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不同业务的双边市场平台博弈研究
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摘要
互联网信息服务业日益成为大国博弈的重要领域。中国的互联网信息服务业21世纪以来取得了重要的发展,规模已经居于全球首位。但是中国的互联网信息服务业还存在着“产业结构低端化导致利润微薄”、“产品和服务模仿较多自主创新较少”、和“产业生态脆弱”等问题。近年来,除了继续强调技术创新外,从产业经济理论角度对其进行研究,寻求提升产业竞争力的途径,也引起了学界和产业界的重视。其中网络经济理论、注意力经济理论和双边市场理论是比较有代表性的理论。
     其中双边市场理论是21世纪才逐渐发展起来的一套理论,该理论研究的是一种包括一个居中平台和两个交叉补贴市场的市场结构。双边市场理论解释了信用卡市场、房屋中介市场和互联网信息服务市场中“免费服务”存在的机制,已经成为产业经济学研究的又一热点。在双边市场理论中,平台博弈是研究的重点之一,现有的平台博弈文献集中于研究“相同业务的双边市场平台博弈”,但是现实中还存在着“不同业务的双边市场平台博弈”,国内外文献对其研究还不多见。不同业务的双边市场平台博弈的机制是什么?哪些因素对其影响最大?这种博弈对产业界有何意义?都是需要深入探究的问题。
     本文聚焦于不同业务的双边市场平台博弈,在logistic增长曲线的基础上,通过建立微分博弈模型并利用Matlab软件进行数字模拟,对其博弈机制、影响参数进行分析,找出了对长期博弈均衡影响最大的参数。随后,通过案例研究对博弈分析结果加以验证,得到以下结论:(一)不同业务的双边市场平台博弈在现实中广泛存在,其博弈机制实质上是注意力竞争。因此可以将本文建立的两个模型:“新平台分流模型”和“大平台入侵模型”合称为“注意力替代模型”。(二)通过对注意力替代模型中不同参数的模拟,发现影响其长期博弈结果的主要因素有三个,一是新业务的潜在规模、二是交叉网络外部性、三是大平台的入侵时机。
     在此基础上,本文对不同业务的双边市场平台博弈模型的研究结果进行了理论拓展,将研究结果应用到“注意力经济理论”的深化之中,建议从双边市场的新视角对注意力经济进行研究。注意力替代模型解释了不同注意力之间竞争的可能性和影响这种竞争的关键因素,综合这些因素,通过借鉴产业经济学中规模经济和范围经济的概念,本文提出了注意力规模经济、注意力范围经济、注意力市场规模和注意力市场份额四个概念,并提出了对注意力市场规模和注意力市场份额量化研究的一个构想。
     更进一步,本文对不同业务双边市场平台博弈模型的实际应用进行了分析,以互联网信息服务业为例,探讨了该理论对中国互联网信息服务业强化核心竞争力,提升产业层次的指导意义。首先,指出互联网产业由于具有注意力规模经济和注意力范围经济的特征,赢家通吃的概率高于传统产业。产业中往往只有数一数二的企业能够生存,而且利润通常集中在第一大企业手中。其次,指出对于互联网信息服务业中的企业,出于争夺注意力市场份额的需要,不同业务的相互入侵已经不仅仅是扩大收入的手段,而且是注意力经济条件下企业生存的必然选择。根据本文博弈模型研究的相关结论,互联网企业要获得行业领导地位并长久保持领先,需要依次考虑以下三个因素,一是选择潜在用户规模大,用户在线时间长的业务;二是在新业务发展初期要致力于扩大规模,并率先达到业务成熟期;三是利用双边市场获得收入现金流。
     为提升中国互联网信息服务业的产业层次,加强核心竞争力,可以提出以下政策建议:中国政府应该从四个方面加强对互联网信息服务业的支持,第一是选择“潜在注意力规模”较大的产业进行培育;第二是利用“中国是全球最大新兴市场”这个有利条件;第三是对于国内龙头企业重点关照,慎用反垄断措施;第四是鼓励中国龙头企业走向世界。通过这些措施,促进互联网信息服务业成为中国经济的有力推手。
The two-sided markets theory developed in the21st century.This theory researches a certain market structure involved a middle platform and two cross subsidizing agents. The two-sided markets theory has successfully explained the mechanism of freeconomics in the creadit card market,in the real estate market,and in the internet market.And it has been one of the most interesting sectors of Industrial Organization. Platform competition is an important content of the two-sided markets theory. Existing literature focus on the platform competition involving the same business.Research on platform competition involving different kinds of business is seldom.And the platforms running different kind of business competition counts in real. It is important to solve these problems:what is the mechanism of platform competition involving different kinds of business? Which parameters play an important role on this competition?
     In this article we have developed a differential game model based on logistic growth curve to study platforms competition involving different kinds of business in two-sided markets. Then we use Matlab to simulate mumerical solutions to find out key parameters engaged with the long term balance. We have employed case study to test the model and have drawn two conclusions:(1) Platforms running different kinds of business competition counts in real. Attention substitution plays an important role in this competition. These models are called attention substitution models and can be divided into two kinds:new platform substitution and big platform invasion.(2)We have found three key parameters that have been connected with the long term balance, potential scale,cross network externality,and the timing of entry.
     These models and exsiting two-sided market theories set up a new perspective of attention economy. In most cases attention economy is based on two-sided market structure.And the attention could be converted into cash in two-sided markets. The possibilities and key parameters concerned about the different kinds of attention competition have been illustrated in this article. We have brought two new concepts base on these parameters:attention economy of scale, attention economy of scope. We have developed a way to calculate the attention scale and the market share of attention.
     In further,we have studied evidence from the internet industry and found that winner has taken all in this area.The enterprise has been ranked first earn most profit. In order to keeping the attention market shares companies in the internet industry they should consider three factors:(1)selecting business with big potential scale to enter (2)reaching maturity stage as soon as possible (3)achieving cash flow balance by two-sided markets.
引文
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