供应中断情况下单源与多源采购比较及订单分配研究
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摘要
随着全球供应链管理朝精益化和全球化发展,供应链在时间和空间上得到了延伸,但其复杂度和脆弱性也日益加剧,供应链中断风险也随之加剧。目前供应链中断风险管理已经成为一个研究热点,但还是处于刚起步的阶段。定性方面对供应链风险的识别及评估已经有了比较丰富的成果,定量方面更多的是基于供应链协调和应急管理理论建立针对供应突发事件的量化模型研究协调和应急对策问题,但基于供应中断风险的采购策略研究还很欠缺。
本文首先基于供应中断风险研究了企业的采购策略选择问题。单源采购和多源采购各有优劣势,因此从风险管理角度进行正确有效的评估是有必要的。本文建立了供应商-采购方两级供应链的采购决策模型,考虑多供应商共同中断和独立中断因素,以及当发生供应中断后其他供应商可补充供应的可能性,提出了实物期权理论对多源采购相较于单源采购的期望收益进行估值,选取企业实例进行蒙特卡罗模拟得出其期望收益的统计分布特征,并对一些重要参数进行敏感性分析。结果显示,模型能有效支持企业经理人面临多个不确定因素时的采购决策。
其次,本文研究了多源采购策略下的最优订货批量和订货分配。本文考虑需求是随机的,建立双供应商-单制造商模型,并将双供应商分为供应商同质和不同质两种情况,分别求得最优解,并且以需求服从平均分布为例,进行算例分析,验证了模型。通过比较同质和不同质供应商两种情况下的期望收益,说明多源采购策略下选择不同质供应商对企业较为有利。
As the global supply chain management trends to lean production and globalization, the supply chain has been extended in both time and space, but meantime its complexity and fragility is raised and the probability of supply chain disruption is also increased. Currently,study on supply chain risk management has become a hotspot, but it is still in a fledgling stage. Qualitative research of identification and assessment of supply chain risk has been fruitful and most quantitative research has done based on supply chain coordination and emergency management theory, but the research of procurement strategy research based on supply disruption risk is still lacking.
Firstly, this paper studies on choosing single souring or multiple sourcing strategy based on supply disruption risk. Since single souring and multiple sourcing strategies each offer certain advantages in risky environments, a correct evaluation from a risk management perspective is needed. This paper proposes the Real Options approach for valuing the probabilistic benefits of multiple sourcing under the supply disruption risk compared with single sourcing. A computational model was developed based on the Monte Carlo simulation. The result shows the (probabilistic) advantages of adopting the multiple sourcing strategies under supply disruption. And then the paper indicates some sensitive analysis about some parameters. Its managerial implications represent a valid support for the decision-making process in the presence of uncertainty.
Secondly, this paper studies on the optimal order quantity and order allocation under multiple-sourcing strategy. The research is positive since the suppliers may have lower cost or higher stability. This paper proposes the optimal order quality and order distribution under multiple souring strategies, from the perspective of maximization of revenues, based on the risk of supply disruption. We demonstrate the optimal order quantity and allocation though numerical examples, when the demand is evenly distributed. The results indicate that it is more profitable to select heterogeneous suppliers than homogeneous suppliers under multiple–sourcing strategy.
