基于专利分析的技术成熟度预测方法研究与实现
摘要
产品技术成熟度预测可以帮助企业寻找自身差距,有的放矢地提高自己的技术水平,制定科学的产品开发和技术革新战略,寻找创新点。产品技术成熟度是企业制定产品开发和技术革新战略首先要考虑的重要指标,也是进行技术贸易的重要参考尺度,还是某些职能部门进行技术研发立项的重要依据。因此对产品技术成熟度的预测方法的研究是有其必要性的。
现存技术成熟度预测方法与模型往往在预测结果的准确性,实际可操作性等方面都存在一些问题。本课题综合分析TRIZ理论及国内外产品技术成熟与预测的方法,针对目前成熟度预测方法存在的不足之处,在研究产品功能与技术生命周期的关系及其支持向量回归机理论的基础上提出了一种成熟度的预测模型。
本课题在研究需求对产品技术发展起到决定性作用的基础上,分析论证了产品功能及与技术生命周期的关系;提出了产品功能等级、质量的概念,应用QFD理论中需求、产品功能与产品结构的对应关系实现了对产品功能等级、质量的评价;专利记录了产品技术的发展史,本课题定义专利所改进的功能为专利功能,提出了基于支持向量机的技术成熟度预测模型,综合运用专利数量、专利级别、专利功能级别及专利功能评价值与功能等级期望值的关系四个指标来进行成熟度的预测。通过判断近三年来技术相关领域内的平均水平上的专利功能级别与产品功能平均质量,应用产品技术成熟度预测模型来预测技术的成熟度。
最后,通过Visual C#开发环境实现产品技术成熟度预测系统,该系统实现了以上技术成熟度预测模型。在曲线拟合中实现了支持向量机规律理论。并应用该系统对电冰箱的技术成熟度进行了预测,实验表明在可操作性、客观性、准确性等方面都取的了良好的效果。
the technology maturity help companies to find their weakness, improve their skills targeted, develop a scientific strategy for product development and technological innovation, and search for innovation. Maturity of the product is the the first important indicator to be considered for enterprise which intent to make development strategies of product development and technological innovation.this also is the reference scale of technical trade, or some of the functions for some partment to research and development project. Therefore, maturity of product technology forecasting research is definitely necessary.
The existing technology maturity mapping model has some problem in the accuracy of the results and the actual operational aspects. We make a comprehensive analysis of the TRIZ theory and foreign and domestic methods of echnology maturity mapping. Aiming to resolve the existing inadequacies of the current methods, through researching user needs, based on the relationship between technology life cycle and user needs we proposed a model of technology maturity mapping.we analysised and demonstrated the importance of user needs and researched their relationship with the technology life cycle based on the the hierarchy of needs and QFD theory.
Based on researching the role of needs in technology development,we analysis and appraisal the product function and the relationship to the technology life cycle; Applicated of QFD theory evaluated the quality of function of porduct. Patent records the history of the product technology development, we definited the function improved by this patnet as the function of the patent.Based on the function of patent we proposed the.technology maturity prediction model, the model use the number of patents, patent level, functional level of patents and the relationship between patent function evaluation and the expected evaluation of the level of maturity as four indicators for the prediction. By judging the average level and quality of function of all the technology-related patents in the past three years, then applications technology maturity prediction model to predict the maturity of the technology.
Finally, using the Visual C# development environment, we realized the technical maturity prediction system that implements the above forecasting model for technology maturity mapping. We have implemented Curve fitting using the support vector machine theory. And we use this system mapping the technology maturity of the refrigerators, experiments show that have taken a good effect in the aspect of the feasibility, objectivity, accuracy….
现存技术成熟度预测方法与模型往往在预测结果的准确性,实际可操作性等方面都存在一些问题。本课题综合分析TRIZ理论及国内外产品技术成熟与预测的方法,针对目前成熟度预测方法存在的不足之处,在研究产品功能与技术生命周期的关系及其支持向量回归机理论的基础上提出了一种成熟度的预测模型。
本课题在研究需求对产品技术发展起到决定性作用的基础上,分析论证了产品功能及与技术生命周期的关系;提出了产品功能等级、质量的概念,应用QFD理论中需求、产品功能与产品结构的对应关系实现了对产品功能等级、质量的评价;专利记录了产品技术的发展史,本课题定义专利所改进的功能为专利功能,提出了基于支持向量机的技术成熟度预测模型,综合运用专利数量、专利级别、专利功能级别及专利功能评价值与功能等级期望值的关系四个指标来进行成熟度的预测。通过判断近三年来技术相关领域内的平均水平上的专利功能级别与产品功能平均质量,应用产品技术成熟度预测模型来预测技术的成熟度。
最后,通过Visual C#开发环境实现产品技术成熟度预测系统,该系统实现了以上技术成熟度预测模型。在曲线拟合中实现了支持向量机规律理论。并应用该系统对电冰箱的技术成熟度进行了预测,实验表明在可操作性、客观性、准确性等方面都取的了良好的效果。
the technology maturity help companies to find their weakness, improve their skills targeted, develop a scientific strategy for product development and technological innovation, and search for innovation. Maturity of the product is the the first important indicator to be considered for enterprise which intent to make development strategies of product development and technological innovation.this also is the reference scale of technical trade, or some of the functions for some partment to research and development project. Therefore, maturity of product technology forecasting research is definitely necessary.
