陕西省果区气候变化及苹果花期冻害风险分析与区划
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摘要
果业在陕西发展迅猛,已成为支柱产业。2007年陕西省苹果种植面积730万亩,产量701万吨。苹果开花期的气象条件对当年苹果产量、品质具有决定性的意义。紧密围绕影响苹果开花期的气候要素,研究了其变化特征及对苹果开花期的影响。建立了苹果始花期物候模型并模拟了未来气候变化的影响,根据未来苹果花期遭遇冻害将加剧的特点完成了陕西省果区及北扩可能区域花期冻害发生频率及风险分析。
本文利用陕西省果业县(区)1961—2007年的逐日平均气溫及极端最低、最高气温、降水量资料及6个苹果物候观测站物候资料,应用多年平均值、5a滑动平均、距平、标准差、小波分析、小波系数的方差分析等多种统计方法分析了果区年及冬、春季降水量、气温变化及跃变点、显著性周期等特征,进行了气温/降水量年代际变化比较。分析了陕西省果区气候变化特点及对苹果开花期的影响。
分析结果表明,各果区降水量(年/冬季/春季)均呈减少趋势,,跃变点在80年代中期左右,干旱化趋势明显。气温(年平均/冬季平均/春季平均)呈现显著上升趋势,跃变点在80年代中期左右。春季气温升高趋势最显著,这些因素导致了果树开花期较八十年代提前了20d左右,在4月上中旬开花。而在4月上旬末—中旬遇冷空气几率极大,此时正值陕西果区苹果开花期,冷空气侵袭使陕西果区开花期遭遇冻害风险加剧。分析了气温、降水对苹果开花的影响。热量条件好,开花期提前,缩短了开花时间间隔。适宜降水促进果树开花,降水量过大推迟开花,剧烈的气温波动不利于开花。论述了暖冬年份春季强降温发生机率大,果树开花期遭遇强降温年份占一半以上。自上世纪九十年代后期“暖冬”年份增多,“暖冬”后常伴随春季强降温,陕西果区开花期遭遇强降温机率大。
建立了苹果始花期物候模型y=-1.4*T1-1.13*T2+0.11*r+95.1。模型中y为始花日数的预测值,T1为1月份平均气温,T2为3月份平均气温,r为3月下旬日照时数。此模型精度高。模拟了未来气候变化对陕西果区影响情况,结果表明,陕西果区未来气候变化趋势将导致苹果开花期提前,遭遇冻害的机率未来将更加严重,不利于果业生产。若未来陕西果区冬季或春季气温升高1—2℃或日照时数较少10—20小时,则开花期偏早1—3d。若升温幅度更大,开花期提前愈多。该研究有助于预测气候变化背景下陕西苹果的开花时间,为实现花期调控提供科学依据。
论述了气象条件对果业的影响,分析了花期冻害、果实膨大期高温热害、冰雹、干旱、果实着色成熟期低温、连阴雨等果业气象灾害的指标及危害,对每一种果业气象灾害进行了个例分析。指出花期冻害是影响陕西果业的最主要气象灾害。
应用历史记录、灾害调查和GIS技术,首次成功地完成了陕西省果区及北扩可能区域花期冻害发生频率及风险分析,解决了花期冻害风险分析的量化问题,以县为单位将风险分为四个级别,对各地花期冻害风险进行了定性和定量化研究,并以等级程度表示风险结果,为种植区域北扩提供了科学依据。
本研究意义在于推进陕西省果业结构和种植制度调整。优化果业区域布局,促进优势农产品向优势产区集中,形成优势农产品产业带,提高果业生产能力。
The fruit industry develops swiftly and violently in Shanxi,has become the pillar industry,in 2007 Shanxi Province apple sown area 7,300,000 Chinese acres,output 7,010,000 tons.The apple florescence's meteorological condition to the same year apple output,the quality had the decisive significance.Regarding the influence apple florescence's climatic element,has studied its change characteristic and to the apple florescence influence closely.Has established the apple flowering season relationship between living things and the seasons model and has simulated the future climatic change influence,will intensify the characteristic according to the future apple flowering season bitter experience freeze injury to complete the Shanxi Province fruit area and north expands the possible region flowering season freeze injury to have the frequency and the risk analysis.
