中国人造板产业发展分析及对策研究
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摘要
相比国际人造板产业,中国人工林丰富,劳动力廉价,国内消费市场巨大,加之人造板机械工业发展迅速,尤其是国家优惠政策扶持,近年来,中国的人造板行业发展比较迅速,已成为世界人造板生产、消费和进出口贸易第一大国。本世纪前十年,人造板产量年均增长速度在20%左右,2009年,人造板产量高达1.1亿m3,企业数超过六千家。但中国人造板产业在产量快速增加的同时,也存在着整体竞争力不强的问题。主要表现在：产业集中度不高,龙头企业数量少；产业结构不合理,产品比例失调；技术进步跟不上产业发展速度,产品质量提升速度慢；企业创新能力低,产业竞争层次不高；资源约束明显等问题。为此,中国人造板产业必须改变过去只注重量的扩张,忽视产业调整、转型与升级的现状。具体而言,本文着重探讨三方面问题：改革开放以来,中国人造板产业的产业组织、产业结构、产业布局以及产业竞争力等是如何演进的?人造板产业高速发展的驱动因素有哪些?未来中国人造板产业的发展趋势如何?
本文在对现有人造板产业相关研究成果进行分析、比较以及综述的基础上,运用描述性统计分析方法,详细介绍了中国人造板产业发展历程,归纳概括各阶段的发展特征,并简要评述人造板产业现状及发展水平,探析目前存在的问题。在此基础上,应用产业组织理论、产业布局理论、产业结构理论等产业经济分析方法,对目前中国人造板产业的市场结构、市场行为、市场绩效进行分析研究,并应用产业竞争力模型、回归分析、灰色关联度检验、空间计量经济模型等,对影响人造板产业发展的诸多因素实证分析,衡量相关因素对其影响,据此提出适合中国人造板产业发展的、能够产生良好市场绩效的相关对策与建议。
本文的主要研究内容包括以下五个方面：
第一,对相关研究成果进行综述。详细介绍产业经济学理论及其在林产工业和人造板产业的应用；
第二,历史变迁与现状分析。以统计数据为依据,分析建国以来人造板产业发展变化,在分阶段研究基础上,结合目前产业发展水平,探讨其发展存在的问题；
第三,实证分析。分别对影响人造板生产的资源约束、经济环境、市场需求、技术进步、产业政策等因素进行描述性统计分析。并借鉴产业分析方法及其他相关研究方法,采用集中度指标、竞争力指标、空间计量指标等,对人造板产业发展的主要因素进行实证分析。
第四,结论与对策建议。对以上研究分析结果进行简要的归纳总结,并在此基础上提出中国人造板产业发展的对策建议。
本研究结果表明：中国人造板产业发展变化特征明显,改革开放以来,尤其是自20世纪90年代以来,人造板行业在国内获得蓬勃发展,在一系列相关因素的影响下,在总量和布局方面都发生了明显变化,明显呈现东强西弱态势,但企业规模较小、市场集中度低等市场组织的不合理,生产力布局不平衡,板种结构发展与原料供应不相配套现象相当突出,出口量大的几个主要人造板及其制品发展也很不稳定,人造板产品对外依存度很高。整个行业的管理和宏观调控工作,也存在不到位的情况。这些都成为影响中国人造板产业绩效较低的原因。人造板产业要利用国家经济结构调整和产品结构调整的机遇,大力开展行业整顿工作,扶优汰劣,提高整个行业技术水平、管理水平和产品质量,增加产品国内外竞争力。
Compared to the international wood-based panels industry, our plantation is rich in cheap labor, and huge domestic consumer market. Coupled with the rapid development of wood-based panels machinery industry, especially the support of national preferential policies,China's wood based panel industry has become the world's wood-based panels production, consumption and import and export superpower in recent years.In the first decade of this century, the average annual growth rate of wood-based panel production is about 20%. In 2009, plywood production was up to 1.1 billion m3 and the number of enterprises was more than six thousand. With the development of wood-based panel industry,some problems has risen, such as the irrational product structure, low-tech products, low enterprise management level, low rate of qualified products,resource shortages and low industrial concentration.Thus, to improve the overall level of China's wood based panel industry, we must improve the implementation of technological content of products, expande the scale of production; standard operation and management according to the actual situation of the industry. Specifically, the paper focuses on three issues:what is the trend of industrial organization, industrial structure, industrial layout and the industrial competitiveness of China's plywood industry,etc since the reform and opening up; what is the drive mechanism behind the industry? how should this industry develop in the future?
