潮河流域土地利用/气候变化的水文响应研究
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摘要
气候变化加剧以及人类活动增强对华北地区水环境和水资源的影响越来越大。在气候变化背景下,探索土地利用和覆被变化的生态水文响应,构建合理的土地利用方式,对科学开展流域水土资源利用、生态恢复和适应性流域管理具有重要意义。该研究以密云水库以上潮河流域为研究对象,通过研究流域土地利用变化和气候变异下的水文响应特性,旨在为改善华北地区水量与水体的适应性流域管理提供理论依据。该研究应用非参数秩检验法对研究流域的1961-2009年水文气象数据进行趋势分析和突变检验；结合流域不同时期土地利用数据,分别应用水量平衡原理与线性回归分析方法,定量评价土地利用和气候变化对径流量和输沙量变化的贡献；采用SWAT分布式水文模型模拟计算不同土地利用和气候变化情景下的流域径流量和输沙量的变化。主要结果如下：
(1)流域内1979-2009年间土地利用变化主要特征为：有林地、灌木林地持续增加；草地面积持续减少；建筑面积增加,耕地面积减少。土地利用的主要转移趋势为草地转为灌木林和有林地,灌木林地转为有林地,耕地转为草地。流域内政策因素及剧烈的人类活动如退耕还林和生态修复措施等的实施是推动流域内土地利用变化的关键因素。
(2)1961-2009年流域气候因素和产流产沙变化趋势分析和突变检验表明：该流域年、汛期和非汛期径流在1961-2009年间均呈显著减少趋势,并都在1999年发生突变,但年与汛期降水和潜在蒸散发在此期间没有显著变化,而非汛期的降水和潜在蒸散发均显著增加,并分别在1979年和1987年发生突变。年和汛期产沙量都显著减少,并且均于2004年发生突变。分析表明该流域气候和土地利用变化对年径流减少的贡献率分别为43.9%和56.1%,而对年产沙量减少的贡献分别是4.2%和95.8%。土地利用变化是导致该流域年径流量减少,特别是年产沙量减少的重要原因。
(3)用SWAT模型模拟潮河流域径流和产沙具有良好的适用性。SWAT模型模拟结果表明,研究流域内径流深的空间分布呈现从东南向西北逐次减少分布,并随海拔的升高逐次减少,这主要由降雨的空间分布规律决定。另外土地利用方式不同也是导致流域径流深空间分布差异的重要因素。输沙率的空间分布较为复杂,主要受到降水、地形和土地利用方式影响。
(4)极端土地利用情景分析结果表明：不同极端土地利用情景下的径流量曲线变化趋势一致,但值的大小差异显著,具体表现为灌木林地>草地>林地>耕地。与1999年土地利用的结果相比较,灌木林地情景下径流增加了158.2%,草地情景下径流增加了4.1%。耕地和林地情景下径流分别减少41.7%和23.7%。不同极端土地利用情景下的年产沙量大小表现为：耕地>草地>灌木林地>林地。对比1999年土地利用的年产沙量,耕地情景下年均产沙量增加85.9%,而草地、灌木林地和林地极端情景下年均产沙量分别减少32.1%、45.4%和57.0%。
(5)不同的气候变异情景模拟结果显示,径流对降水的变化敏感性高于对温度变化的敏感性。降水每增加10%,径流平均增加23.9%。温度每增加1℃,径流平均减少6%。输沙对降水的敏感度高于径流对降水变化的敏感性。降水每增加10%,输沙量平均增加44%。
(6)潮河流域作为北京地表水资源密云水库的的主要来源地,增加流域产流且和减少流域产沙是潮流流域管理的目标。结合极端土地利用情景模拟结果和流域土地利用地形分异规律,设计流域内土地利用空间优化情景并模拟其径流和产沙,结果表明：空间优化配置情景下,流域内的耕地和有林地面积减少,灌木林和草地面积增加；相对于1999年原地类,流域的年均径流深增加了34.54%,输沙模数减少了14.16%。空间优化配置情境下,年均径流深空间分布除受到降水的空间分布影响外,局部微地形和土地利用变化对其影响增加。输沙模数的空间分布表明径流是输沙模数变化最敏感的因素。
Intensive climate changes and human activities have increasing effects on water environment and water resource in Northern China. Going with climate changes, it is important to carry on reasonable land use for utilization of water and soil resource, ecological restoration and adaptive watershed management. In this study, we analyzed hydrological responses of land use change and climate variability in Chaohe watershed located in up Miyun Reservoir. Results of the study can be theoretical basis for improving water quantity and quality by using adaptive watershed management in Northern China. The trend of the time series (1961-2009) and change points of climate in terms of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) and annual, wet season, and dry season streamflow of Chaohe watershed were examined by using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test. In addition, we analyzed the changes of land use over the period. A method based on water balance was used to quantify the respective contribution of land use and climate changes to mean annual streamflows. Linear regression model was used to examine their effects on sediment yield reduction. Under different scenarios of climate variabilities and landuse changes, SWAT model was used to simulate and predict their effects on water yield and sediment yield. The main results are as follows:
(1) From 1979 to 2009, the typical characters of land use changes were that woodland, shrubland and urban increased rapidly while grassland and farmland decreased in Chaohe watershed. Grasslands transferred to scrublands and woodlands; scrublands transferred to woodlands; farmlands were transferred to grasslands. Different policies and intensive human activities such as Grain for Green and ecological restoration lead to land use changes.
