中国人口迁移与区域经济发展差异研究
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摘要
2001年诺贝尔经济学奖获得者斯蒂格勒茨曾说:“中国的城市化与美国的高科技发展将是深刻影响人类21世纪发展的两大主题”。中国正发生着世界上最大规模的人口迁移活动,伴随着人口迁移活动,城市化和城市经济得到快速发展。某种程度上,人口迁移成为中国城市化进程的一个重要组成部分。因此人口迁移研究具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。
改革开放以来,在制度变迁和经济转型共同作用下,地区之间经济发展差异日益扩大,成为人口迁移最重要的影响因素。在关于中国人口迁移与区域经济发展差异关系的研究中,省市尺度的研究较多,而从地级市尺度进行这样的研究尚不多见。中国地域广阔,人口众多,区域经济差异较大,仅从省级尺度上把握人口迁移可能会漏失一些重要信息,对人口迁移特征的把握也显得过于粗疏,而且从计量经济学角度来讲,由于省级单位数量较少,计量分析因样本量过小也会影响计量结果的可靠性。因此本文将主要以地级市为基本单元,对中国人口迁移与区域经济发展差异问题展开研究。
本文研究的主要问题是:地级市的人口迁移状况如何?地市间人口迁移有没有不同于省际人口迁移的规律?经济活动与人口迁移是如何相互作用的?人口迁移对迁入地和迁出地经济发展的影响及对东中西区域间经济发展差异的影响怎样?都市圈——全国经济发展引擎地区,城市人口迁移和经济增长的发展动态及可资借鉴之处是什么?空间经济学“中心—外围”理论能否解释中国的人口迁移等问题?如何从宏观经济政策方面更好地促进人口迁移,收获人口红利,更快地促进区域经济和谐发展?等等。
本文按照如下顺序展开:首先,从区域的层面描述中国近30年人口和经济活动空间分布的总体态势,然后从城市层面,利用2000年全国第五次人口普查资料,考察地市间的人口迁移特征,探讨全国性的一般规律;接下来再以经济最发达的“中心地区”——三大都市圈的城市为重点,考察城市的人口迁移与经济发展动态,并根据都市圈1990年和2000年两位数子行业的制造业区位商,分析制造业结构变动与人口迁移之间的关系,讨论通过人口迁移收获人口红利的途径;
其次,用计量经济学方法对地级市样本进行计量分析,研究人口迁移与区域经济发展差异之间的相互影响及其大小,并进一步从多个角度考察人口迁移对区域经济发展的影响。如我国制造业“中心”——农业“外围”格局的演化,人口迁移对区域经济发展差距的影响,智力流失对中西部地区经济发展的影响,人力资本对区域经济差异的影响,未成年人口迁移对迁入地公共服务(以义务教育为例)的需求及供需矛盾解决等。
最后,在前文分析的基础上,简述对未来人口迁移态势的估计,并针对前文所讨论的主要问题提出一些政策建议。
本文研究主要有下列发现:
1、关于地市间人口迁移活动规律,基本上符合如拉文斯坦等学者总结的人口迁移规律:距离、经济发展水平差异等影响人口迁移的规模和方向,人们倾向于由近到远,向经济发展水平高于原来居住地的地区迁移。除此之外,本文还发现了一些过去省际迁移研究所没有发现的迁移规律,如:省内地市间人口迁移首先向省会城市集中,西部地区向省会城市集中度最高,中部次之,而东部地区出现了与省会城市竞争的其他省内人口迁入中心,打破了省会城市人口迁入中心的“一元化”局面,出现“二元化”甚至”多元化”现象;虽然整个东部地带在省际迁移层面都表现为净迁入地区,但是地级市之间分化比较明显,而非都市圈地区倾向于向都市圈地区迁移,都市圈的城市和中西部的省会城市为主要的净迁入城市;中部与西部地带也有差异,中部地带除了省会城市以外,其他城市几乎都表现为人口净迁出。而西部地带虽然也是人口净迁出地带,但是人口净迁入的城市多一些,主要是经济重镇和少数民族地区;
2、在现有数据条件下,建立以地级市为基本地域单元的计量经济学模型,对中国人口迁移与区域经济发展关系进行实证分析,发现:(1)区域初始经济发展条件影响人口迁移率,这些条件包括城市初始的工资水平、FDI合同金额、人均耕地面积、人口规模、农业人口比重等,其中工资水平是最重要的影响因素;而人口净迁移对区域经济发展具有正相关影响,人口净迁入有利于当地经济发展,人口净迁出反之。人均受教育年限对城市人均GDP有显著的正向影响,而总人口抚养比与人均GDP负相关,表明中国人口红利期对经济发展较为有利;净迁移率对工资增长率有负相关影响,同时,中部地区工资增长率高于全国平均水平,与发达国家经验一致,人口净迁入地区由于劳动力供给充裕,使工资增长受到向下压力,而人口净迁出地区则反之。由此可以解释大量人口迁入的珠三角为什么工资增长水平近几年落后于其他都市圈地区。都市圈地区人口迁移的区域经济影响因素不同于非都市圈和全国地级市模型,后两者比较接近。(2)人口迁出可能会缩小中西部地区的市场规模,但是财政支出对西部地区城市市场规模的维持有重要作用,西部大开发战略对于缩小东西部地区差异已发现有重要影响;西部大开发战略有效地缩小了区域经济差距,中西部地区的智力流失较为严重,对迁出地经济发展的负面影响在2年后最为明显,随后对中部地区的不利影响逐渐减小,而对西部地区的不利影响消除较慢;
3、关于都市圈地区经济发展和人口迁移的研究发现:(1)珠三角的就业增长率远远高于其他两个都市圈和全国在同期的就业增长率,在整个90年代,虽然珠三角和长三角都是人口迁入中心,但是珠三角创造的就业机会远远大于长三角,显示了它强大的就业岗位创造能力和经济发展活力。珠三角的经济增长伴随着就业高增长,而长三角地区的经济增长却没有相应的高就业增长。在1990—2000年与2000—2005年两个期间,珠江三角洲和长江三角洲城市的就业增长发生了很大变化,形成城市排名的剧烈变化。总体来看,长三角的苏锡常嘉兴有后来居上的势头,而珠三角的部分城市有下降趋势,这与一些新闻报道中所讲,部分农民工从珠三角转到长三角寻找打工机会的报道比较吻合。(2)从都市圈城市制造业就业人员占全国份额的变化来看,从1996到2005年,都市圈各个城市制造业的发展比较稳定,2000年的趋势在2005年得以继续保持,但是从1996年到2005年十年间,制造业在三大都市圈内部各个城市的竞争力有较大的变化。