中国工业经济运行效率研究：1980-2006
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摘要
工业是国民经济的主导,工业化是经济现代化的核心和基础。工业经济的发展水平和运行效率的高低决定着其他产业部门乃至整个国民经济发展的水平与运行效率的高低。提高工业经济运行效率,既是工业经济转变增长方式的迫切需要,也是工业大国迈向工业强国的关键所在。中国目前正处在工业化的中期,工业化是一个效率至上的市场竞争过程,效率分析成为探求中国工业经济增长源泉的重要工具,同时也是研判中国工业经济运行质量的主要方法。提高运行效率是当前中国工业经济管理的前沿课题之一。
迄今为止,不少学者对中国工业经济运行效率进行了不同角度的实证研究,但尚未取得比较一致的结论,对中国工业经济运行效率的内在规律认识还不够深入,对中国工业经济运行效率的影响因素揭示还不够清楚。因此,本论文旨在从上述几个方面弥补现有文献研究的不足,运用DEA数据包络分析法以及Malmquist曼奎斯特效率指数法,对1980-2006年中国工业经济的运行效率进行全方位测度和研究,以发掘中国工业经济运行效率的变化规律、波动趋势,识别中国工业经济运行效率的主要影响因素,形成改善和提升中国工业经济运行效率的政策建议,从而为中国制定正确的工业经济发展战略提供决策依据。
概括起来,本文的主要研究内容如下:
第1章交待了本文的研究背景、目的意义、研究现状、内容结构、研究方法、技术路线等,为全文的研究提供了一个总纲性的框架设计结构。
第2章主要对效率概念进行了界定,对效率的内涵进行了深入挖掘,对效率的判断标准进行了全面探讨,特别是对效率形成的源泉进行了归纳总结,对当前常用的效率测度方法进行了介绍与比较,为全文的研究奠定理论基础。
第3章系统梳理了中国工业经济运行效率研究的现状和动向,对中国工业经济运行效率研究的不同层面、不同视角进行归纳比较,特别指出目前研究中存在的争论与分歧,存在的不足与尚待改进的地方,由此提出本文研究的着力点与切入点。
第4章详细回顾了中国工业经济发展的历史,剖析了中国工业经济改革的过程,总结了中国工业经济取得的成就,分析了中国工业经济运行的基本特征。在此基础上,着重探讨了当前中国工业经济运行中存在的问题,以详细的数据、事实和理论分析来论证中国工业转变增长方式、提高经济运行效率的必要性、紧迫性。
第5章利用非参数DEA数据包络分析方法从静态角度测算了1980-2006年中国工业经济运行效率的总水平,并利用Malmquist指数按照地区特征、行业特征、产权特征、结构规模特征等分类标准对工业经济运行效率逐一进行了动态分解,以全方位、多角度剖析中国工业经济运行效率的变化规律。
从整体来看,27年间中国工业经济运行效率的平均值为0.889,表明自1980年以来中国工业经济总体运行状况是“非DEA有效”的,中国工业经济运行的效率水平还不高。从中国工业经济运行效率的阶段性波动特征来看,1980-1991年表现为震荡下降, 1992-2000年表现为剧烈波动, 2001-2006年表现为持续上升。虽然改革至今中国工业经济的运行效率有升有降,但总体呈不断提高趋势,全要素生产率平均增幅达4.9%,且呈现出规模收益递增特征。工业经济效率的差异是导致地区工业化水平出现差异的重要原因。中国工业经济的效率中心主要在以上海为龙头的长三角地区。在长期的工业经济发展中,逐渐形成一个效率扩散与技术溢出的模式,发达地区是技术进步的创新者与生产前沿面的推动者,欠发达地区是技术进步的模仿者与生产前沿面的追赶者。
从工业行业来看,以石油、电力、钢铁(黑色金属)为代表的基础产业、以电气机械制造业为代表的装备制造业、以医药、通信设备为代表的高新技术产业和高利润的烟草制造业,效率提高较快;从产权属性来看,股份有限公司效率较高,私营企业次之,三资企业再次之,然后为集体企业,较低的是国有及国有控股企业。非国有企业的产权制度安排具有比国有企业更高的经济运行效率。此外,重工业的全要素生产率增长与技术进步明显优于轻工业,规模经济与技术进步成为重工业效率改善的主要源泉;大型工业企业的效率高过中小型工业企业,“小企业高效率、大企业低效率”的命题并不成立。
第6章重点分析了开放化、市场化、民营化、规模化、R&D投入、信息化、以及人力资本因素对中国工业经济运行效率的影响。建立包含双产出的扩展型C-D函数,在此基础上推导出分析中国工业经济运行效率影响因素的计量经济模型。协整检验发现,中国工业经济全要素生产率TFP的变化与上述影响因素的变动之间存在长期均衡关系。通过建立误差修正模型,发现误差修正项对工业经济TFP增长率的波动偏离长期均衡具有很强的反向调整作用。在短期波动中,开放化、市场化、民营化、信息化、R&D投入对中国工业经济效率具有积极的正面促进作用,而规模与人力资本因素却呈现出负面的阻滞作用。进一步的分析表明,隐藏在规模背后的“国有”因素对效率造成了较大的负面影响,人力资本计量指标的局限性导致了模型估计出现偏误,对人力资本与中国工业效率关系的研究有待进一步实证。相对而言,以“开放化、市场化、民营化”为主轴的制度变革因素对中国工业经济效率的影响作用最显著。
