国际援助对发展中国家经济增长和腐败的影响
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摘要
国际援助产生于自由资本主义过渡到垄断资本主义之后,二战后,国际社会不约而同地加快向发展中国家和经济不发达国家施以援助的速度。目前,关于国际援助对经济增长是否起到了积极作用的问题,已受到国际经济学界的广泛关注。本文以国际援助对发展中国家经济增长和腐败程度的影响做为研究对象,对这一备受争议的课题进行研究。
首先,本文对国际援助的发端、发展目的、发展现状、援助成效和援助影响等进行了一般性理论介绍;研究了目前对国际援助与经济增长的关系、国际援助与腐败的联系、经济增长和腐败的关系等一些学术观点和学术文献,通过对他们的系统阐述和比较分析,说明了研究国际援助对于经济增长和腐败程度的影响的必要性。
其次,利用上述文献综述中经常提及和使用的变量,本文着重探讨了国际援助对于人均GDP增长的影响,以及腐败与国际援助之间的关系,建立了两个概念模型,并通过对撒哈拉以南非洲、亚洲和拉丁美洲的67个发展中国家或者是经济较为落后国家在1986—2005年20年间的数据进行相关描述与分析,文中所使用的数据均来自于世界银行2008年世界发展指标(World Bank, World Development Indicators 2008),国际国家风险指南(2008)[the International Countries Risk Guid(eICRG),2008],CIA实况报告(2008)(the CIA Factbook,2008),以及Sacha和Warner(1995),Easterly,Rodriguez和Schmidt-Hebbe(l1994),Barro和Lee(2000),Roeder(2001),Marchall和Jaggers(2007)等机构和人员的文献。
再次,本文通过计量经济学中的回归等方法,对上述数据进行处理和分析,应用两个固定效应模型研究,发现援助对于腐败是起着积极作用的,但这并不意味着援助增长必然导致腐败活动的增长;研究认为,有条件的援助对于提高发展中国家政府职能是很有效的,同时能起到减少腐败的作用。
本文的研究有两项发现:一是国际援助对经济发展没有积极作用;二是国际援助对腐败确实有助长作用。最后,本文建议援助国以及受援国应该在国际援助的使用方面更加审慎,以能够更有效率、更有效果地使用国际援助。在策略方面,援助国在施行援助时应当考虑受援国的可信度和责任度、受援国的承诺,更多援助国应当采用有条件的援助政策,并帮助受援国建立民主制度,帮助受援国建设公共机构能力,尽量回避不良政府等,以增强国际援助在发展经济与提高政府执政能力上的影响。
The tradition of giving foreign aid came into exist after the capitalism turned to monopoly from competitive one. The foreign aid giving to developing and less developed countries began to speed up after World War II. It has been broadly concerned in the international economic field whether foreign aid has played a positive role in the economic growth. The thesis studies this subject based on the influence of foreign aid on economic growth and corruption degree in developing countries.
Firstly, the thesis makes a general theoretical introduction to the beginning, purpose and the present status of foreign aid, and the result and effect of aid; studies the current academic views and literatures about the relationship between foreign aid and economic growth, the relationship between foreign aid and corruption, and the relationship between economic growth and corruption; by the detailed study and comparative analysis, states the necessity of studying foreign aid’s influence on economic growth and corruption.
Secondly, based on the variables which are frequently mentioned and used, the thesis examines the effect of foreign aid on GDP pre capita and the relationship between corruption and foreign aid. Using panel data from 67 countries from 1986-2005, the study sets up two concept models. All the data used is from World Development Indicators by World Bank, The International Countries Risk Guide (ICRG) 2008, The CIA Factbook 2008 and literatures from Sacha and Warner (1995), Easterly, Rodriguez and Schmidt-Hebbel (1994), Barro and Lee (2000), Roeder (2001), Marchall and Jaggeres.
Thirdly, through ways like logistic in economictrics, the study makes description and analysis to the data above in two fixed effect models, finds that aid is positively related to corruption, however, that does not necessarily mean that the increment of aid will lead to more corruption activities. The thesis regards conditional aid is effective in improving the quality of governance in developing countries, and meanwhile is positive to decrease the corruption ranking.
