中国主权信用评级问题研究
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摘要
21世纪以来各国政府大力推崇金融国际化,然而,金融开放在推进全球金融业快速整合的同时,也对各国金融安全产生了冲击。自亚洲金融危机以来,墨西哥危机、次贷危机、欧洲债务危机频频爆发,促使人们提高了对主权信用评级与金融体系安全的重视。
主权信用级别作为一个经济主体信用等级的上限,影响一国政府及境内机构在国际金融市场上的融资能力和成本。在信息不对称的金融市场上,随着国际投资的日益增多,投资者越来越需要了解目标国的主权信用情况,在这种需求的推动下,主权信用评级已经形成一个相当规模的产业。美国SEC认证的三家权威评级公司标准普尔、穆迪和惠誉评级结果的发布,对于全球市场具有巨大的影响力。
作为新型市场国家,主权评级对于中国的意义不仅仅在于扫清对外融资的障碍、或者降低对外投资风险,它兼具“内部评级”的作用,即通过建立评级模型检视影响本国信用状况的因素,从而对国家经济金融的现状有所把握,以期对潜在风险进行防范。文章通过对标准普尔、穆迪、惠誉及政治风险集团的评级模式研究,总结归纳出一系列评级要素与评级指标,并以此为依据,通过定性与定量相结合的研究方法对中国的主权信用现状进行研判,揭示我国政治、经济、财政等方面的潜在风险,继而提出防范建议。
文章最后剖析了中国信用评级业面临的风险和存在的问题,论证了建立自主信用评级体系的原则以及制度选择。中国经济社会正在快速跨入一个信用时代,规范我国信用评级业是维护我国经济金融安全,重新构建国际金融体系的必由之路。
Since 21st century, governments of different counties spare no pains to strengthen financial globalization; however, as well as promoting the rapid development and integration of global finance, financial opening impacts financial securities across the world. Since the Asian financial crisis, the Mexican crisis, the subprime mortgage crisis and European debt crisis have occurred consequently, this stimulates people to take the sovereign credit rating and financial security more seriously.
As a ceiling of credit for economic bodies, sovereign credit rating influences the ability and cost of capitalization in international financial markets for a country’s government and institutions. In financial markets with information asymmetry, the more international investments increase, the more investors need the information for target country's sovereign credit situation. Driven by this demand, sovereign credit rating has become an industry with a large scale. The influence power of the information released by the three authoritative credit rating companies which are certified by US SEC is without question.
As an emerging market country, the meaning of sovereign ratings for China lies not only in clearing obstacles for external capitalization, or reducing risk in foreign investment, but also lies in“internal rating”, which means to check the factors which impact the credit status by credit models, in order to grasp the situation of domestic economy and keep away from potential risks. By studying the credit patterns of Standard & Poor's, Moody's, Fitch and PRS, we summarize a series of rating factors and rating indicators, based on which, we conduct an empirical research on china's sovereign credit state through a combination of qualitative and quantitative research methods.
Finally, the article analyzes the risks and problems of China’s credit rating industry , demonstrates the principle of establishment of an independent credit rating system and institution choice. China's economy and society are entering a creditera rapidly, the regulation of the credit rating industry of China is a thing we must do to maintain China's economic security and reconstructing the international financial system.
主权信用级别作为一个经济主体信用等级的上限,影响一国政府及境内机构在国际金融市场上的融资能力和成本。在信息不对称的金融市场上,随着国际投资的日益增多,投资者越来越需要了解目标国的主权信用情况,在这种需求的推动下,主权信用评级已经形成一个相当规模的产业。美国SEC认证的三家权威评级公司标准普尔、穆迪和惠誉评级结果的发布,对于全球市场具有巨大的影响力。
作为新型市场国家,主权评级对于中国的意义不仅仅在于扫清对外融资的障碍、或者降低对外投资风险,它兼具“内部评级”的作用,即通过建立评级模型检视影响本国信用状况的因素,从而对国家经济金融的现状有所把握,以期对潜在风险进行防范。文章通过对标准普尔、穆迪、惠誉及政治风险集团的评级模式研究,总结归纳出一系列评级要素与评级指标,并以此为依据,通过定性与定量相结合的研究方法对中国的主权信用现状进行研判,揭示我国政治、经济、财政等方面的潜在风险,继而提出防范建议。
文章最后剖析了中国信用评级业面临的风险和存在的问题,论证了建立自主信用评级体系的原则以及制度选择。中国经济社会正在快速跨入一个信用时代,规范我国信用评级业是维护我国经济金融安全,重新构建国际金融体系的必由之路。
Since 21st century, governments of different counties spare no pains to strengthen financial globalization; however, as well as promoting the rapid development and integration of global finance, financial opening impacts financial securities across the world. Since the Asian financial crisis, the Mexican crisis, the subprime mortgage crisis and European debt crisis have occurred consequently, this stimulates people to take the sovereign credit rating and financial security more seriously.
