流动性过剩对通货膨胀和资产价格的影响
|
摘要
近年来世界范围内各主要经济体宏观货币经济运行中存在一个显著特征:流动性由2001年开始至2007年的显著过剩,到2007年底次贷危机爆发后随着实体经济逐渐陷入衰退而急转直下,发展到2008年底的流动性极度短缺,而在金融危机引发的世界各国实体经济衰退愈演愈烈之时,中外各国为刺激经济纷纷采取宽松的货币政策和积极的财政政策,2009年上半年开始全球流动性骤然从短缺转变为泛滥。流动性过剩和逆转的变动被广泛地认为是导致通货膨胀和资产价格剧烈波动的主要因素:流动性状况(过剩或短缺)及其变动对通货膨胀和资产价格的影响程度、作用机制、传导途径是什么?流动性过剩(短缺)是如何产生的:是源于货币总供给与总需求不稳定而导致央行货币调控失误,还是源于外部经济的流动性过剩(短缺)对输入,还是源于宏观经济部门内部自发调整资产负债表结构而产生的流动性内生机制?在流动性由过剩变为短缺的过程中,资产价格变动和通胀(预期)扮演了什么角色?针对不同的流动性产生机制,货币政策和财政政策是否有效?在当前国际经济金融形势错综复杂,几大实体经济由盛及衰又纷纷探底回升的国际大环境下,这不仅是一系列理论问题,更是一系列现实问题。
本文首先回顾了中国及世界10个国家和地区截至2008年初的10年间出现的流动性过剩状况,并对其与通货膨胀、资产价格的影响关系进行初步考察;在“马歇尔K值”基础上对流动性、流动性过剩(短缺)进行界定和测度,根据经验数据检验了世界范围内各国(包含中美在内的10个国家和地区以及新兴市场国家BRIC、发达国家G6)出现的流动性过剩(或短缺)对通货膨胀和资产价格影响程度的统计关系。基于离散选择模型Probit,对“流动性过剩引发了通货膨胀和资产价格膨胀”这一常见的判断进行概率检验。结果发现,虽然解释效果有限,流动性持续过剩、真实经济增长、股票为代表的风险资产价格上涨带来的“示范效应”、真实利率保持在低位、国际范围内多国同时出现货币增长较快以及持续时间较长,这些因素都显著地提高了通货膨胀持续上涨这一事件发生的概率。同时确实存在流动性过剩现象在国际范围内由发达国家主导转变为由新兴市场国家主导,并且对通胀产生显著影响,但是次贷危机的影响由于研究时点和样本所限尚没有显现。
针对2005-2008年间中国出现流动性过剩的显著特征,本文对中国货币总供给和总需求两方面分别进行建模,将资产价格变动、通货膨胀含在商品、货币和信贷市场均衡的联立模型中予以内生解释,从货币总量供求失衡的角度对中国出现流动性过剩及逆转的原因进行探讨,考察多种外生冲击影响、央行货币政策组合、商业银行行为选择在流动性状况变动中产生的影响及效果,并对流动性状况变动过程中通货膨胀和资产价格扮演了什么角色进行考察。货币总供给方面,本文考察了作为输入型流动性过剩的重要部分,即基于套汇、套息、套利三重目的热钱流动产生的影响、央行货币政策组合的对冲效果和商业银行超额存款准备金率调整行为;货币总需求方面区分实体经济和虚拟经济的二元货币经济体系结构性的不同特征,及两个系统的货币流通速度的变动趋势和影响因素对货币需求结构性变化的解释能力差异,资产价格对虚拟经济的影响、大宗商品价格上涨对通胀预期的影响也在建模中予以考察。
综合货币供求两方面的实证结果可以看到,经济体内生性的对货币量的需求增长率在2008年上半年之前一直是低于货币供给增长率的,这也就是近年来看到的中国流动性持续过剩的现象。但是,随着2008下半年开始金融危机和经济衰退的逐渐加深,输入型流动性过剩逐渐出现逆转(包括外部经济条件恶化带来的贸易顺差增幅放缓、人民币汇率升值预期逆转、央行对冲政策和商业银行超额准备金率调整空间变小等综合影响)对货币供应方面的压力大幅减小,甚至低于经济体的内生性货币需求增长率;而从货币需求角度看,资产价格(包括大宗商品价格)在2008下半年出现的暴跌和波动率放大的情况下,虚拟经济系统所需货币的流通速度明显回升,而实体经济所需货币的流通速度变动不大,并且流入实体经济的货币量比例也相应提高,整个经济系统的货币需求增长率小幅放缓;综合两方面发现,中国的流动性过剩状况已于2008年下半年发生明显的逆转。
本文最后一部分深入到宏观经济分部门中,将对流动性状况变动(过剩或短缺)与经济部门资产负债调整行为相结合进行考察,认为比宏观货币总量层面的流动性状况及变动更能反映真实货币资金供求关系的是微观经济部门内部的资产选择行为变动。针对美国经济分部门特征,本文使用美国分部门经济数据,经过参数校准后,构建了基于“存量-流量一致分析方法”(SFCA)的宏观经济六部门模型,一个包含83方程的SFCA模型系统,对SFCA模型系进行统动态模拟分析,探讨了实体经济因素、预期因素、政策工具等各种外生冲击变量对美国居民部门资产选择行为变动产生影响的解释程度以及相对重要性。
模拟结果发现:(1)实体经济因素方面,潜在GDP产出增加、劳动力部门与企业的工资谈判能力提高、劳动生产率提高(技术进步)、产能利用率提高(产能过剩)均可通过资产配置比例的变动造成流动性首先出现过剩,其后向短缺方向转化,最终需要较长时间回复之前的均衡路径;而企业股票融资比例和利润留存率的决定,对流动性资产的影响不明显,而对股票和债券的需求有较大影响。(2)预期因素方面,通胀预期和股票未来价格预期参数值的增大造成了流动性短缺,而后趋于均衡;GDP增速预期和劳动生产率预期参数的影响则相反。对模型中的货币政策和财政政策工具变量的影响效果进行模拟后发现,央行法定存款准备金率和商业银行内部流动性管理要求的提高对控制流动性短期效果明显,但是效果随后逐渐丧失;财政政策方面,税率的提高明显收缩了流动性,积极财政支出的增长对流动性基本上没有影响。
In recent years, the monetary conditions of major economies all around the world have a significant character, whose macro liquidities were obvious excessive during 2001 to 2007, but this trend reversed sharply to extreme shortage of liquidity because the real economy gradually stuck in the recession after the explosively outburst of sub-prime mortgage financial crisis in the second half year of 2007. Facing the worsening economy prospect triggered by the financial crisis, many countries around the world adopted positive monetary and fisical policies, which caused the reversal from liquidity shortage to excess liquidity. Meanwhile, the excess liquidity and its sharp downturn to shortage was widely considered as the principal reason of magnified volatility of inflation and asset price. What is the effect and mechanism of the condition of macro liquidity, excess or shortage, on inflation and asset prices, and to what extent was the effect? What was the origin of the excess liquidity, or liquidity shortage? Did it rooted in the monetary authorities' mis-ajustment because of the unstable monetary supply and demand functions, or the spill-over of the external monetary liquidity condition, or the endogenous liquidity creation mechanism which origins from the dynamic adjustment behaviors based on sectoral balance sheets by the economic sectors? What was the function played by the boom and bust of asset prices and inflation expectation during the downturn of liquidity from excess to shortage? Were the monetary policy and fiscal policy adopted effectively, given the different kinds of excess liquidity origins? All above questions are both theoretical and realistic problems of great value, especially facing the complicated international financial crisis and turbulence and recession of major economies nowadays.
