能源富集贫困区农村转型发展态势与优化战略
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摘要
农村是中国生态环境和社会发展的重要区域载体,农村发展事关国家社会安全、粮食安全和生态安全。能源富集贫困区作为能源富集、生态脆弱、农村贫困的复合区域,成为人地关系与农村发展研究的焦点地区。该区域在能源资源大规模开发带动区域经济快速增长的同时,造成了区域生态环境的严重破坏,农村特色产业发展滞后,在一定程度上加剧了当地农村贫困化程度,因而针对区域农村转型发展特征与问题,研究提出适应新时期科学发展观要求的优化策略,具有重要的现实意义和价值。
本文以陕北榆林市为例,采取从面上切入与点上突破相结合、理论解析与实证评价相辅佐,运用数学模型模拟与专家咨询决策的定性与定量相结合的研究方法,从城乡统筹、人地和谐、可持续发展的理论高度出发,刻画榆林市农村转型发展的轨迹,重点揭示研究区产业结构、就业结构、农村生活条件等演变规律,阐明农村发展的主要影响因素,构建能源富集贫困区农村发展状态评估模型,评价农村发展状态演变趋势,提出能源富集贫困区农村转型发展的主导模式与发展战略,为能源富集、农村贫困、生态脆弱的榆林市农村可持续发展提供理论参考与决策依据。
通过对榆林市农村转型发展进行系统研究,得出以下主要结论:
(1)农村发展的主要影响因素分析表明:①1975-2005年榆林市降水以67.78mm/10a的速率减少,春冬两季气温以1.45℃/10a、0.64℃/10a的速率提升。干旱化降低了粮食的产量和草场的载畜能力,使土地退化有进一步加重趋势。②水资源胁迫程度表明,2000-2006年榆林市水资源胁迫度已接近重度胁迫,且以平均0.0009/a的速率增长,社会经济对水资源的胁迫增长最快,达0.0159/a。③大规模能源资源开发造成当地生态环境被强烈的干扰,致使农村土地生产力下降,生态环境被破坏。④农村贫困也在一定程度上制约当地社会经济的持续发展,造成“农村贫穷—人口增长—土地垦殖加大—生态环境恶化—贫困加剧”的恶性循环。⑤农村发展的政策演变成为农村转型发展的主要驱动力。
(2)农村转型发展轨迹显示:①1985年神府煤田开发、1992年市场经济推进、1998年国家能源重化工基地建设、2004年农村制度深化改革成为改革开放以来该地区农村发展的转型点。农村发展大致经历了复苏发展-缓慢发展-波动发展-减速发展-加速发展的过程。②产业结构转换速度与转换方向结果表明,1978-2003年,榆林市三次产业结构转换速度呈现逐渐增加的态势;1998-2003年产业转换速度达到最大值0.2755。产业转换方向系数表明,第二产业比例上升,一、三产业转换系数减小,说明榆林市仍处于产业结构从较低水平向高水平演进的工业化过程。③农业产业结构调整方面。1985-1992年农业内部多样化指数因牧业快速发展而呈增长态势,1998-2007年,多样化指数出现下滑。④从农作物种植结构可以看出,粮食作物种植面积虽然呈现下降趋势,但一直占主导地位;1978-1997年经济作物种植面积以9.94%的增速不断扩大。⑤农村收支结构方面。农村收入仍以家庭经营性收入为主,而第一产业收入占家庭经营收入80%以上,可见榆林市农村发展依然主要依靠农业生产。从生活消费各项支出构成来看,食品消费支出一直作为农村生活的主要支出部分(40%以上);文教娱乐、交通通讯与医疗保健的消费支出比重逐渐增长。
(3)农村转型发展的效应解析:①1991-2007年,榆林市产业结构变动对经济增长贡献值平均为4.9580,国内生产总值增长的16.90%是由产业结构变动造成;1985-2007年,能源开发弹性系数平均值达3.30,表明能源资源开发的溢出效应非常显著。②农业优势指数显示:2004年以来,佳县、子洲、清涧属于农业绝对优势类,府谷、靖边为不具优势类。③农村劳动生产效率:1978年以来第一产业产业结构偏离度为正,且有逐年增加态势,第二产业为负向偏离,且程度有增加趋势。比较劳动生产率显示,30年间一、三产业比较劳动生产率均呈现了下降态势,而第二产业比较劳动力居高不下。二元对比系数从1978年的0.1782降低至2007年的0.023,说明城乡二元结构日益扩大。④农村生活水平方面:1990-2007年,榆林市农村居民恩格尔系数由63.07%下降到40.01%,生活状态由贫困水平提升到小康水平。食品消费结构方面,粮食消费逐渐减少,高蛋白类食品呈现稳步增长的局面。
(4)农村转型发展的状态水平显示:①农村经济实力,1992-2007年全市农村经济实力从-3.94增长到5.73,经历了初级发展型-中级发展型-良好发展型-优质发展型;各县农村经济实力均呈现增长趋势,神木最快,靖边次之,分别达0.66、0.65,清涧仅有0.35,增速最慢。②农村生态环境质量,1992-2007年,榆林市农村生态环境质量从3.52下降到-3.27,从潜在脆弱型下降至重度脆弱型。其中,神木、绥德、清涧、子洲呈现逐渐下降态势,神木降幅最大,从2.85下降至-3.50;其它各县均在波动中呈现上升势头。③农村资源承载能力,1992-2007年,榆林市农村资源承载能力从-1.68增长到1.39,由一般状态上升为良好状态。榆阳、横山、绥德、米脂、佳县、吴堡、清涧呈下降趋势,榆阳下降幅度最大,从2.09下降至-1.82;神木增长幅度最大,16年间共增长4.45。④榆林市农村转型发展状态总体上一直稳定在中等持续发展状态。府谷、定边稳定在可持续发展状态,神木、子洲维持在中等持续发展状态,而南部的清涧则一直处于不可持续发展状态。榆阳、绥德农村发展状态出现波动,靖边呈现下滑态势,其它各县基本维持在中等持续发展状态。