1996年、2000年、2005年的制造业人员所占份额首都圈稳定小幅增长,珠三角2000年与2005年期间份额增加了1倍,说明珠三角的制造业在2000年以后竞争力迅速增强,制造业仍然快速发展,制造业吸纳劳动力较多,长三角一直是制造业从业人员份额最大的地区,在2000年长三角制造业份额有所增加,但是到2005年,长三角的份额下降,而珠三角却大幅扩大,上海在2000—2005年期间制造业占全国份额明显下降,显示离心力开始发挥作用。同时,制造业向都市圈地区集聚的速度加快了,1996—2000年期间,都市圈制造业份额增加了2.5个百分点,而2000—2005年期间却增加了5.04个百分点。(3)80年代到90年代后期,珠三角的工资水平很有竞争力,长三角其次,首都圈最差,但是90年代后半期珠三角的大多数城市在90年代后半期的工资增长率处于较低水平,低于同期的长三角和首都圈,提供了人口迁移与工资增长率负相关的中国案例。(4)受FDI区位选择影响,珠三角和长三角地区专业化经济和城市化经济得到快速发展,而中西部地区则失去了新兴产业的份额,人口迁移方向主要是迁入新兴产业得到较好成长的地区;在城市层级上研究制造业中心—外围格局演化,发现整个中西部省会城市几乎都在失去份额,说明中西部地区正全面陷落,我国目前正在形成以东部沿海地区为制造业“中心”而中西部地区为农业“外围”的区域分工格局,如果没有外力干预,这种格局还将延续。同时,在东部地区内部城市之间,制造业由集中趋于分散,但分散化的范围还限于东部地区内部,一些原来工业基础较为薄弱的城市发展为地方专业化程度较高的城市,如深圳、东莞等地。
4.中国正处于人口红利期,劳动力充裕和总人口抚养比较低有利于经济增长,自80年代起,人口红利已经对中国经济增长有近30年的贡献,但是中国人口素质较低,某些地方政府资金密集型产业投资偏好可能偏离我国的比较优势,这些都不利于收获人口红利。计量模型显示,教育、人口迁移和较低的抚养比对人均GDP都有促进作用,尤其是教育。
基于以上结论,本文主要提出如下政策建议:第一,人口迁移可以促进经济效率提高,因此应该继续促进人口流动;第二,就业同时增长的经济增长应该是我们追求的模式,长三角较低就业增长的事实提醒我们,要重视发挥中国的比较优势——劳动力成本优势,才能有效地收获人口红利;第三,教育对经济效率提高有比较突出的显著正向影响,并且8年人均受教育年限是个重要的分界点,只有超过这点,教育才能对经济发展具有重要的跃升作用,因此应该大力实施九年义务教育,提升人力资本,同时,切实解决流动儿童在迁入地接受义务教育的问题,提升远期人力资本;第四,发挥中西部比较优势,发展相关产业,国家保持对西部较高的财政支出水平,坚持推进“西部大开发战略”,有利于促进中国区域经济和谐发展;第五,一定时期内,中西部实施促进中等城市优先发展的城市化措施将会优于大力发展小城镇的城市化措施。
本文的创新主要在以下三点:
1、首次从地级市尺度系统地对中国人口迁移和区域经济发展差异关系进行了较深入的研究,发现了一些过去在省际人口迁移中所没有发现的人口迁移特征,如省内地市间人口迁移首先向省会城市集中,西部地区人口迁移向省会城市集中度最高,中部次之,而东部地区出现了与省会城市竞争的其他省内人口迁入中心,打破了人口迁移省会城市的“一元化”局面,出现“二元化”甚至”多元化”现象等;
2、建立计量经济学模型,首次从不同人口属性的迁移人口与区域经济发展差异的相互影响及其大小的角度,进行定量分析,如计量分析了24—34岁和24—64岁大学毕业、就业移民的迁出对中西部地区经济发展的影响;讨论随迁未成年人口对迁入地公共服务(公共设施)的需求和供需矛盾产生的原因及解决办法等现实问题等。
3、综合人口迁移与新空间经济学等理论,对区域、城市(都市圈城市)经济发展轨迹进行实证分析和合理解释。如在城市层级上,实证研究制造业中心—外围格局演化,发现整个中西部省会城市几乎都在失去份额,说明中西部地区正全面陷落,陷入“无心化”状态,不仅在区域、省市尺度上,而且在城市尺度上也显示,以东部沿海地区为制造业“中心”而中西部地区为农业“外围”的区域演化格局成立。同时,在东部地区内部,制造业由集中趋于分散,而分散化的范围还局限于东部地区内部,一些原来工业基础较为薄弱的城市发展为地方专业化程度较高的城市。
本文的不足之处包括:
第一,由于人口普查每十年进行一次,难以获得连续的时间序列数据,并且从2000年第五次全国人口普查,才有地级市、县一级迁出地的调查,目前仅有1995-2000年地市间人口迁移横截面数据,也没有关于迁移人口收入的调查,因此难以运用结构方程、面板数据等计量估计方法;
第二,因数据不充分,不能对所有地级市展开研究,某些章节只能以都市圈城市为主进行重点研究。
Joseph E.Stiglitz, Nobel Prize winner in Economics in 2001, said "the two themes that will significantly affect the development of human beings in the 21st century are the urbanization in China and high tech development in the United States." The most massive migration is taking place in China. With the population migration, the urbanization and urban economy are developing rapidly as well. To some extent, China's urban population migration becomes an important component of urbanization in China. Therefore, it is an important theoretical and practical significance to study population migration.
