制造业区位分布演变：基于1998-2008年微观企业数据的分析
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摘要
本文以最新解密的1998-2007年我国规模以上工业企业微观数据库为依据,采用产业集中率、基尼系数等多指标,结合多区域层次和多行业层次,全面、深入地描述制造业的区位分布。本文发现从大的区域范围看,尽管在2004年前后制造业在大地理范围的集聚已经发生逆转,沿海地区的产业集聚特征仍较明显。从县级区域层面看,制造业各行业的集聚水平高,而县级经济体的专业化趋势也是相当明显。本文将县级区域层面的结论与同类的现有研究结论进行比较,并解释结果的差异,从而为描述我国制造业区位分布演变提供一个统一的结论。此外,本文从这些观察事实出发,深入解释了制造业区位分布与地区间收入差距、沿海地区土地稀缺等之间的关系,并对消除目前阶段制造业产能过剩提供了新的见解。
Based on China's lately-decrypted micro-scale industrial enterprise database from 1998 to 2007, this paper gives a comprehensive, in-depth description of the geographical distribution of manufacturing with multi-indicators like industrial concentration ratio, Gini coefficient and combinations of multi-regional levels and multi-industrial levels. Although the manufacturing sector's gathering tendency reversed in 2004 or so, industrial agglomeration characteristics in coastal areas were still evident. In the county level, manufacturing sectors boast high levels of concentration, while specialization trend of county-level economies is quite obvious. Comparison the conclusion in this paper with findings in similar research in the county level and explanation of differences between the results, this paper provides a unified conclusion on the evolution of the manufacturing location. In addition, based on these observations, this paper explains the relationship between manufacturing distribution and the income gap between regions, and that between manufacturing distribution and land scarcity in coastal areas. Finally, new insights are provided in this paper concerning the elimination of manufacturing overcapacity at this stage.
Based on China's lately-decrypted micro-scale industrial enterprise database from 1998 to 2007, this paper gives a comprehensive, in-depth description of the geographical distribution of manufacturing with multi-indicators like industrial concentration ratio, Gini coefficient and combinations of multi-regional levels and multi-industrial levels. Although the manufacturing sector's gathering tendency reversed in 2004 or so, industrial agglomeration characteristics in coastal areas were still evident. In the county level, manufacturing sectors boast high levels of concentration, while specialization trend of county-level economies is quite obvious. Comparison the conclusion in this paper with findings in similar research in the county level and explanation of differences between the results, this paper provides a unified conclusion on the evolution of the manufacturing location. In addition, based on these observations, this paper explains the relationship between manufacturing distribution and the income gap between regions, and that between manufacturing distribution and land scarcity in coastal areas. Finally, new insights are provided in this paper concerning the elimination of manufacturing overcapacity at this stage.
引文
[1]Bai, Chong-En, Du, Yingjuan, Tao, Zhigang and Tong Sarah Y..2003. Protectionism and Regional Specialization: Evidence from China's Industries. The University of Hong Kong Mimeo
[2]Brqlharta, Marius, and Traeger Rolf.2005. An Account of Geographic Concentration Patterns in Europe [J]. Regional Science and Urban Economics 35: 597-624.
[3]Combes, Pierre, Philippe, Mayer, Thierry and Jacques Francois Thisse.2008. Economic Geography: the Integration of Regions and Nations [M]. Princeton University Press, Princeton and Oxford.
[4]Demurger Sylvie.2001. Infrastructure Development and Economic Growth: An Explanation for Regional Disparities in China? Journal of Comparative Economics 29:95-117.
[5]Devereuxa, Michael, P., Griffith, Rachel and Simpson Helen.2004. The Geographic Distribution of Production Activity in the UK [J]. Regional Science and Urban Economics 34:533-564.
[6]Duranton, Gilles and Overman Henry G..2005. Testing for Localization Using Micro-Geographic Data [J]. Review of Economic Studies 72:1077-1106.
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[8]Fujita, M., Krugman, P. and Venables, A.J..1999. The Spatial Economy: Cities, Regions, and International Trade [M]. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.
[9]Harris, C..1954. The market as a factor in the localization of industry in the United States [J]. Annals of the Association of American Geographers 64:315-348.
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[15]Lu, J. Y. and Tao Z.G..2009. Trends and Determinants of China's industrial agglomeration Journal of Urban Economics 65:167-180.
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[18]Samuelson, Paul A..1954. The transfer problem and transport costs Ⅱ: Analysis of trade impediments [J]. Economic Journal 64:264-289.