(5)结合榆林市农村发展的态势,立足于农村功能特性,以人地和谐、城乡统筹、国家需求安全、科学发展的战略理念为导向;根据各县农村特色优势,构建能源经济带动、生态经济主导、特色经济引领、劳务经济拉动、政策优惠扶持五种模式;提出以城带乡、以工促农、科技兴农、加速农业产业化、协调能源开发与生态建设及农村发展等战略途径;辅以创新政策管理机制、构建多元融资机制、完善社会保障机制、健全农村市场机制、协调生态建设与农村发展机制等保障农村战略顺利实施的政策措施。
本文力求从以下几方面有所创新:
(1)理论方面,通过模拟榆林市农村转型发展的轨迹,探讨农村转型发展的驱动机制,揭示农村发展的时空演变规律及分异,评估农村转型发展状态水平,探索提升能源富集贫困区农村发展的作用机理,提炼出不同类型区农村发展的模式,从理论上研究能源富集贫困区农村发展、资源开发、生态保护协调发展的机制与途径,拓展了乡村地理学理论与方法。
(2)研究方法,构建能源富集贫困区农村转型发展评价模型。针对榆林市受气候暖干化、水资源胁迫、土地退化等影响作用较大,因此,将资源承载能力单独评价。借助SPSS数据处理与ArcGIS空间分析功能,建立能源富集贫困区农村经济实力、生态环境演变响应、资源承载能力评价模型,运用ArcGIS空间叠加功能模拟三者时空演变状态与规律,从而对榆林市农村发展进行动态评价。
(3)通过实证调研,探索能源富集贫困区农村可持续发展的途径。基于人地和谐、城乡统筹、面向国家安全的科学发展理念,对神木、绥德为代表的能源富集地区和农业经济区进行实地调研,借鉴以往研究成果,提炼不同类型区农村发展的主要模式,并提出了能源富集贫困地区农村可持续发展的科学途径。
The countryside is the main body of ecological environment and society in China. Rural development is related to national strategic security, social stability, foodstuff security and ecological safety. As coupling regions with rich natural resources, poor economy and fragile ecology, poor resource-abundant regions are focus areas which are used to study man-land relation and rural development. Large-scale natural resources exploitation impels regional economic swift growth, at the same time, seriously destroys ecological environment, which intensifies the local rural impoverished degree.The paper took Yulin city as research objects, using theoretic analysis and demonstration estimate, applying mathematics model and Delphi, to depict the track of rural transformation development inYulin city. Based on coordinated urban and rural development, human-land harmony and sustainable development perspective, it revealed the evolving rule of industrial structure, employment structure and rural living condition. It explained the main influencing factors of rural development, then designed evaluating model of rural development in rich natural resources region to estimate the state of rural transformation development. At last, dominant models and developing strategies for rural development in resource-abundant region were put forward, which provided academic basis and decision-making foundation for rural development inYulin city.
According to systemic study of rural transformation development inYulin city, the main conclusions are following:
