煤矿安全风险综合评价与预警管理模式研究
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摘要
煤炭作为我国重要的基础能源,在国民经济中扮演重要的战略角色。煤矿安全生产直接关系到我国经济建设的长久持续发展以及能源战略的实施情况,对我国全面建设小康社会以及现代化建设都起着决定性的作用。为此,必须高度重视煤矿安全生产,确保煤炭工业持续、稳定、健康发展。
近年来,我国制订了一系列的政策和措施加强煤矿安全管理力度。如2010年,我国共有2045处小煤矿因不具备安全生产条件被关闭。在国家政策的引导下,虽然我国煤矿事故总量呈下降趋势,百万吨死亡率从2001年的5.07降为2011年的0.564,但与国际先进采煤国家相比还相差甚远,如美国煤矿2004-2006年的百万吨死亡率分别仅为0.027、0.021和0.045。而且我国还一直是世界上煤矿伤亡事故发生频率最高、伤亡人数最多的国家之一。此外,网络通信技术、计算技术等的快速发展对煤矿企业安全管理提出了更高的要求,因此,煤矿企业需要充分利用现代技术加快信息化建设提升安全管理水平,从而建设具有“高度信息化、自动化、高效率”特点的数字化煤矿。通过本文研究,有助于找出煤矿事故的致灾原因,从而有效提高煤矿安全生产水平和管理水平。
为了促进我国煤矿安全生产形势好转,本文将剖析我国煤矿安全事故发生的深层次原因,通过综合评价煤矿企业安全生产水平来掌握影响安全生产的主要因素。本文结合我国煤矿安全生产的特点,利用现代先进的科学理论方法对煤矿安全生产活动进行动态监控和预警,构建完善的煤矿安全预警指标体系与预警模型,对煤矿安全生产活动进行实时监控和矫正,从而为预防及减少煤矿事故提供理论支持和技术保障。本文研究的主要结论包括：
第一,在对安全事故相关概念界定的基础上,提出事故具有因果相关性、事故后果随机性、事故后果不可挽回性及人为可控性四个特征:在对现有煤矿事故致因理论分析的基础上,剖析了煤矿事故的五大类因子：管理因子、人的因子、设备因子、环境因子和信息因子,提出了一种针对可控性事故的符合我国煤矿生产安全管理实践的煤矿事故致因机理,即由于煤矿生产系统中人、设备、环境的缺陷导致的不安全情况,在管理缺陷或信息缺陷下,导致煤矿事故发生,经过应急救援后,形成了事故的最终损失。
第二,针对我国煤矿地质条件的复杂情况,提出了我国煤矿工业系统具有复杂性、动态变化性、变化模糊性和随机性及应急救援和灾害事故处理任务艰巨三大特征,并阐释了以“安全第一,预防为主”为生产方针的煤矿安全评价的重要价值；此外,通过对目前研究状况的分析,发现煤矿安全指标体系的构建和优选尚缺乏统一的标准和方法,根据大多数学者自己的经验,指标体系的确定遵循一定原则会造成主观性过强,无法反映客观的存在,容易出现偏差。层次分析法、德尔菲法及模糊评价法同样很难避免这一弊端；采用主成分分析、变异系数法、神经网络法等统计方法要建立在大容量样本的基础上,然后多数情况下大容量样本是不可获得的。本文在分析各方法的优势和弊端之后,提出基于信息熵法的指标筛选方法,利用该方法进行煤矿安全评价初始指标体系的优化选择。
第三,对模糊神经网络的概念及优势进行了阐释,提出了模糊神经网络实现的原理,具体包括输入层、模糊化层、隐含层、输出层及去模糊化层等5个层次；对定性指标根据相应的规定进行了划分,提出了采用德尔菲法进行量化；并进行了实证分析,可以看出模糊神经网络模型在煤矿安全评价中的优势,结合模糊理论和神经网络技术的模糊神经网络模型既具有学习、联系和自适应能力,又具有模糊思维,可以使得评价结果更具有客观性,仅仅通过对已知样本的学习,就可以获得专家思维,然后可以直接用训练好的网络来仿真待评价样本,降低了评价中的人为因素；同时,利用网络训练求出相应的权重后,即可知道哪些因素对煤矿安全程度影响较大,哪些因素比较重要,从而确定煤矿安全管理的重点。
第四,界定了煤矿事故预警的内涵;给出了BP神经网络和遗传算法的煤矿安全预警评估方法,BP神经网络具有很好的自学习、自适应、并行处理和进行非线性计算的能力,因此在智能控制、非线性优化、信号处理等方面取得了广泛的应用。遗传算法是一种基于自然选择和基因遗传学原理的随机搜索优化方法,具有很强的全局优化能力。因此将两者有机结合起来,用后者对前者的权值和阈值进行优化,可以使网络具有更快的收敛速度,这样,既发挥了神经网络的泛化映射能力,又避免了陷入局部极小的问题,并通过遗传算法优化神经网络权值和阈值建立煤矿事故预警模型;结合义马煤业集团的实际情况对构建的事故预警模型进行应用,发现GA-BP与BP神经网络相比具有更好的预测精度和更快的收敛速度,得出了遗传算法优化BP神经网络是可行的、有效的。
第五,从预警分析和预控对策两方面实现煤矿事故预警管理工作,并在此基础上,形成了从企业各职能管理部门到安全预警中心各部分的工作流程。预警分析包括监测、识别、诊断及预警评估四个方面;预控对策包括组织准备、日常监控和应急管理三方面的内容。煤矿企业各职能管理部门向安全预警中心定期上报运营管理诊断状态报表,并详细说明所采取的预控措施和所取得的效果。安全预警中心对预警指标进行实时监测,当监测结果处于正常状态时,继续监测：当监测结果显示警戒状态时,通过预控对策库采取合适措施进行纠正；当监测结果显示危机状态时,立即成立危机管理小组实施救援工作,直到生产系统转危为安,到达正常工作状态,并将处理危机采取的措施反馈到对策库中,经过长期积累,事故预警管理系统达到很强的免疫能力。此外,安全预警中心还要负责整个煤矿企业工作的组织、指挥和协调,对各部门的预警工作进行定期检查和总结。
