城市供水预报与应急调度技术研究及应用
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摘要
伴随着全球气候变化,我国气候异常和极端天气事件频发,由极端干旱引发的城市供水危机时有发生；与此同时突发性水污染事故频发,尤其是美国发生“9.11”事件及松花江化工污染事件后,城市供水安全问题日趋严峻和突显；而由洪涝、地震、旱灾、火灾、风暴潮、沙尘暴、泥石流等自然地质灾害、战争、人为破坏等重大突发事故均可能破坏饮用水源,毁坏供水管线、供水设施以及水厂,造成灾期和灾后一段时期内无法供应符合卫生安全要求的饮用水局面,给人类的生命和财产造成巨大痛苦和损失。因此,为了预防由极端天气和突发事件引起的城市供水不安全问题,保障我国城市供水安全与可持续发展,在总结国内外研究现状的基础上,提出了城市供水应急预警理论基础,构建了城市枯季供需水预报技术、应急预警技术、应急调度模型及应急管理系统,并以安阳市为例,分析和探讨了安阳市平原区城市供水应急预警模型的构建与实际应用。其中主要成果包括以下几方面：
(1)系统阐述了城市供水预报预警及应急调度理论基础。介绍了城市供水预报方法、城市供水突发事件的分类分级、应急预警组成、预警级别及信息发布,给出了城市供水应急预案和应急调度措施。
(2)城市枯季供需水预报与预警技术
根据我国枯季径流的特点,建立了基于BP神经网络的水库枯季径流预报模型技术、以地下水数值模拟模型为基础基于水均衡方程的地下水可开采量预报模型以及枯季需水量分析预报模型和城市枯季供需水预报模型,并提出了城市供水安全预警技术,包括预警等级划分、审批权限、发布流程、预警指标和预警标准(水库、地下水源地等)等研究方法和技术。
(3)基于规则的城市供水应急调度模型技术
以城市供水应急调度网络图为基础,建立了基于规则的城市供水应急调度模型,即在严格遵循事先给定的一系列系统运行规则基础上,尽可能保证供水安全或所受影响最小,依据城市供水水源优先利用顺序和用水户优先满足顺序,采取“优先水源先分配、优先用户先满足”的调度方式、设置工程分水参数、水库调度运行规则、地下水利用规则、水源转换参数、水源利用限制、用水需求等,通过城市供水应急调度逐日调节计算,快速解决在多水源、多用户、多工程的城市供水系统中存在的水文补偿作用、工程补偿作用、应急水源利用与调度等复杂的调节计算问题,及时获得面向城市供水安全的应急调度方案。
(4)城市供水安全应急预警与应急管理系统
以现有数据库为基础,利用本论文建立的预报、预警和应急调度模型,采用面向对象的设计理念,开发了城市供水安全应急预警与调度系统,实现了数据管理(信息服务)、预案管理、供需水情势预报、应急预警(报警)、应急调度等功能,为供水安全应急管理提供了决策平台。
(5)构建了安阳市城市供水安全应急预警模型。根据安阳市的供水特点,利用本文提出的预警理论、预警技术、预警模型和管理系统,给出了预警标准和预警结果,并在此基础上按不同类型的突发事件分别设置了不同情景进行分析,最终给出安阳市安全供水的调度方案。
With the global climate change, climatic anomaly and extreme weather events frequently occur in China, urban water supply crisis which are caused by extreme drought have occurred; at the same time, sudden water pollution accidents frequently occur, particularly, After "9.11"event happened in America and "Song Huajiang" chemical contamination event, the problem of urban water supply safety becomes severe and highlight; once more, The accidents that are caused by geological hazard which includes flood, earthquake, drought, fire disaster,storm, mud-flow and so on, War, human damage, are likely to destroy the source of drinking water, water pipeline,water facilities and waterworks, unable to supply drinking water to meet the requirements of healthy and during the period of disaster and after disaster, cause great pain and loss to human life and property. Therefore, in order to prevent watersupply insecurities which are caused by extreme weather and emergencies, to protect the security and sustainable development of China's urban water supply, on the basis of summing up the research status of home and abroad, put forward the foundation of urban water supply emergency warning, build the forecasting technology of urban water supply and demand at dry season, emergency warning technology, the emergency scheduling model and emergengcy management system, at last, taking Anyang city as an example, analyse and discuss the building and application of urban water supply emergency warning model of the plain areas of Anyang city. The main research results and conclusions are as followed:
(1)Expound the theorecical foundation of urban water supply forecasting warning and emergency dispatching systematically. Introduce the method of water supply forecasting, the category and the grade of emergencies, the composition and the grade of warning, publish of information; provide the emergency plan and emergency dispatching measures.