(1) Analyzing the main influencing factors of rural development in Yulin city, the results showed that:①From 1975 to 2005, there is a little decrease tendency for annual precipitation and the tendency ratio is - 23.15mm/ (10a) -1. The air temperature in the spring and winter were tending to rise, the increasing rate are 0.92℃/ (10a) - 1 and 0.67℃/ (10a) - 1. The aridification reduced grain yield and ability of raising livestock, bringing more and more seriously land desertification.②The calculation of water resources intimidation degree showed that, from 2000 to 2006, water resource intimidation already approached to the heavy stress degree, and presents an increasing trend. Among all the factors, water resource intimidation degree of social economy increased furthest, with an increasing rate of 0.0159/a.③Local ecological enviroment was strongly disturbed caused by large-scale natural resources exploitation, which led to the decline of soil fertility and worsening of ecological environment.④Rural poverty became the basic barrier of local social and economic development.⑤The evolvement of rural development policies during different historical stages is the key driving forces of rural transformation development.
(2) The track of rural transformation development inYulin city showed that:①The exploitation of Shenfu coalfield in 1985, the advance of market economy in 1992, bases construction for national energy and chemical industry in 1998 and deepened reform of countryside system in2004 are the transition points of Yulin city' rural development.②The conversion velocity coefficient and directive coefficient of three industrial structures in Yulin city indicated: The conversion velocity of three industries structure present crescent state from 1998 to 2003 .The conversion velocity coefficient reaches maximum 0.2755 during 1998-2003. The directive coefficient of three industrial structures showed: the proportion of second industry increased, while the first and third industry decreased fast, which illuminated Yulin city was at the industrialization process with industrial structure evolving from low level to the middle of high level.③As to the adjustment of agricultural structure, The diversification index within agriculture took on rising trend duringl985-1992,while declining during 1998-2007.④In regard to cultivation structure, though grain crop acreage decreased, it all along occupied the dominant position. Oppositely, economic crop acreage increased at 9.94% rate.⑤As to the agricultural revenue and expenditure structure, family management income is the main income in countryside, while the agricultural income accounted for 80% of family management income. So we see rural development mainly depended on agricultural production. Food consumption expenditure continuously is the major part of rural life expenditures.