另外,给出了从有效和失效两角度启动相应的煤矿预警管理系统及应急管理状态,提出了合理有效的煤矿事故预警管理系统运转模式。煤矿预警管理系统的运转应围绕着“人-机-环-管-信息”开展其活动。对致灾因素预警管理会产生两种结果：有效的预警管理使生产系统转危为安,此时生产系统可以继续运行;失效的预警管理应启动应急措施,此时生产系统停止运行进入调整阶段。在应急管理状态下,通过实施及时正确的预控对策可以促使生产系统恢复到正常生产状态,失败的后果可能发生重大或重特大事故。无论企业是由危险状态还是由应急管理状态转入正常生产状态,其发生的过程和结果参数都将反馈于预警管理系统中的信息库和对策库中,如此可以合理调整和优化下一周期过程中的预警活动。依照煤矿事故预警管理理论所提出的原理可知,预警管理包括对安全管理失误、生产管理波动、重大危险进行监测、识别、诊断、评价、预控等。
第六,从正式制度和非正式制度两方面提供对策建议,进一步完善我国煤矿安全生产管理保障体系。正式制度,作为社会制度的主流,具有强制性的特点,其为非正式制度的建设提供了条件。国家及煤矿企业通过正式制度对煤矿安全生产管理进行协调管制,主要有3个方面：完善煤矿安全生产标准体系、加大煤矿安全生产投入和加强应急救援保障措施。正式制度离不开法律法规的规定,加大其执行力度,为煤矿安全生产管理营造健康发展的环境。正式制度的安排也应结合各地具体情况进行调整和再界定,需要各地政府对相关规定进行合理变通和灵活处置。非正式制度,虽不能代替正式制度,但也是制度不可分割的一部分,是一种具有自发性、非强制性、连续性和广泛性等特点用以规范行业的行为准则,与正式制度形成互补和谐的关系,它并非使用法律法规等强硬手段来实现,其依靠的是行为准则、道德传统等柔性手段。本章从加强煤矿安全技术培训、加强煤矿安全宣传及文化建设、加强国内外安全技术交流合作和加强信息化建设四个方面来阐述煤矿安全生产管理的非正式制度安排。
正式制度为非正式制度的建设提供了基础,非正式制度弥补正式制度的不足。正式制度虽具有强制性但也离不开非正式制度,非正式制度虽然弥补了不足,但其缺乏成文的规定,无法约束煤矿企业的安全生产行为。要想促进煤矿安全生产管理,离不开两种制度的建设,而且两种制度目的统一方能有效。另外制度不是一成不变的,与时俱进才能促进煤矿安全可持续发展。
论文的主要创新体现在：
(1)提出了适合我国的煤矿事故致因机理。本文在借鉴事故致因理论的基础上,通过对煤矿事故形成原因的归纳分类,将其分为人的因子、设备因子、环境因子、管理因子、信息因子等5大类,并对危险因子的作用方式进行比较分析,探讨各因子间相互作用路径及事故发生演化规律,提出了煤矿事故致因机理的逻辑框架,并以此作为构建煤矿安全评价指标体系的理论框架。
(2)建立了“人-机-环-管-信息”评估指标模型。从现有研究看,大多数学者根据事故致因理论“人-机-环”指标评估体系,这一体系缺少对安全信息管理的考量。从我国煤矿信息化管理现状看,加强信息安全管理显得尤为重要和迫切。因此,本文将人、机、环、管、信息等要素相结合,同时考虑人员、设备、环境、管理以及信息缺陷可能造成的问题和结果,建立更为全面的评估指标体系模型,具有一定的创新价值。利用信息熵法对煤矿安全评价指标体系进行优化。指标体系是否合理会直接影响到评价结果的准确性,通过指标筛选方法的对比研究,本文选择了较为客观的信息熵法对指标体系进行了优化。结合模糊理论和神经网络模型,构建了模糊神经网络模型。通过模糊理论和神经网络技术的有机结合,利用了两个理论各自的优点,同时避免了它们的缺陷,为煤矿生产这种复杂系统的安全现状评价提出了一种新的思路。
(3)构建了基于遗传算法优化的煤矿安全神经网络预警模型。从现有煤矿安全预警方法看,模糊综合评价、层次分析、灰色关联分析方法都是学者关注的方法。但是这些方法往往主观性过程,并直接导致评估结果的不确定性增加以及模糊性的增加。本文将神经网络模型运用到煤矿安全预警模型的构建,同时兼顾遗传算法的优点,使神经网络模型具有较强的学习能力和较快的收敛性,具有一定创新性。
Coal is an important basic energy in our country, and occupies an important strategic position in the national economy. Coal mine safety production is directly related to economic construction in long-term sustainable development and the implementation of the energy strategy,and plays a decisive role in building a moderately prosperous society and modernization construction. Therefore,we must attach great importance to coal mine safety production,to ensure the coal industry sustained, stable and healthy.