第7章主要运用现代经济学基本原理和产业经济演变的历史规律与经验,结合中国工业经济发展的实际国情,归纳提炼出十一个方面的政策要点,作为改善和提高当前中国工业经济运行效率的对策措施,即:推动技术进步,提高全要素生产率;优化产业结构,提升结构效率;降低能源消耗,提高能源利用效率;推行循环经济战略,改善投入产出效率;攀登“二次微笑曲线”制高点,提高产业附加值率;实施产业“蓝海战略”,催生范围效率;实施信息化战略,营造外部性效率;实施交通振兴战略,提高物流效率;发展产业集群,提高组织效率;深化国有企业改革,激发制度效率;深化价格改革,提高资源配置效率。
本论文的创新之处主要体现在以下几方面:
1、丰富了对效率源泉的理论认识
对经济运行效率产生的源泉做了深入探索,梳理、归纳、总结出12种不同形态的效率源泉——规模效率、范围效率、学习效率、技术效率、配置效率、竞争效率、组织效率、制度效率、X效率、物流效率、交易效率和外部性效率。明确指出外部性可以产生经济效率,即存在于现代网络经济当中的连带外部性特征使生产活动表现出边际成本递减和报酬递增的趋势,因而存在外部性经济效率,这一观点开拓了人们认识效率源泉的新空间。
2、进一步完善了对中国工业经济运行效率的测算与分解
对于目前已有的研究中国工业经济运行效率的大多数文献而言,要么是选择的“时间窗口”长短不一,要么是考察工业经济的范围口径有别,难免存在以偏概全的“硬伤”与“断章取义”的“暇疵”。本文以全部国有及规模以上非国有工业企业构成的集合作为中国工业经济的代表,以1980-2006连续27年的完整时间窗口作为时空定位,利用非参数DEA方法从静态角度测算了中国工业经济运行效率的总水平,并利用Malmquist指数按照地区特征、行业特征、产权特征、结构特征、规模特征等分类标准对工业经济运行效率逐一进行了动态分解,以全方位、多角度剖析中国工业经济运行效率的变化规律。无论是研究的时间范围,还是涉及的研究视角,本论文都在相当程度上做了进一步完善。
3、扩展了传统C-D生产函数的结构表达
传统C-D生产函数用劳动和资本两个变量来解释复杂的经济产出,把除此之外的非要素投入简化成一个既定不变的技术常数,这既与经济发展的现实不符,也不便于对效率的深入研究。对此,本论文重新选取变量构造了新的C-D生产函数:一是扩展产出,增加利润产出变量,避免传统单一产出建模的片面性;二是分解技术性常数,进一步细化该常数的组成成份,扩展制度、技术、信息、政策、人力资本等诸多非实体性要素的投入。由此进一步推理得到分析效率影响因子的计量经济模型。
4、进一步深化了中国工业经济运行效率的制度分析
将改革开放至今中国工业经济制度变革的主要内容概括为“开放化、市场化、民营化”为主轴的三次改革;将促使中国工业经济不断自求变革的内在诱因总结为“80年代混合双轨制下的经营僵化、90年代买方市场下的经营亏损、2000年以后市场失灵下的经营粗放”带来的三次制度困境;对困境的冲破,先后经历了管理变革、制度变革、产权变革、观念变革的四次大洗礼。管理变革的目的是解决企业与政府的委托经营问题,以获得X效率、组织效率;制度变革的目的是解决企业与市场的进入问题,以获得竞争效率、配置效率;产权变革的目的是解决企业与资本的归属问题,以获得产权效率;观念变革的目的是解决企业与发展道路的选择问题,以贯彻落实科学发展观,转变增长方式,全面提高经济运行效率。归根结底,制度变革对中国工业经济效率的影响最为显著也最为深刻。
5、拓展了中国工业经济运行效率的对策研究
除了对传统观点进行系统性总结、归纳和进一步提炼之外,还在两个方面做了最新的拓展。一是攀登“二次微笑曲线”制高点,提高产业附加值率。由于现代产业的发展已经从以硬投入为主转向以软投入为主,并加速从实体经济向虚拟经济转型,全球价值链正在重新分化裂变。为此,本文提出了“二次微笑曲线”的全新概念。指出中国工业要提高经济运行效率,必须打破仅仅停留在工业领域内思考工业经济运行的旧观念,要跳出工业视野,从产业进化、产业融合的战略高度为工业经济寻找新的效率源泉。二是实施产业“蓝海战略”,催生范围效率。随着市场环境和消费需求的转变,中国传统工业产业将逐渐步入寿命周期的尾声,运行效率低下、收益递减。对这些产业,应及时实施“蓝海战略”,利用TRIZ理论预测产业未来发展趋势,超越现有需求的“范围边界”,开辟出新的利润“蓝海”和效率“蓝海”。产业“蓝海战略”为传统产业获取经济运行效率提供了一种新的思路。
Industry is a leading factor of national economy, and industrialization is the core and foundation of economic modernization. The level of the industrial economy development and operational efficiency determines the one of other departments and of even the whole national economy. Improving operational efficiency of the industrial economy is not only the urgent need to change growth way for industrial economy, but also the key point that big industrial country marches toward powerful industrial country.