(3)The effect of rural transformation development showed that:①The mean value of contribution of industrial structure change to economic growth is 4.958 during 1991-2007, 16.90 percent of GDP growth is caused by industrial structural changes. The mean value of elastic coefficient of energy exploitation reached 3.0 during 1985-2007, which indicated the overflow effect of natural resources exploitation is remarkable.②The agricultural advantage index in each county displayed: Jiaixian, Zizhou, and Qingjian are agricultural overwhelming preponderant area; Hengshan, Suide, Mizhi and Wubao are significant preponderant area; Yuyang, Shenmu and Jingbian are middle edge type.③Rural labor productivity and departure degree of industrial structure showed that: the first industry had positive departure degree with rapid increase trend science 1978, while the second industry had negative departure degree with a bigger range. During the past 30 years, relative labor productivity of first and third industries declined, but that of the second industry kept high. The dual contrast coefficient decreased from 0.1782 to 0.023 from 1978 to 2007, which indicated urban-rural dual structure was enlarging.④As for rural living standards from 1990 to 2007, Engel's coefficient of rural resident descended from 63.07% to 40.01%, the living condition stepped up to comparatively good living standard. Rural consumption structure of food changed: foodstuff consumption gradually decreased while the proportion of high-protein foods steadily increased.
(4) The state of rural transformation development in Yulin city indicated:①The regional rural economy strength rose from -3.94 to 5.73 during 1992-2007, experiencing primary development, intermediate development, good development, and high quality development. The rural economy strength of each county present an increasing trend, Shenmu increased fastest and Qingjian slowest.②From 1992 to 2007, the score of rural ecological environment dropped from3.52 to -3.27, potential fragile type declining in to severe fragile. Among them, Shenmu, Suide, Qingjian, Zizhou took on a gradually declining trend, the other counties fluctuated with an ascending tendency.③From 1992 to 2007, the carrying capacity of rural resources grew from -1.68 to 1.39, the general state of carrying capacity changing to good condition. Yuyang, Hengshan, Suide, Mizhi, Jiaxian, Wubao,Qingjian showed themselves downward trends. Yuyang decreased biggest. During the past 16 year, the carrying capacity of Shenmu increased 4.45.④The results of coupling estimation for rural transformation development indicated: the state of rural transformation development was in a state of moderate sustainable development. Fugu and Dingbian maintained the sustainable development, Shenmu and Zizhou kept middle sustainable development, but Qingjian was in a state of unsustainable development. The rural development of Yuyang and Suide fluctuated regularly.
(5) Combined with the trend of rural development in Yulin city and based on rural functional characteristics, the paper established the strategic guidance that: harmonious urban and rural development, human-land harmony, national security needs and sustainable development perspective. According to the different rural advantages of each county, it built five models for economic development, they were energy economy driving model, ecological-economic oriented model, characteristic economy model, labor economy and support of preferential policies. It put forward strategic ways including: rural areas driven by urban areas, agriculture pressed by industry, science and technology, agriculture accelerated by science and technology, the industrialization of agriculture, the coordination of eco-economic development ,and so on. In addition, several policies and measures were proposed: innovative policy management mechanisms, multi-financing mechanisms, perfect social security mechanism, complete rural market mechanisms, and the coordination of ecological construction and rural development mechanisms.
This article seeks to achieve the following innovations:
(1) Theoretically, through simulating the track of rural transformation development inYulin city, it discussed the drive mechanism of rural development, revealed the rural development rule of spatial and temporal evolution, estimated state and level of rural development, exploring the mechanisms of rural transformation development in rich natural resources region, abstracted different rural development models. Then, the paper researched the mechanisms and measures to harmonize rural development, resources exploitation and ecological protection, expanding the theory and method of rural geography.
(2) As to research methods, the paper constructed evaluating model of rural development in poor resource-abundant region. Aiming at serious influencing factors for local development including: Climate artification, water resources intimidation and land degradation, the carrying capacity of rural resources was separately evaluated. In virtue of SPSS and ArcGIS, the paper set up the evaluation models of rural economy strength, ecological environment, carrying capacity of rural resources, to dynamically evaluate Yulin city's rural development.
