中国民航业规制对航空运输业效率的影响
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摘要
改革开放后,为了维持航空运输业平稳有效的发展,在规制方面,政府采取了一系列的改革方式。政府对民航运输业的规制改革历经“统—放—乱—统”多个发展阶段,在规制方面不断采取新的措施,但是这些规制引发了许多不尽如人意的结果,要么导致民航运输业全行业亏损,要么损害了消费者利益及整个社会的福利。随着规制方式的不断变革,航空运输业的效率也受到一定程度的影响。
在这样的背景下,航空运输业的效率是个什么情况,政府对对民航业的规制对航空运输业的效率产生了什么影响?带着这些问题,本文将在研究改革开放以来政府对民航业不同规制方式的基础上,结合国外对航空运输业规制方面的研究成果,研究我国目前的民航业规制对航空运输业效率的影响,从而为政府对民航业进行的规制提出自己的思路。
本文的理论基础是规制经济理论和西方经济效率理论,用基于DEA的Malmquist指数法研究1995-2007年间中国航空运输业的效率变化及其影响因素—技术进步和技术效率变化,然后根据民航业对产业主体的改革程度、规制内容的规范程度以及规制法律法规的完善程度3个维度把民航业的规制设定为不同的变量,最后建立计量经济模型,用回归分析的方法估计民航业规制对我国航空运输业效率的影响。
用DEAP2.1软件对航空运输业的投入、产出数据进行测算,得到1995-2007年间中国航空运输业的技术效率、纯技术效率和规模效率,发现1995-2007年间中国航空运输业的纯技术效率一直都比较稳定,而规模效率虽然大体呈上升的趋势但是效率值比较低,除2004年和2007年之外,其他年份都是规模无效的,较低的规模效率是导致综合技术效率比较低的主要原因。由于规模效率相对无效的年份里规模经济没有得到发挥,存在资本投入(如航线里程)和人力投入(如航空运输企业在册员工人数)过多的情况,即这些投入并没有实现该行业经营效率的相应增长,从而产出(如旅客周转量和民航企业业务收入)相对不足,所以在产出不变的情况下,应该最小化投入,尤其是航线里程和航空运输企业在册员工人数的投入量。
通过用软件Eviews3.1对1995-2007年我国航空运输业的效率和1995-2007年我国民航业的规制改革进行回归分析,可以得出：民航业的规制对提高航空运输业的效率有促进作用。航空运输业效率的提高跟民航业产业主体的改革程度、规制内容的规范程度以及规制法律法规的完善程度呈现正相关性。
After the reform and opening policy, Chinese government has adopted many regulations to keep the civil aviation developing steadily and effectively. Up to now. regulatory reform has undergone several steps, including regulation, deregulation, and re-regulation after disorder. Many innovative measures have been carried out. but the consequence is not as satisfactory as we expected, for the reform has brought loss to the whole aviation industry or welfare loss to customers and the society as a whole. Meanwhile, efficiency of air transport industry has been affected to some extent.
Under the circumstance, we bring about questions as follows, whether the efficiency of air transport industry is high or not, and how did the industrial regulations influence it? Based on the research on different regulations after reform and opening policy, this thesis aims to learn from overseas study on aviation reform and to research influences of regulation on air transport industry, so as to search for effective suggestions for government regulations.
Based on theories of regulatory economics and western efficiency economics, this thesis uses DEA-Malmquist index to study changes of efficiency of China's airline industry during 1995 and 2007 and factors (technique improvement and technique efficiency) which affect the general efficiency. By setting different dummy variables according to aviation regulation, we establish a metric-economics model, and in this way, we estimate the effect of aviation regulation on air transport industry.
From the measurement by DEAP2.1, we can find that from 1995 to 2007, pure technique efficiency of China's air transport industry kept relatively steady, while the scale efficiency showed increasing trend on rather low level. The scale efficiencies were inefficient besides 2004 and 2007, therefore, the low scale efficiency was the main reason leading to rather low technology efficiency. During many years, relatively low scale efficiency occurred because economies of scale has not been exploited, under which circumstance there were much more capital investment like routes and labor inputs like registered members than actually needed. In other words, these inputs didn't produce the due quantity of product and service, so the efficiency of this industry didn't increase accordingly and the products like volume of passenger transportation and civil aviation business revenue were inadequate. Under the circumstance of producing constant products, we should minimize volume of inputs, especially the investment of routes and registered labors.
By Eviews3.1, we estimated the efficiency of air transport industry in China during 1995-2007, and then, we did regression between it and the variable aviation regulation in our country. From the final analysis, we can draw the conclusion that aviation regulation plays positive impact on the increase of air transport industrial efficiency. The enhancement of air transport industrial efficiency shows positive correlation with reform in the degree of regulation to industrial units, reform in the extent of regulation content and with the construction of laws and regulations.