本文首先基于供应中断风险研究了企业的采购策略选择问题。单源采购和多源采购各有优劣势,因此从风险管理角度进行正确有效的评估是有必要的。本文建立了供应商-采购方两级供应链的采购决策模型,考虑多供应商共同中断和独立中断因素,以及当发生供应中断后其他供应商可补充供应的可能性,提出了实物期权理论对多源采购相较于单源采购的期望收益进行估值,选取企业实例进行蒙特卡罗模拟得出其期望收益的统计分布特征,并对一些重要参数进行敏感性分析。结果显示,模型能有效支持企业经理人面临多个不确定因素时的采购决策。
其次,本文研究了多源采购策略下的最优订货批量和订货分配。本文考虑需求是随机的,建立双供应商-单制造商模型,并将双供应商分为供应商同质和不同质两种情况,分别求得最优解,并且以需求服从平均分布为例,进行算例分析,验证了模型。通过比较同质和不同质供应商两种情况下的期望收益,说明多源采购策略下选择不同质供应商对企业较为有利。
As the global supply chain management trends to lean production and globalization, the supply chain has been extended in both time and space, but meantime its complexity and fragility is raised and the probability of supply chain disruption is also increased. Currently,study on supply chain risk management has become a hotspot, but it is still in a fledgling stage. Qualitative research of identification and assessment of supply chain risk has been fruitful and most quantitative research has done based on supply chain coordination and emergency management theory, but the research of procurement strategy research based on supply disruption risk is still lacking.
Firstly, this paper studies on choosing single souring or multiple sourcing strategy based on supply disruption risk. Since single souring and multiple sourcing strategies each offer certain advantages in risky environments, a correct evaluation from a risk management perspective is needed. This paper proposes the Real Options approach for valuing the probabilistic benefits of multiple sourcing under the supply disruption risk compared with single sourcing. A computational model was developed based on the Monte Carlo simulation. The result shows the (probabilistic) advantages of adopting the multiple sourcing strategies under supply disruption. And then the paper indicates some sensitive analysis about some parameters. Its managerial implications represent a valid support for the decision-making process in the presence of uncertainty.
Secondly, this paper studies on the optimal order quantity and order allocation under multiple-sourcing strategy. The research is positive since the suppliers may have lower cost or higher stability. This paper proposes the optimal order quality and order distribution under multiple souring strategies, from the perspective of maximization of revenues, based on the risk of supply disruption. We demonstrate the optimal order quantity and allocation though numerical examples, when the demand is evenly distributed. The results indicate that it is more profitable to select heterogeneous suppliers than homogeneous suppliers under multiple–sourcing strategy.
引文
[1] Roshan Gaonkar, N. Viswanadham. A conceptual and analytical framework for the management of risk in supply chains[C]//Proceedings of the 2004 IEEE International Conference on Roboties & Automation, New Orleans: LA. April 2004: 2699-2701.
[2] Kleindorfer P R, Saad G H . Managing Disruption Risks in Supply Chains[J].Production and Operations Management Society, 2005, 14(1): 53-68.
[3] Tang,C.S.. Perspectives in supply chain risk management[J].Int.J.Production Economics, 2006,103: 451-488.
[4] Kleindorfer P R. Saad G H, Managing disruption risks in supply chains [J]. Production and Operations Management Society, 2005, 14(1):53-68.
[5]张以彬,陈俊芳。供应链的风险识别框架及其柔性控制策略,供应工程与管理, 2008(1):47-52.
[6] Bier, V. M., Y. Y. Haimes, J. H. Lambert, N. C. Matalas, and R. Zimmerman, A Survey of Approaches for Assessing and Managing the Risk of Extremes. Risk Analysis, 1999, 19(1): 83-94.
[7] Knemeyer, A., Zinn, W., & Eroglu, C. Proactive planning for catastrophic events in supply chains, Journal of Operations Management, 2009. 27 (2): 141-153.
[8] Wu T, Blackhurst J., O'Grady P. Methodology for supply chain disruption analysis. International journal of production research. 2007. 7(45): 1665-1682.
[9] SNYDER L V.SCAPARRA M P,DASKIN M S.Planning for distributions in supply chain networks [J]. Operations Research.2006:234-257.
[10]易海燕.供应链风险的管理与控制研究[学位论文].成都:西南交通大学,2007.
[11]刘希龙,季建华.基于多源供应的弹性供应网络研究[J].工业工程与管理,2007,3:8-12.
[12] Yu H S,Zeng A Z,Zhao L D.Single or dual sourcing: Decision-making in the presence of supply chain disruption risks [J]. The International Journal of Management Science, 2009, 37: 788-800.
