中国居民家庭消费信贷理论与实证研究
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摘要
随着对外开放程度的不断提高和中西方文化交流的逐渐深入，借钱消费的观念开始逐渐为中国家庭所接受；再加上金融市场的发展和住房等领域货币化改革进程的加快，消费信贷种类不断增加，覆盖范围逐渐扩大，越来越多的居民家庭正在参与到消费信贷当中来。国际经验表明，消费信贷在西方已经具有了悠久的发展历史，对于促进和鼓励家庭消费起到了非常明显的作用。此外，消费信贷市场的发育程度和居民的参与程度也是一国金融体系是否完善以及全面体现金融社会化程度的重要衡量标准。借鉴和吸收西方发达国家消费信贷发展的历史经验，同时正确认识和把握我国目前消费信贷的发展现状，对于加快我国消费信贷市场的进一步发展，刺激我国居民消费有着重要的现实意义。鉴于此，本文基于我国目前消费信贷市场发展状况，借鉴和吸收美日两国消费信贷发展经验，以我国居民家庭作为主要研究对象，分析和探讨消费信贷行为的特征及消费信贷对整体经济的影响，为消费信贷市场的未来发展提供政策依据。
在理论分析部分，本文在借鉴已有研究成果的基础上，从货币演进过程入手，分析不同货币形态下消费者消费信贷行为的发生以及对个人消费的影响。分析认为，在物物交换条件下和商品货币条件下，消费信贷行为能够促进消费者当期消费，同时能够提高两期消费的总体效用水平。随着货币形态从物物交换阶段进入到商品货币阶段，社会生产力和道德水平不断提高，社会对消费信贷行为的制度性保障不断增强，消费信贷行为发生的可能性将逐渐提高。在信用货币条件下，消费信贷市场完美程度越高，越能够推动当期消费，提高消费者跨期消费效用水平。
通过分别考察美国和日本消费信贷市场的发展状况，以及居民家庭的消费信贷行为之后可以发现，美日两国消费信贷市场发展较为成熟，提供消费信贷服务的金融组织形式和消费信贷种类较多，特别是消费金融公司的普遍存在为居民家庭享受金融服务提供了极大的便利。两国居民对消费金融公司具有较强的认可程度，同时对消费信贷的参与度也较高。另外，美日两国政府均构建了相对完善的监管体系，能够切实保护消费者权益不受到损害。与此同时，消费信贷市场的发展对于促进消费，推动经济发展也起到了十分显著的作用。
与美日两国相比，我国消费信贷市场发展十分缓慢，规模小、机构少、消费信贷产品单一是主要特点。中国消费信贷市场的正式出现，是以住房、教育等领域的货币化改革为大背景的。这些重大政策的出台对于居民家庭经济行为的变化起到重要的作用，因此中国消费信贷的发展具有显著的政策性推动效应。随着消费信贷观念在公众当中的不断深入，消费信贷市场在近年来开始迅速发展，诸如消费金融公司等现代金融组织形式开始进入中国消费信贷市场；提供的消费信贷种类也不断增加，更加贴近百姓生活需要；同时，以年轻消费者为代表的人群逐渐成为消费信贷服务的主要目标客户群。
在实证分析部分，本文首先利用家庭层面的微观调查数据，对消费信贷行为进行了实证分析。研究发现，住房按揭贷款对家庭消费结构具有显著影响：通过“挤压效应”，住房按揭贷款减少了家庭中低需求刚性消费项目的支出比重；通过“补偿效应”，住房按揭贷款激励家庭增加收入，用以弥补被“挤压”部分的消费支出项目。与此同时，家庭个体特征，包括家庭消费结构、家庭年龄结构、收入水平、家庭所在区域等特点均对消费信贷行为是否发生具有非常显著的影响。本文随后利用宏观经济数据检验了消费信贷发展的宏观经济效应，结果表明，中国消费信贷市场经过十余年的发展，消费信贷对于促进消费扩大内需具有显著的促进作用。未来中国消费信贷市场将迎来更为广阔的发展前景。
通过前文的研究可以发现，中国消费信贷市场的正式出现，是以住房、教育等刚性需求领域的货币化改革为大背景，因此居民家庭的消费信贷行为更多地表现出一种政策性推动效应。面对我国居民家庭消费信贷的现状，在未来的一段时期内，在继续大力发展消费信贷市场的同时，国家惠及民生的经济政策应当在相当一段时期内继续坚持实施，不断缓解居民家庭的后顾之忧，最终释放潜在的消费力。同时要继续开展消费金融公司等先进金融组织形式在中国的试点和运营，在丰富和完善我国目前的金融体系的同时，更加贴近百姓日常生活需求，保证家庭能够切实享受到金融服务对日常生活带来的便利。此外，随着消费信贷市场规模和覆盖面积的扩大，还要加强对消费者的金融教育，同时逐步完善对消费者金融服务方面的监督与保护。这样从多方面多角度调动和挖掘居民家庭的消费能力，实现扩大内需的既定目标。
With the extent of opening continuously improving and culture communicationbetween China and the Western gradually deepening, concept of consumption bycredit is increasingly getting received by China Household; and what’s more, with thedevelopment of financial market and the speeding-up of monetization reform processin housing and other fields, the kinds of consumer credit is continuously increasing,the coverage gradually expanding, and more and more households are gettinginvolved in consumer credit activity. The international experience shows thatconsumer credit has had a long history in western countries, which has played asignificant role in consumption promotion of household. In addition, It is also animportant measuring standard which embodies whether one country’s financialsystem is perfect and the extent of financial socialization that the extent of consumercredit market development and community participation. It is important practicalsignificance in accelerating the future development of consumer credit market inChina and stimulating household consumption that absorbing historical experience ofconsumer credit market in western developed countries and understanding correctlythe development status of consumer credit market in China. In view of this, based oncurrent status of consumer credit market in China, absorbed in experience of USA andJapan, taking China household as the main object, this paper analyzed and discussedthe characteristics of consumer credit and the impact on the whole economy, in orderto provide policy basis for future development of consumer credit market.