In recent years,China has developed a series of policies and measures to strengthen mine safety management efforts. As in2010,total of2045small coal mines closed for they didn't have the conditions for safe production in China. Under the guidance of national policy, although the total amount of coal mine accidents decreased, one million tons mortality rate dropped from5.07in2001to0.564in2011,but it is far cry compared with the international advanced countries, such as the U.S.2004-2006one million tons coal mortality was only0.027,0.021and0.045. China is one of countries which have the highest frequency of mine casualties and the largest number of casualties around the world. In addition, the rapid development of network communicaton technology, computing technology and other technologies put forward higher requirements on the safety management of coal mining enterprises,and coal mining enterprises need to take full use of modern technology to speed up the construction of information technology to enhance the safety management level, thus to build a "high-information, automated, high-efficiency"digital mine. IT and higy-tech advances in digital technology for the construction of coal mines to provide a theoretical basis and technical support. Through this research, it helps to identify the cause of coal mine accident hazards, improves the level of safety production and management.
In order to analyze the deep-seated reasons of coal mine safety accidents,grasp the main factors affecting safety in production,evaluate the standards of coal mine safety production, and promote the improve of coal mine safety production situation. This thesis combines the characteristics of coal mine safety production,and uses modern and advanced scientific theroretical methods for coal mine safety production activities for dynamic monitoring and early warning,to build a warning index system of coal mine safety and warning model in real-time monitoring and correction,so as to provide theoretical support and technical support for preventing and reducing coal mine accidents. The main conclusions of this thesis include:
First,based on the define of security incidents related,and propose causal correction accident,accident consequences randomness,irreparable consequences of accidents and human controllability of four characteristics; based on the existing coal mine accident causation theory, analyses the five categories of coal mine accident factors:management factors, human factors, equipment factors,environmental factors and information factors,we propose an accident causing mechanism for a controllable incidents and compliance of coal mine safety production management practice,that is, since the human mine production systems,equipment and the environment caused by defects in an unsafe condition, with the defect in information and management, resulting in coal mine accident,after emergency rescue, formed the eventual loss of the accident.
Second, for the complex geological conditions of coal mine situation, this thesis puts forward that coal industry system has a complex,dynamic variability,change fuzziness and randomness,and emergency rescue and arduous handing task of disaster incident three characteristics,and explains the significant value of coal mine safety assessment based on the principle of "safety is important,prevcaution goes first"; Moreover,through analysis of the situation for the present study found that mine safety indicator system and preferably lack of uniform standards and methods,according to most scholars own experience,indicators follow certain principles to cause subjectivity is too strong, can not reflect the objective existence prone to bias. AHP, Delphi and fuzzy evaluation method are also difficult to avoid the drawbacks; using principal component analysis,the coefficient of variation method,neural networks and other statistical methods should be established on the basis of a large sample volume, large capacity and in most cases the sample can not be obtained. This thesis analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of each method, then proposes method based on information entropy index screening methods, the use of this method for coal mine safety assessment index system to optimize the initial selection.
Third, this thesis explains the concept and advantages of fuzzy neural network,and puts forward the principle of fuzzy neural networks, specifically including input layer, fuzzy layer, hidden layer and output layer and defuzzification layer these five levels; Divide the qualitative indicators according to the corresponding provisions, and using the Delphi method to quanify; and empirical analysis,fuzzy neural network model can be seen in the coal mine safety assessment advantages,combined fuzzy theory and neural network technology, fuzzy neural network model both with learning,communication and adaptive capacity,but also has fuzzy thinking, you can make a more objective evaluation results resistance, a sample of known only by the study,it can get expert thinking, then the trained network can be directly used to simulate a sample to be evaluated, reducing human factors of evaluation; same time, using the appropriate network training, the weights obtained, you can know which factors influenced the degree of mine safety, what factors are important to determine the coal mine safety management focus.
Fourth, this thesis defines the meaning of coal mine accident warning; gives a BP neural network and genetic algorithm mine safety waring assessement methods,BP neural network has good self-learning,adaptive, nonlinear parallel processing and computing power,so in intelligent control,nonlinear optimization, signal processing,and achieved a wide range of applications. Genetic algorithm is based on the principle of natural selection and genetics random search optimization method, has a strong global optimization capability. So combine the two, with the latter on the former weights and thresholds tuning,you can make the network has a faster convergence rate, so that not only played a neural network generalization mapping ability,but also avoid falling into local pole small problems,and through genetic algorithm optimization neural network weights and thresholds established coal mine accident warning model; combining the actual situation on the Yima Coal Group Stock CO.,LTD apply the accident early warning model, and found that GA-BP and BP neural network has better prediction accuracy and faster convergence,obtained genetic algorithm to optimize BP neural network is feasible and effective.