[13] Ruiz-Torres A J;Mahmoodi F. The Optimal number of suppliers considering the costs of individual supplier failures [J]. The International Journal of Management Science, 2007, 35:104-115.
[14] Sarkar, Ashutosh Mohapatra, Pratap K.J..Determining the optimal size of supply base with the consideration of risks of supply disruptions [J]. Production Economics, 2009.119(1):122-135.
[15]刘希龙,季建华.基于应急供应的弹性供应网络设计研究[J].控制与决策.2007,22(11):1223-227.
[16] TOMLIN B.On the value of mitigation and contingency strategies for managing supply chain disruption risks [J]. Management Science, 2006, 52(5):639-657.
[17] QI X,BARD J, Yu G.Supply chain coordination with demand disruptions [J].Omega,2004,32:30l-312.
[18] XIAO T J, Yu G,SHENG Z H,XIA Y S. Coordination of a supply chain with one manufacturer and two-retailers under demand promotion and disruption management decisions [J]. Annals of Operations Research,2005,135:87-109.
[19] XIAO T J,QI X T. Price competition, cost and demand disruptions and coordination of a supply chain with one manufacturer and two competing retailers [J]. Omega, 2008, 36(5):741-753.
[20] XIAO T J,QI X T, YU G. Coordination of supply chain after demand disruptions when retailers compete [J]. Omega, 2007,109: 162-179.
[21] CHEN KB,XIAO T J. Demand disruption and coordination of the supply chain with a dominant retailer [J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 2009.197:225-234.
[22] XU M,QI X,YU G,ZHANG H,GAO C.The demand disruption management problem for a supply chain system with nonlinear demand function [J]. Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering, 2003,12:82-97.
[23] HUANG C,YU G,WANG S,WANG X J. Distribution management for supply chain coordination with exponential demand function [J]. Acta Mathematica Scientia,2006,26B(4):655-669.
[24]盛方正,季建华.基于援助合同的供应链应急管理[J].西南交通大学学报,2007,42(6):775-780.
[25]盛方正,季建华.基于风险规避的供应链突发事件管理[J].工业工程与管理,2008,03:7-11.
[26] Snyder LV,Shen Z-J Max. Managing Disruption to Supply Chains. Forthcoming in The Bridge (National Academy of Engineering), 2006.
[27] Tomlin B.t and Snyder LV,. On the Value of a Threat Advisory System for Managing Supply Chain Disruptions,Working Paper, Kenan-Flagler Business School, University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill, USA. [28 Alex J.Ruiz-Torres,Farzad Mahmoodi.The optimal number of suppliers considering the costs of individual supplier failures, Omega, 2007,35: 104-115.
[29] Bundschuh M.,Klabjan D.and Thurston D.L(2003),Modeling robust and reliable supply chains.Working paper, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.
[30]于辉,陈剑.突发事件下何时启动应急预案.系统工程理论与实践,2007(8):27-32.
[31] Xiao t Oi X.Price competition,cost and demand disruptions and coordination of a supply chain with one manufacturer and two competing retailers.Omega,2004,32(4):301-312.
[32]于辉,陈剑,于刚.协调供应链如何应对突发事件.系统工程理论与实践,2005,25(7):9-16.
[33]于辉,陈剑,于刚.回购契约下供应链对突发事件的协调应对[J].系统工程理论与实践,2005,25(8):38-43.
[34] Xu M.H’Qi X.T.,Zhang H.and Gao C.The demand disruption management problem for a supply chain system with nonlinear demand functions.Journal of systems science and systems engineering, 2003, 12(1):82-97.
[35]于辉,陈剑.需求依赖于价格的供应链应对突发事件.系统工程理论与实践,2007,3:36-41.
[36]孙亮,马永红.收益共享契约下供应链应对突发事件的协调研究.北京化工大学学报(自然科学版),2008,35(3):97-99.