There are two conclusions from this study, one is that foreign aid plays no positive role in economic development, and the other is that foreign aid does push corruption forward. Finally, the study suggests that both donor and recipient countries should play a larger role for the aid in order that it may be used efficiently and effectively. There are several major policy implications that the donors and recipients need to consider to make aid more effective in improving economic growth and quality of governance. As to strategies, donors should consider the accountability, responsibility and commitments of recipient countries. More conditional aid policies should be adopted to help recipient countries build democracy and institutional capabilities. Bad governments should be bypassed to improve the influence of foreign aid on economic growth and governance capability of recipient countries.
首先,本文对国际援助的发端、发展目的、发展现状、援助成效和援助影响等进行了一般性理论介绍;研究了目前对国际援助与经济增长的关系、国际援助与腐败的联系、经济增长和腐败的关系等一些学术观点和学术文献,通过对他们的系统阐述和比较分析,说明了研究国际援助对于经济增长和腐败程度的影响的必要性。
其次,利用上述文献综述中经常提及和使用的变量,本文着重探讨了国际援助对于人均GDP增长的影响,以及腐败与国际援助之间的关系,建立了两个概念模型,并通过对撒哈拉以南非洲、亚洲和拉丁美洲的67个发展中国家或者是经济较为落后国家在1986—2005年20年间的数据进行相关描述与分析,文中所使用的数据均来自于世界银行2008年世界发展指标(World Bank, World Development Indicators 2008),国际国家风险指南(2008)[the International Countries Risk Guid(eICRG),2008],CIA实况报告(2008)(the CIA Factbook,2008),以及Sacha和Warner(1995),Easterly,Rodriguez和Schmidt-Hebbe(l1994),Barro和Lee(2000),Roeder(2001),Marchall和Jaggers(2007)等机构和人员的文献。
再次,本文通过计量经济学中的回归等方法,对上述数据进行处理和分析,应用两个固定效应模型研究,发现援助对于腐败是起着积极作用的,但这并不意味着援助增长必然导致腐败活动的增长;研究认为,有条件的援助对于提高发展中国家政府职能是很有效的,同时能起到减少腐败的作用。
本文的研究有两项发现:一是国际援助对经济发展没有积极作用;二是国际援助对腐败确实有助长作用。最后,本文建议援助国以及受援国应该在国际援助的使用方面更加审慎,以能够更有效率、更有效果地使用国际援助。在策略方面,援助国在施行援助时应当考虑受援国的可信度和责任度、受援国的承诺,更多援助国应当采用有条件的援助政策,并帮助受援国建立民主制度,帮助受援国建设公共机构能力,尽量回避不良政府等,以增强国际援助在发展经济与提高政府执政能力上的影响。
The tradition of giving foreign aid came into exist after the capitalism turned to monopoly from competitive one. The foreign aid giving to developing and less developed countries began to speed up after World War II. It has been broadly concerned in the international economic field whether foreign aid has played a positive role in the economic growth. The thesis studies this subject based on the influence of foreign aid on economic growth and corruption degree in developing countries.
Firstly, the thesis makes a general theoretical introduction to the beginning, purpose and the present status of foreign aid, and the result and effect of aid; studies the current academic views and literatures about the relationship between foreign aid and economic growth, the relationship between foreign aid and corruption, and the relationship between economic growth and corruption; by the detailed study and comparative analysis, states the necessity of studying foreign aid’s influence on economic growth and corruption.
Secondly, based on the variables which are frequently mentioned and used, the thesis examines the effect of foreign aid on GDP pre capita and the relationship between corruption and foreign aid. Using panel data from 67 countries from 1986-2005, the study sets up two concept models. All the data used is from World Development Indicators by World Bank, The International Countries Risk Guide (ICRG) 2008, The CIA Factbook 2008 and literatures from Sacha and Warner (1995), Easterly, Rodriguez and Schmidt-Hebbel (1994), Barro and Lee (2000), Roeder (2001), Marchall and Jaggeres.
