东海渔业生态系统及其保护区情景模拟分析
摘要
渔业对保障人类粮食安全具有重要作用,已为世界提供了15%以上的动物蛋白。我国东海渔业资源丰富,是沿近海重要的渔区。2000年东海海洋捕捞产量达到625.4×10~4t,占全国海洋捕捞产量的42.33%。但由于长年的捕捞,东海区渔业资源已发生了显著的变化:渔获物营养级下降,幼鱼、低值小杂鱼和低营养级品种增加,渔获结构呈小型化、性早熟、年龄结构简单的趋势。此外,自上世纪90年代中后期起东黄海水域每年7-9月大型水母频繁爆发,导致主要渔业资源密度下降,影响了正常的渔业生产。为应对我国海洋渔业面临的这些严峻挑战,从中央到地方各级政府已经实施了一系列海洋渔业管理政策,包括建立渔业保护区。研究表明,建模方法能够提高对基于生态系统方法论的渔业管理的整体认知。
本文紧密结合渔业生态系统建模分析方法的国际前沿和我国的海洋渔业管理中的关键问题和迫切需求进行了系统研究,分析了东海渔业生态系统营养结构特征和现状,揭示了东海渔业生态系统现有渔业保护区的生态和经济效益,并在此基础上提出了一些渔业管理政策建议。本文的突出成果和结论主要体现在以下几个方面。
1.分析了东海渔业生态系统现状,揭示了大型水母爆发引发的生态系统中上层能量反馈和抑制的循环机制
通过构建包括初级生产者和碎屑在内的45个生态功能组和6种捕捞作业方式的东海生态系统ECOPATH模型,并将大型水母作为一个独立的功能组,分析东海渔业生态系统现状,并从生态系统能量平衡的角度探讨近年来东海大型水母爆发对生态系统的影响。东海生态系统平均营养级为2.87,渔获物平均营养级为2.71,拖网和帆式张网渔业活动强度增大是导致带鱼成幼鱼生物量减少或资源衰退的主要原因之一;能量流动主要发生在食物网底层部分,系统营养转换效率为14.6%;初级生产量与总呼吸量之比(P_P/R)为3.4。目前东海渔业生态系统仍处于不稳定和未成熟的“发育”阶段。
针对大型水母爆发问题,提出了:1)大型水母对中上层生物资源普遍具有显著不利影响;2)在大型水母、浮游动物和鲳鱼等小型中上层鱼类之间可能存在一个由大型水母爆发引发的生态系统中上层能量反馈循环;3)大型水母爆发初期将破坏生态系统中上层能量平衡;4)浮游动物生物量的波动可能是抑制大型水母爆发加剧的自然控制机制之一。
2.首次进行了生态系统空间模型(Ecospace)有效性验证研究
以北海生态系统及其Ecospace模型为研究对象,进行了Ecospace模型空间有效性验证研究。结果表明:在起始阶段,模型对不同功能组的有效性不同;模型对空间生物量预测比实际观测值平滑,表现为对低密度区域生物量的高估以及对高密度区域生物量的低估;模型对空间生物量具有小幅度高估现象;模型对预测空间生物量峰值的作用有限;如果模型在起始阶段对某一功能组空间生物量的预测比较准确,那么进行动态模拟后模型的预测也会比较可靠。
3.揭示了东海渔业生态系统现有渔业保护区经济和生态效益之间的权衡关系
通过东海空间生态系统Ecospace模型的构建和对东海渔业生态系统现有渔业保护区进行了四种情景模拟分析,认为东海渔业保护区总体上对渔业产业有利,但在渔业产业内部各部门之间存在成本收益的权衡或博弈。而且,在将平均寿命和生物多样性BDI作为衡量生态系统保护效益的参数时,禁渔线和伏季休渔等大尺度渔业保护区的设立能够实现渔业生产和生态系统保护的双赢。但这种双赢有待进一步研究和验证。
4.提出了对东海渔业管理的建议
(1)鉴于禁渔线的设立和伏季休渔制度的实施,可以实现渔业生产和生态系统保护的双赢,因此建议加强对禁渔线以西海域禁渔实施情况的监管,充分发挥禁渔线对东海渔业资源的养护作用,并继续实施伏季休渔制度。
(2)鉴于虾拖网渔业从伏季休渔中获益显著,而拖网、帆式张网和围网渔业的收益相对较小,建议适当缩短拖网、帆式张网和灯光围网的休渔期或适度减小休渔范围。
Fishery is an important insurance for the global food safety and has provided 15%animal protein for the whole world consumption.The wide continental shelf waters of the East China Sea(ECS)provide high abundance of fishery resource in China.Marine fishing production of the ECS reached 625.4×10~4t and 42.33%of the total marine fishing production of China Mainland.However,heavy fishing pressure has resulted in a significant change in fishery resources in the past few decades.The mean trophic level of the catch has decreased from 3.5 in 1965 to 2.8 in 1990 and the catches have become to be smaller,younger and premature individuals for some species.On the other hand,a large increase in jellyfish blooms in the ECS has occurred over the last 10 years.In response to this the Chinese government has introduced a range of fishery management measures including the introduction of fishery protected areas since 1970s.Previous studies indicated the modelling approach is a useful contribution to the overall knowledge needed to allow policy decisions to be explored in an ecosystem scale context.
