出口与中国工业生产率：机理分析与实证检验
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摘要
国际贸易对于一国经济的影响,是贸易经济学的一个重要而持续的研究论题,也是近年聚焦中国经济增长有关研究的重要论题之一。围绕该论题分门别类的研究虽然很多,但也存在一些明显的偏向。其中关于贸易与增长关系的研究方面,重在考察了两个方面的内容,一是出口之经济增长效应,二是进口技术溢出之生产率增长效应。对于出口,较多的实证研究是对“出口是经济增长发动机”假说的检验,关注出口之生产率增长效应的研究较少,更鲜有研究深入分析出口与生产率之间的机理并对之进行实证检验。本文选择了一个为迄今研究所相对忽略了的视野切入,即出口之生产率增进效应来考察出口对经济影响的另一种重要意义,目的在于揭示出口对于中国这样的转型经济大国生产率变化的影响。这样一种研究的理论意义,无疑在于丰富现有围绕贸易与增长关系的理论分析,为考察出口与经济增长关系提供另一重要的研究视角,其现实意义在于发现出口促进中国工业生产率增长的深层原因及其存在的问题,并提出相应的政策建议。
理论分析方面,本文首先对贸易理论关于出口与生产率的论点进行了归纳整理和评价,提出出口促进生产率增长的三个机理：规模经济、技术溢出和要素重置。在此基础上,对引起出口贸易促进生产率增长的三个机理进行详细分析与深入探讨,以期发现出口贸易促进生产率增长的深层原因。通过对贸易理论和典型案例的分析表明,出口规模经济主要表现在静态的内部规模经济与外部规模经济对生产率水平的促进作用和出口“干中学”引起的动态规模经济对生产率增长的促进作用；而出口技术溢出则主要表现在物化技术溢出和非物化技术溢出。物化技术溢出主要体现在出口在产品模仿和逆向工程带来的技术进步对生产率的促进作用,而非物化技术溢出主要体现在出口企业同进口商联系过程中,进口商对出口企业的人员培训、技术服务等对企业技术效率的提升带来的生产率的增长；要素重置作用主要体现在要素从生产率较低的非出口行业转移到生产率较高的出口行业带来的行业间的要素配置,以及由于企业的进入与退出、以及企业市场份额变化引起的生产要素从生产率低的企业流向生产率高的企业而带来产业内的要素重置。但是,在国内存在扭曲的情况下,出口贸易扩张可能加大要素非优化配置,从而降低生产率水平。
实证研究的目的在于检验出口对生产率的促进作用以及出口促进生产率增长的三个机理的不同表现,为此主要综合运用了GMM估计方法、静态面板估计方法和相关性分析方对出口促进中国工业行业生产率的机理进行检验。实证检验的第一部分主要通过构建总体回归模型,运用GMM估计方法和引入出口贸易与规模经济、技术溢出和要素配置三个交互项对出口贸易促进生产率的三个机制进行检验。实证检验的结果表明出口依存度的提高有助于我国工业行业提高全要素生产率和技术效率,但是出口对技术进步的影响不太显著。从出口贸易促进生产率增长的三个机理看,出口规模效应对工业行业生产率的增长起到了一定的推动作用,而出口技术溢出对工业行业生产率增长的促进作用最显著,而要素重置作用对工业行业生产率增长起到了阻碍作用。从控制变量看,国内研发投入对我国工业行业生产率的促进作用较大,而进口依存度对工业行业生产率的影响有限；第二部分对出口贸易影响全要素生产率的机理进行深入分析,结果发现出口贸易与行业规模的扩张并没有带来中国工业行业规模效率的改善,主要原因是中国的出口行业以劳动密集型工业行业为主,而这类行业企业规模普遍较小,无法形成规模收益递增的市场结构而阻碍了出口规模经济效应的发挥；从技术溢出的角度看,出口技术溢出对中国工业行业全要素生产率的促进作用大于进口技术溢出对全要素生产率的作用,进一步分析表明出口技术溢出主要对工业行业技术效率产生了重要影响,而对技术进步的影响不显著。技术溢出的行业特征反映出口技术溢出对出口行业生产率的促进作用大于对非出口行业生产率的促进作用。技术溢出的贸易方式反映产业内贸易对我国工业行业的技术溢出没有产生积极影响；从要素重置的角度看,我国工业行业总体要素配置效率较低,出口行业的要素配置效率低于非出口行业的要素配置效率,主要原因可能在于我国国内区域市场分割、生产要素市场不完善以及要素价格扭曲导致了出口贸易的要素重置作用,而使得生产要素无法得到最优化配置。
总之,本文以出口与生产率关系为视角进行的理论分析和基于中国经济转型以来出口与工业生产率数据的实证检验,有助于我们从生产率增长的角度重新理解出口对中国经济增长的重要作用。而论文对获取更多的出口利益提出的政策建议则对制订合适的出口发展政策具有一定的现实意义。
The effect of international trade on a country's economic growth is one of the most important topics in trade economics. Academic researches focusing on relationship between trade and economic growth fall in two main groups so far. One mainly put on the effect of export on growth, the other, on that of import on productivity growth. As far as the effect of export on the economic growth, most researchers concentrated on testing the hypothesis of export as "engine of economic growth". Few papers studied the relationship between export and productivity. As far as the mechanism of the export and productivity is concerned, little attention has been paid to this field. This dissertation will study the relationship between export and productivity growth and analyze the mechanism of export stimulating productivity growth, In the meantime, this dissertation will use Chinese industrial data of export and productivity from 1992-2007 to testify the relationship between export and productivity growth and found which mechanism comes into effect.