(3) By demonstration investigation and study, the paper explored rural sustainable development of poor resource-abundant regions. Based on the strategic guidance including: coordinated urban and rural development, human-land harmony, national security needs and sustainable development perspective, it abstracted five models for economic development: natural resources economy model, ecological-economic oriented type, characteristic economy model, labor economy and leading of preferential policies. Additionally, scientific ways for sustainable development in poor resource-abundant region were put forward.
本文以陕北榆林市为例,采取从面上切入与点上突破相结合、理论解析与实证评价相辅佐,运用数学模型模拟与专家咨询决策的定性与定量相结合的研究方法,从城乡统筹、人地和谐、可持续发展的理论高度出发,刻画榆林市农村转型发展的轨迹,重点揭示研究区产业结构、就业结构、农村生活条件等演变规律,阐明农村发展的主要影响因素,构建能源富集贫困区农村发展状态评估模型,评价农村发展状态演变趋势,提出能源富集贫困区农村转型发展的主导模式与发展战略,为能源富集、农村贫困、生态脆弱的榆林市农村可持续发展提供理论参考与决策依据。
通过对榆林市农村转型发展进行系统研究,得出以下主要结论:
(1)农村发展的主要影响因素分析表明:①1975-2005年榆林市降水以67.78mm/10a的速率减少,春冬两季气温以1.45℃/10a、0.64℃/10a的速率提升。干旱化降低了粮食的产量和草场的载畜能力,使土地退化有进一步加重趋势。②水资源胁迫程度表明,2000-2006年榆林市水资源胁迫度已接近重度胁迫,且以平均0.0009/a的速率增长,社会经济对水资源的胁迫增长最快,达0.0159/a。③大规模能源资源开发造成当地生态环境被强烈的干扰,致使农村土地生产力下降,生态环境被破坏。④农村贫困也在一定程度上制约当地社会经济的持续发展,造成“农村贫穷—人口增长—土地垦殖加大—生态环境恶化—贫困加剧”的恶性循环。⑤农村发展的政策演变成为农村转型发展的主要驱动力。
(2)农村转型发展轨迹显示:①1985年神府煤田开发、1992年市场经济推进、1998年国家能源重化工基地建设、2004年农村制度深化改革成为改革开放以来该地区农村发展的转型点。农村发展大致经历了复苏发展-缓慢发展-波动发展-减速发展-加速发展的过程。②产业结构转换速度与转换方向结果表明,1978-2003年,榆林市三次产业结构转换速度呈现逐渐增加的态势;1998-2003年产业转换速度达到最大值0.2755。产业转换方向系数表明,第二产业比例上升,一、三产业转换系数减小,说明榆林市仍处于产业结构从较低水平向高水平演进的工业化过程。③农业产业结构调整方面。1985-1992年农业内部多样化指数因牧业快速发展而呈增长态势,1998-2007年,多样化指数出现下滑。④从农作物种植结构可以看出,粮食作物种植面积虽然呈现下降趋势,但一直占主导地位;1978-1997年经济作物种植面积以9.94%的增速不断扩大。⑤农村收支结构方面。农村收入仍以家庭经营性收入为主,而第一产业收入占家庭经营收入80%以上,可见榆林市农村发展依然主要依靠农业生产。从生活消费各项支出构成来看,食品消费支出一直作为农村生活的主要支出部分(40%以上);文教娱乐、交通通讯与医疗保健的消费支出比重逐渐增长。
(3)农村转型发展的效应解析:①1991-2007年,榆林市产业结构变动对经济增长贡献值平均为4.9580,国内生产总值增长的16.90%是由产业结构变动造成;1985-2007年,能源开发弹性系数平均值达3.30,表明能源资源开发的溢出效应非常显著。②农业优势指数显示:2004年以来,佳县、子洲、清涧属于农业绝对优势类,府谷、靖边为不具优势类。③农村劳动生产效率:1978年以来第一产业产业结构偏离度为正,且有逐年增加态势,第二产业为负向偏离,且程度有增加趋势。比较劳动生产率显示,30年间一、三产业比较劳动生产率均呈现了下降态势,而第二产业比较劳动力居高不下。二元对比系数从1978年的0.1782降低至2007年的0.023,说明城乡二元结构日益扩大。④农村生活水平方面:1990-2007年,榆林市农村居民恩格尔系数由63.07%下降到40.01%,生活状态由贫困水平提升到小康水平。食品消费结构方面,粮食消费逐渐减少,高蛋白类食品呈现稳步增长的局面。
