创新与经济增长关联性及其贡献变化率测度研究
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摘要
改革开放以来,我国经济高速发展,保持了20多年的快速增长,截止到2008年,我国综合国力不断提高,经济总量已位列世界第三位。但同时,我国经济的高速增长,也存在很大的问题,走的是一条高消耗、高投入、高排放,难循环、不协调、低效率的粗放型经济增长的路子。因此,经济增长的质量问题、经济增长方式的转变问题受到决策者和学术界的高度关注。
因此,本文的研究以上述问题作为切入点,拟在借鉴国内外研究成果的基础上展开研究,具体表现在:在理论层面上,综合应用创新经济学、经济增长理论、发展经济学和技术经济学的基本理论;在数据的调研方面采取文献调查、社会调查和专家咨询的方式;在数据的处理方面,计算创新活动与经济增长的关联性利用Eviews5.1软件,计算创新活动对经济增长的贡献的变化率利用Deap2.1软件,在原始数据向所需要数据的运算方面采用数量经济学方法等现代经济学分析方法;最终定位于提升创新能力促进经济增长和提升创新能力促进经济增长的有效性,从而最终转变经济增长的方式。希望通过本文的研究能够对国家或者省里,更或者在一个企业层面能够对他们进行行之有效的理论层面的说服作用。
China has rapidly developed in economic and maintained the rapid growth for more than 20 years since the reform and opening policy, as of 2008, China's comprehensive capacity constantly improved and the total economic has ranked third in the world, people's living standards have generally improved and its international status has been rising. In particular, in the past three years the growth rate has noticeably accelerated in 2006, 2007 and 2008, the average GDP has reached more than 9.0%, respectively, 10.7%, 11.3% and 9.0%. The potential has been fully developed and turned to be a situation of high efficiency, high growth, low inflation. At the same time, the rapid economic growth of China has caused a large problem, which to a large extent relied mainly on capital investment, resource consumption, and it is the way of high-consumption, high investment, high discharge, difficult cycle, uncoordinated, inefficient extensive economic growth. Therefore, it is highly concerned by policy makers and academics about the quality of economic growth, economic growth mode transformation problems, it has entered a new height of the discussion and has also brought a macroeconomic policy adjusted accordingly. Specifically, this phenomenon reflects that there are still many urgent contradictions and problems to be solved in economic growth of China. These problems are mainly focus on the following area: the economic rapid growth, to a certain extent, depends on capital, labor and natural resources; high consumption and low efficiency; high input, high consumption and low efficiency has led to high pollution and high emissions; industrial technology relaying on outsource and so on.
Therefore, the paper begins with the above issues and insists use the method of qualitative and quantitative analysis, theoretical and empirical research based on the research results at home and abroad. On the theoretical level, the paper build construct a theoretical basis by integrated application theories of innovation and economics, economic growth theory, development economics and technology, On the data research level, the paper applies the method of literature surveys, social surveys and expert advice, On data processing, the paper calculates the relationship between innovative activities and economic growth with software of Eviews5.1, and use software Deap2.1 to calculate the contribution change rate of innovation activities to economic growth, and applies modern economic analysis methods, such as quantitative economics to transform original data to useful data, finally positioned to enhance innovation capacity to promote economic growth and enhance innovation capacity to promote economic growth and the effectiveness, and ultimately transform the economic growth mode. It is hopeful that this research can have a theoretical power to state government, provincial or enterprises, so that they could give up their little immediate interests and get long-term gains and social benefits for future generations.
The paper has three parts, the first part is the theoretical research, the second part is empirical research, and the third part is suggestions according to proposed issue.
Part 1, theoretical research is the basis of this paper, and also is support to further research.
1. The paper has deeply analyzed the basic theory, including innovation theory, such as the concept, mechanism and objective of innovation. Economic growth theory, such as the concept and the impact of factors of economic growth and comparison between economic growth and economic development. Economic growth quantity research, including, the definition, measure indicators, importance and limitation of economic growth quantity. Economic growth quality research, such as the definition, measure indicators and the relationship between economic growth quality, economic growth speed and economic benefit. Economic growth mode research, such as the content and the type of economic growth mode.