Thirdly, through ways like logistic in economictrics, the study makes description and analysis to the data above in two fixed effect models, finds that aid is positively related to corruption, however, that does not necessarily mean that the increment of aid will lead to more corruption activities. The thesis regards conditional aid is effective in improving the quality of governance in developing countries, and meanwhile is positive to decrease the corruption ranking.
There are two conclusions from this study, one is that foreign aid plays no positive role in economic development, and the other is that foreign aid does push corruption forward. Finally, the study suggests that both donor and recipient countries should play a larger role for the aid in order that it may be used efficiently and effectively. There are several major policy implications that the donors and recipients need to consider to make aid more effective in improving economic growth and quality of governance. As to strategies, donors should consider the accountability, responsibility and commitments of recipient countries. More conditional aid policies should be adopted to help recipient countries build democracy and institutional capabilities. Bad governments should be bypassed to improve the influence of foreign aid on economic growth and governance capability of recipient countries.
引文
[1]周启元.关于国际经济援助若干理论问题的研究[J].世界经济,1991,(12):9-14.
[2]"Foreign Aid." The Columbia Encyclopedia, Sixth Edition. 2008. Retrieved March 15, 2009, Encyclopedia.com from: http://www.encyclopedia.com/doc/1E1-foreignai.html
[3]杨东升,刘岱.国外经济援助的有效性:基于现代利他视角的研究[J].南方经济,2007,(12):3-11.
[4]Bauer, P.,“Dissent on Development.”Harvard University Press, June, 1976, 1-550.
[5]Sachs, J.,“The End of Poverty.”Penguin Press, December 2005, pp. 1-397.
[6]Easterly, W.,“Can Foreign Aid Buy Growth?”Journal of Economic Perspectives, Summer 2003, 17(3), pp. 23-48.
[7]王孔祥.西方国家的对外援助:理论与实践的分析[J].教学与研究,2004,(11):45-51.
[8]周宝根.官方发展援助新动向及其对我国的影响[J].国际经济合作,2008,(2):18-22.
[9]丁韶彬.官方发展援助的新趋势[J].现代国际关系,2006,(5):24-28.
[10]Center for American Progress(2009),“U.S. Aid to Pakistan by the Numbers”http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2008/08/pakistan_aid_numbers.html
[11]Easterly, W.,“The White Man's Burden: Why the West's Efforts to Aid the Rest Have Done So Much Ill and So Little Good.”Penguin Press HC, March 2006, pp. 1-448.
[12][13]陈婕.对外援政策的国际比较[D].厦门大学,2008,4:16-17、18.
[14]OECD,“Final Official Development Assistance (ODA) data for 2007”, March 2009. http://www.oecd.org/department/0,3355,en_2649_34447_1_1_1_1_1,00.html
[15][16]周宝根.西方对非援助的教训及借鉴意义[J].亚非纵横,2009,(4):50-54.
[17]Kasper, W.,“Make Poverty History: Tackle Corruption.”Independent Studies, Jan 2006, 67
[18][35][51]Brautigam, A. D., and Knack, S.,“Foreign Aid, Institutions, and Governance in Sub-Saharan Africa.”Economic Development and Cultural Change, 2004, 52(2), pp.255-285.
[19]Jon, Q.,“Curbing Corruption in Asia.”Eastern University Press, 2003, pp. 1-241.
[20][37][43][51]Mauro, P.,“Corruption and Growth”The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1995, 110 (3), pp. 681-712.
[21]Gyimah, B.K., and Camacho, S. M.,“Corruption, Growth, and Income Distribution: Are there Regional Differences?”Economics of Governance, 2006, 23(7), pp. 245-269.
[22]Rose-Ackerman, S.,“Corruption and Government: Causes, Consequences, and Reform.”New York: Cambridge University Press, 1999, pp. 1-266.
[23]Voivodas, C.S.,“Exports, Foreign Capital Inflow and Economic Growth.”Journal of International Economics, 1973, 3(4), pp. 337-349.
[24]龚六堂,邹恒甫.财政政策、货币政策与国外经济援助[J].经济研究,2001,(3):29-39.
[25]Boone, P.,“The Impact of Foreign Aid on Savings and Growth.”Working Paper, London School of Economics and Center for Economic Performance, 1994.
