我国北方草原区牧户脆弱性评价
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摘要
中国北方天然草原面积约3.13亿hm2,占全国天然草原面积的79.7%,起着维护国家和区域安全的重要生态屏障作用。牧户是草原区最基本的生产和生活单元。近些年来,在全球气候变暖的诱发下,我国北方温带草原区灾害频发,生活在当地的牧民生计首当其冲的受到生态环境环境恶化的不利影响。与此同时,随着我国广大草原牧区“双权一制”这一土地产权制度的调整,促使了游牧向定居定牧生产方式的转变,导致草原畜牧业发展的重心的转移。同时,随着市场经济的逐步深入了,市场经济因素开始主导我国草原区畜牧业生产,社会经济因子的变革瓦解了牧区原有的社会运行机制,牧户生计受到社会经济等不稳定因素冲击的风险增强。自然环境变率的增强和社会经济风险因素的加大,随着给草原地区经济社会发展和生活在当地的牧民可持续能力建设带来严重的不利影响,脆弱性成为了我国北方草原区牧户可持续发展能力构建的一个重要分析视角。
本研究在可持续生计的视角下,通过梳理国内外脆弱性研究概况、脆弱性概念拓展、评价框架和评价方法适应范围,结合本研究的目的。在厘清脆弱性概念、评价框架和方法的基础上,选用Delphi专家咨询法构建了我国北方草原区牧户脆弱性评价指标体系。通过组建征询专家库,初拟指标体系,发放问卷征询专家意见,计算专家积极系数、权威程度、专家意见协调程度等流程。最终确立了包含人力资本,自然资本,物质资本,金融资本和社会资本五个目标层指标；包含家庭整体劳动能力,是否有成年男性劳动力,家庭成员的受教育程度,人均承包草场生产力,均使用草场生产力,住房情况,棚圈面积,家庭固定资产,家畜资源,牧户家庭现金总收入,能否得到无偿金融援助,政策信息来源渠道,市场信息来源渠道,参加社会保障情况,参加社会组织情况共十五个指标层指标的牧户脆弱性评价指标体系。以我国荒漠草原区的典型地区内蒙古锡林郭勒盟的苏尼特右旗、苏尼特左旗和四子王旗为研究样区进行草原区牧户脆弱性案例研究。研究结果表明：
1.通过两轮专家意见的征询,专家积极参与评价指标体系的构建、专家意见权威程度高、专家意见的协调系数通过统计学检验,p值<0.001,由此可知,运用该方法构建由5个目标层指标15个指标层指标的我国北方草原区牧户脆弱性评价指标体系科学合理,可信度高。
2.研究区牧户家庭脆弱性指标值集中分布在0.60-0.79之间,占总数的68.25%,可见,脆弱性指数值的分布呈现中间聚集、两边偏少的分布状况。进一步通过核密度估计法、脆弱性指数正态分布的QQ值和夏皮罗-威尔克法检验,结果表明,研究区牧户家庭脆弱性指标值呈正态分布。
3.运用聚类分析法对研究区牧户脆弱性进分为高低两类,通过了方差检验,F值极显著,表明将研究区牧户依据脆弱性指数的高低分为两类具有合理性。可以看出,四子王旗牧户的高脆弱性比例占调研总牧户数的86.1%高于苏尼特右旗、苏尼特左旗的。从脆弱性发生率来看,研究区牧户脆弱性按严重程度排序依次为：四子王旗>苏尼特右旗>苏尼特左旗。总体来看,研究区高脆弱性牧户比例为66.91%,研究区牧户脆弱性处于较高的水平,牧户抵御和缓解不利影响的能力较弱。
4.通过分析研究区牧户脆弱性的人口统计特征和贫困特征发现：在面临不利风险冲击时,充足的人力资本资源能有效地平滑牧户脆弱性波动；具有消费贫困特征的家庭较之收入贫困的家庭更具有陷入脆弱的可能。
5.通过对研究区牧户脆弱性指数进行方差分析发现；研究区个旗县牧户脆弱性指数之间存在明显的区域差异。四子王旗牧户脆弱性总指数最大,苏尼特右旗次之,苏尼特左旗最低,此结果与前文通过牧户高脆弱性发生率对三旗县牧户脆弱性进行的评价结果相一致。各类型资本脆弱性指数存在显著差异。
China northern natural grassland area of about313million hm2, accounts for the natural grassland area of79.7%, plays a maintenance countries and regions of the importance of safety ecological barrier function. MuHu is the most basic province of production and life unit. In recent years, the influence of the global warming will be in north China province temperate nature disasters, living in the local nomads living by the ecological environment of the adverse impact of the deterioration of the environment. At the same time, as China's vast prairie areas\"double right a system\"the land property rights system adjustment, prompted the nomadic to settle for animal husbandry production transitions, lead to the development of animal husbandry grassland the centre of the transfer. At the same time, along with the market economy to develop the market, economic factors leading province in China started production of animal husbandry, social economic factors change in pastoral areas of social disintegration of the original operating mechanism, by the social economy, etc MuHu livelihood unstable factors of impact risk increase. The natural environment of the time rate of change of enhancement and the social economic risk factors, the strengthening to grassland area with social and economic development and living in the local nomads sustainable ability construction bring serious adverse effect, become the vulnerability in north China province MuHu sustainable development ability construction of a important analysis perspective.
