东亚地区服务贸易合作研究
摘要
20世纪60年代，随着世界产业结构的不断调整，服务业逐渐成为世界经济结构的重心。目前，在全球的经济总量中，服务业已占60%以上，全球FDI总额的一半以上流向了服务业，发达国家服务业就业人数占总就业人数的69%。与服务业快速发展相适应，各国服务业对外贸易日益扩大，至2010年世界服务贸易出口总额达到36650亿美元，占世界贸易总额的19.8%，服务贸易已成为影响各国经济发展的重要因素。而东亚地区作为目前世界经济发展最活跃的地区，对世界服务贸易发展也起到了不可或缺的作用。2010年，东亚地区服务出口贸易额达7946亿美元，占世界服务出口的22%；进口7676亿美元，占世界服务进口的20%，由此可见，东亚地区在世界服务贸易发展中居重要地位，研究东亚地区服务贸易发展对于了解世界服务贸易发展形势，具有重要意义。
随着服务贸易的发展，国际服务贸易自由化成为国际贸易自由化领域的新议题，乌拉圭、多哈回合等都将推动服务贸易自由化发展作为重要议题纳入谈判范畴。但由于WTO多边贸易体制要求在协商一致的谈判基础上达成协议，在参与成员多，议题范围广的情况下，这种机制不但无助于谈判的进行，反而会起到抑制作用。相对而言，区域内合作涉及经济体数量少，经济发展水平接近，更容易就利益相关问题达到一致意见。因此，各国纷纷考虑推行服务贸易FTA合作计划，来替代多边体系谋取当前利益。在世界大环境的影响下，东亚地区也积极开展了FTA合作，并取得了显著效果，成为世界新一轮FTA浪潮的领跑者。而中国作为东亚地区重要经济体，在东亚服务贸易发展中处于何种位置，是否应参与东亚服务贸易合作，就成为我国对外贸易策略的重要内容。在这一背景下，考察东亚地区服务贸易的发展及合作情况，研究目前东亚地区服务贸易合作的贸易效应，就显得更为重要。
迪尔多夫等学者对传统比较优势理论进行研究，认为比较优势理论同样适用于服务贸易领域；Jones&Ruane等学者也通过建立理论模型得出结论，认为服务贸易自由化可以促进服务贸易及社会福利的增加，但政府应依据本国服务部门的比较优势来确定服务贸易自由化模式。根据上述理论，本文利用竞争优势评价指标体系考察了东亚地区服务贸易竞争力水平，结合国际形势就东亚服务贸易合作的途径选择进行了分析，认为在当前环境下，东亚地区可以利用FTA形式展开服务贸易合作，并利用倍差法等计量方法对东亚地区服务贸易FTA合作的贸易效应进行了实证检验。
根据上述研究思路和方法，全文分为六章。第一章为导论，介绍文章的写作背景、国内外研究现状、研究思路、结构安排和主要创新之处。第二章归纳了服务贸易比较优势理论和服务贸易自由化的经济效用理论。以这些理论为基础作为研究东亚服务贸易合作途径及贸易效应的理论依据。第三章从贸易规模、部门结构、贸易伙伴结构等方面考察了东亚地区服务贸易合作的现实基础，并利用产业竞争力评价指标体系对东亚服务贸易竞争力状况进行了分析。第四章就东亚服务贸易可行的合作途径进行了分析，认为在当前国际环境下，FTA合作为东亚服务贸易合作的重要途径。第五章利用2000－2010年东亚地区与主要贸易伙伴的双边服务贸易数据，从直接效应和间接效应两方面对实行FTA合作实现的服务及货物贸易效应进行了实证检验，验证了FTA合作可以对东亚地区服务贸易和货物贸易的发展起到促进作用。第六章对全文进行了总结，得出了本文研究结论，并为东亚地区服务贸易合作及中国参与东亚服务贸易合作提供了政策建议。
通过理论和实证分析，本文得出如下主要结论：
第一，东亚地区服务贸易迅猛发展，贸易规模不断扩大，在国际上的地位逐渐提高。同时，东亚服务贸易的发展结构也得以优化。从部门结构角度看，传统的交通行业比例大幅下降，而新兴的信息、专利使用等的比例有所提高；从经济主体结构看，中国在东亚服务贸易发展中异军突起，在东亚的地位不断上升，并超过日本成为东亚服务贸易第一大经济体；从贸易伙伴构成看，东亚的服务贸易合作对象相对集中，有轻微的分散化发展倾向，区域内服务贸易在东亚服务贸易中占有重要地位，成为东亚服务贸易合作的有力支撑。
第二，通过东亚服务贸易产业及分部门竞争优势的分析可知，东亚地区各经济体之间的服务贸易竞争水平存在一定梯次分布，但各经济体各有自己的优势部门，并呈现交错存在的局面。东亚地区各经济体不同的优势部门为东亚地区进行服务贸易部门间合作奠定了产业基础。
第三，随着服务贸易的发展，服务贸易自由化浪潮以不可阻挡的势头发展起来。目前，服务贸易自由化主要借助于多边贸易体制、区域贸易合作和双边自由贸易协议等途径展开。东亚地区的服务贸易自由化主要通过参与WTO贸易自由化框架下的多边谈判、参与APEC区域服务贸易自由化活动、在东亚经济体之间签署自由贸易协议实现。在当前世界环境下，WTO多边谈判步履维艰，APEC区域合作进展缓慢，而相比之下FTA合作进展迅速，且东亚地区在第三次FTA发展浪潮中处于领先地位，因此FTA合作成为东亚地区服务贸易合作的重要途径。
第四，本文利用2000－2010年东亚地区与主要贸易伙伴的双边服务贸易数据，从直接效应和间接效应两方面对实行FTA合作实现的服务及货物贸易效应进行了实证检验。验证结果表明，实施服务贸易的FTA合作，对于东亚地区服务贸易和货物贸易均存在正向直接效应，间接效应有正有负，但总体来看呈正向影响，证实FTA是促进东亚地区服务贸易合作的良好途径。
In the1960s, with the continuous adjustment of the industrial structure, theservices sector is becoming the key component of the world economic structure. Atpresent, service industry could account for more than60percent of the global GDP,more than half of the global FDI flows to the service industry, in developed countries69%of total employment is in service industry. Adapt to the rapid development of theservices industry, the value of the trade in service is increasing too. The total exportvalue of the trade in services was$3.665trillion in2010, accounting for19.8%of thetotal merchandise and services trade, trade in services has become an important factoraffecting national economic. As