河北省农村信用社发展问题研究
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摘要
河北省农村信用社是河北省农村金融体系的重要组成部分,是新农村建设重要金融动力,但长期以来,农村信用社金融主力军作用不能得到全面发挥。金融资产质量偏低、不良贷款率颇高,产权不明晰、法人治理结构不完善,累积的金融风险加剧,不能满足农户的金融需求。因此,系统分析河北省农村信用社发展中存在的问题,借鉴国内外经验,实现以明晰产权、完善法人治理结构为核心的内部产权制度的创新与改革,增强防范与化解金融风险的能力,提高满足农户金融需求的水平,对于保障农村信用社健康持续性发展,具有十分重要的理论价值与现实意义。
本文以金融发展理论、产权理论、金融风险理论以及供给与需求理论为基础,借鉴国内外农村合作金融或农村信用社发展中的一些先进经验,运用规范分析和实证分析相结合的方法,借助具有代表性的问卷调查数据,通过对农村信用社的发展历程进行系统剖析,比较并分析河北省农村信用社发展中存在的问题。实证分析评价了河北省农村信用社的改革绩效,以及对河北省农村经济发展的贡献率;实际测算了河北省农村信用社的金融供给能力及农户的需求能力,并进行了实证检验;运用系列指标对河北省农村信用社面临的金融风险水平进行考量、评价与诊断;规范分析了河北省农村信用社的产权特点及法人治理结构的现状、缺陷、不足及其成因。最后提出解决河北省农村信用社可持续发展的对策建议。本文中得到了以下研究结果与结论。
1.通过对金融发展理论和农村金融理论的最新研究成果进行梳理与提炼,形成了农村金融发展理论研究框架。得出金融抑制和金融自由化不能完全解决农村信用社发展中的所有问题,在市场失灵的情况下,政府的适度干预可以保障农村信用社的健康发展。
2.通过对国外一些具有较好借鉴意义的发达国家合作金融的发展变化规律进行比较分析,得到德、美、日、法等国家农村金融发展的共同特点是商业金融和合作金融并存,合作金融是基础,商业金融是发展手段。这对于河北省农村信用社产权改革和摆脱经营困境提供了科学的理论依据和有益的经验与方法借鉴。
3.运用数据包络分析方法(DEA)对河北省农村信用社的改革绩效进行了分析,分析表明,金融发展仍然是经济发展的重要影响因素。农村信用社的金融发展水平对农村经济增长的影响在统计上是显著的,而农村金融的发展效率对农村经济增长的影响相对较弱,农村的经济增长未能带来农村信用社金融发展水平的相应提高。
4.以农民和农户的经济行为特点为分析的切入点,运用对河北省农户问卷调查数据,从供给和需求的角度,对农户的金融需求及农村金融机构尤其是农村信用社的金融供给能力进行了实证分析,运用列联分析和Probit模型对影响金融需求的主要因素进行了计量经济分析。结果显示,河北省农村信用社金融供给水平、供给结构不足,存在着严重的金融抑制。不能满足农户的金融需求。提出应重新按照市场化原则定位农村信用社的金融功能,农村信用社除了必须满足生产活动的贷款需求外,对其他类型的贷款可以有选择性的支持。构建适应农村金融需求特征的内生农村金融制度,逐步形成农村金融供给的多元化格局,提高农村金融的供给水平。
5.结合产权理论分析,构建了农村信用社产权制度研究的理论框架——农村信用社是一种不完全契约性质的产权,具有复合产权的特点。通过对河北省农村信用社产权制度和法人治理结构的调查与案例剖析,得出河北省农村信用社产权制度不明晰及法人治理结构不健全仍然是制约农村信用社健康发展的主要“瓶颈”因素。提出剩余控制权和剩余索取权的分离是农村信用社产权和法人治理结构改革缺乏内在动力的主要制度因素,使农村信用社的产权和法人治理结构的研究上升到理论层面。
6.运用金融风险理论对河北省农村信用社面临的金融风险问题从四个方面进行了分析,提出信用风险、市场风险、操作风险和制度风险是河北省农村信用社面临的主要风险。运用模糊综合评判和层次分析方法,构建指标体系,考察和评价了河北省农村信用社的金融风险水平。得出河北省农村信用社的金融风险水平处于“正常”状态。
7.深化农村信用社改革,有效解决农村信用社发展中存在的问题,是一个系统工程,不仅仅是农村信用社自身的问题,还受到政府的政策约束及不完全农村金融市场的影响,创建一个公平、公正的竞争与发展环境,强化农村信用社的自身发展,是农村信用社能够健康发展的必要条件。
Rural credit cooperatives of Hebei Province are important part of rural financial system of Hebei and it also has the important financial power to push the new rural construction. But for a long time, the main force of finance of rural credit cooperatives can not play a role sufficiently. The lower quality, the higher non-performing loan ratio, the lack of clarity of internal property rights, the imperfect corporate governance structure and the increase of financial risks accumulated of financial assets can not meet the financial needs of farmers. Therefore, systematically analyzing the problems existed in the development of the rural credit cooperatives in Hebei Province, combining the experience of home and abroad in order to realize the innovation and reform of internal property rights system setting the clarity of property rights and the improvement of corporate governance structure as the core, to strengthen the ability to guard against and reduce financial risks, and to improve the level of meeting the financial demands of the farmers and guaranteeing the healthy and sustainable development of rural credit cooperatives have great theoretical and practical significance.