(2) By using Mann-Kendll test and change point test for climate, streamflow and sediment yield in Chaohe watershed, results showed that:there were no significant changes in annual and wet season precipitation and PET from 1961 to 2009. In contrast, the annual and wet season streamflow decreased significantly from 1961 to 2009 with the change points occurred in 1999. In dry season, streamflow declined significantly going with precipitation and PET increasing significantly, and change points happened in 1999,1979 and 1987 respectively. Annual and wet season sediment yield both declined significantly and changed point occurred in 2004. It was estimated the land use/cover change contributed for 56.1% reduction in mean annual streamflow, while the rest was explained by climate variability. Land use changes overtook 95.8% of reduction for the declining of annual sediment yield. We concluded that the effect of land use change on reduction of water resources and sediment yield outweighed that from climate variability.
(3) SWAT model can be suitable for use in Chaohe watershed. The simulated results of SWAT model showed that runoff depth gradually declined from southeast to northwest, meantime higher elevation, less runoff. Spatial distribution of runoff depth was mainly decided by spatial distribution of precipitation. In addition, land use played an important role on spatial distribution of runoff depth. Spatial distribution of sediment yield mainly has been affected by precipitation, terrain and land use.
(4) Under extreme scenarios of land use, the value of runoff of different land use followed the order of shrub land>grassland>woodland>farmland. Compared with land use in 1999, shrub land and grassland could increase 158.2% and 4.1% runoff, respectively, when farmland and woodland declined runoff 41.7% and 23.7%, respectively. Under extreme scenarios of land use, annual sediment yield followed the order of farmland>grassland>shrub land> woodland. Compared with land use of 1999, farmland increased sediment yield 85.9%, while grassland, shrubland and woodland decreased sediment yield 32.1%,45.4% and 57.0%, respectively.
(5) The simulated results of scenarios of climate variability on water and sediment yield showed that runoff was more sensitive to precipitation than to temperature. Precipitation increased 10% while runoff increased 23.9%. But 1℃increase of temperature lead to 6% reduction of runoff. Sediment yield was more sensitive to precipitation than runoff to precipitation. Precipitation increased 10% while sediment yield increased 44%。
(6)The aim of watershed management is to supply more water and control soil erosion in Chaohe watershed as a water resource field for Miyun Reservoir, so we designed spatial optimized land use scenario based on extreme scenarios and characters of land use with different terrain. Compared with landuse of 1999, both farmland area and woodland area decreased in optimized scenario, when shrubland and grassland increased. Results of runoff depth and sediment concentration in optimized scenario showed that runoff depth increased 34.54% while sediment concentration declined 14.16%. Besides precipitation, both land use and terrain affected the distribution of runoff depth. Runoff played a domain effect on the distribution of sediment concentration in research watershed.
