博斯腾湖流域主要入湖河流径流序列分析
|
摘要
水资源的的可持续利用是我国西北生态环境脆弱地区社会经济可持续发展的关键问题。位于新疆天山中部的博斯腾湖(简称:博湖)曾被认为是我国内陆地区最大的淡水湖【1】,其水资源储量对当地的经济发展和生态环境具有重要意义。近几十年来,气候因素及水土开发活动造成了入湖河流径流量的不稳定,给博湖流域工农业生产带来了一定程度的影响。
为了协调博湖流域自身需水量与中下游生态用水量的关系,评估博湖流域气候变化和人类活动对地表径流的影响,本文利用1956-2005年期间在博湖流域3条主要河流开都河、黄水沟、清水河的流量实测资料,结合巴音布鲁克、焉耆等5个气象站的降水、气温要素的同期观测数据,利用差分积分曲线的方法,对1956 -2005年期间的河流径流量、降水量等水文要素进行了“高/低流量相”的分析,并结合年均气温的变化趋势。研究结果表明:河流年际径流量在时间序列上,清水河于1959年就进入低流量,而开都河与黄水沟从1972年开始偏枯,到1988年为止这三条河的径流均呈现低流量;博湖流域最大入湖河流—开都河,在低流量时期(即,1973-1988年期间),中、下游河段的年径流量下降幅度明显大于上游河段。对于河流径流量的季节变化,以开都河为例,在1972-2005年期间,增长季节(4-9月)中、下游径流量的下降率是上游的2-2.5倍;非增长季节(10-次年3月)这种变化不明显。这表明开都河在偏枯年份,河流的中、下游年径流量受人为活动的影响较大,水土开发对河流径流量的影响主要表现在增长季节。这可对以博斯腾湖为代表的干旱区水资源合理配置提供科学依据,并对当地的水资源高效利用即工农业生产具有指导意义。
Water resource persistent utilization is the key question to the sustainable development of social economy of fragile area in China Northwest entironment. Boston Lake, located in the central of Xinjiang Tien Shan , was regarded as the biggest fresh water lack of inland of our country and its water resource reserve played an important role to the local economy development and ecological environment. From recent several decades, due to the climate factor and influence of natural environment development, it caused unstable river discharge so that caused Boston Lake drainage area appearing continuous wet and dry years.
In order to analyze the river discharge and discharge process of upper and middle streams of Boston Lake, estimate the influence to surface runoff from Boston lake drainage area’s climate change and human activity and coordinate relationship between Boston Lake itself water demand and ecological water consumption of middle and down streams, utilizing hydrology and weather data from 1956 to 2005 and analyzing river discharge inpoured to Boston Lake, this paper uses integro-difference curve to analyze high/low discharge phenomenon and gets a result that Kaidu river and Huangshui channel were low discharge from 1972, Qingshui river came into low discharge from 1959 and low discharge of these three rivers were lasting to 1988. Compared with river discharge before 1972, the descend rate of up stream’s discharge of Kaidu river was inferior to downstream. The up stream’s change is due to unstable of nature and the downstream is due to climate and human activity. Therefore, directed at up stream and downstream of Kaidu river respectively, this paper studies river discharge characteristics in growing season (from April t Sept.) and non-growing season (from Oct. to March of the coming year). In the middle and downstream of the river, river discharge was stable around 1972 in non-growing season. However, from 1972 to 2005, the descend rate of river discharge of downstream was twice to half and twice lower than up stream. This was mainly caused by human activity. Therefore, we can safely conclude that during low discharge period, human activity is the dominating factor to the change of middle and down stream’s river discharge around 1972.
In the inland of Northwest area, there isn’t perfect hydrological drainage model can be used for corresponding numerical model of climate change and water resource. Referring to overseas integro-difference dividing high/low flow method, this paper analyzes flow data of main rivers of Boston Lake, such as Kaidu river, Yanqi, Baolang Sumu river hydrological station, Huangshui channel and Qingshui river, studies space-time distributing specific rule of five decades’river discharge, estimates response of river discharge to climate and human activity and hopes to provide some concrete theory for establishing attempering water resource proposal of continuous wet and dry years of Boston Lake located in rainless region.
