农业科技人力资本对农业经济发展的作用及价值评价研究
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摘要
农村发展关系到我国未来社会经济发展的整体进程。我国农业在过去的三十多年中,在人口增长和耕地面积减少的双重压力下,实现了从农产品严重短缺到供求总量平衡、丰年有余的历史性跨越。在取得这一辉煌成就的过程中,农业科技起了关键性的作用,这也正契合了现代人力资本理论的论述:人力资本已经超越物质资本和金融资本,成为“第一资本”。在农业发展中,农业科技人力资本对农业经济发展发挥了举足轻重作用。
本文结合当前人力资本理论和价值理论研究成果,将其纳入到农业科技人力资本的体系框架中,研究了农业科技人力资本对农业经济发展的作用及其价值评价问题。首先,构建了农业科技人力资本对农业经济增长的计量经济学模型,并采用山东省统计年鉴数据对农业科技人力资本在农业经济发展中的促进作用进行了实证分析。其次,基于价值理论设计了农业科技人力资本价值评价的指标体系,并借助可靠性评价方法对农业科技人力资本价值进行了定量研究。最后,借鉴成熟度模型,提出了农业科技人力资本价值成熟度模型,并据此进行了农业科技人力资本价值的分级和优化。本文主要创新有以下四个方面:
第一,通过总结分析当前国内外人力资本及其价值理论的相关论点,给出了农业科技人力资本理论框架,对农业科技人力资本及其价值进行了内涵分析,界定了两者的概念以及分类、特征;以农业科技人力资本价值量化为切入点,提出了农业科技人力资本价值评价的理论框架和设计思路,构建了农业科技人力资本价值评价指标体系。
第二,依据人力资本促进经济增长的一般原理,结合当前人力资本内生经济增长模型,建立了农业科技人力资本有效劳动投入的生产函数模型和计量经济学模型,进而对1987-2008年山东省农业经济增加值、物质资本投入和科技人力资本时间序列建立向量自回归(VAR)模型,实证检验了农业科技人力资本对农业经济发展的推动作用。
第三,借鉴可靠性评价方法,将其引入农业科技人力资本价值评价领域,将系统的可靠度与农业科技人力资本价值的评价有机联系在一起,提出了一条新的农业科技人力资本价值评价方法,为农业科技人力资本价值评价提供了量化依据,对进行农业科技人力资本实际工作绩效评价具有一定的参考价值。
第四,根据能力成熟理论,结合农业科技人力资本的实际情况,提出了具有五个级别的农业科技人力资本价值评价成熟度模型,在利用可靠性方法获得农业科技人力资本价值评价值的基础上,根据评价值对农业科技人力资本价值进行分级,从而得到农业科技人力资本价值的直观评价结果,并通过成熟度模型“持续改进”的思想,为提升农业科技人力资本价值成熟级别,进而提升农业科技人力资本价值提供了一种新的实用方法。
Rural development is influencing the overall process of future social and economic development of China. In the past three decades, under the dual pressure of population growth and the reduction of cultivated area, China's agriculture has achieved a significant shift from a serious shortage of agricultural products to the balance of supply and demand, even to the surplus in good harvest years. These brilliant achievements greatly depended on the agricultural science and technology, which fit the modern human capital theory very well: Human capital has become the "First Capital" beyond physical capital and financial capital. In agricultural development, agricultural science and technology human capital in the agricultural economy development is playing a pivotal role.
