大坝灾变复杂适应系统特征与溃坝阈值模型研究
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摘要
我国已建的8.7万余座水库中,约有3.7万座水库存在不同程度的病险问题。随着我国社会经济的高速发展,大坝安全与社会稳定、经济发展和生态安全之间息息相关。因此,研究大坝灾变复杂适应系统特征与大坝溃决阈值,对大坝安全运行与风险调控具有重要的理论意义和实践价值。
本文采用结构力学、水文学、多元统计分析方法和风险分析技术等方法与技术手段,对大坝灾变复杂适应系统特征、灾变因素和大坝溃决阈值等科学问题进行了研究。建立了大坝灾变复杂适应系统概念模型;揭示了灾害复杂适应系统的宏观特征及影响因素间的作用机制;在大坝风险分析的基础上,构建了大坝溃决的阈值模型。论文的主要研究内容包括:
(1)大坝灾变影响因素作用机制分析。针对溃坝信息量大、具有动态性等特点,建立了溃坝灾害基础信息数据库系统DFDS(Dam Failure Database System);采用对应分析方法,研究了大坝灾变致灾因子、孕灾因子与承灾因子之间的相互作用关系;基于聚类分析方法,将溃坝事故分为特大溃坝事故、重大溃坝事故、严重溃坝事故和一般溃坝事故四个等级。
(2)大坝灾变复杂适应系统特征研究。针对传统的大坝灾变系统特征分析方法不能充分考虑大坝系统的复杂性、动态性和不确定性等问题,从复杂系统的视角出发,建立了基于复杂适应系统(CAS)理论的大坝灾变复杂适应系统概念模型,并认为孕灾环境稳定性、致灾因子风险性和承灾体脆弱性间的相互作用导致了溃坝灾害。进而在SWARM软件平台上进行了仿真模拟,得到了大坝安全性的动态演变规律。
(3)大坝溃决阈值模型构建。通过对溃坝灾害特征的分析,研究了引起大坝溃决灾变的三种主要因素(即漫坝破坏、渗透破坏和坝坡失稳)的风险分析方法;建立了大坝在三种因素作用下的风险分析模型;通过大坝风险率与大坝等级之间的关系,建立了大坝溃决的阈值模型;并进行了溃坝阈值模型的可靠性分析。
(4)以河北省东武仕水库溃坝风险分析与溃坝阈值研究为例,应用所构建的风险分析模型和溃坝阈值模型,分别研究了单因素作用下和多因素综合作用下的大坝风险率及溃坝阈值。研究结果为水库安全运行提供了依据。
There are more than 8.7 million dams in China and about 3.7 million of these dams face serious safety problems. The threat of dam to social stability, economical development, and ecological security is larger along with the rapidly economic development. Thus, studies on characteristic of dam disaster complex adaptive system and dam break threshold value have great theoretical and practical significance to dam safety operation and risk control.
The scientific problems such as characteristic of dam disaster complex adaptive system, disaster inducing factors analysis, and dam break threshold value are studied based on the theoretical methods and technical means of structural mechanics, hydrology, multivariate statistical analysis method, and risk analysis technology. The conceptual model of dam break disaster complex adaptive system is built which reveals the characteristic of dam disaster system and interactional mechanism of disaster inducing factors. The model for dam break threshold value is built based on dam risk analysis. It provides the basis and reference for dam safety management. The study mainly including the following contents:
(1) Interactional mechanism of dam disaster inducing factors was analysed. In view of the characteristics of abundance information and dynamic of dam break, the dam failure database system (short for DFDS) has been constructed. The correspondence analysis method was applied to reveal the relationship of disaster-causing factor, disaster-pregnant environment, and disaster-bearing body. The cluster analysis method was used to classify the dam failure disaster into four categories: extraordinarily big accident, major accident, serious accident, and ordinary accident.
(2) The characteristic of dam break disaster was researched based on complex adaptive system. Most traditional dam risk analysis methods cannot fully consider complex, dynamic, and uncertain situations of dam system. In this research, dam system was conceived as a complex adaptive system, in which dam safety was perceived as a phenomenon that resulted from the interactions among disaster-causing factors, disaster-pregnant environment, and disaster-bearing body that influence or are influenced by regulatory activities within the dam system. The dam safety evaluation method based on the CAS theory was proposed. The simulation platform, called SWARM, is enhanced and applied for modeling dam system safety. Then the dynamic evolution process of dam safety was obtained. The method provides theoretical foundation for revealing interactions of disaster inducting factors.
(3) The model for dam failure threshold value was built. The risk analysis model inducing by the three factors of overtopping, seepage, and bank slope instability were studied. The threshold value was acquired using the relationship formula between risk probability and dam type. The reliability of the method was verified.