The purposes of this study are using the ecosystem modelling approach to analyze the status of ECS fishery ecosystem,and to examine the likely nature of trade-offs between fishery and conservation goals resulting from the marine protected areas(MPAs).Main results and conclusions are detailed as follows.
1 Analysis on the ECS fishery ecosystem status and jellyfish bloom
Mean trophic level of the fishery catch was 2.71 while the mean trophic level for all groups was 2.87 in the ECS ecosystem.Network analysis results show the increase in fishing effort by trawl and stow net may aggravate the declining of hairtail stock in the ECS.Trophic interactions are 'web-like' where most flows occur in the lower part of the trophic web.Total throughput was 5 035.6 t km~(-2)year~(-1)and the geometric mean transfer efficiency was 14.6%.The ratio between total primary production and total system respiration P_p/R=3.4 estimated by the model indicates an immature and developing system.
Analysis of the trophic interactions has identified a possible pelagic feedback loop allowing large jellyfish blooms to develop as a result of mutual competition and predation between large jellyfish,zooplankton and small pelagic fishes.The pelagic pathway of the ecosystem will be disrupted at the initial stage of a large jellyfish bloom.And fluctuation of zooplankton biomass might be one of the natural control mechanisms of large bloom.
2 Spatial validation on the Ecospace model
Spatial validation work has been done using the North Sea Ecospace model. The results indicate:the validations of the model are different to different groups at the model start stage;the model prediction of the spatial biomass are more flat and smooth than the observation as model over-estimate the biomass in low abundance areas and under-estimate the biomass in high abundance areas;the degree of over-estimation on spatial biomass by the model was very slight;the model has lower ability on predicting the peak area of the spatial biomass;biases of the model predictions were stay in the same areas for each groups after dynamics compare with the start stage.So,the model would get a good prediction for a group if it gets a good start.
3 Examine the fishery and conservation trade-offs resulting from marine protected areas(MPAs)in the ECS
A spatial ecosystem model(Ecospace)of the ECS was developed to examine the likely nature of trade-offs between fishery and conservation goals resulting from the MPAs.The results suggest that the overall fishery has benefited from all of the simulated MPAs and those benefits come from the cost and benefit between fishing fleets.The simulations indicate that a win-win outcome for fisheries and conservation status is possible as a result of introduction of prohibited fishing line and implement of summer fishing closure while using the average longevity and BDI as the metrics of the ecosystem status,but not guaranteed.