This article uses the Shanxi Province fruit industry county(area)1961-2007 year daily mean temperature and is extremely lowest,the highest temperature,the precipitation material and 6 apple relationship between living things and the seasons observation station relationship between living things and the seasons material, applied many year mean values,the 5a running mean,anomalous,the standard deviation,the wavelet analysis,the wavelet coefficient variance analysis and so on many kinds of statistical methods to analyze fruit characteristics and so on area year and winter,spring precipitation,temperature change and jump,remarkable sexual cycle,has carried on the temperature/precipitation age border change comparison.Has analyzed the Shanxi Province fruit area climatic change characteristic and to the apple florescence influence.Has established apple flowering season relationship between living things and the seasons model y=-1.4*T1-1.13*T2+0.11*r+95.1.In the model y is the beginning flower date number predicted value,T1 is in the January average temperature,T2 is in the March average temperature,r is late March sunshine hours.This model precision is high.Has simulated the future climatic change to the Shanxi fruit area influence situation,finally indicated that the Shanxi fruit area the climatic change tendency will cause the apple florescence to be ahead of time in the future,encounters the freeze injury the probability to be more serious in the future, does not favor the fruit industry production.If the future Shanxi fruit area winter either the spring temperature will elevate 1-2℃or the sunshine hours are few for 10-20 hours,then florescence early 1-3d.If the elevation of temperature scope is bigger,the florescence are ahead of time more.This research is helpful under the forecast climatic change background the Shanxi apple blossoms the time,is realizes the flowering season regulation to provide the scientific basis.
Elaborated the meteorological condition to fruit's industry influence,analyzed the flowering season freeze injury,the fruit to expand time high fruit industry meteorological disaster's and so on warming up evil,hail,drought,fruit coloration mature period low temperature,continuous rain targets and the harm,has carried on the example analysis to each kind of fruit industry meteorological disaster.Pointed out that the flowering season freeze injury affects the Shanxi fruit industry most main meteorological disaster.
The application historic record,the disaster investigation and the GIS technology, have completed the Shanxi Province fruit area successfully for the first time and north expand the possible region flowering season freeze injury to have the frequency and the risk analysis,has solved the flowering season freeze injury risk analysis quantification problem,divides into take the county as the unit the risk four ranks,has conducted qualitative and the quantitative research to the regional flowering season freeze injury risk,and take the rank degree expression risk result,as planted north the region to expand has provided the scientific basis.
This research significance lies in advances the Shanxi Province fruit industry structure and the cropping system adjustment.The optimized fruit industry region layout,the promotion superiority agricultural product is centralized to the superiority production area,forms the superiority agricultural product industry belt,sharpens the fruit industry productivity.
本文利用陕西省果业县(区)1961—2007年的逐日平均气溫及极端最低、最高气温、降水量资料及6个苹果物候观测站物候资料,应用多年平均值、5a滑动平均、距平、标准差、小波分析、小波系数的方差分析等多种统计方法分析了果区年及冬、春季降水量、气温变化及跃变点、显著性周期等特征,进行了气温/降水量年代际变化比较。分析了陕西省果区气候变化特点及对苹果开花期的影响。
分析结果表明,各果区降水量(年/冬季/春季)均呈减少趋势,,跃变点在80年代中期左右,干旱化趋势明显。气温(年平均/冬季平均/春季平均)呈现显著上升趋势,跃变点在80年代中期左右。春季气温升高趋势最显著,这些因素导致了果树开花期较八十年代提前了20d左右,在4月上中旬开花。而在4月上旬末—中旬遇冷空气几率极大,此时正值陕西果区苹果开花期,冷空气侵袭使陕西果区开花期遭遇冻害风险加剧。分析了气温、降水对苹果开花的影响。热量条件好,开花期提前,缩短了开花时间间隔。适宜降水促进果树开花,降水量过大推迟开花,剧烈的气温波动不利于开花。论述了暖冬年份春季强降温发生机率大,果树开花期遭遇强降温年份占一半以上。自上世纪九十年代后期“暖冬”年份增多,“暖冬”后常伴随春季强降温,陕西果区开花期遭遇强降温机率大。
建立了苹果始花期物候模型y=-1.4*T1-1.13*T2+0.11*r+95.1。模型中y为始花日数的预测值,T1为1月份平均气温,T2为3月份平均气温,r为3月下旬日照时数。此模型精度高。模拟了未来气候变化对陕西果区影响情况,结果表明,陕西果区未来气候变化趋势将导致苹果开花期提前,遭遇冻害的机率未来将更加严重,不利于果业生产。若未来陕西果区冬季或春季气温升高1—2℃或日照时数较少10—20小时,则开花期偏早1—3d。若升温幅度更大,开花期提前愈多。该研究有助于预测气候变化背景下陕西苹果的开花时间,为实现花期调控提供科学依据。
论述了气象条件对果业的影响,分析了花期冻害、果实膨大期高温热害、冰雹、干旱、果实着色成熟期低温、连阴雨等果业气象灾害的指标及危害,对每一种果业气象灾害进行了个例分析。指出花期冻害是影响陕西果业的最主要气象灾害。
应用历史记录、灾害调查和GIS技术,首次成功地完成了陕西省果区及北扩可能区域花期冻害发生频率及风险分析,解决了花期冻害风险分析的量化问题,以县为单位将风险分为四个级别,对各地花期冻害风险进行了定性和定量化研究,并以等级程度表示风险结果,为种植区域北扩提供了科学依据。