Combining the present studies about human capital theory and value theory under the system framework of human capital in agricultural science and technology, this paper studies the effect on agricultural economic development and the value evaluation of human capital in agricultural science and technology. First of all, the econometric model of human capital in agricultural science and technology on agriculture economic development is built, and the empirical analysis is adopted to analyze the advancement of economic development due to human capital in agricultural science and technology with the data from Shandong statistical yearbook. Second, the index system of value measurement of human capital in agricultural science and technology is offered base on value theory, and the quantitative research is made to research the human capital value in agricultural science and technology with the help of reliability evaluation method. Finally, the value maturity model of human capital in agricultural science and technology is proposed, and the classification and optimization of human capital value in agricultural science and technology is made according to the value maturity referring to the software maturity model. Generally speaking, there are four innovations in this paper as follows:
Firstly, by analyzing and summarizing the current related arguments of human capital and its value theory at home abroad, this paper presents a framework theory of human capital in agricultural science and technology, analyzes the connotation of human capital in agricultural science and technology and its value, and distinguishes their concepts, makes the classifications and the feature; with the human capital value quantitative in agricultural science and technology as an entry point, this paper puts forward the framework theory and design ideas of the evaluation of human capital value in agricultural science and technology, and constructs the evaluation index system of human capital value in agricultural science and technology .
Secondly, based on a general principle that human capital promotes economic growth, and considering the current endogenous economic growth model of human capital, this paper constructs a production function model of effective labor inputs and the econometrics model of human capital in agricultural science and technology. This paper constructs a Vector autoregression(VAR) model of the time series of Shandong agricultural economic value addition, physical capital investment and human capital in science and technology from 1987 to 2008, and verifies that human capital in agricultural science and technology promotes agricultural economic development.
Thirdly, this paper proposes a new method into the value evaluation field of human capital in agricultural science and technology by introducing the reliability evaluation method, and achieves an organic combination of the reliability theory and the value evaluation of human capital in agricultural science and technology. Thus, it can provide the quantitative basis for the value evaluation of human capital in agricultural science and technology and provide certain referential value in the evaluation of the practical performance of human capital in agricultural science and technology.
Fourthly, this paper puts forward a evaluation maturity model of human capital in agricultural science and technology which has five grades according to the capability maturity theory and by taking the practical situation of value evaluation of human capital in agricultural science and technology into consideration. Based on the results of evaluation of human capital in agricultural science and technology obtained through reliability evaluation method, the paper carry out gradation on the value evaluation of human capital in agricultural science and technology according to the results of the evaluation and obtains the direct evaluation results of the value of human capital in agricultural science and technology. Besides, guided by the“gradual improvement”principle of the maturity model theory, this paper provides an entirely new and practical method to enhance the maturity grades of the value of human capital in agricultural science and technology in order to enhance the value of human capital in agricultural science and technology.
本文结合当前人力资本理论和价值理论研究成果,将其纳入到农业科技人力资本的体系框架中,研究了农业科技人力资本对农业经济发展的作用及其价值评价问题。首先,构建了农业科技人力资本对农业经济增长的计量经济学模型,并采用山东省统计年鉴数据对农业科技人力资本在农业经济发展中的促进作用进行了实证分析。其次,基于价值理论设计了农业科技人力资本价值评价的指标体系,并借助可靠性评价方法对农业科技人力资本价值进行了定量研究。最后,借鉴成熟度模型,提出了农业科技人力资本价值成熟度模型,并据此进行了农业科技人力资本价值的分级和优化。本文主要创新有以下四个方面:
第一,通过总结分析当前国内外人力资本及其价值理论的相关论点,给出了农业科技人力资本理论框架,对农业科技人力资本及其价值进行了内涵分析,界定了两者的概念以及分类、特征;以农业科技人力资本价值量化为切入点,提出了农业科技人力资本价值评价的理论框架和设计思路,构建了农业科技人力资本价值评价指标体系。
第二,依据人力资本促进经济增长的一般原理,结合当前人力资本内生经济增长模型,建立了农业科技人力资本有效劳动投入的生产函数模型和计量经济学模型,进而对1987-2008年山东省农业经济增加值、物质资本投入和科技人力资本时间序列建立向量自回归(VAR)模型,实证检验了农业科技人力资本对农业经济发展的推动作用。
第三,借鉴可靠性评价方法,将其引入农业科技人力资本价值评价领域,将系统的可靠度与农业科技人力资本价值的评价有机联系在一起,提出了一条新的农业科技人力资本价值评价方法,为农业科技人力资本价值评价提供了量化依据,对进行农业科技人力资本实际工作绩效评价具有一定的参考价值。
第四,根据能力成熟理论,结合农业科技人力资本的实际情况,提出了具有五个级别的农业科技人力资本价值评价成熟度模型,在利用可靠性方法获得农业科技人力资本价值评价值的基础上,根据评价值对农业科技人力资本价值进行分级,从而得到农业科技人力资本价值的直观评价结果,并通过成熟度模型“持续改进”的思想,为提升农业科技人力资本价值成熟级别,进而提升农业科技人力资本价值提供了一种新的实用方法。
Rural development is influencing the overall process of future social and economic development of China. In the past three decades, under the dual pressure of population growth and the reduction of cultivated area, China's agriculture has achieved a significant shift from a serious shortage of agricultural products to the balance of supply and demand, even to the surplus in good harvest years. These brilliant achievements greatly depended on the agricultural science and technology, which fit the modern human capital theory very well: Human capital has become the "First Capital" beyond physical capital and financial capital. In agricultural development, agricultural science and technology human capital in the agricultural economy development is playing a pivotal role.