为了协调博湖流域自身需水量与中下游生态用水量的关系,评估博湖流域气候变化和人类活动对地表径流的影响,本文利用1956-2005年期间在博湖流域3条主要河流开都河、黄水沟、清水河的流量实测资料,结合巴音布鲁克、焉耆等5个气象站的降水、气温要素的同期观测数据,利用差分积分曲线的方法,对1956 -2005年期间的河流径流量、降水量等水文要素进行了“高/低流量相”的分析,并结合年均气温的变化趋势。研究结果表明:河流年际径流量在时间序列上,清水河于1959年就进入低流量,而开都河与黄水沟从1972年开始偏枯,到1988年为止这三条河的径流均呈现低流量;博湖流域最大入湖河流—开都河,在低流量时期(即,1973-1988年期间),中、下游河段的年径流量下降幅度明显大于上游河段。对于河流径流量的季节变化,以开都河为例,在1972-2005年期间,增长季节(4-9月)中、下游径流量的下降率是上游的2-2.5倍;非增长季节(10-次年3月)这种变化不明显。这表明开都河在偏枯年份,河流的中、下游年径流量受人为活动的影响较大,水土开发对河流径流量的影响主要表现在增长季节。这可对以博斯腾湖为代表的干旱区水资源合理配置提供科学依据,并对当地的水资源高效利用即工农业生产具有指导意义。
Water resource persistent utilization is the key question to the sustainable development of social economy of fragile area in China Northwest entironment. Boston Lake, located in the central of Xinjiang Tien Shan , was regarded as the biggest fresh water lack of inland of our country and its water resource reserve played an important role to the local economy development and ecological environment. From recent several decades, due to the climate factor and influence of natural environment development, it caused unstable river discharge so that caused Boston Lake drainage area appearing continuous wet and dry years.
In order to analyze the river discharge and discharge process of upper and middle streams of Boston Lake, estimate the influence to surface runoff from Boston lake drainage area’s climate change and human activity and coordinate relationship between Boston Lake itself water demand and ecological water consumption of middle and down streams, utilizing hydrology and weather data from 1956 to 2005 and analyzing river discharge inpoured to Boston Lake, this paper uses integro-difference curve to analyze high/low discharge phenomenon and gets a result that Kaidu river and Huangshui channel were low discharge from 1972, Qingshui river came into low discharge from 1959 and low discharge of these three rivers were lasting to 1988. Compared with river discharge before 1972, the descend rate of up stream’s discharge of Kaidu river was inferior to downstream. The up stream’s change is due to unstable of nature and the downstream is due to climate and human activity. Therefore, directed at up stream and downstream of Kaidu river respectively, this paper studies river discharge characteristics in growing season (from April t Sept.) and non-growing season (from Oct. to March of the coming year). In the middle and downstream of the river, river discharge was stable around 1972 in non-growing season. However, from 1972 to 2005, the descend rate of river discharge of downstream was twice to half and twice lower than up stream. This was mainly caused by human activity. Therefore, we can safely conclude that during low discharge period, human activity is the dominating factor to the change of middle and down stream’s river discharge around 1972.
In the inland of Northwest area, there isn’t perfect hydrological drainage model can be used for corresponding numerical model of climate change and water resource. Referring to overseas integro-difference dividing high/low flow method, this paper analyzes flow data of main rivers of Boston Lake, such as Kaidu river, Yanqi, Baolang Sumu river hydrological station, Huangshui channel and Qingshui river, studies space-time distributing specific rule of five decades’river discharge, estimates response of river discharge to climate and human activity and hopes to provide some concrete theory for establishing attempering water resource proposal of continuous wet and dry years of Boston Lake located in rainless region.