Nowadays, China is at the middle period of industrialization, which is a market competition course orientated to highest efficiency. Efficiency analysis has become an important tool of seeking source of China’s industrial economic growth, and become main method of appraising its operational quality. At present, improving operational efficiency is one of the front subjects of China’s industrial economic management.
Up until now, there are lots of researches on operational efficiency of China’s industrial economy from different angles, but has not made a common conclusion yet. It is still not deep enough to know its inherent law, and not clear enough to recognite its influence factors. So, this dissertation aims at remedying the deficiency of the existing literature from several aspects described above. By use of DEA and Malmquist index, this dissertation comprehensively estimate and research the operational efficiency of China’s industrial economy from 1980 to 2006, in order to explore the change law and fluctuating trend of China’s industrial economic operational efficiency, recognite its the main influence factors, put forward suggestion and policy to improve and promote the operational efficiency of China’s industrial economy, thus can offer decision basis for China to make the correct development strategy of industrial economy. Summarily, the main contents of this dissertation are as follows:
Chapter 1 has explained the research background, purpose and meaning, current research situation, content structure, research approach, technological route,etc., which offered a superclass frame for all research.
Chapter 2 has mainly defined concept of efficiency, explored deep into its intension, discussed overall its judgement standards, summarized its sources, introduced and compared its estimating methods used commonly. These established the theoretical foundation for the whole research.
Chapter 3 has combed the current situation and tendency in operational efficiency research of China’s industrial economy, compared and summaried its researches from different aspects and visual angle, especially pointed out the existing dispute, difference and deficiency which need to be improved, therefore found out the breakthrough point of research for the dissertation.
Chapter 4 has detailedly reviewed the history of China’s industrial economic development, dissected its reform course, summarized its achievements, analyzed its essential operation features, probed into its existing problems emphatically, and demonstrated the necessity and urgency of China’s industry to change growth way and improve operational efficiency by detailed data, fact and theory.
Chapter 5 has calculated the total efficiency of China’s industrial economy during 1980-2006 from the static angle with non-parameter method of DEA, and decomposed it from the dynamic angle by malmquist index method, according to different classification criterias such as regional characteristic, industrial characteristic, property right characteristic, structure or scale characteristic, in order to dissect its change law completely.
As a whole, the average efficiency of China’s industrial economy is 0.889 among 27 years, which indicates China’s industrial economy has been non-DEA effective since 1980, and its efficiency level is still not high.
Chapter 6 has emphatically analyzed the influence of openization, marketization, privatization, scale, R&D input, and informationization upon operational efficiency of China’s industrial economy. It established an extended C-D function which includes double produce, on this basis deduced out the econometrics model to analyze influence factors of China’s industrial economic efficiency. With cointegration test, we can find the fluctuation of TFP has a long time balance relation with its influence factors. Through setting up ECM model, we can find the ecm has powerful opposite adjustment function while the fluctuation of TFP is deviated from long time balance. In short time fluctuation, openization, marketization, privatization, R&D input of large and medium-sized industrial enterprises, and informationization have positive facilitation to efficiency of China’s industrial economy, but scale and human capital demonstrate negative blocking function. Comparatively speaking, system reform and institution innovation, which centred upon openization, marketization and privatization, have most prominent influence on efficiency of China’s industrial economy.