[19]白重恩、杜颖娟、陶志刚和仝月婷.地方保护主义及产业地区集中度的决定因素和变动趋势[J].经济研究2004(4)：29-40
[20]陈良文、杨开忠、吴姣.中国城市体系演化的实证研究[J].区域经济研究2007(1)：81-88
[21]范剑勇.市场一体化、地区专业化与产业集聚趋势----兼谈对地区差距的影响[J].中国社会科学2004(6)：39-51
[22]范剑勇.产业结构失衡、空间集聚与中国地区差距变化[J].上海经济研究2008(2)：3-13
[23]范剑勇、高人元和张雁.空间效率与区域协调发展战略选择[J].世界经济2010(2)：104-119
[24]范剑勇、李方文.产业集聚的证据与影响：基于国内实证文献的综述复旦大学经济学院工作论文2010
[25]范剑勇、邵挺.房地产价格、差异化产品区位分布与城市结构体系失衡：基于Thunen-Krugman-Helpman模型的估计 复旦大学经济学院工作论文 2010
[26]范剑勇、张雁.经济地理与地区间工资差异[J].经济研究2009(8)：73-84
[27]范剑勇、朱国林.中国地区差距演变及其结构分解[J].管理世界2002(7)：37-44
[28]国家信息中心.中国区域间投入产出表[M]北京：社会科学文献出版社2005：423
[29]洪兴建.基于S基尼系数的中国行业工资差距分析[J].统计研究2010,27(5)：18-24
[30]江飞涛.正确认识产能过剩问题[J].中国经贸导刊2010(20)：33-34
[31]姜江.我国部分新兴产业存在“潜在产能过剩”问题[J].宏观经济管理 2010(10)：22-23
[32]刘修岩、贺小海和殷醒民.市场潜能与地区工资差距：基于中国地级面板数据的实证研究[J]管理世界2007(9)：48-55
[33]刘修岩、殷醒民.空间外部性与地区工资差异：基于动态面板数据的实证研究[J].经济学(季刊)2008,8(1)：77-98
[34]路江涌、陶志刚.中国制造业区域聚集及国际比较[J]. 2006(3)：103-114
[35]路江涌、陶志刚.我国制造业区域集聚程度决定因素的研究[J].经济学(季刊)2007,6(3)：801-816
[36]路江涌、陶志刚.区域专业化分工与区域间行业同构[J].经济学报2007,2(1)：29-52
[37]罗勇、曹丽莉.中国制造业集聚程度变动趋势实证研究[J].经济研究2005(8)：106-127
[38]麦肯锡.迎接中国十亿城市大军[R/OL].麦肯锡全球研究院2008-03-28
[39]王非暗、王珏、唐韵和范剑勇.制造业扩散的时刻是否已经到来?[J].浙江社会科学2010(9)：2-10
[40]王志伟.产品过剩、产能过剩与经济结构调整[J].广东商学院学报2010(5)：4-9
[41]许征、陈钊和陆铭.中国城市体系的“中心-外围”模式[J].世界经济2010(7)：144-160
[42]周劲、付保宗.产能过剩中的政府“补位”与“退位-宏观调控[J].中国经贸导刊2010(18)：10-12
[2]Brqlharta, Marius, and Traeger Rolf.2005. An Account of Geographic Concentration Patterns in Europe [J]. Regional Science and Urban Economics 35: 597-624.
[3]Combes, Pierre, Philippe, Mayer, Thierry and Jacques Francois Thisse.2008. Economic Geography: the Integration of Regions and Nations [M]. Princeton University Press, Princeton and Oxford.
[4]Demurger Sylvie.2001. Infrastructure Development and Economic Growth: An Explanation for Regional Disparities in China? Journal of Comparative Economics 29:95-117.
[5]Devereuxa, Michael, P., Griffith, Rachel and Simpson Helen.2004. The Geographic Distribution of Production Activity in the UK [J]. Regional Science and Urban Economics 34:533-564.
[6]Duranton, Gilles and Overman Henry G..2005. Testing for Localization Using Micro-Geographic Data [J]. Review of Economic Studies 72:1077-1106.
[7]Ellison, Glenn, and Glaeser Edward L..1997. Geographic Concentration in U.S. Manufacturing Industries: A Dartboard Approach [J]. Journal of Political Economy 105(5):889-927.
[8]Fujita, M., Krugman, P. and Venables, A.J..1999. The Spatial Economy: Cities, Regions, and International Trade [M]. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.
[9]Harris, C..1954. The market as a factor in the localization of industry in the United States [J]. Annals of the Association of American Geographers 64:315-348.
