新疆牧民生产决策行为与草地退化问题研究
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摘要
草地资源是我国干旱半干旱地区生态安全的重要屏障,也是草地畜牧业发展的重要物质基础。大面积的草地退化不仅直接影响牧民的生产活动与牧区的经济发展,也是许多区域性生态灾难的主要诱因。草地退化问题已经引起党和国家的关注、成为学术界研究的一个热点问题。大多相关研究集中在区域内草地退化的表现和原因,而将牧民作为研究对象,从牧民的生产生活出发探究草地退化之间成因、寻求抑制草地退化措施的研究尚不多见。本文认为:农民问题是我国“三农”问题的核心,不从农民的权益出发,就不可能从根本上解决“三农”问题。近年来,行为经济学、实验经济学的发展使经济学家们逐步把目光转向经济发展的微观层面去探索经济主体的行为对经济发展的影响。对农户经济行为的研究已经成为发展经济学一个理论前沿问题就是对这一转变的很好映证。基于以上认识,本研究以新疆阿勒泰传统牧区青河县和富蕴县牧民为研究对象,通过探索牧民生产决策行为与草地退化之间的内在关联性,综合分析影响牧民生产决策的主要因素以及各因素与牧民生产决策之间的互动关系,旨在从中发现抑制草地退化的路径与措施。
本研究通过文献分析、专家讨论和实地调研确定了研究区域牧民生产决策的目标集,该目标集包含:过轻松自由的放牧生活;将牲畜、草场作为财产留给自己的下一代;做一个受人尊重的牧民;通过饲养牲畜并在将来价格较高时销售、以获得更多的收入;提高目前家庭的生活水平五个目标。利用配对比较法确定各种目标重要性,其中将牲畜、草场作为财产留给自己的下一代是最为重要的生产目标,而通过饲养牲畜并在将来价格较高时销售以获得更多的收入次之。然后,分别以这两个目标最大化为生产决策的目标函数,构建新疆牧民生产决策的线型规划模型。利用该模型,采用情境分析法模拟分析了牧民对草地退化影响的认知、草地资源利用的外在约束、畜产品市场变化和生产技术等因素变化状况对牧民生产决策的影响。对模拟结果的分析表明:(1)以收入最大化为目标的生产决策比以规模最大化为目标的生产决策更有利于缓解草场压力;(2)牧民的自我约束对抑制草地退化的效果不小于来自政府强制性约束的效果;(3)在目前超载过牧的情况下,价格上涨有助于降低饲养规模;(4)降低生产风险的生产技术进步有助于减少饲养规模。基于以上分析,本研究进一步考察了草地产权制度、草畜平衡管理、有机畜牧业发展等政策或政策倾向在研究区域实施的前景,阐述了本研究对这些政策及政策倾向的基本观点:以草地资源私有化为指向的产权改革难以内化草地资源利用的“外部性”;草畜平衡管理需要牧民内在变化相配合;有机畜牧业是新疆草地畜牧业可持续发展的方向。
以这些分析结果与观点为基础,本研究提出一些有助于保护牧民利益、抑制草地退化的政策与建议:(1)建立草地资源动态监测体系;(2)促进两个转变:牧民对草地退化影响的认知向行为转化、牧户作为单纯的生产单位向生产与生态保护单位相统一转变;(3)在稳定、完善草场承包制度的基础上,以草地使用权流转为切入点,探索草地资源利用新机制;(4)政策与措施的指导思想要由单纯追求畜产品的供给向发挥草地生态系统多功能性转变;(5)将有机畜牧业可以作为转变生产方式的一个选择进行试点与发展
Natural grassland is an important material basis for human survival and development,and also a significant ecological barrier. Doubtlesly, grassland degradation will influence herdman’s production activity and the development of pasturing area economy. Meanwhile, it is the main inducement factor of some ecological disaster. So it has been a hot issue in academic circles. Many researches have focused on the manifestations and causes of grassland degradation. However, research on the relationship between herdman’s production behavior and grassland degradation is not very much.