Fifth, this thesis from early waring analysis and pre-control measures to achieve coal mine accidents early warning management,and on this basis,form the workflow of various functions of management to security warning center. Warning analysis includes monitorin, identification,diagnosis and warning assessment four aspects; pre-control measures includes organizational readiness, daily monitoring and emergency management three aspects. Various functional management departments of coal mining enterprises report regularly to the Security Warning Center operations management diagnostic status reports, and details of the pre-control measures taken and the results obtained. Safety warning center for real-time monitoring of early waring indicators, when monitoring results in a normal state,continue to monitor; when monitoring results indicate the alert of the stage, take appropriate measures through the pre-control measures library to rectify; When monitoring results indicate a state of crisis, establish immediately the Crisis Management Team to implement the rescue work until the production system pull through reachi a normal operating state. The measures taken to deal with crisis countermeasures feedback to the library,and through a long-term accumulation, accident warning management system achieves a strong immunity. In addition, the security warning centers are also responsible for the work of the entire coal mining enterprises organizing, directing and coordinating, and conduct regular checks and summary fo various department.
In addition,this thesis gives the effective and failure of two angles to launch the appropriate management systems and mine waring state emergency management,and proposes the reasonable and effective coal mine accidents warning management system operating mode. Mine warning management system should be running around the "man-machine-environment-management-information" to carry out its activities. Warning management of causal factors will produce two results:an effective warning management of production system turned the corner, then the production system can continue to run; Failure warning management should be initiated emergency measures to stop the run into the adjustment phase. In the state of emergency management, through the implementation of timely and correct pre-control measures can promote the production system to return to normal production status, but the consequences of failure may cause significant of serious accidents. Whether enterprises are run by the state of crisis or emergency management into normal production status, the process and results of its occurrence parameters will feedback the database and countermeasure library of warning management system, so it is reasonable to adjust and optimize the process of the next cycle che early warning activities. Coal mine accident warning in accordance with the proposed principles of management theory shows that earl warning management including safety management failures,fluctuations in production management, mjor hazard monitoring, identification, diagnosis,evaluation, pre-control and so on.
Sixth,this thesis provides both countermeasures and suggestions to further improve China coal mine production safety management security system based on the formal and informal institutions. Formal system,as the mainstream of social systems,mandatory features, which is an informal system construction provided the conditions. Country and coal mining enterprises conduct coordination control through formal system of coal mine safety production management,there are three areas:improving mine safety production standards,increase investment and strengthen coal mine production safety emergency rescue safeguards. Formal system of laws and regulations can not be separated, to increase its enforcement, create a healthy environment for the development of the coal mine safety production management. Formal institutional arrangements should also be combined with the specific circumstances around to adjust and re-defined, local governments need to make reasonable modifications to the relevant fixed and flexible disposition. Informal system, although not a substitute for the formal system, but it is also an integral part of the system, is a kind of spontaneous,non-mandatory, continuity and universality characteristics of conduct to regulate the industry,complementary harmony with the formal system relationship, it is not hard to use legal means to achieve such, it relies on the code of conduct, moral traditions and other flexible means. This informal institutional arrangemients consists:strengthen mine safety technical training,strengthen publicity and cultural construction of coal mine safety,strengthen exchanges and cooperation with foreign security technologies and strengthen information technology.
Formal system provides the basis for the construction of the informal system, and an informal system to make up for the lack of formal institutions. The formal system is mandatory but inseparable from the informal system,the informal system,although insufficient to make up, but lack of documented requirements,can not constrain coal mine safety and production behavior.
To promote coal mine safety production management,it is inseparable from the construction of the two systems, and the two systems can only effective unity of purpose. Besides system is not static, only with the times can promote sustainable development of coal mine safety.
The main innovation is reflected in the thesis:
(1) Propose for the coal mine accident causation mechanism. This thesis based on the drawing on accident causation theory,categorizes the reason formation of coal mine accidents into human factors,equipment factors,environmental factors,management factors and information factors of five aspects, and compare and analysis the role of risk factors to explore the interaction between various factors and accident evolution path proposed mechanism of cola mine accident causation logical framework, and as the theoretical framework of evaluation index system of coal mine safety.
(2) Establish a "man-machine-environment-management-information" evaluation index model. From the existing research,the majority of scholars,according to accident causation theory "man-machine-environment" index evaluation system, the lack of security information management system considerations. From our present situation mine information management, strengthen information security management is particularly important and urgent. Therefore, this thesis combines people,machines,environment,management, information and other elements, taking into account the personnel, equipment, environment, management, and information problems and defects that may cause results to establish a more comprehensive assessment index system model, with some the value of innovation. Optimize the coal mine safety evaluation index system by using the information entropy method. The reasonable of indicator system will directly affect the accuracy of the evaluation results,through the comparative study of indicators of screening methods, this thesis choose a more objective information entropy method to optimize the index system.Combine with fuzzy theory and neural network model to construct fuzzy neural network model. The technology combine of fuzzy theory and neural network, the use of their respective advantages of the two theories, while avoiding their defects, presents a new way of thinking.For mine production safety evaluation of complex systems
(3) Construct network prediction model of coal mine safety based on genetic algorithm optimization neural. From the existing ways of coal mine safety warning, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, AHP, gray relational analysis methods are concerned approach. However, these methods are often subjective process, and directly led to increased uncertainty assessment results as well as an increase in ambiguity. This neural network model applied to the construction of coal mine safety warning model, taking into account the advantages of genetic algorithm, so neural network model has a strong learning ability and fast convergence, has a certain innovation.