Based on principle of modern economics and historical law and experience of industrial economic development, as well as the real national conditions of China’s industrial economic development, chapter 7 has mainly summaried and refined 11 policy points as countermeasures to improve the operational efficiency of China’s industrial economy at present, i.e., promote technological progress to improve TFP; optimize industrial structure to promote structural efficiency; reduce energy consumption to improve energy efficiency; develop recycle economy to improve input-output efficiency; climb upper“two times smiling curve”to improve added value; implement“blue sea strategy”to get scope efficiency; implement informationization strategy to get external efficiency; implement traffic development strategy to improve logistics efficiency; develop industrial cluster to improve organization efficiency; deepen SOE reform to stimulate institutional efficiency; deepen price reform to improve resource distribution efficiency.
The main innovations of this dissertation embody in the following aspects:
1. It has developed the knowledge of efficiency source
The dissertation has summarized 12 different efficiency sources, i.e., scale efficiency, scope efficiency, learning efficiency, technological efficiency, distribution efficiency, competition efficiency, organization efficiency, institutional efficiency, X efficiency, logistics efficiency, trade efficiency and external efficiency. It point clearly out externality which exists in modern network-economy can produce economic efficiency by making the marginal cost of production activity to decrease and marginal return to increase at the same time. This view has opened up the new space for people to realize the efficiency source.
2. It has improved calculation and decomposition of operational efficiency of China’s industrial economy
This dissertation takes all SOEs and non- SOEs above scale as representative for China’s industrial economy, takes time windows of 1980-2006 as the space-time localization, and calculates the total efficiency of China’s industrial economy in 1980-2006 from the static angle with non-parameter method of DEA, and decomposes it from the dynamic angle by malmquist index method. No matter in the time range of study, or the visual angle involved in research, this dissertation has given further improvement to a great extent.
3. It has expanded the structural form of traditional C-D production function
This dissertation has established a new C-D production function by choosing variable again: First, expand output by increasing profit variable to prevent one-sidedness of traditional modeling with single variable; Second, decompose the technological constant into some non-entity elements such as institution, technology, information, policy, human capital,etc., therefore further deduced out the econometrics model to analyze influence factors of China’s industrial economic efficiency.
4. It has deepened the institutional analysis of China’s industrial economic operational efficiency.
This dissertation summarized China’s institutional innovation after the reform and open as three system reforms which centred upon openization, marketization and privatization, generalized the inherent reasons for China’s industrial economic to pursue innovation by itself as three times of institutional dilemma, i.e., management rigidity under the dual track system in 1980s, operation loss under buyer’s market in 1990s, operation extensiveness under market failure after 2000 year. To break through these predicaments, China’s industrial economy has sequentially gone through management, institution, property right, and idea innovation. The purpose of management innovation is to improve the delegation management of enterprise for government, institution innovation is to solve the market entry of enterprise, property right innovation is to solve the capital ownership problem of enterprise, and idea innovation is to solve the choice problem in development path of enterprises.
5. It has expanded the countermeasure research of operational efficiency of China’s industrial economy
Besides summaring, generalizing, and further refining the traditional opinions, this dissertation has also done the newest expansion in two aspects. First, put forward the brand-new concept of“two times smiling curve”, point out that Chinese industry must break the old idea and jump out the industrial field to research industrial economy, looks for new efficiency source from the strategic height of industrial evolution and merger. Second, this dissertation think China’s industry should implement“blue sea strategy”in order to get scope efficiency, and predict industry’s future development trend by TRIZ theory, stride over the border of the existing demand, pioneer the new“blue sea”of profit and efficiency. This offers a kind of new thinking way for traditional industry to obtain economic operational efficiency.