Peasant problem is the core of“Three Agricultural Problems”in China. It is impossible to solve“Three Agricultural Problems”completely, if the rights of farmers are neglected. Because of the development of Behavioral Economics and Experimental Economics in recent years,more and more economists focus on the economic development at micro level, to explore the influence of behavior of micro subjects on the economic development. That is the reason why the research on the rural household economic behavior has been an issue at the theoretical front of development economics. This research tries to find some methods and measures to inhibit the phenomenon of grassland degradation by analyzing the internal relationship between the production decision making of herdsman and the grassland degradation.
The objective set of production decision making is determined firstly in the study by literature analysis, experts’discussion and spot investigation. The objective set mainly includes five concrete goals, they are: living in the countryside freely; transferring the livestock and grassland to next generation as property; obtaining the higher income; becoming a farmer respected by others; and improving the living standard. In order to analyze their importance for herdsman in production decision making, the Paired Comparison is applied in the study. The results show that the first goal is“Transferring the livestock and grassland to next generation as property”in the production decision making of herdsman, the second is“obtaining the higher income”. The two goals are used as objective functions when the linear programming model of production decision making is built. The model is a tool to analyze different situational decision making,they are: cognition status of herdsman to grassland degradation; the external restraints of grassland utilization; the market situation of livestock products; the application of production technology. The result of simulation shows:
(1) Different goals of production decision making have different influences on grassland degradation. The production decisions aiming at income maximization is more favorable for relieving grassland pressure that the ones aiming at scale maximization.
(2) The effect of herdsman’s self-restriction on inhibiting grassland degradation is not less then government mandatory regulation for the grassland utilization;
(3) Under the situation of overgrazing, The price rise of livestock products will be helpful to decrease the breeding scale;
(4) The application of production technology in risk reduction will be helpful to decrease the breeding scale.
Based on the results above, the research also analyzes the implementation effect and prospects of some policies and ideas, such as grassland property right system; feed-animal balance control and organic livestock industry. There are some conclusions as follows:
(1) It is difficult to internalize the externalities of grassland utilization by privatization of grassland resource;
(2) It is necessary that herdsman have some internal change in cognition and behavior to grassland utilization, if we want to obtain good results from feed-animal balance control;
(3) Organic livestock industry is a kind of choice for realization of sustainable development.
Based on the analyses above, the research proposes some suggestions for protecting herdsman’s rights and interests and inhibiting grassland degradation. They are:
(1) Building the system of grassland resources dynamic monitoring;
(2) Promoting the transformation: the congnition of herdman on grassland degradation to action; and peasant household as the basic production unit to the unit of production +ecological construction;
(3) Perfecting the Household Contract System, promoting the use right transfer, exploring the new mechanism of grassland utilization;
(4) Changing the guiding ideology of policy and measurement from pursuing the supply of products to muliti-function of grassland;
(5) Promoting the development of organic animal husbandry.
本研究通过文献分析、专家讨论和实地调研确定了研究区域牧民生产决策的目标集,该目标集包含:过轻松自由的放牧生活;将牲畜、草场作为财产留给自己的下一代;做一个受人尊重的牧民;通过饲养牲畜并在将来价格较高时销售、以获得更多的收入;提高目前家庭的生活水平五个目标。利用配对比较法确定各种目标重要性,其中将牲畜、草场作为财产留给自己的下一代是最为重要的生产目标,而通过饲养牲畜并在将来价格较高时销售以获得更多的收入次之。然后,分别以这两个目标最大化为生产决策的目标函数,构建新疆牧民生产决策的线型规划模型。利用该模型,采用情境分析法模拟分析了牧民对草地退化影响的认知、草地资源利用的外在约束、畜产品市场变化和生产技术等因素变化状况对牧民生产决策的影响。对模拟结果的分析表明:(1)以收入最大化为目标的生产决策比以规模最大化为目标的生产决策更有利于缓解草场压力;(2)牧民的自我约束对抑制草地退化的效果不小于来自政府强制性约束的效果;(3)在目前超载过牧的情况下,价格上涨有助于降低饲养规模;(4)降低生产风险的生产技术进步有助于减少饲养规模。基于以上分析,本研究进一步考察了草地产权制度、草畜平衡管理、有机畜牧业发展等政策或政策倾向在研究区域实施的前景,阐述了本研究对这些政策及政策倾向的基本观点:以草地资源私有化为指向的产权改革难以内化草地资源利用的“外部性”;草畜平衡管理需要牧民内在变化相配合;有机畜牧业是新疆草地畜牧业可持续发展的方向。
以这些分析结果与观点为基础,本研究提出一些有助于保护牧民利益、抑制草地退化的政策与建议:(1)建立草地资源动态监测体系;(2)促进两个转变:牧民对草地退化影响的认知向行为转化、牧户作为单纯的生产单位向生产与生态保护单位相统一转变;(3)在稳定、完善草场承包制度的基础上,以草地使用权流转为切入点,探索草地资源利用新机制;(4)政策与措施的指导思想要由单纯追求畜产品的供给向发挥草地生态系统多功能性转变;(5)将有机畜牧业可以作为转变生产方式的一个选择进行试点与发展
