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国际外包的成因及效应研究
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摘要
自20世纪90年代起,随着经济全球化加深,越来越多的国家和企业参与到同一种最终产品的生产过程之中,越来越多的产品由多个国家或者多个企业共同制造,企业的生产越来越趋向于国际化,国际贸易模式也呈现戏剧性的变化,中间投入品贸易、服务贸易成为国际贸易的重要形式和世界贸易增长的重要原因。国际外包是一国的企业或其它机构把过去自行从事的某些生产环节、区段、工序以及生产性服务活动,转移给国外的独立外部企业来承担。国际外包与建立在此基础上的中间投入品贸易、服务贸易,是第二次经济全球化高潮的一个显著特征。
     国际外包现象涉及许多产业,如手机制造业、汽车制造业、计算机制造业,以及信息服务业和商业服务,等等。国外媒体、政界、学者十分关注国际外包现象。研究表明,国际外包使得参与国际外包国家的国民福利与收入分配以及世界贸易的性质、规模等都受到重要影响。国际外包问题的研究,已成为国际经济学的前沿问题之一。
     我国当前经济开放崛起的突出表现之一,是对外贸易的持续高速增长,尤其是加工贸易的快速增长。我国对外贸易的迅速增长和国际外包有着密切关系。中国在全球国际产业转移的浪潮中抓住了机遇,积极承接制造业的国际转移,日益成为世界“制造业基地”。我国加入WTO后,参与国际外包已成为中国企业寻求海外发展,实现战略转型和经营模式创新的一个重要途径。因此,客观理性地分析研究国际外包,认真学习别国的经验,把握国际外包的新动态,探讨中国和其它发展中国家通过国际外包模式获得经济增长的内在机理和成功经验,科学合理地制定相关政策和发展战略,具有十分重要的理论价值和实践意义。
     全文分为七章。
     第一章,导论。本章简要阐述了论文的研究目的和意义、基本框架和主要内容、研究方法和主要创新点。
     第二章,国际外包的相关概念及测度。主要研究国际外包的定义、类型、测度方法。本章首先介绍了国际外包的相关概念,对国际外包的内涵与外延进行了界定,分析了国际外包的不同类型,试图为研究国际外包现象提供一个较准确的概念基础。论文比较了国际外包不同的测度方法,以期研究国际外包的发展趋势。从上个世纪80年代前期以来,全球范围内开始出现前所未有的国际制造外包的扩展过程。自上个世纪90年代起,国际服务外包开始兴起。通过观察国际外包在不同产业的表现,论文为讨论当代国际外包发展的广泛性提供了经验证据。
     第三章,国际外包的成因分析。由于技术创新,特定产品的不同生产环节在空间上具有可分离性。对于特定产品,发展中国家与发达国家在不同环节上具有比较优势,从而使生产成本存在巨大差异,这是国际外包产生的根源。为了降低生产成本,发达国家的企业把其中的劳动密集型环节外包给发展中国家的企业。然而,当这些环节由不同国家的不同企业生产时,对生产活动的协调和组织就会产生国际贸易成本。在经济全球化背景下,企业生产组织形式的选择面临以下问题:自己生产还是“外包”;如果选择外包方式,国内外包还是国际外包?当其它条件不变时,生产成本与贸易成本的相对大小将决定国际外包决策。如果国际外包产生的贸易成本小于企业内部生产的总成本,企业就会选择国际外包。相反,如果国际外包产生的贸易成本大于企业内部生产的总成本,企业就会选择其他方式,降低生产成本。当其它条件不变时,贸易成本越低,国际外包越有可能发展;反之,贸易成本越高,国际外包越有可能受到阻碍。贸易成本与国际外包强度成反向变动。本文从技术进步和制度变迁两方面分析当代国际外包快速发展的根源。运输技术、通信技术的进步,大幅度降低了远距离运输成本和信息成本;贸易自由化、鼓励开放的制度变迁,大幅度降低关税;技术进步和制度变迁,导致贸易成本降低。为了降低成本,发达国家的企业进行国际外包,在全球配置生产环节及服务活动。
     第四章,国际外包的效应分析。本章分析了国际外包的贸易既得效应、技术溢出效应及工资效应。与标准贸易模型相比,由于国际外包将国际分工的对象由最终品层次扩展到中间投入品层次,使贸易利益的范围扩大,参与国际外包的国家有可能达到更高的福利水平。其政策含义:由于国际外包使贸易利益的范围得到扩展,所以随着这一现象的发展,进一步的贸易自由化可以产生比标准贸易模型预测的更大的利益。国际外包也是技术落后国家从技术先进国家获得技术的渠道之一。国际外包技术溢出的渠道主要有三个:示范效应,员工的培训与流动效应,联系效应。通过技术溢出,国际外包可以提高发展中国家的技术水平、组织效率和管理技能不断提高,帮助发展中国家内生化的增长道路。与标准贸易模型不同,关于国际外包对工资影响的理论分析缺乏简单一致的结论。本文建立一个包括技术创新、国际外包在内的南北动态模型,尝试在统一框架中解释分析国际外包对发达国家和发展中国家劳动市场的影响。国际外包对工资的影响可能依赖于参与外包的各国的要素禀赋、产出模式、具体的国际外包情况以及该国在特定生产环节的要素密集度等因素。
     第五章,中国承接国际外包的现状与存在的问题。本章描述了中国承接国际外包的现状,在此基础上探讨中国存在的问题。中国在参与国际制造外包表现出色,承接国际服务外包领域已经取得一定的成就。虽然我国参与国际服务外包已取得初步成绩,然而现实发展水平无论与中国参与国际制造外包相比较,还是与承接国际服务外包比较成功的印度等国比较,都存在相对不足。中国在经济管制、行业协会、人才培养、优惠措施等方面政策调整滞后,制约了国际外包的发展。
     第六章,政策与建议。在第五章的基础上,本章提出中国应对经济全球化下国际外‘包的战略选择和政策建议。中国不仅从一个制造业大国发展成为制造业强国,成为世界级的先进制造业中心之一,还要抓住机遇,发展成为服务业大国,成为国际服务外包中心,增强综合国力,进一步提高国际地位。中国应把承接国际服务外包与促进国内制造业升级、国内服务业发展目标结合起来,与中国扩大就业和经济结构调整目标结合起来。针对承接国际外包的经济属性以及我国这一领域发展现状和问题,从减少管制扭曲、培育市场力量、兼顾溢出效应、着眼国际竞争等多方位角度考虑,论文提出相应的政策与建议。
     第七章,结论与展望。本章首先总结论文的主要观点,并指出论文存在的不足,旨在提出国际外包领域的未来研究方向。
Since the 1990s, with the development of economic globalization, more and more countries and firms are involved in the process of production of some final goods. It has formed the network of international production which multinational firms lead and many suppliers exist together on the basis of vertical international division. With the development of the network of international production, the pattern of international trade has changed dramatically. The growing shares of international trade flows consist of intermediate and unfinished goods shipped from one country to another to combine manufacturing or services activities at home with those performed abroad. Trade in parts and components, in middle products or in fragments of final goods and trade in service have exhibited a dynamism exceeding that of trade in final goods.