(4)农村转型发展的状态水平显示:①农村经济实力,1992-2007年全市农村经济实力从-3.94增长到5.73,经历了初级发展型-中级发展型-良好发展型-优质发展型;各县农村经济实力均呈现增长趋势,神木最快,靖边次之,分别达0.66、0.65,清涧仅有0.35,增速最慢。②农村生态环境质量,1992-2007年,榆林市农村生态环境质量从3.52下降到-3.27,从潜在脆弱型下降至重度脆弱型。其中,神木、绥德、清涧、子洲呈现逐渐下降态势,神木降幅最大,从2.85下降至-3.50;其它各县均在波动中呈现上升势头。③农村资源承载能力,1992-2007年,榆林市农村资源承载能力从-1.68增长到1.39,由一般状态上升为良好状态。榆阳、横山、绥德、米脂、佳县、吴堡、清涧呈下降趋势,榆阳下降幅度最大,从2.09下降至-1.82;神木增长幅度最大,16年间共增长4.45。④榆林市农村转型发展状态总体上一直稳定在中等持续发展状态。府谷、定边稳定在可持续发展状态,神木、子洲维持在中等持续发展状态,而南部的清涧则一直处于不可持续发展状态。榆阳、绥德农村发展状态出现波动,靖边呈现下滑态势,其它各县基本维持在中等持续发展状态。
(5)结合榆林市农村发展的态势,立足于农村功能特性,以人地和谐、城乡统筹、国家需求安全、科学发展的战略理念为导向;根据各县农村特色优势,构建能源经济带动、生态经济主导、特色经济引领、劳务经济拉动、政策优惠扶持五种模式;提出以城带乡、以工促农、科技兴农、加速农业产业化、协调能源开发与生态建设及农村发展等战略途径;辅以创新政策管理机制、构建多元融资机制、完善社会保障机制、健全农村市场机制、协调生态建设与农村发展机制等保障农村战略顺利实施的政策措施。
本文力求从以下几方面有所创新:
(1)理论方面,通过模拟榆林市农村转型发展的轨迹,探讨农村转型发展的驱动机制,揭示农村发展的时空演变规律及分异,评估农村转型发展状态水平,探索提升能源富集贫困区农村发展的作用机理,提炼出不同类型区农村发展的模式,从理论上研究能源富集贫困区农村发展、资源开发、生态保护协调发展的机制与途径,拓展了乡村地理学理论与方法。
(2)研究方法,构建能源富集贫困区农村转型发展评价模型。针对榆林市受气候暖干化、水资源胁迫、土地退化等影响作用较大,因此,将资源承载能力单独评价。借助SPSS数据处理与ArcGIS空间分析功能,建立能源富集贫困区农村经济实力、生态环境演变响应、资源承载能力评价模型,运用ArcGIS空间叠加功能模拟三者时空演变状态与规律,从而对榆林市农村发展进行动态评价。
(3)通过实证调研,探索能源富集贫困区农村可持续发展的途径。基于人地和谐、城乡统筹、面向国家安全的科学发展理念,对神木、绥德为代表的能源富集地区和农业经济区进行实地调研,借鉴以往研究成果,提炼不同类型区农村发展的主要模式,并提出了能源富集贫困地区农村可持续发展的科学途径。
The countryside is the main body of ecological environment and society in China. Rural development is related to national strategic security, social stability, foodstuff security and ecological safety. As coupling regions with rich natural resources, poor economy and fragile ecology, poor resource-abundant regions are focus areas which are used to study man-land relation and rural development. Large-scale natural resources exploitation impels regional economic swift growth, at the same time, seriously destroys ecological environment, which intensifies the local rural impoverished degree.The paper took Yulin city as research objects, using theoretic analysis and demonstration estimate, applying mathematics model and Delphi, to depict the track of rural transformation development inYulin city. Based on coordinated urban and rural development, human-land harmony and sustainable development perspective, it revealed the evolving rule of industrial structure, employment structure and rural living condition. It explained the main influencing factors of rural development, then designed evaluating model of rural development in rich natural resources region to estimate the state of rural transformation development. At last, dominant models and developing strategies for rural development in resource-abundant region were put forward, which provided academic basis and decision-making foundation for rural development inYulin city.
