水环境约束下关中经济发展模式研究
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摘要
经济发展与水环境之间具有密切的关系。国内外学者已对经济发展与水环境之间的关系进行了大量研究,“环境库兹涅茨曲线”(倒U型曲线)理论是其中最为经典和重要的结果。但目前这类研究大都只是验证经济发展与水环境之间是否具有倒U型关系,并在此基础上进行相关讨论。对于二者之间更深层次的关系,还缺乏更深入的研究。环境全要素生产率是从经济发展模式的角度研究经济发展与环境之间的关系。我国的相关研究主要集中在全国范围、各省份、工业和农业方面,具体到市级的研究较少；此外根据相关研究结果,选取的非期望产出不同,计算出来的环境效率和环境全要素生产率值也存在差异,需要针对地区污染特点选取特定的污染物进行研究。关中水资源缺乏,但水污染问题比较严重,论文以关中为研究区,首先以西安市为例,在对水质指标和经济指标进行严格筛选及处理的基础上,提出了一种导数约束以减少经验关系式选择上的主观任意性,构建了西安市的水质-经济经验关系式,深入研究了其经济发展与水质之间的关系。基于西安建立经验关系式的方法和步骤,构建了铜川、宝鸡、咸阳、渭南的水质和水污染物排放量与经济的经验关系式。同时探讨在水环境约束下关中的经济发展模式,采用SBM方向性距离函数测算了关中五市1997-2011年的环境效率,基于SBM的ML指数测算了关中五市的环境全要素生产率,并在不同的市域间进行对比,用偏最小二乘回归(PLS)分析了对于经济发展模式的影响因素。本文的研究为经济发展与水环境关系的研究提供一种新的研究思路,具有重要的理论意义和科学意义；同时为制定关中经济和环境协调发展政策、促进关中经济的可持续发展提供科学依据,具有一定的应用价值。
论文主要研究结论可概括为以下几方面：
(1)首先构建了西安水质-经济经验关系式,基于西安建立水质-经济经验关系式的方法和步骤,构建了铜川、宝鸡、咸阳、渭南的水质和水污染物排放量与经济的经验关系式。并结合相应理论分析,论文认为水环境经济关系可以根据阻碍水环境恶化的作用与促进水环境恶化的作用的相对大小分成三类,当阻碍作用大于促进作用时,水环境指标随经济指标的增加迅速衰减；当阻碍作用与促进作用相互持平时,水环境指标随经济指标的增加先上升,到达峰值后再逐渐下降；当阻碍作用小于促进作用时,水环境指标随经济指标的增加呈震荡式衰减。
(2)选取劳动力、资本和能源为投入,国内生产总值为期望产出,化学需氧量和氨氮年排放量为非期望产出,测算了关中五市1997-2011年水环境约束下的效率,并进行了对比分析。对环境效率的纵向对比发现,随着时间的推移,对投入因素的利用率会越来越高,经济发展和环境保护达到了较高的协调程度。对环境效率的横向对比发现,西安和宝鸡的环境效率值为1,经济和环境关系比其它三市更为协调,其它三市环境效率值比较波动,铜川与其它城市差距最大。
(3)测算了关中五市水环境约束下的全要素生产率。纵向对比发现,除了个别年份外,五市的环境全要素生产率都是提升的,技术进步起了主要的推动作用；经过横向对比发现,五市中铜川的环境全要素生产率提升的最多,其技术进步也最为明显,可以认为铜川在城市经济转型期间取得了明显的成效。这五市的经济发展模式均从粗放逐渐转化为集约型。
(4)选取经济因素(人均GDP、二产比例、资本劳动比)、人口因素(人口密度)、环境因素(化学需氧量排放强度、氨氮排放强度、单位GDP电耗)和对外经济因素(进出口总额/GDP、外商直接投资/GDP)分析对于环境效率和环境全要素生产率在时间和地区间存在差异的影响。综合分析发现,氨氮排放对于环境效率和环境全要素生产率的影响力度超过了化学需氧量,其重要性越来越大；电力的使用所起的作用正在逐渐加大；资本深化促进管理创新和技术创新,有利于环境全要素生产率的提高；较高的经济发展水平有利于环境效率和环境全要素生产率的提升。
There is close relationship between economic development and water environment.A large amount of researches on the relationship between water environment and economic development have been carried out,in which "Environmental Kuznets curve"(inverse U-shaped curve) theory is a classic and important result.However, at present most of the studies only verified the inverted U-shaped relationship between the indicators of water environment and economy, in which the in-depth study and discussion lacked. Environmental total factor productivity reflects the relationship between economy and environment from economic development model. The researches mainly focus on national scope, the provinces, industry and agriculture in China. There is less research about municipal. And there are different environmental efficiency values due to the different undesirable outputs, so it is necessary to choose the specific pollutants to study environmental efficiency and Environmental total factor productivity according to the area. There is serious water pollution in Guanzhong. This dissertation took Guanzhong region as the study area. Here we select Xi'an as the representative area to