迄今为止,不少学者对中国工业经济运行效率进行了不同角度的实证研究,但尚未取得比较一致的结论,对中国工业经济运行效率的内在规律认识还不够深入,对中国工业经济运行效率的影响因素揭示还不够清楚。因此,本论文旨在从上述几个方面弥补现有文献研究的不足,运用DEA数据包络分析法以及Malmquist曼奎斯特效率指数法,对1980-2006年中国工业经济的运行效率进行全方位测度和研究,以发掘中国工业经济运行效率的变化规律、波动趋势,识别中国工业经济运行效率的主要影响因素,形成改善和提升中国工业经济运行效率的政策建议,从而为中国制定正确的工业经济发展战略提供决策依据。
概括起来,本文的主要研究内容如下:
第1章交待了本文的研究背景、目的意义、研究现状、内容结构、研究方法、技术路线等,为全文的研究提供了一个总纲性的框架设计结构。
第2章主要对效率概念进行了界定,对效率的内涵进行了深入挖掘,对效率的判断标准进行了全面探讨,特别是对效率形成的源泉进行了归纳总结,对当前常用的效率测度方法进行了介绍与比较,为全文的研究奠定理论基础。
第3章系统梳理了中国工业经济运行效率研究的现状和动向,对中国工业经济运行效率研究的不同层面、不同视角进行归纳比较,特别指出目前研究中存在的争论与分歧,存在的不足与尚待改进的地方,由此提出本文研究的着力点与切入点。
第4章详细回顾了中国工业经济发展的历史,剖析了中国工业经济改革的过程,总结了中国工业经济取得的成就,分析了中国工业经济运行的基本特征。在此基础上,着重探讨了当前中国工业经济运行中存在的问题,以详细的数据、事实和理论分析来论证中国工业转变增长方式、提高经济运行效率的必要性、紧迫性。
第5章利用非参数DEA数据包络分析方法从静态角度测算了1980-2006年中国工业经济运行效率的总水平,并利用Malmquist指数按照地区特征、行业特征、产权特征、结构规模特征等分类标准对工业经济运行效率逐一进行了动态分解,以全方位、多角度剖析中国工业经济运行效率的变化规律。
从整体来看,27年间中国工业经济运行效率的平均值为0.889,表明自1980年以来中国工业经济总体运行状况是“非DEA有效”的,中国工业经济运行的效率水平还不高。从中国工业经济运行效率的阶段性波动特征来看,1980-1991年表现为震荡下降, 1992-2000年表现为剧烈波动, 2001-2006年表现为持续上升。虽然改革至今中国工业经济的运行效率有升有降,但总体呈不断提高趋势,全要素生产率平均增幅达4.9%,且呈现出规模收益递增特征。工业经济效率的差异是导致地区工业化水平出现差异的重要原因。中国工业经济的效率中心主要在以上海为龙头的长三角地区。在长期的工业经济发展中,逐渐形成一个效率扩散与技术溢出的模式,发达地区是技术进步的创新者与生产前沿面的推动者,欠发达地区是技术进步的模仿者与生产前沿面的追赶者。
从工业行业来看,以石油、电力、钢铁(黑色金属)为代表的基础产业、以电气机械制造业为代表的装备制造业、以医药、通信设备为代表的高新技术产业和高利润的烟草制造业,效率提高较快;从产权属性来看,股份有限公司效率较高,私营企业次之,三资企业再次之,然后为集体企业,较低的是国有及国有控股企业。非国有企业的产权制度安排具有比国有企业更高的经济运行效率。此外,重工业的全要素生产率增长与技术进步明显优于轻工业,规模经济与技术进步成为重工业效率改善的主要源泉;大型工业企业的效率高过中小型工业企业,“小企业高效率、大企业低效率”的命题并不成立。
第6章重点分析了开放化、市场化、民营化、规模化、R&D投入、信息化、以及人力资本因素对中国工业经济运行效率的影响。建立包含双产出的扩展型C-D函数,在此基础上推导出分析中国工业经济运行效率影响因素的计量经济模型。协整检验发现,中国工业经济全要素生产率TFP的变化与上述影响因素的变动之间存在长期均衡关系。通过建立误差修正模型,发现误差修正项对工业经济TFP增长率的波动偏离长期均衡具有很强的反向调整作用。在短期波动中,开放化、市场化、民营化、信息化、R&D投入对中国工业经济效率具有积极的正面促进作用,而规模与人力资本因素却呈现出负面的阻滞作用。进一步的分析表明,隐藏在规模背后的“国有”因素对效率造成了较大的负面影响,人力资本计量指标的局限性导致了模型估计出现偏误,对人力资本与中国工业效率关系的研究有待进一步实证。相对而言,以“开放化、市场化、民营化”为主轴的制度变革因素对中国工业经济效率的影响作用最显著。
第7章主要运用现代经济学基本原理和产业经济演变的历史规律与经验,结合中国工业经济发展的实际国情,归纳提炼出十一个方面的政策要点,作为改善和提高当前中国工业经济运行效率的对策措施,即:推动技术进步,提高全要素生产率;优化产业结构,提升结构效率;降低能源消耗,提高能源利用效率;推行循环经济战略,改善投入产出效率;攀登“二次微笑曲线”制高点,提高产业附加值率;实施产业“蓝海战略”,催生范围效率;实施信息化战略,营造外部性效率;实施交通振兴战略,提高物流效率;发展产业集群,提高组织效率;深化国有企业改革,激发制度效率;深化价格改革,提高资源配置效率。
本论文的创新之处主要体现在以下几方面:
1、丰富了对效率源泉的理论认识
对经济运行效率产生的源泉做了深入探索,梳理、归纳、总结出12种不同形态的效率源泉——规模效率、范围效率、学习效率、技术效率、配置效率、竞争效率、组织效率、制度效率、X效率、物流效率、交易效率和外部性效率。明确指出外部性可以产生经济效率,即存在于现代网络经济当中的连带外部性特征使生产活动表现出边际成本递减和报酬递增的趋势,因而存在外部性经济效率,这一观点开拓了人们认识效率源泉的新空间。