[37]于辉,陈剑,于刚.批发价契约下的供应链应对突发事件[J].系统工程理论与实践,2006,26(8):33-41.
[38] Qi X L Bard J , Yu G Supply chain coordination with demand disruptions.Omega.2004.32(4):301-312.
[39] Xu M.H,Oi Xt,Zhang H.and Gao C., The Demand Disruption Management Problem for a Supply Chain System with Nonlinear Demand Functions.Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering, 2003, 12(1):82-97.
[40] Xiao L Yu G , Shengand Xia k . Coordination of a Supply Chain with One-Manufacturer and Two-Retailers under Demand Promotion and Disruption Management Decisions.Annals of Operations Research.2005, 135:87-109.
[41]于辉,陈剑,于刚.批发价契约下的供应链应对突发事件[J].系统工程理论与实践,2006,26(8):33-41.
[42] Xia Y.S.,Yang M.H.,Golany B.,Gilbert S.M.,and Yu G. Real-time disruption management in a two-stage production and inventory system, IIE Transactions, 2004, 36:111-125.
[43] Mohebbi,E. A production inventory model with randomly changing environmental conditions,European Journal of Operational Research, 2006. 174:539-552
[44] Robert E. Spekman, Strategic supplier selection: understanding long-term buyer relationships. Business Horizons, 1988, 31(4): 75–81.
[45] Agrawal, N., Nahmias, S., Rationalization of the supplier base in the presence of yield uncertainty. Production and Operations Management, 1997,6 (3): 291–308.
[46] Burke, G.J., Carrillo, J.E., Vakharia, A.J., Single versus multiple supplier sourcing strategies. European Journal of Operational Research, 2007, 182(1): 95–112.
[47] Brian Tomlin, Selecting a Disruption-management Strategy for Short Life-Cycle Products:Diversification,Contingent Sourcing,and Demand Management[R],working paper,Kenan-Flagler Business School,University of North Carolina,2005.
[48] Pochard, Sophie., Managing Risks of Supply-Chain Disruptions: Dual Sourcing as a Real Option[Dissertation]. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. 2003.
[49] Yu, H., Zeng, A.Z., Zhao, L., Single or dual sourcing: decision-making in the presence of supply chain disruption risks. Omega, 2009, 37 (4), 788–800.
[50] Berger, P.D., Zeng, A.Z., Single versus multiple sourcing in the presence of risks. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 2005, 7 (3), 250–261.
[51] Ghodsypour S H, O’Brien C. The Total Cost of Logistics in Supplier Selection, Under Conditions of Multiple Sourcing, Multiple Criteria and Capacity Constraint [J]. International Journal of Production Economics, 2001, 73: 15~27.
[52] Kim B, Leung J M Y, Park K T, et al. Configuring a Manufacturing Firm s Supply NetWork With Multiple Suppliers [J]. IIE Transactions, 2002, 34 ( 8) : 663~677.
[53]程海芳,张子刚.多供应商条件下制造商最优订货批量分配模型.管理学报,2005,2(1):156-158.
[2] Kleindorfer P R, Saad G H . Managing Disruption Risks in Supply Chains[J].Production and Operations Management Society, 2005, 14(1): 53-68.
[3] Tang,C.S.. Perspectives in supply chain risk management[J].Int.J.Production Economics, 2006,103: 451-488.
[4] Kleindorfer P R. Saad G H, Managing disruption risks in supply chains [J]. Production and Operations Management Society, 2005, 14(1):53-68.
[5]张以彬,陈俊芳。供应链的风险识别框架及其柔性控制策略,供应工程与管理, 2008(1):47-52.
[6] Bier, V. M., Y. Y. Haimes, J. H. Lambert, N. C. Matalas, and R. Zimmerman, A Survey of Approaches for Assessing and Managing the Risk of Extremes. Risk Analysis, 1999, 19(1): 83-94.