As a ceiling of credit for economic bodies, sovereign credit rating influences the ability and cost of capitalization in international financial markets for a country’s government and institutions. In financial markets with information asymmetry, the more international investments increase, the more investors need the information for target country's sovereign credit situation. Driven by this demand, sovereign credit rating has become an industry with a large scale. The influence power of the information released by the three authoritative credit rating companies which are certified by US SEC is without question.
As an emerging market country, the meaning of sovereign ratings for China lies not only in clearing obstacles for external capitalization, or reducing risk in foreign investment, but also lies in“internal rating”, which means to check the factors which impact the credit status by credit models, in order to grasp the situation of domestic economy and keep away from potential risks. By studying the credit patterns of Standard & Poor's, Moody's, Fitch and PRS, we summarize a series of rating factors and rating indicators, based on which, we conduct an empirical research on china's sovereign credit state through a combination of qualitative and quantitative research methods.
Finally, the article analyzes the risks and problems of China’s credit rating industry , demonstrates the principle of establishment of an independent credit rating system and institution choice. China's economy and society are entering a creditera rapidly, the regulation of the credit rating industry of China is a thing we must do to maintain China's economic security and reconstructing the international financial system.
引文
[1] Sovereign Rating Criteria [J]. Emerging Markets, 1994 October: 124-127
[2] Robert B.Avery, Terrence M.Belton, Michael A.Goldberg. The Function of Ratings in Capital Markets [J]. Credit and Banking 1998 November:35-37
[3]陆昂. 20世纪90年代以来美国和日本产业政策调整评析[J].经济问题探索, 2004, (02),24-27
[4] Fitch IBCA, Sovereign Ratings, Rating Methodology[C], 2002:13-15
[5] Paolo Manasse,Nouriel Roubini,Axel Schimmelpfennig,Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises [D]. IMF Working Paper,2003, WP/03/221:4-6
[6]中国经济预测和主权评级[J].新金融, 2006, (08):17-22
[7] Moody’s Investors Service, Global Credit Analysis [C], Chapter 12: Sovereign Nations, 2005:47-51
[8] Cantor, Richard and Frank Packer, Determinants and Impact of Sovereign Credit Ratings [J]. Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Policy Review, 1996, October:1-15
[9] Jüttner D.J and J. McCarthy, Modeling a Rating Crisis [D]. Macquarie University/Sydney,2000:23-26
[10]Alexander W. Butler and Larry Fauver, Institute environment and Sovereign Credit Ratings [J]. Financial Management, 2006, autumn:53-79
[11]Benedikt Goderis, Wolf Wagner, Credit Derivatives and Sovereign Debt Crises[J]. Credit Endowment for Research in Finance,2006:7-15
[12]Cantor, Richard and Frank Packer: Determinants and Impact of Sovereign Credit Ratings [J]. Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Policy Review, 1996, October. 1-15
[13]Reisen, H. And Von Maltzan, J. Boom and Bust and Sovereign Ratings,OECD Development Centre [J], Technical Paper 1999 No. 148,12-31
[14]Hand, J., Holthausen, R., and Leftwich, R., The Effect of Bond Rating Agency Announcements on Bond and Stock Prices [J]. The Journal of Finance, 1992:733-752
[15]Kaminsky, G. And Schmukler, S. What Triggers Market Jitters? [J]. Journal of International Money and Finance,1999 June, 18:537-560
[16]Kaminsky, G. And Schmukler, S. Emerging Markets Instability: Do SovereignRatings Affect Country Risk and Stock Returns? [J]. Financial Regulation and Integration in East Asia, University of Chicago Press, 2001:35-37.