This paper analysised the development process of China's wood-based panel industry and generalized the features and problems of wood-based panels industry by the methods of descriptive statistics, spatial statistics and microscopic survey which is based on the comprehensive and systematic review of existing literature.On this basis, the paper researched the current market structure, market behavior and market performance of the China's plywood industry with the industrial economic analysis methods such as industrial organization theory, industrial distribution theory and theory of industrial structure. Application of industrial competitiveness model, regression analysis, gray correlation test, spatial econometric models to analyze the factors which influents wood-based panel industry and measures the relevant factors. Finally, the paper puts up some organization policiesd sector management measures which fit for the development of China's plywood industry and may contribute to good market performance.
The main research areas include the following five aspects:
Firstly, the paper reviews the literature of existing research and introduces the theories of industrial economics, the application in forestry industry and wood-based panel industry.
Secondly, the paper analyzes the history and current situation on the plywood industry development since the founding and smmarizes the development of characteristic stages at different levels and explored their development problems.
Thirdly, the paper sets up the model of empirical analysis which analyzes the wood-based panel production resources, economic, market, technology, policy,location and other factors.Building spatial econometric model and industrial competitiveness model for empirical analysis of wood-based panel industry development factors.
Finally, this article mainly illustrates the conclusions and suggestions. According to the theory and empirical analysis, it summarizs the brief research findings in full text and puts forward suggestions of Chinese wood-based panel industry.
The results show that variation characteristics of wood-based panel industry in China was obvious.Since the reform and opening up, especially since the 1990s, wood-based panel industry was to flourish.With a series of related factors, the significant changes in terms of volume and layout have taken place, clearly showing strong west to east trend.However, market organizations is unreasonable such as smaller enterprises,low market concentration and uneven distribution of productive forces.The board structure development and raw material supply is not matching.And the development of several major exporting wood-based panels and products is very unstable.Plywood depend on foreign products highly.Management of the entire industry and macro-control work is unreasonable.These are the reasons for low performance of China's wood-based panels industry. Wood-based panel industry can make use of the opportunity of national economic restructuring and the product structure adjustment to carry out the work of industry consolidation, support the superior and eliminating the inferior, improve the industry technology level and management level and product quality and increase product competitiveness at home and abroad.
本文在对现有人造板产业相关研究成果进行分析、比较以及综述的基础上,运用描述性统计分析方法,详细介绍了中国人造板产业发展历程,归纳概括各阶段的发展特征,并简要评述人造板产业现状及发展水平,探析目前存在的问题。在此基础上,应用产业组织理论、产业布局理论、产业结构理论等产业经济分析方法,对目前中国人造板产业的市场结构、市场行为、市场绩效进行分析研究,并应用产业竞争力模型、回归分析、灰色关联度检验、空间计量经济模型等,对影响人造板产业发展的诸多因素实证分析,衡量相关因素对其影响,据此提出适合中国人造板产业发展的、能够产生良好市场绩效的相关对策与建议。
本文的主要研究内容包括以下五个方面：
第一,对相关研究成果进行综述。详细介绍产业经济学理论及其在林产工业和人造板产业的应用；
第二,历史变迁与现状分析。以统计数据为依据,分析建国以来人造板产业发展变化,在分阶段研究基础上,结合目前产业发展水平,探讨其发展存在的问题；
第三,实证分析。分别对影响人造板生产的资源约束、经济环境、市场需求、技术进步、产业政策等因素进行描述性统计分析。并借鉴产业分析方法及其他相关研究方法,采用集中度指标、竞争力指标、空间计量指标等,对人造板产业发展的主要因素进行实证分析。
第四,结论与对策建议。对以上研究分析结果进行简要的归纳总结,并在此基础上提出中国人造板产业发展的对策建议。
本研究结果表明：中国人造板产业发展变化特征明显,改革开放以来,尤其是自20世纪90年代以来,人造板行业在国内获得蓬勃发展,在一系列相关因素的影响下,在总量和布局方面都发生了明显变化,明显呈现东强西弱态势,但企业规模较小、市场集中度低等市场组织的不合理,生产力布局不平衡,板种结构发展与原料供应不相配套现象相当突出,出口量大的几个主要人造板及其制品发展也很不稳定,人造板产品对外依存度很高。整个行业的管理和宏观调控工作,也存在不到位的情况。这些都成为影响中国人造板产业绩效较低的原因。人造板产业要利用国家经济结构调整和产品结构调整的机遇,大力开展行业整顿工作,扶优汰劣,提高整个行业技术水平、管理水平和产品质量,增加产品国内外竞争力。
