新药研发项目风险管理研究
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摘要
新药研发是一项高投入、高技术含量、高竞争、高收益的活动，它具有涉及面广、环节多、耗费资金多、研发周期长、成功率低、系统操作复杂等特点，由此也决定了它的高风险性特征。高风险性正是国内许多医药企业对于新药研发望而却步的一个重要原因。如何有效地规避新药研发的高风险是我国医药科技工作者的迫切要求和艰巨任务。因此，分析新药研发活动中存在的风险因素，进行有效的风险管理，对于我国医药产业可持续发展有着十分重要的理论意义和现实意义。
尽管目前我们对新药研发风险有了较为深入的认识和一定程度的重视，但从总体上看，这种重视还仅仅表现为对风险管理意识的增强，尚缺乏如何开展风险管理工作的操作性指南。而且，国内一些风险管理研究成果大多也是针对非医药行业，在新药研发方面的风险研究多集中在某一方面或某一种方法运用，更没有针对新药研发风险管理的系统性研究成果。本论文正是试图弥补这一空白。
本论文首先对项目管理理论、风险理论及风险管理理论作了简要回顾。对风险的定义、特征、识别、评估以及调控方面的研究进行了总结和评价，指出了现有风险管理理论的贡献与不足。也对我国医药行业新药研发的项目管理理论研究和风险管理研究做了总结。
其次，对国内外医药行业和新药研发的现状作了总结，在简要介绍新药研发流程的基础上，指出了医药行业的特殊性和新药研发的高风险特征。
在上述理论和现实情况研究的基础上，本文设计了新药研发项目风险管理模型：即风险管理规划、风险识别、风险评估、风险应对和风险监控的五阶段风险管理模型。这一模型的设计基础是项目管理理论、风险理论以及风险管理理论，是对这些理论的继承与发展，也是这些理论在医药产业中的实际应用。
再次，对新药研发风险管理模型进行了深入的研究。在风险识别方面，通过对现有文献的总结归纳，从技术创新风险来源角度将新药研发风险分为技术风险、财务风险、生产风险、管理风险、环境风险和市场风险这六大类，每一类风险中又包含了不同的子因素；在风险评估方面，通过调查表，对AHP方法所得判断矩阵进行处理，利用专家判断力权值确定专家权重和各指标的权重，最后根据主要因素确定留用指标，从而建立了风险评价指标体系；从模糊评价法入手，构造项目风险模糊隶属度矩阵，建立了一种基于模糊层次法(F-AHP)的新药研发项目风险综合评价方法；在风险应对方面，从技术、财务、管理、环境、生产、市场等六个方面提出了新药研发的风险管理应对策略。
最后，对我国新药研发项目风险做了定量研究。通过对我国新药研发项目整个生命周期中各个阶段转化率情况的定量分析，确定各阶段的风险情况，同时对其风险因素进行深入研究，从而为制药企业和科研院所针对研发风险大的薄弱环节强化管理、降低此阶段的研发风险提供参考和借鉴。
虽然新药研发有各种难以预料的风险，要完全避开或消除风险，或者只享有收益而不承担风险是不可能的，但只要善于利用现代风险管理理论，认真调查研究，对风险进行认真分析和科学管理，完全能够有效的规避风险，保证新药研发的成功。另外，新药研发周期长，风险复杂多样，而且在不同的阶段各类风险都交叉存在，因此对新药研发要实施全过程的动态风险管理。总之，有效的风险管理有助于提高研发项目的质量，并且将有利于目标市场的可持续开发；积极的风险管理有助于提高项目组和所在企业的风险意识和风险管理水平。因此，新药研发风险管理的研究和推广应用，对于我国制药企业及科研院校的新药项目组织具有重要的现实指导意义。
The research and development(R&D) of new medicines is an activity which requires high commitment, high techniques, high competition and high profits, and which needs numerous links, considerable funds, long cycle and complex systematic operation with low success rate. These features decide its high riskiness, which is the major reason why many domestic pharmaceutical enterprises flinch from the R&D of new medicines. How to avoid the high risks of the R&D of new medicines is a pressing demand and tough task. Therefore, to analyze the risk factors existing in the R&D of new medicines and to manage them effectively have theoretical and practical significance to the sustainable development of our nation's pharmaceutical industry.
Though nowadays we have some relatively profound idea and have attached importance in some degree to the risks of the R&D of new medicines, on the whole, we have just enhanced the consciousness of risk management and lack the operating guidance of risk management. Moreover, most of the home research of risk managements aims at non-pharmaceutical industry, and the risk research of the R&D of new medicines focuses on a particular aspect or on the applicance of a particular method without directing at systematic research findings of risk management of R&D of new medicines. This dissertation is trying to bridge that gap.
First, the dissertation makes a brief review of project management theories, risk theories and risk management theories, makes a summary and evaluation of the definition, characteristics, recognition, assessment and regulation, and points out the contribution and shortcomings of the current risk management theories. It also sums up the research of project management theories and the research of risk management of the R&D of new medicines.
