我国蔬菜质量安全治理机制及其仿真研究
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摘要
当前我国蔬菜质量安全总体形势不容乐观,问题日益突出,蔬菜农药残留超标现象依然普遍存在,食用蔬菜中毒事件时有发生,因蔬菜质量安全问题引发的贸易争端事件日益增多。从二十世纪末以来,我国政府相继出台了一系列的法律法规以及相关政策,实施了食品安全专项整治等行动,然而,这些相关举措似乎并没有明显的效果。从实践和现实情况来看,我国蔬菜质量安全长期处于信息严重不对称的低水平均衡状态,而且,政府至今仍然未找到解决蔬菜质量安全问题的有效办法。由于蔬菜质量安全对于提高我国人民的身体健康,促进我国蔬菜产业的可持续发展以及维护社会稳定和谐都具有极其重要的意义,因此,探索一条诱导我国蔬菜质量安全水平从现阶段的低质量不安全低效率均衡演化到高质量安全高效率均衡的途径,从根本上保障蔬菜质量安全,成为一个急需解决的重要问题。考虑到现实中微观主体具有有限理性、适应性、学习和偏好改变等特性,以及我国蔬菜质量安全问题的复杂性,传统的研究方法无法揭示其运作逻辑,而基于主体建模的计算机仿真的方法,为研究行为、组织和制度的演化提供了有效工具。
本研究在现有研究成果的基础之上,运用经济学和行为科学等领域的相关理论,结合大量的实地调研,深入分析和探讨了政府监管体制和供应链的组织模式之间的相互关系,以及他们对蔬菜质量安全的影响,并以此为基础,采用基于Agent的建模方法和仿真技术,参照生鲜蔬菜供应链的运作流程,选择政府、农户和批发商三类Agents,通过对各类Agents的行为规则的设定和参数的调查,从而建立我国蔬菜质量安全的计算机仿真模型,通过不同情景下的仿真实验,得到相关变量或参数之间的关系,观察相关Agents的行为及演化过程,探讨我国现行背景下政府监管者、农户及蔬菜供应链之间相互作用的机制,以及他们共同作用而对整个蔬菜质量安全状况的影响。进而得出如下的主要结论:
(1)当前政府监管背景下,即实行分段式监管,且抽检率和罚款力度较低的情况下,现阶段我国实行的规模小而分散,组织化程度低的蔬菜生产经营方式难以保障蔬菜质量安全;即使加大罚款力度,提高抽检率,仍然效果甚微,反而大大加重了政府的监管成本。
(2)一旦外部环境有对蔬菜质量安全的要求,供应链就会实现某种程度的一体化,并且,对质量安全的要求越高,供应链的一体化程度就越高,而一体化程度越高,则农户规模就会越大。简而言之:供应链中纵向的协作越紧密(一体化程度越高),其提供的蔬菜的质量安全水平越高。
(3)蔬菜供应链的一体化程度越高,组织化程度越强,供应链中参与方之间的关系越紧密,政府的监管效率越高,成本越低。政府通过加强对供应链末端的监管,充分利用供应链的内部治理机制来控制蔬菜的质量安全,将政府监管压力、市场压力和市场信号迅速传递到整个供应链的所有参与者,降低政府的监管成本,同时推动市场机制演化,形成公私合作治理机制。
(4)相对于我国现行的分段式蔬菜质量安全监管体制而言,一体化监管是一种交易成本更低、效率更高、效果更好的监管体制。政府的一体化监管和供应链的一体化是两种有效率的信号生产与知识管理制度,相互依赖、协同演化。
(5)信任、文化和道德等非正式制度,也是重要的蔬菜质量安全的治理机制,对我国蔬菜质量安全的演化路径和演化速度都起着非常重要的作用。
最后,根据分析和研究结论,提出相应的关于保障蔬菜质量安全以及食品安全等方面的政策建议,从而为我国政府相关部门和人员制定政策提供可靠的参考与依据。
In recent years, the residue of pesticides of vegetables still generally exceeds standard, the poisoning of edible vegetables happens occasionally, and the export trade dispute increases day by day in our country. The situation is very unoptimistic, and the problem is increasingly striking. China government has issued some policies and law since the end of 20th century, but the effect is obsolete. Safe vegetables help to maintain sustainable development, social stability and harmonious, so how to guarantee vegetables safety are both helpful to improve people's life and health level and important condition of strengthening industry's competitiveness of vegetables of our country. At the same time, it becomes more and more important and urgent.
Based on the existing research results, employing the theory of economics and behavioral science, case study and induction method, the research analyses the relationships between modes of organization, government regulation and food safety. Furthermore, in this thesis, a recent method to model and simulate system is present, which is based on the multi-agent, and is workable and easy to implement a multi-agent system. And then, the supply chain of vegetable is modeled and simulated with this agent-based method, which is including government, wholesaler and farmer. Some experiments through computer simulation, demonstrate that the relationship of correlative variable and the evolutionary process of agnets. The main conclusions herein are as follows:
(1) At the present stage, disperse and small farmers are difficult to guarantee quality and safety of vegetables. The effect is poor even if the intension of regulation is increased. On the contrary, it increases the burden of government.
(2) Organizational modes of supply chain affect to ensure vegetable safety. The relationship between vegetable safety and organizational structures of supply chain is positive correlation.
