中国金融对产业结构升级调整的影响研究
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摘要
本文围绕金融如何对产业结构升级调整产生影响以及金融对我国产业结构升级调整的影响究竟如何这一主题,运用产业结构理论、金融发展理论、投资理论、资本理论等多学科理论和计量经济学方法,借鉴国外产业结构升级调整的金融支持经验,结合我国金融对产业结构升级调整的影响现状,深入研究了金融对产业结构升级调整的影响机制,并分别从不同的金融形式分析了金融对产业结构升级调整的作用机制和特点,实证检验了我国金融对产业结构升级调整的影响。通过分析得到以下主要结论:
金融活动主要通过资本的形成机制、导向机制、信用催化机制、产融结合机制、信息揭示机制以及风险管理机制,改变资本在不同产业部门的供给水平和配置结构,进而影响生产要素的分配,推动产业结构的升级调整。即金融→影响储蓄、投资→影响资金的流量和存量变化→影响生产要素的分配→影响产业资本的变化→影响产业结构的升级调整。
我国金融发展与产业结构升级调整之间存在着显著的正相关关系。其中,商业银行由于在我国金融体系中占据主导地位,对我国产业结构升级调整的影响最大,其主要通过信贷活动筹集和分配资金、收集与生产对产业结构变动有关的信息、对中小企业提供技术创新融资支持等机制来对产业结构的升级调整实施影响。本文通过建立动态面板模型,检验得出商业银行对我国中西部欠发达地区的产业结构升级调整的影响较东部发达地区的影响大。资本市场对产业结构升级调整的影响主要通过证券市场的一级市场增量调节和二级市场存量调节来实施,具体通过核心企业的培养和主导产业的选择来实现。由于资本市场在我国发展时间不长、规模偏小,所以其对我国产业结构升级调整的影响是喜忧参半:一方面,资本市场对第二产业特别是制造业的影响较大,有力地支持了资本、技术密集型中间生产部门的发展,提升了第二产业的高级化程度;通过兼并重组等存量调整方式,扩大了第二产业内部的机械设备、石油化工和电子行业等制造业的规模,提升了这些行业的市场竞争力。另一方面,由于现有资本市场总体规模太小,不能满足我国现阶段产业结构调整的资金需要;上市公司的产业结构分布与我国产业结构调整方向不太一致。政策性金融通过对商业性金融进行诱导和补充,对一些影响产业结构顺利升级调整的基础设施、基础产业和重点产业等关键性产业提供长期资金支持,从而影响产业结构的升级调整,这种金融形式对实施经济赶超战略的国家意义较大。我国政策性金融在总体上对产业结构的升级调整起着积极的支持作用,二者之间在经验上也表现出长期的稳定关系,但是实证检验却得到产业结构升级调整是政策性金融的格兰杰原因,表明我国的政策性金融对产业结构升级调整的影响表现为一种“需求带动型”模式,缺乏主动性。
高技术产业对于产业结构的升级调整意义重大,其主要通过形成新的主导产业、改造传统产业、利用技术的后发优势实现跨越式的产业发展来对产业结构升级调整产生影响。由于高技术产业在不同成长期的融资需求特点和不同金融形式对其融资供给的特性不同,需要金融体系的全面配合才能有效地促进高技术产业的发展。我国目前缺乏支持高技术产业发展的资本市场和成熟的风险投资体系,对高技术产业发展的资金支持更多地还是依靠财政拨款和银行贷款来完成。从金融的供给角度看,我国的银行系统客观具有充足的资金供给能力,但需要通过融资机制的改革才能把潜在的资金存量优势转化为实际的有效供给。实证检验结果表明,从资金的贡献来看,高技术产业的增长主要是通过财政科技拨款和银行科技贷款来实现,资本市场的融资不仅对高技术产业的发展没有正向的促进作用,反而具有负向的阻碍作用;长期中,只有银行贷款与高技术产业的发展具有稳定的协整关系。
本文通过研究金融对产业结构升级调整的影响机制,评价了我国金融对产业结构升级调整的影响作用及存在的不足,不仅符合我国当前国民经济运行的实际情况,具有较强的现实意义,而且对于从产业结构升级调整的角度来理解金融与经济发展的关系也有一定的理论价值。
This dissertation focus on how to finance influence the industrial structure upgrading and adjustment, as well as what finance influence the industrial structure upgrading and adjustment in China. Industry structure theory, finance development theory, investment theory, capital theory and econometric methods are used in this dissetation. And how finance affects industrial structure upgrading and adjustment is deeply studied by the way of learning from experience of other countries and combining with our nation’s actual situation. And how different kinds of financial way affect the industrial structure upgrading and adjustment is discussed in this dissertation. And then the real situation of our nation’s industrial structure upgrading and adjustment affected by finance is evaluated too. Through analysis, the main conclusions are the following:
The capital is shifted and allocated in different industrial sectors through financial activities, which is affected by capital formation, capital shifting, credit creation, industry and finance combination, information revealing and risk management mechanism. Because the production factors are mainly influenced by capital, the industrial structure upgrading and adjustment is promoted and affected by this way. The way is that finance affects saving and investment which affects the flow and stock changes of capital which affects the allocation of production factors which affects industrial capital changes which influences the industrial structure finally.