[26]Vasquez, I. ,“Official Assistance, Economic Freedom, and Policy Change: Is Foreign Aid Like Champagne?”Cato Journal, Fall 1998, 18(2), pp. 275-286.
[27]Hudson, J., and Mosley, P.,“Aid, Policies and Growth: in Search of Holy Grail?”Journal of International Development, 2001, 13(7), pp. 1023-1038; Islam, N.,“Regime Changes, Economic Policies and the Effects of Aid on Growth.”Ryerson University, Canada, May 2002; Dalgaard, C.J., and Hansen, H.,“On the Empirics of Foreign Aid and Growth.”Economic Journal, 2004, 114 (496), 191-216
[28]Dowling, M., and Hiemenz, U.,“Aid, Savings and Growth in the Asian Region.”Economic Office Report Series 3, 1982, ADB, Manila.
[29]Durbarry, R., Gemmell, N., and Greenaway, D.,“New Evidence on the Impact of Foreign Aid on Economic Growth.”Centre for Research in Economic Development and International Trade, University of Nottingham, No. 98/8.
[30]Burnside, C., and Dollar D.,“Aid, Policies, and Growth.”The American Economic Review; Sep 2000; 90(4), pp. 224-29
[31]Easterly, W.,“The White Man's Burden: Why the West's Efforts to Aid the Rest Have Done So Much Ill and So Little Good.”Penguin Press HC, March 2006, pp. 1-448
[32]Devarjan, S., Dollar, D., and Holmgre, T.,“Aid and Reform in Africa Lesson from Ten Case Studies.”Washington, DC: The World Bank
[33]世界银行发表报告——评价外援的成功与失败[J].领导决策信息,1998,(46):9.
[34]Alesina, A., and Weder, B.,“Do Corrupt Government Receive Less Foreign Aid?”The American Economic Review, Sep 2000, 94(4), 1126-1240
[36]卞纪.美国学者谈非洲的外援和经济结构调整[J].西亚非洲,1997,(5):72-73.
[38]Mo, P.K.,“Corruption and Economic Growth.”Journal of Comparative Economics, 2001, 33(2) pp. 66-79)
[39]Pellegrini, L., and Gerlagh, R.,“Corruption’s Effect on Growth and its Transmission Channels.”KYKLOS, 2004, 57(3), pp. 429-456
[40]Bliss, C., and Di T. R.,“Does Corruption Kill Corruption?”Journal of Political Economy, 1997, 05(5), pp. 1001-1023
[41]Tanzi, V., and Davoodi, H.,“Corruption, Public Investment, and Growth.”IMF Working Paper. 1997, WP/97/130
[42]Wei, S.,“How Taxing is Corruption on International Investors?”Review Economic Statistics, 2000, 82(1), pp. 1-11
[44]Tanzi, V., and Davoodi, H.,“Corruption, Public Investment, and Growth.”IMF Working Paper. 1997, WP/97/130
[45]Verbeek, M.,“A Guide to Modern Econometrics.”Johnson Wiley & Son Inc. Publisher, May 2008, pp.1-472.
[46]Gyimah, B.K., and Camacho, S. M.,“Corruption, Growth, and Income Distribution: Are there Regional Differences?”Economics of Governance, 2006, 23(7), pp. 245-269.
[47]Gyimah-Brempong(2002),Mushfiq us Swaleheen and Stansel(2007)
[48]Sachs, J., and Warner, A., 1995.“Trade Openness Indicators.”http://www.cid.harvard.edu/ciddata/ciddata.html#Larson
[49]Boone, P.,“The Impact of Foreign Aid on Savings and Growth.”Working Paper, London School of Economics and Center for Economic Performance, 1994.
[50]Fischer, S.,“The Role of Macroeconomic Factors in Growth”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 1993, 32(1), pp. 485-512.
[52]Barro, R.,“Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries.”The Quarterly Journal of Economics, May 1991, 106(2), pp. 407-443.
