房地产产业属性及产业关联度研究
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摘要
房地产业不仅能带动相关产业的发展，还能提供就业机会、带动城市化，从而促进产业间的协调和稳定。房地产业的产业关联度揭示房地产业与其它产业的内在联系，表明房地产业为前向关联产业提供产品和服务，对后向关联产业的依赖程度以及对环向关联产业既提供产品和服务同时又对它们产生依赖，房地产业的波及效应表现为对社会经济的影响。
首先描述房地产及房地产业含义、成长历程、发展概况和产业属性，提出产业关联及产业关联模型的含义，明确房地产业的关联特性，研究房地产业的产业关联度并选取东、中、西部的代表省市上海、湖北、重庆三个地区的房地产业进行分析比较，最后分析了房地产业的波及效应并提出相关政策建议。
关于房地产业的产业关联度研究，分别对1997、2002、2007年房地产业的前向直接和完全关联产业、后向直接和完全关联产业、环向关联产业做了详尽的对比分析，得出我国房地产业的发展主要依托第三产业，逐渐脱离对重工业的依赖，且与其他产业的关联程度趋于平均水平，特别是与金融业的关联关系重要程度有所下降。同时，房地产业与其他产业多为双向关联关系，说明房地产业与其他产业的联系随着经济的发展而有所改变，同时还说明社会各产业间的联系变得紧密、深入，社会的发展需要各产业相互协调。
关于房地产业关联度的地区比较，选取典型地区（东、中、西部）的房地产业作为研究对象，探讨房地产业对区域经济发展的带动作用，并对比分析房地产业关联度，从而剖析地区差异产生的原因。通过分析全国以及上海、湖北、重庆经济发展和房地产业的发展来说明我国不同地区房地产业的发展水平是不同的，不同地区房地产业的发展与经济发展存在着一定的关系，经济发展较快较好的地区，房地产业的发展也较好，经济发展滞后的地区，房地产业的发展也相对落后。
关于房地产业的波及效应，选择房地产业对城市化的促进，借助计量经济软件Eviews6.0，分别对我国1994—2012年间的城市化率与商品房销售面积和房地产投资，从基本线性关系和VAR模型分析与协整检验两个角度进行了实证研究。研究表明，房地产业和城市化水平正处于不断上升阶段。通过对房地产投资增速和城市化率增速的实证研究发现，我国的房地产增长速度和城市化增长速度呈现出某种程度的相关性，且前者的增速快过后者的增速，两者之间显示出相互促进的因果关系。而商品房销售面积增长率与城市化率，二者保持相对稳定的上升趋势，且相关性显著。
最后用就业产值系数分析房地产业的关联产业对社会就业的吸纳能力，同时通过计算就业产值弹性系数来分析房地产业间接带动的社会就业，研究表明房地产业与全部行业都有着前后向关联关系，能通过其后向关联关系来拉动大部分产业就业，但对少数产业的就业有负面影响，且随着房地产业增加值的增长引起的就业增长不大。
Real estate industry not only drives its development-related industries but alsoimproves employment opportunities and promotes urbanization. The real estate industrycorrelative degree reveals the intrinsic link between the very industry and others,indicating that the real estate industry provides products and services to forward relatedindustries, depends on the backword related industries, and shows a bidirectionalbehavior to the completely related industries. The real estate industry exerts the rippleeffect on the socio-economic areas.
The paper firstly presents the basic concepts of the real estate industry, the growthprocess, the development abstract as well as the industry characteristics. Then it clarifiesthe correlation properties of the real estate industry, and researches on the industryrelated degree concerning three representative city, Shanghai (eastern China), Hubei(central China) and Chongqing (western China) respectively. It compares among thereal estate industry of the three sample cities, and at last analyzes the spreading effectsof the real estate industry, providing conclusive political suggestions.
