中国人为源挥发性有机化合物的排放现状及未来趋势
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摘要
挥发性有机化合物(VOC)是大气臭氧和二次有机气溶胶污染的关键前体物,准确描述其排放特征是研究我国区域复合大气污染的前提,对我国未来大气污染综合控制决策具有重要意义。本研究旨在建立我国高分辨率VOC排放清单,对我国人为源VOC排放的部门、时空、物种分布及大气环境性质进行全面分析。
研究首先针对130余种排放源,建立了4级污染源分类系统;基于VOC物理结构和化学性质特征,建立了VOC物种分类系统。在此基础上,构建了可以映射到第4级排放源的活动水平、排放因子、化学组分数据库;开发了排放清单不确定性定量分析模型。由此构建了我国高分辨率VOC排放清单的编制技术方法。
生物质家庭炉灶燃烧和溶剂产品使用是重要的、与发达国家存在典型差异的VOC排放源,其VOC排放因子和化学组成存在着较大的不确定性。因此,本研究针对这两类污染源进行了测试与调研,补充完善了我国VOC排放因子数据库。一方面,建立了固定燃烧源VOC采样分析系统,通过现场测试获得了典型生物质炉灶燃烧过程的VOC排放因子和化学组成。同时,针对10类重要溶剂产品,基于系统调研计算其在不同行业、不同技术条件下的VOC排放水平和特征。
基于上述工作,建立了中国当前及2020年的人为源VOC排放清单。结果表明,2005年我国VOC排放量为19,406 kt。其中,固定燃烧源、道路移动源、溶剂产品使用源和工业过程源是主要的排放部门,分别贡献了总排放的28.3%、24.2%、17.6%和15.8%。VOC排放的空间分布很不平衡,江苏、山东、广东是排放最高的省份,排放量均超过了1,500 kt。化学组分方面,主要由烷烃(20%)、不饱和烃(21%)、苯系物(30%)构成,表现出了较高的大气氧化活性和毒性,其平均光化学臭氧生成潜势(POCP)为53.7,毒性VOC的排放比重约占30%。
预测结果表明,至2020年,在现有控制政策下,我国人为源VOC排放量将增至26,523 kt;若参考发达国家的法规标准,针对工业过程源和溶解产品使用源采取更为严格控制措施,有可能将VOC排放量维持在19,943 kt。
Volatile organic compound (VOC) is the key precursors of ozone and secondary organic aerosols. Accurate VOC emissions are the essential prerequisite to study regional air pollution complex and are of significant importance to formulate air pollution control strategy in China. This study developed the high resolution anthropogenic VOC emission inventories and analyzed their sectoral, spatial and temporal distributions, species profiles and atmospheric chemical characteristics.
Anthropogenic VOC emission sources were classified into more than 130 categories. Chemical species of VOC is categorized mainly according to their physical and atmospheric photochemical reactivity. Then an integrated model, incorporating the databases of activity information, emission factors, and chemical profiles, was established to develop the anthropogenic VOC emission inventory in China. The Monte Carlo method was used to quantitatively evaluate the uncertainties of the emission inventory.
It is found that VOC emission factors and chemical profiles of bio-fuel combustion and solvents use, which both are important emission contributors, are of large uncertainty. Therefore, field measurements and surveys on these sources were conducted to supplement and improve the VOC emission factor database in China. A VOC sampling and analysis system was designed to determine the emission factors and chemical profiles of VOC emitted from two types of bio-fuel stoves. In addition, 10 kinds of solvents were surveyed to obtain their VOC emission characteristics during use in various industries.
Current anthropogenic VOC emission inventory and future emission scenarios were compiled based on the above work. In 2005, total VOC emissions were 19,406 kt, of which the important emission sources were stationary fuel combustion, road transportation, solvent use and industrial processes, respectively accounting for 28.3%, 24.2%, 17.6% and 15.8%. The distributions of VOC emissions presented significant spatial differences. Jiangsu, Shandong, and Guangdong were the largest VOC emitters with emissions over 1,500 kt. Alkanes, alkenes and alkynes, and aromatics were the most important chemical species of VOC emissions, respectively accounting for 30%, 20%, 21%, and30% of total emissions and resulting high atmospheric oxidation activities. The Photochemical Ozone Creation Potential was about 53.7 and the percentage of toxic pollutants was about 30%.