[17]曹荣湘.国家风险与主权评级:全球资本市场的评估与准入[J],经济社会体制比较,2003(05):91-98
[18]邓艾兵、武剑、闫岚.商业银行的国家风险评级与管理[J],中国金融,2002:97-103
[19]周宝义、李政丹.主权信用评级与发展中国家国际融资[J],中国金融,2002(06):55-56
[20]李福胜.国家风险:分析·评估·监控,社会科学文献出版社,2006(09):20-49
[21]厉以宁.信用体系建设与金融业发展研讨会演讲稿[N],2005(01):8-12
[22]林孝成、管七海、冯宗宪.金融机构的国家风险评估模型评介[J],当代经济科学,2000(22),No1:17-22
[23]刘莉亚.主权评级、债务困境与货币危机:对新兴市场国家的经验研究[J],世界经济,2006(12):18-27
[24]杨学进.出口信用保险——国家风险评价,经济科学出版社[M],2004(4):44-49
[25]连秀花、张金水.国家风险与重新安排债务的概率-亚洲5国的实证研究[J],统计研究,2005(10):50-55
[26]张金水、连秀花.国家经济风险评价模型的一种改进[J],清华大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2005(20):70-74
[27]李义超,宋玲.中国主权债务的现状分析及其风险防范对策[J],经管论坛,2010(9):9-13
[28]丛琳、侯佳.对国家主权信用评级的决定因素的实证研究[J],理论与实践,2006(5):27-28
[29]Daniel Kaufmann, Brookings Institution,Aart Kraay and Massimo Mastruzzi, World Bank The Worldwide Governance Indicators: Methodology and Analytical Issues, 2010, September:39-76
[30]日本国际中心,中国经济预测和主权评级[R],2006(08):6-8
[31]江涌.国际三大信用评级公司透视[J],求是,2006(09):50-62
[32]邬润扬.资信评级方法[M],中国方正出版社,2005(04):43-44
[33]岳瑞芳、丛亚平.评级巨鳄“盯紧”中国藏玄机[J].瞭望, 2006(35):7-15
[34]朱全涛.国家风险和主权评级[J].统计与决策, 2004(06):39-41
[35]康英、薛惠锋.国家信用风险评估模型[J].西安工业大学学报, 2009(04):21-31
[36]张金杰.国家风险的形成、评估及中国对策[J].世界经济与政治, 2008(03):7-13
[37]中国需要自己的“国家风险评级标准”[J].国际融资, 2007(01):30-42
[38]马素红.国际评级公司对中国银行业评级情况述评[J].中国城市金融, 2004(02):12-16
[39]慧卿.从“投机级”向“投资级”过渡[J].中国商界(上半月), 2008(06):49-53
[40]唐友伟.从欧洲主权债务危机看信用评级机构监管[J].中国房地产金融, 2010(10):44-47
[41]赵素萍、赵飞.主权信用评级问题研究[J].上海金融学院学报, 2010(06),90-99
[42]黄余送、黄光磊.主权信用评级与金融安全[J].经济理论与经济管理, 2010(10),12-21
[2] Robert B.Avery, Terrence M.Belton, Michael A.Goldberg. The Function of Ratings in Capital Markets [J]. Credit and Banking 1998 November:35-37
[3]陆昂. 20世纪90年代以来美国和日本产业政策调整评析[J].经济问题探索, 2004, (02),24-27
[4] Fitch IBCA, Sovereign Ratings, Rating Methodology[C], 2002:13-15
[5] Paolo Manasse,Nouriel Roubini,Axel Schimmelpfennig,Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises [D]. IMF Working Paper,2003, WP/03/221:4-6
[6]中国经济预测和主权评级[J].新金融, 2006, (08):17-22
[7] Moody’s Investors Service, Global Credit Analysis [C], Chapter 12: Sovereign Nations, 2005:47-51
[8] Cantor, Richard and Frank Packer, Determinants and Impact of Sovereign Credit Ratings [J]. Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Policy Review, 1996, October:1-15
[9] Jüttner D.J and J. McCarthy, Modeling a Rating Crisis [D]. Macquarie University/Sydney,2000:23-26
[10]Alexander W. Butler and Larry Fauver, Institute environment and Sovereign Credit Ratings [J]. Financial Management, 2006, autumn:53-79
[11]Benedikt Goderis, Wolf Wagner, Credit Derivatives and Sovereign Debt Crises[J]. Credit Endowment for Research in Finance,2006:7-15
[12]Cantor, Richard and Frank Packer: Determinants and Impact of Sovereign Credit Ratings [J]. Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Policy Review, 1996, October. 1-15
[13]Reisen, H. And Von Maltzan, J. Boom and Bust and Sovereign Ratings,OECD Development Centre [J], Technical Paper 1999 No. 148,12-31
[14]Hand, J., Holthausen, R., and Leftwich, R., The Effect of Bond Rating Agency Announcements on Bond and Stock Prices [J]. The Journal of Finance, 1992:733-752
[15]Kaminsky, G. And Schmukler, S. What Triggers Market Jitters? [J]. Journal of International Money and Finance,1999 June, 18:537-560
[16]Kaminsky, G. And Schmukler, S. Emerging Markets Instability: Do SovereignRatings Affect Country Risk and Stock Returns? [J]. Financial Regulation and Integration in East Asia, University of Chicago Press, 2001:35-37.