[53]Roeder, G.P., "Ethnolinguistic Fractionalization (ELF) Indices, 1961 and 1985." February 16,2001 http//:weber.ucsd.edu\~proeder\elf.htm
[54]Marshall, M. G., and Jaggers, K.,“Polity VI Project:Political Characteristics and Transitions, 1800-2007.”http://www.systemicpeace.org/polity/polity4.htm
[55]Werlin, H.,“Corruption and Foreign Aid in Africa.”Foreign Policy Research Institute Summer 2005.
[56]Kasper, W.,“Make Poverty History: Tackle Corruption.”Independent Studies, Jan 2006, 67.
[2]"Foreign Aid." The Columbia Encyclopedia, Sixth Edition. 2008. Retrieved March 15, 2009, Encyclopedia.com from: http://www.encyclopedia.com/doc/1E1-foreignai.html
[3]杨东升,刘岱.国外经济援助的有效性:基于现代利他视角的研究[J].南方经济,2007,(12):3-11.
[4]Bauer, P.,“Dissent on Development.”Harvard University Press, June, 1976, 1-550.
[5]Sachs, J.,“The End of Poverty.”Penguin Press, December 2005, pp. 1-397.
[6]Easterly, W.,“Can Foreign Aid Buy Growth?”Journal of Economic Perspectives, Summer 2003, 17(3), pp. 23-48.
[7]王孔祥.西方国家的对外援助:理论与实践的分析[J].教学与研究,2004,(11):45-51.
[8]周宝根.官方发展援助新动向及其对我国的影响[J].国际经济合作,2008,(2):18-22.
[9]丁韶彬.官方发展援助的新趋势[J].现代国际关系,2006,(5):24-28.
[10]Center for American Progress(2009),“U.S. Aid to Pakistan by the Numbers”http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2008/08/pakistan_aid_numbers.html
[11]Easterly, W.,“The White Man's Burden: Why the West's Efforts to Aid the Rest Have Done So Much Ill and So Little Good.”Penguin Press HC, March 2006, pp. 1-448.
[12][13]陈婕.对外援政策的国际比较[D].厦门大学,2008,4:16-17、18.
[14]OECD,“Final Official Development Assistance (ODA) data for 2007”, March 2009. http://www.oecd.org/department/0,3355,en_2649_34447_1_1_1_1_1,00.html
[15][16]周宝根.西方对非援助的教训及借鉴意义[J].亚非纵横,2009,(4):50-54.
[17]Kasper, W.,“Make Poverty History: Tackle Corruption.”Independent Studies, Jan 2006, 67
[18][35][51]Brautigam, A. D., and Knack, S.,“Foreign Aid, Institutions, and Governance in Sub-Saharan Africa.”Economic Development and Cultural Change, 2004, 52(2), pp.255-285.
[19]Jon, Q.,“Curbing Corruption in Asia.”Eastern University Press, 2003, pp. 1-241.
[20][37][43][51]Mauro, P.,“Corruption and Growth”The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1995, 110 (3), pp. 681-712.
[21]Gyimah, B.K., and Camacho, S. M.,“Corruption, Growth, and Income Distribution: Are there Regional Differences?”Economics of Governance, 2006, 23(7), pp. 245-269.
[22]Rose-Ackerman, S.,“Corruption and Government: Causes, Consequences, and Reform.”New York: Cambridge University Press, 1999, pp. 1-266.
[23]Voivodas, C.S.,“Exports, Foreign Capital Inflow and Economic Growth.”Journal of International Economics, 1973, 3(4), pp. 337-349.
[24]龚六堂,邹恒甫.财政政策、货币政策与国外经济援助[J].经济研究,2001,(3):29-39.
[25]Boone, P.,“The Impact of Foreign Aid on Savings and Growth.”Working Paper, London School of Economics and Center for Economic Performance, 1994.
[26]Vasquez, I. ,“Official Assistance, Economic Freedom, and Policy Change: Is Foreign Aid Like Champagne?”Cato Journal, Fall 1998, 18(2), pp. 275-286.
