基于Malmquist指数与多边形图示法的勘察设计行业评价研究
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摘要
勘察设计行业是知识密集型、技术密集型的生产性服务业，在固定资产形成的过程中起着主导作用，对国民经济发展的起着十分重要的作用。随着我国投资体制的改革的深入，勘察设计行业获得了空前的繁荣和发展，无论是从业人数、营业收入，还是行业的营业利润都有了很大的提升。但是我国的勘察设计行业也存在着空间发展不平衡、行业发展效率偏低、行业集中度仍然不高，依靠国家投资规模扩大获得行业总规模的扩展的粗放式发展模式等问题，整体核心竞争力与欧美等发达国家相比存在较大的差距。因此，迫切需要对勘察设计行业的发展环境和效率提升途径进行深入研究，找出制约行业发展效率提高以及整体竞争力提升的因素研究，提出未来行业发展模式。
本文使用生产效率分析理论中的马奎斯特全要素生产效率指数理论、参数化随机前沿分析法、因子分析法、全排列多边形图示指标法和copula函数，结合定性分析与定量计算，对中国勘察设计行业的效率极其影响因素进行了深入研究，并对勘察设计行业未来发展进行预测，主要取得了以下成果：
首先，对影响中国勘察设计行业发展的宏观经济环境、国内投资环境、勘察设计市场竞争情况进行了分析。再运用传统产业经济学的SCP分析范式，通过计算行业市场集中度对勘察设计行业的市场结构进行了分析定位，并对影响勘察设计行业市场结构的主要因素包括：行业集中度、行业进入退出壁垒、产品差异化、市场需求的价格弹性以及市场需求的发展逐一进行了剖析。并运用波特五种竞争力模型分析了勘察设计行业的市场竞争情况，提出了有针对性的行业发展政策建议。
其次，基于传统的投入产出效率评价理论和生产函数理论，根据勘察设计行业的特点，建立了以资本、人力、固定资产为投入要素，以营业收入、企业利润和专利发明为产出要素的行业效率评价体系，运用中国31个省、市、自治区2006-2011年面板数据，计算出各地区分年的马奎斯特全要素生产效率变化趋势，并分析了整个行业在时间和空间上投入产出效率的演进历程，分析效率变化的原因，提出提高行业效率的途径。
同时，采用随机前沿带非技术效率项的SFA模型，分别考虑反映市场容量、专业化水平、市场化水平等特征技术无效函数，对中国31个省市自治区的勘察设计行业技术效率进行测度，并对影响技术效率技术无效函数的估计结果进行分析，解析其影响机理，更深入全面地掌握该行业的技术效率发展规律、地区差异。
最后，运用因子分析法建立中国各地区勘察设计行业核心竞争力评价指标体系,采用改进的全排列多边形图示指标法对全国31各省区数据进行实证分析。采用基于Copula预测方法预测中国勘察设计行业未来发展指标以及各省市行业效率。论文结尾提出了本文的不足和今后研究的方向。
The survey and design industry, as a knowledge-intensive andtechnology-intensive producer service industry and a leading industry for theformation of the fixed assets, plays a very important role in the development of thenational economy. With the deepening of reform in the field of investment in China,the survey and design industry has been gaining prosperity and development, bothfrom industry scale and industry concentration, and the industry's overall efficiencyhas been greatly improved. However, the development of the survey and designindustry in China is uneven among provinces. The efficiency of the development ofthe industry is still very low, and the concentration of the industry is still not high.The industry’s development relies much on the expansion of the scale of investment.Compared to Europe, the United States and other developed countries, there has beena long way to catch up with the overall core competitiveness of those countries forChina. Therefore, there is an urgent need to conduct in-depth analysis of theenvironment for the development of the survey and design industry to identify thefactors restricting development efficiency as well as enhance the overallcompetitiveness study, in the future development of the industry.
The productivity analysis, Malmquist index theory for total factor productivity,parametric statistical method-Stochastic Frontier Analysis, Factor Analysis, full–array-polygon method, combined with other qualitative analysis and quantitativecalculation, were used to carry out an in-depth study and predict the relationshipbetween economic development and environmental quality survey and designindustry. The following results were obtained:
First, the macro-economic environment for the development of the survey anddesign industry, the domestic investment environment and the market competitionwere analyzed. Following the method of SCP model which was often used forindustry analysis by traditional scholars of industrial economics, the industryconcentration from year2006to year2011of survey and design industry in Chinawas calculated, and was compared with the concentration of other industries in chinaand American’s survey and design industry.Thus the structure of the market of survey and design industry in China was deduced and the factors that decide the marketstructure of indurstry including: concetration, entry and exit barriers, productdifferentiation, the market price elasticity of demand as well as market demand wereanalyzed respectively. Porter’s five competitive forces model was used to analyze themarket competition of survey and design industry, and advice on the policy forindustry development was recommended.
Secondly, based on the traditional input-output efficiency evaluation theory,according to the characteristics of the survey and design industry, the input and outputelements system for the efficiency evaluation system was established. And the paneldata from2006-2011of input-output of engineering survey and design industry in31provinces of China were analyzed by Malmquist-DEA approach. The results showedthat: during the period, there was a spatial difference on the productivity efficiencyamong31provinces of China. The TFP fluctuated with the country's economicdevelopment and policy adjustments by time. To improve the TFP of engineeringsurvey and design industry, more importantly, efforts to support technologicalprogress and pending and pure efficiency should be made in addition to improvementof industry scale efficiency.
At the same time, the SFA model which covers the considering of inefficiencyfactors that influence the technical efficiency, including market capacity, professionallevel, marketing level was applied to conduct a more in-depth and comprehensivestudy on the efficiency of the survey and design industry. The laws about thedevelopment of efficiency of the survey and design industry were explored by a moreexclusive analysis using The Battese and Coelli (1995) Specification.