近年来,我国制订了一系列的政策和措施加强煤矿安全管理力度。如2010年,我国共有2045处小煤矿因不具备安全生产条件被关闭。在国家政策的引导下,虽然我国煤矿事故总量呈下降趋势,百万吨死亡率从2001年的5.07降为2011年的0.564,但与国际先进采煤国家相比还相差甚远,如美国煤矿2004-2006年的百万吨死亡率分别仅为0.027、0.021和0.045。而且我国还一直是世界上煤矿伤亡事故发生频率最高、伤亡人数最多的国家之一。此外,网络通信技术、计算技术等的快速发展对煤矿企业安全管理提出了更高的要求,因此,煤矿企业需要充分利用现代技术加快信息化建设提升安全管理水平,从而建设具有“高度信息化、自动化、高效率”特点的数字化煤矿。通过本文研究,有助于找出煤矿事故的致灾原因,从而有效提高煤矿安全生产水平和管理水平。
为了促进我国煤矿安全生产形势好转,本文将剖析我国煤矿安全事故发生的深层次原因,通过综合评价煤矿企业安全生产水平来掌握影响安全生产的主要因素。本文结合我国煤矿安全生产的特点,利用现代先进的科学理论方法对煤矿安全生产活动进行动态监控和预警,构建完善的煤矿安全预警指标体系与预警模型,对煤矿安全生产活动进行实时监控和矫正,从而为预防及减少煤矿事故提供理论支持和技术保障。本文研究的主要结论包括：
第一,在对安全事故相关概念界定的基础上,提出事故具有因果相关性、事故后果随机性、事故后果不可挽回性及人为可控性四个特征:在对现有煤矿事故致因理论分析的基础上,剖析了煤矿事故的五大类因子：管理因子、人的因子、设备因子、环境因子和信息因子,提出了一种针对可控性事故的符合我国煤矿生产安全管理实践的煤矿事故致因机理,即由于煤矿生产系统中人、设备、环境的缺陷导致的不安全情况,在管理缺陷或信息缺陷下,导致煤矿事故发生,经过应急救援后,形成了事故的最终损失。
第二,针对我国煤矿地质条件的复杂情况,提出了我国煤矿工业系统具有复杂性、动态变化性、变化模糊性和随机性及应急救援和灾害事故处理任务艰巨三大特征,并阐释了以“安全第一,预防为主”为生产方针的煤矿安全评价的重要价值；此外,通过对目前研究状况的分析,发现煤矿安全指标体系的构建和优选尚缺乏统一的标准和方法,根据大多数学者自己的经验,指标体系的确定遵循一定原则会造成主观性过强,无法反映客观的存在,容易出现偏差。层次分析法、德尔菲法及模糊评价法同样很难避免这一弊端；采用主成分分析、变异系数法、神经网络法等统计方法要建立在大容量样本的基础上,然后多数情况下大容量样本是不可获得的。本文在分析各方法的优势和弊端之后,提出基于信息熵法的指标筛选方法,利用该方法进行煤矿安全评价初始指标体系的优化选择。
第三,对模糊神经网络的概念及优势进行了阐释,提出了模糊神经网络实现的原理,具体包括输入层、模糊化层、隐含层、输出层及去模糊化层等5个层次；对定性指标根据相应的规定进行了划分,提出了采用德尔菲法进行量化；并进行了实证分析,可以看出模糊神经网络模型在煤矿安全评价中的优势,结合模糊理论和神经网络技术的模糊神经网络模型既具有学习、联系和自适应能力,又具有模糊思维,可以使得评价结果更具有客观性,仅仅通过对已知样本的学习,就可以获得专家思维,然后可以直接用训练好的网络来仿真待评价样本,降低了评价中的人为因素；同时,利用网络训练求出相应的权重后,即可知道哪些因素对煤矿安全程度影响较大,哪些因素比较重要,从而确定煤矿安全管理的重点。
第四,界定了煤矿事故预警的内涵;给出了BP神经网络和遗传算法的煤矿安全预警评估方法,BP神经网络具有很好的自学习、自适应、并行处理和进行非线性计算的能力,因此在智能控制、非线性优化、信号处理等方面取得了广泛的应用。遗传算法是一种基于自然选择和基因遗传学原理的随机搜索优化方法,具有很强的全局优化能力。因此将两者有机结合起来,用后者对前者的权值和阈值进行优化,可以使网络具有更快的收敛速度,这样,既发挥了神经网络的泛化映射能力,又避免了陷入局部极小的问题,并通过遗传算法优化神经网络权值和阈值建立煤矿事故预警模型;结合义马煤业集团的实际情况对构建的事故预警模型进行应用,发现GA-BP与BP神经网络相比具有更好的预测精度和更快的收敛速度,得出了遗传算法优化BP神经网络是可行的、有效的。
第五,从预警分析和预控对策两方面实现煤矿事故预警管理工作,并在此基础上,形成了从企业各职能管理部门到安全预警中心各部分的工作流程。预警分析包括监测、识别、诊断及预警评估四个方面;预控对策包括组织准备、日常监控和应急管理三方面的内容。煤矿企业各职能管理部门向安全预警中心定期上报运营管理诊断状态报表,并详细说明所采取的预控措施和所取得的效果。安全预警中心对预警指标进行实时监测,当监测结果处于正常状态时,继续监测：当监测结果显示警戒状态时,通过预控对策库采取合适措施进行纠正；当监测结果显示危机状态时,立即成立危机管理小组实施救援工作,直到生产系统转危为安,到达正常工作状态,并将处理危机采取的措施反馈到对策库中,经过长期积累,事故预警管理系统达到很强的免疫能力。此外,安全预警中心还要负责整个煤矿企业工作的组织、指挥和协调,对各部门的预警工作进行定期检查和总结。