the world's most economically vibrant regions, thedevelopment of trade in services also play an indispensable role in East Asia. In2010,East Asia's exports of services trade amounted to$794.6billion, accounting for22%of the global exports of services; imports of$767.6billion, accounting for20percentof global imports of services. So, the East Asia’s trade in services has an absolutedominant position in Asia. And there is an important significance to study thedevelopment of trade in services in East Asian.
With the development of trade in services, liberalization of international trade inservices becomes the new issues in the field of international trade liberalization. Theissues of the liberalization of trade in services became the important problems in theUruguay Round and the Doha Round. However, due to the WTO multilateral tradingsystem requires consensus on the basis of negotiations of all the members, when thereare numbers of members and topics, this mechanism will not help the negotiationsproceed, but will play an inhibitory effect. In contrast, regional cooperation involvesless number of economies, and these economies have a closely level in the economicdevelopment, so they can reach consensus on the issues. Therefore, the countries areconsidering the implementation of FTA of the trade in services, to replace themultilateral system. Under the circumstances, East Asia is also active in the FTAcooperation, and achieved remarkable results, becoming the leader of the world's newwave of the FTA. As one of the major economies of East Asia, China is in what position in the development of East Asian trade in services, if she should be involvedin services trade cooperation in East Asia, have become an important content ofChina's foreign trade strategy. In this context, it becomes more important to study thedevelopment and the trade effects of the service trade cooperation in East Asia,
Deardorff and other scholars studyed the traditional comparative advantagetheory, regarded that the theory of comparative advantage applies equally to trade inservices; Jones&Ruane have concluded that through the establishment of thetheoretical model, the liberalization of trade in services can promote trade in servicesand social welfare increase, but the government should determine the liberalizationmode of trade in services based on the comparative advantages of their own servicedepartments. According to the above theory, this paper uses competitive advantageevaluation index system to examine the level of competitiveness of trade in servicesin East Asian regional, combining with the international situation analysis the way ofservice trade cooperation in East Asia, thinks that in the current environment EastAsia can take advantage of FTA to conduct their services trade cooperation, and usingDID model to take an empirical test on trade effects of trade in services of the FTAcooperation in East Asia.