本研究意义在于推进陕西省果业结构和种植制度调整。优化果业区域布局,促进优势农产品向优势产区集中,形成优势农产品产业带,提高果业生产能力。
The fruit industry develops swiftly and violently in Shanxi,has become the pillar industry,in 2007 Shanxi Province apple sown area 7,300,000 Chinese acres,output 7,010,000 tons.The apple florescence's meteorological condition to the same year apple output,the quality had the decisive significance.Regarding the influence apple florescence's climatic element,has studied its change characteristic and to the apple florescence influence closely.Has established the apple flowering season relationship between living things and the seasons model and has simulated the future climatic change influence,will intensify the characteristic according to the future apple flowering season bitter experience freeze injury to complete the Shanxi Province fruit area and north expands the possible region flowering season freeze injury to have the frequency and the risk analysis.
This article uses the Shanxi Province fruit industry county(area)1961-2007 year daily mean temperature and is extremely lowest,the highest temperature,the precipitation material and 6 apple relationship between living things and the seasons observation station relationship between living things and the seasons material, applied many year mean values,the 5a running mean,anomalous,the standard deviation,the wavelet analysis,the wavelet coefficient variance analysis and so on many kinds of statistical methods to analyze fruit characteristics and so on area year and winter,spring precipitation,temperature change and jump,remarkable sexual cycle,has carried on the temperature/precipitation age border change comparison.Has analyzed the Shanxi Province fruit area climatic change characteristic and to the apple florescence influence.Has established apple flowering season relationship between living things and the seasons model y=-1.4*T1-1.13*T2+0.11*r+95.1.In the model y is the beginning flower date number predicted value,T1 is in the January average temperature,T2 is in the March average temperature,r is late March sunshine hours.This model precision is high.Has simulated the future climatic change to the Shanxi fruit area influence situation,finally indicated that the Shanxi fruit area the climatic change tendency will cause the apple florescence to be ahead of time in the future,encounters the freeze injury the probability to be more serious in the future, does not favor the fruit industry production.If the future Shanxi fruit area winter either the spring temperature will elevate 1-2℃or the sunshine hours are few for 10-20 hours,then florescence early 1-3d.If the elevation of temperature scope is bigger,the florescence are ahead of time more.This research is helpful under the forecast climatic change background the Shanxi apple blossoms the time,is realizes the flowering season regulation to provide the scientific basis.
Elaborated the meteorological condition to fruit's industry influence,analyzed the flowering season freeze injury,the fruit to expand time high fruit industry meteorological disaster's and so on warming up evil,hail,drought,fruit coloration mature period low temperature,continuous rain targets and the harm,has carried on the example analysis to each kind of fruit industry meteorological disaster.Pointed out that the flowering season freeze injury affects the Shanxi fruit industry most main meteorological disaster.
The application historic record,the disaster investigation and the GIS technology, have completed the Shanxi Province fruit area successfully for the first time and north expand the possible region flowering season freeze injury to have the frequency and the risk analysis,has solved the flowering season freeze injury risk analysis quantification problem,divides into take the county as the unit the risk four ranks,has conducted qualitative and the quantitative research to the regional flowering season freeze injury risk,and take the rank degree expression risk result,as planted north the region to expand has provided the scientific basis.
This research significance lies in advances the Shanxi Province fruit industry structure and the cropping system adjustment.The optimized fruit industry region layout,the promotion superiority agricultural product is centralized to the superiority production area,forms the superiority agricultural product industry belt,sharpens the fruit industry productivity.
引文
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[2]刘晓清,赵景波,于学峰.黄土高原气候暖干化趋势及适应对策[J].干旱区研究,2006(4):627-631.