The existing technology maturity mapping model has some problem in the accuracy of the results and the actual operational aspects. We make a comprehensive analysis of the TRIZ theory and foreign and domestic methods of echnology maturity mapping. Aiming to resolve the existing inadequacies of the current methods, through researching user needs, based on the relationship between technology life cycle and user needs we proposed a model of technology maturity mapping.we analysised and demonstrated the importance of user needs and researched their relationship with the technology life cycle based on the the hierarchy of needs and QFD theory.
Based on researching the role of needs in technology development,we analysis and appraisal the product function and the relationship to the technology life cycle; Applicated of QFD theory evaluated the quality of function of porduct. Patent records the history of the product technology development, we definited the function improved by this patnet as the function of the patent.Based on the function of patent we proposed the.technology maturity prediction model, the model use the number of patents, patent level, functional level of patents and the relationship between patent function evaluation and the expected evaluation of the level of maturity as four indicators for the prediction. By judging the average level and quality of function of all the technology-related patents in the past three years, then applications technology maturity prediction model to predict the maturity of the technology.
Finally, using the Visual C# development environment, we realized the technical maturity prediction system that implements the above forecasting model for technology maturity mapping. We have implemented Curve fitting using the support vector machine theory. And we use this system mapping the technology maturity of the refrigerators, experiments show that have taken a good effect in the aspect of the feasibility, objectivity, accuracy….
引文
[1]张换高,赵文燕,檀润华.基于专利分析的产品技术成熟度预测技术及其软件开发[ J ].中国机械工程, 2006, 17 ( 8) : 823～827.
[2] Vapnik V N.The nature of statistical learning theory[M] Heidelberg,Germany:Springer Verlag,1995.
[3]刘玉琴,朱东华,吕琳.基于文本挖掘技术的产品技术成熟度预测[J].计算机集成制造系统, 2008,(03) .
[4].V.N.Vapnik,A.J,Chervonenkis.Ordered risk minimization (I and II) ,Automation and Remote Control.34.1974,1226-1235 and 1403-1412.
[5] V.N.Vapnik.Estimation of dependences based on empirical data.Soringer-Verlag,Berlin,1982.
[6]于慧伶.利用TRIZ理论S曲线进化法则的人造板技术发展预测[J].林业科技, 2009,(04) .
[7]杨云霞. TRIZ理论应用中的专利侵权风险分析.情报杂志.第28卷第8期,2009(08).
[8]朱龙英.公理化设计理论及其应用研究:[博士论文].南京航空航天大学,2004
[9] Frauens M W. Improved Selection of TechnicallyAttractive Projects Using Knowledge Managementand Net Interactive Tools: [Ph. D. Dessertation].Cambridge: MIT, 2000.
[10] P.-A. Verhaegen, J. D'hondt, J. Vertommen, S. Dewulf, J. R. Duflou.Interrelating. Products through Properties via Patent Analysis.
[11] Loh Han Tong, He Cong, Shen Lixiang.Automatic classification of patent documents for TRIZ users.
[12] Loh Han Tong , He Cong, Shen Lixiang. Automatic classification of patent documents for TRIZ users. World Patent Information.2006,p 6–13.
[13] P.-A. Verhaegen, J. D hondt, J. Vertommen, S. Dewulf, J.R. Duflou. Relating properties and functions from patents to TRIZ trends. CIRP Journal of Manufacturing Science and Technology.2008.
[14] Cascini, Russo, Zini. Computer-Aided Patent Analysis: Finding Invention Peculiarities. 2007. Mann, D.L. Hands on Systematic Innovation. 2002.
[15] Gaetano Cascini , Manuel Zini. Measuring patent similarity by comparing inventions functional trees. University of Florence, Italy.2008.