Based on the above ideas and methods, this paper is divided into six chapters.The first chapter is the introduction to explain the writing background, research statusin home and abroad, research ideas, structural arrangements and major innovations.The second chapter summarizes the theory of comparative advantage of services tradeand service trade liberalization. This paper should study ways of cooperation andtrade effects of the East Asian trade in services on the base of these theories. The thirdchapter examines the reality basis of the service trade cooperation in East Asia,including the trade value, departmental structure, trade partner structure of the tradein services in East Asia; this chapter also uses industry competitiveness evaluationindex system to analyze the competitive situation of East Asian trade in services. Thefourth chapter analyzes the possible ways of cooperation of trade in services in EastAsian, thinks that in the current international environment, the FTA cooperation is animportant way for trade in services in East Asian. The fifth chapter using the bilateraltrade data of trade in services between East Asian region and its major trading partners from2000to2010has an empirical test to the cooperation effct of the FTAin services trade on the trade value from both direct and indirect effects, verify thatthe FTA cooperation can play a positive effect on the trade value in East Asian.Chapter VI is the summery of this paper, at the same time this chapter provides thepolicy recommendations for the cooperation of trade in services in East Asian, andprovides the policy recommendations for China's participation in services tradecooperation in East Asia.
Through the theoretical and empirical analysis, we draw the followingconclusions:
First, trade in services in East Asia rapid development, the trade value isincreasing rapidly, and the international status of East Asia’s trade services is upgrading. Atthe same time, the development structure of the East Asian trade in services has beenoptimized. From the point of the departmental structure, the traditional transportsector proportion dropped significantly, the ratio of new information and patents isincreased; from the main structure of the economy, China had a rapid development intrade in services, so that her status in East Asia surpassed Japan, and she become thelargest economy of the East Asian trade in services; from the trading partner, theservices trade partner of East Asia is relative concentration, and there is a slighttendency of decentralized, regional trade in services plays an important role in EastAsian trade in services, and regional trade has become strong support of thecooperation of trade in service in East Asia.
Second, through the analysis of the competitive advantage in the servicesindustries and its sub-sector in East Asia, we know that the developing level of thetrade in services between the various economies of East Asia the level exists to acertain echelon distribution, but the economies have their own advantages sector, andshowed a staggered exist situation. The economies have different strengths sector intrade in services sector, so there is the possibility to cooperate among the economies.
Third, with the development of trade in services, the services trade liberalizationwave is developing rapidly. At present, there are three means to the liberalization oftrade in service, including the multilateral trading system, the regional tradecooperation and bilateral free trade agreements and other means. To achieve the liberalization of services trade in East Asia, the economies mainly throughparticipation in the multilateral negotiations under the trade liberalization frameworkof WTO, participation in the APEC regional liberalization activities of trade inservices, or signing a free trade agreement between the East Asian economies. In thecurrent world environment, the progress of WTO multilateral negotiations and theAPEC regional cooperation is slow. In contrast, the progress of FTA cooperation inEast Asia is rapid and East Asia is in a leading position in the third FTA wave. SoFTA cooperation is an important way for the cooperation of trade in services in EastAsia.
Fourth, we using the bilateral services trade data between East Asian region andmajor trading partners from2000to2010, have an empirical test to the cooperationeffct of the FTA in services trade on the trade value from both direct and indirecteffects. Test results show that the implementation of the FTA cooperation of trade inservices, there is a positive direct effects on both trade in services and trade in goodsin East Asian region, the indirect effects may be positive or negative, but has apositive effect at last, this confirmes that the FTA is a good way to promote thecooperation of service trade in East Asia.