引文
[1]巴洲国土规划博湖规划组. 巴音郭楞蒙古自治州国土规划博斯腾湖保护治理和资源开发规划[M].中国新疆维吾尔自治区. 1984.1~70
[2]中国人民解放军 00925 部队.中华人民共和国区域水文地质普查报告—焉耆盆地[J]. 1977.46~116
[3]王鹤亭.论新疆博斯腾湖扬水站在博湖水资源的保护和综合利用中的关键作用—呼吁抢救面临盐化威胁的我国最大的内陆淡水湖博斯腾湖[J]. 1981.1~21
[4]康尔泗,Atsumu Ohmura.天山冰雪消融参数化能量平衡模型[J].地理学报. 1994.49(5).467~476
[5]康尔泗,程国栋,董增川.中国西北干旱区冰雪水资源与出山径流[M]. 2002.181~293.北京:科学出版社
[6] 原绍森.巴音郭楞蒙古自治州国土规划博斯腾湖咸化治理水盐调节方案[M]. 1985. 巴洲国土规划综合组
[7] 巴洲国土规划渔业组.巴音郭楞蒙古自治州国土规划渔业生产结构与合理布局[M]. 1984. 中国新疆维吾尔自治区. 1~68
[8]程其畴.博斯腾湖研究[M]. 1995.南京:河海大学出版社
[9]邵民诚等.博斯腾湖高水位运行调度方案及对策意见[M]. 2000.北京:中国水利水电出版社
[10]Zhao J.F..Nagashima H. A Seasonal Water Balance of the Lake Bosten in Xinjiang, China[J].Japan Soc. Hydro.&.Water Resour. 2001.14(4). 267 ~276
[11] 赵景峰.中国新疆のボステン湖の水塩収支と湖水循環に関する研究.東京水産大学大学院修士论文. 1999.1~86
[12]赵景峰.中国新疆のボステン湖流域水収支に関する研究. 東京水産大学大学院博士论文. 2003.1~159
[13]左其亭,吴泽宁.可持续水资源管理量化研究的关键问题[J].西北水资源与水工程. 2002.13(3):1~4
[14]左其亭,夏军,邵民诚,陈跃滨.博斯腾湖水资源可持续利用调度系统[J].水利水电技术. 2003.34(2):1~4
[15] 左其亭,夏军.陆面水量~水质~生态耦合系统模型研究[J].水利学报. 2002. (2):61~65
[16]夏军等.博斯腾湖水资源可持续利用—理论·方法·实践[M]. 2003.北京:科学出版社.121~122
[17]陈家琦,王浩,杨小柳.水资源学[M]. 2000.50~52.北京:科学出版社
[18]S.W.Hostetler,P.J.Bartlein,P.U.Clark,E.E.Small&A.M.Solomon. Simulated influences of Lake Agassiz on the climate of central North America 11,000 years ago,Nature 405, 2000.334~337
[19]Small,E.E.,Sloan,L.C.,Hostetler,S.W.&Giorgi,F. Simulating the water alance of the Aral Sea with a coupled regional climate-lake model.J.Geophy.Res. 1999.104.6583~6602
[20]日野干雄.谱分析[M]. 2000.54~56.朝仓书店
[21]Arvo Jarvet,A.,Jaagus,J.,Roosaare,J.,Tamm,T. and Vallner,L. Impact of Climate Change on Water Balance Elements in Estonia.—Estonia,Geographical Studies 8(Eds.Tiia Kaare and Jaan-Mati Punning).Estonian Academy Publishers, Tallinn. 2000.35~55
[22]Leavesley,G.H. Modeling the effects of climate change on water resources-a review.-Climate Change 28. 1994.159~177
[23]Paulin Coulibaly,Donald H.Burn. Wavelet analysis of variability in annual Canadian streamflows[J].Water Resour.2004. (40).24~38
[24]Etchells.T..H.Malano,T.A.McMahon.and B.James. Calculating exchange rates for water trading in the Murray-Darling Basin,Australia[J].Water Resour.2004. (40).15~24
[25]中国二十一世纪议程----中国 21 世纪人口,环境与发展白皮书[M]. 1994.北京:中国环境科学出版社
[26]Simonovic A P(ed). Modeling and management of water quantity and quality. Guest editors for Special Issue, Hydrological Science Journal. 1995. 44(4):503~505
[27]新疆维吾尔自治区人民政府.新疆年鉴.新疆人民出版社.2006.
[28]周建勤,潘晓玲. 新疆巴州博斯腾湖生态旅游发展分析[J].宁夏农学院学报, 2004, 25(3):53-55.