2、进一步完善了对中国工业经济运行效率的测算与分解
对于目前已有的研究中国工业经济运行效率的大多数文献而言,要么是选择的“时间窗口”长短不一,要么是考察工业经济的范围口径有别,难免存在以偏概全的“硬伤”与“断章取义”的“暇疵”。本文以全部国有及规模以上非国有工业企业构成的集合作为中国工业经济的代表,以1980-2006连续27年的完整时间窗口作为时空定位,利用非参数DEA方法从静态角度测算了中国工业经济运行效率的总水平,并利用Malmquist指数按照地区特征、行业特征、产权特征、结构特征、规模特征等分类标准对工业经济运行效率逐一进行了动态分解,以全方位、多角度剖析中国工业经济运行效率的变化规律。无论是研究的时间范围,还是涉及的研究视角,本论文都在相当程度上做了进一步完善。
3、扩展了传统C-D生产函数的结构表达
传统C-D生产函数用劳动和资本两个变量来解释复杂的经济产出,把除此之外的非要素投入简化成一个既定不变的技术常数,这既与经济发展的现实不符,也不便于对效率的深入研究。对此,本论文重新选取变量构造了新的C-D生产函数:一是扩展产出,增加利润产出变量,避免传统单一产出建模的片面性;二是分解技术性常数,进一步细化该常数的组成成份,扩展制度、技术、信息、政策、人力资本等诸多非实体性要素的投入。由此进一步推理得到分析效率影响因子的计量经济模型。
4、进一步深化了中国工业经济运行效率的制度分析
将改革开放至今中国工业经济制度变革的主要内容概括为“开放化、市场化、民营化”为主轴的三次改革;将促使中国工业经济不断自求变革的内在诱因总结为“80年代混合双轨制下的经营僵化、90年代买方市场下的经营亏损、2000年以后市场失灵下的经营粗放”带来的三次制度困境;对困境的冲破,先后经历了管理变革、制度变革、产权变革、观念变革的四次大洗礼。管理变革的目的是解决企业与政府的委托经营问题,以获得X效率、组织效率;制度变革的目的是解决企业与市场的进入问题,以获得竞争效率、配置效率;产权变革的目的是解决企业与资本的归属问题,以获得产权效率;观念变革的目的是解决企业与发展道路的选择问题,以贯彻落实科学发展观,转变增长方式,全面提高经济运行效率。归根结底,制度变革对中国工业经济效率的影响最为显著也最为深刻。
5、拓展了中国工业经济运行效率的对策研究
除了对传统观点进行系统性总结、归纳和进一步提炼之外,还在两个方面做了最新的拓展。一是攀登“二次微笑曲线”制高点,提高产业附加值率。由于现代产业的发展已经从以硬投入为主转向以软投入为主,并加速从实体经济向虚拟经济转型,全球价值链正在重新分化裂变。为此,本文提出了“二次微笑曲线”的全新概念。指出中国工业要提高经济运行效率,必须打破仅仅停留在工业领域内思考工业经济运行的旧观念,要跳出工业视野,从产业进化、产业融合的战略高度为工业经济寻找新的效率源泉。二是实施产业“蓝海战略”,催生范围效率。随着市场环境和消费需求的转变,中国传统工业产业将逐渐步入寿命周期的尾声,运行效率低下、收益递减。对这些产业,应及时实施“蓝海战略”,利用TRIZ理论预测产业未来发展趋势,超越现有需求的“范围边界”,开辟出新的利润“蓝海”和效率“蓝海”。产业“蓝海战略”为传统产业获取经济运行效率提供了一种新的思路。
Industry is a leading factor of national economy, and industrialization is the core and foundation of economic modernization. The level of the industrial economy development and operational efficiency determines the one of other departments and of even the whole national economy. Improving operational efficiency of the industrial economy is not only the urgent need to change growth way for industrial economy, but also the key point that big industrial country marches toward powerful industrial country.
Nowadays, China is at the middle period of industrialization, which is a market competition course orientated to highest efficiency. Efficiency analysis has become an important tool of seeking source of China’s industrial economic growth, and become main method of appraising its operational quality. At present, improving operational efficiency is one of the front subjects of China’s industrial economic management.