2. The paper has analyzed the mechanism of innovation activities having effected economic growth from the theoretical level. The paper has analyzed the definition of innovation-driven economic growth, the impact factors of innovation on economic growth, and the specific factors the innovation-driven economic growth which included three group of innovation and technological progress, technological progress and economic growth, innovation and economic growth. Therefore, the paper set forth that innovation firstly impact technological progress which play a important role in promoting technological progress, and then technological progress promote economic growth which is the second promoting factor except input factors. It is a indirect impact of innovation activities on economic growth by the aforesaid way.
Part 2, empirical Study. This part is the key points and difficult points of this paper, coming to the research perspectives of this paper, and it is the core of this paper.
1. Confirm the relevance between innovation activity and economic growth in terms of empirical study. Approach the relationship between innovation activity and economic growth through consulting and calculating the amount of patent licensing and GDP at constant prices 1985-2007. Above all, fix object of study, using alternative indexes the amount of patent licensing and GDP at constant prices to weigh the relationship between innovation activity and economic growth. and then process ADF Unit Root Test, and the outcome is primitive sequence is unstable at all, that is to say, unit root exists, at the same time first order is stable, so cointegration test is available; after that, educe the proportional relation between innovation activity and economic growth is 1:1.53 in our country in the recent 22 years, as well as a long-term cointegration relationship is existent. Next, Derive disequilibrium error of patent licensing totals is -0.006 and correct GDP at constant prices in current year; at last, draw the conclusion that there is bi-directional causality between innovation activity and economic growth, and innovation for economic growth optimal lag phase is 4 years, as well as economic growth for innovation is 5 years. The study results have a strong inspiration to the enterprise to guide them to invest in the innovation should not be too short-sighted, after all, innovation and effectiveness in the promotion of growth with 4-year lag. It also may explain the results to enterprise and government.
2. Derive the innovative activities contribute to economic growth in the rate of change throughout the country and 29 provinces 1985-2007 through empirical analysis. With the analysis of the average MALMQUIST index, the rate of technological progress and efficiency change index, the cumulative MALMQUIST productivity index and the rate of technological progress and efficiency change index, from the point of view of RTFP, we can draw the conclusion:①Overall, innovation's contribution to economic growth is still enormous from 1985 to 2007, whether it is relative the previous year's average of a year or a cumulative value of the provinces are greater than 1, meaning that contributions are positive to reach tens of percent or even more than 100 percent.②The contribution of technological innovations on economic growth is quite clear, whether the annual average, compared with previous year's accumulated value of the provinces are greater than 1, and are essentially larger than the rate of increase of total factor productivity, which describes that the technological innovation's contribution to economic growth has played a leading role absolutely. This indicates that our country has made great success on technology innovation in the recent 23 years.③The contribution soft technology innovation to economic growth increases relatively slow, the national average, compared with previous year's average is less than 1, indicating that overall, soft technology the contribution innovation to economic growth is negative. Many provinces which sub-province cumulated are less than 1, even if which is greater than 1, is also in the vicinity of 1, indicating that the contribution soft technology innovation to economic growth is close to or still lower than in 1985 basically.
Part 3: Solutions Study. This part is the end of this paper, presenting solutions to the problems of this study concerns.
Put forward the advice of our country should advance innovation ability to promote economic growth. There are two aspects. The first one is how to advance innovation ability; the second one is how to transmit innovation ability to economic growth effectively. At the aspect of advancing innovation ability, specific measures are raising national inspiration, advocating cluster innovation mechanism, optimizing macro-environment of innovation and clearing the role the government plays in building an innovation-oriented country; at the aspect of improving the effectiveness of economic growth promoted by innovation activity, specific measures are consummating scientific and technical payoffs mechanism of transformation and increasing the construction of soft technology innovation.
