食物链氮素养分流动评价研究
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摘要
N素是动植物的必需元素之一,它通过不同载体的形式沿着食物链的方向流动,其管理好坏直接关系到“人口-资源-环境-粮食安全”等重大问题。长期高投入高产出的农业生产方式,使食物链养分效率不高,环境问题突出。因此,分析食物链养分流动的特征和规律,评价其合理性,是非常必要的。本文采用物质流分析方法,利用食物链N素养分流动模型(CNFC),系统分析了黄淮海不同地区(北京市、天津市、河北省、河南省、山东省)食物链N素养分流动状况。在此基础上,构建了食物链N素养分流动评价指标体系;结合模型计算结果以及层次分析方法(AHP),对黄淮海不同地区食物链N素养分流动的合理性进行定量化评价。主要结果如下:
1.黄淮海地区食物链N素流量较大,养分流动呈塔型分布,其中以农田生产系统N素养分流量最高,家庭消费系统最少,畜牧生产系统居中。农田生产系统养分盈余数量较高,1988年～2007年间盈余最高时达到320.4万t。化肥N是农田主要的N养分投入形式,2007年该地区化肥N投入达到752.0万t,而籽粒N产量仅为449.1万t,农田N环境排放为426.3万t;黄淮海地区饲料N的自给率呈现逐年下降的趋势,外地调入饲料N逐年增加;而本地饲料粮N逐渐成为本地饲料主要来源;家庭消费系统动植物食品N在完全满足自给的同时,有大量的食品N调出,其中动物性食品N外地调出数量呈现逐年增加的趋势,而植物性食品N调出逐年减少。黄淮海地区食物链N素养分流动系统属于高投入、低产出、环境排放较高的系统,并且属于饲料N调入地区,动植物食品N属于调出区域。
2.黄淮海三省两市地区食物链N素养分流动合理性指数(S)历年表现为下降的趋势,S都在0.70以下,并因地区而异。2007年与1988年相比,北京市、天津市、河北省、河南省以及山东省合理性指数分别下降了0.34、0.37、0.15、0.27、0.38。由于经济发展水平和农业生产情况不同,各地区亚系统养分流动合理性随年代变化存在差异,其中农田生产系统(S1)、家庭消费系统(S3)以及系统之间(S4)合理性指数都在下降,而畜牧生产系统(S2)合理性指数在增加。
3.城镇化水平、经济发展水平以及人均收入水平等都与食物链N素养分流动合理性指数(S)存在着极显著的负相关关系,三种因素与食物链氮素养分流动合理性是不相适应的。
4.各地区食物链N素养分流动合理性(S)对养分利用、环境排放、废弃物循环等指标变化反应的敏感性不同。总体来看,家庭消费系统效率指标、环境指标以及废弃物循环利用指标的变化对S的影响最高,其次是畜牧生产系统,农田生产系统最小;不同指标比较,废弃物N养分循环利用指标变化对S的影响最大,其次是环境指标,效率指标对S的影响最小;同时改变效率和环境指标,家庭消费系统S受影响最大,而农田生产系统和畜牧生产系统较小。应针对不同的系统以及不同的指标的特点,构建提高食物链N素养分合理性的综合措施。
Nitrogen, one of the important components of protein, is also an important nutrient for plant growing and animals. Nitrogen management quality is directly related to the "population-resources-environment-food security" and other major issues. Long term’s high nitrogen input in agriculture production system cause lower nutrient efficiency and serious environment problem. Therefore, it is necessary to analyses nitrogen flow in food chain system, evaluate the reasonableness of nitrogen flow. Based on method of Material Flow Analysis (MFA), we adopted nitrogen flow model in the food chain in China (CNFC) to analyse the status of nitrogen flow in different regions (Beijing Municipality, Tianjin Municipality, Hebei Province, Henan Province, and Shandong Province) of the Huang–Huai–Hai. Considering the relationship of resources, environment, efficiency, and other factors, The indicators of nitrogen flow in food chain were selected to built evaluation framework of nitrogen flow in food chain system; Combining the results of model calculations as well as the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), the quantitative evaluation of nitrogen flow in food chain was obtained in different regions of the Huang– Huai– Hai. The results showed that:
1. There was a great nitrogen flux in Huang–Huai–Hai region and nitrogen flow was tower-type distribution in food chain system, which was the highest nitrogen flux in agriculture production system, household consumption system least, and livestock production system in the middle. And nitrogen surplus in agriculture production system was very high, and the highest surplus achieves 32.04 M t. by the year of 2003. Synthesis nitrogen was the major input in agriculture production system and synthesis nitrogen input reached 75.19 M t in 2007, but grain nitrogen yield was 44.91 M t only. However, nitrogen emission into the environment was significantly higher than that of farmland surplus. Close to grain N yield, nitrogen emission into the environment was totally 42.63 M t. And nitrogen flow in livestock production system, the self-sufficiency rate of feed nitrogen showed a downward trend year by year, but feed nitrogen import increases yearly. Local feed grain nitrogen became main feed nitrogen input now. And in household consumption system, fauna and flora food nitrogen could meet self-sufficiency completely; and at the same time, there was a lot of food nitrogen exported, in which fauna food nitrogen showed an increasing trend year by year, but flora food nitrogen had a decreasing trend. And Fauna and flora food nitrogen exported 6.41, 2.82 M t in Huang–Huai–Hai Region in 2007. So, nitrogen flow in food chain in Huang-Huai-Hai region was high input, low production output, high environment emission system, and net imports in feed nitrogen and net export in fauna and flora food nitrogen.