[29]刘昌明,何希吾.中国 21 世纪水问题方略[M].北京:科学出版社.1996.
[30]马金珠,高前兆.西北干旱区内陆河流域水资源系统与生态环境问题[J].干旱区资源与环境,11(4):15-21.1998.
[31]马学尼,黄廷林.水文学[M]. 北京:中国建筑科学出版社.1998.
[32]潘家华. 持续发展途径的经济学分析[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社.1997.
[33]钱正英,张正斗.中国可持续发展水资源战略研究(综合报告及各专题报告)[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社.2001
[34]钱正英.西北地区水资源配置、生态环境建设和可持续发展战略研究[J].中国水利.5月,A 刊,17-24.2003.
[35]曲焕林.中国干旱半干旱地区地下水资源评价[M].北京:科学出版社.1992.
[36]施雅风.中国西北气候由暖干向暖湿转型问题评估[M].北京:气象出版社.2002.
[37]汤奇成,曲耀光.中国干旱区水文及水资源利用[M].北京:科学出版社.1992.
[38]汤奇成,熊怡.中国河流水文[M].北京:科学出版社.1998.
[39]唐云梯.实用环境保护大全(第二分册)[M].武汉:湖北人民出版社.1993.
[40]王根绪,程国栋.中国西部干旱区水资源利用及其生态环境问题[J].自然资源学报.14(2):109-116.1999.
[41]汪恕诚.资源水利——人与自然和谐相处[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社.2003.
[42]邬建国.景观生态学[M].北京:高等教育出版社.2000.
[43]吴申燕.塔里木盆地水热状况研究——蒸发及其相关问题[M]. 北京:海洋出版社. 1992.
[44]夏军,谈戈.全球变化与水文科学新的进展与挑战[J].资源科学.24(3).2002
[45]夏军,许新宜,胡宝清.水资源可持续管理问题研究与实践[M].武汉:武汉测绘科技大学出版社.1999.
[46]夏军.可持续水资源管理研究的若干热点及讨论[J].人民长江.28(4):25-26.1997.
[47]夏军.国际水资源研究与塔里木河流域可持续水资源管理问题.塔里木河流域水资源、环境与管理[J].中国环境科学出版社.296-303.1998.
[48]夏军.水文非线性系统理论与方法[M].武汉:武汉大学出版社.2002.
[49]夏军.可持续水资源管理研究与展望[J].水科学进展.8(4):370-375.1997
[50]夏军.水资源安全的度量:水资源承载力的研究与挑战[J].自然资源学报.17(3).262-269.2000.
[51]邢大韦.干旱地区水资源承载力评价.水资源可持续管理问题研究与实践[M].武汉:武汉测绘科技大学出版社.35-38.1999.
[52]新疆维吾尔自治区人民政府,中华人民共和国水利部.塔里木河近期综合治理规划报告[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社.2002.
[53]叶守泽,夏军,郭生练等.水库水环境模拟预测与评价[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社.1998.
[54]叶守泽,夏军.水文识别系统[M].北京:水利电力出版社.1989.
[55]张国良.21 世纪中国水供求[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社.2000.
[56]张岳.中国水资源与可持续发展[M].南宁:广西科学技术出版社.2000.
[57]赵松乔.中国干旱区自然地理[M].北京:科学出版社.1985.
[58]中国二十一世纪议程——中国 21 世纪人口、环境与发展白皮书[M].北京:中国环境科学出版社.1994.
[59]左其亭,陈曦,周可发.西部干旱区灌溉蒸发量计算的系统识别方法[J].西部水资源与水工程.12(2):5-9.2001.
[60]左其亭,陈曦.面向可持续发展的水资源规划与管理[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社.2003.
[61]左其亭,王中根.现代水文学[M].郑州:黄河水利出版社.2002.
[63]左其亭,陈曦,夏军.区域可持续发展量化研究方法[J].生态经济.增刊.9-13.2001.
[64]左其亭,邵民诚,陈跃滨,夏军.博斯腾湖水资源可持续利用调度系统[J].水利水电技术.34(2):1-4.2003.