Firstly, we take a glance of the monetary liquidity conditions of ten countries or economies during 1999 to 2008, and have a preparatory analysis of the relation between liquidity, inflation and asset prices. Based on the measure of "Marshall K", we define and measure the liquidity and the extent of excess liquidity or liquidity shortage. Using the historical data, we conduct empirical analysis of the statistical effect of excess liquidity on inflation and asset prices, which samples globally, including ten major countries and the economy groups of emerging countries BRIC and developed countries G6. Based on the discrete choice model Probit, we analyze the probability of the event: excess liquidity triggers inflation and asset price boom, which is taken for granted in common sense. Upon the conclusion, we find that, in despite of inconspicuous statistical evidence, sustained excess liquidity, real economic growth, demonstration effect of risky asset prices boom, real interest rate keeping low level, numbers of countries having excess liquidity simultaneously and period of excess liquidity lasting, all significantly make a positive contribution to the probability of the hypothetical event. At the same time, we find the changed trend of excess liquidity leading role, from developed countries to emerging countries, and obviously this had a significant effect on inflation. Due to the lack of recent data, we cannot find the evidence that sub-prime mortgage financial crisis have an actual effect.
Focused on the significant characters shown by Chinese monetary excess liquidity during 2005 to 2008, we model the monetary demand and supply functions separately, and include the asset prices and inflation endogenously in a simultaneous equations framework with goods, money and credit markets involved. From the point of view that excess liquidity or liquidity shortage origins from the non-equilibrium of monetary demand and supply, which could give us a clearer deep insight of the change of monetary liquidity conditions. Within this analytical framework, we review the effect on excess liquidity of various exogenous variables, such as external shock, policy basket adopted by monetary authorities and voluntary behaviors adopted by commercial banks. Furthermore, we carefully scrutinize the role played by inflation and asset prices during the change of liquidity conditions. On the aspect of money supply, we explore the important part of external excess liquidity spillover, hot money, which is aimed at speculation on exchange rate, interest rate and asset prices in china. We also consider the hedging effect of the policy basket adopted by central bank and the role played by the excess reserve ratio adjustment behavior of commercial banks. On the aspect of money demand, we divide the macro economy into real economy and artificial economy according to their different characters, and explore the effect of different trends of money circulation velocity of these two monetary systems have on the monetary demand. We also take into account of the effects of asset prices on artificial economy, and commodity price on inflation expectation.
As found by the empirical study' s conclusions of both sides of money supply and demand, the growth rate of endogenous money demand were lower than the growth rate of money supply before the first half year of 2008. But after then, with the outburst of financial crisis and economic recession, the external excess liquidity spillover reversed, including the downturn growth rate of Chinese trade surplus because of lower external demand, reversion of RMB exchange rate appreciation expectations, and hedging policy of central bank and excess reserve ratio adjustment behavior of commercial banks became of restriction. These all decrease the pressure on money supply; even make the money supply lower than the endogenous money demand. On the other side of money demand aspect, with the asset prices collapse and bigger volatility, including commodities prices, after the second half year of 2008, the monetary circulation velocity of artificial economy rised significantly, meanwhile, the velocity of real economy seemed stable. At the same time, the ratio of money which flowed into the real economy rised accordingly, and the growth rate of money demand of the whole economy decreased slightly. Synthesized from these two sides, we found that the condition of Chinese excess liquidity had an obvious reversal after the second half year of 2008.
The last part of analysis goes into the deeper view of sectoral economy; we relate the change of monetary liquidity conditions with the sectors' assets/liabilities adjustment behaviors. We take this research angle because the micro-foundation of sectoral change of asset allocation behaviors can more accurately reveal the real monetary conditions than the measures based on the macro monetary variables. Using the American sectoral data and the standard procedure of calibration, we finally construct the Stock-Flow Consistent Analysis (SFCA) model with six sectors and 83 equations, according to the characters of American economy. Followed by standard dynamic simulation procedures, we analyze the effect and relative importance of various external shocks, such as real economy variables, expectation variables and policy instruments, on the American's household sector's change of assets allocation behavior.
As shown by the results of simulation, we found that, (1) on the real economy aspects-the potential growth rate of GDP, the increase of wage bargaining power between labors and firms, the increase of productivity, increase of production utilization-all had significant effects on households' assets allocation and adjustment behaviors, and led an macro monetary excess liquidity condition at several beginning periods, but had a reversal afterward, and eventually reverted to the original equilibrium path after many periods. The decisions of firms' external financing ratio and profit retained ratio had little effects on household' s liquidity assets, but had a significant effect on their demands of bonds and stocks. (2) on the aspects of expectations, the increase of parameters of inflation expectation and future stock price expectation led to an obvious shortage of liquidity firstly and came back to their original equilibrium paths, meanwhile the increase of parameters of GDP expectation and productivity expectation had opposite effects. The simulations of monetary policy and fiscal policy shown that, the increase of statutory reserve ratio settled by the central bank and excess reserve ratio adjustment of commercial banks had significantly effects on controlling excess liquidity, only in the short term, the effects would disappear soon in the long run. On the side of fiscal policy, an increase in tax rate significantly decreased the excess liquidity, but the active government spending had little effects on the macro monetary liquidity.