This study in sustainable livelihood perspectives, by analyzing the vulnerability research situation at home and abroad, vulnerability concept development, evaluation framework and evaluation method of the range of application, and combined with the aim of this study. To clarify the vulnerability in concept, evaluation framework and methods, and on the basis of consulting experts choose Delphi method constructs the province in the north of MuHu vulnerability evaluation index system. By setting up model.it consult, early to index system, a questionnaire consult expert opinion, calculation experts positive coefficient, authority degree, expert advice coordination degree process, etc. Finally established includes human capital, natural capital, physical capital, financial capital and social capital five goal level indicator; Contains family whole labor ability, whether to have adult male labor, family members by the degree of education, and the per capita contracting pasture productivity, all use pasture productivity, housing, area of canopy, family fixed assets, livestock resources, MuHu family cash income, can get free financial aid, policy information sources, market information sources, and to social security situation, attend social organization altogether15index of indicators MuHu vulnerability evaluation index system. In China's Inner Mongolia region of the desert province typical of XiLinGuoLeMeng SuNi YouQi, SuNi ZuoQi and SiZiWangQi, especially as the research sample province area for MuHu vulnerability case studies. The results of the study show that:
1. Through the two rounds of expert opinion consult, experts actively participate in the establishment of the evaluation index system, expert opinion authority degree is high, coordinate coefficient of expert opinion by statistics inspection, p<0.001, value know therefore that by using this method, the construction of five target level of index15index of indicators province in the north of MuHu vulnerability evaluation index system is rational and scientific, and high reliability.
2. The study area MuHu family vulnerability index concentration distribution in0.60-0.79between, or68.25%of the total, visible and vulnerability of the present distribution among the exponent value together, and the distribution of the partial less on both sides. Further through the kernel density estimation, vulnerability index of normal distribution QQ value and Shapiro-will g inspection method, and the results show that the area MuHu family vulnerability index there were normal distribution.
3. Use of cluster analysis to study area is divided into MuHu vulnerability into two types of high and low, through the variance inspection, F value was significant, show that will study area MuHu according to the discretion of the vulnerability index are divided into two classes have rationality. Can see, SiZiWangQi MuHu high vulnerability ratio of the number of total MuHu survey,86.1%higher than SuNi YouQi, SuNi special ZuoQi. Vulnerability to see from the incidence of the study area MuHu vulnerability severity in order is as follows:SiZiWangQi> SuNi YouQi> SuNi ZuoQi, especially. Overall, the study area MuHu high vulnerability is66.91%, the study area MuHu vulnerability in higher level, MuHu resist and alleviate the negative influences of ability are relatively weak.
4. Through the analysis of the study area MuHu vulnerability of demographic characteristics and poverty features found that:in the face of the risk adverse impact, sufficient human capital resources can effectively smooth MuHu vulnerability fluctuation; Has the characteristics of consumption poverty family income more than poor family with into fragile may.