[3]郭海英,赵建萍,索安宁,杨兴国等.陇东黄土高原农业物候对全球气候变化的响应[J].自然资源学报,2006(4):608-614.
[4]张永红,葛徽衍.陕西省作物气候生产力的地理分布与变化特征[J].中国农业气象2006,27(1):38-40.
[5]刘德祥,董安祥,邓振镛.中国西北地区气候变暖对农业的影响[J].自然资源学报2005(1):119-125.
[6]刘文泉,王馥棠.黄土高原地区农业生产对气候变化的脆弱性分析[J].南京气象学院学报2002(5):620-624.
[7]韩小梅,申双和.物候模型研究进展[J].生态学杂志2008(1).
[8]杨秀武.苹果盛花期预报模式的探讨[J].果树学报
[9]方修琦,余卫红.物候对全球变暖响应的研究综述[J].地球科学进展2002(5)
[10]陈效逑,张福春.近50年北京春季物候的变化及其对气候变化的响应[J]..中国农业气象2001(1).
[11]毛明策,刘敏茹,姜创业,陈建文.苹果初花期与温度的关系研究[J].中国农业气象2005(2).
[1]吴洪宝,吴蕾.气候变率诊断和预测方法[M].气象出版社.2005
1.汪景颜.红富士苹果高产栽培[M].金盾出版社。1993年8月第一版.
2.施雅风等.中国西北气候由暖干向暖湿转型问题评估[M].气象出版社.2002.
3.陈尚谟,黄寿波,温福光.果树气象学[M].气象出版社.1988年8月第一版.
4.郝日明,张璐,张明娟,向其柏,臧德奎.影响南京地区桂花秋季开花期变 化的关键气候因子研究[J].植物资源与环境学报2006(3).
5.雷向杰,黄祖英,田武文,胡春娟.两个30年气候平均值的差异及其对气候业务的影响[J].气象科技2005(2):124-127.
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[1]朱琳,叶殿秀,陈建文,郭兆夏,李美荣.陕西省冬小麦干旱风险分析及区划.应用气象学报2002(2):201-206.
[2]朱琳,王万瑞,,任宗启,王建萍,郭兆夏.陕北仁用杏花期霜冻风险分析及区划.中国农业气象2003(2):49-50.
[2]刘晓清,赵景波,于学峰.黄土高原气候暖干化趋势及适应对策[J].干旱区研究,2006(4):627-631.
[3]郭海英,赵建萍,索安宁,杨兴国等.陇东黄土高原农业物候对全球气候变化的响应[J].自然资源学报,2006(4):608-614.
[4]张永红,葛徽衍.陕西省作物气候生产力的地理分布与变化特征[J].中国农业气象2006,27(1):38-40.
[5]刘德祥,董安祥,邓振镛.中国西北地区气候变暖对农业的影响[J].自然资源学报2005(1):119-125.
[6]刘文泉,王馥棠.黄土高原地区农业生产对气候变化的脆弱性分析[J].南京气象学院学报2002(5):620-624.
[7]韩小梅,申双和.物候模型研究进展[J].生态学杂志2008(1).
[8]杨秀武.苹果盛花期预报模式的探讨[J].果树学报
[9]方修琦,余卫红.物候对全球变暖响应的研究综述[J].地球科学进展2002(5)
[10]陈效逑,张福春.近50年北京春季物候的变化及其对气候变化的响应[J]..中国农业气象2001(1).
[11]毛明策,刘敏茹,姜创业,陈建文.苹果初花期与温度的关系研究[J].中国农业气象2005(2).
[1]吴洪宝,吴蕾.气候变率诊断和预测方法[M].气象出版社.2005
1.汪景颜.红富士苹果高产栽培[M].金盾出版社。1993年8月第一版.
2.施雅风等.中国西北气候由暖干向暖湿转型问题评估[M].气象出版社.2002.
3.陈尚谟,黄寿波,温福光.果树气象学[M].气象出版社.1988年8月第一版.
4.郝日明,张璐,张明娟,向其柏,臧德奎.影响南京地区桂花秋季开花期变 化的关键气候因子研究[J].植物资源与环境学报2006(3).
5.雷向杰,黄祖英,田武文,胡春娟.两个30年气候平均值的差异及其对气候业务的影响[J].气象科技2005(2):124-127.
1.韩小梅,申双和.物候模型研究进展[J].生态学杂志,2008(1):89-95.
2.张志翔等.树木学(北方本)[M].北京林业大学.
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