According to systemic study of rural transformation development inYulin city, the main conclusions are following:
(1) Analyzing the main influencing factors of rural development in Yulin city, the results showed that:①From 1975 to 2005, there is a little decrease tendency for annual precipitation and the tendency ratio is - 23.15mm/ (10a) -1. The air temperature in the spring and winter were tending to rise, the increasing rate are 0.92℃/ (10a) - 1 and 0.67℃/ (10a) - 1. The aridification reduced grain yield and ability of raising livestock, bringing more and more seriously land desertification.②The calculation of water resources intimidation degree showed that, from 2000 to 2006, water resource intimidation already approached to the heavy stress degree, and presents an increasing trend. Among all the factors, water resource intimidation degree of social economy increased furthest, with an increasing rate of 0.0159/a.③Local ecological enviroment was strongly disturbed caused by large-scale natural resources exploitation, which led to the decline of soil fertility and worsening of ecological environment.④Rural poverty became the basic barrier of local social and economic development.⑤The evolvement of rural development policies during different historical stages is the key driving forces of rural transformation development.
(2) The track of rural transformation development inYulin city showed that:①The exploitation of Shenfu coalfield in 1985, the advance of market economy in 1992, bases construction for national energy and chemical industry in 1998 and deepened reform of countryside system in2004 are the transition points of Yulin city' rural development.②The conversion velocity coefficient and directive coefficient of three industrial structures in Yulin city indicated: The conversion velocity of three industries structure present crescent state from 1998 to 2003 .The conversion velocity coefficient reaches maximum 0.2755 during 1998-2003. The directive coefficient of three industrial structures showed: the proportion of second industry increased, while the first and third industry decreased fast, which illuminated Yulin city was at the industrialization process with industrial structure evolving from low level to the middle of high level.③As to the adjustment of agricultural structure, The diversification index within agriculture took on rising trend duringl985-1992,while declining during 1998-2007.④In regard to cultivation structure, though grain crop acreage decreased, it all along occupied the dominant position. Oppositely, economic crop acreage increased at 9.94% rate.⑤As to the agricultural revenue and expenditure structure, family management income is the main income in countryside, while the agricultural income accounted for 80% of family management income. So we see rural development mainly depended on agricultural production. Food consumption expenditure continuously is the major part of rural life expenditures.
(3)The effect of rural transformation development showed that:①The mean value of contribution of industrial structure change to economic growth is 4.958 during 1991-2007, 16.90 percent of GDP growth is caused by industrial structural changes. The mean value of elastic coefficient of energy exploitation reached 3.0 during 1985-2007, which indicated the overflow effect of natural resources exploitation is remarkable.②The agricultural advantage index in each county displayed: Jiaixian, Zizhou, and Qingjian are agricultural overwhelming preponderant area; Hengshan, Suide, Mizhi and Wubao are significant preponderant area; Yuyang, Shenmu and Jingbian are middle edge type.③Rural labor productivity and departure degree of industrial structure showed that: the first industry had positive departure degree with rapid increase trend science 1978, while the second industry had negative departure degree with a bigger range. During the past 30 years, relative labor productivity of first and third industries declined, but that of the second industry kept high. The dual contrast coefficient decreased from 0.1782 to 0.023 from 1978 to 2007, which indicated urban-rural dual structure was enlarging.④As for rural living standards from 1990 to 2007, Engel's coefficient of rural resident descended from 63.07% to 40.01%, the living condition stepped up to comparatively good living standard. Rural consumption structure of food changed: foodstuff consumption gradually decreased while the proportion of high-protein foods steadily increased.