Since the reform and opening up, differences in regional economic development continually increase because of the political system changes and the economic restructuring, which becomes the most important factor that affects the population migration. The studies of the relation between population migration and regional economic development in China are mostly on the province level instead of on the city level. Considering the fact of China's extensive territory, large population and great regional economic disparities in China, it is not accurate enough to study the population migration only on the provincial-level. Moreover, from the perspective of econometrics, the small quantity of the samples in the econometric analysis, which is limited by the province number in China, would affect the reliability of the results. Therefore, this paper studies the population migration and regional economic development differences on the city-level.
Questions addressed in this thesis are the followings: What is the current situation of inter-city population migration? Are there any differences in the population migration between inter-city and inter-province? How do the economic development and population change affect each other? How does the population migration affect the economic development in east China, west China and central China? What is the current situation of and what can be referenced as the urban migration and the economic development in metropolis, the engine of national economic development? Is the "center- periphery" theory in space economics able to explain the population migration in China? How are the macroeconomic policies able to better encourage migration, to better gain the demographic bonus, and to promote the harmonious development of regional economy faster?
This thesis is organized as the following: First, the overall trend of regional distribution of population and economic activities in the last 30 years in China is described. The inter-city population migration is investigated by using the fifth census data in 2000, from which the general rule of population migration in China is investigated. The urban population migration and urban economies development are investigated through the three metropolitan regions (Beijing, Shanghai and Guangdong), which are the most developed areas in China and may be called "central region". The evolution of the manufacturing structure and labor force changes in the "central region" are investigated, and how to gain demographic bonus by population migration are discussed as well.
Secondly, city samples are quantitatively analyzed using econometrics method, and how population migration and the regional economic development may affect each other is investigated extensively. Specifically, how does the situation of focusing on manufacturing while ignoring agriculture affect the regional economy? How does the population migration affect the regional economic development speed? How does the "brain drain" affect the economic development in central and west regions? How does human capita] affect the regional economy? What is the compulsory education requirement for minors who immigrate with their parents, and how should the requirement be satisfied?
Finally, future population migration is predicted according to the analysis in this thesis, and suggestions to the future policy for the questions addressed above are provided.
Conclusions of this thesis are the followings:
1.Inter-city population migration activities are basically in line with some of population migration laws proposed by E.GRavenstein. Distance and differences in economic development affect the number and direction of population migration. Specifically, people tend to move to the area nearby and with higher economic development. In addition to this trend, some unseen migration characteristics are found. Specifically, population migration within a province shows the trend of moving from other cities to the capital city of the province, which is most significant in west China, and less significant in mid China. However, people may move to other cities besides the capital cities of the provinces in east China. Although the entirety of east China has a net intake of population in the inter-provincial migration levels, in the inter-city level within a province the population migration is different. For example, people tend to move from non-metropolitan areas to metropolitan ones. There is difference between central and western regions too. Specifically, in central regions almost all cities except the capitals have net emigration, while there are more cities with net immigration besides the capital cities in western regions. These cities are generally either economic centers or ethnic minority areas, although western regions also have a net inter-province emigration.
2.Based on these available data, an econometric model using city as the basic region unit is established. Based on empirical analysis on the relation between China's population migration and regional economic development, the observations include the following: (1) the initial development conditions of the regional economy affects the rate of population migration, which include initial urban wage level, the amount of FDI contracts, the per capita arable land area, population size, and the proportion of the farming population, among which the wage level is the most important factor. There is a positive correlation between net population migration and regional economic development. Specifically, net immigration benefits the local economic development, while net emigration does the opposite. The average number of years of education of population shows a significant positive impact on per capita GDP of a city, but the total dependency ratio is negatively correlated with per capita GDP, which means that the demographic bonus in China is more beneficial to economic development. Net migration rate is negatively correlated with wage growth. On the other hand, in the central region wage growth rate is higher than the national average, in line with the experience of developed countries, because abundant supply of labor due to net immigration forces wage to decrease. This may explain why wage growth in Pearl River Delta, which has a large net immigration, is behind other metropolises in recent years. The impact of population migration on regional economy in metropolitan areas is different from the non-metropolitan areas and cities. (2) Population emigration could reduce the size of the market in the central and western regions, but public expenditure plays an important role in the maintenance of the market size in western regions. Development of western regions is very important to reduce the differences between eastern and western regions. Brain drain in western and central regions is significant; the negative effects on the economic development in the population emigration regions will reach maximum in two years, and then subsequently decrease. However, the rate of decrease in western regions will be slower than in central regions. 