5. Through in the study area MuHu vulnerability index variance analysis found; The study area a flag MuHu county vulnerability index there exist obvious differences between the area. SiZiWangQi MuHu vulnerability is the index of the largest, SuNi YouQi, is the second smallest, and SuNi ZuoQi's lowest, the result with MuHu high vulnerability as through the incidence of three flags county MuHu vulnerability in evaluation results are in agreement. Each type of capital vulnerability index there was significant difference.
本研究在可持续生计的视角下,通过梳理国内外脆弱性研究概况、脆弱性概念拓展、评价框架和评价方法适应范围,结合本研究的目的。在厘清脆弱性概念、评价框架和方法的基础上,选用Delphi专家咨询法构建了我国北方草原区牧户脆弱性评价指标体系。通过组建征询专家库,初拟指标体系,发放问卷征询专家意见,计算专家积极系数、权威程度、专家意见协调程度等流程。最终确立了包含人力资本,自然资本,物质资本,金融资本和社会资本五个目标层指标；包含家庭整体劳动能力,是否有成年男性劳动力,家庭成员的受教育程度,人均承包草场生产力,均使用草场生产力,住房情况,棚圈面积,家庭固定资产,家畜资源,牧户家庭现金总收入,能否得到无偿金融援助,政策信息来源渠道,市场信息来源渠道,参加社会保障情况,参加社会组织情况共十五个指标层指标的牧户脆弱性评价指标体系。以我国荒漠草原区的典型地区内蒙古锡林郭勒盟的苏尼特右旗、苏尼特左旗和四子王旗为研究样区进行草原区牧户脆弱性案例研究。研究结果表明：
1.通过两轮专家意见的征询,专家积极参与评价指标体系的构建、专家意见权威程度高、专家意见的协调系数通过统计学检验,p值<0.001,由此可知,运用该方法构建由5个目标层指标15个指标层指标的我国北方草原区牧户脆弱性评价指标体系科学合理,可信度高。
2.研究区牧户家庭脆弱性指标值集中分布在0.60-0.79之间,占总数的68.25%,可见,脆弱性指数值的分布呈现中间聚集、两边偏少的分布状况。进一步通过核密度估计法、脆弱性指数正态分布的QQ值和夏皮罗-威尔克法检验,结果表明,研究区牧户家庭脆弱性指标值呈正态分布。
3.运用聚类分析法对研究区牧户脆弱性进分为高低两类,通过了方差检验,F值极显著,表明将研究区牧户依据脆弱性指数的高低分为两类具有合理性。可以看出,四子王旗牧户的高脆弱性比例占调研总牧户数的86.1%高于苏尼特右旗、苏尼特左旗的。从脆弱性发生率来看,研究区牧户脆弱性按严重程度排序依次为：四子王旗>苏尼特右旗>苏尼特左旗。总体来看,研究区高脆弱性牧户比例为66.91%,研究区牧户脆弱性处于较高的水平,牧户抵御和缓解不利影响的能力较弱。
4.通过分析研究区牧户脆弱性的人口统计特征和贫困特征发现：在面临不利风险冲击时,充足的人力资本资源能有效地平滑牧户脆弱性波动；具有消费贫困特征的家庭较之收入贫困的家庭更具有陷入脆弱的可能。
5.通过对研究区牧户脆弱性指数进行方差分析发现；研究区个旗县牧户脆弱性指数之间存在明显的区域差异。四子王旗牧户脆弱性总指数最大,苏尼特右旗次之,苏尼特左旗最低,此结果与前文通过牧户高脆弱性发生率对三旗县牧户脆弱性进行的评价结果相一致。各类型资本脆弱性指数存在显著差异。
China northern natural grassland area of about313million hm2, accounts for the natural grassland area of79.7%, plays a maintenance countries and regions of the importance of safety ecological barrier function. MuHu is the most basic province of production and life unit. In recent years, the influence of the global warming will be in north China province temperate nature disasters, living in the local nomads living by the ecological environment of the adverse impact of the deterioration of the environment. At the same time, as China's vast prairie areas\"double right a system\"the land property rights system adjustment, prompted the nomadic to settle for animal husbandry production transitions, lead to the development of animal husbandry grassland the centre of the transfer. At the same time, along with the market economy to develop the market, economic factors leading province in China started production of animal husbandry, social economic factors change in pastoral areas of social disintegration of the original operating mechanism, by the social economy, etc MuHu livelihood unstable factors of impact risk increase. The natural environment of the time rate of change of enhancement and the social economic risk factors, the strengthening to grassland area with social and economic development and living in the local nomads sustainable ability construction bring serious adverse effect, become the vulnerability in north China province MuHu sustainable development ability construction of a important analysis perspective.
