低碳经济与中国出口贸易的关系研究
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摘要
2009年12月7-18日,哥本哈根世界气候大会,即《联合国气候变化框架公约》第15次缔约方会议暨《京都议定书》第5次缔约方会议在丹麦首都哥本哈根召开。这是继《京都议定书》后又一具有划时代意义的全球气候协议书,它标志着后京都时代的国际减排机制相关架构即将确立,低碳经济正在向我们走近,这对中国来说既是一次严峻的挑战,又是一次难得的机遇。改革开放以来,在人口总量增加、经济持续发展、居民生活能源消费不断提高的情况下,我国的二氧化碳排放量急剧上涨,2002年已成为仅次于美国的世界第二大碳排放国。另外,同期的出口贸易扩张再次加剧了二氧化碳的排放。由此可见,发展低碳经济刻不容缓。然而,发展低碳经济对我国的出口贸易将产生怎样的影响?各种减排机制是如何影响我国出口产品的比较优势和国际竞争力的?适合我国低碳经济发展的最优减排方案又是什么?这是本文将要研究的问题。
本文通过规范分析和实证分析相结合的方法,一方面,整合发展低碳经济的相关概念和理论,分析中国碳排放现状和碳排放的影响因素,给予我国低碳经济发展相应的理论和数据支持,并进一步深入探讨减排规制对国际贸易影响的理论传导机制；另一方面,借助协整分析、格兰杰因果关系以及投入产出模型,解析碳排放与出口贸易的相关关系,测算国际贸易中的隐含碳。在此基础上,综合各种减排规制,尤其是碳税对我国二氧化碳排放及出口贸易的影响,得出：1978-2007年,中国的碳排放和出口贸易之间存在着长期均衡和短期波动关系,出口贸易扩大是碳排放增加的格兰杰因果原因；短期内,减排成本以要素投入量的形式进入产品的生产成本,从而增加企业的生产成本,削弱一国的比较优势和产品竞争力。然而,从长期动态效应来看,减排规制却可能会刺激企业的技术创新,增加出口产品的国际竞争力；借鉴丹麦的碳税经验,我国应该进一步研究和完善环境税制,确定合理的较低的碳税税率,并运用碳税的“双重红利”效应,与碳排放权交易互补实行,从而达到最优的减排效果。
The 15th contracting party conference for UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) was held in Copenhagen during December 7th-18th,2009. Following the Kyoto Protocol, it is another greatly significant agreement on the global climate, which implies that the international mechanism for carbon emission reduction is to be established in the post-Kyoto-Protocol era. As the low-carbon economy approaches, China is faced with not only a severe challenge but also a good opportunity. Since the economic reform, China's carbon dioxide emission has skyrocketed with the rapid growth in the population, economy and energy consumption. China has become the country second to US in carbon emission in 2002. Besides, the expansion of the export trade has aggravated the situation. Therefore, it is urgent for us to develop the low-carbon economy. Nevertheless, some questions remain to be answered:What is its influence on the China's export trade? In what way do the different emission reduction mechanisms affect the comparative advantage and the international competitiveness of China's export products? What is the most appropriate scheme for the China's carbon emission reduction?
With the methodology of theoretical and empirical analysis, this paper on the one hand gives the analysis on the situation and the determinants of China's carbon emission as well as the concept and theory related to the low-carbon economy, which supplies data and theory support in order to find out the theoretical transmission mechanism of the emission reduction regulations to the international trade; on the other hand, it analyzes the correlation between the carbon emission and the export trade as well as calculates the embodied carbon in the import and export with the help of cointegration, Granger causality and input-output model. By taking into account the effect of the carbon tax on the China's carbon dioxide emission and export trade, this paper leads to the following conclusions:
(1) From 1978 to 2007, there exists long-term equilibrium and short-term fluctuation in the correlation between China's carbon emission and export trade, and the export trade expansion is the Granger cause of the carbon emission growth;
(2) In the short run, emission reduction cost turns into the production cost in the form of factor input, thus increasing the producing cost and weakening the comparative advantage and the international competitiveness. In the long run, however, reduction regulations may encourage the technology innovation, which enhances the product competitiveness;
(3)Taking examples from Denmark, we are supposed to study and improve the environmental tax system, fix the appropriate carbon tax with a low rate, utilize the dual-dividend effect of carbon tax, and make the carbon tax system work together with the carbon emission permits trade in order to develop the low-carbon economy.