3.The study of economic development and population migration in metropolitan areas shows: (1) the employment growth rate in the Pearl River Delta is much higher than that in the other two metropolitan areas and the same time national average employment growth rate. In 1990s, although the Yangtze River delta and the Pearl River Delta are both immigration centers, the Pearl River Delta has created much more employment opportunities than the Yangtze River Delta, which demonstrates its strong ability to create jobs and economic vitality. The Pearl River Delta's economic growth is accompanied by high employment growth, while economic growth in the Yangtze River Delta has not brought a corresponding high employment growth. In the periods of 1990-2000 and 2000-2005, employment growth in the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta had undergone great changes, resulting in a dramatic change in city rank. Generally speaking, the ranks of Suzhou, Wuxi, Changshu, and Jiaxing in the Yangtze River Delta seem to rise quickly, while the ranks of some cities in the Pearl River Delta drop, which corresponds with workers moving from the Pearl River Delta to the Yangtze River Delta for job opportunities as reported in the news. (2) From the proportion change of employment in the manufacturing industries in metropolises to the nation, the development of the manufacturing industry is relatively stable in metropolitan areas. However, in the decade from 1996 to 2005, the competitiveness of manufacturing industrials in the three major metropolitan areas dramatically changed. In 1996, 2000, 2005, the manufacturing employment increases slightly in Beijing area, while the manufacturing employment doubled from 2000 to 2005 in the Pearl River Delta. This showed that the competitiveness of manufacturing industries in the Pearl River Delta increased quickly after 2000 and manufacturing developed very quickly and absorbed most of labor force. The Yangtze River Delta has the largest share of manufacturing employment. The manufacturing employment in the Yangtze River Delta increased in 2000, but decreased in 2005. Meanwhile, the manufacturing employment in the Pearl River Delta largely increased. At the same time, the manufacturing industries gathered to metropolitan areas faster. Specifically, from 1996 to 2000 the proportion of manufacturing industries in metropolitan areas increased by 2.5%, and from 2000 to 2005 it increased by 5.04%. (3) From 1980s to the late 1990s, the wage level in the Pearl River Delta was very competitive, the Yangtze River Delta was the second most competitive, and Beijing area was least competitive. However, in late 1990s most cities in the Pearl River Delta had relatively low wage growth rates. They were generally lower than the same period in the Yangtze River Delta and Beijing area, and provided a sample of population migration negatively correlated with wage growth rate. (4) Influenced by FDI location choice, the specialized economy and urban economy in the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta developed quickly, while the central and western regions lost their share of the rising industries. Population mainly migrated to the areas where rising industries developed quickest. It is found that the capital cities of the entire central and western provinces lost the manufacturing industries, which may be shown by the studies of the manufacturing "center-periphery" structure in the city-level. The eastern coast regions of China quickly became specialized in manufacturing while central and western regions focused in agriculture. Without outside interference, this structure would be extended. At the same time, among cities in the eastern region, manufacturing industries were more scattered. There had appeared some cities with high level of specialization which originally had weak industrial bases, such as Shenzheng and Dongguan.
4.China is in a demographic bonus period, abundant labor force and relatively low dependent population may contribute to economic growth. Since the 1980s, there has been nearly 30 years when the demographic bonus contributed to the economic development in China. However, the "brain drain" and the fact that some local governments prefer capital-intensive industries, this may deviate from China's comparative advantages, go against gaining demographic bonus. According to econometric model, population migration, low dependency ratio, and particularly education will promote per capita GDP.
Main policy proposals by this thesis are the followings. Firstly, the government should continue to encourage population migration because population migration will promote economic efficiency. Secondly, economic growth accompanied with employment growth should be the pursued mode. The low employment growth in the Yangtze River Delta reminds us that we must give play to China's comparative advantages, including labor cost advantages, in order to effectively gain demographic bonus. Thirdly, education has a significant positive impact on the economic efficiency. The averaged eight-year education is an important demarcation point. When the number of average education years is larger than eight, education becomes an important factor to promote economic development. Therefore, the government should vigorously implement the nine-year compulsory education to enhance human capital, and effectively solve the problem of children that relocate to a new city with their parents, who can not receive a compulsory education. Fourthly, government should exert the comparative advantages in central and western regions to develop relevant industries, and continue development of western regions, while maintaining a relatively high level of public expenditure. Finally, in a certain period of time, it is better to develop large cities in central and western regions first than to develop small towns.
There are three main innovation of this thesis:
1.For the first time, this thesis systematically studied the relation between the population migration and the regional economic development difference in the inter-city level. Some new population migration characteristics are observed, which hasn't been observed in the inter-province population migration. Specifically, population migration inside a province tends to move to the capital city first, which is most significant in western regions, and less significant in central regions. There are other cities where people may move to besides the capital city in the province in eastern regions.
2.This thesis developed an econometric model, and quantitatively analyzed how population migration with different population attributes and regional economic development affect each other for the first time. For example, this thesis quantitatively analyzed the impact of emigration with age between 24 and 34 years old and between 24 and 64 years old on the western and centra] regions. How to effectively solve the problem of children that relocate to a new city with their parents, who can't receive a compulsory education was also discussed in this thesis too. 3.Integrating population migration and the new space economics theory, this thesis analyzed and explained regional and urban (metropolitan areas) economic development. For example, it is found that the almost all capital cities of the entire central and western provinces are losing the manufacturing share, which may be shown by the studies of the manufacturing "center-periphery" structure in the city-level. Not only at regional and provincial scale, but also at city scale, the eastern coast regions of China are quickly becoming specialized in manufacturing while central and western regions are focusing in agriculture. At the same time, among cities in the eastern region, manufacturing industries are more scattered. There have appeared some cities with high level of specialization which originally had weak industrial bases before.
There are also some shortages of this thesis.
Firstly, it was difficult to apply structure equation and panel measurement methods for the analysis.Specifically, it was difficult to get continuous time series data because the census is conductedevery ten years. Moreover, there were no city emigration data until the fifth national census in2000. Currently, the only available cross-section inter-city data were between 1995 and 2000, andthere was no income survey on migration population.