(1)流域内1979-2009年间土地利用变化主要特征为：有林地、灌木林地持续增加；草地面积持续减少；建筑面积增加,耕地面积减少。土地利用的主要转移趋势为草地转为灌木林和有林地,灌木林地转为有林地,耕地转为草地。流域内政策因素及剧烈的人类活动如退耕还林和生态修复措施等的实施是推动流域内土地利用变化的关键因素。
(2)1961-2009年流域气候因素和产流产沙变化趋势分析和突变检验表明：该流域年、汛期和非汛期径流在1961-2009年间均呈显著减少趋势,并都在1999年发生突变,但年与汛期降水和潜在蒸散发在此期间没有显著变化,而非汛期的降水和潜在蒸散发均显著增加,并分别在1979年和1987年发生突变。年和汛期产沙量都显著减少,并且均于2004年发生突变。分析表明该流域气候和土地利用变化对年径流减少的贡献率分别为43.9%和56.1%,而对年产沙量减少的贡献分别是4.2%和95.8%。土地利用变化是导致该流域年径流量减少,特别是年产沙量减少的重要原因。
(3)用SWAT模型模拟潮河流域径流和产沙具有良好的适用性。SWAT模型模拟结果表明,研究流域内径流深的空间分布呈现从东南向西北逐次减少分布,并随海拔的升高逐次减少,这主要由降雨的空间分布规律决定。另外土地利用方式不同也是导致流域径流深空间分布差异的重要因素。输沙率的空间分布较为复杂,主要受到降水、地形和土地利用方式影响。
(4)极端土地利用情景分析结果表明：不同极端土地利用情景下的径流量曲线变化趋势一致,但值的大小差异显著,具体表现为灌木林地>草地>林地>耕地。与1999年土地利用的结果相比较,灌木林地情景下径流增加了158.2%,草地情景下径流增加了4.1%。耕地和林地情景下径流分别减少41.7%和23.7%。不同极端土地利用情景下的年产沙量大小表现为：耕地>草地>灌木林地>林地。对比1999年土地利用的年产沙量,耕地情景下年均产沙量增加85.9%,而草地、灌木林地和林地极端情景下年均产沙量分别减少32.1%、45.4%和57.0%。
(5)不同的气候变异情景模拟结果显示,径流对降水的变化敏感性高于对温度变化的敏感性。降水每增加10%,径流平均增加23.9%。温度每增加1℃,径流平均减少6%。输沙对降水的敏感度高于径流对降水变化的敏感性。降水每增加10%,输沙量平均增加44%。
(6)潮河流域作为北京地表水资源密云水库的的主要来源地,增加流域产流且和减少流域产沙是潮流流域管理的目标。结合极端土地利用情景模拟结果和流域土地利用地形分异规律,设计流域内土地利用空间优化情景并模拟其径流和产沙,结果表明：空间优化配置情景下,流域内的耕地和有林地面积减少,灌木林和草地面积增加；相对于1999年原地类,流域的年均径流深增加了34.54%,输沙模数减少了14.16%。空间优化配置情境下,年均径流深空间分布除受到降水的空间分布影响外,局部微地形和土地利用变化对其影响增加。输沙模数的空间分布表明径流是输沙模数变化最敏感的因素。
Intensive climate changes and human activities have increasing effects on water environment and water resource in Northern China. Going with climate changes, it is important to carry on reasonable land use for utilization of water and soil resource, ecological restoration and adaptive watershed management. In this study, we analyzed hydrological responses of land use change and climate variability in Chaohe watershed located in up Miyun Reservoir. Results of the study can be theoretical basis for improving water quantity and quality by using adaptive watershed management in Northern China. The trend of the time series (1961-2009) and change points of climate in terms of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) and annual, wet season, and dry season streamflow of Chaohe watershed were examined by using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test. In addition, we analyzed the changes of land use over the period. A method based on water balance was used to quantify the respective contribution of land use and climate changes to mean annual streamflows. Linear regression model was used to examine their effects on sediment yield reduction. Under different scenarios of climate variabilities and landuse changes, SWAT model was used to simulate and predict their effects on water yield and sediment yield. The main results are as follows:
(1) From 1979 to 2009, the typical characters of land use changes were that woodland, shrubland and urban increased rapidly while grassland and farmland decreased in Chaohe watershed. Grasslands transferred to scrublands and woodlands; scrublands transferred to woodlands; farmlands were transferred to grasslands. Different policies and intensive human activities such as Grain for Green and ecological restoration lead to land use changes.