2. Rationality indices (S) in five regions of Huang–Huai–Hai had shown decline in varying degrees over the years, of which rationality indices were all less than 0.7 and different regions had different changes. Compared with 1988, rationality indices decreased by 0.34, 0.37, 0.15, 0.27 and 0.38 respectively in 2007. And because of their level of economic development and different agricultural production levels, nitrogen flow rationality indices in different sub-systems in different regions had difference with the year change, of which rationality indices in agricultural production systems (S1), household consumption systems (S3) and system betweens (S4) were all on the decline over the time, but livestock production systems (S2) was all reasonable increasing in different regions.
3. Analyzing external factors of impact of rationality indices of N flow in food chain can be seen: there were very significant negative correlations between rationality indices of nitrogen flow in food chain (S) and level of urbanization, economic development and per capita income respectively.
4. Analysis of main nitrogen flow indicators change in different systems to the impact of rationality index sensitivity in food chain can be seen: different systems in different regions had different impact of S. From a whole, it had been found that efficiency indicator, environmental indicator and waste recycling indicator of household consumption system had the highest effect on the S, followed by livestock production systems, and agricultural production system was the smallest. Compared different indicators, it had been found that waste recycling indicators changes in different sub-systems had high effects on S, environmental indicator the second and efficiency indicators the third. If enhancing efficiency indicator 5 percentages and environmental indicator 5 percentages in sub-systems at the same time (indicated by△S), it could been found that household consumption system had the highest effect on S. Instead of efficiency indicator and environmental indicator in agricultural production system and livestock production system, which all had less effects on S. Therefore, focus on different indicators of different systems, taking different measures to optimize systems or indicators sensitive to S was an important way to enhance rationality indices of nitrogen flow in food chain system.
1.黄淮海地区食物链N素流量较大,养分流动呈塔型分布,其中以农田生产系统N素养分流量最高,家庭消费系统最少,畜牧生产系统居中。农田生产系统养分盈余数量较高,1988年～2007年间盈余最高时达到320.4万t。化肥N是农田主要的N养分投入形式,2007年该地区化肥N投入达到752.0万t,而籽粒N产量仅为449.1万t,农田N环境排放为426.3万t;黄淮海地区饲料N的自给率呈现逐年下降的趋势,外地调入饲料N逐年增加;而本地饲料粮N逐渐成为本地饲料主要来源;家庭消费系统动植物食品N在完全满足自给的同时,有大量的食品N调出,其中动物性食品N外地调出数量呈现逐年增加的趋势,而植物性食品N调出逐年减少。黄淮海地区食物链N素养分流动系统属于高投入、低产出、环境排放较高的系统,并且属于饲料N调入地区,动植物食品N属于调出区域。
2.黄淮海三省两市地区食物链N素养分流动合理性指数(S)历年表现为下降的趋势,S都在0.70以下,并因地区而异。2007年与1988年相比,北京市、天津市、河北省、河南省以及山东省合理性指数分别下降了0.34、0.37、0.15、0.27、0.38。由于经济发展水平和农业生产情况不同,各地区亚系统养分流动合理性随年代变化存在差异,其中农田生产系统(S1)、家庭消费系统(S3)以及系统之间(S4)合理性指数都在下降,而畜牧生产系统(S2)合理性指数在增加。
3.城镇化水平、经济发展水平以及人均收入水平等都与食物链N素养分流动合理性指数(S)存在着极显著的负相关关系,三种因素与食物链氮素养分流动合理性是不相适应的。
4.各地区食物链N素养分流动合理性(S)对养分利用、环境排放、废弃物循环等指标变化反应的敏感性不同。总体来看,家庭消费系统效率指标、环境指标以及废弃物循环利用指标的变化对S的影响最高,其次是畜牧生产系统,农田生产系统最小;不同指标比较,废弃物N养分循环利用指标变化对S的影响最大,其次是环境指标,效率指标对S的影响最小;同时改变效率和环境指标,家庭消费系统S受影响最大,而农田生产系统和畜牧生产系统较小。应针对不同的系统以及不同的指标的特点,构建提高食物链N素养分合理性的综合措施。
Nitrogen, one of the important components of protein, is also an important nutrient for plant growing and animals. Nitrogen management quality is directly related to the "population-resources-environment-food security" and other major issues. Long term’s high nitrogen input in agriculture production system cause lower nutrient efficiency and serious environment problem. Therefore, it is necessary to analyses nitrogen flow in food chain system, evaluate the reasonableness of nitrogen flow. Based on method of Material Flow Analysis (MFA), we adopted nitrogen flow model in the food chain in China (CNFC) to analyse the status of nitrogen flow in different regions (Beijing Municipality, Tianjin Municipality, Hebei Province, Henan Province, and Shandong Province) of the Huang–Huai–Hai. Considering the relationship of resources, environment, efficiency, and other factors, The indicators of nitrogen flow in food chain were selected to built evaluation framework of nitrogen flow in food chain system; Combining the results of model calculations as well as the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), the quantitative evaluation of nitrogen flow in food chain was obtained in different regions of the Huang– Huai– Hai. The results showed that:
