借助动态戈登模型分析了我国股票市场的绝对泡沫度及相对泡沫度情况,以及基于房价——收入比、房价——租赁价格比及房屋空置率判断方法,分析了我国房地产市场的泡沫风险状况,得出结论:近年来,2007年伴随股市规模的扩张,股市泡沫膨胀迅速,尤其2007年下半年全球金融危机爆发前的泡沫程度最为严重,不利于虚拟经济与实体经济的协调发展;2008年股市泡沫逐渐呈现破裂状态,股市陷入低迷;2009年随着整体经济的逐渐复苏,股市发展出现一定程度的反弹,2009年至2010年上半年股市相对泡沫度及绝对泡沫度均在良性负泡沫或良性正泡沫范围内,股市泡沫风险较弱。对我国股市泡沫情况的分析,亦验证了对2007年以来我国虚拟经济与实体经济出现弱度失调状况,2009年开始逐渐呈现向新一轮弱度协调状态迈进趋势的判断的相对准确性。2009年下半年以来我国房地产市场泡沫程度较高,实体经济发展与房地产市场发展间呈现非协调趋势。在此基础上,为防范我国虚拟经济与实体经济的过度背离、股市泡沫和房地产市场泡沫的急剧膨胀,提出了虚拟经济过度背离实体经济的风险预警构架。
依据我国发展实际及实证分析结论,提出推动虚拟经济“适度”、“高效”发展,加强我国金融市场监管及房地产市场的风险防范,加强虚拟经济系统与实体经济系统整体发展间的协调监管,并积极构建与实施虚拟经济过度背离实体经济风险预警系统的相应的对策建议。
该论文有图77幅,表72个,参考文献140篇。
In the new situation of international economic development, there is great significance for maintaining sustained and rapid development of the national economy based on promoting the coordinated development of the fictitious economy and real economy, and the real economy grow with the healthy development of fictitious economy. Study on promoting coordinated development of China’s fictitious economy and real economy has been done in the dissertation based on this idea. Therefore, the relationship between the development of China’s financial market, the fictitious part of the real estate market and the real economy has been analyzed based on defining the category of fictitious economy.
Real economy is the basis of fictitious economy development, and there are counterproductive influences of fictitious economy to real economy. Theoretical analysis of the coordinated development mechanism of fictitious economy and real economy has shown that fictitious economy can be a‘booster’for real economy’s development based on the coordinated development of fictitious economy and real economy; fictitious economy excessive departure from real economy can lead to the accumulation of economic bubble and may induce bubble economy, the bursting of the bubble can lead to financial crisis or economic crisis; and there is the coordination and its recovery mechanism between fictitious economy and real economy.
Empirical analysis of the coordination state of China’s fictitious economy and real economy has been done based on the theoretical analysis of the mechanism of fictitious economy and real economy. Research of the influences of China’s fictitious economy on real economy showed that there was stronger influence degree of the development of the stock market, bond market and fund market consisted to the capital market and the financial derivatives market on China’s real economy in the long term; the effects of the development of stock market to the social wealth increased gradually; there were significant influences of the scale expansion of stocks and loan to the investment expansion effect of real economy in the short and long term.
The static and dynamic coordination degree of China’s fictitious economy and real economy has been calculated based on the comprehensive-changes method and coordination degree model, and the conclusions were that there had been weak imbalance state of the fictitious economy and real economy in recent years particularly since 2007; the imbalance degree was bigger in 2008; and the maladjustment state became weaken in 2009 and the dynamic coordination development trend of the overall system began to move to the next coordination state. The possible reason for the weak imbalance state since 2007 was that the scale of China’s fictitious economy expanded rapidly and departed from the real economy. Then, the coordination state of China’s fictitious economy and real economy from 2010 to 2014 has been forecasted based on the association prediction model, and the results showed that there was coordination state between the two systems in the forecast period.
On the basis of analysis the mechanism of the excessive expansion of the fictitious lead to the bubble economy, the absolute and relative bubble degrees in China’s market have been calculated with the dynamic Gordon model, and analyzed the bubble risk situation of the real estate market based the ratio of real estate sales price to income and the ratio of China’s real estate sales-rental price index etc.. The results showed that China’s stock market was in downturn from 2008 influenced by the international financial crisis, the stock market was rebound gradually in 2009, and there was weak absolute and relative degree of stock bubble in the first half of 2010. There has been high bubble degree of China’s real estate market since the second half of 2009, and the development trend of China’s real economy and the real estate market was imbalance. Then, the framework of early warning of China’s factious economy excessive departure from the real economy was proposed.
Suggestions of promoting moderate and efficient growth of China’s fictitious economy; strengthening the supervision of the financial market, risk prevention of the real estate market, and the coordination supervision of the fictitious economy system and the real economy system; and constructing and implementing the risk warning system of the fictitious economy excessive departure from the real economy based on the actual development of Chinese economy and conclusions of the empirical analysis.
There are 77 figures, 72 tables and 140 references.
引文
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