Compared to the international wood-based panels industry, our plantation is rich in cheap labor, and huge domestic consumer market. Coupled with the rapid development of wood-based panels machinery industry, especially the support of national preferential policies,China's wood based panel industry has become the world's wood-based panels production, consumption and import and export superpower in recent years.In the first decade of this century, the average annual growth rate of wood-based panel production is about 20%. In 2009, plywood production was up to 1.1 billion m3 and the number of enterprises was more than six thousand. With the development of wood-based panel industry,some problems has risen, such as the irrational product structure, low-tech products, low enterprise management level, low rate of qualified products,resource shortages and low industrial concentration.Thus, to improve the overall level of China's wood based panel industry, we must improve the implementation of technological content of products, expande the scale of production; standard operation and management according to the actual situation of the industry. Specifically, the paper focuses on three issues:what is the trend of industrial organization, industrial structure, industrial layout and the industrial competitiveness of China's plywood industry,etc since the reform and opening up; what is the drive mechanism behind the industry? how should this industry develop in the future?
This paper analysised the development process of China's wood-based panel industry and generalized the features and problems of wood-based panels industry by the methods of descriptive statistics, spatial statistics and microscopic survey which is based on the comprehensive and systematic review of existing literature.On this basis, the paper researched the current market structure, market behavior and market performance of the China's plywood industry with the industrial economic analysis methods such as industrial organization theory, industrial distribution theory and theory of industrial structure. Application of industrial competitiveness model, regression analysis, gray correlation test, spatial econometric models to analyze the factors which influents wood-based panel industry and measures the relevant factors. Finally, the paper puts up some organization policiesd sector management measures which fit for the development of China's plywood industry and may contribute to good market performance.
The main research areas include the following five aspects:
Firstly, the paper reviews the literature of existing research and introduces the theories of industrial economics, the application in forestry industry and wood-based panel industry.
Secondly, the paper analyzes the history and current situation on the plywood industry development since the founding and smmarizes the development of characteristic stages at different levels and explored their development problems.
Thirdly, the paper sets up the model of empirical analysis which analyzes the wood-based panel production resources, economic, market, technology, policy,location and other factors.Building spatial econometric model and industrial competitiveness model for empirical analysis of wood-based panel industry development factors.
Finally, this article mainly illustrates the conclusions and suggestions. According to the theory and empirical analysis, it summarizs the brief research findings in full text and puts forward suggestions of Chinese wood-based panel industry.
The results show that variation characteristics of wood-based panel industry in China was obvious.Since the reform and opening up, especially since the 1990s, wood-based panel industry was to flourish.With a series of related factors, the significant changes in terms of volume and layout have taken place, clearly showing strong west to east trend.However, market organizations is unreasonable such as smaller enterprises,low market concentration and uneven distribution of productive forces.The board structure development and raw material supply is not matching.And the development of several major exporting wood-based panels and products is very unstable.Plywood depend on foreign products highly.Management of the entire industry and macro-control work is unreasonable.These are the reasons for low performance of China's wood-based panels industry. Wood-based panel industry can make use of the opportunity of national economic restructuring and the product structure adjustment to carry out the work of industry consolidation, support the superior and eliminating the inferior, improve the industry technology level and management level and product quality and increase product competitiveness at home and abroad.
引文
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