Based on the theory of financial development, the property rights theory, the theory of financial risks, as well as supply and demand theory, this paper learns from some advanced experiences of rural cooperative finance or rural credit cooperatives of developed countries, comparing and analysing the problems existed in the development of rural credit cooperatives in Hebei Province through analyzing the development process of rural credit cooperatives. This paper uses the empirical analysis method to analyze and estimate the reform achievements of Hebei rural credit cooperatives and the rural economic development contribution rate of Hebei Province to measure,calculate the financial supply ability and the farmers' demand ability of rural credit cooperatives in Hebei Province and give an Empirical Test. It has a test in amounts, estimates and diagnoses the financial risk level faced by rural credit cooperatives in Hebei Province by using a series of indicators, and analyses normly the present situation, flaw, insufficiency and origin of property rights characteristics and legal person governance structure of rural credit cooperatives in Hebei Province. At last it puts forward the policies and suggestions which guarantee the healthy and sustainable development of rural credit cooperatives in Hebei Province. The paper has obtained the following research results and conclusion.
1. By sorting out the latest study of general theories of financial development and the rural finance theories, the frame studying of rural finance development theories has been formed. Financial restraint and financial liberalization can not resolve all problems of rural credit cooperatives in developing completely. And government's appropriate intervention could ensure the healthy development of rural credit cooperatives under the situation of the out of order marketplace.
2. Through comparatively researching of the development and change law of cooperative finance of some developed countries which have a better significance for reference, the paper argues that the common characteristic of developed countries such as Germany,America,Japan and France is the commercial finance and the cooperative finance coexist.The cooperative finance is the foundation and the commercial finance is the development means. This provides the scientific theoretical basis and useful experiences and ways for reforming the property rights and breaking away from the operation mess of rural credit cooperatives in China.
3. The paper uses the data envelopment analysis (DEA) to analyze the reform performance of Hebei rural credit cooperatives, which shows that the financial development is still an important impact factor of economic development in the rural financial field. The influence of the financial development level of rural credit cooperatives on the rural economic growth is remarkable. However, the influence of the development efficiency of rural finance on the rural economic growth is relatively weak. The rural economic growth is failed to bring about the corresponding elevation of the financial development level of rural credit cooperatives.