(2)The forecasting technology of urban water supply and demand in the dry season.
According to the characteristics of China'lowflow, establish the technology of runoff forecasting model of reservoir at dry season based on BP neural network, as basis to the groundwater numerical model, build up the forecasting model of the available groundwater based on the water balance equation, the forecasting model of water demand and the forecasting model of urban water supply and demand at dry season, put forward the technology of urban water supply security warning, incuding the research methodes and technologies of the division of warning grade, approval authority, issuing process, the indicators and standards of early warning(reservoir and the groundwater sources).
(3)The technology of urban water supply emergency dispatching model based on rules.
According to the network map of urban water supply emergency dispatching, establish the model of urban water supply emergency scheduling based on rules, that is to say, strictly follow to the series system operating rules, as far as possible to to ensure the security of water supply or the least affected, according to the order of urban water supply sources priority utilited and users priority meet, take the scheduling way of the priority water sources first applied and priority users first meet、set project watershed parameters、 the operation rules of reservoir dispatching、the rules of groundwater utilized、water resource conversion parameters、the protection of water resources utilized、water demand and so on, through the daily adjustment calculation of urban water supply emergency dispatching, quickly solve the questions of complex calculation of hydrological compensating, engineering compensating, emergency water sources utilized and scheduled,which exist in urban water supply system which are more water sources,more users, more engineering, abtain the emergency scheduling scheme of facing to urban water supply security on time.
(4)The system of urban water supply security emergrncy warning and emergency management
Based on the existing database, using the forecasting model、the warning model and the emergency dispatching model,which are set up in the paper, using the concept of object-oriented design, develope the system of urban water supply security emergency warning and emergency scheduling, achieve the functions of data management(information services)、plan management、water supply and demand forecasting、emergency warning(alarm)、emergency dispatching, provide a decision-making platform for urban water supply emergency management.
(5) Set up the model of urban water supply security emergency warning in Anyang city.
According to the characteristic of water supply, using the warning theory、warning thenology、warning model and management system, which are put forward in the paper, give the warning standard and warning result, and then, analyse different scenarios which are set up by different emergencies, at last, give the plan of urban water supply security emergency dispatching of Anyang city.
(1)系统阐述了城市供水预报预警及应急调度理论基础。介绍了城市供水预报方法、城市供水突发事件的分类分级、应急预警组成、预警级别及信息发布,给出了城市供水应急预案和应急调度措施。
(2)城市枯季供需水预报与预警技术
根据我国枯季径流的特点,建立了基于BP神经网络的水库枯季径流预报模型技术、以地下水数值模拟模型为基础基于水均衡方程的地下水可开采量预报模型以及枯季需水量分析预报模型和城市枯季供需水预报模型,并提出了城市供水安全预警技术,包括预警等级划分、审批权限、发布流程、预警指标和预警标准(水库、地下水源地等)等研究方法和技术。
(3)基于规则的城市供水应急调度模型技术
以城市供水应急调度网络图为基础,建立了基于规则的城市供水应急调度模型,即在严格遵循事先给定的一系列系统运行规则基础上,尽可能保证供水安全或所受影响最小,依据城市供水水源优先利用顺序和用水户优先满足顺序,采取“优先水源先分配、优先用户先满足”的调度方式、设置工程分水参数、水库调度运行规则、地下水利用规则、水源转换参数、水源利用限制、用水需求等,通过城市供水应急调度逐日调节计算,快速解决在多水源、多用户、多工程的城市供水系统中存在的水文补偿作用、工程补偿作用、应急水源利用与调度等复杂的调节计算问题,及时获得面向城市供水安全的应急调度方案。
(4)城市供水安全应急预警与应急管理系统
以现有数据库为基础,利用本论文建立的预报、预警和应急调度模型,采用面向对象的设计理念,开发了城市供水安全应急预警与调度系统,实现了数据管理(信息服务)、预案管理、供需水情势预报、应急预警(报警)、应急调度等功能,为供水安全应急管理提供了决策平台。
(5)构建了安阳市城市供水安全应急预警模型。根据安阳市的供水特点,利用本文提出的预警理论、预警技术、预警模型和管理系统,给出了预警标准和预警结果,并在此基础上按不同类型的突发事件分别设置了不同情景进行分析,最终给出安阳市安全供水的调度方案。