[7] Knemeyer, A., Zinn, W., & Eroglu, C. Proactive planning for catastrophic events in supply chains, Journal of Operations Management, 2009. 27 (2): 141-153.
[8] Wu T, Blackhurst J., O'Grady P. Methodology for supply chain disruption analysis. International journal of production research. 2007. 7(45): 1665-1682.
[9] SNYDER L V.SCAPARRA M P,DASKIN M S.Planning for distributions in supply chain networks [J]. Operations Research.2006:234-257.
[10]易海燕.供应链风险的管理与控制研究[学位论文].成都:西南交通大学,2007.
[11]刘希龙,季建华.基于多源供应的弹性供应网络研究[J].工业工程与管理,2007,3:8-12.
[12] Yu H S,Zeng A Z,Zhao L D.Single or dual sourcing: Decision-making in the presence of supply chain disruption risks [J]. The International Journal of Management Science, 2009, 37: 788-800.
[13] Ruiz-Torres A J;Mahmoodi F. The Optimal number of suppliers considering the costs of individual supplier failures [J]. The International Journal of Management Science, 2007, 35:104-115.
[14] Sarkar, Ashutosh Mohapatra, Pratap K.J..Determining the optimal size of supply base with the consideration of risks of supply disruptions [J]. Production Economics, 2009.119(1):122-135.
[15]刘希龙,季建华.基于应急供应的弹性供应网络设计研究[J].控制与决策.2007,22(11):1223-227.
[16] TOMLIN B.On the value of mitigation and contingency strategies for managing supply chain disruption risks [J]. Management Science, 2006, 52(5):639-657.
[17] QI X,BARD J, Yu G.Supply chain coordination with demand disruptions [J].Omega,2004,32:30l-312.
[18] XIAO T J, Yu G,SHENG Z H,XIA Y S. Coordination of a supply chain with one manufacturer and two-retailers under demand promotion and disruption management decisions [J]. Annals of Operations Research,2005,135:87-109.
[19] XIAO T J,QI X T. Price competition, cost and demand disruptions and coordination of a supply chain with one manufacturer and two competing retailers [J]. Omega, 2008, 36(5):741-753.
[20] XIAO T J,QI X T, YU G. Coordination of supply chain after demand disruptions when retailers compete [J]. Omega, 2007,109: 162-179.
[21] CHEN KB,XIAO T J. Demand disruption and coordination of the supply chain with a dominant retailer [J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 2009.197:225-234.
[22] XU M,QI X,YU G,ZHANG H,GAO C.The demand disruption management problem for a supply chain system with nonlinear demand function [J]. Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering, 2003,12:82-97.
[23] HUANG C,YU G,WANG S,WANG X J. Distribution management for supply chain coordination with exponential demand function [J]. Acta Mathematica Scientia,2006,26B(4):655-669.
[24]盛方正,季建华.基于援助合同的供应链应急管理[J].西南交通大学学报,2007,42(6):775-780.
[25]盛方正,季建华.基于风险规避的供应链突发事件管理[J].工业工程与管理,2008,03:7-11.
[26] Snyder LV,Shen Z-J Max. Managing Disruption to Supply Chains. Forthcoming in The Bridge (National Academy of Engineering), 2006.
[27] Tomlin B.t and Snyder LV,. On the Value of a Threat Advisory System for Managing Supply Chain Disruptions,Working Paper, Kenan-Flagler Business School, University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill, USA. [28 Alex J.Ruiz-Torres,Farzad Mahmoodi.The optimal number of suppliers considering the costs of individual supplier failures, Omega, 2007,35: 104-115.
[29] Bundschuh M.,Klabjan D.and Thurston D.L(2003),Modeling robust and reliable supply chains.Working paper, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.
[30]于辉,陈剑.突发事件下何时启动应急预案.系统工程理论与实践,2007(8):27-32.