Up until now, there are lots of researches on operational efficiency of China’s industrial economy from different angles, but has not made a common conclusion yet. It is still not deep enough to know its inherent law, and not clear enough to recognite its influence factors. So, this dissertation aims at remedying the deficiency of the existing literature from several aspects described above. By use of DEA and Malmquist index, this dissertation comprehensively estimate and research the operational efficiency of China’s industrial economy from 1980 to 2006, in order to explore the change law and fluctuating trend of China’s industrial economic operational efficiency, recognite its the main influence factors, put forward suggestion and policy to improve and promote the operational efficiency of China’s industrial economy, thus can offer decision basis for China to make the correct development strategy of industrial economy. Summarily, the main contents of this dissertation are as follows:
Chapter 1 has explained the research background, purpose and meaning, current research situation, content structure, research approach, technological route,etc., which offered a superclass frame for all research.
Chapter 2 has mainly defined concept of efficiency, explored deep into its intension, discussed overall its judgement standards, summarized its sources, introduced and compared its estimating methods used commonly. These established the theoretical foundation for the whole research.
Chapter 3 has combed the current situation and tendency in operational efficiency research of China’s industrial economy, compared and summaried its researches from different aspects and visual angle, especially pointed out the existing dispute, difference and deficiency which need to be improved, therefore found out the breakthrough point of research for the dissertation.
Chapter 4 has detailedly reviewed the history of China’s industrial economic development, dissected its reform course, summarized its achievements, analyzed its essential operation features, probed into its existing problems emphatically, and demonstrated the necessity and urgency of China’s industry to change growth way and improve operational efficiency by detailed data, fact and theory.
Chapter 5 has calculated the total efficiency of China’s industrial economy during 1980-2006 from the static angle with non-parameter method of DEA, and decomposed it from the dynamic angle by malmquist index method, according to different classification criterias such as regional characteristic, industrial characteristic, property right characteristic, structure or scale characteristic, in order to dissect its change law completely.
As a whole, the average efficiency of China’s industrial economy is 0.889 among 27 years, which indicates China’s industrial economy has been non-DEA effective since 1980, and its efficiency level is still not high.
Chapter 6 has emphatically analyzed the influence of openization, marketization, privatization, scale, R&D input, and informationization upon operational efficiency of China’s industrial economy. It established an extended C-D function which includes double produce, on this basis deduced out the econometrics model to analyze influence factors of China’s industrial economic efficiency. With cointegration test, we can find the fluctuation of TFP has a long time balance relation with its influence factors. Through setting up ECM model, we can find the ecm has powerful opposite adjustment function while the fluctuation of TFP is deviated from long time balance. In short time fluctuation, openization, marketization, privatization, R&D input of large and medium-sized industrial enterprises, and informationization have positive facilitation to efficiency of China’s industrial economy, but scale and human capital demonstrate negative blocking function. Comparatively speaking, system reform and institution innovation, which centred upon openization, marketization and privatization, have most prominent influence on efficiency of China’s industrial economy.
Based on principle of modern economics and historical law and experience of industrial economic development, as well as the real national conditions of China’s industrial economic development, chapter 7 has mainly summaried and refined 11 policy points as countermeasures to improve the operational efficiency of China’s industrial economy at present, i.e., promote technological progress to improve TFP; optimize industrial structure to promote structural efficiency; reduce energy consumption to improve energy efficiency; develop recycle economy to improve input-output efficiency; climb upper“two times smiling curve”to improve added value; implement“blue sea strategy”to get scope efficiency; implement informationization strategy to get external efficiency; implement traffic development strategy to improve logistics efficiency; develop industrial cluster to improve organization efficiency; deepen SOE reform to stimulate institutional efficiency; deepen price reform to improve resource distribution efficiency.
The main innovations of this dissertation embody in the following aspects:
1. It has developed the knowledge of efficiency source
The dissertation has summarized 12 different efficiency sources, i.e., scale efficiency, scope efficiency, learning efficiency, technological efficiency, distribution efficiency, competition efficiency, organization efficiency, institutional efficiency, X efficiency, logistics efficiency, trade efficiency and external efficiency. It point clearly out externality which exists in modern network-economy can produce economic efficiency by making the marginal cost of production activity to decrease and marginal return to increase at the same time. This view has opened up the new space for people to realize the efficiency source.
2. It has improved calculation and decomposition of operational efficiency of China’s industrial economy
This dissertation takes all SOEs and non- SOEs above scale as representative for China’s industrial economy, takes time windows of 1980-2006 as the space-time localization, and calculates the total efficiency of China’s industrial economy in 1980-2006 from the static angle with non-parameter method of DEA, and decomposes it from the dynamic angle by malmquist index method. No matter in the time range of study, or the visual angle involved in research, this dissertation has given further improvement to a great extent.
3. It has expanded the structural form of traditional C-D production function
This dissertation has established a new C-D production function by choosing variable again: First, expand output by increasing profit variable to prevent one-sidedness of traditional modeling with single variable; Second, decompose the technological constant into some non-entity elements such as institution, technology, information, policy, human capital,etc., therefore further deduced out the econometrics model to analyze influence factors of China’s industrial economic efficiency.
