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我国涉农信贷与保险耦合模式研究
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摘要
本文运用演化博弈理论对涉农信贷与保险耦合模式下政府、农户、农村信贷机构、保险公司四大利益群体及各群体之间的行为演化进行分析,得到了维持涉农信贷与保险耦合模式持续发展的方法途径。地方政府对参保借款农户实施较高比例的保费补贴,使得保费补贴额度满足相应的参数条件,是借款农户群体以积极参保为平稳策略的现实条件;地方政府对涉农保险机构进行业务补贴,为农业保险业务购买再保险,是保险机构群体形成以积极参与信贷业务合作为稳定策略的现实条件,并且止损再保险比比例再保险更能刺激保险机构合作的积极性;在政府有限补贴的条件下,农村信贷机构降低代理保险产品的成本以及保险公司控制涉农险种开发成本,也是维持涉农信贷与保险耦合模式可持续性的重要途径。
     基于对涉农信贷与保险耦合模式各利益主体行为的演化结果,对现有的涉农信贷与保险耦合产品体系进行完善,提出了“涉农信贷+农业保险+再保险”、“综合保险+涉农贷款”等耦合产品的运作模式。由于借款农户的参保信息纳入其信用状况评价体系是涉农信贷与保险耦合模式下科学核定贷款利率和授信额度的前提,本文基于WU’s三维信用理论建立参保农户的信用综合评价方法。同时,在该借款农户信用评价方法的基础上,结合巴塞尔新资本协议内部评级法,提出了对“涉农信贷+保险”的一般定价方法。
     对借款农户的家庭特征、诱致性需求、自然禀赋、兼业化程度及贷款规模五个方面影响借款农户保险偏好的13因素与借款农户的保险选择之间的关系进行实证分析,得到了对借款农户保险选择存在显著影响的因素。结合实证结果,提出了从加大宣传力度、提供保险服务效率、提高农户收入水平等方面提升借款农户参保的积极性,确保涉农信贷与保险耦合产品的需求动力。
     分析了现有涉农信贷与保险耦合产品的发展现状和存在问题,对农村信贷机构与保险机构围绕信贷产品和保险产品耦合,提出了规范双方行为的原则和要求,确保涉农信贷机构、保险机构、借款农户在涉农信贷与保险耦合模式运行过程中的合法权益。分析了涉农信贷与保险耦合模式中信贷与保险发展不对称问题,构建了农业巨灾风险分散和控制机制以及保险资金长效补偿机制。分析了涉农信贷与保险耦合模式发展的环境,对其发展的信用环境、监管环境以及法律环境进行了完善。
This paper use evolutionary game theory to analyze the behavior evolutions in and between the interest groups of government, farmers, rural credit agency and insurance company in the agricultural credit and insurance coupling mechanism. It finds the methods to maintain the agricultural credit and insurance coupling mechanism's continuous operation. The local government provides higher percentages of premium subsidies to farmers insured. This makes the premium subsidies amount meet the corresponding parameter conditions and borrowing farmers groups' stationary policy be active insured. The local government's providing business subsides to agricultural insurance institutions and reinsurance for agricultural insurance business, is the practical requirement for insurance institution groups to make their stationary policy as active participation in the cooperation with credit business. And it's the stop-loss reinsurance rather than proportion reinsurance that will stimulate the insurance institutions'initiative to cooperate. With limited government subsides, rural credit agency reduces the agency cost of the participated insurance products while the insurance company may control developing costs of agriculture-related insurance. This is also a ignificant approach to maintain the agricultural credit and insurance coupling mechanism's continuous operation. Based on the behavior evolution consequences of the agricultural credit and insurance coupling mechanism stakeholders, the dissertation will consummate the existing agricultural credit and insurance coupling product system, put forward some coupling product operating mode such as "agriculture-related credit+agricultural insurance+reinsurance",
     "comprehensive insurance+agricultural loans", etc. Since bringing borrowing farmers' insurance information into credit evaluation system is the prediction to set loan rate and the line of credit for the agricultural credit and insurance coupling mechanism, we employ the WU's3d credit theory to establish the insured farmers' comprehensive credit evaluation method. Simultaneously, we come up with the general pricing for "agriculture-related credit+insurance" combined Basel ⅡIRB, based on the evaluation method mentioned above.
     We carry out empirical analysis to the relationship between borrowing farmers'insurance choice and twelve influence factors to their insurance preference in four aspects:household characteristics, induced demand, natural endowment and currently industry degree. Then, we find out the factors which have significant impact on farmers'insurance options. With the empirical results, we suggest to improve borrowing farmers'enthusiasm of the insured by intensifying propaganda, improving the insurance service efficiency, raising their income level etc. so as to ensure the demand drivers of the agricultural credit and insurance coupling products.
     Next, the paper analyzes the development status and existing problems of agricultural credit and insurance coupling products, and comes up with cooperation principles to regulate the behavior between rural credit agencies and insurance institutions, ensuring the lawful rights and interests of agriculture credit agencies, insurance institutions and borrowing farmers during the operation of the coupling mechanism. Then, we analyze the asymmetry of the development of credit and insurance in the coupling mechanism, and build the risk diversification and control mechanisms for agricultural catastrophe, and long-term compensation mechanism for insurance funds. In the end, the paper analyzes the development environment of the agricultural credit and insurance coupling mechanism, and perfects its credit environment, regulatory environment and legal environment.
引文
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