基于演化博弈的闭环供应链协调问题研究
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摘要
随着人们环保意识的增强以及环保法规约束力度的加大,越来越多的企业开始进行产品的回收;同时随着自然资源的日益紧张,逆向物流的经济价值也逐步显现,对闭环供应链和逆向物流的有效管理,不仅可以促进生态环境优化,促进社会经济的可持续发展,同时也可以为企业带来明显的经济效益,强化企业的竞争优势。同传统的开环供应链相同,在闭环供应链中,每个成员企业都是独立的经济实体,从而有自己的战略目标,这个目标决定了企业如何利用资源、如何和外界环境协调,以及采取何种行动来达成这个目标。因此,本文试着从长期着眼,研究闭环供应链中节点企业对应不同参数组合采取的不同合作模式。给出了在闭环供应链参数满足不同的条件下,节点企业采取的不同模式,以及不同模式下节点企业在重要参数上的协调行为。
本文的主要研究工作及成果:
(1)在介绍了闭环供应链几种常见的回收模式的基础上,通过分析每种模式下不同的利润构成,构建了闭环供应链演化博弈模型的收益矩阵。并且将不同的合作策略对应于现实中的回收模式,从而为运用演化博弈理论解决闭环供应链成员间合作策略协调问题建立了基础。通过演化博弈理论复制动态方程的演算得到了博弈双方群体的演化稳定策略。并在此基础上,通过运用群体比例变化动态分析图讨论了不同情况下,制造商和销售商两群体比例的复制动态关系。将结果进行分类汇总后,总结得出了一些规律性的结论:①市场需求D(P)对演化稳定策略没有影响;②回收价格A对演化稳定策略影响巨大;③利润分配比例s与补贴价格B具有较强的相关性。从而为今后现实应用提供了可供参考的依据。
(2)在有第三方参与的情况下得到以下两个结论:①制造商选择合作所投入的成本C_M直接影响演化结果;②初始投入系数的差别对演化结果没有直接影响。并将两类模型进行对比分析得到结论有:①回收价格A与补贴价格B均会对模型产生重要影响;②有第三方参与时初始状态的敏感性体现的更为充分。
(3)选取极具代表性的轮胎业进行的实证分析,在相应调查的基础上,对模型的参数进行了合理的赋值,并按照构建的演化模型进行计算分析,最终得出两群体长期演化的稳定策略。
与已有的国内外相关研究相比,本文的创新之处体现在以下几点:
(1)本文采用现代经济学前沿理论-演化博弈理论作为基础工具建立模型对闭环供应链协调问题展开研究。此前文献主要是采用对函数进行极值分析的方法提出闭环供应链模式选择结论。而演化博弈理论这种被越来越多经济学家和社会学家应用于解释、预测参与人群体行为的经济学理论方法,可以有效弥补现有闭环供应链理论的不足,作为研究闭环供应链协调的新方法。
(2)在收益矩阵的构造中将博弈双方群体不同的合作策略的选择与现实中双方合作模式对应起来。以制造商和销售商博弈收益矩阵的构造为例,前者为制造商选择,后者为销售商选择。(合作,合作)策略对应中心协调模式;(合作,不合作)对应制造商负责回收模式;(不合作,合作)对应销售商负责回收模式;(不合作,不合作)对应不回收模式。这样的构建方式将闭环供应链中存在的三种不同模式紧密的联系在一起,从而为分析研究双方的协调模式提供了理论基础。
(3)讨论了不同参数条件下,闭环供应链模式的变化。为了使模型更具应用性,模型中没有对参数条件作过多的假设,而是对参数的不同取值可能进行了广泛的讨论。从这些不同情况中归纳出其规律性,并用管理学含义分析得出若干较直观结论。最后,为闭环供应链节点企业提供了如何运用这种规律的建议。
With the people's awareness of environmental protection strengthen and constraints of regulations and laws to environmental protection increasing,more and more enterprises began to recovery products;at the same time as the natural resources becoming tenser,the economic value of reverse logistics is also gradually obvious. The effective management of reverse logistics and the closed-loop supply chain can not only promote the optimization of the ecological environment and promoting socio-economic sustainable development,but also product obvious economic benefits for the enterprises and enhance their competitive edge.As same as the traditional open-loop supply chain,in the closed-loop supply chain,each member of the business are independent economic entities,which has its own strategic objective.With this objective,the enterprises make decision of how to use resources,and how to coordinate the external environment,as well as to take what action to achieve this objective.So,with the focus on long-term,this article tried to study closed-loop supply chain nodes in the corresponding business combination of different parameters to take different modes of cooperation.And got the conclusion that the different parameters of closed-loop supply chain decide the different model in which may have different coordinate act on key parameters.