本文首先回顾了中国及世界10个国家和地区截至2008年初的10年间出现的流动性过剩状况,并对其与通货膨胀、资产价格的影响关系进行初步考察;在“马歇尔K值”基础上对流动性、流动性过剩(短缺)进行界定和测度,根据经验数据检验了世界范围内各国(包含中美在内的10个国家和地区以及新兴市场国家BRIC、发达国家G6)出现的流动性过剩(或短缺)对通货膨胀和资产价格影响程度的统计关系。基于离散选择模型Probit,对“流动性过剩引发了通货膨胀和资产价格膨胀”这一常见的判断进行概率检验。结果发现,虽然解释效果有限,流动性持续过剩、真实经济增长、股票为代表的风险资产价格上涨带来的“示范效应”、真实利率保持在低位、国际范围内多国同时出现货币增长较快以及持续时间较长,这些因素都显著地提高了通货膨胀持续上涨这一事件发生的概率。同时确实存在流动性过剩现象在国际范围内由发达国家主导转变为由新兴市场国家主导,并且对通胀产生显著影响,但是次贷危机的影响由于研究时点和样本所限尚没有显现。
针对2005-2008年间中国出现流动性过剩的显著特征,本文对中国货币总供给和总需求两方面分别进行建模,将资产价格变动、通货膨胀含在商品、货币和信贷市场均衡的联立模型中予以内生解释,从货币总量供求失衡的角度对中国出现流动性过剩及逆转的原因进行探讨,考察多种外生冲击影响、央行货币政策组合、商业银行行为选择在流动性状况变动中产生的影响及效果,并对流动性状况变动过程中通货膨胀和资产价格扮演了什么角色进行考察。货币总供给方面,本文考察了作为输入型流动性过剩的重要部分,即基于套汇、套息、套利三重目的热钱流动产生的影响、央行货币政策组合的对冲效果和商业银行超额存款准备金率调整行为;货币总需求方面区分实体经济和虚拟经济的二元货币经济体系结构性的不同特征,及两个系统的货币流通速度的变动趋势和影响因素对货币需求结构性变化的解释能力差异,资产价格对虚拟经济的影响、大宗商品价格上涨对通胀预期的影响也在建模中予以考察。
综合货币供求两方面的实证结果可以看到,经济体内生性的对货币量的需求增长率在2008年上半年之前一直是低于货币供给增长率的,这也就是近年来看到的中国流动性持续过剩的现象。但是,随着2008下半年开始金融危机和经济衰退的逐渐加深,输入型流动性过剩逐渐出现逆转(包括外部经济条件恶化带来的贸易顺差增幅放缓、人民币汇率升值预期逆转、央行对冲政策和商业银行超额准备金率调整空间变小等综合影响)对货币供应方面的压力大幅减小,甚至低于经济体的内生性货币需求增长率;而从货币需求角度看,资产价格(包括大宗商品价格)在2008下半年出现的暴跌和波动率放大的情况下,虚拟经济系统所需货币的流通速度明显回升,而实体经济所需货币的流通速度变动不大,并且流入实体经济的货币量比例也相应提高,整个经济系统的货币需求增长率小幅放缓;综合两方面发现,中国的流动性过剩状况已于2008年下半年发生明显的逆转。
本文最后一部分深入到宏观经济分部门中,将对流动性状况变动(过剩或短缺)与经济部门资产负债调整行为相结合进行考察,认为比宏观货币总量层面的流动性状况及变动更能反映真实货币资金供求关系的是微观经济部门内部的资产选择行为变动。针对美国经济分部门特征,本文使用美国分部门经济数据,经过参数校准后,构建了基于“存量-流量一致分析方法”(SFCA)的宏观经济六部门模型,一个包含83方程的SFCA模型系统,对SFCA模型系进行统动态模拟分析,探讨了实体经济因素、预期因素、政策工具等各种外生冲击变量对美国居民部门资产选择行为变动产生影响的解释程度以及相对重要性。
模拟结果发现:(1)实体经济因素方面,潜在GDP产出增加、劳动力部门与企业的工资谈判能力提高、劳动生产率提高(技术进步)、产能利用率提高(产能过剩)均可通过资产配置比例的变动造成流动性首先出现过剩,其后向短缺方向转化,最终需要较长时间回复之前的均衡路径;而企业股票融资比例和利润留存率的决定,对流动性资产的影响不明显,而对股票和债券的需求有较大影响。(2)预期因素方面,通胀预期和股票未来价格预期参数值的增大造成了流动性短缺,而后趋于均衡;GDP增速预期和劳动生产率预期参数的影响则相反。对模型中的货币政策和财政政策工具变量的影响效果进行模拟后发现,央行法定存款准备金率和商业银行内部流动性管理要求的提高对控制流动性短期效果明显,但是效果随后逐渐丧失;财政政策方面,税率的提高明显收缩了流动性,积极财政支出的增长对流动性基本上没有影响。
In recent years, the monetary conditions of major economies all around the world have a significant character, whose macro liquidities were obvious excessive during 2001 to 2007, but this trend reversed sharply to extreme shortage of liquidity because the real economy gradually stuck in the recession after the explosively outburst of sub-prime mortgage financial crisis in the second half year of 2007. Facing the worsening economy prospect triggered by the financial crisis, many countries around the world adopted positive monetary and fisical policies, which caused the reversal from liquidity shortage to excess liquidity. Meanwhile, the excess liquidity and its sharp downturn to shortage was widely considered as the principal reason of magnified volatility of inflation and asset price. What is the effect and mechanism of the condition of macro liquidity, excess or shortage, on inflation and asset prices, and to what extent was the effect? What was the origin of the excess liquidity, or liquidity shortage? Did it rooted in the monetary authorities' mis-ajustment because of the unstable monetary supply and demand functions, or the spill-over of the external monetary liquidity condition, or the endogenous liquidity creation mechanism which origins from the dynamic adjustment behaviors based on sectoral balance sheets by the economic sectors? What was the function played by the boom and bust of asset prices and inflation expectation during the downturn of liquidity from excess to shortage? Were the monetary policy and fiscal policy adopted effectively, given the different kinds of excess liquidity origins? All above questions are both theoretical and realistic problems of great value, especially facing the complicated international financial crisis and turbulence and recession of major economies nowadays.