In section of theoretical analysis, based on the absorption of existing research,starting from the process of money evolution, the paper analyzed the occurrence ofperson’s consumer credit behavior and the impact on personal consumption indifferent money form. The analysis showed that, during the period of barter andcommodity money, consumer credit could promote personal consumption in currentperiod and enhance the total utility level of two periods. With the barter periodentering the period of commodity money, social productive forces and moral levelcontinuously improving, institutional security on consumer credit behavior constantly enhancing, the probability of occurrence of consumer behavior is gradually increasing.Under the condition of credit money, the more perfect the consumer credit market is,the more current consumption and inter-temporal consumption utility level will bepromoted.
After investigating the consumer credit market and household development ofUSA and Japan respectively, it is found that both markets has developed maturely,and existed many kinds of financial organization forms and consumer credit service,especially the universal existence of consumer finance company which provides greatconvenience for households enjoying financial service. The households in bothcountries recognized consumer finance company greatly and participate extensively.In addition, both governments have constructed relatively perfect supervision system,which could protect consumers benefit practically. At the same time, it is alsosignificant that the development of consumer credit market could promoteconsumption and economy development.
Compared with USA and Japan, the development of consumer credit market inChina is very slow, which is performed as small market scale, less financialorganization and single type of consumer credit products. The background of formalappearance of consumer credit market in China is the process of monetization reformin the fields of housing, education and others. The implementation of major policiesis very important for the change of economy behavior in household, so policypromoting effect is very significant in consumer credit development in China. Withthe concept of consumer credit continuously deepening, consumer credit marketbegan to develop fast in recent years. Modern financial organization forms such asconsumer finance company has entered China, which provided increasingly moreconsumer credit service and are more close to life needs of household. At the sametime, as the representative consumers, young people is gradually becoming the maintarget client groups.
In section of empirical analysis, first, this paper uses family survey data toanalyze the consumer credit behavior empirically. The results shows that housingmortgage loan affects household consumption structure significantly: the expenditureproportion in consumption with low demand rigidity is reduced by “Push-out Effect”; and the consumption which is “pushed out” could be made up in part by“Compensation Effect”, which is that the loan stimulates household to increaseincome for compensating consumption. At the same time, household individualcharacteristics, including consumption structure, age structure, income level andfamily region.etc, affect whether consumer credit behavior occurred significantly.Second, this paper uses macro economy data to test the macro economy effect causedby development of consumer credit. The results shows that with the more than10years development of consumer credit, consumer credit affects consumptionpromotion significantly. In future, consumer credit market in China will get a broaderprospect.
Previous chapters show that the background of formal appearance of consumercredit market in China is the process of monetization reform in the fields of housing,education and others, so policy promoting effect is very significant in consumer creditdevelopment. In future periods, faced by current status of household consumer credit,consumer credit market should be continued to develop greatly, at the same time,economic policies which benefits people’s livelihood from government should becarrying out during a long period of time in order to release pressures and potentialconsumption forces. And what’s more, it should be continued that advanced financialorganization forms such as consumer finance company are in operation testing inorder to enrich and improve our current financial system, and be more close topeople’s daily life needs, which will guarantee the real financial service enjoy ofconvenience on household. In addition, with the scale and coverage area of consumercredit market expanding, financial education on consumer should be strengthened,and supervision and protection on consumer finance service should be improvedgradually. Thus the capability of household consumption could be excavated fromevery aspect and the fixed target on expand domestic market demand will beachieved.