     The network of international production has been a new pattern of international division, international production and trade. The international outsourcing is an important way of the configuration of the productive structure.
     It is a situation where the firm requires another independent foreign enterprise to undertake the production or carry out the processing of a material, component, service, part or subassembly for it according to the specifications or plans provided by the firm offering the contract. International outsourcing involves setting up production operations in different countries to serve various markets, or buying and assembling components, parts or finished products world-wide. One distinctive feature of the second wave of economic globalization is the rapid growth of international outsourcing and trade.
     International outsourcing has emerged in a manifold of industries, including services and products:mobile phones, cars, computers, computer and information services and other business services, and so on. International Outsourcing has received an enormous amount of attention in the media, political circles and foreign scholars in recent times. International outsourcing has a profound effect on national welfare, income distribution as well as the nature and volume of world trade. The study of international outsourcing has become the hot topic. Research on international outsourcing has expanded the study field of international economics.
     China is not only a developing country, but also one of the biggest countries in world trade. The opening to the outside world has been more than 20 years. The rapid growth of foreign trade closely correlates with international outsourcing in China. China now faces a series of problems of economic structure transfer. International outsourcing is an important way for China to get involved in the international system of labor division. Based on analysis and comparison, proposals have been put forward concerning China's participation in international outsourcing. So study of international outsourcing is important not only in the value of theory, but also in its significance.
     This paper aims to examine the extent, trends, causes and effects of international outsourcing, and its implications for analyzing China's trade patterns and economic development. The paper is divided into 7 chapters, is organized as follows.
     Chapter 1 describes the aim and significance, methods of study, the frame and contents of the paper, and so on.
     Chapter 2 makes a general description of international outsourcing, including the definition, types of the international manufacturing outsourcing, and measurements, nature of the international manufacturing outsourcing and the international service outsourcing. The paper develops a set of stylized facts describing the trends in the international manufacturing outsourcing and the international service outsourcing to form the basis of a framework. It shows the growing trend of these two forms of international service outsourcing. At last, it analyzes industrial distributions and regional distributions of the international outsourcing.