In a word, this study has theoretical significance and practical guiding significance, but enslaved to capacity limitation subjectively and resource constraint objectively, and time’s so short, there are some shortcomings inevitably. Author deems, the aspects of whether there is conductivity innovation to economic growth which writer considers and the cause and factor analysis of lag phase in the correlation study on innovation activities and economic growth need to be studied in depth in future.
因此,本文的研究以上述问题作为切入点,拟在借鉴国内外研究成果的基础上展开研究,具体表现在:在理论层面上,综合应用创新经济学、经济增长理论、发展经济学和技术经济学的基本理论;在数据的调研方面采取文献调查、社会调查和专家咨询的方式;在数据的处理方面,计算创新活动与经济增长的关联性利用Eviews5.1软件,计算创新活动对经济增长的贡献的变化率利用Deap2.1软件,在原始数据向所需要数据的运算方面采用数量经济学方法等现代经济学分析方法;最终定位于提升创新能力促进经济增长和提升创新能力促进经济增长的有效性,从而最终转变经济增长的方式。希望通过本文的研究能够对国家或者省里,更或者在一个企业层面能够对他们进行行之有效的理论层面的说服作用。
China has rapidly developed in economic and maintained the rapid growth for more than 20 years since the reform and opening policy, as of 2008, China's comprehensive capacity constantly improved and the total economic has ranked third in the world, people's living standards have generally improved and its international status has been rising. In particular, in the past three years the growth rate has noticeably accelerated in 2006, 2007 and 2008, the average GDP has reached more than 9.0%, respectively, 10.7%, 11.3% and 9.0%. The potential has been fully developed and turned to be a situation of high efficiency, high growth, low inflation. At the same time, the rapid economic growth of China has caused a large problem, which to a large extent relied mainly on capital investment, resource consumption, and it is the way of high-consumption, high investment, high discharge, difficult cycle, uncoordinated, inefficient extensive economic growth. Therefore, it is highly concerned by policy makers and academics about the quality of economic growth, economic growth mode transformation problems, it has entered a new height of the discussion and has also brought a macroeconomic policy adjusted accordingly. Specifically, this phenomenon reflects that there are still many urgent contradictions and problems to be solved in economic growth of China. These problems are mainly focus on the following area: the economic rapid growth, to a certain extent, depends on capital, labor and natural resources; high consumption and low efficiency; high input, high consumption and low efficiency has led to high pollution and high emissions; industrial technology relaying on outsource and so on.
Therefore, the paper begins with the above issues and insists use the method of qualitative and quantitative analysis, theoretical and empirical research based on the research results at home and abroad. On the theoretical level, the paper build construct a theoretical basis by integrated application theories of innovation and economics, economic growth theory, development economics and technology, On the data research level, the paper applies the method of literature surveys, social surveys and expert advice, On data processing, the paper calculates the relationship between innovative activities and economic growth with software of Eviews5.1, and use software Deap2.1 to calculate the contribution change rate of innovation activities to economic growth, and applies modern economic analysis methods, such as quantitative economics to transform original data to useful data, finally positioned to enhance innovation capacity to promote economic growth and enhance innovation capacity to promote economic growth and the effectiveness, and ultimately transform the economic growth mode. It is hopeful that this research can have a theoretical power to state government, provincial or enterprises, so that they could give up their little immediate interests and get long-term gains and social benefits for future generations.
The paper has three parts, the first part is the theoretical research, the second part is empirical research, and the third part is suggestions according to proposed issue.
Part 1, theoretical research is the basis of this paper, and also is support to further research.
1. The paper has deeply analyzed the basic theory, including innovation theory, such as the concept, mechanism and objective of innovation. Economic growth theory, such as the concept and the impact of factors of economic growth and comparison between economic growth and economic development. Economic growth quantity research, including, the definition, measure indicators, importance and limitation of economic growth quantity. Economic growth quality research, such as the definition, measure indicators and the relationship between economic growth quality, economic growth speed and economic benefit. Economic growth mode research, such as the content and the type of economic growth mode.