在理论分析部分，本文在借鉴已有研究成果的基础上，从货币演进过程入手，分析不同货币形态下消费者消费信贷行为的发生以及对个人消费的影响。分析认为，在物物交换条件下和商品货币条件下，消费信贷行为能够促进消费者当期消费，同时能够提高两期消费的总体效用水平。随着货币形态从物物交换阶段进入到商品货币阶段，社会生产力和道德水平不断提高，社会对消费信贷行为的制度性保障不断增强，消费信贷行为发生的可能性将逐渐提高。在信用货币条件下，消费信贷市场完美程度越高，越能够推动当期消费，提高消费者跨期消费效用水平。
通过分别考察美国和日本消费信贷市场的发展状况，以及居民家庭的消费信贷行为之后可以发现，美日两国消费信贷市场发展较为成熟，提供消费信贷服务的金融组织形式和消费信贷种类较多，特别是消费金融公司的普遍存在为居民家庭享受金融服务提供了极大的便利。两国居民对消费金融公司具有较强的认可程度，同时对消费信贷的参与度也较高。另外，美日两国政府均构建了相对完善的监管体系，能够切实保护消费者权益不受到损害。与此同时，消费信贷市场的发展对于促进消费，推动经济发展也起到了十分显著的作用。
与美日两国相比，我国消费信贷市场发展十分缓慢，规模小、机构少、消费信贷产品单一是主要特点。中国消费信贷市场的正式出现，是以住房、教育等领域的货币化改革为大背景的。这些重大政策的出台对于居民家庭经济行为的变化起到重要的作用，因此中国消费信贷的发展具有显著的政策性推动效应。随着消费信贷观念在公众当中的不断深入，消费信贷市场在近年来开始迅速发展，诸如消费金融公司等现代金融组织形式开始进入中国消费信贷市场；提供的消费信贷种类也不断增加，更加贴近百姓生活需要；同时，以年轻消费者为代表的人群逐渐成为消费信贷服务的主要目标客户群。
在实证分析部分，本文首先利用家庭层面的微观调查数据，对消费信贷行为进行了实证分析。研究发现，住房按揭贷款对家庭消费结构具有显著影响：通过“挤压效应”，住房按揭贷款减少了家庭中低需求刚性消费项目的支出比重；通过“补偿效应”，住房按揭贷款激励家庭增加收入，用以弥补被“挤压”部分的消费支出项目。与此同时，家庭个体特征，包括家庭消费结构、家庭年龄结构、收入水平、家庭所在区域等特点均对消费信贷行为是否发生具有非常显著的影响。本文随后利用宏观经济数据检验了消费信贷发展的宏观经济效应，结果表明，中国消费信贷市场经过十余年的发展，消费信贷对于促进消费扩大内需具有显著的促进作用。未来中国消费信贷市场将迎来更为广阔的发展前景。
通过前文的研究可以发现，中国消费信贷市场的正式出现，是以住房、教育等刚性需求领域的货币化改革为大背景，因此居民家庭的消费信贷行为更多地表现出一种政策性推动效应。面对我国居民家庭消费信贷的现状，在未来的一段时期内，在继续大力发展消费信贷市场的同时，国家惠及民生的经济政策应当在相当一段时期内继续坚持实施，不断缓解居民家庭的后顾之忧，最终释放潜在的消费力。同时要继续开展消费金融公司等先进金融组织形式在中国的试点和运营，在丰富和完善我国目前的金融体系的同时，更加贴近百姓日常生活需求，保证家庭能够切实享受到金融服务对日常生活带来的便利。此外，随着消费信贷市场规模和覆盖面积的扩大，还要加强对消费者的金融教育，同时逐步完善对消费者金融服务方面的监督与保护。这样从多方面多角度调动和挖掘居民家庭的消费能力，实现扩大内需的既定目标。
With the extent of opening continuously improving and culture communicationbetween China and the Western gradually deepening, concept of consumption bycredit is increasingly getting received by China Household; and what’s more, with thedevelopment of financial market and the speeding-up of monetization reform processin housing and other fields, the kinds of consumer credit is continuously increasing,the coverage gradually expanding, and more and more households are gettinginvolved in consumer credit activity. The international experience shows thatconsumer credit has had a long history in western countries, which has played asignificant role in consumption promotion of household. In addition, It is also animportant measuring standard which embodies whether one country’s financialsystem is perfect and the extent of financial socialization that the extent of consumercredit market development and community participation. It is important practicalsignificance in accelerating the future development of consumer credit market inChina and stimulating household consumption that absorbing historical experience ofconsumer credit market in western developed countries and understanding correctlythe development status of consumer credit market in China. In view of this, based oncurrent status of consumer credit market in China, absorbed in experience of USA andJapan, taking China household as the main object, this paper analyzed and discussedthe characteristics of consumer credit and the impact on the whole economy, in orderto provide policy basis for future development of consumer credit market.