The relationship between financial development and industrial structure upgrading and adjustment in China is significantly positive. Firstly, our industrial structure upgrading and adjustment is influenced by commercial banks greatly because of its dominant position in our nation’s financial system. The ways of commercial banks affecting industrial structure are raising and allocating funds through credit activities, collecting and producing information about industrial structure changes and supporting SMEs technology innovation. Especially the effect in underdeveloped areas is more significant than that in developed areas in our nation by using dynamic panel model. Secondly, the effect of capital market on industrial structure upgrading and adjustment are mainly through capital stock changes in the first market and capital flow changes in the second market accordingly. Of course, developing core enterprises and choosing main industries are more important. Because our capital market is not mature and small, its effect on industrial structure upgrading and adjustment are not obvious. On the one hand, it affect the second industry especially the manufacturing sector greatly which supports the capital and technology intensive production sectors which is mainly middle production sectors. And by this the second industrial structure is advanced greatly. Particularly through mergers and reorganization stock adjustment, the size of the second industry sectors is expanded sharply such as the machinery and equipment industry, the petrochemical industry and the electronics industry and the like. Through this, the competitiveness of these sectors is enhanced positively. On the other hand, however, the existing capital market is too small overall size. It can not satisfy the capital needs of the industrial structure upgrading and adjustment in our nation at this stage. And the distribution structure of our listed companies is not accordance with the direction of our industrial structure changes. Political finance affects some key industry just like infrastructure, basic industries and important industries which are closely connected with industrial structure upgrading and adjustment by inducing and complementing commercial banks and providing long-term capital support. It is very significant in those nations which make catching-up plans realize industrial structure upgrading and adjustment fast. However, empirical analysis shows that the impact of industrial structure upgrading and adjustment is more passive adaptation by our political finance which is lack of initiative because of the imperfect decision-making mechanism.
High-tech industries have greatly significant impact on industrial structure upgrading and adjustment, through creating new leading industries, the transformation of traditional industries and achieving industry leapfrog development. As there are different characteristics of financing needs in the growing stages of high-tech industry and different preference of different kinds of financial methods, high-tech industry can be promoted by all kinds of financial methods accordingly. Our high-tech industry development is lack of supporting by capital market and mature venture capital. It is mainly provided funds by budget allocations and bank loans. From the financial supply view, banks’potential supply of adequate funding should be translated into actual supply ability through the reform of financing mechanism. Empirical tests show that the growth of high-tech industries is contributed by financial technology funds and banking technology loans from the capital contribution. Capital markets not only have not positive impact on high-tech industries but also have a negative impact on high-tech industries in China. In the long term, there is only a cointegration relationship between bank loans and the development of high-tech industries.
So it is very necessary that study about the mechanism or way how finance affect industrial structure upgrading and adjustment and evaluate our nation’s real situation accordingly, which is not only with strong practical significance in our nation, but also with certain theory value about understanding the relationship between finance and economic development from the industrial structure aspect.