Firstly, we take a glance of the monetary liquidity conditions of ten countries or economies during 1999 to 2008, and have a preparatory analysis of the relation between liquidity, inflation and asset prices. Based on the measure of "Marshall K", we define and measure the liquidity and the extent of excess liquidity or liquidity shortage. Using the historical data, we conduct empirical analysis of the statistical effect of excess liquidity on inflation and asset prices, which samples globally, including ten major countries and the economy groups of emerging countries BRIC and developed countries G6. Based on the discrete choice model Probit, we analyze the probability of the event: excess liquidity triggers inflation and asset price boom, which is taken for granted in common sense. Upon the conclusion, we find that, in despite of inconspicuous statistical evidence, sustained excess liquidity, real economic growth, demonstration effect of risky asset prices boom, real interest rate keeping low level, numbers of countries having excess liquidity simultaneously and period of excess liquidity lasting, all significantly make a positive contribution to the probability of the hypothetical event. At the same time, we find the changed trend of excess liquidity leading role, from developed countries to emerging countries, and obviously this had a significant effect on inflation. Due to the lack of recent data, we cannot find the evidence that sub-prime mortgage financial crisis have an actual effect.
Focused on the significant characters shown by Chinese monetary excess liquidity during 2005 to 2008, we model the monetary demand and supply functions separately, and include the asset prices and inflation endogenously in a simultaneous equations framework with goods, money and credit markets involved. From the point of view that excess liquidity or liquidity shortage origins from the non-equilibrium of monetary demand and supply, which could give us a clearer deep insight of the change of monetary liquidity conditions. Within this analytical framework, we review the effect on excess liquidity of various exogenous variables, such as external shock, policy basket adopted by monetary authorities and voluntary behaviors adopted by commercial banks. Furthermore, we carefully scrutinize the role played by inflation and asset prices during the change of liquidity conditions. On the aspect of money supply, we explore the important part of external excess liquidity spillover, hot money, which is aimed at speculation on exchange rate, interest rate and asset prices in china. We also consider the hedging effect of the policy basket adopted by central bank and the role played by the excess reserve ratio adjustment behavior of commercial banks. On the aspect of money demand, we divide the macro economy into real economy and artificial economy according to their different characters, and explore the effect of different trends of money circulation velocity of these two monetary systems have on the monetary demand. We also take into account of the effects of asset prices on artificial economy, and commodity price on inflation expectation.
As found by the empirical study' s conclusions of both sides of money supply and demand, the growth rate of endogenous money demand were lower than the growth rate of money supply before the first half year of 2008. But after then, with the outburst of financial crisis and economic recession, the external excess liquidity spillover reversed, including the downturn growth rate of Chinese trade surplus because of lower external demand, reversion of RMB exchange rate appreciation expectations, and hedging policy of central bank and excess reserve ratio adjustment behavior of commercial banks became of restriction. These all decrease the pressure on money supply; even make the money supply lower than the endogenous money demand. On the other side of money demand aspect, with the asset prices collapse and bigger volatility, including commodities prices, after the second half year of 2008, the monetary circulation velocity of artificial economy rised significantly, meanwhile, the velocity of real economy seemed stable. At the same time, the ratio of money which flowed into the real economy rised accordingly, and the growth rate of money demand of the whole economy decreased slightly. Synthesized from these two sides, we found that the condition of Chinese excess liquidity had an obvious reversal after the second half year of 2008.
The last part of analysis goes into the deeper view of sectoral economy; we relate the change of monetary liquidity conditions with the sectors' assets/liabilities adjustment behaviors. We take this research angle because the micro-foundation of sectoral change of asset allocation behaviors can more accurately reveal the real monetary conditions than the measures based on the macro monetary variables. Using the American sectoral data and the standard procedure of calibration, we finally construct the Stock-Flow Consistent Analysis (SFCA) model with six sectors and 83 equations, according to the characters of American economy. Followed by standard dynamic simulation procedures, we analyze the effect and relative importance of various external shocks, such as real economy variables, expectation variables and policy instruments, on the American's household sector's change of assets allocation behavior.
As shown by the results of simulation, we found that, (1) on the real economy aspects-the potential growth rate of GDP, the increase of wage bargaining power between labors and firms, the increase of productivity, increase of production utilization-all had significant effects on households' assets allocation and adjustment behaviors, and led an macro monetary excess liquidity condition at several beginning periods, but had a reversal afterward, and eventually reverted to the original equilibrium path after many periods. The decisions of firms' external financing ratio and profit retained ratio had little effects on household' s liquidity assets, but had a significant effect on their demands of bonds and stocks. (2) on the aspects of expectations, the increase of parameters of inflation expectation and future stock price expectation led to an obvious shortage of liquidity firstly and came back to their original equilibrium paths, meanwhile the increase of parameters of GDP expectation and productivity expectation had opposite effects. The simulations of monetary policy and fiscal policy shown that, the increase of statutory reserve ratio settled by the central bank and excess reserve ratio adjustment of commercial banks had significantly effects on controlling excess liquidity, only in the short term, the effects would disappear soon in the long run. On the side of fiscal policy, an increase in tax rate significantly decreased the excess liquidity, but the active government spending had little effects on the macro monetary liquidity.
引文
1 对于流动性过剩的定义、范畴、根源、影响及对策的定性研究较多,如:曾康霖(2007)、巴曙松(2007)、李晓西、和晋予(2007)、卜永祥(2007),余永定(2007)、黄海洲(2007)、朱民(2007)、李扬(2007)、王建(2007)和刘锡良(2007)、张雪春(2007)、钱小安(2007)、黄晓龙(2007)等,但对于流动性过剩的系统一致的定量研究还非常缺乏。
2 货币政策和资产价格关系的文献回顾,主要参考和引用了黄广明(2003)的观点。
3 “存量-流量一致分析”方法(Stock-Flow Consistent Analysis,简称SFCA)详细的文献回顾和细节介绍,由于内容连续性和相关性方面的考虑,将放在本文第5、6章。
[1]巴曙松.观察流动性过剩的国际视角[J].中国金融,2007,10.
[2]陈学彬.我国近期货币调控效果的定量模拟分析[J].国际金融研究,2001,6.
[3]陈学彬.我国宏观经济波动AD-AS模拟分析[J].经济研究.1995,5.
[4]陈利平.货币存量中介目标制下我国货币政策低效率的理论分析[J].金融研究,2006,1.
[5]管涛,王信,潘宏胜,林艳红.对当前我国贸易项下异常资金流入的分析--兼评渣打银行王志浩关于贸易顺差的研究报告[J],国际金融研究,2007,6.
[6]国务院发展研究中心宏观经济研究课题组.当前流动性过剩的趋势、影响与对策[J].宏观经济管理,2007,7.