Natural grassland is an important material basis for human survival and development,and also a significant ecological barrier. Doubtlesly, grassland degradation will influence herdman’s production activity and the development of pasturing area economy. Meanwhile, it is the main inducement factor of some ecological disaster. So it has been a hot issue in academic circles. Many researches have focused on the manifestations and causes of grassland degradation. However, research on the relationship between herdman’s production behavior and grassland degradation is not very much.
Peasant problem is the core of“Three Agricultural Problems”in China. It is impossible to solve“Three Agricultural Problems”completely, if the rights of farmers are neglected. Because of the development of Behavioral Economics and Experimental Economics in recent years,more and more economists focus on the economic development at micro level, to explore the influence of behavior of micro subjects on the economic development. That is the reason why the research on the rural household economic behavior has been an issue at the theoretical front of development economics. This research tries to find some methods and measures to inhibit the phenomenon of grassland degradation by analyzing the internal relationship between the production decision making of herdsman and the grassland degradation.
The objective set of production decision making is determined firstly in the study by literature analysis, experts’discussion and spot investigation. The objective set mainly includes five concrete goals, they are: living in the countryside freely; transferring the livestock and grassland to next generation as property; obtaining the higher income; becoming a farmer respected by others; and improving the living standard. In order to analyze their importance for herdsman in production decision making, the Paired Comparison is applied in the study. The results show that the first goal is“Transferring the livestock and grassland to next generation as property”in the production decision making of herdsman, the second is“obtaining the higher income”. The two goals are used as objective functions when the linear programming model of production decision making is built. The model is a tool to analyze different situational decision making,they are: cognition status of herdsman to grassland degradation; the external restraints of grassland utilization; the market situation of livestock products; the application of production technology. The result of simulation shows:
(1) Different goals of production decision making have different influences on grassland degradation. The production decisions aiming at income maximization is more favorable for relieving grassland pressure that the ones aiming at scale maximization.
(2) The effect of herdsman’s self-restriction on inhibiting grassland degradation is not less then government mandatory regulation for the grassland utilization;
(3) Under the situation of overgrazing, The price rise of livestock products will be helpful to decrease the breeding scale;
(4) The application of production technology in risk reduction will be helpful to decrease the breeding scale.
Based on the results above, the research also analyzes the implementation effect and prospects of some policies and ideas, such as grassland property right system; feed-animal balance control and organic livestock industry. There are some conclusions as follows:
(1) It is difficult to internalize the externalities of grassland utilization by privatization of grassland resource;
(2) It is necessary that herdsman have some internal change in cognition and behavior to grassland utilization, if we want to obtain good results from feed-animal balance control;
(3) Organic livestock industry is a kind of choice for realization of sustainable development.
Based on the analyses above, the research proposes some suggestions for protecting herdsman’s rights and interests and inhibiting grassland degradation. They are:
(1) Building the system of grassland resources dynamic monitoring;
(2) Promoting the transformation: the congnition of herdman on grassland degradation to action; and peasant household as the basic production unit to the unit of production +ecological construction;
(3) Perfecting the Household Contract System, promoting the use right transfer, exploring the new mechanism of grassland utilization;
(4) Changing the guiding ideology of policy and measurement from pursuing the supply of products to muliti-function of grassland;
(5) Promoting the development of organic animal husbandry.
引文
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