4. Taking the analysis of the economic behaviors of the farmers as the breakthrough point and taking the investigating data of the farmers in Hebei Province as the analysis gist, the paper analyzes the financial need level of the farmers in Hebei Province, the rural financial institutions and especially the financial supply ability of rural credit cooperatives from the perspective of supply and demand using the demonstration method. It uses the Contingency analysis and Probit model to carry through economy measures analysis of the financial needs of rural credit cooperatives. The results present that the lack of financial supply level and structure of rural credit cooperatives in Hebei Province and severe financial repression, difficult to meet the financial needs of farmers. The financial function of rural credit cooperatives need to be positioned according to the market-oriented principles. The rural credit cooperatives can give selective support to the other farmers’loans in addition to meeting the requirements of members. The agrarian finance system adapting to rural finance need characteristic should be constructed, the diversified pattern of rural finance supplies should be formed step by step, ande the supply of rural finance should be increaed.
5. Combining with the economic theory of property rights, the paper elaborates the characteristics of the property rights of rural credit cooperatives and presents that the property rights of rural credit cooperatives is the property rights with the nature of incomplete contract and composite rights. By investigation and case analyzing of property rights institution and corporate governance structure of Hebei rural credit cooperatives, this paper finds that unclear property rights and faulty governance structure still become the main "bottleneck" factors which restrict rural credit cooperatives’healthy development. This paper also points out that the separation of surplus controlling power and residual claim is the main inherent system factor which makes property rights institution and corporate governance structure lack inherent driving force. It makes the property rights corporate governance structure study of rural credit cooperatives rise into the tier of theory.
6. This paper uses the general financial risks theory and the rural financial risks theory to analyze the problems on financial risks faced by rural credit cooperatives in Hebei Province in four aspects and presents that credit risk, market risk, operational risk and systems risk are the major risks faced by rural credit cooperatives. It uses fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and analytic hierarchy process to build index system and inspect, evaluate the level of financial risk of rural credit cooperatives in Hebei Province. The results bring out the conclusion that get the conclusion the level of financial risk of rural credit cooperatives in Hebei Province is in regular state.
7. To deepen the reform of rural credit cooperatives and effectively resolve the problems existed in the development of rural credit cooperatives is a system engineering, which is not only their own problem of rural credit cooperatives, but also affected by the policy restraint of government and the incomplete rural financial markets. To create a fair and just environment for competing and developing and to strengthen the self-development of rural credit cooperatives are the necessary conditions for healthy development of rural credit cooperatives.
本文以金融发展理论、产权理论、金融风险理论以及供给与需求理论为基础,借鉴国内外农村合作金融或农村信用社发展中的一些先进经验,运用规范分析和实证分析相结合的方法,借助具有代表性的问卷调查数据,通过对农村信用社的发展历程进行系统剖析,比较并分析河北省农村信用社发展中存在的问题。实证分析评价了河北省农村信用社的改革绩效,以及对河北省农村经济发展的贡献率;实际测算了河北省农村信用社的金融供给能力及农户的需求能力,并进行了实证检验;运用系列指标对河北省农村信用社面临的金融风险水平进行考量、评价与诊断;规范分析了河北省农村信用社的产权特点及法人治理结构的现状、缺陷、不足及其成因。最后提出解决河北省农村信用社可持续发展的对策建议。本文中得到了以下研究结果与结论。