4 Suggestions for the ECS fishery management
(1)A win-win outcome for fisheries and ecosystem conservation status has resulted from the introduction of prohibited fishing line and implement of summer fishing closure.We suggest the enforcement of summer fishing closure be continued, and supervision and administration to the implement of prohibited fishing line be improved.
(2)Shrimp trawl fishery benefit a lot from the implement of summer fishing closure whereas the benefit of trawl,stow net and pure seine fishery are small.We suggest shorten the fishing off season and fishing off region for the trawl,stow net and pure seine fleets.
本文紧密结合渔业生态系统建模分析方法的国际前沿和我国的海洋渔业管理中的关键问题和迫切需求进行了系统研究,分析了东海渔业生态系统营养结构特征和现状,揭示了东海渔业生态系统现有渔业保护区的生态和经济效益,并在此基础上提出了一些渔业管理政策建议。本文的突出成果和结论主要体现在以下几个方面。
1.分析了东海渔业生态系统现状,揭示了大型水母爆发引发的生态系统中上层能量反馈和抑制的循环机制
通过构建包括初级生产者和碎屑在内的45个生态功能组和6种捕捞作业方式的东海生态系统ECOPATH模型,并将大型水母作为一个独立的功能组,分析东海渔业生态系统现状,并从生态系统能量平衡的角度探讨近年来东海大型水母爆发对生态系统的影响。东海生态系统平均营养级为2.87,渔获物平均营养级为2.71,拖网和帆式张网渔业活动强度增大是导致带鱼成幼鱼生物量减少或资源衰退的主要原因之一;能量流动主要发生在食物网底层部分,系统营养转换效率为14.6%;初级生产量与总呼吸量之比(P_P/R)为3.4。目前东海渔业生态系统仍处于不稳定和未成熟的“发育”阶段。
针对大型水母爆发问题,提出了:1)大型水母对中上层生物资源普遍具有显著不利影响;2)在大型水母、浮游动物和鲳鱼等小型中上层鱼类之间可能存在一个由大型水母爆发引发的生态系统中上层能量反馈循环;3)大型水母爆发初期将破坏生态系统中上层能量平衡;4)浮游动物生物量的波动可能是抑制大型水母爆发加剧的自然控制机制之一。
2.首次进行了生态系统空间模型(Ecospace)有效性验证研究
以北海生态系统及其Ecospace模型为研究对象,进行了Ecospace模型空间有效性验证研究。结果表明:在起始阶段,模型对不同功能组的有效性不同;模型对空间生物量预测比实际观测值平滑,表现为对低密度区域生物量的高估以及对高密度区域生物量的低估;模型对空间生物量具有小幅度高估现象;模型对预测空间生物量峰值的作用有限;如果模型在起始阶段对某一功能组空间生物量的预测比较准确,那么进行动态模拟后模型的预测也会比较可靠。
3.揭示了东海渔业生态系统现有渔业保护区经济和生态效益之间的权衡关系
通过东海空间生态系统Ecospace模型的构建和对东海渔业生态系统现有渔业保护区进行了四种情景模拟分析,认为东海渔业保护区总体上对渔业产业有利,但在渔业产业内部各部门之间存在成本收益的权衡或博弈。而且,在将平均寿命和生物多样性BDI作为衡量生态系统保护效益的参数时,禁渔线和伏季休渔等大尺度渔业保护区的设立能够实现渔业生产和生态系统保护的双赢。但这种双赢有待进一步研究和验证。
4.提出了对东海渔业管理的建议
(1)鉴于禁渔线的设立和伏季休渔制度的实施,可以实现渔业生产和生态系统保护的双赢,因此建议加强对禁渔线以西海域禁渔实施情况的监管,充分发挥禁渔线对东海渔业资源的养护作用,并继续实施伏季休渔制度。
(2)鉴于虾拖网渔业从伏季休渔中获益显著,而拖网、帆式张网和围网渔业的收益相对较小,建议适当缩短拖网、帆式张网和灯光围网的休渔期或适度减小休渔范围。
Fishery is an important insurance for the global food safety and has provided 15%animal protein for the whole world consumption.The wide continental shelf waters of the East China Sea(ECS)provide high abundance of fishery resource in China.Marine fishing production of the ECS reached 625.4×10~4t and 42.33%of the total marine fishing production of China Mainland.However,heavy fishing pressure has resulted in a significant change in fishery resources in the past few decades.The mean trophic level of the catch has decreased from 3.5 in 1965 to 2.8 in 1990 and the catches have become to be smaller,younger and premature individuals for some species.On the other hand,a large increase in jellyfish blooms in the ECS has occurred over the last 10 years.In response to this the Chinese government has introduced a range of fishery management measures including the introduction of fishery protected areas since 1970s.Previous studies indicated the modelling approach is a useful contribution to the overall knowledge needed to allow policy decisions to be explored in an ecosystem scale context.