[7]黄海洲.全球流动性、投资和种树经济[J].国际经济评论,2007,5-6.
[8]黄广明.资产价格泡沫与货币政策理论的发展[D].北京:中国社会科学院研究生院博士学位论文.2003
[9]金雪军,张雪芳,李红坤.国际游资流入对我国宏观经济冲击机制分析[J].浙江大学学报,2006,3.
[10]李扬.应对流动性过剩的两个基本战略[J].中国金融,2007,3.
[11]李敬辉,范志勇.利率调整和通货膨胀预期对大宗商品价格波动的影响--利率调整和通货膨胀预期对大宗商品价格波动的影响[J].经济研究,2005,6.
[12]李治国.流动性过剩:基于货币流动速度异常下降的解析[J].经济评论,2007,5.
[13]李东平.近年中国贸易顺差虚假程度及其对货币政策的影响简析[J].国际经济评论,2008,5-6.
[14]刘锡良,董青马,王丽娅.商业银行流动性过剩问题的再认识[J].财经科学,2007,2.
[15]刘明志.中国的M2/GDP(1980-2000):趋势、水平和影响因素[J].经济研究,2001,2.
[16]刘春航,张新.繁华预期、流动性变化和资产价格[J].金融研究,2007,6.
[17]刘立达.中国国际资本流入的影响因素分析[J].金融研究,2007,3.
[18]刘骏民,伍超明.虚拟经济与实体经济关系模型--对我国当前股市与与实体经济关系的一种解释[J].经济研究,2004,4.
[19]陆磊.论银行体系的流动性过剩[J].金融研究,2007,1
[20]罗忠洲.流动性、物价稳定与资产价格上涨--从理论模型看日本的经验教训[J].证券市场导报,2007,9.
[21]麦金农.经济自由化的顺序-向市场经济过渡中的金融控制[M].中国金融出版社,1993
[22]Roger Ferguson.资产价格与货币流动性[J].中国金融家,2007,9.
[23]邵蔚.货币流动性影响资产价格的理论探讨[J].财经问题研究,2007,3.
[24]孙立坚.流动性繁荣对中国经济的影响[J].上海财经大学学报,2007,3.
[25]盛柳刚,赵洪岩.外汇储备收益率、币种结构和热钱[J].经济学季刊,2007,7.
[26]唐旭,梁猛.中国贸易顺差中是否有热钱,有多少[J].金融研究,2007,9.
[27]王曦.经济转型中的货币需求与货币流通速度[J].经济研究,2001,10.
[28]王建.我国货币流动性过剩之谜[J].宏观经济管理,2007,4.
[29]王信,林艳红.90年代以来我国短期资本流动的变化[J].国际金融研究,2005,12.
[30]王琦.关于我国国际资本流动影响因素计量模型的构建和分析[J].国际金融研究,2006,6.
[31]王世华,何帆.中国短期国际资本流动:现状、流动途径和影响因素[J].世界经济,2007, 7.
[32]伍超明.货币流通速度的再认识--虚拟经济与实体经济关系的分析[J].经济研究,2004,9.
[33]伍志文.货币供应量与物价反常规关系:理论及基于中国的经验分析[J].管理世界,2002,12.
[34]夏斌,陈道富.中国流动性报告[N].上海证券报,2007年7月11日.
[35]谢平,张怀清.融资结构、不良资产与中国M2/GDP[J].经济研究,2007,2.
[36]徐高.中国的资本外逃:从1999年到2006年的月度数据分析[R].CCER Working Paper No.C2007005,2007.
[37]徐长新,张桂霞.国际资本流动对我国银行体系稳定性影响的实证研究[J].亚太经济,2007,1.
[38]姚枝仲.真实贸易顺差,还是热钱?[J].国际经济评论,2008,7-8.
[39]余永定.理解流动性过剩[J].国际经济评论,2007,7-8.
[40]朱民.全球流动性过剩背景下的东亚金融合作[J].外交评论,2007,3.
[41]朱民,马欣.新世纪的全球资源性商品市场--价格飙升、波动、周期和趋势[J].国际金融研究,2006,11.
[42]曾康霖.流动性过剩研究的新视角[J].财贸经济,2007,1.
[43]左小蕾.警惕全球流动性过剩的输入[J].经济界,2006,4.
[44]张斌.货币供求、资产价格与总需求--基于中国事实的理论框架[R].中国社科院世界经济与政治研究所国际金融研究中心Working Paper No.0808,2008.
[45]张明,徐以升.全口径测算中国当前的热钱规模[R].中国社科院国际金融研究中心,Working Paper No.08 14,2008.
[46]张明.当前热钱流入中国的规模与渠道[R].中国社科院国际金融研究中心Working Paper No.0811,2008.
[47]张曙光,张斌.外汇储备持续积累的经济后果[J].经济研究,2007,4.
[48]张谊浩,裴平,方先明.中国的短期国际资本流入及其动机--基于利率、汇率和价格三重套利模型的实证研究[J].国际金融研究,2007,9.
[49]Annick B.Can excess liquidity signal an asset price boom?[R].National Bank of Belgium Working Paper No.117,2007.
[50]Adalid R.and C.Detken,Liquidity shock and asset price boom/bust cycles[R].ECB working paper 732,2007
[51]Bachmeier,Lance and Norman R.Swanson.Predicting Inflation:Does the Quantity Theory Help?[J].Economic Inquiry,2005.43(7):570-585.
[52]Backus,D.,Brainard,W.,Smith,G.and Tobin,J.A Model of the U.S.Financial and Non-Financial Economic Behavior[J].Journal of Money,Credit and Banking.1980,Vol(5).
[53]Barbara Roffia and Andrea Zaghini,Excess Money Growth and Inflation Dynamics [J].International Finance,2007 vol.10(3),241-280.
[54]Bernanke,Ben S.and Mark,Getler.Inside the black box:the credit channel of monetary policy transmission[J].Journal of Economic Perspectives.1999,Vol.9(40).
[55]Bernanke,Ben S.,Mark Gertler,and Simon Gilchrist.The financial acceleration in a quantitative business cycle framework in Jonh B Taylor and Michael Woodford[M].Handbook of Macroecnomics,1999
[56] Bordo, Michael D and Olivier Jeanne. Monetary Policy and Asset Prices: Does Benign Neglect Make Sense. [J]. International Finance, 2002. vol. 12.
[57] Borio C. and P. Lowe. Asset prices, financial and monetary stability: exploring the nexus. [R]. BIS working paper 114.2002.