With the global climate change, climatic anomaly and extreme weather events frequently occur in China, urban water supply crisis which are caused by extreme drought have occurred; at the same time, sudden water pollution accidents frequently occur, particularly, After "9.11"event happened in America and "Song Huajiang" chemical contamination event, the problem of urban water supply safety becomes severe and highlight; once more, The accidents that are caused by geological hazard which includes flood, earthquake, drought, fire disaster,storm, mud-flow and so on, War, human damage, are likely to destroy the source of drinking water, water pipeline,water facilities and waterworks, unable to supply drinking water to meet the requirements of healthy and during the period of disaster and after disaster, cause great pain and loss to human life and property. Therefore, in order to prevent watersupply insecurities which are caused by extreme weather and emergencies, to protect the security and sustainable development of China's urban water supply, on the basis of summing up the research status of home and abroad, put forward the foundation of urban water supply emergency warning, build the forecasting technology of urban water supply and demand at dry season, emergency warning technology, the emergency scheduling model and emergengcy management system, at last, taking Anyang city as an example, analyse and discuss the building and application of urban water supply emergency warning model of the plain areas of Anyang city. The main research results and conclusions are as followed:
(1)Expound the theorecical foundation of urban water supply forecasting warning and emergency dispatching systematically. Introduce the method of water supply forecasting, the category and the grade of emergencies, the composition and the grade of warning, publish of information; provide the emergency plan and emergency dispatching measures.
(2)The forecasting technology of urban water supply and demand in the dry season.
According to the characteristics of China'lowflow, establish the technology of runoff forecasting model of reservoir at dry season based on BP neural network, as basis to the groundwater numerical model, build up the forecasting model of the available groundwater based on the water balance equation, the forecasting model of water demand and the forecasting model of urban water supply and demand at dry season, put forward the technology of urban water supply security warning, incuding the research methodes and technologies of the division of warning grade, approval authority, issuing process, the indicators and standards of early warning(reservoir and the groundwater sources).
(3)The technology of urban water supply emergency dispatching model based on rules.
According to the network map of urban water supply emergency dispatching, establish the model of urban water supply emergency scheduling based on rules, that is to say, strictly follow to the series system operating rules, as far as possible to to ensure the security of water supply or the least affected, according to the order of urban water supply sources priority utilited and users priority meet, take the scheduling way of the priority water sources first applied and priority users first meet、set project watershed parameters、 the operation rules of reservoir dispatching、the rules of groundwater utilized、water resource conversion parameters、the protection of water resources utilized、water demand and so on, through the daily adjustment calculation of urban water supply emergency dispatching, quickly solve the questions of complex calculation of hydrological compensating, engineering compensating, emergency water sources utilized and scheduled,which exist in urban water supply system which are more water sources,more users, more engineering, abtain the emergency scheduling scheme of facing to urban water supply security on time.
(4)The system of urban water supply security emergrncy warning and emergency management
Based on the existing database, using the forecasting model、the warning model and the emergency dispatching model,which are set up in the paper, using the concept of object-oriented design, develope the system of urban water supply security emergency warning and emergency scheduling, achieve the functions of data management(information services)、plan management、water supply and demand forecasting、emergency warning(alarm)、emergency dispatching, provide a decision-making platform for urban water supply emergency management.
(5) Set up the model of urban water supply security emergency warning in Anyang city.
According to the characteristic of water supply, using the warning theory、warning thenology、warning model and management system, which are put forward in the paper, give the warning standard and warning result, and then, analyse different scenarios which are set up by different emergencies, at last, give the plan of urban water supply security emergency dispatching of Anyang city.
引文
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