金融活动主要通过资本的形成机制、导向机制、信用催化机制、产融结合机制、信息揭示机制以及风险管理机制,改变资本在不同产业部门的供给水平和配置结构,进而影响生产要素的分配,推动产业结构的升级调整。即金融→影响储蓄、投资→影响资金的流量和存量变化→影响生产要素的分配→影响产业资本的变化→影响产业结构的升级调整。
我国金融发展与产业结构升级调整之间存在着显著的正相关关系。其中,商业银行由于在我国金融体系中占据主导地位,对我国产业结构升级调整的影响最大,其主要通过信贷活动筹集和分配资金、收集与生产对产业结构变动有关的信息、对中小企业提供技术创新融资支持等机制来对产业结构的升级调整实施影响。本文通过建立动态面板模型,检验得出商业银行对我国中西部欠发达地区的产业结构升级调整的影响较东部发达地区的影响大。资本市场对产业结构升级调整的影响主要通过证券市场的一级市场增量调节和二级市场存量调节来实施,具体通过核心企业的培养和主导产业的选择来实现。由于资本市场在我国发展时间不长、规模偏小,所以其对我国产业结构升级调整的影响是喜忧参半:一方面,资本市场对第二产业特别是制造业的影响较大,有力地支持了资本、技术密集型中间生产部门的发展,提升了第二产业的高级化程度;通过兼并重组等存量调整方式,扩大了第二产业内部的机械设备、石油化工和电子行业等制造业的规模,提升了这些行业的市场竞争力。另一方面,由于现有资本市场总体规模太小,不能满足我国现阶段产业结构调整的资金需要;上市公司的产业结构分布与我国产业结构调整方向不太一致。政策性金融通过对商业性金融进行诱导和补充,对一些影响产业结构顺利升级调整的基础设施、基础产业和重点产业等关键性产业提供长期资金支持,从而影响产业结构的升级调整,这种金融形式对实施经济赶超战略的国家意义较大。我国政策性金融在总体上对产业结构的升级调整起着积极的支持作用,二者之间在经验上也表现出长期的稳定关系,但是实证检验却得到产业结构升级调整是政策性金融的格兰杰原因,表明我国的政策性金融对产业结构升级调整的影响表现为一种“需求带动型”模式,缺乏主动性。
高技术产业对于产业结构的升级调整意义重大,其主要通过形成新的主导产业、改造传统产业、利用技术的后发优势实现跨越式的产业发展来对产业结构升级调整产生影响。由于高技术产业在不同成长期的融资需求特点和不同金融形式对其融资供给的特性不同,需要金融体系的全面配合才能有效地促进高技术产业的发展。我国目前缺乏支持高技术产业发展的资本市场和成熟的风险投资体系,对高技术产业发展的资金支持更多地还是依靠财政拨款和银行贷款来完成。从金融的供给角度看,我国的银行系统客观具有充足的资金供给能力,但需要通过融资机制的改革才能把潜在的资金存量优势转化为实际的有效供给。实证检验结果表明,从资金的贡献来看,高技术产业的增长主要是通过财政科技拨款和银行科技贷款来实现,资本市场的融资不仅对高技术产业的发展没有正向的促进作用,反而具有负向的阻碍作用;长期中,只有银行贷款与高技术产业的发展具有稳定的协整关系。
本文通过研究金融对产业结构升级调整的影响机制,评价了我国金融对产业结构升级调整的影响作用及存在的不足,不仅符合我国当前国民经济运行的实际情况,具有较强的现实意义,而且对于从产业结构升级调整的角度来理解金融与经济发展的关系也有一定的理论价值。
This dissertation focus on how to finance influence the industrial structure upgrading and adjustment, as well as what finance influence the industrial structure upgrading and adjustment in China. Industry structure theory, finance development theory, investment theory, capital theory and econometric methods are used in this dissetation. And how finance affects industrial structure upgrading and adjustment is deeply studied by the way of learning from experience of other countries and combining with our nation’s actual situation. And how different kinds of financial way affect the industrial structure upgrading and adjustment is discussed in this dissertation. And then the real situation of our nation’s industrial structure upgrading and adjustment affected by finance is evaluated too. Through analysis, the main conclusions are the following:
The capital is shifted and allocated in different industrial sectors through financial activities, which is affected by capital formation, capital shifting, credit creation, industry and finance combination, information revealing and risk management mechanism. Because the production factors are mainly influenced by capital, the industrial structure upgrading and adjustment is promoted and affected by this way. The way is that finance affects saving and investment which affects the flow and stock changes of capital which affects the allocation of production factors which affects industrial capital changes which influences the industrial structure finally.
The relationship between financial development and industrial structure upgrading and adjustment in China is significantly positive. Firstly, our industrial structure upgrading and adjustment is influenced by commercial banks greatly because of its dominant position in our nation’s financial system. The ways of commercial banks affecting industrial structure are raising and allocating funds through credit activities, collecting and producing information about industrial structure changes and supporting SMEs technology innovation. Especially the effect in underdeveloped areas is more significant than that in developed areas in our nation by using dynamic panel model. Secondly, the effect of capital market on industrial structure upgrading and adjustment are mainly through capital stock changes in the first market and capital flow changes in the second market accordingly. Of course, developing core enterprises and choosing main industries are more important. Because our capital market is not mature and small, its effect on industrial structure upgrading and adjustment are not obvious. On the one hand, it affect the second industry especially the manufacturing sector greatly which supports the capital and technology intensive production sectors which is mainly middle production sectors. And by this the second industrial structure is advanced greatly. Particularly through mergers and reorganization stock adjustment, the size of the second industry sectors is expanded sharply such as the machinery and equipment industry, the petrochemical industry and the electronics industry and the like. Through this, the competitiveness of these sectors is enhanced positively. On the other hand, however, the existing capital market is too small overall size. It can not satisfy the capital needs of the industrial structure upgrading and adjustment in our nation at this stage. And the distribution structure of our listed companies is not accordance with the direction of our industrial structure changes. Political finance affects some key industry just like infrastructure, basic industries and important industries which are closely connected with industrial structure upgrading and adjustment by inducing and complementing commercial banks and providing long-term capital support. It is very significant in those nations which make catching-up plans realize industrial structure upgrading and adjustment fast. However, empirical analysis shows that the impact of industrial structure upgrading and adjustment is more passive adaptation by our political finance which is lack of initiative because of the imperfect decision-making mechanism.