The purposes of this study are using the ecosystem modelling approach to analyze the status of ECS fishery ecosystem,and to examine the likely nature of trade-offs between fishery and conservation goals resulting from the marine protected areas(MPAs).Main results and conclusions are detailed as follows.
1 Analysis on the ECS fishery ecosystem status and jellyfish bloom
Mean trophic level of the fishery catch was 2.71 while the mean trophic level for all groups was 2.87 in the ECS ecosystem.Network analysis results show the increase in fishing effort by trawl and stow net may aggravate the declining of hairtail stock in the ECS.Trophic interactions are 'web-like' where most flows occur in the lower part of the trophic web.Total throughput was 5 035.6 t km~(-2)year~(-1)and the geometric mean transfer efficiency was 14.6%.The ratio between total primary production and total system respiration P_p/R=3.4 estimated by the model indicates an immature and developing system.
Analysis of the trophic interactions has identified a possible pelagic feedback loop allowing large jellyfish blooms to develop as a result of mutual competition and predation between large jellyfish,zooplankton and small pelagic fishes.The pelagic pathway of the ecosystem will be disrupted at the initial stage of a large jellyfish bloom.And fluctuation of zooplankton biomass might be one of the natural control mechanisms of large bloom.
2 Spatial validation on the Ecospace model
Spatial validation work has been done using the North Sea Ecospace model. The results indicate:the validations of the model are different to different groups at the model start stage;the model prediction of the spatial biomass are more flat and smooth than the observation as model over-estimate the biomass in low abundance areas and under-estimate the biomass in high abundance areas;the degree of over-estimation on spatial biomass by the model was very slight;the model has lower ability on predicting the peak area of the spatial biomass;biases of the model predictions were stay in the same areas for each groups after dynamics compare with the start stage.So,the model would get a good prediction for a group if it gets a good start.
3 Examine the fishery and conservation trade-offs resulting from marine protected areas(MPAs)in the ECS
A spatial ecosystem model(Ecospace)of the ECS was developed to examine the likely nature of trade-offs between fishery and conservation goals resulting from the MPAs.The results suggest that the overall fishery has benefited from all of the simulated MPAs and those benefits come from the cost and benefit between fishing fleets.The simulations indicate that a win-win outcome for fisheries and conservation status is possible as a result of introduction of prohibited fishing line and implement of summer fishing closure while using the average longevity and BDI as the metrics of the ecosystem status,but not guaranteed.
4 Suggestions for the ECS fishery management
(1)A win-win outcome for fisheries and ecosystem conservation status has resulted from the introduction of prohibited fishing line and implement of summer fishing closure.We suggest the enforcement of summer fishing closure be continued, and supervision and administration to the implement of prohibited fishing line be improved.
(2)Shrimp trawl fishery benefit a lot from the implement of summer fishing closure whereas the benefit of trawl,stow net and pure seine fishery are small.We suggest shorten the fishing off season and fishing off region for the trawl,stow net and pure seine fleets.
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