This study in sustainable livelihood perspectives, by analyzing the vulnerability research situation at home and abroad, vulnerability concept development, evaluation framework and evaluation method of the range of application, and combined with the aim of this study. To clarify the vulnerability in concept, evaluation framework and methods, and on the basis of consulting experts choose Delphi method constructs the province in the north of MuHu vulnerability evaluation index system. By setting up model.it consult, early to index system, a questionnaire consult expert opinion, calculation experts positive coefficient, authority degree, expert advice coordination degree process, etc. Finally established includes human capital, natural capital, physical capital, financial capital and social capital five goal level indicator; Contains family whole labor ability, whether to have adult male labor, family members by the degree of education, and the per capita contracting pasture productivity, all use pasture productivity, housing, area of canopy, family fixed assets, livestock resources, MuHu family cash income, can get free financial aid, policy information sources, market information sources, and to social security situation, attend social organization altogether15index of indicators MuHu vulnerability evaluation index system. In China's Inner Mongolia region of the desert province typical of XiLinGuoLeMeng SuNi YouQi, SuNi ZuoQi and SiZiWangQi, especially as the research sample province area for MuHu vulnerability case studies. The results of the study show that:
1. Through the two rounds of expert opinion consult, experts actively participate in the establishment of the evaluation index system, expert opinion authority degree is high, coordinate coefficient of expert opinion by statistics inspection, p<0.001, value know therefore that by using this method, the construction of five target level of index15index of indicators province in the north of MuHu vulnerability evaluation index system is rational and scientific, and high reliability.
2. The study area MuHu family vulnerability index concentration distribution in0.60-0.79between, or68.25%of the total, visible and vulnerability of the present distribution among the exponent value together, and the distribution of the partial less on both sides. Further through the kernel density estimation, vulnerability index of normal distribution QQ value and Shapiro-will g inspection method, and the results show that the area MuHu family vulnerability index there were normal distribution.
3. Use of cluster analysis to study area is divided into MuHu vulnerability into two types of high and low, through the variance inspection, F value was significant, show that will study area MuHu according to the discretion of the vulnerability index are divided into two classes have rationality. Can see, SiZiWangQi MuHu high vulnerability ratio of the number of total MuHu survey,86.1%higher than SuNi YouQi, SuNi special ZuoQi. Vulnerability to see from the incidence of the study area MuHu vulnerability severity in order is as follows:SiZiWangQi> SuNi YouQi> SuNi ZuoQi, especially. Overall, the study area MuHu high vulnerability is66.91%, the study area MuHu vulnerability in higher level, MuHu resist and alleviate the negative influences of ability are relatively weak.
4. Through the analysis of the study area MuHu vulnerability of demographic characteristics and poverty features found that:in the face of the risk adverse impact, sufficient human capital resources can effectively smooth MuHu vulnerability fluctuation; Has the characteristics of consumption poverty family income more than poor family with into fragile may.
5. Through in the study area MuHu vulnerability index variance analysis found; The study area a flag MuHu county vulnerability index there exist obvious differences between the area. SiZiWangQi MuHu vulnerability is the index of the largest, SuNi YouQi, is the second smallest, and SuNi ZuoQi's lowest, the result with MuHu high vulnerability as through the incidence of three flags county MuHu vulnerability in evaluation results are in agreement. Each type of capital vulnerability index there was significant difference.
引文
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