Secondly, the information available was not sufficient to analyze all cities. Only metropolitan areawas studied in some chapters.
改革开放以来,在制度变迁和经济转型共同作用下,地区之间经济发展差异日益扩大,成为人口迁移最重要的影响因素。在关于中国人口迁移与区域经济发展差异关系的研究中,省市尺度的研究较多,而从地级市尺度进行这样的研究尚不多见。中国地域广阔,人口众多,区域经济差异较大,仅从省级尺度上把握人口迁移可能会漏失一些重要信息,对人口迁移特征的把握也显得过于粗疏,而且从计量经济学角度来讲,由于省级单位数量较少,计量分析因样本量过小也会影响计量结果的可靠性。因此本文将主要以地级市为基本单元,对中国人口迁移与区域经济发展差异问题展开研究。
本文研究的主要问题是:地级市的人口迁移状况如何?地市间人口迁移有没有不同于省际人口迁移的规律?经济活动与人口迁移是如何相互作用的?人口迁移对迁入地和迁出地经济发展的影响及对东中西区域间经济发展差异的影响怎样?都市圈——全国经济发展引擎地区,城市人口迁移和经济增长的发展动态及可资借鉴之处是什么?空间经济学“中心—外围”理论能否解释中国的人口迁移等问题?如何从宏观经济政策方面更好地促进人口迁移,收获人口红利,更快地促进区域经济和谐发展?等等。
本文按照如下顺序展开:首先,从区域的层面描述中国近30年人口和经济活动空间分布的总体态势,然后从城市层面,利用2000年全国第五次人口普查资料,考察地市间的人口迁移特征,探讨全国性的一般规律;接下来再以经济最发达的“中心地区”——三大都市圈的城市为重点,考察城市的人口迁移与经济发展动态,并根据都市圈1990年和2000年两位数子行业的制造业区位商,分析制造业结构变动与人口迁移之间的关系,讨论通过人口迁移收获人口红利的途径;
其次,用计量经济学方法对地级市样本进行计量分析,研究人口迁移与区域经济发展差异之间的相互影响及其大小,并进一步从多个角度考察人口迁移对区域经济发展的影响。如我国制造业“中心”——农业“外围”格局的演化,人口迁移对区域经济发展差距的影响,智力流失对中西部地区经济发展的影响,人力资本对区域经济差异的影响,未成年人口迁移对迁入地公共服务(以义务教育为例)的需求及供需矛盾解决等。
最后,在前文分析的基础上,简述对未来人口迁移态势的估计,并针对前文所讨论的主要问题提出一些政策建议。
本文研究主要有下列发现:
1、关于地市间人口迁移活动规律,基本上符合如拉文斯坦等学者总结的人口迁移规律:距离、经济发展水平差异等影响人口迁移的规模和方向,人们倾向于由近到远,向经济发展水平高于原来居住地的地区迁移。除此之外,本文还发现了一些过去省际迁移研究所没有发现的迁移规律,如:省内地市间人口迁移首先向省会城市集中,西部地区向省会城市集中度最高,中部次之,而东部地区出现了与省会城市竞争的其他省内人口迁入中心,打破了省会城市人口迁入中心的“一元化”局面,出现“二元化”甚至”多元化”现象;虽然整个东部地带在省际迁移层面都表现为净迁入地区,但是地级市之间分化比较明显,而非都市圈地区倾向于向都市圈地区迁移,都市圈的城市和中西部的省会城市为主要的净迁入城市;中部与西部地带也有差异,中部地带除了省会城市以外,其他城市几乎都表现为人口净迁出。而西部地带虽然也是人口净迁出地带,但是人口净迁入的城市多一些,主要是经济重镇和少数民族地区;
2、在现有数据条件下,建立以地级市为基本地域单元的计量经济学模型,对中国人口迁移与区域经济发展关系进行实证分析,发现:(1)区域初始经济发展条件影响人口迁移率,这些条件包括城市初始的工资水平、FDI合同金额、人均耕地面积、人口规模、农业人口比重等,其中工资水平是最重要的影响因素;而人口净迁移对区域经济发展具有正相关影响,人口净迁入有利于当地经济发展,人口净迁出反之。人均受教育年限对城市人均GDP有显著的正向影响,而总人口抚养比与人均GDP负相关,表明中国人口红利期对经济发展较为有利;净迁移率对工资增长率有负相关影响,同时,中部地区工资增长率高于全国平均水平,与发达国家经验一致,人口净迁入地区由于劳动力供给充裕,使工资增长受到向下压力,而人口净迁出地区则反之。由此可以解释大量人口迁入的珠三角为什么工资增长水平近几年落后于其他都市圈地区。都市圈地区人口迁移的区域经济影响因素不同于非都市圈和全国地级市模型,后两者比较接近。(2)人口迁出可能会缩小中西部地区的市场规模,但是财政支出对西部地区城市市场规模的维持有重要作用,西部大开发战略对于缩小东西部地区差异已发现有重要影响;西部大开发战略有效地缩小了区域经济差距,中西部地区的智力流失较为严重,对迁出地经济发展的负面影响在2年后最为明显,随后对中部地区的不利影响逐渐减小,而对西部地区的不利影响消除较慢;
3、关于都市圈地区经济发展和人口迁移的研究发现:(1)珠三角的就业增长率远远高于其他两个都市圈和全国在同期的就业增长率,在整个90年代,虽然珠三角和长三角都是人口迁入中心,但是珠三角创造的就业机会远远大于长三角,显示了它强大的就业岗位创造能力和经济发展活力。珠三角的经济增长伴随着就业高增长,而长三角地区的经济增长却没有相应的高就业增长。在1990—2000年与2000—2005年两个期间,珠江三角洲和长江三角洲城市的就业增长发生了很大变化,形成城市排名的剧烈变化。总体来看,长三角的苏锡常嘉兴有后来居上的势头,而珠三角的部分城市有下降趋势,这与一些新闻报道中所讲,部分农民工从珠三角转到长三角寻找打工机会的报道比较吻合。(2)从都市圈城市制造业就业人员占全国份额的变化来看,从1996到2005年,都市圈各个城市制造业的发展比较稳定,2000年的趋势在2005年得以继续保持,但是从1996年到2005年十年间,制造业在三大都市圈内部各个城市的竞争力有较大的变化。