In theory, this dissertation analyzes the mechanisms of export and productivity based on the trade theory and literature. The three mechanisms are scale economics, technology spillover and resource reallocation. Next, this thesis describes the phenomenon of China's industrial export and its productivity. The volume of China's industrial export becoming larger and the output value of China's industries have increased largely. However, the output value of export and non-export industries differs largely. Then this thesis study the typical enterprises'export and technical change. Enterprises, which engage in the export activities, have more patents than the enterprises which not engaging in the export activities. As far as the resource reallocation mechanism, this thesis did not found the evidence showing that capital and labor shifting from non-export industry to export industry. Based on the literature review and the economic phenomenon, this thesis analyzes the fundamental reason which export will accelerate the productivity growth rate. Export increases productivity level through the internal and external static economics, and it also accelerates productivity growth rates through "learning by doing" effect. Technology spillover lies in the embodied and disembodied technology spillover. Embodied technology spillover includes the product imitation and reverse engineering. Disembodied technology spillover refers to the human resource training and technical assistance. Resources reallocation often refers to labor and capital shifting between industries and within industries.
As far as the experimental analysis, this thesis mainly deals with the export and total factor productivity. The relation between export and labor productivity is in the appendix. Firstly, this thesis study the relationship between export and TFP in a unified econometric model and assess the mechanism through introducing interaction terms. Result shows that it is export but not import promotes Chinese industrial productivity. Next, this thesis analyzes reasons why some mechanisms don't work well. Results show that scale efficiencies of China's industries have not changed because of the export. Technology spillover through export mainly promotes China industrial technical efficiency but has no effect on technical change. Technology spillover has more effect on the export industry than non-export industry. As regards to resource reallocation, experimental results show that allocation efficiency of Chinese industry is very low, and no evidence show that export can change the allocation efficiency. The reason is that our country has no integral market and factor price distortion has existed.
In a word, the research on the relationship between export and productivity including mechanism analysis and empirical test based on the data of export and Chinese industrial productivity will help us understand the importance of export to economic growth from the angel of productivity. And the suggestions on how to acquire more export benefit will avail government make appropriate trade and economic policies.
理论分析方面,本文首先对贸易理论关于出口与生产率的论点进行了归纳整理和评价,提出出口促进生产率增长的三个机理：规模经济、技术溢出和要素重置。在此基础上,对引起出口贸易促进生产率增长的三个机理进行详细分析与深入探讨,以期发现出口贸易促进生产率增长的深层原因。通过对贸易理论和典型案例的分析表明,出口规模经济主要表现在静态的内部规模经济与外部规模经济对生产率水平的促进作用和出口“干中学”引起的动态规模经济对生产率增长的促进作用；而出口技术溢出则主要表现在物化技术溢出和非物化技术溢出。物化技术溢出主要体现在出口在产品模仿和逆向工程带来的技术进步对生产率的促进作用,而非物化技术溢出主要体现在出口企业同进口商联系过程中,进口商对出口企业的人员培训、技术服务等对企业技术效率的提升带来的生产率的增长；要素重置作用主要体现在要素从生产率较低的非出口行业转移到生产率较高的出口行业带来的行业间的要素配置,以及由于企业的进入与退出、以及企业市场份额变化引起的生产要素从生产率低的企业流向生产率高的企业而带来产业内的要素重置。但是,在国内存在扭曲的情况下,出口贸易扩张可能加大要素非优化配置,从而降低生产率水平。
实证研究的目的在于检验出口对生产率的促进作用以及出口促进生产率增长的三个机理的不同表现,为此主要综合运用了GMM估计方法、静态面板估计方法和相关性分析方对出口促进中国工业行业生产率的机理进行检验。实证检验的第一部分主要通过构建总体回归模型,运用GMM估计方法和引入出口贸易与规模经济、技术溢出和要素配置三个交互项对出口贸易促进生产率的三个机制进行检验。实证检验的结果表明出口依存度的提高有助于我国工业行业提高全要素生产率和技术效率,但是出口对技术进步的影响不太显著。从出口贸易促进生产率增长的三个机理看,出口规模效应对工业行业生产率的增长起到了一定的推动作用,而出口技术溢出对工业行业生产率增长的促进作用最显著,而要素重置作用对工业行业生产率增长起到了阻碍作用。从控制变量看,国内研发投入对我国工业行业生产率的促进作用较大,而进口依存度对工业行业生产率的影响有限；第二部分对出口贸易影响全要素生产率的机理进行深入分析,结果发现出口贸易与行业规模的扩张并没有带来中国工业行业规模效率的改善,主要原因是中国的出口行业以劳动密集型工业行业为主,而这类行业企业规模普遍较小,无法形成规模收益递增的市场结构而阻碍了出口规模经济效应的发挥；从技术溢出的角度看,出口技术溢出对中国工业行业全要素生产率的促进作用大于进口技术溢出对全要素生产率的作用,进一步分析表明出口技术溢出主要对工业行业技术效率产生了重要影响,而对技术进步的影响不显著。技术溢出的行业特征反映出口技术溢出对出口行业生产率的促进作用大于对非出口行业生产率的促进作用。技术溢出的贸易方式反映产业内贸易对我国工业行业的技术溢出没有产生积极影响；从要素重置的角度看,我国工业行业总体要素配置效率较低,出口行业的要素配置效率低于非出口行业的要素配置效率,主要原因可能在于我国国内区域市场分割、生产要素市场不完善以及要素价格扭曲导致了出口贸易的要素重置作用,而使得生产要素无法得到最优化配置。