For the research of the real estate industry association degree, it makes a thoroughanalysis of backward directly related industries, backward completely related industries,forward directly related industries, forward completely related industries as well asround related industries of the real estate industry in1997,2002and2007. From the data,it can be deduced that the development of Chinese real estate industry is mainly aboutthat of tertiary industry in recent years and it is gradually getting away from thedependence on heavy industry. Besides, the association degree between the real estateindustry and other industries tends to drop to an average level. In particular, theimportance of the association between financial and real estate has declined. Meanwhile,the association of real estate and other industries is a mostly two-way relationship,which illustrates that the linkage between the real estate industry and others has beenchanging along with the economic development, the relationship among socialindustries are becoming close and in-depth, and social development needs coordinateddevelopment of all industries.
For the regional comparison of real estate correlation degree, it analyzes thedriving effects of the real estate on regional economics among typical regions, namelythe East, the Middle and the West in China. Besides, it performs contrastive analysis on regional real estate correlation degrees, and concludes reasons of the disparity. Throughthe analysis of economic development of whole China and of Shanghai, Hubei,Chongqing as well as the analysis of the development of real estate over the years, itillustrates that there are certain regional differences in the development of Chinese realestate industry. And there is a certain relationship between real estate development andeconomic development in various regions. In the regions where economic developfaster and better; the development of real estate industry is also more prominent whilein the regions which are lagging behind in economic development, the real estateindustry is relatively backward.
For the issue of real estate industry promoting the urbanization process and itsspreading effects, it does empirical studies with econometric software Eviews6.0onurbanization rate, commercial housing sales and real estate investment during1994to2012in China, doing empirical researches on two perspectives; basic linear relations,VAR model and Co-integration Test. Studies show that the level of Chinese real estateindustry and of urbanization is rising. For the growth speed of real estate investment andurbanization rate, the former is faster than the latter. It shows a certain correlation, forwhich they present a mutually promoted causality relationship. For sale area ofcommercial housing and the urbanization rate, both of them maintain a relatively steadyupward trend and present a significant correlation.
Finally, it analyzes the social employment absorption capacity of the real estaterelated industries by employment output value coefficient. At the same time, this papertries to find out social employment levels indirectly driven by the real estate industry bymeans of calculating elasticity coefficient of employment output value. The study showsthat the real estate industry and other industries have both forward and backwardlinkages, owning to which a majority of industries can be promoted. Nonetheless thereal estate industry exerts negative effects on minor industries, inducing relativelymodest employment growth as the added value of real estate industry going up.
首先描述房地产及房地产业含义、成长历程、发展概况和产业属性，提出产业关联及产业关联模型的含义，明确房地产业的关联特性，研究房地产业的产业关联度并选取东、中、西部的代表省市上海、湖北、重庆三个地区的房地产业进行分析比较，最后分析了房地产业的波及效应并提出相关政策建议。
关于房地产业的产业关联度研究，分别对1997、2002、2007年房地产业的前向直接和完全关联产业、后向直接和完全关联产业、环向关联产业做了详尽的对比分析，得出我国房地产业的发展主要依托第三产业，逐渐脱离对重工业的依赖，且与其他产业的关联程度趋于平均水平，特别是与金融业的关联关系重要程度有所下降。同时，房地产业与其他产业多为双向关联关系，说明房地产业与其他产业的联系随着经济的发展而有所改变，同时还说明社会各产业间的联系变得紧密、深入，社会的发展需要各产业相互协调。
关于房地产业关联度的地区比较，选取典型地区（东、中、西部）的房地产业作为研究对象，探讨房地产业对区域经济发展的带动作用，并对比分析房地产业关联度，从而剖析地区差异产生的原因。通过分析全国以及上海、湖北、重庆经济发展和房地产业的发展来说明我国不同地区房地产业的发展水平是不同的，不同地区房地产业的发展与经济发展存在着一定的关系，经济发展较快较好的地区，房地产业的发展也较好，经济发展滞后的地区，房地产业的发展也相对落后。
关于房地产业的波及效应，选择房地产业对城市化的促进，借助计量经济软件Eviews6.0，分别对我国1994—2012年间的城市化率与商品房销售面积和房地产投资，从基本线性关系和VAR模型分析与协整检验两个角度进行了实证研究。研究表明，房地产业和城市化水平正处于不断上升阶段。通过对房地产投资增速和城市化率增速的实证研究发现，我国的房地产增长速度和城市化增长速度呈现出某种程度的相关性，且前者的增速快过后者的增速，两者之间显示出相互促进的因果关系。而商品房销售面积增长率与城市化率，二者保持相对稳定的上升趋势，且相关性显著。
最后用就业产值系数分析房地产业的关联产业对社会就业的吸纳能力，同时通过计算就业产值弹性系数来分析房地产业间接带动的社会就业，研究表明房地产业与全部行业都有着前后向关联关系，能通过其后向关联关系来拉动大部分产业就业，但对少数产业的就业有负面影响，且随着房地产业增加值的增长引起的就业增长不大。
Real estate industry not only drives its development-related industries but alsoimproves employment opportunities and promotes urbanization. The real estate industrycorrelative degree reveals the intrinsic link between the very industry and others,indicating that the real estate industry provides products and services to forward relatedindustries, depends on the backword related industries, and shows a bidirectionalbehavior to the completely related industries. The real estate industry exerts the rippleeffect on the socio-economic areas.