1996年、2000年、2005年的制造业人员所占份额首都圈稳定小幅增长,珠三角2000年与2005年期间份额增加了1倍,说明珠三角的制造业在2000年以后竞争力迅速增强,制造业仍然快速发展,制造业吸纳劳动力较多,长三角一直是制造业从业人员份额最大的地区,在2000年长三角制造业份额有所增加,但是到2005年,长三角的份额下降,而珠三角却大幅扩大,上海在2000—2005年期间制造业占全国份额明显下降,显示离心力开始发挥作用。同时,制造业向都市圈地区集聚的速度加快了,1996—2000年期间,都市圈制造业份额增加了2.5个百分点,而2000—2005年期间却增加了5.04个百分点。(3)80年代到90年代后期,珠三角的工资水平很有竞争力,长三角其次,首都圈最差,但是90年代后半期珠三角的大多数城市在90年代后半期的工资增长率处于较低水平,低于同期的长三角和首都圈,提供了人口迁移与工资增长率负相关的中国案例。(4)受FDI区位选择影响,珠三角和长三角地区专业化经济和城市化经济得到快速发展,而中西部地区则失去了新兴产业的份额,人口迁移方向主要是迁入新兴产业得到较好成长的地区;在城市层级上研究制造业中心—外围格局演化,发现整个中西部省会城市几乎都在失去份额,说明中西部地区正全面陷落,我国目前正在形成以东部沿海地区为制造业“中心”而中西部地区为农业“外围”的区域分工格局,如果没有外力干预,这种格局还将延续。同时,在东部地区内部城市之间,制造业由集中趋于分散,但分散化的范围还限于东部地区内部,一些原来工业基础较为薄弱的城市发展为地方专业化程度较高的城市,如深圳、东莞等地。
4.中国正处于人口红利期,劳动力充裕和总人口抚养比较低有利于经济增长,自80年代起,人口红利已经对中国经济增长有近30年的贡献,但是中国人口素质较低,某些地方政府资金密集型产业投资偏好可能偏离我国的比较优势,这些都不利于收获人口红利。计量模型显示,教育、人口迁移和较低的抚养比对人均GDP都有促进作用,尤其是教育。
基于以上结论,本文主要提出如下政策建议:第一,人口迁移可以促进经济效率提高,因此应该继续促进人口流动;第二,就业同时增长的经济增长应该是我们追求的模式,长三角较低就业增长的事实提醒我们,要重视发挥中国的比较优势——劳动力成本优势,才能有效地收获人口红利;第三,教育对经济效率提高有比较突出的显著正向影响,并且8年人均受教育年限是个重要的分界点,只有超过这点,教育才能对经济发展具有重要的跃升作用,因此应该大力实施九年义务教育,提升人力资本,同时,切实解决流动儿童在迁入地接受义务教育的问题,提升远期人力资本;第四,发挥中西部比较优势,发展相关产业,国家保持对西部较高的财政支出水平,坚持推进“西部大开发战略”,有利于促进中国区域经济和谐发展;第五,一定时期内,中西部实施促进中等城市优先发展的城市化措施将会优于大力发展小城镇的城市化措施。
本文的创新主要在以下三点:
1、首次从地级市尺度系统地对中国人口迁移和区域经济发展差异关系进行了较深入的研究,发现了一些过去在省际人口迁移中所没有发现的人口迁移特征,如省内地市间人口迁移首先向省会城市集中,西部地区人口迁移向省会城市集中度最高,中部次之,而东部地区出现了与省会城市竞争的其他省内人口迁入中心,打破了人口迁移省会城市的“一元化”局面,出现“二元化”甚至”多元化”现象等;
2、建立计量经济学模型,首次从不同人口属性的迁移人口与区域经济发展差异的相互影响及其大小的角度,进行定量分析,如计量分析了24—34岁和24—64岁大学毕业、就业移民的迁出对中西部地区经济发展的影响;讨论随迁未成年人口对迁入地公共服务(公共设施)的需求和供需矛盾产生的原因及解决办法等现实问题等。
3、综合人口迁移与新空间经济学等理论,对区域、城市(都市圈城市)经济发展轨迹进行实证分析和合理解释。如在城市层级上,实证研究制造业中心—外围格局演化,发现整个中西部省会城市几乎都在失去份额,说明中西部地区正全面陷落,陷入“无心化”状态,不仅在区域、省市尺度上,而且在城市尺度上也显示,以东部沿海地区为制造业“中心”而中西部地区为农业“外围”的区域演化格局成立。同时,在东部地区内部,制造业由集中趋于分散,而分散化的范围还局限于东部地区内部,一些原来工业基础较为薄弱的城市发展为地方专业化程度较高的城市。
本文的不足之处包括:
第一,由于人口普查每十年进行一次,难以获得连续的时间序列数据,并且从2000年第五次全国人口普查,才有地级市、县一级迁出地的调查,目前仅有1995-2000年地市间人口迁移横截面数据,也没有关于迁移人口收入的调查,因此难以运用结构方程、面板数据等计量估计方法;
第二,因数据不充分,不能对所有地级市展开研究,某些章节只能以都市圈城市为主进行重点研究。
Joseph E.Stiglitz, Nobel Prize winner in Economics in 2001, said "the two themes that will significantly affect the development of human beings in the 21st century are the urbanization in China and high tech development in the United States." The most massive migration is taking place in China. With the population migration, the urbanization and urban economy are developing rapidly as well. To some extent, China's urban population migration becomes an important component of urbanization in China. Therefore, it is an important theoretical and practical significance to study population migration.