1.通过对金融发展理论和农村金融理论的最新研究成果进行梳理与提炼,形成了农村金融发展理论研究框架。得出金融抑制和金融自由化不能完全解决农村信用社发展中的所有问题,在市场失灵的情况下,政府的适度干预可以保障农村信用社的健康发展。
2.通过对国外一些具有较好借鉴意义的发达国家合作金融的发展变化规律进行比较分析,得到德、美、日、法等国家农村金融发展的共同特点是商业金融和合作金融并存,合作金融是基础,商业金融是发展手段。这对于河北省农村信用社产权改革和摆脱经营困境提供了科学的理论依据和有益的经验与方法借鉴。
3.运用数据包络分析方法(DEA)对河北省农村信用社的改革绩效进行了分析,分析表明,金融发展仍然是经济发展的重要影响因素。农村信用社的金融发展水平对农村经济增长的影响在统计上是显著的,而农村金融的发展效率对农村经济增长的影响相对较弱,农村的经济增长未能带来农村信用社金融发展水平的相应提高。
4.以农民和农户的经济行为特点为分析的切入点,运用对河北省农户问卷调查数据,从供给和需求的角度,对农户的金融需求及农村金融机构尤其是农村信用社的金融供给能力进行了实证分析,运用列联分析和Probit模型对影响金融需求的主要因素进行了计量经济分析。结果显示,河北省农村信用社金融供给水平、供给结构不足,存在着严重的金融抑制。不能满足农户的金融需求。提出应重新按照市场化原则定位农村信用社的金融功能,农村信用社除了必须满足生产活动的贷款需求外,对其他类型的贷款可以有选择性的支持。构建适应农村金融需求特征的内生农村金融制度,逐步形成农村金融供给的多元化格局,提高农村金融的供给水平。
5.结合产权理论分析,构建了农村信用社产权制度研究的理论框架——农村信用社是一种不完全契约性质的产权,具有复合产权的特点。通过对河北省农村信用社产权制度和法人治理结构的调查与案例剖析,得出河北省农村信用社产权制度不明晰及法人治理结构不健全仍然是制约农村信用社健康发展的主要“瓶颈”因素。提出剩余控制权和剩余索取权的分离是农村信用社产权和法人治理结构改革缺乏内在动力的主要制度因素,使农村信用社的产权和法人治理结构的研究上升到理论层面。
6.运用金融风险理论对河北省农村信用社面临的金融风险问题从四个方面进行了分析,提出信用风险、市场风险、操作风险和制度风险是河北省农村信用社面临的主要风险。运用模糊综合评判和层次分析方法,构建指标体系,考察和评价了河北省农村信用社的金融风险水平。得出河北省农村信用社的金融风险水平处于“正常”状态。
7.深化农村信用社改革,有效解决农村信用社发展中存在的问题,是一个系统工程,不仅仅是农村信用社自身的问题,还受到政府的政策约束及不完全农村金融市场的影响,创建一个公平、公正的竞争与发展环境,强化农村信用社的自身发展,是农村信用社能够健康发展的必要条件。
Rural credit cooperatives of Hebei Province are important part of rural financial system of Hebei and it also has the important financial power to push the new rural construction. But for a long time, the main force of finance of rural credit cooperatives can not play a role sufficiently. The lower quality, the higher non-performing loan ratio, the lack of clarity of internal property rights, the imperfect corporate governance structure and the increase of financial risks accumulated of financial assets can not meet the financial needs of farmers. Therefore, systematically analyzing the problems existed in the development of the rural credit cooperatives in Hebei Province, combining the experience of home and abroad in order to realize the innovation and reform of internal property rights system setting the clarity of property rights and the improvement of corporate governance structure as the core, to strengthen the ability to guard against and reduce financial risks, and to improve the level of meeting the financial demands of the farmers and guaranteeing the healthy and sustainable development of rural credit cooperatives have great theoretical and practical significance.
Based on the theory of financial development, the property rights theory, the theory of financial risks, as well as supply and demand theory, this paper learns from some advanced experiences of rural cooperative finance or rural credit cooperatives of developed countries, comparing and analysing the problems existed in the development of rural credit cooperatives in Hebei Province through analyzing the development process of rural credit cooperatives. This paper uses the empirical analysis method to analyze and estimate the reform achievements of Hebei rural credit cooperatives and the rural economic development contribution rate of Hebei Province to measure,calculate the financial supply ability and the farmers' demand ability of rural credit cooperatives in Hebei Province and give an Empirical Test. It has a test in amounts, estimates and diagnoses the financial risk level faced by rural credit cooperatives in Hebei Province by using a series of indicators, and analyses normly the present situation, flaw, insufficiency and origin of property rights characteristics and legal person governance structure of rural credit cooperatives in Hebei Province. At last it puts forward the policies and suggestions which guarantee the healthy and sustainable development of rural credit cooperatives in Hebei Province. The paper has obtained the following research results and conclusion.