study further the relationship between the quality of the water environment and economic development.On the basis of rigorous selecting and treatment for the water environmental indicators and economic indicators, a derivative constraint to reduce the arbitrary of the formulais presented, and the water quality-economic experiential formula of Xi'an is then constructed.For comparative analysis, the water quality-economic experiential formulas ofTongchuan, Baoji,Xianyang and Weinanare constructed as well. We obtain the environmental efficiency and environmental total factor productivity value under water environment constraints, and discuss the influencing factors by PLS. Not only has important scientific significance for the study the relationship between the economic development and the water environment, but also has certain of application value. Themain conclusions can be summarized as the following:
(1)First we construct the water quality-economic experiential formulas of Xi'an. Based on the method and step, we construct the water quality-economic experiential formulas of Tongchuan,Baoji,Xianyang and Weinan.
(2) We choose labor, capital and energy as input, GDP as desirable output, the quantity of chemical oxygen demand and ammonia nitrogen emission as undesirable output. The environmental efficiency value under water environment constrainare calculated by using SBM. We find that the utilization of input will be higher with the time going on, and the relationship of economic development and water environment achieve a high degree of balance. Also the environmental efficiency value of Xian and Baoji is1, the relationship of economic development and water environment of Xian and Baoji is much balance than three cities.
(3) We calculate the environmental total factor productivity under water environment constrain. The environmental total factor productivity values of five cities become larger with the time going on (except for a certain years); the technology improvement is the important factor. The environmental total factor productivity value of Tongchuan is the biggest in the five cities. The economic development models of the five cities change from extensive to intensive.
(4) We choose economic factor, populationfactor, environment factor and international economics to analysis the gap between the environmental efficiency and environmental total factor productivity of five cities. The results indicate that the quantity of ammonia nitrogen emissions becomes more and more important; capital deepening contributes to promote management innovation and technology innovation; the role of electric power is gradually increasing to environment protection; the high of economic development level benefits to the improvement of environmental efficiency and environmental total factor productivity.