     Chapter 3 explores in more detail possible causes of the increased degree of the international outsourcing now observed in world markets. The paper sets out a theoretical framework to analyze the sources and basis of international outsourcing, points out that technological revolution, institutional transfer are the essential reasons.
     For some multi-fragment goods, technological revolution makes them separate in the space. Alternatively or additionally different fragments may require inputs in different proportions. For different fragments, there are different comparative advantages of the developed counties and developing counties. If relative factor supplies and prices differ from region to region leading to the more labor-intensive fragment being located in the more labor-abundant regions, and the more capital-intensive fragment in other regions. It is the source of international outsourcing. From a theoretical point of view, in fact, the range of the possible ways in which firms organize production is composite:a firm producing a final good for which intermediate products are needed can choose to produce its inputs in-house (thus vertically integrating production), to outsource production of the same inputs to intermediate suppliers, themselves possibly located at home or in a foreign country, or to de-localize altogether the production of inputs in a subsidiary located in a foreign country, through a so-called vertical FDI. The decision of the international outsourcing may be driven by the trade-off between the trade costs and production costs. Under the conditions of the others keeping invariable, trade costs and international outsourcing negatively relate. If trade costs exceed costs of production, the firm makes a decision of international outsourcing. If trade costs do not exceed costs of production, the firm makes a decision of the others. The less trade costs are, the more international outsourcing is. On the contrary, the more trade costs are, the less international outsourcing is.
     The process of international outsourcing has clearly been enabled by significant technological innovations and institutional transfer. Dramatic reductions in costs of telecommunications, the internet and widespread low cost usage of computers led to the advent of the services outsourcing. Plunging international costs of telecommunication and developments of FAX and internet technology have allowed the production process to be widespread on a global basis with much less attention paid to national boundaries. The substantial reductions in international trade costs as well as increasing liberalization have probably played a significant role in international outsourcing. The international level the efforts to liberalize barriers to trade can be expected to encourage the tendency towards greater international outsourcing. Recent improvements in transportation and communications technology and economic globalization allow firms to allocate operations all over the world to lower production costs. With the rising domestic production costs in the developed countries such as wages and falling trade costs such as transport costs, tariffs and communications costs, the international outsourcing has met a rapid growth.
     Chapter 4 analyzes the effects of the international outsourcing on the gains of trade, technological spillovers, the distribution of income. The paper uses a simple H-O model to get the point that the countries involved in international outsourcing can get surplus, which will provide the theoretic basis of undertaking international outsourcing. The international outsourcing must systematically expand what the world is able potentially to do with its given resources should mean that, again, on average international outsourcing will be beneficial. The paper examines positive international outsourcing spillovers working through these channels, including the demonstration effect, labor training-turnover effect and linkage effect. It explores factors driving the degree of vertical spillovers from international outsourcing.
     The paper develops a North-South product cycle model of endogenous growth without scale effects, where the rates of innovation, outsourcing, and skill acquisition are endogenously determined to investigate the effects of international outsourcing on wage inequality in both North and the South. It considers two sets of exogenous events that increase the extent of international outsourcing. When increased international outsourcing is driven by technological change, the impact on the wage differential between skilled and unskilled labor in the North and the South is ambiguous. Whereas if international outsourcing is driven by policy changes such as production subsidies by the South or production taxes by the North, the wage gap in both economies widens. The rise in wage inequality, in turn, induces a higher fraction of the population to upgrade their skills. In the case of international outsourcing the paper do not even have a simple result like Stolper-Samuelson. The effect of international outsourcing on wages depends on the nature of the industry.
     Chapter5 makes a description of china's status quo of undertaking international outsourcing, points out the disadvantages. With further reform and opening up, the trend of China's international outsourcing undertaking becomes more and more obvious these years. China grasps the opportunity of the transfer of global manufacturing industry and has made a great progress in the process of manufacturing outsourcing development. It has been seen that China is rising as the world's manufacturer. In the same time, China makes a progress in the process of undertaking international service outsourcing.
     However, compared to undertaking international manufacturing outsourcing by China, or compared to other successful countries, such as India, there are the disadvantages and shortages of undertaking international service outsourcing by China. The lags of polices, for example, training of human resources, economic regulations, discourage the development of international outsourcing.
     Chapter6 comes up with strategies of enhancing international outsourcing on the basis of Chapter5, gives some suggestions and policy design on how to cope with the trend of international outsourcing.
     Finally, chapter7 wraps up and provides some basic conclusions and directions for further research.
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