Main research works and achievements of this dissertation:
(1) On the basis of introduction of some common mode of recovery in the closed-loop supply chain,this dissertation build the payoff matrix of the evolution game model through analyze profits of each different mode.Through connsponding the different strategies of cooperation to the reality of recovery mode,so as to make a foundation of the use of evolutionary game theory to solve the closed-loop supply chain strategy of cooperation among the members.Through the replicator dynamic equation calculus the evolution stable strategy of the two groups in the game.On this basis,analyze the different replicator dynamic of manufacters and retailers through the use of dynamics analysis of figure with percentage of population of these two groups.After results being classified summary,summing up some conclusions of law, make a foundation of the application in reality for futures.①Market demand has no effect on the evolution strategy;②recovery price has a huge impact on the evolution of the strategy;③distribution ratio of profits and subsidy price has high relevance with each other.
(2) There are two conclusions when a third-party takes part in:①the cost of manufacturers by choosing cooperation have a direct impact on the outcome of evolution;②initial invest factor do not directly affect the outcome of the evolution. The conclusion got by comparative analysis of two types of models is:①recovery price and subsidized price both have a major impact on the model;②when there is a third party involved in the initial state of the sensitivity reflected more fully.
(3) Select the most representative tire industry in the empirical analysis.On the basis of corresponding investigations,assign the parameters of the model reasonablly, and in accordance with the construction of the evolution of the model calculation and analysis in order to work out the evolution stable strategy of the two groups in a long run.
Compare with the relevant study,the main innovations of this dissertation:
(1) In this dissertation,the forefront of modern economic theory-evolutionary game theory was taken as a basis for modeling tools for the study on cooperation in closed-loop supply chain.Prior to this literature got the conclusion mainly through analysis the extreme values of the closed-loop supply chain models.The evolutionary game theory has been used by more and more economists and sociologists to explain and predict the behavior of groups of the participated people.So this method can effectively fill the existing closed-loop supply chain theory of the lack of research as a closed-loop supply chain,and as a new method of coordination.
(2) Corresponding the choice of cooperation strategy with the reality cooperation model in the payoff matrix structure of the game.Take the construct of payoff matrix between manufacturer and distributor as an example;the former is the choice of manufacturer while latter is retailer.(cooperation,cooperation) corresponds to center coordinate strategy model;(cooperation,non-cooperation) corresponds to the manufacturer responsible for the recovery model;(non-cooperation,cooperation) corresponds to the retailer responsible for the recovery model;(non-cooperative, non-cooperation) corresponds to non-recovery model.Such a way of building uses the link between these three different models of closed-loop supply chain and provides a theoretical basis for the futher study on coordinate model.
(3) Discussed under different parameters conditions,the change of closed-loop supply chain coordinate mode.The model did not make too many conditions on the assumptions of parameters but discussed extensively in order to make the model being more applicapble.From the laws concluded from these cases,this study got some intuitive conclusions by analysis their management meaning.Finally,it proposes some advice on how to take use of these laws to closed-loop supply chain members.
本文的主要研究工作及成果:
(1)在介绍了闭环供应链几种常见的回收模式的基础上,通过分析每种模式下不同的利润构成,构建了闭环供应链演化博弈模型的收益矩阵。并且将不同的合作策略对应于现实中的回收模式,从而为运用演化博弈理论解决闭环供应链成员间合作策略协调问题建立了基础。通过演化博弈理论复制动态方程的演算得到了博弈双方群体的演化稳定策略。并在此基础上,通过运用群体比例变化动态分析图讨论了不同情况下,制造商和销售商两群体比例的复制动态关系。将结果进行分类汇总后,总结得出了一些规律性的结论:①市场需求D(P)对演化稳定策略没有影响;②回收价格A对演化稳定策略影响巨大;③利润分配比例s与补贴价格B具有较强的相关性。从而为今后现实应用提供了可供参考的依据。
(2)在有第三方参与的情况下得到以下两个结论:①制造商选择合作所投入的成本C_M直接影响演化结果;②初始投入系数的差别对演化结果没有直接影响。并将两类模型进行对比分析得到结论有:①回收价格A与补贴价格B均会对模型产生重要影响;②有第三方参与时初始状态的敏感性体现的更为充分。
(3)选取极具代表性的轮胎业进行的实证分析,在相应调查的基础上,对模型的参数进行了合理的赋值,并按照构建的演化模型进行计算分析,最终得出两群体长期演化的稳定策略。
与已有的国内外相关研究相比,本文的创新之处体现在以下几点:
(1)本文采用现代经济学前沿理论-演化博弈理论作为基础工具建立模型对闭环供应链协调问题展开研究。此前文献主要是采用对函数进行极值分析的方法提出闭环供应链模式选择结论。而演化博弈理论这种被越来越多经济学家和社会学家应用于解释、预测参与人群体行为的经济学理论方法,可以有效弥补现有闭环供应链理论的不足,作为研究闭环供应链协调的新方法。
(2)在收益矩阵的构造中将博弈双方群体不同的合作策略的选择与现实中双方合作模式对应起来。以制造商和销售商博弈收益矩阵的构造为例,前者为制造商选择,后者为销售商选择。(合作,合作)策略对应中心协调模式;(合作,不合作)对应制造商负责回收模式;(不合作,合作)对应销售商负责回收模式;(不合作,不合作)对应不回收模式。这样的构建方式将闭环供应链中存在的三种不同模式紧密的联系在一起,从而为分析研究双方的协调模式提供了理论基础。
(3)讨论了不同参数条件下,闭环供应链模式的变化。为了使模型更具应用性,模型中没有对参数条件作过多的假设,而是对参数的不同取值可能进行了广泛的讨论。从这些不同情况中归纳出其规律性,并用管理学含义分析得出若干较直观结论。最后,为闭环供应链节点企业提供了如何运用这种规律的建议。