1. There was a great nitrogen flux in Huang–Huai–Hai region and nitrogen flow was tower-type distribution in food chain system, which was the highest nitrogen flux in agriculture production system, household consumption system least, and livestock production system in the middle. And nitrogen surplus in agriculture production system was very high, and the highest surplus achieves 32.04 M t. by the year of 2003. Synthesis nitrogen was the major input in agriculture production system and synthesis nitrogen input reached 75.19 M t in 2007, but grain nitrogen yield was 44.91 M t only. However, nitrogen emission into the environment was significantly higher than that of farmland surplus. Close to grain N yield, nitrogen emission into the environment was totally 42.63 M t. And nitrogen flow in livestock production system, the self-sufficiency rate of feed nitrogen showed a downward trend year by year, but feed nitrogen import increases yearly. Local feed grain nitrogen became main feed nitrogen input now. And in household consumption system, fauna and flora food nitrogen could meet self-sufficiency completely; and at the same time, there was a lot of food nitrogen exported, in which fauna food nitrogen showed an increasing trend year by year, but flora food nitrogen had a decreasing trend. And Fauna and flora food nitrogen exported 6.41, 2.82 M t in Huang–Huai–Hai Region in 2007. So, nitrogen flow in food chain in Huang-Huai-Hai region was high input, low production output, high environment emission system, and net imports in feed nitrogen and net export in fauna and flora food nitrogen.
2. Rationality indices (S) in five regions of Huang–Huai–Hai had shown decline in varying degrees over the years, of which rationality indices were all less than 0.7 and different regions had different changes. Compared with 1988, rationality indices decreased by 0.34, 0.37, 0.15, 0.27 and 0.38 respectively in 2007. And because of their level of economic development and different agricultural production levels, nitrogen flow rationality indices in different sub-systems in different regions had difference with the year change, of which rationality indices in agricultural production systems (S1), household consumption systems (S3) and system betweens (S4) were all on the decline over the time, but livestock production systems (S2) was all reasonable increasing in different regions.
3. Analyzing external factors of impact of rationality indices of N flow in food chain can be seen: there were very significant negative correlations between rationality indices of nitrogen flow in food chain (S) and level of urbanization, economic development and per capita income respectively.
4. Analysis of main nitrogen flow indicators change in different systems to the impact of rationality index sensitivity in food chain can be seen: different systems in different regions had different impact of S. From a whole, it had been found that efficiency indicator, environmental indicator and waste recycling indicator of household consumption system had the highest effect on the S, followed by livestock production systems, and agricultural production system was the smallest. Compared different indicators, it had been found that waste recycling indicators changes in different sub-systems had high effects on S, environmental indicator the second and efficiency indicators the third. If enhancing efficiency indicator 5 percentages and environmental indicator 5 percentages in sub-systems at the same time (indicated by△S), it could been found that household consumption system had the highest effect on S. Instead of efficiency indicator and environmental indicator in agricultural production system and livestock production system, which all had less effects on S. Therefore, focus on different indicators of different systems, taking different measures to optimize systems or indicators sensitive to S was an important way to enhance rationality indices of nitrogen flow in food chain system.
引文
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