2. The paper has analyzed the mechanism of innovation activities having effected economic growth from the theoretical level. The paper has analyzed the definition of innovation-driven economic growth, the impact factors of innovation on economic growth, and the specific factors the innovation-driven economic growth which included three group of innovation and technological progress, technological progress and economic growth, innovation and economic growth. Therefore, the paper set forth that innovation firstly impact technological progress which play a important role in promoting technological progress, and then technological progress promote economic growth which is the second promoting factor except input factors. It is a indirect impact of innovation activities on economic growth by the aforesaid way.
Part 2, empirical Study. This part is the key points and difficult points of this paper, coming to the research perspectives of this paper, and it is the core of this paper.
1. Confirm the relevance between innovation activity and economic growth in terms of empirical study. Approach the relationship between innovation activity and economic growth through consulting and calculating the amount of patent licensing and GDP at constant prices 1985-2007. Above all, fix object of study, using alternative indexes the amount of patent licensing and GDP at constant prices to weigh the relationship between innovation activity and economic growth. and then process ADF Unit Root Test, and the outcome is primitive sequence is unstable at all, that is to say, unit root exists, at the same time first order is stable, so cointegration test is available; after that, educe the proportional relation between innovation activity and economic growth is 1:1.53 in our country in the recent 22 years, as well as a long-term cointegration relationship is existent. Next, Derive disequilibrium error of patent licensing totals is -0.006 and correct GDP at constant prices in current year; at last, draw the conclusion that there is bi-directional causality between innovation activity and economic growth, and innovation for economic growth optimal lag phase is 4 years, as well as economic growth for innovation is 5 years. The study results have a strong inspiration to the enterprise to guide them to invest in the innovation should not be too short-sighted, after all, innovation and effectiveness in the promotion of growth with 4-year lag. It also may explain the results to enterprise and government.
2. Derive the innovative activities contribute to economic growth in the rate of change throughout the country and 29 provinces 1985-2007 through empirical analysis. With the analysis of the average MALMQUIST index, the rate of technological progress and efficiency change index, the cumulative MALMQUIST productivity index and the rate of technological progress and efficiency change index, from the point of view of RTFP, we can draw the conclusion:①Overall, innovation's contribution to economic growth is still enormous from 1985 to 2007, whether it is relative the previous year's average of a year or a cumulative value of the provinces are greater than 1, meaning that contributions are positive to reach tens of percent or even more than 100 percent.②The contribution of technological innovations on economic growth is quite clear, whether the annual average, compared with previous year's accumulated value of the provinces are greater than 1, and are essentially larger than the rate of increase of total factor productivity, which describes that the technological innovation's contribution to economic growth has played a leading role absolutely. This indicates that our country has made great success on technology innovation in the recent 23 years.③The contribution soft technology innovation to economic growth increases relatively slow, the national average, compared with previous year's average is less than 1, indicating that overall, soft technology the contribution innovation to economic growth is negative. Many provinces which sub-province cumulated are less than 1, even if which is greater than 1, is also in the vicinity of 1, indicating that the contribution soft technology innovation to economic growth is close to or still lower than in 1985 basically.
Part 3: Solutions Study. This part is the end of this paper, presenting solutions to the problems of this study concerns.
Put forward the advice of our country should advance innovation ability to promote economic growth. There are two aspects. The first one is how to advance innovation ability; the second one is how to transmit innovation ability to economic growth effectively. At the aspect of advancing innovation ability, specific measures are raising national inspiration, advocating cluster innovation mechanism, optimizing macro-environment of innovation and clearing the role the government plays in building an innovation-oriented country; at the aspect of improving the effectiveness of economic growth promoted by innovation activity, specific measures are consummating scientific and technical payoffs mechanism of transformation and increasing the construction of soft technology innovation.
In a word, this study has theoretical significance and practical guiding significance, but enslaved to capacity limitation subjectively and resource constraint objectively, and time’s so short, there are some shortcomings inevitably. Author deems, the aspects of whether there is conductivity innovation to economic growth which writer considers and the cause and factor analysis of lag phase in the correlation study on innovation activities and economic growth need to be studied in depth in future.
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