(4) The state of rural transformation development in Yulin city indicated:①The regional rural economy strength rose from -3.94 to 5.73 during 1992-2007, experiencing primary development, intermediate development, good development, and high quality development. The rural economy strength of each county present an increasing trend, Shenmu increased fastest and Qingjian slowest.②From 1992 to 2007, the score of rural ecological environment dropped from3.52 to -3.27, potential fragile type declining in to severe fragile. Among them, Shenmu, Suide, Qingjian, Zizhou took on a gradually declining trend, the other counties fluctuated with an ascending tendency.③From 1992 to 2007, the carrying capacity of rural resources grew from -1.68 to 1.39, the general state of carrying capacity changing to good condition. Yuyang, Hengshan, Suide, Mizhi, Jiaxian, Wubao,Qingjian showed themselves downward trends. Yuyang decreased biggest. During the past 16 year, the carrying capacity of Shenmu increased 4.45.④The results of coupling estimation for rural transformation development indicated: the state of rural transformation development was in a state of moderate sustainable development. Fugu and Dingbian maintained the sustainable development, Shenmu and Zizhou kept middle sustainable development, but Qingjian was in a state of unsustainable development. The rural development of Yuyang and Suide fluctuated regularly.
(5) Combined with the trend of rural development in Yulin city and based on rural functional characteristics, the paper established the strategic guidance that: harmonious urban and rural development, human-land harmony, national security needs and sustainable development perspective. According to the different rural advantages of each county, it built five models for economic development, they were energy economy driving model, ecological-economic oriented model, characteristic economy model, labor economy and support of preferential policies. It put forward strategic ways including: rural areas driven by urban areas, agriculture pressed by industry, science and technology, agriculture accelerated by science and technology, the industrialization of agriculture, the coordination of eco-economic development ,and so on. In addition, several policies and measures were proposed: innovative policy management mechanisms, multi-financing mechanisms, perfect social security mechanism, complete rural market mechanisms, and the coordination of ecological construction and rural development mechanisms.
This article seeks to achieve the following innovations:
(1) Theoretically, through simulating the track of rural transformation development inYulin city, it discussed the drive mechanism of rural development, revealed the rural development rule of spatial and temporal evolution, estimated state and level of rural development, exploring the mechanisms of rural transformation development in rich natural resources region, abstracted different rural development models. Then, the paper researched the mechanisms and measures to harmonize rural development, resources exploitation and ecological protection, expanding the theory and method of rural geography.
(2) As to research methods, the paper constructed evaluating model of rural development in poor resource-abundant region. Aiming at serious influencing factors for local development including: Climate artification, water resources intimidation and land degradation, the carrying capacity of rural resources was separately evaluated. In virtue of SPSS and ArcGIS, the paper set up the evaluation models of rural economy strength, ecological environment, carrying capacity of rural resources, to dynamically evaluate Yulin city's rural development.
(3) By demonstration investigation and study, the paper explored rural sustainable development of poor resource-abundant regions. Based on the strategic guidance including: coordinated urban and rural development, human-land harmony, national security needs and sustainable development perspective, it abstracted five models for economic development: natural resources economy model, ecological-economic oriented type, characteristic economy model, labor economy and leading of preferential policies. Additionally, scientific ways for sustainable development in poor resource-abundant region were put forward.
引文
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