Finally, to establish Chinese regional survey and design industry corecompetitiveness evaluation index system, the factor analysis (FA) method was used.And an improved full array polygon approach was applied to empirical analysis. TheCopula based prediction method was used to predict the efficiency of variousdevelopment indicators in2012of provincial survey and design industry.
本文使用生产效率分析理论中的马奎斯特全要素生产效率指数理论、参数化随机前沿分析法、因子分析法、全排列多边形图示指标法和copula函数，结合定性分析与定量计算，对中国勘察设计行业的效率极其影响因素进行了深入研究，并对勘察设计行业未来发展进行预测，主要取得了以下成果：
首先，对影响中国勘察设计行业发展的宏观经济环境、国内投资环境、勘察设计市场竞争情况进行了分析。再运用传统产业经济学的SCP分析范式，通过计算行业市场集中度对勘察设计行业的市场结构进行了分析定位，并对影响勘察设计行业市场结构的主要因素包括：行业集中度、行业进入退出壁垒、产品差异化、市场需求的价格弹性以及市场需求的发展逐一进行了剖析。并运用波特五种竞争力模型分析了勘察设计行业的市场竞争情况，提出了有针对性的行业发展政策建议。
其次，基于传统的投入产出效率评价理论和生产函数理论，根据勘察设计行业的特点，建立了以资本、人力、固定资产为投入要素，以营业收入、企业利润和专利发明为产出要素的行业效率评价体系，运用中国31个省、市、自治区2006-2011年面板数据，计算出各地区分年的马奎斯特全要素生产效率变化趋势，并分析了整个行业在时间和空间上投入产出效率的演进历程，分析效率变化的原因，提出提高行业效率的途径。
同时，采用随机前沿带非技术效率项的SFA模型，分别考虑反映市场容量、专业化水平、市场化水平等特征技术无效函数，对中国31个省市自治区的勘察设计行业技术效率进行测度，并对影响技术效率技术无效函数的估计结果进行分析，解析其影响机理，更深入全面地掌握该行业的技术效率发展规律、地区差异。
最后，运用因子分析法建立中国各地区勘察设计行业核心竞争力评价指标体系,采用改进的全排列多边形图示指标法对全国31各省区数据进行实证分析。采用基于Copula预测方法预测中国勘察设计行业未来发展指标以及各省市行业效率。论文结尾提出了本文的不足和今后研究的方向。
The survey and design industry, as a knowledge-intensive andtechnology-intensive producer service industry and a leading industry for theformation of the fixed assets, plays a very important role in the development of thenational economy. With the deepening of reform in the field of investment in China,the survey and design industry has been gaining prosperity and development, bothfrom industry scale and industry concentration, and the industry's overall efficiencyhas been greatly improved. However, the development of the survey and designindustry in China is uneven among provinces. The efficiency of the development ofthe industry is still very low, and the concentration of the industry is still not high.The industry’s development relies much on the expansion of the scale of investment.Compared to Europe, the United States and other developed countries, there has beena long way to catch up with the overall core competitiveness of those countries forChina. Therefore, there is an urgent need to conduct in-depth analysis of theenvironment for the development of the survey and design industry to identify thefactors restricting development efficiency as well as enhance the overallcompetitiveness study, in the future development of the industry.
The productivity analysis, Malmquist index theory for total factor productivity,parametric statistical method-Stochastic Frontier Analysis, Factor Analysis, full–array-polygon method, combined with other qualitative analysis and quantitativecalculation, were used to carry out an in-depth study and predict the relationshipbetween economic development and environmental quality survey and designindustry. The following results were obtained:
First, the macro-economic environment for the development of the survey anddesign industry, the domestic investment environment and the market competitionwere analyzed. Following the method of SCP model which was often used forindustry analysis by traditional scholars of industrial economics, the industryconcentration from year2006to year2011of survey and design industry in Chinawas calculated, and was compared with the concentration of other industries in chinaand American’s survey and design industry.Thus the structure of the market of survey and design industry in China was deduced and the factors that decide the marketstructure of indurstry including: concetration, entry and exit barriers, productdifferentiation, the market price elasticity of demand as well as market demand wereanalyzed respectively. Porter’s five competitive forces model was used to analyze themarket competition of survey and design industry, and advice on the policy forindustry development was recommended.
Secondly, based on the traditional input-output efficiency evaluation theory,according to the characteristics of the survey and design industry, the input and outputelements system for the efficiency evaluation system was established. And the paneldata from2006-2011of input-output of engineering survey and design industry in31provinces of China were analyzed by Malmquist-DEA approach. The results showedthat: during the period, there was a spatial difference on the productivity efficiencyamong31provinces of China. The TFP fluctuated with the country's economicdevelopment and policy adjustments by time. To improve the TFP of engineeringsurvey and design industry, more importantly, efforts to support technologicalprogress and pending and pure efficiency should be made in addition to improvementof industry scale efficiency.
At the same time, the SFA model which covers the considering of inefficiencyfactors that influence the technical efficiency, including market capacity, professionallevel, marketing level was applied to conduct a more in-depth and comprehensivestudy on the efficiency of the survey and design industry. The laws about thedevelopment of efficiency of the survey and design industry were explored by a moreexclusive analysis using The Battese and Coelli (1995) Specification.
Finally, to establish Chinese regional survey and design industry corecompetitiveness evaluation index system, the factor analysis (FA) method was used.And an improved full array polygon approach was applied to empirical analysis. TheCopula based prediction method was used to predict the efficiency of variousdevelopment indicators in2012of provincial survey and design industry.
引文
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