Since the reform and opening up, differences in regional economic development continually increase because of the political system changes and the economic restructuring, which becomes the most important factor that affects the population migration. The studies of the relation between population migration and regional economic development in China are mostly on the province level instead of on the city level. Considering the fact of China's extensive territory, large population and great regional economic disparities in China, it is not accurate enough to study the population migration only on the provincial-level. Moreover, from the perspective of econometrics, the small quantity of the samples in the econometric analysis, which is limited by the province number in China, would affect the reliability of the results. Therefore, this paper studies the population migration and regional economic development differences on the city-level.
Questions addressed in this thesis are the followings: What is the current situation of inter-city population migration? Are there any differences in the population migration between inter-city and inter-province? How do the economic development and population change affect each other? How does the population migration affect the economic development in east China, west China and central China? What is the current situation of and what can be referenced as the urban migration and the economic development in metropolis, the engine of national economic development? Is the "center- periphery" theory in space economics able to explain the population migration in China? How are the macroeconomic policies able to better encourage migration, to better gain the demographic bonus, and to promote the harmonious development of regional economy faster?
This thesis is organized as the following: First, the overall trend of regional distribution of population and economic activities in the last 30 years in China is described. The inter-city population migration is investigated by using the fifth census data in 2000, from which the general rule of population migration in China is investigated. The urban population migration and urban economies development are investigated through the three metropolitan regions (Beijing, Shanghai and Guangdong), which are the most developed areas in China and may be called "central region". The evolution of the manufacturing structure and labor force changes in the "central region" are investigated, and how to gain demographic bonus by population migration are discussed as well.
Secondly, city samples are quantitatively analyzed using econometrics method, and how population migration and the regional economic development may affect each other is investigated extensively. Specifically, how does the situation of focusing on manufacturing while ignoring agriculture affect the regional economy? How does the population migration affect the regional economic development speed? How does the "brain drain" affect the economic development in central and west regions? How does human capita] affect the regional economy? What is the compulsory education requirement for minors who immigrate with their parents, and how should the requirement be satisfied?
Finally, future population migration is predicted according to the analysis in this thesis, and suggestions to the future policy for the questions addressed above are provided.
Conclusions of this thesis are the followings:
1.Inter-city population migration activities are basically in line with some of population migration laws proposed by E.GRavenstein. Distance and differences in economic development affect the number and direction of population migration. Specifically, people tend to move to the area nearby and with higher economic development. In addition to this trend, some unseen migration characteristics are found. Specifically, population migration within a province shows the trend of moving from other cities to the capital city of the province, which is most significant in west China, and less significant in mid China. However, people may move to other cities besides the capital cities of the provinces in east China. Although the entirety of east China has a net intake of population in the inter-provincial migration levels, in the inter-city level within a province the population migration is different. For example, people tend to move from non-metropolitan areas to metropolitan ones. There is difference between central and western regions too. Specifically, in central regions almost all cities except the capitals have net emigration, while there are more cities with net immigration besides the capital cities in western regions. These cities are generally either economic centers or ethnic minority areas, although western regions also have a net inter-province emigration.
2.Based on these available data, an econometric model using city as the basic region unit is established. Based on empirical analysis on the relation between China's population migration and regional economic development, the observations include the following: (1) the initial development conditions of the regional economy affects the rate of population migration, which include initial urban wage level, the amount of FDI contracts, the per capita arable land area, population size, and the proportion of the farming population, among which the wage level is the most important factor. There is a positive correlation between net population migration and regional economic development. Specifically, net immigration benefits the local economic development, while net emigration does the opposite. The average number of years of education of population shows a significant positive impact on per capita GDP of a city, but the total dependency ratio is negatively correlated with per capita GDP, which means that the demographic bonus in China is more beneficial to economic development. Net migration rate is negatively correlated with wage growth. On the other hand, in the central region wage growth rate is higher than the national average, in line with the experience of developed countries, because abundant supply of labor due to net immigration forces wage to decrease. This may explain why wage growth in Pearl River Delta, which has a large net immigration, is behind other metropolises in recent years. The impact of population migration on regional economy in metropolitan areas is different from the non-metropolitan areas and cities. (2) Population emigration could reduce the size of the market in the central and western regions, but public expenditure plays an important role in the maintenance of the market size in western regions. Development of western regions is very important to reduce the differences between eastern and western regions. Brain drain in western and central regions is significant; the negative effects on the economic development in the population emigration regions will reach maximum in two years, and then subsequently decrease. However, the rate of decrease in western regions will be slower than in central regions. 