本文通过规范分析和实证分析相结合的方法,一方面,整合发展低碳经济的相关概念和理论,分析中国碳排放现状和碳排放的影响因素,给予我国低碳经济发展相应的理论和数据支持,并进一步深入探讨减排规制对国际贸易影响的理论传导机制；另一方面,借助协整分析、格兰杰因果关系以及投入产出模型,解析碳排放与出口贸易的相关关系,测算国际贸易中的隐含碳。在此基础上,综合各种减排规制,尤其是碳税对我国二氧化碳排放及出口贸易的影响,得出：1978-2007年,中国的碳排放和出口贸易之间存在着长期均衡和短期波动关系,出口贸易扩大是碳排放增加的格兰杰因果原因；短期内,减排成本以要素投入量的形式进入产品的生产成本,从而增加企业的生产成本,削弱一国的比较优势和产品竞争力。然而,从长期动态效应来看,减排规制却可能会刺激企业的技术创新,增加出口产品的国际竞争力；借鉴丹麦的碳税经验,我国应该进一步研究和完善环境税制,确定合理的较低的碳税税率,并运用碳税的“双重红利”效应,与碳排放权交易互补实行,从而达到最优的减排效果。
The 15th contracting party conference for UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) was held in Copenhagen during December 7th-18th,2009. Following the Kyoto Protocol, it is another greatly significant agreement on the global climate, which implies that the international mechanism for carbon emission reduction is to be established in the post-Kyoto-Protocol era. As the low-carbon economy approaches, China is faced with not only a severe challenge but also a good opportunity. Since the economic reform, China's carbon dioxide emission has skyrocketed with the rapid growth in the population, economy and energy consumption. China has become the country second to US in carbon emission in 2002. Besides, the expansion of the export trade has aggravated the situation. Therefore, it is urgent for us to develop the low-carbon economy. Nevertheless, some questions remain to be answered:What is its influence on the China's export trade? In what way do the different emission reduction mechanisms affect the comparative advantage and the international competitiveness of China's export products? What is the most appropriate scheme for the China's carbon emission reduction?
With the methodology of theoretical and empirical analysis, this paper on the one hand gives the analysis on the situation and the determinants of China's carbon emission as well as the concept and theory related to the low-carbon economy, which supplies data and theory support in order to find out the theoretical transmission mechanism of the emission reduction regulations to the international trade; on the other hand, it analyzes the correlation between the carbon emission and the export trade as well as calculates the embodied carbon in the import and export with the help of cointegration, Granger causality and input-output model. By taking into account the effect of the carbon tax on the China's carbon dioxide emission and export trade, this paper leads to the following conclusions:
(1) From 1978 to 2007, there exists long-term equilibrium and short-term fluctuation in the correlation between China's carbon emission and export trade, and the export trade expansion is the Granger cause of the carbon emission growth;
(2) In the short run, emission reduction cost turns into the production cost in the form of factor input, thus increasing the producing cost and weakening the comparative advantage and the international competitiveness. In the long run, however, reduction regulations may encourage the technology innovation, which enhances the product competitiveness;
(3)Taking examples from Denmark, we are supposed to study and improve the environmental tax system, fix the appropriate carbon tax with a low rate, utilize the dual-dividend effect of carbon tax, and make the carbon tax system work together with the carbon emission permits trade in order to develop the low-carbon economy.
引文
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2魏一鸣刘兰翠等《中国能源报告(2008)：碳排放研究》,2008：33.
3魏一鸣刘兰翠等《中国能源报告(2008)：碳排放研究》,2008：38-42.