1. By sorting out the latest study of general theories of financial development and the rural finance theories, the frame studying of rural finance development theories has been formed. Financial restraint and financial liberalization can not resolve all problems of rural credit cooperatives in developing completely. And government's appropriate intervention could ensure the healthy development of rural credit cooperatives under the situation of the out of order marketplace.
2. Through comparatively researching of the development and change law of cooperative finance of some developed countries which have a better significance for reference, the paper argues that the common characteristic of developed countries such as Germany,America,Japan and France is the commercial finance and the cooperative finance coexist.The cooperative finance is the foundation and the commercial finance is the development means. This provides the scientific theoretical basis and useful experiences and ways for reforming the property rights and breaking away from the operation mess of rural credit cooperatives in China.
3. The paper uses the data envelopment analysis (DEA) to analyze the reform performance of Hebei rural credit cooperatives, which shows that the financial development is still an important impact factor of economic development in the rural financial field. The influence of the financial development level of rural credit cooperatives on the rural economic growth is remarkable. However, the influence of the development efficiency of rural finance on the rural economic growth is relatively weak. The rural economic growth is failed to bring about the corresponding elevation of the financial development level of rural credit cooperatives.
4. Taking the analysis of the economic behaviors of the farmers as the breakthrough point and taking the investigating data of the farmers in Hebei Province as the analysis gist, the paper analyzes the financial need level of the farmers in Hebei Province, the rural financial institutions and especially the financial supply ability of rural credit cooperatives from the perspective of supply and demand using the demonstration method. It uses the Contingency analysis and Probit model to carry through economy measures analysis of the financial needs of rural credit cooperatives. The results present that the lack of financial supply level and structure of rural credit cooperatives in Hebei Province and severe financial repression, difficult to meet the financial needs of farmers. The financial function of rural credit cooperatives need to be positioned according to the market-oriented principles. The rural credit cooperatives can give selective support to the other farmers’loans in addition to meeting the requirements of members. The agrarian finance system adapting to rural finance need characteristic should be constructed, the diversified pattern of rural finance supplies should be formed step by step, ande the supply of rural finance should be increaed.
5. Combining with the economic theory of property rights, the paper elaborates the characteristics of the property rights of rural credit cooperatives and presents that the property rights of rural credit cooperatives is the property rights with the nature of incomplete contract and composite rights. By investigation and case analyzing of property rights institution and corporate governance structure of Hebei rural credit cooperatives, this paper finds that unclear property rights and faulty governance structure still become the main "bottleneck" factors which restrict rural credit cooperatives’healthy development. This paper also points out that the separation of surplus controlling power and residual claim is the main inherent system factor which makes property rights institution and corporate governance structure lack inherent driving force. It makes the property rights corporate governance structure study of rural credit cooperatives rise into the tier of theory.
6. This paper uses the general financial risks theory and the rural financial risks theory to analyze the problems on financial risks faced by rural credit cooperatives in Hebei Province in four aspects and presents that credit risk, market risk, operational risk and systems risk are the major risks faced by rural credit cooperatives. It uses fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and analytic hierarchy process to build index system and inspect, evaluate the level of financial risk of rural credit cooperatives in Hebei Province. The results bring out the conclusion that get the conclusion the level of financial risk of rural credit cooperatives in Hebei Province is in regular state.
7. To deepen the reform of rural credit cooperatives and effectively resolve the problems existed in the development of rural credit cooperatives is a system engineering, which is not only their own problem of rural credit cooperatives, but also affected by the policy restraint of government and the incomplete rural financial markets. To create a fair and just environment for competing and developing and to strengthen the self-development of rural credit cooperatives are the necessary conditions for healthy development of rural credit cooperatives.
引文
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