High-tech industries have greatly significant impact on industrial structure upgrading and adjustment, through creating new leading industries, the transformation of traditional industries and achieving industry leapfrog development. As there are different characteristics of financing needs in the growing stages of high-tech industry and different preference of different kinds of financial methods, high-tech industry can be promoted by all kinds of financial methods accordingly. Our high-tech industry development is lack of supporting by capital market and mature venture capital. It is mainly provided funds by budget allocations and bank loans. From the financial supply view, banks’potential supply of adequate funding should be translated into actual supply ability through the reform of financing mechanism. Empirical tests show that the growth of high-tech industries is contributed by financial technology funds and banking technology loans from the capital contribution. Capital markets not only have not positive impact on high-tech industries but also have a negative impact on high-tech industries in China. In the long term, there is only a cointegration relationship between bank loans and the development of high-tech industries.
So it is very necessary that study about the mechanism or way how finance affect industrial structure upgrading and adjustment and evaluate our nation’s real situation accordingly, which is not only with strong practical significance in our nation, but also with certain theory value about understanding the relationship between finance and economic development from the industrial structure aspect.
引文
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11本部分的方法参考了王少平,封福育.外商直接投资对中国贸易的效益与区域差异:基于动态面板模型数据的分析,世界经济,2006(6)第25~28页.
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26本部分内容借鉴了龚明华著,《发展中国经济金融制度与银行体系研究》,中国人民大学出版社2004年版第94~95页.
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28参考了龚明华著:《发展中经济金融制度与银行体系研究》,中国人民大学出版社2004年版,第102~104页。
29陈元,发挥开发性金融作用促进中国经济社会可持续发展,《管理世界》,2004年第7期,第1~5页
37张金锁,康凯:《区域经济学》,天津大学出版社2003版第59页。
38吴晓波,裴珍珍,“高技术产业与传统产业协同发展的战略模式及其实现途径”,《科技进步与对策》2006年第1期,第50页。
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6马克思,资本论,第2卷,人民出版社,1974年版,第393页
7 W.罗斯托,《从起飞进入持续增长的经济学》,四川人民出版社,1998年版,第9页。
8该部分内容参考了杨琳著:《金融发展与实体经济的发展》,中国金融出版社2002年版,第97页~101页。
11本部分的方法参考了王少平,封福育.外商直接投资对中国贸易的效益与区域差异:基于动态面板模型数据的分析,世界经济,2006(6)第25~28页.
13罗美娟:《证券市场与产业成长》,商务印书馆,2001年版第91页。
14柳卸林:《技术创新经济学》,中国经济出版社1993年版第69页。
15约翰·格利、爱德华·肖:《金融理论中的货币》,上海三联书店1988年版,第12页。
16约翰·格利、爱德华·肖:《金融理论中的货币》,上海三联书店1988年版,第44页。
17“供给引导”见《西方发展经济学文献选读》,杨敬年编,南开大学出版社1995年版,第307页。
18 Asli Demirguc-Kunt and Vojislav Maksimovic.Stock Markt Development and Firm Financing Choice.World Bank.Policy Research Working Paper,1995:.20~35.
19罗美娟,《证券市场与产业成长》,商务印书馆,2001年版第135页。
22陈宝明,《资本市场与产业结构调整》,中国市场出版社,2008年版,第160页。
23上海证券交易所,《市场统计月报》,2006年12月
24“中国资本驱动下的四个重点行业新趋势综述”,《证券日报》2007年9月30日
25刘树成,《现代经济辞典》,江苏人民出版社2005年版第1201页。
26本部分内容借鉴了龚明华著,《发展中国经济金融制度与银行体系研究》,中国人民大学出版社2004年版第94~95页.
27《金融发展理论的新进展》,国家开发银行课题组,《金融时报》2006年5月15日第七版.
28参考了龚明华著:《发展中经济金融制度与银行体系研究》,中国人民大学出版社2004年版,第102~104页。
29陈元,发挥开发性金融作用促进中国经济社会可持续发展,《管理世界》,2004年第7期,第1~5页
37张金锁,康凯:《区域经济学》,天津大学出版社2003版第59页。
38吴晓波,裴珍珍,“高技术产业与传统产业协同发展的战略模式及其实现途径”,《科技进步与对策》2006年第1期,第50页。
39巴曙松,“中国高新技术产业发展的金融支持”,《城市金融论坛》2000年第1期,第17~18页。
43张勇,“我国风险投资机构的形式选择与对策”,《投资研究》2003年第7期,第28~31页。
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