[58] Borio C. Kennedy N. and Prowse S.D. Exploring aggregate asset price fluctuations across countries. [R]. BIS Economic Paper 40, 1994.
[59] Cecchetti, Stephen; Genberg, Hans; Lipsky, John and Wadhwani, Sushil. Asset prices and central bank policy[R]. International center for monetary and banking studies, 2000
[60] Cody, B.J., Mills, L.O., The role of commodity prices in formulating monetary policy. [J] .Review of Economics and Statistics. 1991, Vol (73), 358-365.
[61] Copeland, M. A Study of the Money Flows in the United States [R]. National Bureau of Economic Research. 1952
[62] Deaton, Augus and Guy Laroque. On the Behavior of Commodity Prices.[J] .Review of Economic Studies ,1992, Vol( 59):1,1-23.
[63] Deaton, Augus and Guy Laroque. Competitive Storage and Commodity Price Dynamics. [J] Journal of Political Economy, 1996, Vol (104):5, 896-923.
[64] Detken C. and F. Smets. Asset price booms and monetary policy. [R]. ECB working paper 364,2004.
[65] Dos Santos and Zezza, A Post-Keynesian Stock-Flow Consistent Macroeconomic Growth Model:Preliminary Results[R], Levy Economics Institute, Working Paper No. 402,2004.
[66] Edward. The outlook of Global excess liquidity [R].Oak A associates Macroeconomics Report, 2006.
[67] Ganley, Joe. Surplus Liquidity: Implications for central banks. [R]. Bank of England Lecture Series No.3.2006.
[68] Gauti E. and Jonathan D. Ostry. Does Excess Liquidity Pose a Threat in Japan? [R]. IMF Policy Discussion Paper, 2005.
[69] Godley, W. and Cripps, F. Macroeconomics[M]. Oxford University Press.1983.
[70] Godley, W. Money and Credit in a Keynesian Model of Income Determination[J]. Cambridge Journal of Economics 1999,23 (4).
[71] Godley, W. and Lavoie, M. Monetary Economics: An Integrated Approach to Credit, Money, Income, Production and Wealth[M] 2007.
[72] Godley, W., and M. Lavoie. Two Country Stock-Flow Consistent Macroeconomics Using a Closed Model within a Dollar Exchange Regime[R]. Cambridge Endowment for Research in Finance, Working Paper 10.2003
[73] Goodhart, Charles and Boris Hofmann. Asset prices and the conduct of monetary policy[R], NETEC, 2001
[74] Gouteron, Sylvain and Daniel S. Excess Monetary Liquidity and Assets Prices. [R]. Bank of France, Preliminary version.3.2005.
[75] Hua, Ping. On Primary Commodity Prices: The Impact of Macroeconomic Monetary Shocks [J] Journal of Policy Modeling, 1998, 20(6), 767-790.
[76] Jeffrey .The Effect of Monetary Policy on Real Commodity Prices [R]. Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, University of Chicago Press.2006.
[77] Joachim Fels. Global excess liquidity overview. [R].Morgan Stanley Macroeconomics Report.2005.
[78] Magnus Saxegaard. Excess Liquidity and Effectiveness of Monetary Policy. Evidence from Sub- Saharan Africa. [R]. IMF Working Paper, WP/06115.2006.
[79] Mishkin, Frederic S. The transmission mechanism and role of asset price in monetary policy[R]. NBER, WP8617,2001
[80] Minsky, H. Stabilizing an Unstable Economy[M]. Yale University Press. 1986
[81] Moudud, J. Finance in a Classical and Harrodian Cyclical Growth Model[R], The Levy Economics Institute. Working Paper No. 290.1999.
[82] Patterson, K.D and Stephenson, M.J. Stock-Flow Consistent Accounting: A Macroeconomic Perspective[J]. The Economic Journal, 1988, Vol.98, Issue 392
[83] Pindyck, Robert S. and Julio J. Rotenberg. The Excess Co-movement of Commodity Prices [J] .Economic Journal, 1990, Vol (100): 403, 1173-1189.
[84] Prema-chandra Athukorala and Sarath Rajapatirana. Capital Inflows and the Real Exchange Rate: a Comparative Study of Asia and Latin America[M]. Blackwell Publishing Ltd. 2003.
[85] Rasmus Rufer and Vivio Stracca, What Is Global Excess Liquidity, And Does It Matter?. [R]. ECB working paper 696.2006.
[86] Renu Kohli, Capital Flows and Their Macroeconomic Effects in India[R]. IMF Working Paper, WP/01/192,2001
[87] Sebastian Becker, Global Liquidity glut and Asset Price Inflation. [R], Deutsche Bank Research, May 27,2007.
[88] Taylor, L. Structuralist Macroeconomics[M]. Basic Books.1983
[89] Tobin, J. Money and the Macroeconomic Process.[J]. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. 1982,Vol(5).
[90] Tobin, J. and W. C. Brainard. Pitfalls in Financial Model building[J], American Economic Review, Paper and Proceedings 58,1968, May, pp. 99-122
[91] Thorsten Polleit and Dieter Gerdesmeier. Measures of excess liquidity. [R]. ECB 2005 Working Paper No. 65.
[92] White W.R. Is price stability enough? [R]. BIS working paper 205.2006
[93] Wynne Godley. Towards a reconstruction of macroeconomics using a Stock-Flow Consistent(SFC) model[R]. Cambridge Endowment for Research in Finance Working Paper.2004..
[94] Yung-Hsiang Ying, Yoonbai Kim. An Empirical Analysis on Capital Flows The Case of Korea and Mexico[J]. Southern Economic Journal, 2001, Vol(67):4, pp.954-968
[95] Zezza and Dos Santos. The role of Monetary Policy in Post-Keynesian Stock-Flow Consistent Macroeconomic Growth Models: Preliminary Results[R]. In M. Lavoie and M. Seccareccia, Central banking in the modern world: Alternative perspectives. Edward Elgar, Aldershot.2007
2 货币政策和资产价格关系的文献回顾,主要参考和引用了黄广明(2003)的观点。
3 “存量-流量一致分析”方法(Stock-Flow Consistent Analysis,简称SFCA)详细的文献回顾和细节介绍,由于内容连续性和相关性方面的考虑,将放在本文第5、6章。
[1]巴曙松.观察流动性过剩的国际视角[J].中国金融,2007,10.
[2]陈学彬.我国近期货币调控效果的定量模拟分析[J].国际金融研究,2001,6.