[27]Hudson, J., and Mosley, P.,“Aid, Policies and Growth: in Search of Holy Grail?”Journal of International Development, 2001, 13(7), pp. 1023-1038; Islam, N.,“Regime Changes, Economic Policies and the Effects of Aid on Growth.”Ryerson University, Canada, May 2002; Dalgaard, C.J., and Hansen, H.,“On the Empirics of Foreign Aid and Growth.”Economic Journal, 2004, 114 (496), 191-216
[28]Dowling, M., and Hiemenz, U.,“Aid, Savings and Growth in the Asian Region.”Economic Office Report Series 3, 1982, ADB, Manila.
[29]Durbarry, R., Gemmell, N., and Greenaway, D.,“New Evidence on the Impact of Foreign Aid on Economic Growth.”Centre for Research in Economic Development and International Trade, University of Nottingham, No. 98/8.
[30]Burnside, C., and Dollar D.,“Aid, Policies, and Growth.”The American Economic Review; Sep 2000; 90(4), pp. 224-29
[31]Easterly, W.,“The White Man's Burden: Why the West's Efforts to Aid the Rest Have Done So Much Ill and So Little Good.”Penguin Press HC, March 2006, pp. 1-448
[32]Devarjan, S., Dollar, D., and Holmgre, T.,“Aid and Reform in Africa Lesson from Ten Case Studies.”Washington, DC: The World Bank
[33]世界银行发表报告——评价外援的成功与失败[J].领导决策信息,1998,(46):9.
[34]Alesina, A., and Weder, B.,“Do Corrupt Government Receive Less Foreign Aid?”The American Economic Review, Sep 2000, 94(4), 1126-1240
[36]卞纪.美国学者谈非洲的外援和经济结构调整[J].西亚非洲,1997,(5):72-73.
[38]Mo, P.K.,“Corruption and Economic Growth.”Journal of Comparative Economics, 2001, 33(2) pp. 66-79)
[39]Pellegrini, L., and Gerlagh, R.,“Corruption’s Effect on Growth and its Transmission Channels.”KYKLOS, 2004, 57(3), pp. 429-456
[40]Bliss, C., and Di T. R.,“Does Corruption Kill Corruption?”Journal of Political Economy, 1997, 05(5), pp. 1001-1023
[41]Tanzi, V., and Davoodi, H.,“Corruption, Public Investment, and Growth.”IMF Working Paper. 1997, WP/97/130
[42]Wei, S.,“How Taxing is Corruption on International Investors?”Review Economic Statistics, 2000, 82(1), pp. 1-11
[44]Tanzi, V., and Davoodi, H.,“Corruption, Public Investment, and Growth.”IMF Working Paper. 1997, WP/97/130
[45]Verbeek, M.,“A Guide to Modern Econometrics.”Johnson Wiley & Son Inc. Publisher, May 2008, pp.1-472.
[46]Gyimah, B.K., and Camacho, S. M.,“Corruption, Growth, and Income Distribution: Are there Regional Differences?”Economics of Governance, 2006, 23(7), pp. 245-269.
[47]Gyimah-Brempong(2002),Mushfiq us Swaleheen and Stansel(2007)
[48]Sachs, J., and Warner, A., 1995.“Trade Openness Indicators.”http://www.cid.harvard.edu/ciddata/ciddata.html#Larson
[49]Boone, P.,“The Impact of Foreign Aid on Savings and Growth.”Working Paper, London School of Economics and Center for Economic Performance, 1994.
[50]Fischer, S.,“The Role of Macroeconomic Factors in Growth”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 1993, 32(1), pp. 485-512.
[52]Barro, R.,“Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries.”The Quarterly Journal of Economics, May 1991, 106(2), pp. 407-443.
[53]Roeder, G.P., "Ethnolinguistic Fractionalization (ELF) Indices, 1961 and 1985." February 16,2001 http//:weber.ucsd.edu\~proeder\elf.htm
[54]Marshall, M. G., and Jaggers, K.,“Polity VI Project:Political Characteristics and Transitions, 1800-2007.”http://www.systemicpeace.org/polity/polity4.htm
[55]Werlin, H.,“Corruption and Foreign Aid in Africa.”Foreign Policy Research Institute Summer 2005.
[56]Kasper, W.,“Make Poverty History: Tackle Corruption.”Independent Studies, Jan 2006, 67.
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