在这样的背景下,航空运输业的效率是个什么情况,政府对对民航业的规制对航空运输业的效率产生了什么影响?带着这些问题,本文将在研究改革开放以来政府对民航业不同规制方式的基础上,结合国外对航空运输业规制方面的研究成果,研究我国目前的民航业规制对航空运输业效率的影响,从而为政府对民航业进行的规制提出自己的思路。
本文的理论基础是规制经济理论和西方经济效率理论,用基于DEA的Malmquist指数法研究1995-2007年间中国航空运输业的效率变化及其影响因素—技术进步和技术效率变化,然后根据民航业对产业主体的改革程度、规制内容的规范程度以及规制法律法规的完善程度3个维度把民航业的规制设定为不同的变量,最后建立计量经济模型,用回归分析的方法估计民航业规制对我国航空运输业效率的影响。
用DEAP2.1软件对航空运输业的投入、产出数据进行测算,得到1995-2007年间中国航空运输业的技术效率、纯技术效率和规模效率,发现1995-2007年间中国航空运输业的纯技术效率一直都比较稳定,而规模效率虽然大体呈上升的趋势但是效率值比较低,除2004年和2007年之外,其他年份都是规模无效的,较低的规模效率是导致综合技术效率比较低的主要原因。由于规模效率相对无效的年份里规模经济没有得到发挥,存在资本投入(如航线里程)和人力投入(如航空运输企业在册员工人数)过多的情况,即这些投入并没有实现该行业经营效率的相应增长,从而产出(如旅客周转量和民航企业业务收入)相对不足,所以在产出不变的情况下,应该最小化投入,尤其是航线里程和航空运输企业在册员工人数的投入量。
通过用软件Eviews3.1对1995-2007年我国航空运输业的效率和1995-2007年我国民航业的规制改革进行回归分析,可以得出：民航业的规制对提高航空运输业的效率有促进作用。航空运输业效率的提高跟民航业产业主体的改革程度、规制内容的规范程度以及规制法律法规的完善程度呈现正相关性。
After the reform and opening policy, Chinese government has adopted many regulations to keep the civil aviation developing steadily and effectively. Up to now. regulatory reform has undergone several steps, including regulation, deregulation, and re-regulation after disorder. Many innovative measures have been carried out. but the consequence is not as satisfactory as we expected, for the reform has brought loss to the whole aviation industry or welfare loss to customers and the society as a whole. Meanwhile, efficiency of air transport industry has been affected to some extent.
Under the circumstance, we bring about questions as follows, whether the efficiency of air transport industry is high or not, and how did the industrial regulations influence it? Based on the research on different regulations after reform and opening policy, this thesis aims to learn from overseas study on aviation reform and to research influences of regulation on air transport industry, so as to search for effective suggestions for government regulations.
Based on theories of regulatory economics and western efficiency economics, this thesis uses DEA-Malmquist index to study changes of efficiency of China's airline industry during 1995 and 2007 and factors (technique improvement and technique efficiency) which affect the general efficiency. By setting different dummy variables according to aviation regulation, we establish a metric-economics model, and in this way, we estimate the effect of aviation regulation on air transport industry.
From the measurement by DEAP2.1, we can find that from 1995 to 2007, pure technique efficiency of China's air transport industry kept relatively steady, while the scale efficiency showed increasing trend on rather low level. The scale efficiencies were inefficient besides 2004 and 2007, therefore, the low scale efficiency was the main reason leading to rather low technology efficiency. During many years, relatively low scale efficiency occurred because economies of scale has not been exploited, under which circumstance there were much more capital investment like routes and labor inputs like registered members than actually needed. In other words, these inputs didn't produce the due quantity of product and service, so the efficiency of this industry didn't increase accordingly and the products like volume of passenger transportation and civil aviation business revenue were inadequate. Under the circumstance of producing constant products, we should minimize volume of inputs, especially the investment of routes and registered labors.
By Eviews3.1, we estimated the efficiency of air transport industry in China during 1995-2007, and then, we did regression between it and the variable aviation regulation in our country. From the final analysis, we can draw the conclusion that aviation regulation plays positive impact on the increase of air transport industrial efficiency. The enhancement of air transport industrial efficiency shows positive correlation with reform in the degree of regulation to industrial units, reform in the extent of regulation content and with the construction of laws and regulations.
引文
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3.白杨.我国航空运输服务业的市场结构及价格竞争策略分析[J].经济经纬,2006.1
4.曹梓珞、陈松豪.中国民航业政府规制体制重建[J].广西财经学院学报,2008.7
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8.杨秀云、冯根福.中国民航业市场结构的特征及其有效性分析[J].经济学家,2004.6
9.魏权龄.数据包络分析[M].北京：科学出版社,2004
10. Baron D. Myerson R. Regulating a monopolist with unknown costs [J]. Econometric,1982,50(4):911-930
11. Laffont J J. Rochet R.Regulation of a risk averse firm [J]. Games and Economic Behavior,1998,25(3):149-173
12. Laffont J J, Tirole J. Using cost observation to regulate firms [J]. Journal of Political Economy,1986,94(3):614-641
13. M.A.Utton. The Economics of Regulation Industry [M]. Basil Blackwell,1986.
14. Micael A. Crew, Paul R. Kleindorfer. The Economics of Public Utility Regulation [M]. The Mac-milian Press,1986
15. Mika Goto, Miki Tsutsui. Technical efficiency and impacts of deregulation: Ananalysis of three functions in U.S. [J]. Energy Economics,30 (2008) 15-38
16.朱春阳.创新、规制与效率竞争——2006年中国传媒产业述评[J].新闻大学,2007.2
17. Owen, Braentigam. The Regulation Game:Strategic Uses of the Administrative Process [M]. Cambridge, Mass:ballinger,1978
18. Peltzman S. Toward a more general theory of regulation[J]. Journal of Law and Economics,1976,19(4):211-240
19. Posner, R.A. Theories of Economic regulation[J]. Bell Journal of Economics, Autumn,1974
20. Stigler G J. The theory of economic regulation[J]. The Bell Journal of Economics,1971,20(2):3-21
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