[17]曹荣湘.国家风险与主权评级:全球资本市场的评估与准入[J],经济社会体制比较,2003(05):91-98
[18]邓艾兵、武剑、闫岚.商业银行的国家风险评级与管理[J],中国金融,2002:97-103
[19]周宝义、李政丹.主权信用评级与发展中国家国际融资[J],中国金融,2002(06):55-56
[20]李福胜.国家风险:分析·评估·监控,社会科学文献出版社,2006(09):20-49
[21]厉以宁.信用体系建设与金融业发展研讨会演讲稿[N],2005(01):8-12
[22]林孝成、管七海、冯宗宪.金融机构的国家风险评估模型评介[J],当代经济科学,2000(22),No1:17-22
[23]刘莉亚.主权评级、债务困境与货币危机:对新兴市场国家的经验研究[J],世界经济,2006(12):18-27
[24]杨学进.出口信用保险——国家风险评价,经济科学出版社[M],2004(4):44-49
[25]连秀花、张金水.国家风险与重新安排债务的概率-亚洲5国的实证研究[J],统计研究,2005(10):50-55
[26]张金水、连秀花.国家经济风险评价模型的一种改进[J],清华大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2005(20):70-74
[27]李义超,宋玲.中国主权债务的现状分析及其风险防范对策[J],经管论坛,2010(9):9-13
[28]丛琳、侯佳.对国家主权信用评级的决定因素的实证研究[J],理论与实践,2006(5):27-28
[29]Daniel Kaufmann, Brookings Institution,Aart Kraay and Massimo Mastruzzi, World Bank The Worldwide Governance Indicators: Methodology and Analytical Issues, 2010, September:39-76
[30]日本国际中心,中国经济预测和主权评级[R],2006(08):6-8
[31]江涌.国际三大信用评级公司透视[J],求是,2006(09):50-62
[32]邬润扬.资信评级方法[M],中国方正出版社,2005(04):43-44
[33]岳瑞芳、丛亚平.评级巨鳄“盯紧”中国藏玄机[J].瞭望, 2006(35):7-15
[34]朱全涛.国家风险和主权评级[J].统计与决策, 2004(06):39-41
[35]康英、薛惠锋.国家信用风险评估模型[J].西安工业大学学报, 2009(04):21-31
[36]张金杰.国家风险的形成、评估及中国对策[J].世界经济与政治, 2008(03):7-13
[37]中国需要自己的“国家风险评级标准”[J].国际融资, 2007(01):30-42
[38]马素红.国际评级公司对中国银行业评级情况述评[J].中国城市金融, 2004(02):12-16
[39]慧卿.从“投机级”向“投资级”过渡[J].中国商界(上半月), 2008(06):49-53
[40]唐友伟.从欧洲主权债务危机看信用评级机构监管[J].中国房地产金融, 2010(10):44-47
[41]赵素萍、赵飞.主权信用评级问题研究[J].上海金融学院学报, 2010(06),90-99
[42]黄余送、黄光磊.主权信用评级与金融安全[J].经济理论与经济管理, 2010(10),12-21