With the people's awareness of environmental protection strengthen and constraints of regulations and laws to environmental protection increasing,more and more enterprises began to recovery products;at the same time as the natural resources becoming tenser,the economic value of reverse logistics is also gradually obvious. The effective management of reverse logistics and the closed-loop supply chain can not only promote the optimization of the ecological environment and promoting socio-economic sustainable development,but also product obvious economic benefits for the enterprises and enhance their competitive edge.As same as the traditional open-loop supply chain,in the closed-loop supply chain,each member of the business are independent economic entities,which has its own strategic objective.With this objective,the enterprises make decision of how to use resources,and how to coordinate the external environment,as well as to take what action to achieve this objective.So,with the focus on long-term,this article tried to study closed-loop supply chain nodes in the corresponding business combination of different parameters to take different modes of cooperation.And got the conclusion that the different parameters of closed-loop supply chain decide the different model in which may have different coordinate act on key parameters.
Main research works and achievements of this dissertation:
(1) On the basis of introduction of some common mode of recovery in the closed-loop supply chain,this dissertation build the payoff matrix of the evolution game model through analyze profits of each different mode.Through connsponding the different strategies of cooperation to the reality of recovery mode,so as to make a foundation of the use of evolutionary game theory to solve the closed-loop supply chain strategy of cooperation among the members.Through the replicator dynamic equation calculus the evolution stable strategy of the two groups in the game.On this basis,analyze the different replicator dynamic of manufacters and retailers through the use of dynamics analysis of figure with percentage of population of these two groups.After results being classified summary,summing up some conclusions of law, make a foundation of the application in reality for futures.①Market demand has no effect on the evolution strategy;②recovery price has a huge impact on the evolution of the strategy;③distribution ratio of profits and subsidy price has high relevance with each other.
(2) There are two conclusions when a third-party takes part in:①the cost of manufacturers by choosing cooperation have a direct impact on the outcome of evolution;②initial invest factor do not directly affect the outcome of the evolution. The conclusion got by comparative analysis of two types of models is:①recovery price and subsidized price both have a major impact on the model;②when there is a third party involved in the initial state of the sensitivity reflected more fully.
(3) Select the most representative tire industry in the empirical analysis.On the basis of corresponding investigations,assign the parameters of the model reasonablly, and in accordance with the construction of the evolution of the model calculation and analysis in order to work out the evolution stable strategy of the two groups in a long run.
Compare with the relevant study,the main innovations of this dissertation:
(1) In this dissertation,the forefront of modern economic theory-evolutionary game theory was taken as a basis for modeling tools for the study on cooperation in closed-loop supply chain.Prior to this literature got the conclusion mainly through analysis the extreme values of the closed-loop supply chain models.The evolutionary game theory has been used by more and more economists and sociologists to explain and predict the behavior of groups of the participated people.So this method can effectively fill the existing closed-loop supply chain theory of the lack of research as a closed-loop supply chain,and as a new method of coordination.
(2) Corresponding the choice of cooperation strategy with the reality cooperation model in the payoff matrix structure of the game.Take the construct of payoff matrix between manufacturer and distributor as an example;the former is the choice of manufacturer while latter is retailer.(cooperation,cooperation) corresponds to center coordinate strategy model;(cooperation,non-cooperation) corresponds to the manufacturer responsible for the recovery model;(non-cooperation,cooperation) corresponds to the retailer responsible for the recovery model;(non-cooperative, non-cooperation) corresponds to non-recovery model.Such a way of building uses the link between these three different models of closed-loop supply chain and provides a theoretical basis for the futher study on coordinate model.
(3) Discussed under different parameters conditions,the change of closed-loop supply chain coordinate mode.The model did not make too many conditions on the assumptions of parameters but discussed extensively in order to make the model being more applicapble.From the laws concluded from these cases,this study got some intuitive conclusions by analysis their management meaning.Finally,it proposes some advice on how to take use of these laws to closed-loop supply chain members.
引文
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