[16] P.-A. Verhaegen,J. D'hondt, J. Vertommen, S. Dewulf, et al. Interrelating Products through Properties via Patent Analysis.CIRP Design Conference,2009
[17] Yanhong Liang, Dequan Gan, Yingchun Guo, and Peng Zhang.Computer-Aided Analysis of Patents for Product Technology Maturity Forecasting.International Federation for Information Processing.2009
[18] Loh Han Tong, He Cong, Shen Lixiang.Automatic classi?ation of patent documents for TRIZ users.World Patent Information,28 (2006) 6–13
[19] He Cong , Loh Han Tong.Grouping of TRIZ Inventive Principles to facilitate automatic patent classi?ation.Expert Systems with Applications.2008
[20] P.-A. Verhaegen, J. D’hondt, J. Vertommen, S. Dewulf, J.R. Du?u.Relating properties and functions from patents to TRIZ trends.CIRP Journal of Manufacturing Science and Technology,2008
[21] Gaetano Cascini, Davide Russo, Manuel Zini.Computer-Aided Patent Analysis:finding invention peculiarities.International Federation for Information Processing,2007
[22] Gaetano Cascini and Manuel Zini.Measuring patent similarity by comparing inventions functional trees.International Federation for Information Processing,.2008
[23] Daniele Regazzoni and Roberto Nani . TRIZ-Based Patent Investigation by Evaluating Inventiveness.International Federation for Information Processing,2008
[24] Gaetano Cascini and Davide Russo.Computer-aided analysis of patents and search for TRIZ contradictions.Int.J. Product Development,2007
[25] He Cong, Loh Han Tong.Pattern-oriented associative rule-based patent classi?ation.Expert Systems with Applications,2009
[26]王立群.美国的技术成熟度等级.质量与可靠性,2009(2)
[27]郭晓燕,鲍晓萍,易旺民,孙刚.总装工艺成熟度模型的建立及应用.航天器环境工程.2009(6)
[28]孙璐.医药企业信息化成熟度综合评价及其应用研究:[研究生论文].昆明理工大学,2007
[29]李秀娟.专利价值的评估影响因子.电子知识屋檐,2009
[30]李飞.基于内容挖掘的专利信息分析的方法体系及应用研究:[硕士论文].南京理工大学,2008
[31]冯青.基于专利分析的产品技术成熟度预测技术及其工具研究:[硕士论文].国防科技大学,2005
[32]刘晨.专利信息获取与分析系统关键技术研究:[硕士论文].北京工业大学,2009
[33]朱毅麟.开展航天技术成熟度研究.航天工业管理,2008
[34]翟东升,刘晨.专利信息获取分析系统设计与实现.情报分析与实现,2009(5)
[35]马苏常,刘学斌.基于TRIZ的技术成熟度预测研究及应用.天津工程师范学院学报,2007
[36]王克奇,唐和东,张曼玲.基于TRIZ的专利分析系统研究.情报科学,2009
[37]刘玉琴,汪雪峰,雷孝平.基于文本挖掘技术的专利质量评价与实证研究.2007
[38]迟少杰.预测技术发展趋势的新工具——专利分析.国际贸易促进委员会专利部.2005
[39]贾鸿翅,候亮,刘俞毅.面向TRIZ的理论知识本题建模与应用.现代制造工程,2009
[40]郭亚中,郑凯.TRIZ理论及应用介绍.科技创新导报,2010
[41]冷崇杰,项辉宇,闫晓玲.基于TRIZ理论的产品结构创新设计.制造业自动化,2010
[42]吕欣.基于TRIZ理论中39矛盾矩阵与40创新原则的产品创新设计研究.包装工程,2009
[43]曹国忠.基于TRIZ的效应研究及其软件实现:[硕士论文].河北工业大学,2003
[44]韩芳,李义杰.基于OLAP技术实现专利分析系统.计算机与信息技术. 2006(11).
[2] Vapnik V N.The nature of statistical learning theory[M] Heidelberg,Germany:Springer Verlag,1995.
[3]刘玉琴,朱东华,吕琳.基于文本挖掘技术的产品技术成熟度预测[J].计算机集成制造系统, 2008,(03) .
[4].V.N.Vapnik,A.J,Chervonenkis.Ordered risk minimization (I and II) ,Automation and Remote Control.34.1974,1226-1235 and 1403-1412.
[5] V.N.Vapnik.Estimation of dependences based on empirical data.Soringer-Verlag,Berlin,1982.
[6]于慧伶.利用TRIZ理论S曲线进化法则的人造板技术发展预测[J].林业科技, 2009,(04) .
[7]杨云霞. TRIZ理论应用中的专利侵权风险分析.情报杂志.第28卷第8期,2009(08).
[8]朱龙英.公理化设计理论及其应用研究:[博士论文].南京航空航天大学,2004
[9] Frauens M W. Improved Selection of TechnicallyAttractive Projects Using Knowledge Managementand Net Interactive Tools: [Ph. D. Dessertation].Cambridge: MIT, 2000.
[10] P.-A. Verhaegen, J. D'hondt, J. Vertommen, S. Dewulf, J. R. Duflou.Interrelating. Products through Properties via Patent Analysis.