Second, the dissertation sums up the current situation of domestic and overseas pharmaceutical industry and the R&D of new medicines. It also points out, by briefly introducing the procedures of R&D of new medicines, the special nature of pharmeceutical industry and the high riskiness of R&D of new medicines.
On the basis of above-mentioned theories and current situation research, the dissertation devises the project risk management model of the R&D of new medicines, which involves five stages: risk management plan, risk recognition, risk assessment, risk handling and risk monitoring. The model is devised on the basis of the project management theories, risk theories and risk management theories. It succeeds to and develops those theories and is the practical application of those theories to pharmaceutical industry.
Then, the dissertation makes a profound study of risk management model of the R&D of new medicines. In respect of risk recognition, by summing up the existing documents, from the angle of risk sources of technical innovation, the dissertation divides the risks of the R&D of new medicines into technique risks, finance risks, manufacture risks, management risks, market risks, each of which involves different sub-factors; in respect of risk assessment, the dissertation deals with estimation matrix got from AHP by questionaries, and makes use of experts' estimating weight to determine experts' weighing and each indicator's weighing, and finally according to main factors determines which indicators can be kept and establishes the indicator system of risk assessment; by means of vague assessment, the dissertation constructs vague membership grade matrix of project risks and establishes a comprehensive assessing method of project risks of the R&D of new medicines on the basis of F-AHP; in respect of risk handling, the dissertation raises the coping strategies of risk management of the R&D of new medicines in the six aspects of techniques, finance, management, environment, manufacture and market.
Finally, the dissertation makes a quantitative study of project risks of the R&D of new medicines. Through quantitative analysis of scientific and technical payoffs transformation of our nation's medicines, the dissertation shows the transformation ratio of each stage in the whole cycle of the R&D of new medicines, that is, the risk level of each stage. Thus, pharmaceutical enterprises and research institutes can enhance management, aiming at the low transformation ratio of scientific and technical payoffs, so as to reduce R&D risks of this stage.
Athough the R&D of new medicines will meet with various kinds of unexpected risks and it is impossible to avoid and eliminate risks or enjoy only profits without taking on risks, we can evade risks effectively and ensure the success of the R&D of new medicines as long as we are good at taking advantage of current risk management theories and make careful investigation and research. On the other hand, the R&D of new medicines has a long cycle and involves various and complicated risks which exist interlacing in different stages, therefore dynamic risk management should be conducted during the whole process of the R&D of new medicines. All in all, effective risk management contributes to the improvement of the quality of R&D project and the sustainable development of target market; active risk management helps improve the risk consciousness and risk management standard of project group and enterprise. As a resulf, the research, promotion and appication of risk management of the R&D of new medicines are of great practical and instructive significance to new medicine project group of our nation's pharmaceutical enterprises and research institutes and academies.
尽管目前我们对新药研发风险有了较为深入的认识和一定程度的重视，但从总体上看，这种重视还仅仅表现为对风险管理意识的增强，尚缺乏如何开展风险管理工作的操作性指南。而且，国内一些风险管理研究成果大多也是针对非医药行业，在新药研发方面的风险研究多集中在某一方面或某一种方法运用，更没有针对新药研发风险管理的系统性研究成果。本论文正是试图弥补这一空白。
本论文首先对项目管理理论、风险理论及风险管理理论作了简要回顾。对风险的定义、特征、识别、评估以及调控方面的研究进行了总结和评价，指出了现有风险管理理论的贡献与不足。也对我国医药行业新药研发的项目管理理论研究和风险管理研究做了总结。
其次，对国内外医药行业和新药研发的现状作了总结，在简要介绍新药研发流程的基础上，指出了医药行业的特殊性和新药研发的高风险特征。
在上述理论和现实情况研究的基础上，本文设计了新药研发项目风险管理模型：即风险管理规划、风险识别、风险评估、风险应对和风险监控的五阶段风险管理模型。这一模型的设计基础是项目管理理论、风险理论以及风险管理理论，是对这些理论的继承与发展，也是这些理论在医药产业中的实际应用。
再次，对新药研发风险管理模型进行了深入的研究。在风险识别方面，通过对现有文献的总结归纳，从技术创新风险来源角度将新药研发风险分为技术风险、财务风险、生产风险、管理风险、环境风险和市场风险这六大类，每一类风险中又包含了不同的子因素；在风险评估方面，通过调查表，对AHP方法所得判断矩阵进行处理，利用专家判断力权值确定专家权重和各指标的权重，最后根据主要因素确定留用指标，从而建立了风险评价指标体系；从模糊评价法入手，构造项目风险模糊隶属度矩阵，建立了一种基于模糊层次法(F-AHP)的新药研发项目风险综合评价方法；在风险应对方面，从技术、财务、管理、环境、生产、市场等六个方面提出了新药研发的风险管理应对策略。
最后，对我国新药研发项目风险做了定量研究。通过对我国新药研发项目整个生命周期中各个阶段转化率情况的定量分析，确定各阶段的风险情况，同时对其风险因素进行深入研究，从而为制药企业和科研院所针对研发风险大的薄弱环节强化管理、降低此阶段的研发风险提供参考和借鉴。
虽然新药研发有各种难以预料的风险，要完全避开或消除风险，或者只享有收益而不承担风险是不可能的，但只要善于利用现代风险管理理论，认真调查研究，对风险进行认真分析和科学管理，完全能够有效的规避风险，保证新药研发的成功。另外，新药研发周期长，风险复杂多样，而且在不同的阶段各类风险都交叉存在，因此对新药研发要实施全过程的动态风险管理。总之，有效的风险管理有助于提高研发项目的质量，并且将有利于目标市场的可持续开发；积极的风险管理有助于提高项目组和所在企业的风险意识和风险管理水平。因此，新药研发风险管理的研究和推广应用，对于我国制药企业及科研院校的新药项目组织具有重要的现实指导意义。
The research and development(R&D) of new medicines is an activity which requires high commitment, high techniques, high competition and high profits, and which needs numerous links, considerable funds, long cycle and complex systematic operation with low success rate. These features decide its high riskiness, which is the major reason why many domestic pharmaceutical enterprises flinch from the R&D of new medicines. How to avoid the high risks of the R&D of new medicines is a pressing demand and tough task. Therefore, to analyze the risk factors existing in the R&D of new medicines and to manage them effectively have theoretical and practical significance to the sustainable development of our nation's pharmaceutical industry.