总之,本文以出口与生产率关系为视角进行的理论分析和基于中国经济转型以来出口与工业生产率数据的实证检验,有助于我们从生产率增长的角度重新理解出口对中国经济增长的重要作用。而论文对获取更多的出口利益提出的政策建议则对制订合适的出口发展政策具有一定的现实意义。
The effect of international trade on a country's economic growth is one of the most important topics in trade economics. Academic researches focusing on relationship between trade and economic growth fall in two main groups so far. One mainly put on the effect of export on growth, the other, on that of import on productivity growth. As far as the effect of export on the economic growth, most researchers concentrated on testing the hypothesis of export as "engine of economic growth". Few papers studied the relationship between export and productivity. As far as the mechanism of the export and productivity is concerned, little attention has been paid to this field. This dissertation will study the relationship between export and productivity growth and analyze the mechanism of export stimulating productivity growth, In the meantime, this dissertation will use Chinese industrial data of export and productivity from 1992-2007 to testify the relationship between export and productivity growth and found which mechanism comes into effect.
In theory, this dissertation analyzes the mechanisms of export and productivity based on the trade theory and literature. The three mechanisms are scale economics, technology spillover and resource reallocation. Next, this thesis describes the phenomenon of China's industrial export and its productivity. The volume of China's industrial export becoming larger and the output value of China's industries have increased largely. However, the output value of export and non-export industries differs largely. Then this thesis study the typical enterprises'export and technical change. Enterprises, which engage in the export activities, have more patents than the enterprises which not engaging in the export activities. As far as the resource reallocation mechanism, this thesis did not found the evidence showing that capital and labor shifting from non-export industry to export industry. Based on the literature review and the economic phenomenon, this thesis analyzes the fundamental reason which export will accelerate the productivity growth rate. Export increases productivity level through the internal and external static economics, and it also accelerates productivity growth rates through "learning by doing" effect. Technology spillover lies in the embodied and disembodied technology spillover. Embodied technology spillover includes the product imitation and reverse engineering. Disembodied technology spillover refers to the human resource training and technical assistance. Resources reallocation often refers to labor and capital shifting between industries and within industries.
As far as the experimental analysis, this thesis mainly deals with the export and total factor productivity. The relation between export and labor productivity is in the appendix. Firstly, this thesis study the relationship between export and TFP in a unified econometric model and assess the mechanism through introducing interaction terms. Result shows that it is export but not import promotes Chinese industrial productivity. Next, this thesis analyzes reasons why some mechanisms don't work well. Results show that scale efficiencies of China's industries have not changed because of the export. Technology spillover through export mainly promotes China industrial technical efficiency but has no effect on technical change. Technology spillover has more effect on the export industry than non-export industry. As regards to resource reallocation, experimental results show that allocation efficiency of Chinese industry is very low, and no evidence show that export can change the allocation efficiency. The reason is that our country has no integral market and factor price distortion has existed.