[11] Loh Han Tong, He Cong, Shen Lixiang.Automatic classification of patent documents for TRIZ users.
[12] Loh Han Tong , He Cong, Shen Lixiang. Automatic classification of patent documents for TRIZ users. World Patent Information.2006,p 6–13.
[13] P.-A. Verhaegen, J. D hondt, J. Vertommen, S. Dewulf, J.R. Duflou. Relating properties and functions from patents to TRIZ trends. CIRP Journal of Manufacturing Science and Technology.2008.
[14] Cascini, Russo, Zini. Computer-Aided Patent Analysis: Finding Invention Peculiarities. 2007. Mann, D.L. Hands on Systematic Innovation. 2002.
[15] Gaetano Cascini , Manuel Zini. Measuring patent similarity by comparing inventions functional trees. University of Florence, Italy.2008.
[16] P.-A. Verhaegen,J. D'hondt, J. Vertommen, S. Dewulf, et al. Interrelating Products through Properties via Patent Analysis.CIRP Design Conference,2009
[17] Yanhong Liang, Dequan Gan, Yingchun Guo, and Peng Zhang.Computer-Aided Analysis of Patents for Product Technology Maturity Forecasting.International Federation for Information Processing.2009
[18] Loh Han Tong, He Cong, Shen Lixiang.Automatic classi?ation of patent documents for TRIZ users.World Patent Information,28 (2006) 6–13
[19] He Cong , Loh Han Tong.Grouping of TRIZ Inventive Principles to facilitate automatic patent classi?ation.Expert Systems with Applications.2008
[20] P.-A. Verhaegen, J. D’hondt, J. Vertommen, S. Dewulf, J.R. Du?u.Relating properties and functions from patents to TRIZ trends.CIRP Journal of Manufacturing Science and Technology,2008
[21] Gaetano Cascini, Davide Russo, Manuel Zini.Computer-Aided Patent Analysis:finding invention peculiarities.International Federation for Information Processing,2007
[22] Gaetano Cascini and Manuel Zini.Measuring patent similarity by comparing inventions functional trees.International Federation for Information Processing,.2008
[23] Daniele Regazzoni and Roberto Nani . TRIZ-Based Patent Investigation by Evaluating Inventiveness.International Federation for Information Processing,2008
[24] Gaetano Cascini and Davide Russo.Computer-aided analysis of patents and search for TRIZ contradictions.Int.J. Product Development,2007
[25] He Cong, Loh Han Tong.Pattern-oriented associative rule-based patent classi?ation.Expert Systems with Applications,2009
[26]王立群.美国的技术成熟度等级.质量与可靠性,2009(2)
[27]郭晓燕,鲍晓萍,易旺民,孙刚.总装工艺成熟度模型的建立及应用.航天器环境工程.2009(6)
[28]孙璐.医药企业信息化成熟度综合评价及其应用研究:[研究生论文].昆明理工大学,2007
[29]李秀娟.专利价值的评估影响因子.电子知识屋檐,2009
[30]李飞.基于内容挖掘的专利信息分析的方法体系及应用研究:[硕士论文].南京理工大学,2008
[31]冯青.基于专利分析的产品技术成熟度预测技术及其工具研究:[硕士论文].国防科技大学,2005
[32]刘晨.专利信息获取与分析系统关键技术研究:[硕士论文].北京工业大学,2009
[33]朱毅麟.开展航天技术成熟度研究.航天工业管理,2008
[34]翟东升,刘晨.专利信息获取分析系统设计与实现.情报分析与实现,2009(5)
[35]马苏常,刘学斌.基于TRIZ的技术成熟度预测研究及应用.天津工程师范学院学报,2007
[36]王克奇,唐和东,张曼玲.基于TRIZ的专利分析系统研究.情报科学,2009
[37]刘玉琴,汪雪峰,雷孝平.基于文本挖掘技术的专利质量评价与实证研究.2007
[38]迟少杰.预测技术发展趋势的新工具——专利分析.国际贸易促进委员会专利部.2005
[39]贾鸿翅,候亮,刘俞毅.面向TRIZ的理论知识本题建模与应用.现代制造工程,2009
[40]郭亚中,郑凯.TRIZ理论及应用介绍.科技创新导报,2010
[41]冷崇杰,项辉宇,闫晓玲.基于TRIZ理论的产品结构创新设计.制造业自动化,2010
[42]吕欣.基于TRIZ理论中39矛盾矩阵与40创新原则的产品创新设计研究.包装工程,2009
[43]曹国忠.基于TRIZ的效应研究及其软件实现:[硕士论文].河北工业大学,2003
[44]韩芳,李义杰.基于OLAP技术实现专利分析系统.计算机与信息技术. 2006(11).