另外,给出了从有效和失效两角度启动相应的煤矿预警管理系统及应急管理状态,提出了合理有效的煤矿事故预警管理系统运转模式。煤矿预警管理系统的运转应围绕着“人-机-环-管-信息”开展其活动。对致灾因素预警管理会产生两种结果：有效的预警管理使生产系统转危为安,此时生产系统可以继续运行;失效的预警管理应启动应急措施,此时生产系统停止运行进入调整阶段。在应急管理状态下,通过实施及时正确的预控对策可以促使生产系统恢复到正常生产状态,失败的后果可能发生重大或重特大事故。无论企业是由危险状态还是由应急管理状态转入正常生产状态,其发生的过程和结果参数都将反馈于预警管理系统中的信息库和对策库中,如此可以合理调整和优化下一周期过程中的预警活动。依照煤矿事故预警管理理论所提出的原理可知,预警管理包括对安全管理失误、生产管理波动、重大危险进行监测、识别、诊断、评价、预控等。
第六,从正式制度和非正式制度两方面提供对策建议,进一步完善我国煤矿安全生产管理保障体系。正式制度,作为社会制度的主流,具有强制性的特点,其为非正式制度的建设提供了条件。国家及煤矿企业通过正式制度对煤矿安全生产管理进行协调管制,主要有3个方面：完善煤矿安全生产标准体系、加大煤矿安全生产投入和加强应急救援保障措施。正式制度离不开法律法规的规定,加大其执行力度,为煤矿安全生产管理营造健康发展的环境。正式制度的安排也应结合各地具体情况进行调整和再界定,需要各地政府对相关规定进行合理变通和灵活处置。非正式制度,虽不能代替正式制度,但也是制度不可分割的一部分,是一种具有自发性、非强制性、连续性和广泛性等特点用以规范行业的行为准则,与正式制度形成互补和谐的关系,它并非使用法律法规等强硬手段来实现,其依靠的是行为准则、道德传统等柔性手段。本章从加强煤矿安全技术培训、加强煤矿安全宣传及文化建设、加强国内外安全技术交流合作和加强信息化建设四个方面来阐述煤矿安全生产管理的非正式制度安排。
正式制度为非正式制度的建设提供了基础,非正式制度弥补正式制度的不足。正式制度虽具有强制性但也离不开非正式制度,非正式制度虽然弥补了不足,但其缺乏成文的规定,无法约束煤矿企业的安全生产行为。要想促进煤矿安全生产管理,离不开两种制度的建设,而且两种制度目的统一方能有效。另外制度不是一成不变的,与时俱进才能促进煤矿安全可持续发展。
论文的主要创新体现在：
(1)提出了适合我国的煤矿事故致因机理。本文在借鉴事故致因理论的基础上,通过对煤矿事故形成原因的归纳分类,将其分为人的因子、设备因子、环境因子、管理因子、信息因子等5大类,并对危险因子的作用方式进行比较分析,探讨各因子间相互作用路径及事故发生演化规律,提出了煤矿事故致因机理的逻辑框架,并以此作为构建煤矿安全评价指标体系的理论框架。
(2)建立了“人-机-环-管-信息”评估指标模型。从现有研究看,大多数学者根据事故致因理论“人-机-环”指标评估体系,这一体系缺少对安全信息管理的考量。从我国煤矿信息化管理现状看,加强信息安全管理显得尤为重要和迫切。因此,本文将人、机、环、管、信息等要素相结合,同时考虑人员、设备、环境、管理以及信息缺陷可能造成的问题和结果,建立更为全面的评估指标体系模型,具有一定的创新价值。利用信息熵法对煤矿安全评价指标体系进行优化。指标体系是否合理会直接影响到评价结果的准确性,通过指标筛选方法的对比研究,本文选择了较为客观的信息熵法对指标体系进行了优化。结合模糊理论和神经网络模型,构建了模糊神经网络模型。通过模糊理论和神经网络技术的有机结合,利用了两个理论各自的优点,同时避免了它们的缺陷,为煤矿生产这种复杂系统的安全现状评价提出了一种新的思路。
(3)构建了基于遗传算法优化的煤矿安全神经网络预警模型。从现有煤矿安全预警方法看,模糊综合评价、层次分析、灰色关联分析方法都是学者关注的方法。但是这些方法往往主观性过程,并直接导致评估结果的不确定性增加以及模糊性的增加。本文将神经网络模型运用到煤矿安全预警模型的构建,同时兼顾遗传算法的优点,使神经网络模型具有较强的学习能力和较快的收敛性,具有一定创新性。
Coal is an important basic energy in our country, and occupies an important strategic position in the national economy. Coal mine safety production is directly related to economic construction in long-term sustainable development and the implementation of the energy strategy,and plays a decisive role in building a moderately prosperous society and modernization construction. Therefore,we must attach great importance to coal mine safety production,to ensure the coal industry sustained, stable and healthy.