随着服务贸易的发展，国际服务贸易自由化成为国际贸易自由化领域的新议题，乌拉圭、多哈回合等都将推动服务贸易自由化发展作为重要议题纳入谈判范畴。但由于WTO多边贸易体制要求在协商一致的谈判基础上达成协议，在参与成员多，议题范围广的情况下，这种机制不但无助于谈判的进行，反而会起到抑制作用。相对而言，区域内合作涉及经济体数量少，经济发展水平接近，更容易就利益相关问题达到一致意见。因此，各国纷纷考虑推行服务贸易FTA合作计划，来替代多边体系谋取当前利益。在世界大环境的影响下，东亚地区也积极开展了FTA合作，并取得了显著效果，成为世界新一轮FTA浪潮的领跑者。而中国作为东亚地区重要经济体，在东亚服务贸易发展中处于何种位置，是否应参与东亚服务贸易合作，就成为我国对外贸易策略的重要内容。在这一背景下，考察东亚地区服务贸易的发展及合作情况，研究目前东亚地区服务贸易合作的贸易效应，就显得更为重要。
迪尔多夫等学者对传统比较优势理论进行研究，认为比较优势理论同样适用于服务贸易领域；Jones&Ruane等学者也通过建立理论模型得出结论，认为服务贸易自由化可以促进服务贸易及社会福利的增加，但政府应依据本国服务部门的比较优势来确定服务贸易自由化模式。根据上述理论，本文利用竞争优势评价指标体系考察了东亚地区服务贸易竞争力水平，结合国际形势就东亚服务贸易合作的途径选择进行了分析，认为在当前环境下，东亚地区可以利用FTA形式展开服务贸易合作，并利用倍差法等计量方法对东亚地区服务贸易FTA合作的贸易效应进行了实证检验。
根据上述研究思路和方法，全文分为六章。第一章为导论，介绍文章的写作背景、国内外研究现状、研究思路、结构安排和主要创新之处。第二章归纳了服务贸易比较优势理论和服务贸易自由化的经济效用理论。以这些理论为基础作为研究东亚服务贸易合作途径及贸易效应的理论依据。第三章从贸易规模、部门结构、贸易伙伴结构等方面考察了东亚地区服务贸易合作的现实基础，并利用产业竞争力评价指标体系对东亚服务贸易竞争力状况进行了分析。第四章就东亚服务贸易可行的合作途径进行了分析，认为在当前国际环境下，FTA合作为东亚服务贸易合作的重要途径。第五章利用2000－2010年东亚地区与主要贸易伙伴的双边服务贸易数据，从直接效应和间接效应两方面对实行FTA合作实现的服务及货物贸易效应进行了实证检验，验证了FTA合作可以对东亚地区服务贸易和货物贸易的发展起到促进作用。第六章对全文进行了总结，得出了本文研究结论，并为东亚地区服务贸易合作及中国参与东亚服务贸易合作提供了政策建议。
通过理论和实证分析，本文得出如下主要结论：
第一，东亚地区服务贸易迅猛发展，贸易规模不断扩大，在国际上的地位逐渐提高。同时，东亚服务贸易的发展结构也得以优化。从部门结构角度看，传统的交通行业比例大幅下降，而新兴的信息、专利使用等的比例有所提高；从经济主体结构看，中国在东亚服务贸易发展中异军突起，在东亚的地位不断上升，并超过日本成为东亚服务贸易第一大经济体；从贸易伙伴构成看，东亚的服务贸易合作对象相对集中，有轻微的分散化发展倾向，区域内服务贸易在东亚服务贸易中占有重要地位，成为东亚服务贸易合作的有力支撑。
第二，通过东亚服务贸易产业及分部门竞争优势的分析可知，东亚地区各经济体之间的服务贸易竞争水平存在一定梯次分布，但各经济体各有自己的优势部门，并呈现交错存在的局面。东亚地区各经济体不同的优势部门为东亚地区进行服务贸易部门间合作奠定了产业基础。
第三，随着服务贸易的发展，服务贸易自由化浪潮以不可阻挡的势头发展起来。目前，服务贸易自由化主要借助于多边贸易体制、区域贸易合作和双边自由贸易协议等途径展开。东亚地区的服务贸易自由化主要通过参与WTO贸易自由化框架下的多边谈判、参与APEC区域服务贸易自由化活动、在东亚经济体之间签署自由贸易协议实现。在当前世界环境下，WTO多边谈判步履维艰，APEC区域合作进展缓慢，而相比之下FTA合作进展迅速，且东亚地区在第三次FTA发展浪潮中处于领先地位，因此FTA合作成为东亚地区服务贸易合作的重要途径。
第四，本文利用2000－2010年东亚地区与主要贸易伙伴的双边服务贸易数据，从直接效应和间接效应两方面对实行FTA合作实现的服务及货物贸易效应进行了实证检验。验证结果表明，实施服务贸易的FTA合作，对于东亚地区服务贸易和货物贸易均存在正向直接效应，间接效应有正有负，但总体来看呈正向影响，证实FTA是促进东亚地区服务贸易合作的良好途径。
In the1960s, with the continuous adjustment of the industrial structure, theservices sector is becoming the key component of the world economic structure. Atpresent, service industry could account for more than60percent of the global GDP,more than half of the global FDI flows to the service industry, in developed countries69%of total employment is in service industry. Adapt to the rapid development of theservices industry, the value of the trade in service is increasing too. The total exportvalue of the trade in services was$3.665trillion in2010, accounting for19.8%of thetotal merchandise and services trade, trade in services has become an important factoraffecting national economic. As the world's most economically vibrant regions, thedevelopment of trade in services also play an indispensable role in East Asia. In2010,East Asia's exports of services trade amounted to$794.6billion, accounting for22%of the global exports of services; imports of$767.6billion, accounting for20percentof global imports of services. So, the East Asia’s trade in services has an absolutedominant position in Asia. And there is an important significance to study thedevelopment of trade in services in East Asian.