论文主要研究结论可概括为以下几方面：
(1)首先构建了西安水质-经济经验关系式,基于西安建立水质-经济经验关系式的方法和步骤,构建了铜川、宝鸡、咸阳、渭南的水质和水污染物排放量与经济的经验关系式。并结合相应理论分析,论文认为水环境经济关系可以根据阻碍水环境恶化的作用与促进水环境恶化的作用的相对大小分成三类,当阻碍作用大于促进作用时,水环境指标随经济指标的增加迅速衰减；当阻碍作用与促进作用相互持平时,水环境指标随经济指标的增加先上升,到达峰值后再逐渐下降；当阻碍作用小于促进作用时,水环境指标随经济指标的增加呈震荡式衰减。
(2)选取劳动力、资本和能源为投入,国内生产总值为期望产出,化学需氧量和氨氮年排放量为非期望产出,测算了关中五市1997-2011年水环境约束下的效率,并进行了对比分析。对环境效率的纵向对比发现,随着时间的推移,对投入因素的利用率会越来越高,经济发展和环境保护达到了较高的协调程度。对环境效率的横向对比发现,西安和宝鸡的环境效率值为1,经济和环境关系比其它三市更为协调,其它三市环境效率值比较波动,铜川与其它城市差距最大。
(3)测算了关中五市水环境约束下的全要素生产率。纵向对比发现,除了个别年份外,五市的环境全要素生产率都是提升的,技术进步起了主要的推动作用；经过横向对比发现,五市中铜川的环境全要素生产率提升的最多,其技术进步也最为明显,可以认为铜川在城市经济转型期间取得了明显的成效。这五市的经济发展模式均从粗放逐渐转化为集约型。
(4)选取经济因素(人均GDP、二产比例、资本劳动比)、人口因素(人口密度)、环境因素(化学需氧量排放强度、氨氮排放强度、单位GDP电耗)和对外经济因素(进出口总额/GDP、外商直接投资/GDP)分析对于环境效率和环境全要素生产率在时间和地区间存在差异的影响。综合分析发现,氨氮排放对于环境效率和环境全要素生产率的影响力度超过了化学需氧量,其重要性越来越大；电力的使用所起的作用正在逐渐加大；资本深化促进管理创新和技术创新,有利于环境全要素生产率的提高；较高的经济发展水平有利于环境效率和环境全要素生产率的提升。
There is close relationship between economic development and water environment.A large amount of researches on the relationship between water environment and economic development have been carried out,in which "Environmental Kuznets curve"(inverse U-shaped curve) theory is a classic and important result.However, at present most of the studies only verified the inverted U-shaped relationship between the indicators of water environment and economy, in which the in-depth study and discussion lacked. Environmental total factor productivity reflects the relationship between economy and environment from economic development model. The researches mainly focus on national scope, the provinces, industry and agriculture in China. There is less research about municipal. And there are different environmental efficiency values due to the different undesirable outputs, so it is necessary to choose the specific pollutants to study environmental efficiency and Environmental total factor productivity according to the area. There is serious water pollution in Guanzhong. This dissertation took Guanzhong region as the study area. Here we select Xi'an as the representative area to study further the relationship between the quality of the water environment and economic development.On the basis of rigorous selecting and treatment for the water environmental indicators and economic indicators, a derivative constraint to reduce the arbitrary of the formulais presented, and the water quality-economic experiential formula of Xi'an is then constructed.For comparative analysis, the water quality-economic experiential formulas ofTongchuan, Baoji,Xianyang and Weinanare constructed as well. We obtain the environmental efficiency and environmental total factor productivity value under water environment constraints, and discuss the influencing factors by PLS. Not only has important scientific significance for the study the relationship between the economic development and the water environment, but also has certain of application value. Themain conclusions can be summarized as the following:
(1)First we construct the water quality-economic experiential formulas of Xi'an. Based on the method and step, we construct the water quality-economic experiential formulas of Tongchuan,Baoji,Xianyang and Weinan.
(2) We choose labor, capital and energy as input, GDP as desirable output, the quantity of chemical oxygen demand and ammonia nitrogen emission as undesirable output. The environmental efficiency value under water environment constrainare calculated by using SBM. We find that the utilization of input will be higher with the time going on, and the relationship of economic development and water environment achieve a high degree of balance. Also the environmental efficiency value of Xian and Baoji is1, the relationship of economic development and water environment of Xian and Baoji is much balance than three cities.
(3) We calculate the environmental total factor productivity under water environment constrain. The environmental total factor productivity values of five cities become larger with the time going on (except for a certain years); the technology improvement is the important factor. The environmental total factor productivity value of Tongchuan is the biggest in the five cities. The economic development models of the five cities change from extensive to intensive.
(4) We choose economic factor, populationfactor, environment factor and international economics to analysis the gap between the environmental efficiency and environmental total factor productivity of five cities. The results indicate that the quantity of ammonia nitrogen emissions becomes more and more important; capital deepening contributes to promote management innovation and technology innovation; the role of electric power is gradually increasing to environment protection; the high of economic development level benefits to the improvement of environmental efficiency and environmental total factor productivity.
引文
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