The paper firstly presents the basic concepts of the real estate industry, the growthprocess, the development abstract as well as the industry characteristics. Then it clarifiesthe correlation properties of the real estate industry, and researches on the industryrelated degree concerning three representative city, Shanghai (eastern China), Hubei(central China) and Chongqing (western China) respectively. It compares among thereal estate industry of the three sample cities, and at last analyzes the spreading effectsof the real estate industry, providing conclusive political suggestions.
For the research of the real estate industry association degree, it makes a thoroughanalysis of backward directly related industries, backward completely related industries,forward directly related industries, forward completely related industries as well asround related industries of the real estate industry in1997,2002and2007. From the data,it can be deduced that the development of Chinese real estate industry is mainly aboutthat of tertiary industry in recent years and it is gradually getting away from thedependence on heavy industry. Besides, the association degree between the real estateindustry and other industries tends to drop to an average level. In particular, theimportance of the association between financial and real estate has declined. Meanwhile,the association of real estate and other industries is a mostly two-way relationship,which illustrates that the linkage between the real estate industry and others has beenchanging along with the economic development, the relationship among socialindustries are becoming close and in-depth, and social development needs coordinateddevelopment of all industries.
For the regional comparison of real estate correlation degree, it analyzes thedriving effects of the real estate on regional economics among typical regions, namelythe East, the Middle and the West in China. Besides, it performs contrastive analysis on regional real estate correlation degrees, and concludes reasons of the disparity. Throughthe analysis of economic development of whole China and of Shanghai, Hubei,Chongqing as well as the analysis of the development of real estate over the years, itillustrates that there are certain regional differences in the development of Chinese realestate industry. And there is a certain relationship between real estate development andeconomic development in various regions. In the regions where economic developfaster and better; the development of real estate industry is also more prominent whilein the regions which are lagging behind in economic development, the real estateindustry is relatively backward.
For the issue of real estate industry promoting the urbanization process and itsspreading effects, it does empirical studies with econometric software Eviews6.0onurbanization rate, commercial housing sales and real estate investment during1994to2012in China, doing empirical researches on two perspectives; basic linear relations,VAR model and Co-integration Test. Studies show that the level of Chinese real estateindustry and of urbanization is rising. For the growth speed of real estate investment andurbanization rate, the former is faster than the latter. It shows a certain correlation, forwhich they present a mutually promoted causality relationship. For sale area ofcommercial housing and the urbanization rate, both of them maintain a relatively steadyupward trend and present a significant correlation.
Finally, it analyzes the social employment absorption capacity of the real estaterelated industries by employment output value coefficient. At the same time, this papertries to find out social employment levels indirectly driven by the real estate industry bymeans of calculating elasticity coefficient of employment output value. The study showsthat the real estate industry and other industries have both forward and backwardlinkages, owning to which a majority of industries can be promoted. Nonetheless thereal estate industry exerts negative effects on minor industries, inducing relativelymodest employment growth as the added value of real estate industry going up.
引文
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