[3]陈学彬.我国宏观经济波动AD-AS模拟分析[J].经济研究.1995,5.
[4]陈利平.货币存量中介目标制下我国货币政策低效率的理论分析[J].金融研究,2006,1.
[5]管涛,王信,潘宏胜,林艳红.对当前我国贸易项下异常资金流入的分析--兼评渣打银行王志浩关于贸易顺差的研究报告[J],国际金融研究,2007,6.
[6]国务院发展研究中心宏观经济研究课题组.当前流动性过剩的趋势、影响与对策[J].宏观经济管理,2007,7.
[7]黄海洲.全球流动性、投资和种树经济[J].国际经济评论,2007,5-6.
[8]黄广明.资产价格泡沫与货币政策理论的发展[D].北京:中国社会科学院研究生院博士学位论文.2003
[9]金雪军,张雪芳,李红坤.国际游资流入对我国宏观经济冲击机制分析[J].浙江大学学报,2006,3.
[10]李扬.应对流动性过剩的两个基本战略[J].中国金融,2007,3.
[11]李敬辉,范志勇.利率调整和通货膨胀预期对大宗商品价格波动的影响--利率调整和通货膨胀预期对大宗商品价格波动的影响[J].经济研究,2005,6.
[12]李治国.流动性过剩:基于货币流动速度异常下降的解析[J].经济评论,2007,5.
[13]李东平.近年中国贸易顺差虚假程度及其对货币政策的影响简析[J].国际经济评论,2008,5-6.
[14]刘锡良,董青马,王丽娅.商业银行流动性过剩问题的再认识[J].财经科学,2007,2.
[15]刘明志.中国的M2/GDP(1980-2000):趋势、水平和影响因素[J].经济研究,2001,2.
[16]刘春航,张新.繁华预期、流动性变化和资产价格[J].金融研究,2007,6.
[17]刘立达.中国国际资本流入的影响因素分析[J].金融研究,2007,3.
[18]刘骏民,伍超明.虚拟经济与实体经济关系模型--对我国当前股市与与实体经济关系的一种解释[J].经济研究,2004,4.
[19]陆磊.论银行体系的流动性过剩[J].金融研究,2007,1
[20]罗忠洲.流动性、物价稳定与资产价格上涨--从理论模型看日本的经验教训[J].证券市场导报,2007,9.
[21]麦金农.经济自由化的顺序-向市场经济过渡中的金融控制[M].中国金融出版社,1993
[22]Roger Ferguson.资产价格与货币流动性[J].中国金融家,2007,9.
[23]邵蔚.货币流动性影响资产价格的理论探讨[J].财经问题研究,2007,3.
[24]孙立坚.流动性繁荣对中国经济的影响[J].上海财经大学学报,2007,3.
[25]盛柳刚,赵洪岩.外汇储备收益率、币种结构和热钱[J].经济学季刊,2007,7.
[26]唐旭,梁猛.中国贸易顺差中是否有热钱,有多少[J].金融研究,2007,9.
[27]王曦.经济转型中的货币需求与货币流通速度[J].经济研究,2001,10.
[28]王建.我国货币流动性过剩之谜[J].宏观经济管理,2007,4.
[29]王信,林艳红.90年代以来我国短期资本流动的变化[J].国际金融研究,2005,12.
[30]王琦.关于我国国际资本流动影响因素计量模型的构建和分析[J].国际金融研究,2006,6.
[31]王世华,何帆.中国短期国际资本流动:现状、流动途径和影响因素[J].世界经济,2007, 7.
[32]伍超明.货币流通速度的再认识--虚拟经济与实体经济关系的分析[J].经济研究,2004,9.
[33]伍志文.货币供应量与物价反常规关系:理论及基于中国的经验分析[J].管理世界,2002,12.
[34]夏斌,陈道富.中国流动性报告[N].上海证券报,2007年7月11日.
[35]谢平,张怀清.融资结构、不良资产与中国M2/GDP[J].经济研究,2007,2.
[36]徐高.中国的资本外逃:从1999年到2006年的月度数据分析[R].CCER Working Paper No.C2007005,2007.
[37]徐长新,张桂霞.国际资本流动对我国银行体系稳定性影响的实证研究[J].亚太经济,2007,1.
[38]姚枝仲.真实贸易顺差,还是热钱?[J].国际经济评论,2008,7-8.
[39]余永定.理解流动性过剩[J].国际经济评论,2007,7-8.
[40]朱民.全球流动性过剩背景下的东亚金融合作[J].外交评论,2007,3.
[41]朱民,马欣.新世纪的全球资源性商品市场--价格飙升、波动、周期和趋势[J].国际金融研究,2006,11.
[42]曾康霖.流动性过剩研究的新视角[J].财贸经济,2007,1.
[43]左小蕾.警惕全球流动性过剩的输入[J].经济界,2006,4.
[44]张斌.货币供求、资产价格与总需求--基于中国事实的理论框架[R].中国社科院世界经济与政治研究所国际金融研究中心Working Paper No.0808,2008.
[45]张明,徐以升.全口径测算中国当前的热钱规模[R].中国社科院国际金融研究中心,Working Paper No.08 14,2008.
[46]张明.当前热钱流入中国的规模与渠道[R].中国社科院国际金融研究中心Working Paper No.0811,2008.
[47]张曙光,张斌.外汇储备持续积累的经济后果[J].经济研究,2007,4.
[48]张谊浩,裴平,方先明.中国的短期国际资本流入及其动机--基于利率、汇率和价格三重套利模型的实证研究[J].国际金融研究,2007,9.
[49]Annick B.Can excess liquidity signal an asset price boom?[R].National Bank of Belgium Working Paper No.117,2007.
[50]Adalid R.and C.Detken,Liquidity shock and asset price boom/bust cycles[R].ECB working paper 732,2007
[51]Bachmeier,Lance and Norman R.Swanson.Predicting Inflation:Does the Quantity Theory Help?[J].Economic Inquiry,2005.43(7):570-585.
[52]Backus,D.,Brainard,W.,Smith,G.and Tobin,J.A Model of the U.S.Financial and Non-Financial Economic Behavior[J].Journal of Money,Credit and Banking.1980,Vol(5).
[53]Barbara Roffia and Andrea Zaghini,Excess Money Growth and Inflation Dynamics [J].International Finance,2007 vol.10(3),241-280.
[54]Bernanke,Ben S.and Mark,Getler.Inside the black box:the credit channel of monetary policy transmission[J].Journal of Economic Perspectives.1999,Vol.9(40).