Though nowadays we have some relatively profound idea and have attached importance in some degree to the risks of the R&D of new medicines, on the whole, we have just enhanced the consciousness of risk management and lack the operating guidance of risk management. Moreover, most of the home research of risk managements aims at non-pharmaceutical industry, and the risk research of the R&D of new medicines focuses on a particular aspect or on the applicance of a particular method without directing at systematic research findings of risk management of R&D of new medicines. This dissertation is trying to bridge that gap.
First, the dissertation makes a brief review of project management theories, risk theories and risk management theories, makes a summary and evaluation of the definition, characteristics, recognition, assessment and regulation, and points out the contribution and shortcomings of the current risk management theories. It also sums up the research of project management theories and the research of risk management of the R&D of new medicines.
Second, the dissertation sums up the current situation of domestic and overseas pharmaceutical industry and the R&D of new medicines. It also points out, by briefly introducing the procedures of R&D of new medicines, the special nature of pharmeceutical industry and the high riskiness of R&D of new medicines.
On the basis of above-mentioned theories and current situation research, the dissertation devises the project risk management model of the R&D of new medicines, which involves five stages: risk management plan, risk recognition, risk assessment, risk handling and risk monitoring. The model is devised on the basis of the project management theories, risk theories and risk management theories. It succeeds to and develops those theories and is the practical application of those theories to pharmaceutical industry.
Then, the dissertation makes a profound study of risk management model of the R&D of new medicines. In respect of risk recognition, by summing up the existing documents, from the angle of risk sources of technical innovation, the dissertation divides the risks of the R&D of new medicines into technique risks, finance risks, manufacture risks, management risks, market risks, each of which involves different sub-factors; in respect of risk assessment, the dissertation deals with estimation matrix got from AHP by questionaries, and makes use of experts' estimating weight to determine experts' weighing and each indicator's weighing, and finally according to main factors determines which indicators can be kept and establishes the indicator system of risk assessment; by means of vague assessment, the dissertation constructs vague membership grade matrix of project risks and establishes a comprehensive assessing method of project risks of the R&D of new medicines on the basis of F-AHP; in respect of risk handling, the dissertation raises the coping strategies of risk management of the R&D of new medicines in the six aspects of techniques, finance, management, environment, manufacture and market.
Finally, the dissertation makes a quantitative study of project risks of the R&D of new medicines. Through quantitative analysis of scientific and technical payoffs transformation of our nation's medicines, the dissertation shows the transformation ratio of each stage in the whole cycle of the R&D of new medicines, that is, the risk level of each stage. Thus, pharmaceutical enterprises and research institutes can enhance management, aiming at the low transformation ratio of scientific and technical payoffs, so as to reduce R&D risks of this stage.
Athough the R&D of new medicines will meet with various kinds of unexpected risks and it is impossible to avoid and eliminate risks or enjoy only profits without taking on risks, we can evade risks effectively and ensure the success of the R&D of new medicines as long as we are good at taking advantage of current risk management theories and make careful investigation and research. On the other hand, the R&D of new medicines has a long cycle and involves various and complicated risks which exist interlacing in different stages, therefore dynamic risk management should be conducted during the whole process of the R&D of new medicines. All in all, effective risk management contributes to the improvement of the quality of R&D project and the sustainable development of target market; active risk management helps improve the risk consciousness and risk management standard of project group and enterprise. As a resulf, the research, promotion and appication of risk management of the R&D of new medicines are of great practical and instructive significance to new medicine project group of our nation's pharmaceutical enterprises and research institutes and academies.
引文
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