(3) The degree of supply chain integration work on the efficiency of the government. Higher the degree of integration is, stronger organization extent is, and the more efficient regulation becomes.
(4) Integrated regulation system is more effective and businesslike to the distributed regulation system. Due to the disadvantage of China's vegetable safety regulation system, integrated regulation system is feasible way to innovate.
(5) Informal institution such as trust, culture and moral norm have affect on the evolutional path and speed of vegetable safety. On the other hand, it is also a significant governance mechanism of vegetable.
In the end, based on the research conclusions, some strategic suggestion are put forward. It will provide scientific basis for the government to guarantee quality and safety of vegetables.
本研究在现有研究成果的基础之上,运用经济学和行为科学等领域的相关理论,结合大量的实地调研,深入分析和探讨了政府监管体制和供应链的组织模式之间的相互关系,以及他们对蔬菜质量安全的影响,并以此为基础,采用基于Agent的建模方法和仿真技术,参照生鲜蔬菜供应链的运作流程,选择政府、农户和批发商三类Agents,通过对各类Agents的行为规则的设定和参数的调查,从而建立我国蔬菜质量安全的计算机仿真模型,通过不同情景下的仿真实验,得到相关变量或参数之间的关系,观察相关Agents的行为及演化过程,探讨我国现行背景下政府监管者、农户及蔬菜供应链之间相互作用的机制,以及他们共同作用而对整个蔬菜质量安全状况的影响。进而得出如下的主要结论:
(1)当前政府监管背景下,即实行分段式监管,且抽检率和罚款力度较低的情况下,现阶段我国实行的规模小而分散,组织化程度低的蔬菜生产经营方式难以保障蔬菜质量安全;即使加大罚款力度,提高抽检率,仍然效果甚微,反而大大加重了政府的监管成本。
(2)一旦外部环境有对蔬菜质量安全的要求,供应链就会实现某种程度的一体化,并且,对质量安全的要求越高,供应链的一体化程度就越高,而一体化程度越高,则农户规模就会越大。简而言之:供应链中纵向的协作越紧密(一体化程度越高),其提供的蔬菜的质量安全水平越高。
(3)蔬菜供应链的一体化程度越高,组织化程度越强,供应链中参与方之间的关系越紧密,政府的监管效率越高,成本越低。政府通过加强对供应链末端的监管,充分利用供应链的内部治理机制来控制蔬菜的质量安全,将政府监管压力、市场压力和市场信号迅速传递到整个供应链的所有参与者,降低政府的监管成本,同时推动市场机制演化,形成公私合作治理机制。
(4)相对于我国现行的分段式蔬菜质量安全监管体制而言,一体化监管是一种交易成本更低、效率更高、效果更好的监管体制。政府的一体化监管和供应链的一体化是两种有效率的信号生产与知识管理制度,相互依赖、协同演化。
(5)信任、文化和道德等非正式制度,也是重要的蔬菜质量安全的治理机制,对我国蔬菜质量安全的演化路径和演化速度都起着非常重要的作用。
最后,根据分析和研究结论,提出相应的关于保障蔬菜质量安全以及食品安全等方面的政策建议,从而为我国政府相关部门和人员制定政策提供可靠的参考与依据。
In recent years, the residue of pesticides of vegetables still generally exceeds standard, the poisoning of edible vegetables happens occasionally, and the export trade dispute increases day by day in our country. The situation is very unoptimistic, and the problem is increasingly striking. China government has issued some policies and law since the end of 20th century, but the effect is obsolete. Safe vegetables help to maintain sustainable development, social stability and harmonious, so how to guarantee vegetables safety are both helpful to improve people's life and health level and important condition of strengthening industry's competitiveness of vegetables of our country. At the same time, it becomes more and more important and urgent.
Based on the existing research results, employing the theory of economics and behavioral science, case study and induction method, the research analyses the relationships between modes of organization, government regulation and food safety. Furthermore, in this thesis, a recent method to model and simulate system is present, which is based on the multi-agent, and is workable and easy to implement a multi-agent system. And then, the supply chain of vegetable is modeled and simulated with this agent-based method, which is including government, wholesaler and farmer. Some experiments through computer simulation, demonstrate that the relationship of correlative variable and the evolutionary process of agnets. The main conclusions herein are as follows:
(1) At the present stage, disperse and small farmers are difficult to guarantee quality and safety of vegetables. The effect is poor even if the intension of regulation is increased. On the contrary, it increases the burden of government.
(2) Organizational modes of supply chain affect to ensure vegetable safety. The relationship between vegetable safety and organizational structures of supply chain is positive correlation.
(3) The degree of supply chain integration work on the efficiency of the government. Higher the degree of integration is, stronger organization extent is, and the more efficient regulation becomes.
(4) Integrated regulation system is more effective and businesslike to the distributed regulation system. Due to the disadvantage of China's vegetable safety regulation system, integrated regulation system is feasible way to innovate.
(5) Informal institution such as trust, culture and moral norm have affect on the evolutional path and speed of vegetable safety. On the other hand, it is also a significant governance mechanism of vegetable.
In the end, based on the research conclusions, some strategic suggestion are put forward. It will provide scientific basis for the government to guarantee quality and safety of vegetables.
引文
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