By year 2020, national total VOC emissions will increase to 26,523 kt with the current emission legislations. By applying strict regulations to solvent uses and industrial processes as adopted in developed countries, national total VOC emissions will decrease to19,943 kt.
研究首先针对130余种排放源,建立了4级污染源分类系统;基于VOC物理结构和化学性质特征,建立了VOC物种分类系统。在此基础上,构建了可以映射到第4级排放源的活动水平、排放因子、化学组分数据库;开发了排放清单不确定性定量分析模型。由此构建了我国高分辨率VOC排放清单的编制技术方法。
生物质家庭炉灶燃烧和溶剂产品使用是重要的、与发达国家存在典型差异的VOC排放源,其VOC排放因子和化学组成存在着较大的不确定性。因此,本研究针对这两类污染源进行了测试与调研,补充完善了我国VOC排放因子数据库。一方面,建立了固定燃烧源VOC采样分析系统,通过现场测试获得了典型生物质炉灶燃烧过程的VOC排放因子和化学组成。同时,针对10类重要溶剂产品,基于系统调研计算其在不同行业、不同技术条件下的VOC排放水平和特征。
基于上述工作,建立了中国当前及2020年的人为源VOC排放清单。结果表明,2005年我国VOC排放量为19,406 kt。其中,固定燃烧源、道路移动源、溶剂产品使用源和工业过程源是主要的排放部门,分别贡献了总排放的28.3%、24.2%、17.6%和15.8%。VOC排放的空间分布很不平衡,江苏、山东、广东是排放最高的省份,排放量均超过了1,500 kt。化学组分方面,主要由烷烃(20%)、不饱和烃(21%)、苯系物(30%)构成,表现出了较高的大气氧化活性和毒性,其平均光化学臭氧生成潜势(POCP)为53.7,毒性VOC的排放比重约占30%。
预测结果表明,至2020年,在现有控制政策下,我国人为源VOC排放量将增至26,523 kt;若参考发达国家的法规标准,针对工业过程源和溶解产品使用源采取更为严格控制措施,有可能将VOC排放量维持在19,943 kt。
Volatile organic compound (VOC) is the key precursors of ozone and secondary organic aerosols. Accurate VOC emissions are the essential prerequisite to study regional air pollution complex and are of significant importance to formulate air pollution control strategy in China. This study developed the high resolution anthropogenic VOC emission inventories and analyzed their sectoral, spatial and temporal distributions, species profiles and atmospheric chemical characteristics.
Anthropogenic VOC emission sources were classified into more than 130 categories. Chemical species of VOC is categorized mainly according to their physical and atmospheric photochemical reactivity. Then an integrated model, incorporating the databases of activity information, emission factors, and chemical profiles, was established to develop the anthropogenic VOC emission inventory in China. The Monte Carlo method was used to quantitatively evaluate the uncertainties of the emission inventory.
It is found that VOC emission factors and chemical profiles of bio-fuel combustion and solvents use, which both are important emission contributors, are of large uncertainty. Therefore, field measurements and surveys on these sources were conducted to supplement and improve the VOC emission factor database in China. A VOC sampling and analysis system was designed to determine the emission factors and chemical profiles of VOC emitted from two types of bio-fuel stoves. In addition, 10 kinds of solvents were surveyed to obtain their VOC emission characteristics during use in various industries.
Current anthropogenic VOC emission inventory and future emission scenarios were compiled based on the above work. In 2005, total VOC emissions were 19,406 kt, of which the important emission sources were stationary fuel combustion, road transportation, solvent use and industrial processes, respectively accounting for 28.3%, 24.2%, 17.6% and 15.8%. The distributions of VOC emissions presented significant spatial differences. Jiangsu, Shandong, and Guangdong were the largest VOC emitters with emissions over 1,500 kt. Alkanes, alkenes and alkynes, and aromatics were the most important chemical species of VOC emissions, respectively accounting for 30%, 20%, 21%, and30% of total emissions and resulting high atmospheric oxidation activities. The Photochemical Ozone Creation Potential was about 53.7 and the percentage of toxic pollutants was about 30%.
By year 2020, national total VOC emissions will increase to 26,523 kt with the current emission legislations. By applying strict regulations to solvent uses and industrial processes as adopted in developed countries, national total VOC emissions will decrease to19,943 kt.
引文
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