In a word, the research on the relationship between export and productivity including mechanism analysis and empirical test based on the data of export and Chinese industrial productivity will help us understand the importance of export to economic growth from the angel of productivity. And the suggestions on how to acquire more export benefit will avail government make appropriate trade and economic policies.
引文
1 1993年以后为食品加工业和食品制造业的加总值。
2 1993年以后为普通设备制造业(2003年以后为通用设备制造业)和专用设备制造业合并而成。
3 采掘业具体包括：S06——S10,劳动密集型行业包括S13、S15、S17——S24,资本密集型行业包括S25、S28——S34,技术密集型行业包括S26、S27、S35、S37,S39——S41。
1 具体检验结论可参考赵伟,李淑贞.出口与企业生产率：由实证而理论的最新拓展,国际贸易问题,2007(7)：PP24—25.
1 具体分析可参考赵伟,李淑贞.出口与企业生产率：由实证而理论的最新拓展,国际贸易问题,2007(7)：PP25—26.
1 金碚(2008)认为中国工业改革的三个阶段分别为1978—1992、1993—2000和2001—2008,参见金碚,中国工业改革开放30年,中国工业经济,2008(5)：5—30.
1 新帕尔格雷夫经济学词典,经济科学出版社,第二卷,第84—87页。
2.马歇尔：《经济学原理》(上册),商务印书馆,1981年,第279-280页。
1 克鲁格曼著,黄胜强译.克鲁格曼国际贸易新理论,P13。
1 有关贸易开放与产业集聚关系的国外经验检验的综述参考Nishikimi (2007).
1 Maskus, Encouraging international technology transfer, International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development, Geneva, Switzerland,2004:P8.
1 逆向工程是指通过对某种产品的结构、功能、运作进行分析、分解、研究后,制作出功能相近,但又不完全一样的产品过程,参见维基百科“逆向工程”词条。
1 Bhagwati.Trade-Diverting Customs Unions and Welfare-Improvement:A Clarification.The Economic Journal, 1971, Vol.81, No.323..
1 典型的研究有盛誉(2005)、史晋川,赵自芳(2007)。
3 典型的研究有何凡(2002)、王云飞,朱钟棣(2009)。
1 测度产业内贸易水平的主要指标主要有Balassa指数、GL指数、边际产业内贸易指数、水平产业内贸易指数和垂直产业内贸易指数。本文主要分析中国工业行业的GL指数,关于GL指数的具体计算方法参见赵伟主编,《国际贸易——理论、政策与现实问题》一书,东北财经大学出版社,2004年第1版。
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2 1993年以后为普通设备制造业(2003年以后为通用设备制造业)和专用设备制造业合并而成。
3 采掘业具体包括：S06——S10,劳动密集型行业包括S13、S15、S17——S24,资本密集型行业包括S25、S28——S34,技术密集型行业包括S26、S27、S35、S37,S39——S41。
1 具体检验结论可参考赵伟,李淑贞.出口与企业生产率：由实证而理论的最新拓展,国际贸易问题,2007(7)：PP24—25.
1 具体分析可参考赵伟,李淑贞.出口与企业生产率：由实证而理论的最新拓展,国际贸易问题,2007(7)：PP25—26.
1 金碚(2008)认为中国工业改革的三个阶段分别为1978—1992、1993—2000和2001—2008,参见金碚,中国工业改革开放30年,中国工业经济,2008(5)：5—30.
1 新帕尔格雷夫经济学词典,经济科学出版社,第二卷,第84—87页。
2.马歇尔：《经济学原理》(上册),商务印书馆,1981年,第279-280页。
1 克鲁格曼著,黄胜强译.克鲁格曼国际贸易新理论,P13。
1 有关贸易开放与产业集聚关系的国外经验检验的综述参考Nishikimi (2007).
1 Maskus, Encouraging international technology transfer, International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development, Geneva, Switzerland,2004:P8.
1 逆向工程是指通过对某种产品的结构、功能、运作进行分析、分解、研究后,制作出功能相近,但又不完全一样的产品过程,参见维基百科“逆向工程”词条。
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1 典型的研究有盛誉(2005)、史晋川,赵自芳(2007)。
3 典型的研究有何凡(2002)、王云飞,朱钟棣(2009)。
1 测度产业内贸易水平的主要指标主要有Balassa指数、GL指数、边际产业内贸易指数、水平产业内贸易指数和垂直产业内贸易指数。本文主要分析中国工业行业的GL指数,关于GL指数的具体计算方法参见赵伟主编,《国际贸易——理论、政策与现实问题》一书,东北财经大学出版社,2004年第1版。
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