In recent years,China has developed a series of policies and measures to strengthen mine safety management efforts. As in2010,total of2045small coal mines closed for they didn't have the conditions for safe production in China. Under the guidance of national policy, although the total amount of coal mine accidents decreased, one million tons mortality rate dropped from5.07in2001to0.564in2011,but it is far cry compared with the international advanced countries, such as the U.S.2004-2006one million tons coal mortality was only0.027,0.021and0.045. China is one of countries which have the highest frequency of mine casualties and the largest number of casualties around the world. In addition, the rapid development of network communicaton technology, computing technology and other technologies put forward higher requirements on the safety management of coal mining enterprises,and coal mining enterprises need to take full use of modern technology to speed up the construction of information technology to enhance the safety management level, thus to build a "high-information, automated, high-efficiency"digital mine. IT and higy-tech advances in digital technology for the construction of coal mines to provide a theoretical basis and technical support. Through this research, it helps to identify the cause of coal mine accident hazards, improves the level of safety production and management.
In order to analyze the deep-seated reasons of coal mine safety accidents,grasp the main factors affecting safety in production,evaluate the standards of coal mine safety production, and promote the improve of coal mine safety production situation. This thesis combines the characteristics of coal mine safety production,and uses modern and advanced scientific theroretical methods for coal mine safety production activities for dynamic monitoring and early warning,to build a warning index system of coal mine safety and warning model in real-time monitoring and correction,so as to provide theoretical support and technical support for preventing and reducing coal mine accidents. The main conclusions of this thesis include:
First,based on the define of security incidents related,and propose causal correction accident,accident consequences randomness,irreparable consequences of accidents and human controllability of four characteristics; based on the existing coal mine accident causation theory, analyses the five categories of coal mine accident factors:management factors, human factors, equipment factors,environmental factors and information factors,we propose an accident causing mechanism for a controllable incidents and compliance of coal mine safety production management practice,that is, since the human mine production systems,equipment and the environment caused by defects in an unsafe condition, with the defect in information and management, resulting in coal mine accident,after emergency rescue, formed the eventual loss of the accident.
Second, for the complex geological conditions of coal mine situation, this thesis puts forward that coal industry system has a complex,dynamic variability,change fuzziness and randomness,and emergency rescue and arduous handing task of disaster incident three characteristics,and explains the significant value of coal mine safety assessment based on the principle of "safety is important,prevcaution goes first"; Moreover,through analysis of the situation for the present study found that mine safety indicator system and preferably lack of uniform standards and methods,according to most scholars own experience,indicators follow certain principles to cause subjectivity is too strong, can not reflect the objective existence prone to bias. AHP, Delphi and fuzzy evaluation method are also difficult to avoid the drawbacks; using principal component analysis,the coefficient of variation method,neural networks and other statistical methods should be established on the basis of a large sample volume, large capacity and in most cases the sample can not be obtained. This thesis analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of each method, then proposes method based on information entropy index screening methods, the use of this method for coal mine safety assessment index system to optimize the initial selection.
Third, this thesis explains the concept and advantages of fuzzy neural network,and puts forward the principle of fuzzy neural networks, specifically including input layer, fuzzy layer, hidden layer and output layer and defuzzification layer these five levels; Divide the qualitative indicators according to the corresponding provisions, and using the Delphi method to quanify; and empirical analysis,fuzzy neural network model can be seen in the coal mine safety assessment advantages,combined fuzzy theory and neural network technology, fuzzy neural network model both with learning,communication and adaptive capacity,but also has fuzzy thinking, you can make a more objective evaluation results resistance, a sample of known only by the study,it can get expert thinking, then the trained network can be directly used to simulate a sample to be evaluated, reducing human factors of evaluation; same time, using the appropriate network training, the weights obtained, you can know which factors influenced the degree of mine safety, what factors are important to determine the coal mine safety management focus.
Fourth, this thesis defines the meaning of coal mine accident warning; gives a BP neural network and genetic algorithm mine safety waring assessement methods,BP neural network has good self-learning,adaptive, nonlinear parallel processing and computing power,so in intelligent control,nonlinear optimization, signal processing,and achieved a wide range of applications. Genetic algorithm is based on the principle of natural selection and genetics random search optimization method, has a strong global optimization capability. So combine the two, with the latter on the former weights and thresholds tuning,you can make the network has a faster convergence rate, so that not only played a neural network generalization mapping ability,but also avoid falling into local pole small problems,and through genetic algorithm optimization neural network weights and thresholds established coal mine accident warning model; combining the actual situation on the Yima Coal Group Stock CO.,LTD apply the accident early warning model, and found that GA-BP and BP neural network has better prediction accuracy and faster convergence,obtained genetic algorithm to optimize BP neural network is feasible and effective.