3.The study of economic development and population migration in metropolitan areas shows: (1) the employment growth rate in the Pearl River Delta is much higher than that in the other two metropolitan areas and the same time national average employment growth rate. In 1990s, although the Yangtze River delta and the Pearl River Delta are both immigration centers, the Pearl River Delta has created much more employment opportunities than the Yangtze River Delta, which demonstrates its strong ability to create jobs and economic vitality. The Pearl River Delta's economic growth is accompanied by high employment growth, while economic growth in the Yangtze River Delta has not brought a corresponding high employment growth. In the periods of 1990-2000 and 2000-2005, employment growth in the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta had undergone great changes, resulting in a dramatic change in city rank. Generally speaking, the ranks of Suzhou, Wuxi, Changshu, and Jiaxing in the Yangtze River Delta seem to rise quickly, while the ranks of some cities in the Pearl River Delta drop, which corresponds with workers moving from the Pearl River Delta to the Yangtze River Delta for job opportunities as reported in the news. (2) From the proportion change of employment in the manufacturing industries in metropolises to the nation, the development of the manufacturing industry is relatively stable in metropolitan areas. However, in the decade from 1996 to 2005, the competitiveness of manufacturing industrials in the three major metropolitan areas dramatically changed. In 1996, 2000, 2005, the manufacturing employment increases slightly in Beijing area, while the manufacturing employment doubled from 2000 to 2005 in the Pearl River Delta. This showed that the competitiveness of manufacturing industries in the Pearl River Delta increased quickly after 2000 and manufacturing developed very quickly and absorbed most of labor force. The Yangtze River Delta has the largest share of manufacturing employment. The manufacturing employment in the Yangtze River Delta increased in 2000, but decreased in 2005. Meanwhile, the manufacturing employment in the Pearl River Delta largely increased. At the same time, the manufacturing industries gathered to metropolitan areas faster. Specifically, from 1996 to 2000 the proportion of manufacturing industries in metropolitan areas increased by 2.5%, and from 2000 to 2005 it increased by 5.04%. (3) From 1980s to the late 1990s, the wage level in the Pearl River Delta was very competitive, the Yangtze River Delta was the second most competitive, and Beijing area was least competitive. However, in late 1990s most cities in the Pearl River Delta had relatively low wage growth rates. They were generally lower than the same period in the Yangtze River Delta and Beijing area, and provided a sample of population migration negatively correlated with wage growth rate. (4) Influenced by FDI location choice, the specialized economy and urban economy in the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta developed quickly, while the central and western regions lost their share of the rising industries. Population mainly migrated to the areas where rising industries developed quickest. It is found that the capital cities of the entire central and western provinces lost the manufacturing industries, which may be shown by the studies of the manufacturing "center-periphery" structure in the city-level. The eastern coast regions of China quickly became specialized in manufacturing while central and western regions focused in agriculture. Without outside interference, this structure would be extended. At the same time, among cities in the eastern region, manufacturing industries were more scattered. There had appeared some cities with high level of specialization which originally had weak industrial bases, such as Shenzheng and Dongguan.
4.China is in a demographic bonus period, abundant labor force and relatively low dependent population may contribute to economic growth. Since the 1980s, there has been nearly 30 years when the demographic bonus contributed to the economic development in China. However, the "brain drain" and the fact that some local governments prefer capital-intensive industries, this may deviate from China's comparative advantages, go against gaining demographic bonus. According to econometric model, population migration, low dependency ratio, and particularly education will promote per capita GDP.
Main policy proposals by this thesis are the followings. Firstly, the government should continue to encourage population migration because population migration will promote economic efficiency. Secondly, economic growth accompanied with employment growth should be the pursued mode. The low employment growth in the Yangtze River Delta reminds us that we must give play to China's comparative advantages, including labor cost advantages, in order to effectively gain demographic bonus. Thirdly, education has a significant positive impact on the economic efficiency. The averaged eight-year education is an important demarcation point. When the number of average education years is larger than eight, education becomes an important factor to promote economic development. Therefore, the government should vigorously implement the nine-year compulsory education to enhance human capital, and effectively solve the problem of children that relocate to a new city with their parents, who can not receive a compulsory education. Fourthly, government should exert the comparative advantages in central and western regions to develop relevant industries, and continue development of western regions, while maintaining a relatively high level of public expenditure. Finally, in a certain period of time, it is better to develop large cities in central and western regions first than to develop small towns.
There are three main innovation of this thesis:
1.For the first time, this thesis systematically studied the relation between the population migration and the regional economic development difference in the inter-city level. Some new population migration characteristics are observed, which hasn't been observed in the inter-province population migration. Specifically, population migration inside a province tends to move to the capital city first, which is most significant in western regions, and less significant in central regions. There are other cities where people may move to besides the capital city in the province in eastern regions.
2.This thesis developed an econometric model, and quantitatively analyzed how population migration with different population attributes and regional economic development affect each other for the first time. For example, this thesis quantitatively analyzed the impact of emigration with age between 24 and 34 years old and between 24 and 64 years old on the western and centra] regions. How to effectively solve the problem of children that relocate to a new city with their parents, who can't receive a compulsory education was also discussed in this thesis too. 3.Integrating population migration and the new space economics theory, this thesis analyzed and explained regional and urban (metropolitan areas) economic development. For example, it is found that the almost all capital cities of the entire central and western provinces are losing the manufacturing share, which may be shown by the studies of the manufacturing "center-periphery" structure in the city-level. Not only at regional and provincial scale, but also at city scale, the eastern coast regions of China are quickly becoming specialized in manufacturing while central and western regions are focusing in agriculture. At the same time, among cities in the eastern region, manufacturing industries are more scattered. There have appeared some cities with high level of specialization which originally had weak industrial bases before.
There are also some shortages of this thesis.
Firstly, it was difficult to apply structure equation and panel measurement methods for the analysis.Specifically, it was difficult to get continuous time series data because the census is conductedevery ten years. Moreover, there were no city emigration data until the fifth national census in2000. Currently, the only available cross-section inter-city data were between 1995 and 2000, andthere was no income survey on migration population.
Secondly, the information available was not sufficient to analyze all cities. Only metropolitan areawas studied in some chapters.
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