Combining the present studies about human capital theory and value theory under the system framework of human capital in agricultural science and technology, this paper studies the effect on agricultural economic development and the value evaluation of human capital in agricultural science and technology. First of all, the econometric model of human capital in agricultural science and technology on agriculture economic development is built, and the empirical analysis is adopted to analyze the advancement of economic development due to human capital in agricultural science and technology with the data from Shandong statistical yearbook. Second, the index system of value measurement of human capital in agricultural science and technology is offered base on value theory, and the quantitative research is made to research the human capital value in agricultural science and technology with the help of reliability evaluation method. Finally, the value maturity model of human capital in agricultural science and technology is proposed, and the classification and optimization of human capital value in agricultural science and technology is made according to the value maturity referring to the software maturity model. Generally speaking, there are four innovations in this paper as follows:
Firstly, by analyzing and summarizing the current related arguments of human capital and its value theory at home abroad, this paper presents a framework theory of human capital in agricultural science and technology, analyzes the connotation of human capital in agricultural science and technology and its value, and distinguishes their concepts, makes the classifications and the feature; with the human capital value quantitative in agricultural science and technology as an entry point, this paper puts forward the framework theory and design ideas of the evaluation of human capital value in agricultural science and technology, and constructs the evaluation index system of human capital value in agricultural science and technology .
Secondly, based on a general principle that human capital promotes economic growth, and considering the current endogenous economic growth model of human capital, this paper constructs a production function model of effective labor inputs and the econometrics model of human capital in agricultural science and technology. This paper constructs a Vector autoregression(VAR) model of the time series of Shandong agricultural economic value addition, physical capital investment and human capital in science and technology from 1987 to 2008, and verifies that human capital in agricultural science and technology promotes agricultural economic development.
Thirdly, this paper proposes a new method into the value evaluation field of human capital in agricultural science and technology by introducing the reliability evaluation method, and achieves an organic combination of the reliability theory and the value evaluation of human capital in agricultural science and technology. Thus, it can provide the quantitative basis for the value evaluation of human capital in agricultural science and technology and provide certain referential value in the evaluation of the practical performance of human capital in agricultural science and technology.
Fourthly, this paper puts forward a evaluation maturity model of human capital in agricultural science and technology which has five grades according to the capability maturity theory and by taking the practical situation of value evaluation of human capital in agricultural science and technology into consideration. Based on the results of evaluation of human capital in agricultural science and technology obtained through reliability evaluation method, the paper carry out gradation on the value evaluation of human capital in agricultural science and technology according to the results of the evaluation and obtains the direct evaluation results of the value of human capital in agricultural science and technology. Besides, guided by the“gradual improvement”principle of the maturity model theory, this paper provides an entirely new and practical method to enhance the maturity grades of the value of human capital in agricultural science and technology in order to enhance the value of human capital in agricultural science and technology.
引文
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