4. It has deepened the institutional analysis of China’s industrial economic operational efficiency.
This dissertation summarized China’s institutional innovation after the reform and open as three system reforms which centred upon openization, marketization and privatization, generalized the inherent reasons for China’s industrial economic to pursue innovation by itself as three times of institutional dilemma, i.e., management rigidity under the dual track system in 1980s, operation loss under buyer’s market in 1990s, operation extensiveness under market failure after 2000 year. To break through these predicaments, China’s industrial economy has sequentially gone through management, institution, property right, and idea innovation. The purpose of management innovation is to improve the delegation management of enterprise for government, institution innovation is to solve the market entry of enterprise, property right innovation is to solve the capital ownership problem of enterprise, and idea innovation is to solve the choice problem in development path of enterprises.
5. It has expanded the countermeasure research of operational efficiency of China’s industrial economy
Besides summaring, generalizing, and further refining the traditional opinions, this dissertation has also done the newest expansion in two aspects. First, put forward the brand-new concept of“two times smiling curve”, point out that Chinese industry must break the old idea and jump out the industrial field to research industrial economy, looks for new efficiency source from the strategic height of industrial evolution and merger. Second, this dissertation think China’s industry should implement“blue sea strategy”in order to get scope efficiency, and predict industry’s future development trend by TRIZ theory, stride over the border of the existing demand, pioneer the new“blue sea”of profit and efficiency. This offers a kind of new thinking way for traditional industry to obtain economic operational efficiency.
引文
①王一鸣:转变经济增长方式与体制创新,载《经济与管理研究》,2007年08期
②左小蕾:全要素生产率促中国经济发展,载《华人世界》,2007(6)
③中国社会科学院:能源对经济增长的影响,载《中国能源发展报告》,社会科学文献出版社,2006年
④刘国光:在科学发展观的指引下走新型工业化的道路——《论新型工业化道路》序言,国研网,2005-09-28
⑤刘树成:努力实现经济又好又快发展,载《人民日报》,2007年4月11日第8版
⑥宋斌斌:创新引导中国工业经济在负重中前行,载《中国工业报》,2008年2月27日
⑦陈佳贵、黄群慧等:《中国工业化进程报告——1995～2005年中国省域工业化水平评价与研究》,社会科学文献出版社,2007年7月
⑨刘群生,章迪诚:国有企业改革30年回顾,载《中国信息报》,2008年6月23日
12金碚:中国制造业国际竞争力的现状与问题,《中国企业竞争力报告2007:盈利能力与竞争力》,社会科学文献出版社,2007年11月,P268
13林毅夫、蔡昉、李周:《中国的奇迹:发展战略与经济改革(增订版)》,三联书店、上海人民出版社,1999,第2-3页。
16参见国务院发展研究中心和中国企业评价协会研究报告:《世界500强:中国企业500强的差距与对策》
17吴月越:产业集聚:东北老工业基地的困境与出路,《当代经济研究》,2007年第1期
18李晓华:中国工业在国际竞争中的地位,《中国企业竞争力报告2007:盈利能力与竞争力》,社会科学文献出版社,2007年11月,P248-267
19严先溥:能源供给约束对经济增长构成持续挑战,载《上海证券报》,2005-4-12
35郭克莎:技术密集型产业面临的挑战与对策,载《经济日报》,2002.1.14
36汪海波:改革开放是30年经济发展的根本动力,载《中国经济时报》,2008-07-24
37常修泽、唐海滨:民营经济发展总体情况、特点和存在问题,载中国(海南)改革研究院《中国改革评估报告》,2007
39高辉清:建立和完善支持节能减排技术开发的有效机制,中国网china.com.cn,2008-02
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②左小蕾:全要素生产率促中国经济发展,载《华人世界》,2007(6)
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⑤刘树成:努力实现经济又好又快发展,载《人民日报》,2007年4月11日第8版
⑥宋斌斌:创新引导中国工业经济在负重中前行,载《中国工业报》,2008年2月27日
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⑨刘群生,章迪诚:国有企业改革30年回顾,载《中国信息报》,2008年6月23日
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18李晓华:中国工业在国际竞争中的地位,《中国企业竞争力报告2007:盈利能力与竞争力》,社会科学文献出版社,2007年11月,P248-267
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35郭克莎:技术密集型产业面临的挑战与对策,载《经济日报》,2002.1.14
36汪海波:改革开放是30年经济发展的根本动力,载《中国经济时报》,2008-07-24
37常修泽、唐海滨:民营经济发展总体情况、特点和存在问题,载中国(海南)改革研究院《中国改革评估报告》,2007
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