With the development of trade in services, liberalization of international trade inservices becomes the new issues in the field of international trade liberalization. Theissues of the liberalization of trade in services became the important problems in theUruguay Round and the Doha Round. However, due to the WTO multilateral tradingsystem requires consensus on the basis of negotiations of all the members, when thereare numbers of members and topics, this mechanism will not help the negotiationsproceed, but will play an inhibitory effect. In contrast, regional cooperation involvesless number of economies, and these economies have a closely level in the economicdevelopment, so they can reach consensus on the issues. Therefore, the countries areconsidering the implementation of FTA of the trade in services, to replace themultilateral system. Under the circumstances, East Asia is also active in the FTAcooperation, and achieved remarkable results, becoming the leader of the world's newwave of the FTA. As one of the major economies of East Asia, China is in what position in the development of East Asian trade in services, if she should be involvedin services trade cooperation in East Asia, have become an important content ofChina's foreign trade strategy. In this context, it becomes more important to study thedevelopment and the trade effects of the service trade cooperation in East Asia,
Deardorff and other scholars studyed the traditional comparative advantagetheory, regarded that the theory of comparative advantage applies equally to trade inservices; Jones&Ruane have concluded that through the establishment of thetheoretical model, the liberalization of trade in services can promote trade in servicesand social welfare increase, but the government should determine the liberalizationmode of trade in services based on the comparative advantages of their own servicedepartments. According to the above theory, this paper uses competitive advantageevaluation index system to examine the level of competitiveness of trade in servicesin East Asian regional, combining with the international situation analysis the way ofservice trade cooperation in East Asia, thinks that in the current environment EastAsia can take advantage of FTA to conduct their services trade cooperation, and usingDID model to take an empirical test on trade effects of trade in services of the FTAcooperation in East Asia.
Based on the above ideas and methods, this paper is divided into six chapters.The first chapter is the introduction to explain the writing background, research statusin home and abroad, research ideas, structural arrangements and major innovations.The second chapter summarizes the theory of comparative advantage of services tradeand service trade liberalization. This paper should study ways of cooperation andtrade effects of the East Asian trade in services on the base of these theories. The thirdchapter examines the reality basis of the service trade cooperation in East Asia,including the trade value, departmental structure, trade partner structure of the tradein services in East Asia; this chapter also uses industry competitiveness evaluationindex system to analyze the competitive situation of East Asian trade in services. Thefourth chapter analyzes the possible ways of cooperation of trade in services in EastAsian, thinks that in the current international environment, the FTA cooperation is animportant way for trade in services in East Asian. The fifth chapter using the bilateraltrade data of trade in services between East Asian region and its major trading partners from2000to2010has an empirical test to the cooperation effct of the FTAin services trade on the trade value from both direct and indirect effects, verify thatthe FTA cooperation can play a positive effect on the trade value in East Asian.Chapter VI is the summery of this paper, at the same time this chapter provides thepolicy recommendations for the cooperation of trade in services in East Asian, andprovides the policy recommendations for China's participation in services tradecooperation in East Asia.
