中国服务业FDI的技术溢出研究
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摘要
很多发展中国家努力吸引外商直接投资(FDI),其主要原因就是希望利用FDI的技术溢出促进本国技术进步。制造业FDI的技术溢出在国内外已经得到了广泛深入研究。随着国际分工的日益深化、服务业占据世界经济主体和全球FDI转向服务业,如何利用服务业FDI的溢出效应和对服务业FDI的技术溢出进行专门研究显得非常必要。因此,本文针对服务业FDI的技术溢出进行了系统的理论和实证研究。
在理论研究部分,本文按照FDI技术溢出的方式,把服务业FDI的技术溢出分为行业内溢出和行业间溢出,从溢出渠道和溢出效应两方面分别对服务业FDI的行业内溢出效应和行业间溢出效应的机理,以及对服务业FDI技术溢出效应大小的影响因素进行了分析。第一,服务业FDI可通过竞争效应、示范和传染效应、人员培训和流动效应等渠道对东道国服务业产生产业内溢出效应,具体而言,可降低东道国本地市场的服务价格、提高东道国本地服务提供的质量、增加东道国服务提供的种类、优化行业市场结构和提高企业经营效率、给本地服务提供商的管理,营销,组织专门知识和最佳实践经验等带来软技术的直接溢出。第二,服务业FDI还可前向关联、示范效应、人员培训和流动效应等渠道对东道国制造业产生产业内溢出效应,一方面,通过服务业FDI促进东道国服务业发展的间接效应,改善作为制造业投入要素之一的生产者服务,间接促进下游制造业效率提升；另一方面,服务业FDI有利于制造业企业获得“软技术”(如管理、组织、或营销知识和技术技能等)溢出。第三,法制水平、劳动力市场化程度、人力资本存量、服务业的发展水平等区域特征因素会影响服务业FDI技术溢出效应的大小。
在理论分析的基础上,本文根据中国目前的现实情况,提出了关于服务业FDI技术溢出效应、技术溢出途径和影响因素的四个假说。在实证研究部分,本文利用向量误差修正模型和面板数据计量回归方法,通过对中国全要素生产率的时间序列数据以及服务业、制造业和16省区市的面板数据进行计量分析,得到以下结论：第一,服务业FDI对中国总体经济的技术进步存在正向促进作用。第二,服务业FDI存在行业内溢出效应,能通过促进服务业效率改善、影响服务业的技术改进和创新来促进服务业技术水平的增长。第三,服务业FDI通过前向关联和直接知识溢出等途径,对中国制造业产生正向的行业间溢出效应。第四,地区法治水平、劳动力市场化程度、服务业发展水平和人力资本存量等地区特征影响服务业FDI技术溢出效应的大小。具体来说,法制水平越高、劳动力市场化程度越高、服务业发展水平越好的地区,服务业FDI的技术溢出效应越大。人力资本水平与服务业FDI的技术溢出效应正相关,但只有东部地区才显著。这说明服务业FDI的技术溢出效应存在人力资本的门槛效应。即人力资本存量对服务业FDI的技术效应的促进作用只有在经济发展到一定水平时,其作用才会显著为正。
最后,针对论文的研究结论提出相关政策建议。
Many developing countries strive to absorb foreign direct investment (FDI) and the main reason for this is to take advantage of FDI technology spillovers. In contrast to earlier literature, which focused on technology spillovers from Manufacturing FDI, this study aims to investigate technology spillovers from services FDI.
In the theoretical Part, this dissertation analyses the mechanism of technology spillovers through services FDI. Firstly, this dissertation analyses the channels and effects of intra-industry spillovers from services FDI. Specifically, FDI in services sectors may increase competition in local markets and result in services price reductions, lead to improvements in services quality, result in a greater variety of services being provided, result in leaking of managerial, marketing, and organizational know-how and best practices from foreign to domestic providers, which are likely to stimulate productivity growth within the services sector. Secondly, this dissertation analyses the channels and effects of inter-industry spillovers from services FDI. Specifically, the aforementioned FDI induced improvements in services sectors benefit the productivity growth of downstream manufacturing users. Services FDI can also benefit manufacturing plants through spillovers of'soft technology' linked to managerial, organizational, or marketing know-how and technical skills. Thirdly, this dissertation analyses the factors of technology spillovers from services FDI. Secondly, the level of rule of law, the degree of labor market liberalization, human capital, and the level of service development will affect the technology spillovers effects.
Based on theoretical analysis and the present condition in China, this study puts forward four hypothesizes about technology from spillovers service FDI. In the empirical Part, based on time-series data of total factor productivity (TFP), industry-level and region level panel data from China, this dissertation tests for these hypothesizes and have the following conclusions. Firstly, we find there are long-term and positive relationship between service FDI and TFP growth. Secondly, the result indicates that FDI in services sectors leads to intra-industry spillovers, and can stimulate productivity growth within the services sector. Thirdly, the data also show that FDI in services sectors leads to inter-industry spillovers, that is, can facilitate productivity growth of down-stream manufacturing industry. Fourthly, we find that the level of rule of law, the degree of labor market liberalization, human capital, and the level of service development will really affect the spillovers effects from service FDI. Specifically, regions will get more benefits from service FDI technology spillovers, which the level of rule of law is, the degree of labor market liberalization and the level of service development are better. In addition, human capital has positive relationship with the spillovers effects from service FDI, but only significant in eastern region, which means technology spillovers through service FDI have threshold effect of human capital. Only after a certain level of economic development, human capital will facilitate the spillovers effects.