[10]Head, K. and T. Mayer.2006. Regional Wage and Employment Responses to Market Potential in the EU [J]. Regional Science and Urban Economics 36(5):573-594.
[11]Helpman, Ehhana and Paul R. Krugman.1985. Market Structure and Foreign Trade [M]. The MIT Press.
[12]Hoover, E.M..1936. The Measurement of Industrial Localization [J]. Review of Economics and Statistics 18:162-171.
[13]Kim Sukkoo.1995. Expansion of Markets and the Geographic Distribution of Economic Activities: The Trends in U. S. Regional Manufacturing Structure 1860-1987 [J] The Quarterly Journal of Economics 110:881-908.
[14]Krugman,Paul.1991. Increasing returns and economic geography [J]. Journal of Political Economy 99:483-99.
[15]Lu, J. Y. and Tao Z.G..2009. Trends and Determinants of China's industrial agglomeration Journal of Urban Economics 65:167-180.
[16]Maurel, Francoise, and Sedillot Beatrice.1999. A Measure of the Geographic Concentration in French Manufacturing Industries [J]. Regional Science and Urban Economics 29(5):575-704.
[17]Redding, Stephen and Venables Anthony J..2004. Economic Geography and International Inequality [J]. Journal of International Economics 62:53-82.
[18]Samuelson, Paul A..1954. The transfer problem and transport costs Ⅱ: Analysis of trade impediments [J]. Economic Journal 64:264-289.
[19]白重恩、杜颖娟、陶志刚和仝月婷.地方保护主义及产业地区集中度的决定因素和变动趋势[J].经济研究2004(4)：29-40
[20]陈良文、杨开忠、吴姣.中国城市体系演化的实证研究[J].区域经济研究2007(1)：81-88
[21]范剑勇.市场一体化、地区专业化与产业集聚趋势----兼谈对地区差距的影响[J].中国社会科学2004(6)：39-51
[22]范剑勇.产业结构失衡、空间集聚与中国地区差距变化[J].上海经济研究2008(2)：3-13
[23]范剑勇、高人元和张雁.空间效率与区域协调发展战略选择[J].世界经济2010(2)：104-119
[24]范剑勇、李方文.产业集聚的证据与影响：基于国内实证文献的综述复旦大学经济学院工作论文2010
[25]范剑勇、邵挺.房地产价格、差异化产品区位分布与城市结构体系失衡：基于Thunen-Krugman-Helpman模型的估计 复旦大学经济学院工作论文 2010
[26]范剑勇、张雁.经济地理与地区间工资差异[J].经济研究2009(8)：73-84
[27]范剑勇、朱国林.中国地区差距演变及其结构分解[J].管理世界2002(7)：37-44
[28]国家信息中心.中国区域间投入产出表[M]北京：社会科学文献出版社2005：423
[29]洪兴建.基于S基尼系数的中国行业工资差距分析[J].统计研究2010,27(5)：18-24
[30]江飞涛.正确认识产能过剩问题[J].中国经贸导刊2010(20)：33-34
[31]姜江.我国部分新兴产业存在“潜在产能过剩”问题[J].宏观经济管理 2010(10)：22-23
[32]刘修岩、贺小海和殷醒民.市场潜能与地区工资差距：基于中国地级面板数据的实证研究[J]管理世界2007(9)：48-55
[33]刘修岩、殷醒民.空间外部性与地区工资差异：基于动态面板数据的实证研究[J].经济学(季刊)2008,8(1)：77-98
[34]路江涌、陶志刚.中国制造业区域聚集及国际比较[J]. 2006(3)：103-114
[35]路江涌、陶志刚.我国制造业区域集聚程度决定因素的研究[J].经济学(季刊)2007,6(3)：801-816
[36]路江涌、陶志刚.区域专业化分工与区域间行业同构[J].经济学报2007,2(1)：29-52
[37]罗勇、曹丽莉.中国制造业集聚程度变动趋势实证研究[J].经济研究2005(8)：106-127
[38]麦肯锡.迎接中国十亿城市大军[R/OL].麦肯锡全球研究院2008-03-28
[39]王非暗、王珏、唐韵和范剑勇.制造业扩散的时刻是否已经到来?[J].浙江社会科学2010(9)：2-10
[40]王志伟.产品过剩、产能过剩与经济结构调整[J].广东商学院学报2010(5)：4-9
[41]许征、陈钊和陆铭.中国城市体系的“中心-外围”模式[J].世界经济2010(7)：144-160
[42]周劲、付保宗.产能过剩中的政府“补位”与“退位-宏观调控[J].中国经贸导刊2010(18)：10-12