[2]中国人民解放军 00925 部队.中华人民共和国区域水文地质普查报告—焉耆盆地[J]. 1977.46~116
[3]王鹤亭.论新疆博斯腾湖扬水站在博湖水资源的保护和综合利用中的关键作用—呼吁抢救面临盐化威胁的我国最大的内陆淡水湖博斯腾湖[J]. 1981.1~21
[4]康尔泗,Atsumu Ohmura.天山冰雪消融参数化能量平衡模型[J].地理学报. 1994.49(5).467~476
[5]康尔泗,程国栋,董增川.中国西北干旱区冰雪水资源与出山径流[M]. 2002.181~293.北京:科学出版社
[6] 原绍森.巴音郭楞蒙古自治州国土规划博斯腾湖咸化治理水盐调节方案[M]. 1985. 巴洲国土规划综合组
[7] 巴洲国土规划渔业组.巴音郭楞蒙古自治州国土规划渔业生产结构与合理布局[M]. 1984. 中国新疆维吾尔自治区. 1~68
[8]程其畴.博斯腾湖研究[M]. 1995.南京:河海大学出版社
[9]邵民诚等.博斯腾湖高水位运行调度方案及对策意见[M]. 2000.北京:中国水利水电出版社
[10]Zhao J.F..Nagashima H. A Seasonal Water Balance of the Lake Bosten in Xinjiang, China[J].Japan Soc. Hydro.&.Water Resour. 2001.14(4). 267 ~276
[11] 赵景峰.中国新疆のボステン湖の水塩収支と湖水循環に関する研究.東京水産大学大学院修士论文. 1999.1~86
[12]赵景峰.中国新疆のボステン湖流域水収支に関する研究. 東京水産大学大学院博士论文. 2003.1~159
[13]左其亭,吴泽宁.可持续水资源管理量化研究的关键问题[J].西北水资源与水工程. 2002.13(3):1~4
[14]左其亭,夏军,邵民诚,陈跃滨.博斯腾湖水资源可持续利用调度系统[J].水利水电技术. 2003.34(2):1~4
[15] 左其亭,夏军.陆面水量~水质~生态耦合系统模型研究[J].水利学报. 2002. (2):61~65
[16]夏军等.博斯腾湖水资源可持续利用—理论·方法·实践[M]. 2003.北京:科学出版社.121~122
[17]陈家琦,王浩,杨小柳.水资源学[M]. 2000.50~52.北京:科学出版社
[18]S.W.Hostetler,P.J.Bartlein,P.U.Clark,E.E.Small&A.M.Solomon. Simulated influences of Lake Agassiz on the climate of central North America 11,000 years ago,Nature 405, 2000.334~337
[19]Small,E.E.,Sloan,L.C.,Hostetler,S.W.&Giorgi,F. Simulating the water alance of the Aral Sea with a coupled regional climate-lake model.J.Geophy.Res. 1999.104.6583~6602
[20]日野干雄.谱分析[M]. 2000.54~56.朝仓书店
[21]Arvo Jarvet,A.,Jaagus,J.,Roosaare,J.,Tamm,T. and Vallner,L. Impact of Climate Change on Water Balance Elements in Estonia.—Estonia,Geographical Studies 8(Eds.Tiia Kaare and Jaan-Mati Punning).Estonian Academy Publishers, Tallinn. 2000.35~55
[22]Leavesley,G.H. Modeling the effects of climate change on water resources-a review.-Climate Change 28. 1994.159~177
[23]Paulin Coulibaly,Donald H.Burn. Wavelet analysis of variability in annual Canadian streamflows[J].Water Resour.2004. (40).24~38
[24]Etchells.T..H.Malano,T.A.McMahon.and B.James. Calculating exchange rates for water trading in the Murray-Darling Basin,Australia[J].Water Resour.2004. (40).15~24
[25]中国二十一世纪议程----中国 21 世纪人口,环境与发展白皮书[M]. 1994.北京:中国环境科学出版社
[26]Simonovic A P(ed). Modeling and management of water quantity and quality. Guest editors for Special Issue, Hydrological Science Journal. 1995. 44(4):503~505
[27]新疆维吾尔自治区人民政府.新疆年鉴.新疆人民出版社.2006.