(2) By using Mann-Kendll test and change point test for climate, streamflow and sediment yield in Chaohe watershed, results showed that:there were no significant changes in annual and wet season precipitation and PET from 1961 to 2009. In contrast, the annual and wet season streamflow decreased significantly from 1961 to 2009 with the change points occurred in 1999. In dry season, streamflow declined significantly going with precipitation and PET increasing significantly, and change points happened in 1999,1979 and 1987 respectively. Annual and wet season sediment yield both declined significantly and changed point occurred in 2004. It was estimated the land use/cover change contributed for 56.1% reduction in mean annual streamflow, while the rest was explained by climate variability. Land use changes overtook 95.8% of reduction for the declining of annual sediment yield. We concluded that the effect of land use change on reduction of water resources and sediment yield outweighed that from climate variability.
(3) SWAT model can be suitable for use in Chaohe watershed. The simulated results of SWAT model showed that runoff depth gradually declined from southeast to northwest, meantime higher elevation, less runoff. Spatial distribution of runoff depth was mainly decided by spatial distribution of precipitation. In addition, land use played an important role on spatial distribution of runoff depth. Spatial distribution of sediment yield mainly has been affected by precipitation, terrain and land use.
(4) Under extreme scenarios of land use, the value of runoff of different land use followed the order of shrub land>grassland>woodland>farmland. Compared with land use in 1999, shrub land and grassland could increase 158.2% and 4.1% runoff, respectively, when farmland and woodland declined runoff 41.7% and 23.7%, respectively. Under extreme scenarios of land use, annual sediment yield followed the order of farmland>grassland>shrub land> woodland. Compared with land use of 1999, farmland increased sediment yield 85.9%, while grassland, shrubland and woodland decreased sediment yield 32.1%,45.4% and 57.0%, respectively.
(5) The simulated results of scenarios of climate variability on water and sediment yield showed that runoff was more sensitive to precipitation than to temperature. Precipitation increased 10% while runoff increased 23.9%. But 1℃increase of temperature lead to 6% reduction of runoff. Sediment yield was more sensitive to precipitation than runoff to precipitation. Precipitation increased 10% while sediment yield increased 44%。
(6)The aim of watershed management is to supply more water and control soil erosion in Chaohe watershed as a water resource field for Miyun Reservoir, so we designed spatial optimized land use scenario based on extreme scenarios and characters of land use with different terrain. Compared with landuse of 1999, both farmland area and woodland area decreased in optimized scenario, when shrubland and grassland increased. Results of runoff depth and sediment concentration in optimized scenario showed that runoff depth increased 34.54% while sediment concentration declined 14.16%. Besides precipitation, both land use and terrain affected the distribution of runoff depth. Runoff played a domain effect on the distribution of sediment concentration in research watershed.
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