Fifth, this thesis from early waring analysis and pre-control measures to achieve coal mine accidents early warning management,and on this basis,form the workflow of various functions of management to security warning center. Warning analysis includes monitorin, identification,diagnosis and warning assessment four aspects; pre-control measures includes organizational readiness, daily monitoring and emergency management three aspects. Various functional management departments of coal mining enterprises report regularly to the Security Warning Center operations management diagnostic status reports, and details of the pre-control measures taken and the results obtained. Safety warning center for real-time monitoring of early waring indicators, when monitoring results in a normal state,continue to monitor; when monitoring results indicate the alert of the stage, take appropriate measures through the pre-control measures library to rectify; When monitoring results indicate a state of crisis, establish immediately the Crisis Management Team to implement the rescue work until the production system pull through reachi a normal operating state. The measures taken to deal with crisis countermeasures feedback to the library,and through a long-term accumulation, accident warning management system achieves a strong immunity. In addition, the security warning centers are also responsible for the work of the entire coal mining enterprises organizing, directing and coordinating, and conduct regular checks and summary fo various department.
In addition,this thesis gives the effective and failure of two angles to launch the appropriate management systems and mine waring state emergency management,and proposes the reasonable and effective coal mine accidents warning management system operating mode. Mine warning management system should be running around the "man-machine-environment-management-information" to carry out its activities. Warning management of causal factors will produce two results:an effective warning management of production system turned the corner, then the production system can continue to run; Failure warning management should be initiated emergency measures to stop the run into the adjustment phase. In the state of emergency management, through the implementation of timely and correct pre-control measures can promote the production system to return to normal production status, but the consequences of failure may cause significant of serious accidents. Whether enterprises are run by the state of crisis or emergency management into normal production status, the process and results of its occurrence parameters will feedback the database and countermeasure library of warning management system, so it is reasonable to adjust and optimize the process of the next cycle che early warning activities. Coal mine accident warning in accordance with the proposed principles of management theory shows that earl warning management including safety management failures,fluctuations in production management, mjor hazard monitoring, identification, diagnosis,evaluation, pre-control and so on.
Sixth,this thesis provides both countermeasures and suggestions to further improve China coal mine production safety management security system based on the formal and informal institutions. Formal system,as the mainstream of social systems,mandatory features, which is an informal system construction provided the conditions. Country and coal mining enterprises conduct coordination control through formal system of coal mine safety production management,there are three areas:improving mine safety production standards,increase investment and strengthen coal mine production safety emergency rescue safeguards. Formal system of laws and regulations can not be separated, to increase its enforcement, create a healthy environment for the development of the coal mine safety production management. Formal institutional arrangements should also be combined with the specific circumstances around to adjust and re-defined, local governments need to make reasonable modifications to the relevant fixed and flexible disposition. Informal system, although not a substitute for the formal system, but it is also an integral part of the system, is a kind of spontaneous,non-mandatory, continuity and universality characteristics of conduct to regulate the industry,complementary harmony with the formal system relationship, it is not hard to use legal means to achieve such, it relies on the code of conduct, moral traditions and other flexible means. This informal institutional arrangemients consists:strengthen mine safety technical training,strengthen publicity and cultural construction of coal mine safety,strengthen exchanges and cooperation with foreign security technologies and strengthen information technology.
Formal system provides the basis for the construction of the informal system, and an informal system to make up for the lack of formal institutions. The formal system is mandatory but inseparable from the informal system,the informal system,although insufficient to make up, but lack of documented requirements,can not constrain coal mine safety and production behavior.
To promote coal mine safety production management,it is inseparable from the construction of the two systems, and the two systems can only effective unity of purpose. Besides system is not static, only with the times can promote sustainable development of coal mine safety.
The main innovation is reflected in the thesis:
(1) Propose for the coal mine accident causation mechanism. This thesis based on the drawing on accident causation theory,categorizes the reason formation of coal mine accidents into human factors,equipment factors,environmental factors,management factors and information factors of five aspects, and compare and analysis the role of risk factors to explore the interaction between various factors and accident evolution path proposed mechanism of cola mine accident causation logical framework, and as the theoretical framework of evaluation index system of coal mine safety.
(2) Establish a "man-machine-environment-management-information" evaluation index model. From the existing research,the majority of scholars,according to accident causation theory "man-machine-environment" index evaluation system, the lack of security information management system considerations. From our present situation mine information management, strengthen information security management is particularly important and urgent. Therefore, this thesis combines people,machines,environment,management, information and other elements, taking into account the personnel, equipment, environment, management, and information problems and defects that may cause results to establish a more comprehensive assessment index system model, with some the value of innovation. Optimize the coal mine safety evaluation index system by using the information entropy method. The reasonable of indicator system will directly affect the accuracy of the evaluation results,through the comparative study of indicators of screening methods, this thesis choose a more objective information entropy method to optimize the index system.Combine with fuzzy theory and neural network model to construct fuzzy neural network model. The technology combine of fuzzy theory and neural network, the use of their respective advantages of the two theories, while avoiding their defects, presents a new way of thinking.For mine production safety evaluation of complex systems
(3) Construct network prediction model of coal mine safety based on genetic algorithm optimization neural. From the existing ways of coal mine safety warning, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, AHP, gray relational analysis methods are concerned approach. However, these methods are often subjective process, and directly led to increased uncertainty assessment results as well as an increase in ambiguity. This neural network model applied to the construction of coal mine safety warning model, taking into account the advantages of genetic algorithm, so neural network model has a strong learning ability and fast convergence, has a certain innovation.
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