[28]周建勤,潘晓玲. 新疆巴州博斯腾湖生态旅游发展分析[J].宁夏农学院学报, 2004, 25(3):53-55.
[29]刘昌明,何希吾.中国 21 世纪水问题方略[M].北京:科学出版社.1996.
[30]马金珠,高前兆.西北干旱区内陆河流域水资源系统与生态环境问题[J].干旱区资源与环境,11(4):15-21.1998.
[31]马学尼,黄廷林.水文学[M]. 北京:中国建筑科学出版社.1998.
[32]潘家华. 持续发展途径的经济学分析[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社.1997.
[33]钱正英,张正斗.中国可持续发展水资源战略研究(综合报告及各专题报告)[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社.2001
[34]钱正英.西北地区水资源配置、生态环境建设和可持续发展战略研究[J].中国水利.5月,A 刊,17-24.2003.
[35]曲焕林.中国干旱半干旱地区地下水资源评价[M].北京:科学出版社.1992.
[36]施雅风.中国西北气候由暖干向暖湿转型问题评估[M].北京:气象出版社.2002.
[37]汤奇成,曲耀光.中国干旱区水文及水资源利用[M].北京:科学出版社.1992.
[38]汤奇成,熊怡.中国河流水文[M].北京:科学出版社.1998.
[39]唐云梯.实用环境保护大全(第二分册)[M].武汉:湖北人民出版社.1993.
[40]王根绪,程国栋.中国西部干旱区水资源利用及其生态环境问题[J].自然资源学报.14(2):109-116.1999.
[41]汪恕诚.资源水利——人与自然和谐相处[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社.2003.
[42]邬建国.景观生态学[M].北京:高等教育出版社.2000.
[43]吴申燕.塔里木盆地水热状况研究——蒸发及其相关问题[M]. 北京:海洋出版社. 1992.
[44]夏军,谈戈.全球变化与水文科学新的进展与挑战[J].资源科学.24(3).2002
[45]夏军,许新宜,胡宝清.水资源可持续管理问题研究与实践[M].武汉:武汉测绘科技大学出版社.1999.
[46]夏军.可持续水资源管理研究的若干热点及讨论[J].人民长江.28(4):25-26.1997.
[47]夏军.国际水资源研究与塔里木河流域可持续水资源管理问题.塔里木河流域水资源、环境与管理[J].中国环境科学出版社.296-303.1998.
[48]夏军.水文非线性系统理论与方法[M].武汉:武汉大学出版社.2002.
[49]夏军.可持续水资源管理研究与展望[J].水科学进展.8(4):370-375.1997
[50]夏军.水资源安全的度量:水资源承载力的研究与挑战[J].自然资源学报.17(3).262-269.2000.
[51]邢大韦.干旱地区水资源承载力评价.水资源可持续管理问题研究与实践[M].武汉:武汉测绘科技大学出版社.35-38.1999.
[52]新疆维吾尔自治区人民政府,中华人民共和国水利部.塔里木河近期综合治理规划报告[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社.2002.
[53]叶守泽,夏军,郭生练等.水库水环境模拟预测与评价[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社.1998.
[54]叶守泽,夏军.水文识别系统[M].北京:水利电力出版社.1989.
[55]张国良.21 世纪中国水供求[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社.2000.
[56]张岳.中国水资源与可持续发展[M].南宁:广西科学技术出版社.2000.
[57]赵松乔.中国干旱区自然地理[M].北京:科学出版社.1985.
[58]中国二十一世纪议程——中国 21 世纪人口、环境与发展白皮书[M].北京:中国环境科学出版社.1994.
[59]左其亭,陈曦,周可发.西部干旱区灌溉蒸发量计算的系统识别方法[J].西部水资源与水工程.12(2):5-9.2001.
[60]左其亭,陈曦.面向可持续发展的水资源规划与管理[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社.2003.
[61]左其亭,王中根.现代水文学[M].郑州:黄河水利出版社.2002.
[63]左其亭,陈曦,夏军.区域可持续发展量化研究方法[J].生态经济.增刊.9-13.2001.
[64]左其亭,邵民诚,陈跃滨,夏军.博斯腾湖水资源可持续利用调度系统[J].水利水电技术.34(2):1-4.2003.
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |