婚姻推迟与性别比上升的经济分析
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摘要
马尔萨斯以来,关于人口与经济的关系,经济学者已经讨论了几个世纪。经济学关注了人口从出生、成长到死亡等各阶段的经济影响。在以上各阶段中,婚姻发挥了极其重要的作用。然而,他们对婚姻的研究进程,未能及时跟上社会经济发展的步伐。既有文献对婚姻推迟现象产生和出生性别比上升的经济原因及其经济影响分析不足。20世纪90年代以来,我国婚姻呈现新特征——婚姻推迟和出生性别比上升。
本文第一部分将从搜寻匹配视角,探讨婚姻推迟原因和出生性别结构平衡的经济学条件；第二部分将探讨婚姻推迟和性别比上升对储蓄和增长的影响。它们既相互独立,又具有顺承的联系。从经济学角度看,婚姻推迟可以看作单身男女在婚姻市场相互搜寻匹配过程的受阻。进一步看,生育可以视为他们在婚姻市场搜寻匹配结果的延续。生育显示强烈的“男孩偏好”,导致性别比居高不下。本文基本结论为：性别比上升推迟了男性婚姻,而收入差距扩大推迟了女性婚姻；男女生产力差异导致出生性别比上升；性别比上升,既提高家庭储蓄率,也促进经济增长；男女婚姻推迟,一方面提高中国居民储蓄率,另一方面不利于经济增长。因而,研究婚姻推迟和出生性别比等问题具有经济学意义。
本文第一部分分析婚姻推迟原因和性别结构平衡条件。关于婚姻推迟问题,在假设男女同质情况下,性别比上升将提高男性搜寻成本、降低搜寻收益,从而使男性进入婚姻过程受阻,但提前女性婚姻。在男性同质而女性异质情况下,女性差距扩大,将提高女性搜寻成本,并降低女性搜寻收益,从而阻碍女性进入婚姻进程,最终导致女性未婚人口比例上升,而男性未婚人口比例下降；在男性异质而女性同质情况下,男性差距扩大,将提高女性搜寻成本,并降低女性搜寻收益,延缓女性步入婚姻进程,从而提高女性未婚人口比例,但降低男性未婚人口比例。使用1995—2009年省级数据,验证模型理论结论及其引申含义——性别比与男性未婚人口比例显著正相关,但与女性未婚人口比例显著负相关；收入差距与女性未婚人口比例显著正相关,但与男性未婚人口比例显著负相关。
随后,本文分析出生性别结构趋于均衡的条件。从经济学角度看,婚姻生男或不生、生女或不生等四种情况,可以视为男女在婚姻市场搜寻匹配结果的延续。生男生女收益差异和男女生产力回报差异,是性别结构失衡的关键原因。在家庭生男个体收益等于家庭生男对婚姻市场其他个体影响时,性别结构均衡条件在于,生男生女净收益之比与男女生产力回报之比相等。该结论可以引申为性别比随着女性经济回报上升而下降、随着房价上升而下降。运用中国1995—2009年省级面板数据,本文发现女性高等教育普及范围扩大和房价上升是促使性别比下降的重要因素。女性高等教育普及范围和房价均与性别比显著负相关。
在对以上问题原因进行经济学分析之后,本文第二部分探讨了婚姻推迟和性别比上升对家庭消费——储蓄行为和经济增长的影响。“为结婚而储蓄”意味着婚姻推迟提高家庭储蓄率。同时,婚姻推迟使婚姻收益推迟实现甚至难以实现,因而,它对经济增长具有负面影响。通过1995-2010年省级面板回归发现,婚姻推迟对居民储蓄率具有显著的正向影响,它可以解释居民储蓄率上升的70%左右；0-4岁性别比对居民储蓄率具有显著的正影响；未婚人口比例上升对经济增长具有显著为负的影响,这表明婚姻推迟不利于经济增长；而0-4岁性别比对经济增长具有显著的正向影响,这表明性别比上升在客观上对经济增长具有正效应。因而,婚姻推迟和性别结构失衡是影响消费—储蓄行为和经济增长变动的重要因素。
根据全文第二部分对婚姻推迟和性别比上升的储蓄和增长效应分析,为合理安排家庭的消费—储蓄行为和推动经济增长,我们需要减弱婚姻推迟趋势和平衡性别比。根据全文第一部分对婚姻推迟和性别比上升原因的经济分析,政府应该调整社会经济政策,引导出生性别比恢复自然状态,并缩小收入差距,进而减弱婚姻推迟趋势；政府需要提高女性生产力及其回报,使生男生女的收益差异趋于缩小,进而使出生性别结构趋于平
Economists have discussed the relations between the population and economy for a few of centuries since Thomas Robert. The economics focus on the effects of each stage of life from birth, growth to death on the economy. However, their study on marriage that has a vital influence on the stages above fails to keep up with the pace of social economy. The existing literatures have not given enough focus on the causes led to delay in marriage and the rising ratios and their effects on economy. Chinese marriage has shown new features——delays in marriage and rising sex ratio at birth since the nineteen ninties.
The causes of delays in marriage and the rising ratios at birth will be studied in a view of economic point in the first section of this dissertation, then their economic impact on saving rates and growth will be studied in the second section of this dissertation. They are both independent and interrelated. From the point of view of economics, the delays are the hindered process of searching&matching for single men and women in the marriage market. Further, fertility can be seen as a continuation of the matching results of them in the market. It shows a strong "male preference", which resulted in the high ratio. The basic conclusion is that the rising ratios have delayed male marriage while the expanding income gaps have delayed female marriage. The productivity differences between men and women resulted in the high ratio, which makes the saving rates rise and promotes the growth. The delays increase the rates, but decrease the growth. Therefore, the both questions are very important.
The causes of the delays and the condition of the balanced sex ratio will be examined in the first section. On delays in marriage. The rising sex ratio at birth will increase search costs of man and reduce their yield of searching, which will make the process of entering marriage for men blocked but promoted for women into marriage in the case of homogeneous men and homogeneous women. An increase in average female gap leads to a corresponding decline in the male proportion but an increase in the female proportion through increasing searching cost but decreasing their yield of searching for women in the case of heterogeneous women but homogeneous men; The model indicates that an increase in average male gap leads to a corresponding rise in the proportion of the population of female unmarried but a decline in the proportion of the population of male unmarried through increasing searching cost but decreasing their yield of searching for women in the case of heterogeneous men but homogeneous women. The simultaneous equation regressions with the data of province-level statistics from1995to2009shows that the rising ratio is a reason of delay in marriage for men and the expanding average income gap is a main reason for the increasing female proportion. The rising ratio is significantly in positive correlation with the male proportion but negatively correlated with the female proportion.Income gap are also significantly in positive correlation with the females proportion but negatively correlated with the male proportion.
Then, I analyzed the conditions when the sex structure tends to equilibrium. From the perspective of economics, giving birth to a male or not and giving birth to a daughter or not in marriages, which considered to be a result continuation where men and women searched and matched in the marriage market. Income difference that the family gives birth to a boy or a girl and wage difference that male or female productivity, are the key causes that lead to gender structure imbalance. The condition of the structure to balance is that the ratio between the income of male and female is equal to the ratio between their wage of male and female. This can be extended to, the sex ratio will decline with the rise of female economic returns and with the rise of house price. Using1995-2009chinese provincial panel data, we find that female higher education popularization and house price are very important factors in decreasing the ratio. The both factors are both significantly negative correlation with the ratio.
Based on the above analysis, the second section of the dissertation focus on what effect does the delay and the rising have on the savings and growth. Saving for marriage means the delays increase the rate. The delay has a negative effect on the growth because of the deferred gains from delayed marriage. Using Chinese provincial panel data from1995to2010, it indicates that the delay has a significantly positive effect on savings, which could explain70%of the rise of the saving; The0to4years old sex ratio also has a significantly positive effect on savings; The rising of the proportion exerts a negative effect on the growth, which means the delay have an adverse effect on the growth, while the sex ratio have a significantly positive effect on the growth, which means the rising ratio has a positive effect on the growth. The delay and the rising ratio are very important factors for the savings and the growth.
According to the second section about the economic impact of the delay and the rising ratio, we should slow down the trend of the delay and balance the ratio for arrangement of the consumption and savings and promoting the growth. According to the first section about examining the reason of the delay and the rising ratio, the government should adjust the social economic policy to reduce the income gap and guide the ratio at birth to a natural state for coping with the problem of delays in marriage. The government should pay more attention to enhancing the female productivity and economic returns, which makes the income gap between men and women narrow, to guide the ratio tends to balance.
本文第一部分将从搜寻匹配视角,探讨婚姻推迟原因和出生性别结构平衡的经济学条件；第二部分将探讨婚姻推迟和性别比上升对储蓄和增长的影响。它们既相互独立,又具有顺承的联系。从经济学角度看,婚姻推迟可以看作单身男女在婚姻市场相互搜寻匹配过程的受阻。进一步看,生育可以视为他们在婚姻市场搜寻匹配结果的延续。生育显示强烈的“男孩偏好”,导致性别比居高不下。本文基本结论为：性别比上升推迟了男性婚姻,而收入差距扩大推迟了女性婚姻；男女生产力差异导致出生性别比上升；性别比上升,既提高家庭储蓄率,也促进经济增长；男女婚姻推迟,一方面提高中国居民储蓄率,另一方面不利于经济增长。因而,研究婚姻推迟和出生性别比等问题具有经济学意义。
本文第一部分分析婚姻推迟原因和性别结构平衡条件。关于婚姻推迟问题,在假设男女同质情况下,性别比上升将提高男性搜寻成本、降低搜寻收益,从而使男性进入婚姻过程受阻,但提前女性婚姻。在男性同质而女性异质情况下,女性差距扩大,将提高女性搜寻成本,并降低女性搜寻收益,从而阻碍女性进入婚姻进程,最终导致女性未婚人口比例上升,而男性未婚人口比例下降；在男性异质而女性同质情况下,男性差距扩大,将提高女性搜寻成本,并降低女性搜寻收益,延缓女性步入婚姻进程,从而提高女性未婚人口比例,但降低男性未婚人口比例。使用1995—2009年省级数据,验证模型理论结论及其引申含义——性别比与男性未婚人口比例显著正相关,但与女性未婚人口比例显著负相关；收入差距与女性未婚人口比例显著正相关,但与男性未婚人口比例显著负相关。
随后,本文分析出生性别结构趋于均衡的条件。从经济学角度看,婚姻生男或不生、生女或不生等四种情况,可以视为男女在婚姻市场搜寻匹配结果的延续。生男生女收益差异和男女生产力回报差异,是性别结构失衡的关键原因。在家庭生男个体收益等于家庭生男对婚姻市场其他个体影响时,性别结构均衡条件在于,生男生女净收益之比与男女生产力回报之比相等。该结论可以引申为性别比随着女性经济回报上升而下降、随着房价上升而下降。运用中国1995—2009年省级面板数据,本文发现女性高等教育普及范围扩大和房价上升是促使性别比下降的重要因素。女性高等教育普及范围和房价均与性别比显著负相关。
在对以上问题原因进行经济学分析之后,本文第二部分探讨了婚姻推迟和性别比上升对家庭消费——储蓄行为和经济增长的影响。“为结婚而储蓄”意味着婚姻推迟提高家庭储蓄率。同时,婚姻推迟使婚姻收益推迟实现甚至难以实现,因而,它对经济增长具有负面影响。通过1995-2010年省级面板回归发现,婚姻推迟对居民储蓄率具有显著的正向影响,它可以解释居民储蓄率上升的70%左右；0-4岁性别比对居民储蓄率具有显著的正影响；未婚人口比例上升对经济增长具有显著为负的影响,这表明婚姻推迟不利于经济增长；而0-4岁性别比对经济增长具有显著的正向影响,这表明性别比上升在客观上对经济增长具有正效应。因而,婚姻推迟和性别结构失衡是影响消费—储蓄行为和经济增长变动的重要因素。
根据全文第二部分对婚姻推迟和性别比上升的储蓄和增长效应分析,为合理安排家庭的消费—储蓄行为和推动经济增长,我们需要减弱婚姻推迟趋势和平衡性别比。根据全文第一部分对婚姻推迟和性别比上升原因的经济分析,政府应该调整社会经济政策,引导出生性别比恢复自然状态,并缩小收入差距,进而减弱婚姻推迟趋势；政府需要提高女性生产力及其回报,使生男生女的收益差异趋于缩小,进而使出生性别结构趋于平
Economists have discussed the relations between the population and economy for a few of centuries since Thomas Robert. The economics focus on the effects of each stage of life from birth, growth to death on the economy. However, their study on marriage that has a vital influence on the stages above fails to keep up with the pace of social economy. The existing literatures have not given enough focus on the causes led to delay in marriage and the rising ratios and their effects on economy. Chinese marriage has shown new features——delays in marriage and rising sex ratio at birth since the nineteen ninties.
The causes of delays in marriage and the rising ratios at birth will be studied in a view of economic point in the first section of this dissertation, then their economic impact on saving rates and growth will be studied in the second section of this dissertation. They are both independent and interrelated. From the point of view of economics, the delays are the hindered process of searching&matching for single men and women in the marriage market. Further, fertility can be seen as a continuation of the matching results of them in the market. It shows a strong "male preference", which resulted in the high ratio. The basic conclusion is that the rising ratios have delayed male marriage while the expanding income gaps have delayed female marriage. The productivity differences between men and women resulted in the high ratio, which makes the saving rates rise and promotes the growth. The delays increase the rates, but decrease the growth. Therefore, the both questions are very important.
The causes of the delays and the condition of the balanced sex ratio will be examined in the first section. On delays in marriage. The rising sex ratio at birth will increase search costs of man and reduce their yield of searching, which will make the process of entering marriage for men blocked but promoted for women into marriage in the case of homogeneous men and homogeneous women. An increase in average female gap leads to a corresponding decline in the male proportion but an increase in the female proportion through increasing searching cost but decreasing their yield of searching for women in the case of heterogeneous women but homogeneous men; The model indicates that an increase in average male gap leads to a corresponding rise in the proportion of the population of female unmarried but a decline in the proportion of the population of male unmarried through increasing searching cost but decreasing their yield of searching for women in the case of heterogeneous men but homogeneous women. The simultaneous equation regressions with the data of province-level statistics from1995to2009shows that the rising ratio is a reason of delay in marriage for men and the expanding average income gap is a main reason for the increasing female proportion. The rising ratio is significantly in positive correlation with the male proportion but negatively correlated with the female proportion.Income gap are also significantly in positive correlation with the females proportion but negatively correlated with the male proportion.
Then, I analyzed the conditions when the sex structure tends to equilibrium. From the perspective of economics, giving birth to a male or not and giving birth to a daughter or not in marriages, which considered to be a result continuation where men and women searched and matched in the marriage market. Income difference that the family gives birth to a boy or a girl and wage difference that male or female productivity, are the key causes that lead to gender structure imbalance. The condition of the structure to balance is that the ratio between the income of male and female is equal to the ratio between their wage of male and female. This can be extended to, the sex ratio will decline with the rise of female economic returns and with the rise of house price. Using1995-2009chinese provincial panel data, we find that female higher education popularization and house price are very important factors in decreasing the ratio. The both factors are both significantly negative correlation with the ratio.
Based on the above analysis, the second section of the dissertation focus on what effect does the delay and the rising have on the savings and growth. Saving for marriage means the delays increase the rate. The delay has a negative effect on the growth because of the deferred gains from delayed marriage. Using Chinese provincial panel data from1995to2010, it indicates that the delay has a significantly positive effect on savings, which could explain70%of the rise of the saving; The0to4years old sex ratio also has a significantly positive effect on savings; The rising of the proportion exerts a negative effect on the growth, which means the delay have an adverse effect on the growth, while the sex ratio have a significantly positive effect on the growth, which means the rising ratio has a positive effect on the growth. The delay and the rising ratio are very important factors for the savings and the growth.
According to the second section about the economic impact of the delay and the rising ratio, we should slow down the trend of the delay and balance the ratio for arrangement of the consumption and savings and promoting the growth. According to the first section about examining the reason of the delay and the rising ratio, the government should adjust the social economic policy to reduce the income gap and guide the ratio at birth to a natural state for coping with the problem of delays in marriage. The government should pay more attention to enhancing the female productivity and economic returns, which makes the income gap between men and women narrow, to guide the ratio tends to balance.
引文
① 引自刘慧君、李树茁.出生性别比下降的路径选择与有效机制[J].人口与经济。
① 引自于江涛,《收入差距推迟婚姻吗?》,《经济评论》2013年3月。
① 关于Burgess and Zhuang (2002)、Wooj in and Gupta (2007)、顾宝昌等(1996)、Gupta、Jiang and Li (2003)和Clark (2000)的观点引自于刘慧君,李树茁.出生性别比下降的路径选择与有效机制[J].人口与经济,2011,(4)：1-9；杨菊华.出生人口性别比与和谐社会建设：一个定性和定量分析[J].人口学刊,2008,(1)：19-24.
① 引自沈新风.内生家庭谈判力与婚姻匹配[JJ.经济学季刊,2011,(4)：1235-1250.
① 见论文Shangjin Wei and Xiaobo Zhang,2011, "The Competitive Saving Motive:Evidence fron Rising Sex Ratios and Savings Rates in China",Journal of Politcal Economy,119(3),511-564.第518页。
② 同上,见第554页。
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① 引自于江涛,《收入差距推迟婚姻吗?》,《经济评论》2013年3月。
① 关于Burgess and Zhuang (2002)、Wooj in and Gupta (2007)、顾宝昌等(1996)、Gupta、Jiang and Li (2003)和Clark (2000)的观点引自于刘慧君,李树茁.出生性别比下降的路径选择与有效机制[J].人口与经济,2011,(4)：1-9；杨菊华.出生人口性别比与和谐社会建设：一个定性和定量分析[J].人口学刊,2008,(1)：19-24.
① 引自沈新风.内生家庭谈判力与婚姻匹配[JJ.经济学季刊,2011,(4)：1235-1250.
① 见论文Shangjin Wei and Xiaobo Zhang,2011, "The Competitive Saving Motive:Evidence fron Rising Sex Ratios and Savings Rates in China",Journal of Politcal Economy,119(3),511-564.第518页。
② 同上,见第554页。
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