4 Nordstrrm H,Vaughan S.Trade and Environment[M].Special Studies,WTO, Geneva,1999.
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4注：*东盟：包括文莱、印度尼西亚、马来西亚、菲律宾、新加坡、泰国、越南、老挝、缅甸、柬埔寨。**欧盟：2004年前包括比利时、丹麦、英国、德国、法国、爱尔兰、意大利、卢森堡、荷兰、希腊、葡萄牙、西班牙、奥地利、芬兰、瑞典。自2004年5月起,增加塞浦路斯、匈牙利、马耳他、波兰、爱沙尼亚、拉脱维亚、立陶宛、斯洛文尼亚、捷克、斯洛伐克。自2007年1月起,增加罗马尼亚、保加利亚。
8刘强,庄幸,姜克隽,韩文科.中国出口贸易中的载能量及碳排放量分析[J].中国工业经济,2008(8).
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12 马中.环境与自然资源经济学概论[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2006.
13魏一鸣刘兰翠等《中国能源报告(2008)：碳排放研究》,2008：135-142.
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2魏一鸣刘兰翠等《中国能源报告(2008)：碳排放研究》,2008：33.
3魏一鸣刘兰翠等《中国能源报告(2008)：碳排放研究》,2008：38-42.
4 Nordstrrm H,Vaughan S.Trade and Environment[M].Special Studies,WTO, Geneva,1999.
5 OECD.Economic Globalization and the Environment[M].Paris:OECD, 1997.
6 Jones T. Economic globalization and the environment:all overview of the linkages[A]. In OECD.Globalization and the Environment:Perspectives from OECD and Dynamic Non·Member Economies[C].Paris,OECD,1998.1-100.
4注：*东盟：包括文莱、印度尼西亚、马来西亚、菲律宾、新加坡、泰国、越南、老挝、缅甸、柬埔寨。**欧盟：2004年前包括比利时、丹麦、英国、德国、法国、爱尔兰、意大利、卢森堡、荷兰、希腊、葡萄牙、西班牙、奥地利、芬兰、瑞典。自2004年5月起,增加塞浦路斯、匈牙利、马耳他、波兰、爱沙尼亚、拉脱维亚、立陶宛、斯洛文尼亚、捷克、斯洛伐克。自2007年1月起,增加罗马尼亚、保加利亚。
8刘强,庄幸,姜克隽,韩文科.中国出口贸易中的载能量及碳排放量分析[J].中国工业经济,2008(8).
9杨会民.中国进出口贸易隐含碳的计算与影响因素结构分析研究[Dl.天津：天津大学,2009.
10 Chapman P R.Energy Costs:A review of methods[J].Energy Policy,1974,2(2):91-103.
11 Leontief W. Environmental repercussions and the economic structure:an input—output approach[J].Review of Economics Statistics,1970,52(3):262-271.
12 马中.环境与自然资源经济学概论[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2006.
13魏一鸣刘兰翠等《中国能源报告(2008)：碳排放研究》,2008：135-142.
[1]Ahmad, N., A. Wyckoff. Carbon Dioxide Emissions Embodied in International Trade of Goods [M]. OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers. OECD Publishing,2003.
[2]Christoph Bohringer. Carbon taxes with exemptions in an open economy:A General Equilibrium Analysis of the German [J]. Journal of Environmental, Economics and Management,1997, 32:189-203.
[3]Chapman P R. Energy Costs:A review of methods [J]. Energy Policy,1974,2(2):91-103.
[4]Dixon, P. B. and B. R. Parmenter, General Equilibrium Modeling for Policy Analysis and Forecasting. In H. Amman, D. Kendrick, and J. Rust (eds), Handbook of Computational Economics. Amsterdam:North-Holland,2-85,1996.
[5]Jones T. Economic globalization and the environment:all overview of the linkages[A]. In: OECD. Globalization and the Environment:Perspectives from OECD and Dynamic Non ·Member Economies[C]. Paris, OECD,1998.1-100.
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