[31] Xiao t Oi X.Price competition,cost and demand disruptions and coordination of a supply chain with one manufacturer and two competing retailers.Omega,2004,32(4):301-312.
[32]于辉,陈剑,于刚.协调供应链如何应对突发事件.系统工程理论与实践,2005,25(7):9-16.
[33]于辉,陈剑,于刚.回购契约下供应链对突发事件的协调应对[J].系统工程理论与实践,2005,25(8):38-43.
[34] Xu M.H’Qi X.T.,Zhang H.and Gao C.The demand disruption management problem for a supply chain system with nonlinear demand functions.Journal of systems science and systems engineering, 2003, 12(1):82-97.
[35]于辉,陈剑.需求依赖于价格的供应链应对突发事件.系统工程理论与实践,2007,3:36-41.
[36]孙亮,马永红.收益共享契约下供应链应对突发事件的协调研究.北京化工大学学报(自然科学版),2008,35(3):97-99.
[37]于辉,陈剑,于刚.批发价契约下的供应链应对突发事件[J].系统工程理论与实践,2006,26(8):33-41.
[38] Qi X L Bard J , Yu G Supply chain coordination with demand disruptions.Omega.2004.32(4):301-312.
[39] Xu M.H,Oi Xt,Zhang H.and Gao C., The Demand Disruption Management Problem for a Supply Chain System with Nonlinear Demand Functions.Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering, 2003, 12(1):82-97.
[40] Xiao L Yu G , Shengand Xia k . Coordination of a Supply Chain with One-Manufacturer and Two-Retailers under Demand Promotion and Disruption Management Decisions.Annals of Operations Research.2005, 135:87-109.
[41]于辉,陈剑,于刚.批发价契约下的供应链应对突发事件[J].系统工程理论与实践,2006,26(8):33-41.
[42] Xia Y.S.,Yang M.H.,Golany B.,Gilbert S.M.,and Yu G. Real-time disruption management in a two-stage production and inventory system, IIE Transactions, 2004, 36:111-125.
[43] Mohebbi,E. A production inventory model with randomly changing environmental conditions,European Journal of Operational Research, 2006. 174:539-552
[44] Robert E. Spekman, Strategic supplier selection: understanding long-term buyer relationships. Business Horizons, 1988, 31(4): 75–81.
[45] Agrawal, N., Nahmias, S., Rationalization of the supplier base in the presence of yield uncertainty. Production and Operations Management, 1997,6 (3): 291–308.
[46] Burke, G.J., Carrillo, J.E., Vakharia, A.J., Single versus multiple supplier sourcing strategies. European Journal of Operational Research, 2007, 182(1): 95–112.
[47] Brian Tomlin, Selecting a Disruption-management Strategy for Short Life-Cycle Products:Diversification,Contingent Sourcing,and Demand Management[R],working paper,Kenan-Flagler Business School,University of North Carolina,2005.
[48] Pochard, Sophie., Managing Risks of Supply-Chain Disruptions: Dual Sourcing as a Real Option[Dissertation]. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. 2003.
[49] Yu, H., Zeng, A.Z., Zhao, L., Single or dual sourcing: decision-making in the presence of supply chain disruption risks. Omega, 2009, 37 (4), 788–800.
[50] Berger, P.D., Zeng, A.Z., Single versus multiple sourcing in the presence of risks. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 2005, 7 (3), 250–261.
[51] Ghodsypour S H, O’Brien C. The Total Cost of Logistics in Supplier Selection, Under Conditions of Multiple Sourcing, Multiple Criteria and Capacity Constraint [J]. International Journal of Production Economics, 2001, 73: 15~27.
[52] Kim B, Leung J M Y, Park K T, et al. Configuring a Manufacturing Firm s Supply NetWork With Multiple Suppliers [J]. IIE Transactions, 2002, 34 ( 8) : 663~677.
[53]程海芳,张子刚.多供应商条件下制造商最优订货批量分配模型.管理学报,2005,2(1):156-158.