In section of theoretical analysis, based on the absorption of existing research,starting from the process of money evolution, the paper analyzed the occurrence ofperson’s consumer credit behavior and the impact on personal consumption indifferent money form. The analysis showed that, during the period of barter andcommodity money, consumer credit could promote personal consumption in currentperiod and enhance the total utility level of two periods. With the barter periodentering the period of commodity money, social productive forces and moral levelcontinuously improving, institutional security on consumer credit behavior constantly enhancing, the probability of occurrence of consumer behavior is gradually increasing.Under the condition of credit money, the more perfect the consumer credit market is,the more current consumption and inter-temporal consumption utility level will bepromoted.
After investigating the consumer credit market and household development ofUSA and Japan respectively, it is found that both markets has developed maturely,and existed many kinds of financial organization forms and consumer credit service,especially the universal existence of consumer finance company which provides greatconvenience for households enjoying financial service. The households in bothcountries recognized consumer finance company greatly and participate extensively.In addition, both governments have constructed relatively perfect supervision system,which could protect consumers benefit practically. At the same time, it is alsosignificant that the development of consumer credit market could promoteconsumption and economy development.
Compared with USA and Japan, the development of consumer credit market inChina is very slow, which is performed as small market scale, less financialorganization and single type of consumer credit products. The background of formalappearance of consumer credit market in China is the process of monetization reformin the fields of housing, education and others. The implementation of major policiesis very important for the change of economy behavior in household, so policypromoting effect is very significant in consumer credit development in China. Withthe concept of consumer credit continuously deepening, consumer credit marketbegan to develop fast in recent years. Modern financial organization forms such asconsumer finance company has entered China, which provided increasingly moreconsumer credit service and are more close to life needs of household. At the sametime, as the representative consumers, young people is gradually becoming the maintarget client groups.
In section of empirical analysis, first, this paper uses family survey data toanalyze the consumer credit behavior empirically. The results shows that housingmortgage loan affects household consumption structure significantly: the expenditureproportion in consumption with low demand rigidity is reduced by “Push-out Effect”; and the consumption which is “pushed out” could be made up in part by“Compensation Effect”, which is that the loan stimulates household to increaseincome for compensating consumption. At the same time, household individualcharacteristics, including consumption structure, age structure, income level andfamily region.etc, affect whether consumer credit behavior occurred significantly.Second, this paper uses macro economy data to test the macro economy effect causedby development of consumer credit. The results shows that with the more than10years development of consumer credit, consumer credit affects consumptionpromotion significantly. In future, consumer credit market in China will get a broaderprospect.
Previous chapters show that the background of formal appearance of consumercredit market in China is the process of monetization reform in the fields of housing,education and others, so policy promoting effect is very significant in consumer creditdevelopment. In future periods, faced by current status of household consumer credit,consumer credit market should be continued to develop greatly, at the same time,economic policies which benefits people’s livelihood from government should becarrying out during a long period of time in order to release pressures and potentialconsumption forces. And what’s more, it should be continued that advanced financialorganization forms such as consumer finance company are in operation testing inorder to enrich and improve our current financial system, and be more close topeople’s daily life needs, which will guarantee the real financial service enjoy ofconvenience on household. In addition, with the scale and coverage area of consumercredit market expanding, financial education on consumer should be strengthened,and supervision and protection on consumer finance service should be improvedgradually. Thus the capability of household consumption could be excavated fromevery aspect and the fixed target on expand domestic market demand will beachieved.
引文
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④马克思.《资本论》（第三卷），人民出版社，2004年版，453页
⑤金德尔伯格.《西欧金融史》（第二版），中国金融出版社，2010年版，41页
⑥金德尔伯格.《西欧金融史》（第二版），中国金融出版社，2010年版，41页
①《日本消费信贷调研报告》，瞿强、魏丽，《金融发展评论》，2011年第2期。
①《中国资金流量表历史资料(1992-2004)》，国家统计局国民经济核算司、中国人民银行调查统计司编，中国统计出版社，2008年第一版。
①资料来源：《中国金融稳定报告(2011)》，中国金融出版社，29页。
①高铁梅.计量经济分析方法与建模——EViews应用及实例(第二版)[M].北京：清华大学出版社，2009年，118-120页.
①《应用数量经济学》，张晓峒著，机械工业出版社，2009年，363页，377页。
①课题组.美国金融消费者保护的经验教训[J].金融研究，2010(1)：197-206.
①数据来源：世界银行世界发展指数（WDI），转引自：陈斌开等，《户籍制约下的居民消费》，经济研究2010年增刊（消费金融研究专辑），63页。
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