Through the theoretical and empirical analysis, we draw the followingconclusions:
First, trade in services in East Asia rapid development, the trade value isincreasing rapidly, and the international status of East Asia’s trade services is upgrading. Atthe same time, the development structure of the East Asian trade in services has beenoptimized. From the point of the departmental structure, the traditional transportsector proportion dropped significantly, the ratio of new information and patents isincreased; from the main structure of the economy, China had a rapid development intrade in services, so that her status in East Asia surpassed Japan, and she become thelargest economy of the East Asian trade in services; from the trading partner, theservices trade partner of East Asia is relative concentration, and there is a slighttendency of decentralized, regional trade in services plays an important role in EastAsian trade in services, and regional trade has become strong support of thecooperation of trade in service in East Asia.
Second, through the analysis of the competitive advantage in the servicesindustries and its sub-sector in East Asia, we know that the developing level of thetrade in services between the various economies of East Asia the level exists to acertain echelon distribution, but the economies have their own advantages sector, andshowed a staggered exist situation. The economies have different strengths sector intrade in services sector, so there is the possibility to cooperate among the economies.
Third, with the development of trade in services, the services trade liberalizationwave is developing rapidly. At present, there are three means to the liberalization oftrade in service, including the multilateral trading system, the regional tradecooperation and bilateral free trade agreements and other means. To achieve the liberalization of services trade in East Asia, the economies mainly throughparticipation in the multilateral negotiations under the trade liberalization frameworkof WTO, participation in the APEC regional liberalization activities of trade inservices, or signing a free trade agreement between the East Asian economies. In thecurrent world environment, the progress of WTO multilateral negotiations and theAPEC regional cooperation is slow. In contrast, the progress of FTA cooperation inEast Asia is rapid and East Asia is in a leading position in the third FTA wave. SoFTA cooperation is an important way for the cooperation of trade in services in EastAsia.
Fourth, we using the bilateral services trade data between East Asian region andmajor trading partners from2000to2010, have an empirical test to the cooperationeffct of the FTA in services trade on the trade value from both direct and indirecteffects. Test results show that the implementation of the FTA cooperation of trade inservices, there is a positive direct effects on both trade in services and trade in goodsin East Asian region, the indirect effects may be positive or negative, but has apositive effect at last, this confirmes that the FTA is a good way to promote thecooperation of service trade in East Asia.
引文
1David F. Burgess. Is Trade Liberalization in the Service Sector in the National Interest?[J]. Oxford Economicpapers, V.47，pp.60-78.
1Sagari, Silvia B. International Trade in Financial Services [J]. Policy Research Working Paper Series, The WorldBank, January1989.
1李琴．WTO服务贸易谈判的进程与展望．亚太经济，2009（6）：28-32
1Masahiro K. and Ganeshan W.,2010,“Asia’s Free Trade Agreements: How is Business Responding?”, AsianDevelopment Bank Institute and Edward Elgar Publishing,7.
12007JETRO White Paper on International Trade and Foreign Direct Investment，JETRO
1孟夏，于晓燕．论中国区域服务贸易自由化的发展与特点．国际贸易，2009（9）：54-58
1廖小健，廖新年．韩国的FTA战略．外交评论，2005（10）：79-85
1U.S. International Trade Commission. ASEAN: Regional Trends in Economic Integration, ExportCompetitiveness, and Inbound Investment for Selected Industries,2-12
1数据来源：中国商务部．中国服务贸易发展报告2010
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1Masahiro K. and Ganeshan W.,2010,“Asia’s Free Trade Agreements: How is Business Responding?”, AsianDevelopment Bank Institute and Edward Elgar Publishing,7.
12007JETRO White Paper on International Trade and Foreign Direct Investment，JETRO
1孟夏，于晓燕．论中国区域服务贸易自由化的发展与特点．国际贸易，2009（9）：54-58
1廖小健，廖新年．韩国的FTA战略．外交评论，2005（10）：79-85
1U.S. International Trade Commission. ASEAN: Regional Trends in Economic Integration, ExportCompetitiveness, and Inbound Investment for Selected Industries,2-12
1数据来源：中国商务部．中国服务贸易发展报告2010
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