[55]Bernanke,Ben S.,Mark Gertler,and Simon Gilchrist.The financial acceleration in a quantitative business cycle framework in Jonh B Taylor and Michael Woodford[M].Handbook of Macroecnomics,1999
[56] Bordo, Michael D and Olivier Jeanne. Monetary Policy and Asset Prices: Does Benign Neglect Make Sense. [J]. International Finance, 2002. vol. 12.
[57] Borio C. and P. Lowe. Asset prices, financial and monetary stability: exploring the nexus. [R]. BIS working paper 114.2002.
[58] Borio C. Kennedy N. and Prowse S.D. Exploring aggregate asset price fluctuations across countries. [R]. BIS Economic Paper 40, 1994.
[59] Cecchetti, Stephen; Genberg, Hans; Lipsky, John and Wadhwani, Sushil. Asset prices and central bank policy[R]. International center for monetary and banking studies, 2000
[60] Cody, B.J., Mills, L.O., The role of commodity prices in formulating monetary policy. [J] .Review of Economics and Statistics. 1991, Vol (73), 358-365.
[61] Copeland, M. A Study of the Money Flows in the United States [R]. National Bureau of Economic Research. 1952
[62] Deaton, Augus and Guy Laroque. On the Behavior of Commodity Prices.[J] .Review of Economic Studies ,1992, Vol( 59):1,1-23.
[63] Deaton, Augus and Guy Laroque. Competitive Storage and Commodity Price Dynamics. [J] Journal of Political Economy, 1996, Vol (104):5, 896-923.
[64] Detken C. and F. Smets. Asset price booms and monetary policy. [R]. ECB working paper 364,2004.
[65] Dos Santos and Zezza, A Post-Keynesian Stock-Flow Consistent Macroeconomic Growth Model:Preliminary Results[R], Levy Economics Institute, Working Paper No. 402,2004.
[66] Edward. The outlook of Global excess liquidity [R].Oak A associates Macroeconomics Report, 2006.
[67] Ganley, Joe. Surplus Liquidity: Implications for central banks. [R]. Bank of England Lecture Series No.3.2006.
[68] Gauti E. and Jonathan D. Ostry. Does Excess Liquidity Pose a Threat in Japan? [R]. IMF Policy Discussion Paper, 2005.
[69] Godley, W. and Cripps, F. Macroeconomics[M]. Oxford University Press.1983.
[70] Godley, W. Money and Credit in a Keynesian Model of Income Determination[J]. Cambridge Journal of Economics 1999,23 (4).
[71] Godley, W. and Lavoie, M. Monetary Economics: An Integrated Approach to Credit, Money, Income, Production and Wealth[M] 2007.
[72] Godley, W., and M. Lavoie. Two Country Stock-Flow Consistent Macroeconomics Using a Closed Model within a Dollar Exchange Regime[R]. Cambridge Endowment for Research in Finance, Working Paper 10.2003
[73] Goodhart, Charles and Boris Hofmann. Asset prices and the conduct of monetary policy[R], NETEC, 2001
[74] Gouteron, Sylvain and Daniel S. Excess Monetary Liquidity and Assets Prices. [R]. Bank of France, Preliminary version.3.2005.
[75] Hua, Ping. On Primary Commodity Prices: The Impact of Macroeconomic Monetary Shocks [J] Journal of Policy Modeling, 1998, 20(6), 767-790.
[76] Jeffrey .The Effect of Monetary Policy on Real Commodity Prices [R]. Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, University of Chicago Press.2006.
[77] Joachim Fels. Global excess liquidity overview. [R].Morgan Stanley Macroeconomics Report.2005.
[78] Magnus Saxegaard. Excess Liquidity and Effectiveness of Monetary Policy. Evidence from Sub- Saharan Africa. [R]. IMF Working Paper, WP/06115.2006.
[79] Mishkin, Frederic S. The transmission mechanism and role of asset price in monetary policy[R]. NBER, WP8617,2001
[80] Minsky, H. Stabilizing an Unstable Economy[M]. Yale University Press. 1986
[81] Moudud, J. Finance in a Classical and Harrodian Cyclical Growth Model[R], The Levy Economics Institute. Working Paper No. 290.1999.
[82] Patterson, K.D and Stephenson, M.J. Stock-Flow Consistent Accounting: A Macroeconomic Perspective[J]. The Economic Journal, 1988, Vol.98, Issue 392
[83] Pindyck, Robert S. and Julio J. Rotenberg. The Excess Co-movement of Commodity Prices [J] .Economic Journal, 1990, Vol (100): 403, 1173-1189.
[84] Prema-chandra Athukorala and Sarath Rajapatirana. Capital Inflows and the Real Exchange Rate: a Comparative Study of Asia and Latin America[M]. Blackwell Publishing Ltd. 2003.
[85] Rasmus Rufer and Vivio Stracca, What Is Global Excess Liquidity, And Does It Matter?. [R]. ECB working paper 696.2006.
[86] Renu Kohli, Capital Flows and Their Macroeconomic Effects in India[R]. IMF Working Paper, WP/01/192,2001
[87] Sebastian Becker, Global Liquidity glut and Asset Price Inflation. [R], Deutsche Bank Research, May 27,2007.
[88] Taylor, L. Structuralist Macroeconomics[M]. Basic Books.1983
[89] Tobin, J. Money and the Macroeconomic Process.[J]. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. 1982,Vol(5).
[90] Tobin, J. and W. C. Brainard. Pitfalls in Financial Model building[J], American Economic Review, Paper and Proceedings 58,1968, May, pp. 99-122
[91] Thorsten Polleit and Dieter Gerdesmeier. Measures of excess liquidity. [R]. ECB 2005 Working Paper No. 65.
[92] White W.R. Is price stability enough? [R]. BIS working paper 205.2006
[93] Wynne Godley. Towards a reconstruction of macroeconomics using a Stock-Flow Consistent(SFC) model[R]. Cambridge Endowment for Research in Finance Working Paper.2004..
[94] Yung-Hsiang Ying, Yoonbai Kim. An Empirical Analysis on Capital Flows The Case of Korea and Mexico[J]. Southern Economic Journal, 2001, Vol(67):4, pp.954-968
[95] Zezza and Dos Santos. The role of Monetary Policy in Post-Keynesian Stock-Flow Consistent Macroeconomic Growth Models: Preliminary Results[R]. In M. Lavoie and M. Seccareccia, Central banking in the modern world: Alternative perspectives. Edward Elgar, Aldershot.2007