In the end, the dissertation presents the conclusions and brings forward some proposals for Chinese government for reference.
在理论研究部分,本文按照FDI技术溢出的方式,把服务业FDI的技术溢出分为行业内溢出和行业间溢出,从溢出渠道和溢出效应两方面分别对服务业FDI的行业内溢出效应和行业间溢出效应的机理,以及对服务业FDI技术溢出效应大小的影响因素进行了分析。第一,服务业FDI可通过竞争效应、示范和传染效应、人员培训和流动效应等渠道对东道国服务业产生产业内溢出效应,具体而言,可降低东道国本地市场的服务价格、提高东道国本地服务提供的质量、增加东道国服务提供的种类、优化行业市场结构和提高企业经营效率、给本地服务提供商的管理,营销,组织专门知识和最佳实践经验等带来软技术的直接溢出。第二,服务业FDI还可前向关联、示范效应、人员培训和流动效应等渠道对东道国制造业产生产业内溢出效应,一方面,通过服务业FDI促进东道国服务业发展的间接效应,改善作为制造业投入要素之一的生产者服务,间接促进下游制造业效率提升；另一方面,服务业FDI有利于制造业企业获得“软技术”(如管理、组织、或营销知识和技术技能等)溢出。第三,法制水平、劳动力市场化程度、人力资本存量、服务业的发展水平等区域特征因素会影响服务业FDI技术溢出效应的大小。
在理论分析的基础上,本文根据中国目前的现实情况,提出了关于服务业FDI技术溢出效应、技术溢出途径和影响因素的四个假说。在实证研究部分,本文利用向量误差修正模型和面板数据计量回归方法,通过对中国全要素生产率的时间序列数据以及服务业、制造业和16省区市的面板数据进行计量分析,得到以下结论：第一,服务业FDI对中国总体经济的技术进步存在正向促进作用。第二,服务业FDI存在行业内溢出效应,能通过促进服务业效率改善、影响服务业的技术改进和创新来促进服务业技术水平的增长。第三,服务业FDI通过前向关联和直接知识溢出等途径,对中国制造业产生正向的行业间溢出效应。第四,地区法治水平、劳动力市场化程度、服务业发展水平和人力资本存量等地区特征影响服务业FDI技术溢出效应的大小。具体来说,法制水平越高、劳动力市场化程度越高、服务业发展水平越好的地区,服务业FDI的技术溢出效应越大。人力资本水平与服务业FDI的技术溢出效应正相关,但只有东部地区才显著。这说明服务业FDI的技术溢出效应存在人力资本的门槛效应。即人力资本存量对服务业FDI的技术效应的促进作用只有在经济发展到一定水平时,其作用才会显著为正。
最后,针对论文的研究结论提出相关政策建议。
Many developing countries strive to absorb foreign direct investment (FDI) and the main reason for this is to take advantage of FDI technology spillovers. In contrast to earlier literature, which focused on technology spillovers from Manufacturing FDI, this study aims to investigate technology spillovers from services FDI.
In the theoretical Part, this dissertation analyses the mechanism of technology spillovers through services FDI. Firstly, this dissertation analyses the channels and effects of intra-industry spillovers from services FDI. Specifically, FDI in services sectors may increase competition in local markets and result in services price reductions, lead to improvements in services quality, result in a greater variety of services being provided, result in leaking of managerial, marketing, and organizational know-how and best practices from foreign to domestic providers, which are likely to stimulate productivity growth within the services sector. Secondly, this dissertation analyses the channels and effects of inter-industry spillovers from services FDI. Specifically, the aforementioned FDI induced improvements in services sectors benefit the productivity growth of downstream manufacturing users. Services FDI can also benefit manufacturing plants through spillovers of'soft technology' linked to managerial, organizational, or marketing know-how and technical skills. Thirdly, this dissertation analyses the factors of technology spillovers from services FDI. Secondly, the level of rule of law, the degree of labor market liberalization, human capital, and the level of service development will affect the technology spillovers effects.
Based on theoretical analysis and the present condition in China, this study puts forward four hypothesizes about technology from spillovers service FDI. In the empirical Part, based on time-series data of total factor productivity (TFP), industry-level and region level panel data from China, this dissertation tests for these hypothesizes and have the following conclusions. Firstly, we find there are long-term and positive relationship between service FDI and TFP growth. Secondly, the result indicates that FDI in services sectors leads to intra-industry spillovers, and can stimulate productivity growth within the services sector. Thirdly, the data also show that FDI in services sectors leads to inter-industry spillovers, that is, can facilitate productivity growth of down-stream manufacturing industry. Fourthly, we find that the level of rule of law, the degree of labor market liberalization, human capital, and the level of service development will really affect the spillovers effects from service FDI. Specifically, regions will get more benefits from service FDI technology spillovers, which the level of rule of law is, the degree of labor market liberalization and the level of service development are better. In addition, human capital has positive relationship with the spillovers effects from service FDI, but only significant in eastern region, which means technology spillovers through service FDI have threshold effect of human capital. Only after a certain level of economic development, human capital will facilitate the spillovers effects.
In the end, the dissertation presents the conclusions and brings forward some proposals for Chinese government for reference.
引文
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