(4) The Dongwushi reservoir located in Hebei province of China was taken as a case study. The dam risk and threshold value induced by overtopping, seepage, and bank slope instability were studied. The results provides theoretical basis for dam safety operation.
本文采用结构力学、水文学、多元统计分析方法和风险分析技术等方法与技术手段,对大坝灾变复杂适应系统特征、灾变因素和大坝溃决阈值等科学问题进行了研究。建立了大坝灾变复杂适应系统概念模型;揭示了灾害复杂适应系统的宏观特征及影响因素间的作用机制;在大坝风险分析的基础上,构建了大坝溃决的阈值模型。论文的主要研究内容包括:
(1)大坝灾变影响因素作用机制分析。针对溃坝信息量大、具有动态性等特点,建立了溃坝灾害基础信息数据库系统DFDS(Dam Failure Database System);采用对应分析方法,研究了大坝灾变致灾因子、孕灾因子与承灾因子之间的相互作用关系;基于聚类分析方法,将溃坝事故分为特大溃坝事故、重大溃坝事故、严重溃坝事故和一般溃坝事故四个等级。
(2)大坝灾变复杂适应系统特征研究。针对传统的大坝灾变系统特征分析方法不能充分考虑大坝系统的复杂性、动态性和不确定性等问题,从复杂系统的视角出发,建立了基于复杂适应系统(CAS)理论的大坝灾变复杂适应系统概念模型,并认为孕灾环境稳定性、致灾因子风险性和承灾体脆弱性间的相互作用导致了溃坝灾害。进而在SWARM软件平台上进行了仿真模拟,得到了大坝安全性的动态演变规律。
(3)大坝溃决阈值模型构建。通过对溃坝灾害特征的分析,研究了引起大坝溃决灾变的三种主要因素(即漫坝破坏、渗透破坏和坝坡失稳)的风险分析方法;建立了大坝在三种因素作用下的风险分析模型;通过大坝风险率与大坝等级之间的关系,建立了大坝溃决的阈值模型;并进行了溃坝阈值模型的可靠性分析。
(4)以河北省东武仕水库溃坝风险分析与溃坝阈值研究为例,应用所构建的风险分析模型和溃坝阈值模型,分别研究了单因素作用下和多因素综合作用下的大坝风险率及溃坝阈值。研究结果为水库安全运行提供了依据。
There are more than 8.7 million dams in China and about 3.7 million of these dams face serious safety problems. The threat of dam to social stability, economical development, and ecological security is larger along with the rapidly economic development. Thus, studies on characteristic of dam disaster complex adaptive system and dam break threshold value have great theoretical and practical significance to dam safety operation and risk control.
The scientific problems such as characteristic of dam disaster complex adaptive system, disaster inducing factors analysis, and dam break threshold value are studied based on the theoretical methods and technical means of structural mechanics, hydrology, multivariate statistical analysis method, and risk analysis technology. The conceptual model of dam break disaster complex adaptive system is built which reveals the characteristic of dam disaster system and interactional mechanism of disaster inducing factors. The model for dam break threshold value is built based on dam risk analysis. It provides the basis and reference for dam safety management. The study mainly including the following contents:
(1) Interactional mechanism of dam disaster inducing factors was analysed. In view of the characteristics of abundance information and dynamic of dam break, the dam failure database system (short for DFDS) has been constructed. The correspondence analysis method was applied to reveal the relationship of disaster-causing factor, disaster-pregnant environment, and disaster-bearing body. The cluster analysis method was used to classify the dam failure disaster into four categories: extraordinarily big accident, major accident, serious accident, and ordinary accident.
(2) The characteristic of dam break disaster was researched based on complex adaptive system. Most traditional dam risk analysis methods cannot fully consider complex, dynamic, and uncertain situations of dam system. In this research, dam system was conceived as a complex adaptive system, in which dam safety was perceived as a phenomenon that resulted from the interactions among disaster-causing factors, disaster-pregnant environment, and disaster-bearing body that influence or are influenced by regulatory activities within the dam system. The dam safety evaluation method based on the CAS theory was proposed. The simulation platform, called SWARM, is enhanced and applied for modeling dam system safety. Then the dynamic evolution process of dam safety was obtained. The method provides theoretical foundation for revealing interactions of disaster inducting factors.
(3) The model for dam failure threshold value was built. The risk analysis model inducing by the three factors of overtopping, seepage, and bank slope instability were studied. The threshold value was acquired using the relationship formula between risk probability and dam type. The reliability of the method was verified.
(4) The Dongwushi reservoir located in Hebei province of China was taken as a case study. The dam risk and threshold value induced by overtopping, seepage, and bank slope instability were studied. The results provides theoretical basis for dam safety operation.
引文
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